Showing posts with label Wooden Award. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wooden Award. Show all posts

Friday, February 25, 2022

National and Conference MVPs and Best Players

If I had to vote today for National Player of the Year, it would be a choice between the Most Valuable Player in the Country, Iowa's Keegan Murray, and the best player in the country, Gonzaga's Chet Holmgren. 

MVP and POY are not the same thing. A freshman heading into March Madness on the way to the NBA Draft is often the best player in time for the tournament. However, the most valuable player over the course of the season is rarely a freshmen - but an upper classman who does not take all the bad shots or force turnovers trying to wedge between two defenders like even the greatest freshman do for much of the season.

That is why Murray has improved Iowa by 12.49 points per game at www.valueaddbasketball.com to make him the most valuable player in the season, while Holmgren is the top freshman at 11th (9.89).

The following is the list of the Most Valuable Player and Best Freshman in each conference, with a link to the 25 MVPs and top freshmen in each conference at www.valueaddbasketball.com, the a list of the best in the nation.

6 Top Rated Conferences (alphabetical order)

 Other 22 Conferences (alphabetical order)

And here is the list of the top players and freshman in the country in the same form you will see for each conference listed above.


Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Best Point Guards in College Basketball This Year

Note: While www.kenpom.com and www.valueaddbasketball.com analytics flagging Chattanooga's Malachi Smith as the 2nd best small forward in the country, we have been informed that in fact he plays point guard - where he would also rank as the 2nd best player at the country barely behind Villanova's Collin Gillespie. We will update for his next post, but we would still consider Smith a 2nd Team All-American at this point - just at a different position. (The analytics are thrown off because he grabs so many defensive rebounds that he appears to be a small forward rather than a point guard statistically).

In Value Add Basketball we consider the team's "point guard" the player who typically has the most  assists, and typically is the shortest player on the floor and with fewer defensive rebounds, blocked shots and less height. A point guard has the toughest job because he is the player who needs to handle it all the way down the court and create his own shots or create shots for others by working the ball inside to a center or power forward, who will thus typically have even better raw numbers than a great point guard. (for a summary of the top players at each position, click here).

Because www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates how many points per game a player improves his team compared to if a typical replacement player took his place, the raw value add is adjusted by position since the replacement player would be at the same position. Therefore, once the formulas are run, and power guard's raw value add is increased by multiplying it by 1.05 to get the result you see below and at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

In general, freshmen guards in particular make so many mistakes (turnovers, bad shots etc.) the first half of the season that they do not rank nearly as high as more experienced guards. Nowhere is this more true than at point guard.

However, they tend to improve more at the end of the season, so we watch for breakout freshmen first when looking at brackets. Therefore we start with the 10 most valuable freshmen pointing guards in college basketball, and perhaps the most incredible finding in these systems is that the top two freshman point guard in all of college basketball both play for Tennessee. Zakai Zeigler plays the point whenever he is in the game based on analytics - and when he sits Kennedy Chandler moves from shooting guard to point guard and is even better. 

Chandler was unbelievable in the recent double digit win against Kentucky, scoring 17 points despite taking only 9 shots, and dishing out 6 assists without a single turnover. Zeigler has four steals in that game, and scored 14 points only taking eight shots. With the importance of guards able to handle the ball in March Madness, this duo could be scary good in the tournament.

RnkTop 10 Freshman PGTeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
23Kennedy Chandler #1Tennessee6.08SEC6'0Fr
52Zakai Zeigler #5Tennessee4.92SEC5'9"Fr
58Malachi Smith #11Dayton4.71A106'0Fr
60Jalen Cook #3Tulane4.54Amer6'0Fr
66Jao Ituka #10Marist4.22MAAC6'1"Fr
94Kino Lilly #10Brown3.57Ivy6'0Fr
113Kerr Kriisa #25Arizona3.19P126'3"Fr
116Ajay Mitchell #13UC Santa Barbara3.14BW6'4"Fr
134Jeremiah Williams #25Temple2.81Amer6'5"Fr
136Walter Clayton #13Iona2.77MAAC6'2"Fr

If anyone had any doubts about Collin Gillespie being the top point guard in the country, they should watch how he has brought Villanova surging back into the top 10 - and the difference it made last year when he was injured for March Madness. It is a very close battle for 2nd Team All-American Point Guard between Mississippi State's Iverson Molinar and SMU's Kendric Davis. 

It may look strange to have Wyoming's super star Hunter Maldonado listed at point guard despite standing 6-foot-7, but he is in the top half percent of all players in assist rate - dishing and making everyone else score for a team that appears to be heading to March Madness.

