Saturday, February 27, 2021

Preseason All-Conference Teams Listed, Added to www.valueaddbasketball.com

As we update the end of February www.valueaddbasketball.com ratings, we are adding two items. The NBA Ratings will once again appear in the far right column. We are also adding PreAllConf phrase in the Notes field for all players who were picked as a pre-season All Conference player. That note will be followed by a 1 for 1st team pre-season All Conference, a 2 for 2nd team all-conference and a 3 for 3rd team or other (e.g. PreAllConf1 means 1st team all-conference). We will also add an "MVP" if the player was chosen the pre-season Player of the Year or a "All-Def" if he was named to an All-Defensive team or as the top defender in the conference before the call.

We are also tracking injuries to incorporate from this injury report.

Here are the players by conference who will receive on of those notes, with the "Level" indicating which team they made, but a "0" means they were not only 1st team but also Player of the Year.

ConfPlayerTeamLevelDef/MVP
A10Atlantic 10 ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
A10Fatts RussellRhode Island1 
A10Jacob GilyardRichmond1All-Def
A10Jalen CrutcherDayton1 
A10Jordan GoodwinSaint Louis1All-Def
A10Kellan GradyDavidson1 
A10Tre MitchellMassachusetts1 
A10Blake FrancisRichmond2 
A10Grant GoldenRichmond2 
A10Hasahn FrenchSaint Louis2All-Def
A10Kyle LoftonSt. Bonaventure2 
A10Marcus WeathersDuquesne2 
A10Ryan DalySaint Joseph's2 
A10AJ WilsonGeorge Mason3All-Def
A10Javon GreeneGeorge Mason3 
A10Javonte PerkinsSaint Louis3 
A10Nah'Shon "Bones" HylandVCU3 
A10Osun OsunniyiSt. Bonaventure3All-Def
A10Sincere CarryDuquesne3 
ACCAtlantic Coast ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
ACCGarrison BrooksNorth Carolina0MVP
ACCAamir SimmsClemson1 
ACCChris LykesMiami1 
ACCJalen JohnsonDuke1 
ACCSam HauserVirginia1 
ACCScottie BarnesFlorida State1 
ACCDavid JohnsonLouisville2 
ACCJose AlvaradoGeorgia Tech2 
ACCKihei ClarkVirginia2 
ACCM J WalkerFlorida State2 
ACCWendell Moore JrDuke2 
AEAmerica East ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
AECam HealyAlbany1 
AENick GuadarramaNew Hampshire1 
AEObadiah NoelUMass Lowell1 
AEStef SmithVermont1 
AEZach CooksNJIT1 
AmerAmerican Athletic ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
AmerCaleb MillsHouston*0MVP
AmerBrandon RachalTulsa1 
AmerJayden GardnerEast Carolina*1 
AmerKeith WilliamsCincinnati1 
AmerKendric DavisSMU1 
AmerAlexis YetnaUSF2 
AmerChris VogtCincinnati2 
AmerD J JeffriesMemphis2 
AmerLanders NolleyMemphis2 
AmerTyson JollySMU2 
ASunASUN ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
AsunAhsan AsadullahLipscomb0MVP
AsunCaleb CattoFlorida Gulf Coast0MVP
AsunCarter HendricksenNorth Florida1 
AsunChristiaan JonesStetson1 
AsunDarius McGheeLiberty1 
AsunDylan PennBellarmine1 
AsunElijah CuffeeLiberty1 
AsunEmanuel LittlesNorth Alabama1 
AsunJalen WarrenFlorida Gulf Coast1 
AsunJamari BlackmonNorth Alabama1 
AsunKJ JohnsonLipscomb1 
AsunMahamadou DiawaraStetson1 
AsunMo ArnoldJacksonville1 
AsunRob PerryStetson1 
AsunTyreese DavisJacksonville1 
AsunAlex PetersonKennesaw State3All-Def
B10Big Ten ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
B10LUKA GARZAIOWA0MVP
B10Aaron HenryMichigan State1 
B10AYO DOSUNMUILLINOIS1 
B10Geo BakerRutgers1 
B10Joe WieskampIowa1 
B10Kofi CockburnIllinois1 
B10Marcus CarrMinnesota1 
B10Nate ReuversWisconsin1 
B10Trayce Jackson-DavisIndiana1 
B10Trevion WilliamsPurdue1 
B12Big 12 ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
B12Jared ButlerBaylor*0MVP
B12Austin ReavesOklahoma1 
B12Cade CunninghamOklahoma State1 
B12Marcus GarrettKansas*1 
B12Matt Coleman IIITexas1 
B12Oscar TshiebweWest Virginia1 
B12Courtney RameyTexas2 
B12Derek CulverWest Virginia2 
B12Greg  Brown IIITexas2 
B12Jericho SimsTexas2 
B12Kyler EdwardsTexas Tech2 
B12Mac McClungTexas Tech2 
B12MaCio TeagueBaylor2 
B12Mark VitalBaylor2 
BEBig East ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
BSkyBig Sky ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
BskyJacob DavisonEastern Washington0MVP
BskyBodie HumeNorthern Colorado1 
BskyCameron SheltonNorthern Arizona1 
BskyJubrile BeloMontana State1 
BskyKim Aiken JrEastern Washington1 
BskyMichael SteadmanMontana1 
BSthBig South ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
BSthChandler Vaudrin Winthrop1 
BSthDeVon Baker UNC Asheville1 
BSthDJ Burns Jr Winthrop1 
