Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Simulated March Madness Complete Bracket and Short Note on All 67 Games

The National Title Game Summary is now here if you want to skip ahead.

The March Madness 2020 simulations played using these 2020 Player Cards using the free and updated Value Add Basketball Game reached the Sweet 16. The letter and number before each team indicate the Region and Seed, so Dayton's E1 means they were the 1-seed in the East. Below this bracket finds each Region Bracket with scores and short summaries, and then longer game accounts under the EastSouthMidwest, and West Regional blogs. So far the Elite 8 features a 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, 6- and 10-seed with the remaining two games featuring a 1- vs 4-seed. For more details and the player cards and score sheet on each game click this blog.

Final 4

Creighton 97, Indiana 94 in OT - Trayce Jackson-Davis (28 pts, 10 reb) and Indiana overpowered Crieghton inside for a 50-36 rebounding edge. After  Jackson-Davis drew a 5th foul on Damien Jefferson Indiana led 76-71 with 53 seconds left, but Denzil Maloney re-entered the game and hit a 3-pointer, Mitch Bullock hit another and with seconds left and still down 79-77 Marcus Zegarowski (22 pts) two free throws the send a thriller into overtime 79-79 and Creighton scored 18 in OT to win.

Duke 89, Iowa 64 - Duke continued their incredible average if 11 to 12 steals per tournament game with 11 more as guards Tre Jones (17 points, 2 steals), and Jordan Goldwire (14 points, 4 steals including two fast break 3s) dominated for a 2nd straight game.

Elite 8 Results

No more than one of the four 1-seeds has made the Final 4 in 6 of the last 9 years, and with the record number of No.1 teams losing during the season this one was ripe for more of the same ...

3-Duke 78, 1-Baylor 68. After doing just enough in their first three wins, Tre Jones (21 pts, 5 steals) and Duke dominated from the outset.

10-Indiana 81, 1-Dayton 74. Trayce Jackson-Davis (11,13, 3 blocks) helped the Hoosier team that in the real season beat 4 top 30 teams in their last 8 games and earlier in the year beat Florida State, Ohio State and Michigan State, become what would have been the third double digit seed in 5 years to make the Final 4.

2-Creighton 85, 1-Kansas 80. Zegarowski (21 points, 5 3-pts) and Alexander (21, 2) to build a 65-44 lead with 13:11 to play. Dotson led an incredible response, hitting his 4th 3-pointer for his 29th point to finish a 31-13 run to cut it to 78-75 with 1:52 to play then stealing and passing ahead to Braun for a potential game-tying shot, but it missed and the Jayhawks could get no closer.  Azubike's 18 points and 8 rebounds was hurt by him missing all 4 free throws to make it 0 for 11 in the final two games.

6-Iowa 74, Oregon 64 - The Big Ten's incredible dominance in the actual season translated into two of the Final 4 teams as their best player - Luka Garza - dominated Oregon for 16 points and 14 rebounds.

Sweet 16 results Winners to Elite 8:
  • Baylor 65, Kentucky 58. Despite the typically great defense, Baylor was dominated 38-29 on the boards by taller Kentucky and never led until MaCio Teague's 4-point play with 1:52 to play made it 58-54.
  • Creighton 86, Michigan 63. Zegarowski (24, 4 3-pts) and Alexander (29, 5 3-pts) led record-setting 12 3-pointers in 44 possession game (like 18 in full game). 
  • Dayton 79, Louisville 70. Crutcher (18, 3) hit a 3-pointer with 5:34 left to out Dayton up 66-60. Toppin (19,10) grabbed a  rebound few could have gotten away from the offense then was fouled at the other end and hit 2 free throws to make it 68-60. Toppin then hit 2 more free throws and then a rare 3-point shot to make it to cap the 16-4 run to make it 77-64 1:52 to play and overcome Nwora's 19 points.
  • Duke 82, Little Rock 72.  Jones steal and pass ahead to Jordan Goldwire for a 3 started a 19-7 run on 5 3-pointers to make it 77-71. 
  • Indiana 80, NC State 62. Jackson Davis led Indiana in points (18), rebounds (8), blocks (2) and drew 7 fouls including Hellem fouling out.
  • Iowa 68, Arizona St. 59. Weiskamp (26,8) took over despite ASU holding All-American Garza (9,9) in check.
  • Kansas 58, Wisconsin 52. Kansas was on a path for the best defensive effort in VABG history with a 53-31 lead with 4 minutes to play, with All-Americans Devon Dotson (16, 7 and 3 steals) and Usoka Azubuike (18, 12 and 4 blocks) dominating.
  • Oregon 72, USC 65. Duarte Duck's leading scorer and rebounder just like in actual win over USC during the season.