 
RnkTop Point Guards (1)TeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
1Collin Gillespie #2Villanova9.33BE6'3"Sr
2Iverson Molinar #1Mississippi St.8.68SEC6'3"Jr
3Kendric Davis #3SMU8.54Amer6'0Sr
4Hunter Maldonado #24Wyoming8.08MWC6'7"Sr
5Jamaree Bouyea #1San Francisco8.06WCC6'2"Sr
6Payton Willis #0Minnesota7.92B106'4"Sr
7Tylor Perry #5North Texas7.77CUSA5'11"Jr
8Trent Frazier #1Illinois7.77B106'2"Sr
9Baylor Scheierman #3South Dakota St.7.45Sum6'6"So
10Will Richardson #0Oregon7.44P126'5"Sr
11RJ Cole #2Connecticut7.35BE6'1"Sr
12Mark Sears #1Ohio6.99MAC6'1"So
13Tyger Campbell #10UCLA6.92P125'11"Jr
14Jacob Gilyard #0Richmond6.71A105'9"Sr
15Isaiah Stevens #4Colorado St.6.69MWC6'0Jr
16Jalen Williams #24Santa Clara6.59WCC6'6"Jr
17Foster Loyer #0Davidson6.55A106'0Jr
18Jamari Wheeler #55Ohio St.6.53B106'1"Sr
19Andrew Nembhard #3Gonzaga6.49WCC6'5"Sr
20Michael Flowers #12Washington St.6.41P126'1"Sr
21Sincere Carry #3Kent St.6.3MAC6'1"Jr
22Jordan Goldwire #0Oklahoma6.19B126'3"Sr
23Kennedy Chandler #1Tennessee6.08SEC6'0Fr
24Jovan Blacksher #10Grand Canyon6.07WAC5'11"Jr
25Javon Freeman-Liberty #4DePaul6.06BE6'4"Sr
26RJ Davis #4North Carolina5.93ACC6'0So
27Wendell Green #1Auburn5.83SEC5'11"So
28Scotty Pippen #2Vanderbilt5.74SEC6'3"Jr
29Ben Shungu #24Vermont5.74AE6'2"Sr
30Michael Devoe #0Georgia Tech5.65ACC6'5"Sr
31Markquis Nowell #1Kansas St.5.61B125'8"Jr
32Jordan Walker #10UAB5.57CUSA5'11"Jr
33Kevion Nolan #3Jacksonville5.55ASun6'2"Jr
34Darius McGhee #2Liberty5.5ASun5'9"Sr
35Souley Boum #0UTEP5.49CUSA6'3"Jr
36Jamal Shead #1Houston5.41Amer6'1"So
37James Akinjo #11Baylor5.41B126'1"Sr
38Marcus Domask #1Southern Illinois5.38MVC6'6"Jr
39Tristen Newton #2East Carolina5.27Amer6'5"So
40Marcus Shaver #10Boise St.5.2MWC6'2"Sr
41Justice Hill #14Murray St.5.18OVC6'0So
42Bryce Aiken #1Seton Hall5.12BE6'0Sr
43Max Abmas #3Oral Roberts5.09Sum6'0Jr
44Jared Bynum #4Providence5.06BE5'10"Jr
45Darrion Trammell #2Seattle5.05WAC5'10"So
46Noah Kirkwood #10Harvard5.01Ivy6'7"Sr
47Braden Norris #4Loyola Chicago4.99MVC6'0Jr
48AJ Green #4Northern Iowa4.98MVC6'4"Jr
49KD Johnson #0Auburn4.97SEC6'0So
50Jahmir Young #1Charlotte4.96CUSA6'1"Jr

Top Shooting Guards in College Basketball This Season

 In Value Add Basketball we consider the team's "shooting guard" the player who behind only the team's point guard in assists, but compared to the other three players on the court typically has fewer defensive rebounds, blocked shots and less height. A great center or power forward will typically have even better raw numbers than a great point guard, because the guards typically need to get the ball to a power forward or center close to the basket for a closer shot.  (for a summary of the top players at each position, click here).

Because www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates how many points per game a player improves his team compared to if a typical replacement player took his place, the raw value add is adjusted by position since the replacement player would be at the same position. Therefore, once the formulas are run, and shooting guard's raw value add is increased by multiplying it by 1.10 to get the result you see below and at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

In general, freshmen guards in particular make so many mistakes (turnovers, bad shots etc.) the first half of the season that they do not rank nearly as high as more experienced guards. However, they tend to improve more at the end of the season, so we watch for breakout freshmen first when looking at brackets. Therefore we start with the 10 most valuable freshmen shooting guards in college basketball, starting with the best freshman shooting guard TyTy Washington of Kentucky. His value add of 6.34 indicates there is a better than 50/50 chance Kentucky would have LOST any game that they won by fewer than seven points. 

In his case, he improves the Kentucky's offense by 4.90 points per game, while his defensive rating of -1.44 indicates he takes three to four points more away from the opposing team then a typical replacement shooting guard. Here are the most valuable 10 freshmen power forwards through games of February 15. Arizona's Dalen Terry is one of three Arizona players we would name to our All-American freshmen team - and his defense of -2.35 is by far the best for any shooting guard.

RnkTop Freshmen SGTeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
15TyTy Washington #3Kentucky6.34SEC6'3"Fr
20Dalen Terry #4Arizona5.65P126'7"Fr
38Trevor Keels #1Duke4.72ACC6'4"Fr
50Terquavion Smith #0N.C. State4.35ACC6'4"Fr
60Steele Venters #2Eastern Washington4.18BSky6'7"Fr
62Reyne Smith #2Charleston4.06CAA6'2"Fr
65Nate Heise #0Northern Iowa4.02MVC6'4"Fr
67Malaki Branham #22Ohio St.4B106'5"Fr
71Brandon Murray #0LSU3.95SEC6'5"Fr
73JD Davison #3Alabama3.91SEC6'3"Fr

Top overall SG

One reason we love running these numbers is to find truly elite players who will not be noticed because their team either does not get enough TV coverage or is just not winning enough games to draw attention. The biggest case this year comes from teh 13-10 Washington in the Pac-12. We calculte that Washington would be 4-19 instead of 13-10 if Terrell Brown were not on the team, and for us that makes him the truly deserving 1st team All-American shooting guard who will not get any voters for it.

The race for 2nd and 3rd team All-American shooting buard is much closer.  TyTy Washington should be considered because it is truly unusual for a freshman guard to be anywhere near this high - but K-State, St. John's, BYU, Tennessee and the player who may have improved his team the most this year from last year - Alondes Williams of Wake Forest.
 