BSthJaheam Cornwall Gardner-Webb1 
BSthPhlandrous Fleming JrCharleston Southern1 
BSthEverette Hammond USC Upstate2 
BSthJohn-Michael Wright High Point2 
BSthKareem Reid Gardner-Webb2 
BSthLJ Thorpe UNC Asheville2 
BSthTommy Bruner USC Upstate2 
BWBig West ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
BWAmadou SowUC Santa Barbara1 
BWArinze ChidomUC Riverside1 
BWChance HunterLong Beach State1 
BWCollin WelpUC Irvine1 
BWEzra ManjonUC Davis1 
BWJaQuori McLaughlinUC Santa Barbara1 
CAAColonial Athletic AssociationConf abbreviation0 
CAAMatt LewisJames Madison0MVP
CAACamren WynterDrexel1 
CAAIsaac KanteHofstra1 
CAAJames ButlerDrexel1 
CAAZane MartinTowson1 
CAABrevin GallowayCharleston2 
CAAHunter McIntoshElon2 
CAAKevin AndersonDelaware2 
CAARyan AllenDelaware2 
CAATyson WalkerNortheastern2 
CUSAConference USAConf abbreviation0 
CUSABryson WilliamsUTEP1 
CUSACharles BasseyWKU1 
CUSAJahmir YoungCharlotte1 
CUSAJarrod WestMarshall1 
CUSAJavion HamletNorth Texas1 
CUSAJhivvan JacksonUTSA1 
CUSAJordan ShepherdCharlotte1 
CUSAKeaton WallaceUTSA1 
CUSATaevion KinseyMarshall1 
CUSATaveion HollingsworthWKU1 
HorzHorizon LeagueConf abbreviation0 
HorzLoudon LoveWright State0All-Def
HorzAntoine DavisDetroit Mercy1 
HorzJalen MooreOakland1 
HorzTanner HoldenWright State1 
HorzTorrey PattonCleveland State1 
HorzAmari DavisGreen Bay2 
HorzGrant BasileWright State2 
HorzMarcus BurkIUPUI2 
HorzNaz BohannonYoungstown State2 
HorzTrevon FaulknerNorthern Kentucky2 
HorzBul KuolDetroit Mercy3 
HorzDaniel OladapoOakland3 
HorzDeante JohnsonCleveland State3All-Def
HorzGarrett CovingtonYoungstown State3All-Def
HorzJarred GodfreyPurdue Fort Wayne3 
HorzLucas StieberGreen Bay3 
HorzMarques WarrickNorthern Kentucky3 
HorzMatt JohnsonDetroit Mercy3 
HorzMicah ParrishOakland3 
HorzShemar Rathan-MayesYoungstown State3 
HorzTe'Jon LucasMilwaukee3 
HorzTim FinkeWright State3All-Def
HorzTre GomillionCleveland State3All-Def
HorzTrey TownsendOakland3 
MAACMetro Atlantic Athletic ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
MAACJalen PickettSiena*0MVP
MAACDeion HammondMonmouth*1 
MAACKC NdefoSaint Peter's1 
MAACManny CamperSiena*1 
MAACMarcus HammondNiagara*1 
MAACAsante GistIona2 
MAACIsaiah RossIona2 
MAACMajesty BrandonCanisius2 
MAACTyrese WilliamsQuinnipiac2 
MAACWarren WilliamsManhattan2 
MAACDaryl BanksSaint Peter's3 
MAACDoug EdertSaint Peter's3 
MAACJacob RigoniQuinnipiac3 
MAACJesus CruzFairfield3 
MAACRaheem SolomonNiagara3 
MACMid American ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
MACJason PrestonOhio1 
MACJayvon GravesBuffalo1 
MACJustin TurnerBowling Green1 
MACLoren Cristian JacksonAkron1 
MACMarreon JacksonToledo1 
MACBen Vander PlasOhio2 
MACDaeqwon PlowdenBowling Green2 
MACDanny PippenKent State2 
MACIshmael El-AminBall State2 
MACJosh MballaBuffalo2 
MEACMid-Eastern Athletic ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
MEACKameron LangleyNorth Carolina A&T State0MVP
MEACCJ KeyserNC Central1 
MEACDeJuan ClaytonCoppin State1 
MEACKoby ThomasCoppin State1 
MEACMakur MakerHoward1 
MEACJoe BryantNorfolk State2 
MEACJordan PerkinsNC Central2 
MEACMJ RandolphFlorida A&M2 
MEACTroy Baxter, JrMorgan State2 
MEACWayne Bristol, JrHoward2 
MEACDa'Shawn PhillipMaryland Eastern Shore3 
MEACDevante CarterNorfolk State3 
MEACJoe FrenchBethune-Cookman3 
MEACPinky WileyDelaware State3 
MEACTyler MayeNorth Carolina A&T State3 
MVCMissouri Valley ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
MVCAJ GreenNorthern Iowa0MVP
MVCAustin PhyfeNorthern Iowa1 
MVCCameron KrutwigLoyola-Chicago1 
MVCDonovan ClayValparaiso1 
MVCElijah ChildsBradley1 
MVCGage PrimMissouri State1 
MVCJake LaRaviaIndiana State1 
MVCKeith Fisher IIIIllinois State1 
MVCMarcus DomaskSouthern Illinois1 
MVCMarquise KennedyLoyola-Chicago1 
MVCRoman PennDrake1 
MVCTate HallLoyola-Chicago1 
MVCTrae BerhowUNI1 
MVCTremell MurphyDrake1 
MVCTyreke KeyIndiana State1 
MWCMountain West ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
MWCDerrick Alston, JrBoise State0MVP
MWCBryce HamiltonUNLV1 
MWCIsaiah StevensColorado State1 
MWCMatt MitchellSan Diego State1 
MWCNeemias QuetaUtah State1 
NECNortheast ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
NECChauncey HawkinsSFBK1 
NECDamian Chong QuiMSM1 
NECElyjah WilliamsFDU1 
NECJahlil JenkinsFDU1 
NECTy FlowersLIU1 
OVCOhio Valley ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
OVCCarlos Marshall JrTennessee State1 