Nine of projected Sweet 16 teams (top 4 seeds) made our Sweet 16. This is fewer than the 14 of 16 top 4 seeds made it last year, but more than the 7 of 16 favorites that made the Sweet 16 in 2018. In other words there were more surprise Sweet 16 teams in 2018 than the 7 in our tournament.

East Region

2nd Round: 
  • Dayton - Set game scoring record in 95-68 win over Rutgers behind Naismith POY Toppin (14,10,5 blocks) and All-A10 Crutcher (22) and Landers (17).
  • Louisville - Nwora scores 25, Louisville holds off red hot shooting Yale 88-82.
  • Indiana - 6-11 center Brunk and 6-9 All-Big Ten Jackson-Davis (25,7) helped Indiana win rebounding battle 35-28 against North Kentucky trio that dominated boards to stun Villanova. The Hoosiers win 86-68.
  • NC State - Bryce beat the buzzer to win 75-73 after Hofstra's Coburn tied it with a 3 and Buie followed his 30 pts vs. Maryland with 17.
1st Round:

Louisville most dominant behind Value Add 1st Team All-ACC duo Nworka (21, 6) and Sutton (10,6) for 81-71 win; Daniel's 17 pts, 5 steals lead NC State 64-60 (they also won play-in); Buie's 30 pts lead Hofstra to 79-55 stunner (he scored 29 in double-digit win over UCLA in only Quad 1 actual game this year); Indiana's Value Add All-Big Ten Jackson-Davis (16 pts, 9 reb, 8 blocks) shuts down UVa; Yale's Atkinson (25, 9) towers over Butler; Value Add All-Horizon Walton (17 pts) leads Northern Kentucky in stunner; Yeboah (13 pts), late Johnson stick-back pull out Rutgers win; Toppin (32 pts, 10 reb, 4 blocks) perhaps best performance of 1st round to lead Dayton.
For summaries of each game click on East.

Midwest Region

2nd round:
  • Kansas - Region: Dotson (17 points, 3 steals) ,A (20 points, 16 rebounds, 6 blocks) and Kansas look like overall No.1 in 79-55 blowout of Colorado.
  • Creighton -  Zegarowski and Value Add 3rd team all-amer Alexander combine for 43 in 76-57 blow out of Oklahoma.
  • Michigan - Teske (23,7,7 blocks) and Big Ten continue to roll with 75-71 win over Seton Hall.
  • Wisconsin - Set game records for most 3-pointers made (10) and fewest turnovers (5) to rally past Ohio State 80-68
1st round:

Dotson 27 pts/ 6 steals lead Kansas; Wesson rallies Ohio State late; Center Manek's 25 pts/5 3-pts lead Oklahoma 75-59; Wisconsin's Reuvers (18 pts, 9 reb) clutch 3-pointer clinches 75-69 win; Joe Teske (17 pts, 7 reb, 6 stls, 7 blocks) rallies Michigan; McKnight avoids 5th foul, gets 3 late steals and Seton Hall pulls away; Value Add All-American Alexander leads Creighton; Bey's late stick back for 24th pt leads Colorado past Marquette's Howard in OT. Cincinnati and Boston U won play-ins. For summaries of each game click on Midwest.

South Region

2nd round:
  • Baylor - Gillespie (18, 22, 8 blocks) and Butler (33, 6 and 5 steals) led unbelievable Baylor to come back from 43-30 to win 100-94 in 2 OT over LSU.
  • Duke - Goldwater (5 steals) held SC MVP Tisdale to 10 pts, 3 reb for 75-68 over E.Tennessee State 75-68.
  • Kentucky - Backcourt of Quigley (22) and Hagans (20) outscored Auburn's McCormick (17) and Doughty (20, fouled out) for an 85-75 win.
  • Little Rock - brought back memories of the shockers at San Diego State, Tulsa and in March Madness over Purdue in 2016 when PG Nowell (19 pts, 6 stl) helped force 23 Houston turnovers for a 72-58 stunner.