RnkTop Shooting Guards (2)TeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
1Terrell Brown #23Washington10.42P126'3"Sr
2Nijel Pack #24Kansas St.9.39B126'0So
3Posh Alexander #0St. John's8.8BE6'0So
4Alex Barcello #13BYU8.69WCC6'2"Sr
5Santiago Vescovi #25Tennessee8.65SEC6'3"Jr
6Alondes Williams #31Wake Forest8.15ACC6'5"Sr
7Garrett Sturtz #3Drake7.66MVC6'3"Sr
8Justin Moore #5Villanova7.53BE6'4"Jr
9Jaden Ivey #23Purdue7.05B106'4"So
10Brad Davison #34Wisconsin6.97B106'4"Sr
11Ryan Rollins #5Toledo6.72MAC6'4"So
12JD Notae #1Arkansas6.66SEC6'2"Sr
13Jaden Shackelford #5Alabama6.63SEC6'3"Jr
14Josh Jefferson #11Middle Tennessee6.39CUSA6'2"Sr
15TyTy Washington #3Kentucky6.34SEC6'3"Fr
16Eli Brooks #55Michigan6.17B106'1"Sr
17Umoja Gibson #2Oklahoma6B126'1"Sr
18Alfonso Plummer #11Illinois5.73B106'1"Sr
19Hunter Cattoor #0Virginia Tech5.71ACC6'3"Jr
20Dalen Terry #4Arizona5.65P126'7"Fr
21Reece Beekman #2Virginia5.62ACC6'3"So
22Buddy Boeheim #35Syracuse5.56ACC6'6"Sr
23Adam Flagler #10Baylor5.5B126'3"Jr
24Michael Jones #13Davidson5.49A106'5"Jr
25Grayson Murphy #2Belmont5.46OVC6'3"Sr
26Amorie Archibald #3Louisiana Tech5.41CUSA6'3"Sr
27Gibson Jimerson #24Saint Louis5.4A106'5"Fr
28Mason Archambault #11South Dakota5.25Sum6'0Sr
29Sean McNeil #22West Virginia5.23B126'3"Sr
30Rasir Bolton #45Gonzaga5.11WCC6'3"Sr
31Jabari Rice #10New Mexico St.5.05WAC6'4"Jr
32D'Moi Hodge #55Cleveland St.5.03Horz6'4"Sr
33Spencer Jones #14Stanford4.96P126'7"Jr
34James Reese V #0South Carolina4.93SEC6'4"Sr
35Rudi Williams #3Coastal Carolina4.92SB6'2"Sr
36Desmond Cambridge #4Nevada4.88MWC6'4"Sr
37Cameron Tyson #5Seattle4.87WAC6'2"So
38Trevor Keels #1Duke4.72ACC6'4"Fr
39Davion Warren #2Texas Tech4.7B126'6"Sr
40CJ Fleming #25Bellarmine4.7ASun6'0Sr
41Joe Bryant #4Norfolk St.4.62MEAC6'1"Sr
42Logan Johnson #0Saint Mary's4.54WCC6'2"Sr
43Demaree King #1Jacksonville St.4.52ASun6'0Jr
44Caleb Grill #2Iowa St.4.42B126'3"Jr
45Courtney Ramey #3Texas4.41B126'3"Sr
46Alex Hunter #10Furman4.41SC5'11"Sr
47Isaiah Wong #2Miami FL4.4ACC6'3"So
48Michael Forrest #11Florida Atlantic4.37CUSA6'1"Jr
49Tyler Harris #14Memphis4.36Amer5'9"Sr
50Terquavion Smith #0N.C. State4.35ACC6'4"Fr

Top Small Forwards in College Basketball This Year

Note: While www.kenpom.com and www.valueaddbasketball.com analytics flagging Chattanooga's Malachi Smith as the 2nd best small forward in the country, we have been informed that in fact he plays point guard - where he would also rank as the 2nd best player at the country barely behind Villanova's Collin Gillespie. We will update for his next post, but we would still consider Smith a 2nd Team All-American at this point - just at a different position. (The analytics are thrown off because he grabs so many defensive rebounds that he appears to be a small forward rather than a point guard statistically).


 In Value Add Basketball we consider the team's "small forward" the player who has some combination of more defensive rebounds, blocked shots and height than two guards on the team, and typically more assists and steals then the two players on the team we consider the center and power forward. In many cases in modern basketball this is really a third guard, but either way it is the "3" position on the court.  (for a summary of the top players at each position, click here).

Because www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates how many points per game a player improves his team compared to if a typical replacement player took his place, the raw value add is adjusted by position since the replacement player would be at the same position. Therefore, once the formulas are run, and other positions are adjusted, but the average Small Forward actually is right about the average overall player, so their calculations are not adjusted before being entered at  at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

In general, freshmen make so many mistakes (turnovers, bad shots etc.) the first half of the season that they do not rank nearly as high as more experienced players. However, they tend to improve more at the end of the season, so we watch for breakout freshmen first when looking at brackets. Therefore we start with the 10 most valuable freshmen small forwards in college basketball, starting with one of three Arizona players we would put on the Freshman All-American team - Bennedict Mathurin - who improves his team by 7.32 points per game. This means Arizona would have LOST any game that they won by fewer than seven points if he had not played..

In his case, he improves the Arizona's offense by 5.55 points per game, while his defensive rating of -1.77 indicates he takes one to two points more away from the opposing team then a typical replacement small forward. Here are the most valuable 10 freshmen small forwards through games of February 15.

RnkTop Freshmen Small ForwardsTeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
9Bennedict Mathurin #0Arizona7.32P126'6"Fr
17Kendall Brown #2Baylor6.07B126'8"Fr
38Ricky Council #4Wichita St.4.97Amer6'6"Fr
53Alijah Martin #15Florida Atlantic4.41CUSA6'2"Fr
56Jadon Jones #12Long Beach St.4.4BW6'5"Fr
90Zeke Mayo #2South Dakota St.3.44Sum6'3"Fr
93Houston Mallette #0Pepperdine3.41WCC6'5"Fr
100Caleb Houstan #22Michigan3.28B106'8"Fr
101Bryce McGowens #5Nebraska3.27B106'7"Fr
105Ra'Heim Moss #0Toledo3.21MAC6'4"Fr

If you were picking an All-American team based by position, the Small Forward or "3" spot would be the toughest choice. Mathurin certainly is close enough to the top players to be considered due to freshmen surging at the end of the year. However, Wisconsin's Johnny Davis, San Diego State's Matt Bradley, Chattanooga's Malachi Smith, Loyola's Lucas Williamson and Iowa State's Izaiah Brockingham could all be serious considered as the most valuable small forward in college basketball.
 