OVCGrayson MurphyBelmont1 
OVCJomaru BrownEastern Kentucky1 
OVCJordyn AdamsAustin Peay1 
OVCJosiah WallaceEastern Illinois1 
OVCJr ClayTennessee Tech1 
OVCKJ WilliamsMurray State1 
OVCMack SmithEastern Illinois1 
OVCNick MuszynskiBelmont1 
OVCParker StewartUT Martin1 
OVCTerry TaylorAustin Peay1 
OVCTevin BrownMurray State1 
OVCTre KingEastern Kentucky1 
P12Pac 12 ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
P12Chris DuarteOregon1 
P12Chris SmithUCLA1 
P12Evan MobleyUSC1 
P12Matt BradleyCalifornia1 
P12McKinley Wright IVColorado1 
P12Oscar da SilvaStanford1 
P12Remy MartinArizona State1 
P12Timmy AllenUtah1 
P12Will RichardsonOregon1 
P12Ziaire WilliamsStanford1 
P12Alonzo Verge JrArizona State2 
P12Ethan ThompsonOregon State2 
P12Isaac BontonWashington State2 
P12Josh ChristopherArizona State2 
P12Tyger CampbellUCLA2 
P12Evan Battey COLO3 
P12Jaime Jaquez Jr UCLA.3 
P12Jalen Hill UCLA3 
P12James Akinjo ARIZ3 
P12Quade Green WASH3 
PatPatriot LeagueConf abbreviation0 
PatCam DavisNavy1 
PatJordan BurnsColgate1 
PatJustin JaworskiLafayette1 
PatSanti AldamaLoyola Maryland1 
PatWalter WhyteBoston University1 
SBSun Belt ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
SBRuot MonyyongLittle Rock0MVP
SBDeVante JonesCoastal Carolina 1 
SBJustin ForrestApp State 1 
SBKane WilliamsGeorgia State1 
SBMarkquis NowellLittle Rock 1 
SBDavid AzoreUTA2 
SBElijah McCaddenGeorgia Southern2 
SBJustin RobertsGeorgia State2 
SBMarquis EatonArkansas State2 
SBMylik WilsonLouisiana2 
SBBen Coupet JrLittle Rock3 
SBCaleb FieldsArkansas State3 
SBCedric RussellLouisiana3 
SBMichael FlowersSouth Alabama3 
SBZack BryantGeorgia Southern3 
SCSouthern ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
SCIsaiah MillerUNCG0MVP
SCClay MounceFurman1 
SCDavid Jean-BaptisteChattanooga1 
SCJeff GaryMercer1 
SCLedarrius BrewerETSU1 
SCMason FaulknerWestern Carolina1 
SCMike BothwellFurman1 
SCNoah GurleyFurman1 
SCRoss CummingsMercer1 
SCStorm MurphyWofford1 
SCTy BrewerETSU1 
SECSoutheastern ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
SECAJ LawsonSouth Carolina1 
SECBrandon Boston JrKentucky1 
SECJavonte SmartLSU1 
SECJohn FulkersonTennessee1 
SECJohn Petty JrAlabama1 
SECKeyontae JohnsonFlorida1 
SECTrendon WatfordLSU1 
SECYves PonsTennessee1 
SECDesi SillsArkansas2 
SECDevontae ShulerOle Miss2 
SECDru SmithMissouri2 
SECHerbert JonesAlabama2 
SECJermaine CouisnardSouth Carolina2 
SECOlivier SarrKentucky2 
SECSavion FlaggTexas A&M2 
SECScottie LewisFlorida2 
SECScotty PippenJr. - Vanderbilt2 
SlndSouthland ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
SlndDru Kuxhausen*McNeese1 
SlndGavin Kensmil*Stephen F. Austin1 
SlndJoe Pleasant*Abilene Christian1 
SlndRylan Bergersen*Central Arkansas1 
SlndZach Nutall*Sam Houston State1 
SlndAJ LawsonMcNeese2 
SlndDavion BusterLamar2 
SlndDeAndre JonesCentral Arkansas2 
SlndKevin JohnsonNicholls2 
SlndRoti WareStephen F. Austin2 
SlndTroy GreenNew Orleans2 
SumSummit LeagueConf abbreviation0 
SumDouglas WilsonSouth Dakota State0MVP
SumFilip RebracaNorth Dakota1 
SumKevin ObanorOral Roberts1 
SumMatt PileOmaha1 
SumNoah FreidelSouth Dakota State1 
SumStanley UmudeSouth Dakota1 
SumJase TownsendDenver2 
SumMarlon RuffinOmaha2 
SumMatt DentlingerSouth Dakota State2 
SumMax AbmasOral Roberts2 
SumRocky KreuserNorth Dakota State2 
SWACSouthwestern Athletic ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
SWACTristan JarrettJackson State0MVP
SWACJayveous McKinnisJackson State1All-Def
SWACJustin HopkinsTexas Southern1 
SWACTroymain CrosbyAlcorn State1 
SWACYahuza RasasTexas Southern1 
SWACAhsante ShiversSouthern2 
SWACCaleb HunterMississippi Valley State2 
SWACChris BaldwinTexas Southern2 
SWACMarkedric BellArkansas-Pine Bluff2 
SWACMicah BradfordSouthern2 
WACWest Coast ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
WACJabari RiceNM State0MVP
WACAlessandro LeverGrand Canyon1 
WACDonnie TillmanNM State1 
WACJavon LeviUT Rio Grande Valley1 
WACJohnny McCantsNM State1 
WACEvan GilyardNM State2 
WACHunter SchofieldDixie State2 
WACJovan BlacksherGrand Canyon2 
WACOscar FrayerGrand Canyon2 
WACRiley GrigsbySeattle U2 
WCCWestern Athletic ConferenceConf abbreviation0 
WCCAlex BarcelloBYU1 
WCCColbey RossPepperdine1 
WCCCorey KispertGonzaga1 
WCCDrew TimmeGonzaga1 
WCCEli ScottLMU1 
WCCJamaree BouyeaSan Francisco1 
WCCJoel AyayiGonzaga1 
WCCJosip VrankicSanta Clara1 
WCCKessler EdwardsPepperdine1 
WCCMatthias TassSaint Mary's1