1st round:

Kentucky and Baylor look most dominant. Kentucky dominant with Hagan's record 10 steals; ETSU thriller after tied at 51, 53, 57, 59 and 61 vs. WVU; Goldwire's consecutive steals and transition 3-pointers boost Duke; Little Rock twin towers shock Florida State; Baylor's Gillespie dominates boards and his four 6'3" and under teammates dominate; Williams 6 blocks and Smart's 6 3-pointers led LSU. Doughty (20,9) and Wiley (12,12,5 blocks) lead Auburn. Texas Tech All-American Hinton dunk beats buzzer to avoid OT and propel Houston 66-64. For summaries of each game click on South.

West Region

2nd round:
  • USC - Okongwu (23,9,5 blocks) leads USC 74-73 thriller over 1-Gonzaga, which in real play did lose it's only Quad 1 non-conference by 18.
  • Arizona State -PG Martin (27 points, 4 steals) blew West Region wide open with a second big upset, this one over San Diego State, 72-69.
  • Oregon - Pritchard scored 19 and piled up fouls on 3 BYU players guarding him as Oregon rallied 78-71.
  • Iowa - Epic big man battle, Garza (14,14,8 blocks) and Tillman (19,10) settled in final 1:30 with back-to-back 3-pts Weiskamp (20) & Frederick (13) and Garza reject Winston (18) for Iowa 77, MSU 72.

1st round - Michigan State 82-59 best 1st round performance in tourney with Winston-Tillman inside-out game; Iowa also dominant behind Garza (17 pts, 9 reb, 4 steals, 4 blocks) and now they meet; San Diego State's Flynn draws 6 fouls, scores 21 in win; Toolson's 21 leads BYU offensive explosion;  - favorites start 5-1. Game not reflected, Michigan State 82, Cal-Davis 59, 3 left. Value Add Pac-12 MVP Okongwu late stickbacks propel USC; Late rebounds by Petrusev, Kispert and Timme save Gonzaga. Pritchard 19 points, 5 steals lead Oregon past NM State 75-69. Arizona State's Martin scores 17 for win. Prairie View A&M won play-in. For summaries of each game click on West.

Note 1- We fixed one statistical issue that allowed players who stole the ball or grabbed an offensive rebound to score to easily - and the 1- and 2-seeds played below before that rule change giving the 15- and 16-seeds better chances at upsets before the fix. (The only result that likely was changed was Villanova's loss, but we will call it bad refereeing and letting an underdog stay too close).

Note 2 - Because the East's No. 1 seed Dayton was the 4th overall seed at BracketMatrix, the East Champion would play the Midwest Region due to Kansas being the overall No. 1 seed. The play in games are not included in the brackets (Robert Morris lost to Prairie View 70-68, NC Central lost to Boston U 80-63, Richmond lost to NC State 71-67 and Wichita State lost to Cincinnati 68-66. Note that in an actual tournament that last game and other conference match-ups (Arizona-Arizona State and LSU-Florida) would not be allowed, but we stuck with the BracketMatrix seeding and divided each four teams by logical regions rather than tweak seeds and regions.

Conference 2nd Round Teams, and Sweet 16 in Bold:

Big Ten (7 2nd round teams, 4 Sweet 16): Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Rutgers, Michigan State.

Pac12 (4, 3): USC, Colorado, Arizona State and Oregon.

Big 12 (3, 2): Baylor, Oklahoma and Kansas.

ACC (3, 3): Duke, NC State, and Louisville.

SEC (3, 1): Kentucky, LSU and Auburn.

Big East (2, 1): Seton Hall and Creighton.

WCC (2, 0): Gonzaga and BYU.

Other Conferences (8, 2): San Diego State,  Dayton, Little Rock, East Tennessee State, Yale, Northern Kentucky, Houston and Hofstra.

I did include below the 32 stacks in alphabetical order of 2nd round teams. If two teams had yet to play their first-round game then I stacked them together with the favored team on top and in that order.

Important rule update after 3/28/2020 Games. After the 15- and 16-seed teams played much better than expected overall and actually won 2 of 8 games, we the 100+ all-time great games played and ran some recalculations and determined the game had one statistical distortion and changed a rule to correct. Through games of 3/28 an offensive player getting a rebound could use the 20-sided die to shoot immediately. In reviewing past match-ups we reran numbers and realized this loophole took away the dunk range and defensive aspect of the game, letting big rebounders from lower divisions score more points than should have been allowed. Therefore games beginning on 3/29/2020 require that when a team gets an offensive rebound they roll all 4 dice again to run the office and see who gets the ball, and if it is stolen or turned over, etc. We did not change any results even though Villanova would have likely won their 1-point upset, though Florida State would have still been upsets stunned by Little Rock.