RnkTop Overall Small Forwards (3)TeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
1Matt Bradley #3San Diego St.9.3MWC6'4"Sr
2Malachi Smith #13Chattanooga8.84SC6'4"So
3Ochai Agbaji #30Kansas8.6B126'5"Sr
4Lucas Williamson #1Loyola Chicago8.28MVC6'4"Sr
5Johnny Davis #1Wisconsin7.9B106'5"So
6Izaiah Brockington #1Iowa St.7.79B126'4"Sr
7Keon Ellis #14Alabama7.48SEC6'6"Sr
8Wendell Moore #0Duke7.34ACC6'5"Jr
9Bennedict Mathurin #0Arizona7.32P126'6"Fr
10Darryl Morsell #32Marquette7.04BE6'5"Sr
11George Papas #5Monmouth7.04MAAC6'5"Sr
12Tevin Brown #10Murray St.6.92OVC6'5"Jr
13Isiaih Mosley #1Missouri St.6.58MVC6'5"Jr
14Julian Strawther #0Gonzaga6.49WCC6'7"So
15Kameron McGusty #23Miami FL6.4ACC6'5"Sr
16Davonte Gaines #3George Mason6.08A106'7"Jr
17Kendall Brown #2Baylor6.07B126'8"Fr
18Colby Jones #3Xavier6.04BE6'6"So
19Mark Smith #13Kansas St.6.04B126'4"Sr
20Jules Bernard #1UCLA5.94P126'7"Sr
21Kyler Edwards #11Houston5.91Amer6'4"Sr
22Taz Sherman #12West Virginia5.88B126'4"Sr
23Teddy Allen #0New Mexico St.5.85WAC6'6"Jr
24Johnny Juzang #3UCLA5.78P126'7"Jr
25Cam Spencer #12Loyola MD5.78Pat6'4"Jr
26Aaron Estrada #4Hofstra5.74CAA6'3"Jr
27Daylen Kountz #1Northern Colorado5.7BSky6'4"Sr
28Hakim Hart #13Maryland5.66B106'8"Jr
29Tyler Burton #3Richmond5.59A106'7"Jr
30De'Monte Buckingham #10UNC Greensboro5.49SC6'4"Sr
31Brandon Slater #3Villanova5.45BE6'7"Sr
32Sasha Stefanovic #55Purdue5.37B106'5"Sr
33Adrian Delph #20Appalachian St.5.3SB6'3"Sr
34Kellan Grady #31Kentucky5.13SEC6'5"Sr
35Drew Peterson #13USC5.07P126'9"Jr
36Tanner Holden #2Wright St.5.04Horz6'6"Jr
37Drake Jeffries #0Wyoming5.01MWC6'5"Sr
38Ricky Council #4Wichita St.4.97Amer6'6"Fr
39Charles Pride #5Bryant4.92NEC6'4"Jr
40Hyunjung Lee #1Davidson4.88A106'7"Jr
41Andrew Jones #1Texas4.88B126'4"Sr
42Chuck O'Bannon #5TCU4.87B126'6"Sr
43Taze Moore #4Houston4.84Amer6'5"Sr
44Gabe Brown #44Michigan St.4.77B106'8"Sr
45Jared Rhoden #14Seton Hall4.76BE6'6"Sr
46Ethan Wright #14Princeton4.61Ivy6'4"Sr
47Erik Stevenson #10South Carolina4.6SEC6'4"Sr
48David Jones #32DePaul4.59BE6'6"So
49Alex O'Connell #5Creighton4.53BE6'6"Sr
50Kane Williams #12Georgia St.4.52SB6'4"Sr

Best Power Forwards in College Basketball This Season

 In Value Add Basketball we consider the team's "power forward" the player who behind the team's "center" has some combination of the most defensive rebounds, blocked shots and height, but typically the fewest assists and steals. A great center or power forward will typically have even better raw numbers than a great point guard, because the guards typically need to get the ball to a power forward or center close to the basket for a closer shot.  (for a summary of the top players at each position, click here).

Because www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates how many points per game a player improves his team compared to if a typical replacement player took his place, the raw value add is adjusted by position since the replacement player would be at the same position. Therefore, once the formulas are run, and power forward's raw value add is lowered by multiplying it by 0.95 to get the result you see below and at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

In general, freshmen make so many mistakes (turnovers, bad shots etc.) the first half of the season that they do not rank nearly as high as more experienced players. However, they tend to improve more at the end of the season, so we watch for breakout freshmen first when looking at brackets. Therefore we start with the 10 most valuable freshmen centers in college basketball, starting with the most talented future NBA prospect, Auburn's Jabari Smith, who improves Auburn by 7.14 points per game - meaning there is a better than 50/50 chance Auburn would have LOST any game that they won by fewer than seven points. This calculations were run before Auburn's win against Vanderbilt Wednesday, during which Smith had his first 30-point game, so he is gaining value. 

In his case, he improves the Auburn offense by 4.44 points per game, while his defensive rating of -2.70 indicates he takes three to four points more away from the opposing team then a typical replacement power forward. Here are the most valuable 10 freshmen power forwards through games of February 15.