Friday, February 26, 2021

Statis-Pro Baseball Standings and Results

This google sheet includes the Statis-Pro baseball games to date, and the records appear below, followed by pictures of the scoresheets and the top player cards from each game.

AL EWL>.500W% TeamWLNext>.500W%
Bost 0000.000 ARI51Phil20.833
Cle 0000.000 ATL39 -30.250
NYY0000.000 CHC66
20.833
TB0000.000 CIN24 stl-10.333
Tor0000.000 Col75
20.500
AL WWL>.500W% TeamWLNext>.500W%
CWS0000.000 LAD66
00.667
Hou0000.000 Mia57 -10.417
LAA0000.000 MIL102
20.833
Min0000.000 NYM93
10.750
Oak0000.000 Phil42Ari10.667
      TeamWLNext>.500W%
      PIT39 -30.250
      SD57 -10.417
      SF48 -20.333
      STL33Cin00.500
      Wash66
20.500


Our Statis-Pro season utilizes these projected batter cards and these pitcher cards. Both the MLB/AL Commissioner based in Montana and NL Commissioner based in Alabama printed out these cards, which you can use for your own Statis-Pro games, and we keep up with roster updates to move cards between teams. If a player without a card makes a team's depth chart, the Commissioners find a card for a player with similar stats or use the replacement cards based on a batter's OPS or pitcher's ERA show further down in this blog.

 

The AL field is set for the 2021 Statis-Pro American League season. As always, the Commissioner starts by relegating five teams and aligning the divisions. The NL uses a slightly different procedure of allowing all 15 NL teams to start the season, but then relegating the five worse teams early in the season and at that point divide the remaining 10 into an East and West. 


Playoff Structure:


Each division winner receives a first round bye, the remaining four wildcard teams meet in the opening round best-of-5 series.


Best record gets worst remaining seed after wildcard round.


The Divisional Round, League Championship Series and World Series will be best-of-7.


The following are the accounts of 2nd round games with most recent game on top. Accounts of the games are here.

Arizona vs. Philadelphia

TBD.

Milwaukee 5, Cubs 4 (10 inn), then Milwaukee 12-5 sweep

The Brewers first 6 hitters all homered in one of the two games, and the bullpen went 11 innings, allowing on 1 earned run to move into first place at 10-2.




Colorado 7, LA Dodgers 6, then Colorado 6-5

Story and Tapia, the 1 and 2 hitters for the rockies, combined for an 8 of 16 series with 3 Homer's and 5 extra base hits to stun the Dodgers with two 1-run run wins. The Dodgers 1 and 3 hitters, Betts and Smith, almost matched then with 8 of 15 with 3 Homer's and 5 extra base hits.




NY Mets 5, Washington 4, then NY 9-2 sweep 

After the Nats top 2 starters dominated the Braves, their other starters were hammered by the Mets top two in their lineup. Lindor went 4 of 9 with two homers and Comforto went 4 of 8 with a homer and had another deep drive that shockingly did not make it out (DEEP drives in NY are always caught, but the game was played in Washington where an 11-83 on a deep drive goes over the fence and only an 84-88 is kept in the park for a flyout.




Giants 5, Padres 4, then Padres 7-4 (sweep led by 5+ after 8 innings)

It took a great start from the last man in the Padres strong rotation (Musgrove 6 ip, 1 r) and grandslam by no. 8 hitter Cronenworth to sweep game 2 and win the series.

The two leadoff hitters were the series leaders - Tatis 3 of 8 with 2 Homer's and double for Padres and the Giants Dickerson went 5-9 with a homer and double.




Marlins 12, Braves 5 (sweep), then Braves 2-1

The disastrous start for the Braves continued as Freeman and d'Arnaud were injured early and the middle relief gave up 10 runs in three innings in a 12-5 loss to the Marlins. Cooper hit three HRs in the series and Rogers gave the Marlins 3 scoreless innings in middle relief (we only allow most relievers on inning per two game series, but they can pitch 2 innings if they averaged at least 2 per appearance, and starting pitchers that do not make the 4-man rotation like Rogers can pitch four.

Despite their 2 stars on the bench for the second game, Ozuna hit his 2nd homer of the series and Acuna doubled in the winning run in a 4 for 8 series with 3 doubles and a homer.

DBacks 4, Pirates 3 (10), then DBacks 14-0 (sweep)

Sign of Statis-pro gods in the cards, Brault tagged for two triples and two Homer's in first five batters he faced in the nightcap, then was thrown out of the game for arguing balls and strikes (z play 12).