Friday, March 20, 2020

NIT 2020 March Madness (if you scroll down while viewing www.pudnersports.com you will get to all NCAA simulated results in blogs below)

This Value Add Basketball Game plays out the NCAA 2020 Tournament using these player cards. Game summaries will be included below the bracket, with the most recent result always moved to the top story until we have a NIT Champion from among these teams.

On April 19, despite having shifted from basketball to baseball, we played one NIT game as our first game since getting each team's player cards all on the one sheet, and as the first "home game" with South Alabama visiting Oklahoma State (so 36 and 66 rolls go ahead the away team). Game account below:

NIT Games with Home Court Advantage

At Oklahoma State 70, South Alabama 58. South Alabama (USA) dominated the boards to lead 47-42 with 10:45 (18 possessions) to play.

However, USA big men Trhae Mitchell and later Josh Ajayi (8 points, 9 rebounds) fouled out to let Cameron McGriff (18 points, 8 rebounds) take over inside down the stretch to lead Oklahoma State's 70-68 NIT 1st round win.

Since our NCAA tournament was played using neutral court rules, this was the first time a game was played as a home game, and two calls hurt USA. The refs missed a call (36 roll) that prevented Mitchell from hitting a 3-pointer and instead caused a turnover. Later Mitchell's 5th foul was on a good call but one that would have been overlooked (also 36 roll) if South Alabama were at home.

From the time Mitchell fouled out USA was outscored 28-11 in part because of several OSU baskets on shots Mitchell would have blocked if still in the game.

With the other two front line players fouled out, USA's Chad Lott (16 points) kept it close for a while, but OSU's point guard Isaac Likelele (9 points, 5 steals) helped OSU win the turnover battle 16 to 8.

The following photo is of the first game played with the team sheets rather than the bigger playing cards. All 10 players on each team are on their sheet, though in the photo we just show the 5.starters across the top and the scoresheet at the top.

West Region 2020 March Madness Bracket

This Value Add Basketball Game plays out the NCAA 2020 Tournament using these player cards. Game summaries will be included below the bracket, with the most recent result always moved to the top story until we have a West Region Champion from among these teams.

2nd Round

6-Iowa 77, 3-Michigan State 72

  • Iowa - Epic big man battle, Iowa's Luka Garza (14,14,8 blocks) and Xavier Tillman (19,10) settled in final 1:30 with back-to-back 3-pts Joe Weiskamp (20) & CJ Frederick (13) and Garza reject Cassius' Winston (18) for Iowa 77, MSU 72. Both teams won first round blowout so a shame this was the matchup and one had to lose.

4-Oregon 78, 5-BYU 71

Jake Toolson (24 pts) led BYU to a 45-38 lead, but www.valueaddbasketball.com National Player of the Year Runner-Up Payton Pritchard led the comeback.

TJ Hawes (16 points, fouled out), Alex Barcello and Dalton Nixon tried guarding him. On defense, Oregon's Chris Duarte starred with three tough steals on three different BYU players to finally slow their offense.

10-Arizona St. 72, 2-San Diego State 69 

An awesome point guard match-up featured www.valueaddbasketball.com national MVP against a PG in the top 2% of all players in ASU's Remy Martin (27 points, 4 steals). Arizona State won the turnover battle 19-12 to blow the West Region wide open with both seeds eliminated.

9-USC 74, 1-Gonzaga 73

Onyeka Okongwu, USC's www.valueaddbasketball.com 2nd team All-American, scored 23 points and grabbed 9 rebounds to lead the Trojans to a 35-27 edge on the boards and double digit lead over Gonzaga.

After an opening 3-pointer by USC, Gonzaga was never within three again until Filip Petrusev scores to make it 67-64 with 3:21 left. That started a furious back and forth between him and Okongwu for the last few minutes.