RnkTop Freshmen Power ForwardsTeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
7Jabari Smith #10Auburn7.14SEC6'10"Fr
11Paolo Banchero #5Duke6.69ACC6'10"Fr
18Justin Lewis #10Marquette6.28BE6'7"Fr
23Tyson Degenhart #2Boise St.6.13MWC6'7"Fr
27Azuolas Tubelis #10Arizona5.9P126'11"Fr
39Dillon Jones #2Weber St.5.35BSky6'6"Fr
44Sadaidriene Hall #3Stephen F. Austin5.12WAC6'5"Fr
46Aboubacar Traore #25Long Beach St.4.96BW6'5"Fr
51Jalen Wilson #10Kansas4.77B126'8"So
52Keshad Johnson #0San Diego St.4.68MWC6'7"Jr

Top Overall Power Forwards (4)

A voter would certainly be justified in placing Smith, likely the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft, as the 1st Team All-American Power Forward. However, if the entire season including early games were rated evenly, the 1st and 2nd Team All-American should really go to two Big Ten stars. Ohio State's EJ Liddell may have been the most valuable player over the course of the last two seasons, while Keegan Murray of Iowa has been able to explode now that his teammate and National Player of the Year Luka Garza has graduated.

RnkTop Freshmen Power ForwardsTeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
1Keegan Murray #15Iowa10.86B106'8"So
2EJ Liddell #32Ohio St.9.93B106'7"Jr
3Justin Bean #34Utah St.9.69MWC6'7"Sr
4Tari Eason #13LSU9.25SEC6'8"So
5David Roddy #21Colorado St.8.84MWC6'6"Jr
6Christian Braun #2Kansas7.54B126'6"Jr
7Jabari Smith #10Auburn7.14SEC6'10"Fr
8Vince Williams #10VCU6.9A106'6"Sr
9Jaime Jaquez #24UCLA6.81P126'7"Jr
10Jake LaRavia #0Wake Forest6.77ACC6'8"Jr
11Paolo Banchero #5Duke6.69ACC6'10"Fr
12Race Thompson #25Indiana6.49B106'8"Jr
13Dane Goodwin #23Notre Dame6.49ACC6'6"Jr
14Paul Atkinson #20Notre Dame6.45ACC6'9"Sr
15Timmy Allen #0Texas6.44B126'6"Sr
16Drew Timme #2Gonzaga6.41WCC6'10"Jr
17Fabian White #35Houston6.36Amer6'8"Sr
18Justin Lewis #10Marquette6.28BE6'7"Fr
19Alex Morales #2Wagner6.28NEC6'6"Sr
20Dereon Seabron #1N.C. State6.25ACC6'7"So
21Ryan Hawkins #44Creighton6.24BE6'7"Sr
22Justyn Mutts #25Virginia Tech6.17ACC6'7"Sr
23Tyson Degenhart #2Boise St.6.13MWC6'7"Fr
24Bryce Hamilton #13UNLV6.13MWC6'4"Sr
25Aher Uguak #30Loyola Chicago6.07MVC6'7"Sr
26Abu Kigab #24Boise St.5.96MWC6'7"Sr
27Azuolas Tubelis #10Arizona5.9P126'11"Fr
28Anthony Holland #25Fresno St.5.9MWC6'5"Jr
29Collin Welp #40UC Irvine5.88BW6'9"Sr
30Ron Harper #24Rutgers5.81B106'6"Sr
31Jeriah Horne #41Tulsa5.81Amer6'7"Sr
32Keshawn Justice #14Santa Clara5.76WCC6'7"Sr
33Jalen Hill #1Oklahoma5.62B126'6"Jr
34Anton Watson #22Gonzaga5.6WCC6'8"Jr
35Jayden Gardner #1Virginia5.6ACC6'6"Sr
36Noah Horchler #14Providence5.59BE6'8"Sr
37Marcus Weathers #50SMU5.49Amer6'5"Sr
38Ben Vander Plas #5Ohio5.46MAC6'8"Sr
39Dillon Jones #2Weber St.5.35BSky6'6"Fr
40Taylor Funk #33Saint Joseph's5.28A106'8"Sr
41Brady Manek #45North Carolina5.27ACC6'9"Sr
42Jalen Bridges #11West Virginia5.26B126'7"So
43Isaac Mushila #10Texas A&M Corpus Chris5.14Slnd6'5"Jr
44Sadaidriene Hall #3Stephen F. Austin5.12WAC6'5"Fr
45Jermaine Samuels #23Villanova5.08BE6'7"Sr
46Aboubacar Traore #25Long Beach St.4.96BW6'5"Fr
47Julian Champagnie #2St. John's4.93BE6'8"Jr
48Jabari Walker #12Colorado4.89P126'9"So
49Kris Murray #24Iowa4.8B106'8"So
50Jalen Adaway #33St. Bonaventure4.79A106'5"Sr


Top College Basketball Centers this Season

In Value Add Basketball we consider the teams "center" the player who has some combination of the most defensive rebounds, blocked shots and height, but typically the fewest assists and steals. A great center will typically have even better raw numbers than a great point guard, because the guards typically need to get the ball to the center close to the basket for a closer shot - even though not nearly as many centers play with their "back to the basket" like they did for most of the history of basketball.  (for a summary of the top players at each position, click here).

Because www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates how many points per game a player improves his team compared to if a typical replacement player took his place, the raw value add is adjusted by position since the replacement player would be at the same position. Therefore, once the formulas are run, and centers raw value add is lowered by multiplying it by 0.9 to get the result you see below and at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Top 10 most valuable centers are listed below. in general freshmen make so many mistakes (turnovers, bad shots etc.) the first half of the season that they do not rank nearly as high as more experienced players. However, they tend to improve more at the end of the season, so we watch for breakout freshmen first when looking at brackets. Therefore we start with the 10 most valuable freshmen centers in college basketball, starting with the Zags Chet Holmgrem who improves Gonzaga by 8.52 points per game - meaning there is a better than 50/50 chance the Zags would have LOST any game that they won by fewer than eight points.

In his case, he improves the Zags' offense by 5.04 points per game, while his defensive rating of -3.48 indicates he takes three to four points more away from the opposing team then a typical replacement center. Here are the most valuable 10 freshmen centers through games of February 15.
 