Phillies 10, Pirates 1 (sweep), then Pirates 6-5

Nola not only threw 7 strong innings in a 10-1 win but singled and homered in one of the most productive series for the No.9 spot in the NL. Miller hit pinch hit Homer's in both games, then Knapp hit a pinch hit homer and Moniak a pinch hit double to leave the No. 9 spot 6 of 9 with 19 total bases to slug over 2.000. The next best spot was Segura who went 5 of 9 in the no. 7 spot to give the bottom three spots 13 of 22 Phillies hits.

While the Phillies get credit for a 3-0 sweep in the first game for the 5+ run win, the Pirates rallied in the 8th of game 2. After a 3-run homer gave the Phillies a 5-4 lead in the 7th, Stratton came in to stop the damage with 1.2 innings. Stallings double in the either to tie the game and advanced to third on an error on McCutchen in left, and scored on a grounder in the hole for the 6-5 win.




Monday, February 22, 2021

How to Adjust KenPom Ratings Based on Injured Player's Value Add

UConn is a 3-point favorite against Georgetown tonight at www.kenpom.com, due to a calculation we estimate below this table. However, www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates that UConn is 4 points better when Bouknight plays and 4 points worse when he does not play (he has played 8 times and was injured for 8 of UConn's first 16 games). Since now Georgetown player makes the table, that is the only adjustment we would make to the expected score - Bouknight is expected to play tonight and therefore we adjust UConn to a 7-point favorite instead of a three point favorite.

Obviously in a one game sample they might win by three, or by more than seven, or lose, but this gives us a player adjustment for any player who is worth at least 4.0 points per game and has missed at least three games this season. If any other player not on this list misses a game, then simply go to www.valueaddbasketball.com and subtract his Value Add from his team's expected score to get an updated expected margin of victory, but for these players you improve their team projection by the "Playing" column or reduce their team projection by the "Not Playing" column.

Top 2% PlayersTeamPlayingNot playingPer GameRankPlayedValue AddRank
James Bouknight #2Connecticut4-47.68468 of 163.84448
Tyrece Radford #23Virginia Tech2-67.615014 of 185.85136
Sharife Cooper #2Auburn3-47.355512 of 233.87443
Kevin McCullar #15Texas Tech3-46.807512 of 213.78459
Iverson Molinar #1Mississippi St.1-66.768320 of 235.63159
Michael Nuga #1Kent St.2-56.758412 of 184.5320
Top 5% PlayersTeamPlayingNot playingPer GameRankGamesPer SeasonRank
Matt Mitchell #11San Diego St.1-66.619217 of 205.51170
Ian DuBose #11Wake Forest4-26.531006 of 162.42909
Nijel Pack #24Kansas St.1-56.4810519 of 235.4179
Sasha Stefanovic #55Purdue1-56.4710720 of 235.39181
AJ Green #4Northern Iowa5-16.231183 of 200.931777
Obadiah Noel #11UMass Lowell1-56.1412415 of 194.72273
Jordan Bruner #2Alabama2-45.9214214 of 233.7479
JT Shumate #32Toledo2-45.8415217 of 244.17377
Devon Daniels #24N.C. State2-45.6017412 of 193.5529
Jason Preston #0Ohio1-45.5817612 of 164.29348
Shanquan Hemphill #4Drake1-55.5318318 of 214.61291
DeAndre Williams #12Memphis2-35.5018811 of 183.44548
KJ Walton #1Ball St.1-55.4819015 of 184.57306
Matt Bradley #20California2-45.4519317 of 243.89436
Keyontae Johnson #11Florida4-15.382034 of 171.251547
Ricky Lindo #4George Washington4-15.382043 of 131.251542
N'Faly Dante #1Oregon4-25.372066 of 181.791233
Top 10% PlayersTeamPlayingNot playingPer GameRankGamesPer SeasonRank
Chad Baker #44Duquesne1-45.2721711 of 144.05399
Anthony Polite #2Florida St.1-45.2521812 of 164.04403
Marcus Shaver #0Boise St.1-45.1123418 of 214.26357
Keion Brooks #12Kentucky2-34.9726112 of 212.76759
DJ Funderburk #0N.C. State1-44.9026915 of 193.77466
Chris Smith #5UCLA3-24.842828 of 261.861200
Jalen Johnson #1Duke1-34.8228513 of 183.44549
Christian Guess #23Samford2-34.732959 of 162.63820
Cam Mack #32Prairie View A&M1-34.683068 of 113.34577
John Stansbury #5Delaware St.3-14.643143 of 121.161607
Mikael Jantunen #20Utah1-44.6331715 of 193.56514
Daejon Davis #1Stanford3-24.6231810 of 232.011106
Justin Smith #0Arkansas1-44.6232018 of 223.85447
Scottie Lewis #23Florida1-44.6232113 of 173.55516
Jabari Walker #12Colorado1-34.5434318 of 243.49533
Johnny Juzang #3UCLA1-44.4835217 of 213.73475
Dallas Walton #13Colorado1-34.4635418 of 243.43553
Bo Hodges #1Butler3-14.453556 of 191.391459
John Meeks #12Bucknell2-24.443572 of 42.221001
Brevin Galloway #55Charleston3-14.403644 of 161.11656
Oscar Tshiebwe #34West Virginia2-24.3936510 of 212.091072
Eric Williams #50Oregon1-34.3636814 of 183.35575
Joe Quintana #2Loyola Marymount1-44.3437215 of 183.62500
Jalen Gibbs #2Mount St. Mary's3-14.323816 of 181.441417
Geo Baker #0Rutgers1-44.2140017 of 203.51523
Elijah Childs #10Bradley1-44.2040920 of 233.5528
Charlie Moore #11DePaul1-34.2041011 of 143.23608
Jemarl Baker #3Arizona2-24.2041112 of 232.211009
Other Players 4.0+TeamPlayingNot Per GameRankGamesPer SeasonRank
Aljaz Kunc #4Washington St.1-34.1841520 of 243.48536
Jordan Cintron #20Niagara1-34.1841615 of 183.48538
Arkel Lamar #14UMKC3-14.174195 of 151.391458
Isaac Bonton #10Washington St.1-34.0843619 of 243.14628
CJ Fleming #25Bellarmine1-34.0444513 of 163.37572