Petrusev scored was fouled, hitting the free throw to cut it to 68-67.  Admon Gilder then stole the ball and scored on a fast break to give the Zags what would be their only lead if the game, 69-68. Okongwu then scored on three straight trips while Petrusev and Gilder scores during the stretch to make it a 6-4 USC stretch to hold a 74-73 with each team having one possession left.

The Zags finally had a stop with Petrusev grabbing a rebound to give the Zags one final shot. Corey Kispert (9,8) missed and USC's Nick Rakocevic grabbed a great rebound to wrap up the game with incredible offensive rebounders Petrusev and Drew Timme bearing down.

In a balanced actual season, the Zags did only play one Quad 1 non-conference game, losing to Michigan by 18, while USC ended the year beating Arizona, Arizona State and UCLA in the year the Pac 12 looked to be back.

1st round
4-Oregon 75, 13-New Mexico State 68

This looked like the year the Pac-12 was back, as Oregon provided a 4th team from the Pac-12 to make our second round. Only the Big Ten had more (7), though the Big 12 could tie them if Texas Tech beats Houston in one the the two final 1st round games (both in the South).

Payton Pritchard (highlights) the www.valueaddbasketball.com top player in the country for the real season behind San Diego State's Malachi Flynn, started the game with a 3-pointer and drive to the hoop to lead Oregon to the 2nd round. Pritchard (19 points, 5 rebounds, 5 steals) helped force 23 New Mexico State turnovers, but it still took some key plays by Chris Duarte (11,5,3) in the closing minutes to hold off NM State when they cut it to within a basket several times.

Oregon held in check NM State's trio of rotating forwards - Trevelin Queen, Jabari Rice and Johnny Mccants - all Value Add 1st team all-swac players. However, four different players grabbed at least five rebounds to give NM State a 32-26 edge on the boards, and Terrell Brown culminated a surprising 17 points by being fouled on a 3-pointer with 1:30 to play and sinking all three to cut the Oregon lead to 69-66, but the Ducks held on.

3-Michigan State 82, UC-Irvine 59

Picking an eventual national champ based on just first round performances I'd go with Michigan State after seeing their cards in action for the first time.

UC-Davis is good with another dominant big man (6-11 Brad Greene 6 points, 8 rebounds, 4 blocks) and 6-9 Collin Welp (9, 4). With point guard Eyassu Welp (14 with three steals) scoring in the first half Cal-Davis led 36-33 at the half - before the 49 point second half explosion.

Perhaps the best inside-outside combo in the country started a run the went three minutes from the 14:25 to 11:22 mark. Xavier Tillman (10 points, 10 rebounds) grabbed and offensive miss and slammed it home, then Cassius Winston came down and hit a 3-pointer and was fouled - completing the 4-point play and it was suddenly 54-42.

The one of the truly great rebounders in the game, reserve Thomas Kithier, grabbed an offensive rebound and dishes to Tillman who slammed again, and Aaron Henry (19 points, 6 rebounds) followed with a 3-pointer to make it 59-45.

Henry matched Winston's fear with a 4-point play a few minutes later to make it 67-49, and the 45-21 run that closed the game included 3-poimters by six different Spartans and winning the boards, in the end 39-34 against taller Cal-Davis.

The only bad news is the the Spartans next play one of the other four teams with incredible dominating 1st round showings, Iowa Kentuck, Louisville and Baylor were the other three) match-up of two of the seven Big Ten teams in the second round of the season when the Big Ten really took over college basketball.

10-Arizona State 77, 7-Arizona 71

Back-up center and shot block extrordinar Jalen Graham blocked four shots in just 10 possessions to help Arizona State take a 32-26 lead, and they never trailed again to win 77-71.

Remy Martin, the www.valueaddbasketball.com 3rd team all-Pac 12 team, led the way with a game-high 17 points. In the real season Arizona State was blown out by their instate rivals early, but came back to upset them in the rematch and go 10-4 to close out, whole the Wildcats finished 2-4.

The NCAA would actually change team's seeds to avoid conference games in the 1st or even 2nd round when possible to avoid rematches, but for purposes of the game we went with bracketmatrix seeding and let the match-ups fall as they would, in this case Arizona was the western most 7-seed and Arizona State the western most 19-seed.

Josh Green and Zeke Nnaji, value add 3rd and 2nd team all-Pac 12 big men, both scored 11 to keep Arizona close.