RnkTop Freshmen CentersTeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
5Chet Holmgren #34Gonzaga8.52WCC7'0Fr
8Norchad Omier #15Arkansas St.7.79SB6'7"Fr
12Kenneth Lofton #2Louisiana Tech7.03CUSA6'7"Fr
18Johni Broome #4Morehead St.6.68OVC6'10"Fr
34DaRon Holmes #15Dayton5.84A106'10"Fr
57Fousseyni Traore #45BYU4.91WCC6'6"Fr
80Jalen Duren #2Memphis4.27Amer6'11"Fr
95Charles Bediako #10Alabama3.92SEC7'0Fr
111Eddie Lampkin #4TCU3.67B126'11"Fr
112Oso Ighodaro #13Marquette3.65BE6'9"Fr

Top 50 Centers Overall

In true value, our calculations indicate the 1st Team All-American so far should come from Kentucky, and Holgrem is in a tight races for the 2nd Team All-American center with stars from Indiana, Auburn and UNC.
 
RnkTop Centers (5)TeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
1Oscar Tshiebwe #34Kentucky11.14SEC6'9"Jr
2Trayce Jackson-Davis #23Indiana8.94B106'9"So
3Walker Kessler #13Auburn8.66SEC7'1"So
4Armando Bacot #5North Carolina8.6ACC6'10"Jr
5Chet Holmgren #34Gonzaga8.52WCC7'0Fr
6Orlando Robinson #10Fresno St.8.4MWC7'0Jr
7Hunter Dickinson #1Michigan7.89B107'1"So
8Norchad Omier #15Arkansas St.7.79SB6'7"Fr
9Jack Nunge #24Xavier7.61BE7'0Jr
10KJ Williams #0Murray St.7.27OVC6'10"Jr
11Kofi Cockburn #21Illinois7.22B107'0Jr
12Kenneth Lofton #2Louisiana Tech7.03CUSA6'7"Fr
13Mark Williams #15Duke6.96ACC7'0So
14Christian Koloko #35Arizona6.93P127'1"So
15Jake Stephens #34VMI6.88SC6'11"Sr
16Isaiah Whaley #5Connecticut6.72BE6'9"Sr
17Keve Aluma #22Virginia Tech6.71ACC6'9"Sr
18Johni Broome #4Morehead St.6.68OVC6'10"Fr
19Osun Osunniyi #21St. Bonaventure6.65A106'10"Sr
20JT Shumate #32Toledo6.56MAC6'7"Jr
21Gaige Prim #44Missouri St.6.48MVC6'9"Sr
22Javon Franklin #13South Alabama6.47SB6'7"Sr
23Yauhen Massalski #25San Francisco6.46WCC6'9"Sr
24Ryan Kalkbrenner #11Creighton6.45BE7'1"So
25Zach Edey #15Purdue6.45B107'4"So
26Matthias Tass #11Saint Mary's6.44WCC6'10"Sr
27Jamal Cain #1Oakland6.42Horz6'7"Sr
28Isaiah Mobley #3USC6.39P126'10"Jr
29Trevion Williams #50Purdue6.28B106'10"Sr
30Drew Pember #4UNC Asheville6.13BSth6'10"Jr
31Darius Days #4LSU6.07SEC6'7"Sr
32Jaylin Williams #10Arkansas6.05SEC6'10"So
33Jalen Slawson #20Furman5.86SC6'7"Sr
34DaRon Holmes #15Dayton5.84A106'10"Fr
35Bryson Williams #11Texas Tech5.8B126'8"Sr
36Jesse Edwards #14Syracuse5.79ACC6'11"Jr
37Eric Dixon #43Villanova5.76BE6'8"So
38Andre Kelly #22California5.72P126'9"Sr
39Graham Ike #33Wyoming5.7MWC6'9"So
40Luka Brajkovic #35Davidson5.61A106'10"Sr
41Felipe Haase #22Mercer5.52SC6'9"Sr
42John Harrar #21Penn St.5.48B106'9"Sr
43Nick Muszynski #33Belmont5.44OVC6'11"Sr
44Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua #23Baylor5.36B126'8"Jr
45Enrique Freeman #25Akron5.35MAC6'7"So
46Pete Nance #22Northwestern5.32B106'10"Sr
47Nate Watson #0Providence5.28BE6'10"Sr
48Josh Carlton #25Houston5.25Amer6'11"Sr
49Tanner Groves #35Oklahoma5.22B126'10"Sr
50Myles Johnson #15UCLA5.16P126'10"Sr

Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Top 25 Value Add Basketball Players & Top 15 in Each Conference

The rankings for 4,000+ college Most Valuable Players in college basketball are updated at www.valueaddbasketball.com based on stats as of January 17, 2022. Value Add Basketball ranks players in a method similar to how www.kenpom.com ranks teams. The offensive rating (AdjO) minus the defensive rating (AdjD, negative is good because the player is taking points away from the other team) to calculated the overall "Value" of each player above a replacement player.




This blog links to three options to review the rankings:

1. The 25 most valuable players in the country are listed on the table below.
2. You can also go to www.valueaddbasketball.com to sort all 4000+ players by team, conference, class, etc.
3. The picture above is from this CBS 247 story on the updated rankings.
4. Finally, the links below the table take you to your choice of the 32 college basketball conferences for the notes specific to that conference and their top 15 players in the ratings.