Long Mathematical Explanation

For any mathematicians who want to understand the math, here is a basic rundown.

Value Add Basketball calculates each player's value above a replacement player to his team during the season. As an example, James Bouknight's Value Add tells us he has been worth almost 4 points a game - 3.84 - to UConn in their first 16 games.

Ken Pomeroy's rankings tell us how much better or worse a team is than average per 100 trips down the court. UConn's +17.43 means they would be an average team by just more than 17 points per 100 possessions, but since there are close to 70 possessions in an average game you can multiply the KenPom ranking by 0.7 and +17.43 x .7 = +12.20. UConn is 12.20 points per game better than the average team in a given game.

UConn's next opponent, Georgetown, has an +8.90 rating which is multiplied by .7 tells us Georgetown is 6.23 points better than the average team.

UConn's 12.20 minus Georgetown's 6.23 indicates UConn is almost exactly 6 points better than Georgetown, but since Georgetown will be the home team and Pomeroy calculates Georgetown's home court advantage is 3.1, UConn is a 3 point favorite in the game.

His actual formula's for determining the predicted margin of victory in each game likely have some tweaks, and if two teams are playing at a fast pace or slow pace then the margin would increase or shrink due to more or less than 70 possessions, but that is the basic idea when you reverse engineer.

The only variable this does not capture is if a key player is missing from one of the teams, or if a team's rating was held down because a player was missing for some games, but they are now actually better than their Pomeroy rating because he is back.

Thus the example of Bouknight, who conveniently played in exactly as many games as he missed during UConn's first 16 games. 

We can figure out how many points Bouknight was actually worth in the games he played through the following formula:

Value Add listed divided by Games Played by Player multiplied by Games Played by Team equals Actual Per Game Value Add when able to play.

Bouknight's rating at www.valueaddbasketball.com is 3.84, so we divide that by the eight games he played to date to get 0.48, then multiply that figure by the 16 games UConn has played to get 7.68.

This tells us that Bouknight has been worth and additional 7.68 points to UConn in the eight games he played (so turns a 4-point loss into a 4-point win). This means he is actually the 46th best player out of 4,183, so just misses the top one percent of all players. The reason the Value listed in the database is 3.84 is that in the eight UConn games when he was out injured, he was worth 0.00 points, so over the course of the season he has improved UConn 3.84 points per game UConn plays. He calculates as the 448th best player in the country, but if he had missed not games he was on pace to be the 46th best player in the country.

The next best player held back by injury is Tyrece Radford of Virginia Tech, whose 5.85 Value Add Rating would actually be 7.61 for the games in which he played.

We will go a little deeper into the math below this table, but 

Virginia Tech is projected to beat Georgia Tech by 2, so if Radford missed the game we subtract 6 points (5.85) and Virginia Tech is a 4 point underdog.

However, you also adjust up for a team that is at full strength, but the math is a little trickier. Below are all they key players who have missed at least three games, with their actual per game Value Add listed first, and then the listed Value Add next. You need to subtract the second figure from the first to see how much better than the kenpom rating the team is with the player now on the court.

For Bouknight, 7.68 minus 3.84 = 3.84, so UConn is actually four points better than their kenpom rating with him on the court and instead of a 3 point favorite against Georgetown they become a 7 point favorite at full strength. 

For Radford, 7.61 minus 5.85 = 1.76, so Virginia Tech is actually 2 points better than their kenpom rating with Radford back. Instead of a 2-point favorite Virginia Tech is a 4-point favorite against Georgia Tech.

The following are the only players whose injuries have made a substantial difference to factor in their adjusted kenpom rating. In looking at a match-up you need to see if the opponent likewise has a key player who has missed games. Neither of their opponents, Georgetown or Georgia Tech, has a player on the list below and therefore we can make the adjustment based on Bouknight and Radford being on the court.


Sunday, February 21, 2021

Value Add Rankings Updates - Top 25 Defenders Featured

Baylor shooting guard Jared Butler calculates as the top defensive player in the country, as first revealed in this CBS Sports/247 piece, three weeks before teams are selected for March Madness. You can sort all 4,183 college players by team or conference at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Butler steals the ball on 4.7 percent of opponents' possessions, the fourth best total of any major conference player. His ability to disrupt opposing teams is a key part of Baylor having the 6th best defense and 2nd best team in the country. The only team in the country that calculates as better is Gonzaga, which www.kenpom.com calculates is currently the best team of the Century. This is no guarantee they will win March Madness however, as the second best team of the century at www.kenpom.com is the 2015 Kentucky team, which was 38-0 until upset by Wisconsin in the Final Four.