RnkTop 25 All-AmericansTeamValueHtClAdjOAdjDGm/StConf
1Keegan Murray #15Iowa11.086'8"So8.97-2.1216, 16B10
2Justin Bean #34Utah St.10.586'7"Sr8.38-2.2016, 16MWC
3Oscar Tshiebwe #34Kentucky10.516'9"Jr6.86-3.6517, 17SEC
4Trayce Jackson-Davis #23Indiana10.126'9"So7.21-2.9116, 16B10
5Alex Barcello #13BYU10.126'2"Sr8.87-1.2517, 17WCC
6Collin Gillespie #2Villanova9.946'3"Sr8.30-1.6417, 17BE
7Kendric Davis #3SMU9.716'0Sr9.12-0.5917, 17Amer
8Armando Bacot #5North Carolina9.436'10"Jr6.85-2.5816, 16ACC
9Terrell Brown #23Washington9.306'3"Sr7.45-1.8415, 15P12
10Ochai Agbaji #30Kansas9.276'5"Sr8.33-0.9316, 16B12
11Tylor Perry #5North Texas9.225'11"Jr7.92-1.3013, 0CUSA
12Malachi Smith #13Chattanooga9.216'4"So8.62-0.6016, 16SC
13Posh Alexander #0St. John's9.216'0So5.36-3.8514, 13BE
14Orlando Robinson #10Fresno St.9.127'0Jr6.79-2.3415, 15MWC
15EJ Liddell #32Ohio St.8.936'7"Jr6.86-2.0715, 15B10
16Justin Moore #5Villanova8.566'4"Jr6.14-2.4217, 17BE
17Santiago Vescovi #25Tennessee8.526'3"Jr6.00-2.5116, 16SEC
18Jamaree Bouyea #1San Francisco8.436'2"Sr6.46-1.9717, 17WCC
19Christian Braun #2Kansas8.326'6"Jr6.20-2.1216, 16B12
20Iverson Molinar #1Mississippi St.8.296'3"Jr8.00-0.3016, 16SEC
21Tevin Brown #10Murray St.8.256'5"Jr6.33-1.9113, 13OVC
22Trent Frazier #1Illinois8.236'2"Sr4.61-3.6214, 13B10
23Alondes Williams #31Wake Forest8.216'5"Sr6.89-1.3218, 18ACC
24Tari Eason #13LSU8.086'8"So5.16-2.9216, 0SEC
25Hunter Dickinson #1Michigan7.957'1"So6.17-1.7813, 13B10


Below are the links to each conference review and top 15 players, with the Player of the Year listed.

Abbr, Conference, Player of Year so far, Team

AE, America East Conference, Ryan Davis #35, Vermont

Amer, American Athletic Conference, Kendric Davis #3, SMU

ASun, ASUN Conference, Darius McGhee #2, Liberty

A10, Atlantic 10 Conference, Michael Jones #13, Davidson

ACC, Atlantic Coast Conference, Armando Bacot #5, North Carolina

B12, Big 12 Conference, Ochai Agbaji #30, Kansas

BE, Big East Conference, Collin Gillespie #2, Villanova

BSky, Big Sky Conference, Dillon Jones #2, Weber St.

BSth, Big South Conference, Ricky Clemons #1, Campbell

B10, Big Ten Conference, Keegan Murray #15, Iowa

BW, Big West Conference, Collin Welp #40, UC Irvine

CAA, Colonial Athletic Association, Cam Holden #55, Towson

CUSA, Conference USA, Tylor Perry #5, North Texas

Horz, Horizon League, Jamal Cain #1, Oakland

Ivy, Ivy League, Kino Lilly #10, Brown

MAAC, Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, George Papas #5, Monmouth

MAC, Mid American Conference, JT Shumate #32, Toledo

MEAC, Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference, Kris Bankston #30, Norfolk St.

MVC, Missouri Valley Conference, Garrett Sturtz #3, Drake

MWC, Mountain West Conference, Justin Bean #34, Utah St.

NEC, Northeast Conference, Alex Morales #2, Wagner

OVC, Ohio Valley Conference, Tevin Brown #10, Murray St.

P12, Pac 12 Conference, Terrell Brown #23, Washington

Pat, Patriot League, Cam Spencer #12, Loyola MD

SEC, Southeastern Conference, Oscar Tshiebwe #34, Kentucky

SC, Southern Conference, Malachi Smith #13, Chattanooga

Slnd, Southland Conference, Isaac Mushila #10, Texas A&M CC

SWAC, Southwestern Athletic Conference, Jayveous McKinnis #11, Jackson St.

Sum, Summit League, Baylor Scheierman #3, South Dakota St.

SB, Sun Belt Conference, Javon Franklin #13, South Alabama

WCC, West Coast Conference, Alex Barcello #13, BYU

WAC, Western Athletic Conference, Jovan Blacksher #10, Grand Canyon

Note: I added the words "Most Valuable Player" above after initially posting this because our rankings measure how valuable a player is to a team while other votes may measure the "Player of the Year." In most cases I'd say the two are similar, but when writing the Big 12 summary below it occurred to me Baylor was a perfect example of when MVP and POY can be different. James Akinjo and Kendall Brown should be considered for Player of the Year in the rugged Big 12, but I don't believe either of the are in the running for Most Valuable Player because Baylor is so deep that if either of them could not play, Baylor still has seven players on the court that can dominate. I don't believe Kansas could contend nationally if Ochai Agbaji or Christian Braun were out - if those two were out and the two Baylor players above were out for the same game, I believe Baylor would beat Kansas handily..Baylor's incredible depth actually means each player is slightly less valuable because the replacement player stepping in for them is so good.

Sunday, February 21, 2021

Value Add Rankings Updates - Top 25 Defenders Featured

Baylor shooting guard Jared Butler calculates as the top defensive player in the country, as first revealed in this CBS Sports/247 piece, three weeks before teams are selected for March Madness. You can sort all 4,183 college players by team or conference at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Butler steals the ball on 4.7 percent of opponents' possessions, the fourth best total of any major conference player. His ability to disrupt opposing teams is a key part of Baylor having the 6th best defense and 2nd best team in the country. The only team in the country that calculates as better is Gonzaga, which www.kenpom.com calculates is currently the best team of the Century. This is no guarantee they will win March Madness however, as the second best team of the century at www.kenpom.com is the 2015 Kentucky team, which was 38-0 until upset by Wisconsin in the Final Four.


Defensive ratings are not as precise as the Offensive Ratings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The precise measurement of a few defensive stats can be measured precisely since teams average about 1.0 points per trip down the court, so a defensive player with a steal gets credit for taking away an average of 1.0 points, a player with a blocked shot 0.83, and a defensive rebound 0.33 points. However, each player on the team gets credit every time the opponent fails to score and it is not the result of one of those three things, and shares the blame anytime the opposing team scores. This is also adjusted by the level of opposing offense each team plays.

The following is a breakdown of factors that went into the ranking of the top 25 defensive players at www.valueaddbasketball.com, with Butler erasing an estimated 3.65 points a game from opponents more than a typical replacement player, etc.
 
RnkPlayerbTeamHt PosDef RatDR%Blk%Stl%AdjD
1Jared Butler #12Baylor6'3" SG-3.6511.001.804.76th
2Neemias Queta #23Utah St.7'0 C-3.4626.3013.202.418th
3Evan Mobley #4USC7'0 PF-3.3018.509.701.715th
4Jalen Suggs #1Gonzaga6'4" PG-3.1418.901.303.94th
5Myles Johnson #15Rutgers6'11" C-3.1224.7010.902.914th
6Jordan Goodwin #0Saint Louis6'3" SF-3.0427.700.303.547th
7Chris Duarte #5Oregon6'6" SG-2.9515.003.603.638th
8Franz Wagner #21Michigan6'9" PF-2.9320.603.502.511th
9Nah'Shon Hyland #5VCU6'3" SG-2.8614.800.703.410th
10Luis Rodriguez #15Mississippi6'6" SF-2.7921.503.00423rd
11Josiah-Jordan James #5Tennessee6'6" SF-2.7517.304.503.15th
12Jose Alvarado #10Georgia Tech6'0 SG-2.6610.300.204.564th
13Joel Ayayi #11Gonzaga6'5" SF-2.6519.500.602.24th
14Jay Huff #30Virginia7'1" C-2.6425.1011.101.122nd
15Grayson Murphy #2Belmont6'2" SG-2.6422.401.104.1132nd
16Herbert Jones #1Alabama6'8" PF-2.5814.404.003.42nd
17Lucas Williamson #1Loyola Chicago6'4" SF-2.5715.500.403.11st
18Isaiah Whaley #5Connecticut6'9" C-2.5317.1012.001.940th
19KC Ndefo #11Saint Peter's6'7" PF-2.5217.1016.002.643rd
20Davion Mitchell #45Baylor6'2" PG-2.508.001.103.86th
21DeJon Jarreau #3Houston6'5" PG-2.5015.901.702.97th
22Isaiah Miller #1UNC Greensboro6'0 PG-2.4919.501.104.565th
23Isaiah Jackson #23Kentucky6'10" PF-2.4323.7013.201.821st
24Cameron Krutwig #25Loyola Chicago6'9" C-2.4319.003.602.41st
25Marcus Garrett #0Kansas6'5" PG-2.4013.501.102.812th
 Best in Country  -3.6538.8016.005.41st

Saturday, February 6, 2021

Wooden Award Finalists, KenPom, Value Add Ranks Top Hoops Players

The following 33 players are considered one of the top 20 players in the country by at least one of three evaluations.

Each player is awarded 50 points if one of the 20 Wooden Award Finalists, then 50 points for being ranked 1st by www.kenpom.com or www.valueaddbasketball.com, 49 points for being ranked 2nd by either, etc. A player received no points if not listed as a Wooden Award finalists, or failed to make Pomeroy's top 10, or finished lower than 50th at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

For example, Luka Garza scores a perfect 150 points for being on the Wooden list and calculating as the No. 1 player at both www.kenpom.com and www.valueaddbasketball.com, 50 points each for 150. Baylor's Jared Butler is second with 50 points for making the Wooden list, 48 points for ranking 3rd at www.valueaddbasketball.com and 49 points for ranking second at www.kenpom for 147 points, followed by USC's Evan Mobley with 140 points etc. 
 
RnkPlayerTeamWooden?Value Add   Ken Pom  Total all 3
1Luka GarzaIowaYes11150
2Jared ButlerBaylorYes32147
3Evan MobleyUSCYes48140
4Trayce Jackson-DavisIndianaYes85139
5Ayo DosunmuIllinoisYes143135
6Drew TimmeGonzaga Yes234125
7Kofi CockburnIllinoisYes2910113
8Collin GillespieVillanovaYes7 94
9Corey KispertGonzagaYes12 89
10Justin ChampagniePittsburghYes13 88
11Marcus CarrMinnesotaYes19 82
12Jay HuffVirginiaNo18975
13Charles BasseyWestern KentuckyYes28 73
14Carlik JonesLouisvilleYes37 64
15Ron Harper Jr.RutgersYes38 63
16Cameron KrutwigLoyola ChicagoNo42654
17Hunter DickinsonMichiganYes62 50
18Jeremiah Robinson-EarlVillanovaYes85 50
19Cade CunninghamOklahoma StateYes94 50
20Jalen SuggsGonzagaYes114 50
21James BouknightConnecticutYes336 50
22Quentin GrimesHoustonYes473 50
23Chris DuarteOregonNo2 49
24Oscar da SilvaStanfordNo5 46
25Jose AlvaradoGeorgia TechNo6 45
26Trevion WilliamsPurdueNo71744
27Miles McBrideWest VirginiaNo9 42
28Kendric DavisSMUNo10 41
29Matthew HurtDukeNo11 40
30Tyson EtienneWichita St.No15 36
31DeVante' JonesCoastal CarolinaNo16 35
32Quincy GuerrierSyracuseNo17 34
33Alex BarcelloBYUNo20 31