Defensive ratings are not as precise as the Offensive Ratings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The precise measurement of a few defensive stats can be measured precisely since teams average about 1.0 points per trip down the court, so a defensive player with a steal gets credit for taking away an average of 1.0 points, a player with a blocked shot 0.83, and a defensive rebound 0.33 points. However, each player on the team gets credit every time the opponent fails to score and it is not the result of one of those three things, and shares the blame anytime the opposing team scores. This is also adjusted by the level of opposing offense each team plays.

The following is a breakdown of factors that went into the ranking of the top 25 defensive players at www.valueaddbasketball.com, with Butler erasing an estimated 3.65 points a game from opponents more than a typical replacement player, etc.
 
RnkPlayerbTeamHt PosDef RatDR%Blk%Stl%AdjD
1Jared Butler #12Baylor6'3" SG-3.6511.001.804.76th
2Neemias Queta #23Utah St.7'0 C-3.4626.3013.202.418th
3Evan Mobley #4USC7'0 PF-3.3018.509.701.715th
4Jalen Suggs #1Gonzaga6'4" PG-3.1418.901.303.94th
5Myles Johnson #15Rutgers6'11" C-3.1224.7010.902.914th
6Jordan Goodwin #0Saint Louis6'3" SF-3.0427.700.303.547th
7Chris Duarte #5Oregon6'6" SG-2.9515.003.603.638th
8Franz Wagner #21Michigan6'9" PF-2.9320.603.502.511th
9Nah'Shon Hyland #5VCU6'3" SG-2.8614.800.703.410th
10Luis Rodriguez #15Mississippi6'6" SF-2.7921.503.00423rd
11Josiah-Jordan James #5Tennessee6'6" SF-2.7517.304.503.15th
12Jose Alvarado #10Georgia Tech6'0 SG-2.6610.300.204.564th
13Joel Ayayi #11Gonzaga6'5" SF-2.6519.500.602.24th
14Jay Huff #30Virginia7'1" C-2.6425.1011.101.122nd
15Grayson Murphy #2Belmont6'2" SG-2.6422.401.104.1132nd
16Herbert Jones #1Alabama6'8" PF-2.5814.404.003.42nd
17Lucas Williamson #1Loyola Chicago6'4" SF-2.5715.500.403.11st
18Isaiah Whaley #5Connecticut6'9" C-2.5317.1012.001.940th
19KC Ndefo #11Saint Peter's6'7" PF-2.5217.1016.002.643rd
20Davion Mitchell #45Baylor6'2" PG-2.508.001.103.86th
21DeJon Jarreau #3Houston6'5" PG-2.5015.901.702.97th
22Isaiah Miller #1UNC Greensboro6'0 PG-2.4919.501.104.565th
23Isaiah Jackson #23Kentucky6'10" PF-2.4323.7013.201.821st
24Cameron Krutwig #25Loyola Chicago6'9" C-2.4319.003.602.41st
25Marcus Garrett #0Kansas6'5" PG-2.4013.501.102.812th
 Best in Country  -3.6538.8016.005.41st

Saturday, February 20, 2021

2021 Statis-Pro Season Set-up and Under Way - UPDATE, RED SOX IN, MARINERS OUT

Our Statis-Pro season utilizes these projected batter cards and these pitcher cards. Both the MLB/AL Commissioner based in Montana and NL Commissioner based in Alabama printed out these cards, which you can use for your own Statis-Pro games, and we keep up with roster updates to move cards between teams. If a player without a card makes a team's depth chart, the Commissioners find a card for a player with similar stats or use the replacement cards based on a batter's OPS or pitcher's ERA show further down in this blog.

 

The AL field is set for the 2021 Statis-Pro American League season. As always, the Commissioner starts by relegating five teams and aligning the divisions. The NL uses a slightly different procedure of allowing all 15 NL teams to start the season, but then relegating the five worse teams early in the season and at that point divide the remaining 10 into an East and West. 


Playoff Structure:


Each division winner receives a first round bye, the remaining four wildcard teams meet in the opening round best-of-5 series.


Best record gets worst remaining seed after wildcard round.


The Divisional Round, League Championship Series and World Series will be best-of-7.


The following are the AL Divisions and five teams relegated.


UPDATE. On February 25, the Statis-Pro Commissioner based in Montana determined that the Statis-Pro cards for the Boston Red Sox were superior to those of the Seattle Mariners, and therefore he added the Red Sox to the AL "East" and moved the Chicago White Sox to the AL "West," relegating the Seattle Mariners. Changes are reflected in bold. (official report)


 

AL “East”

New York

Tampa Bay

Toronto

Boston

Cleveland

 

AL “West”

Houston

Los Angeles

Minnesota

Chicago

Oakland

 

(relegated, Seattle, Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit, Texas)

 

Regular season play will begin in March in the AL.


The NL started their season in mid-February. While the NL is playing all 15 teams early, a NL team will occasionally play one of the relegated AL teams. 


If you do not see a card for a player on a team, use a pitcher's projected or career ERA to fill in the PB on this blank pitcher card, or a batter's projected or career OPS to pick the row below the pitcher card to use for his batting card.





When standings are released, any ties between teams with the same winning percentage will be broken by the toughest opponents faced to date based on the projected wins for all opponents based on these preseason Vegas win projections.


CityAL TeamWins CityAL TeamWins
New YorkYankees95.5 Los AngelesDodgers101.5
ChicagoWhite Sox91.5 San DiegoPadres94.5
MinnesotaTwins88.5 AtlantaBraves91.5
OaklandAthletics87.5 New YorkMets90.5
HoustonAstros86.5 St. LouisCardinals86.5
TorontoBlueJays86.5 WashingtonNationals84.5
Tampa BayRays85.5 CincinnatiReds82.5
Los AngelesAngels83.5 MilwaukeeBrewers82.5
ClevelandIndians81.5 PhiladelphiaPhillies80.5
BostonRed Sox80.5 ChicagoCubs79.5
Kansas CityRoyals72.5 San FranciscoGiants75.5
SeattleMariners72.5 ArizonaDiamondbacks74.5
DetroitTigers68.5 MiamiMarlins70.5
TexasRangers66.5 ColoradoRockies64.5
BaltimoreOrioles64.5 PittsburghPirates59.5
AL Average 80.8 NL Average 81.2



Thursday, February 18, 2021

Value Add Basketball Background and References

Because we are getting a lot of hits on the www.valueaddbasketball.com data base as 2021 conference championships and March Madness approach, we are reposting the explanation of Value Add Basketball. The www.pudnersports.com website is accessed any time you click the orange box in the upper right corner of the ratings. When you go to the site, you can sort a particular conference (below we search for B10 or Big Ten in the bottom of the conference column) to view only the players you want to watch from a particular team or conference. You can also sort by any column such as the furthest right column "NBA" if you want to sort by the players most likely to do well in the NBA instead of who has been the most valuable to their college team so far (Value Add).


For more background on the system, the rest is an earlier post.

For an explanation of the Value Add basketball rankings, you can always click on this post from the bottom of the www.valueaddbasketball.com database.  I must thank Sports IllustratedESPNNBC SportsFox Sports and all of the other outlets who have covered Value Add.  A variation of this formula measures how likely a player is to be successful in the NBA, but the basic explanation of how and why it works follows.

Anthony Davis added 7.29% to Kentucky’s scoring with his offense and took away -5.06% from opponent’s scoring, so his total impact on the score was 12.35%, the highest Value Add in the country in 2012. This means that if Kentucky would have lost a game 69-70 with a typical fourth or fifth man off the bench playing instead of Davis, then with Davis they win 74-66.
When you first pull up the database at www.valueaddbasketball.com, you will see the ratings of all of the basketball players for this season.  You can search by team, conference or a player’s name to see where specific players rank, or just scroll through more than 3000 players for each season.
You can also click on the other tabs to see players from the 2006 season through the projections for how good players should be in 2014, including new recruits.  This is probably enough explanation for most readers, but if you want more details, the ratings consist of three components:
1. The Offensive component is explained in this post, as we can measure with great precision how many points a player ad to his team’s score.
2. The Defensive component is not quite as precise but measures a player’s ability to block shots, steal the ball, grab defensive rebounds and be part of a defense that prevents opponents from scoring in other ways.  In both cases, a players rating is measured against exactly how good each of an opponents’ offense and defense is, so the same player should have basically the same rating whether he plays for the national champion or the worst Division 1 team.
3. The Point Guard/Perimeter Defensive Rating (PG/Per) redistributes a small percent of the credit from post players who do not turn the ball over as much because they do not have to dribble as often and who grab more defensive rebounds because they do not have to play defense on the perimeter.  After extensive study, this figure was determined the most accurate way to fairly adjust ratings based on position, as explained in this post.
NBA Indicators Developed by Rob Lowe
Much like Ken Pomeroy at www.kenpom.com, Rob Lowe (who is much smarter than me) developed methods for measuring tempo-free statistics as calculated in Dean Oliver’s book, “Basketball on Paper.”  While Oliver, and in turn Pomeroy, determined how to measure a dozen things a player does to help his team win, www.valueaddbasketball.cominstead breaks down all ways a player helps his team into on figure that determines his overall value.
Lowe built on Value Add and other sources to develop calculations that measure how likely a player is to be successful in the NBA, and officials from several NBA teams met with me prior to the 2012 draft to review these valuations.  These evaluations are only available to select NBA teams.
Others have built on the Value Add system since it was developed.  Sports Illustrated used it to go back further in history and conclude that Duke’s JJ Reddick was the best Value Add guard since modern stats were introduced and that research was picked up by ESPN. Basketball Prospectus then started to add to the equation with some additional calculations.
Big Apple Buckets out of New York was instrumental in the further development of a variation to calculate the value of players in the Ivy League and other low major conferences, and we have received follow-up questions from Ivy League schools and officials.  These ratings can be found by clicking on the “Low-Major” link in the bottom right corner.
In addition, these rankings are written about regularly on sites for teams like KentuckyArizonaNC StateBaylor and League sites for the Big Ten, Summit, Horizon and Patriot Leagues as well as the original www.crackedsidewalks.com page that focuses on Marquette and the Big East/Catholic 7.
One credibility test for the system occurred after an engineer developed the program to run the calculations, and a Marquette player, Jae Crowder, showed up as an All-American.  Statisticians never like to have a favorite when running numbers and the fact that I covered Marquette and Crowder’s Value Add was so high even though he was not even an All-Conference player nor listed in the top 100 NBA prospects made me nervous.  However, several NBA team officials met with me and were very complementary that my calculations were “finding” several of the same sleeper prospects they had found through intense scouting, including Crowder.
I did later meet Crowder after his last game at Marquette and was put at ease months later when the AP sports writers named him one of the top 10 players as a second-team All-American and then the Dallas Mavericks drafted him and he was named an All-Star in Summer League and made the Mavs.  While the numbers were backed up, I will give Crowder and the other players who backed up their Value Add ratings with great runs on the court assists for the success of Value Add.
I have also taken questions on Value Add on the radio, and spoken on the statistics behind politics and sports.