Important rule update after 3/28/2020 Games. After the 15- and 16-seed teams played much better than expected overall and actually won 2 of 8 games, we the 100+ all-time great games played and ran some recalculations and determined the game had one statistical distortion and changed a rule to correct. Through games of 3/28 an offensive player getting a rebound could use the 20-sided die to shoot immediately. In reviewing past match-ups we reran numbers and realized this loophole took away the dunk range and defensive aspect of the game, letting big rebounders from lower divisions score more points than should have been allowed. Therefore games beginning on 3/29/2020 require that when a team gets an offensive rebound they roll all 4 dice again to run the office and see who gets the ball, and if it is stolen or turned over, etc. We did not change any results even though Villanova would have likely won their 1-point upset, though Florida State would have still been stunned by Little Rock.

2-San Diego State 77, 15-Eastern Washington 76

Luckily the www.valueaddbasketball.com National MVP Malachi Flynn survived the game that made us realize our rule was off on offensive rebounds, as Eastern Washington erased a double digit lead with two big men simply getting stick backs. While the change did not affect this game, Flynn's big night was enough to withstand the barrage and the rule is fixed for games moving forward.

Flynn was spectacular, showing why it is such a shame the real season was cancelled when both San Diego State and Dayton had their one true shot at a National Title.

Flynn's 21 points included four 3-pointers but perhaps more importantly drew 6 fouls.

5-BYU 83, 12-Stephen F. Austin 68

Almost all of the first 15 NCAA tournament games we played were tight, but the next two were dominant West Region performances. After Garza led Iowa to a blow out win by dominating inside (see below), BYU's Jake Toolson started the game with a bucket then a 3-pointer, and BYU stayed hot from start to finish in a 83-68 win over Stephen F. Austin (SFA).

Toolson finished with a team high 21 points, and TJ Haws hit a couple of back-breaking 3-pointers en route to 15 points. Three other Cougars hit double figures to send BYU to the second round against the Oregon-New Mexico State winner.

The game putting the runners up for conference player of the year based on the www.valueaddbasketball.com ratings. Toolson ranked 2nd behind only Jordan Ford of Saint Mary's to join two Gonzaga players on the all-West Coast Conference squad. Kevin Harris, who blistered the nets for 25 points including a lat gasp 4-point play to pull Stephen F. Austin within 74-64 with 8 possessions (5 minutes) to play, ranked second behind Sha'markus Kennedy of McNeese State in the Southland.

After the 4-poont play, John Comeaux came up with his third steal and took it on a fast break to try to pull SFA within single digits, but he could not convert at the other end, and BYU pulled away in the final minutes with a 9-4 closing run.

6-Iowa 79, 11-UCLA 49

Luke Garza ranked as the 4th best player at www.valueaddbaskerball.com, but it's hard to argue against player of the year after his 17 point, 9 rebound, 4 steal, 4 blocked shot game to power Iowa to the first true blowout of our tournament.

The win came despite us not using Connor McCaffery due to his season ending injury at the end of the season. Garza, Joe Wieskamp and McCaffery gave Iowa the greatest front line in the country. Ryan Kreiner filled in for McCaffery and despite playing much of the game with no stamina remaining (meaning every roll on his card is adjusted against him by one), he put up 17 points and 7 rebounds. Wieskamp added 12 points, 8 rebounds and 4 steals, as those three starters outscored the UCLA front line 46-17, outrebounded them 24-15, and only UCLA's 6 blocks by Jalen Hill stood out.

UCLA turned the ball over 22 times, the most of any team in the tournament so far. While Hill drew a 4th foul on Garza with 11:31 to play, Garza switched to guard the less aggressive Chris Smith and managed to avoid a 5th, while Smith eventually fouled out on a late drive by Wieskamp.

Not only was the margin a stunner, but based on the cards we actually had UCLA as a one point favorite despite being the worse seed. The team card shows Iowa as a +9 and UCLA a +6 making Iowa at full strength a 3-point favorite. However, Mccafferty's value add is 4.88, meaning on an average team he improves them by almost 5 points, but to determine his impact on Iowa you subtract the 1.02 which is the value of the 7th best player on the team, and losing McCaffery makes Iowa 3.86 points worse - or a 1-point underdog against a full-strength UCLA.

That being said, I include a note on the list of injured players I use here, but in looking further I don't see any reports that he was going to miss the Big Ten tournament, so perhaps that maywas a stray code from missing most of the 2019 season, and if so I will bring him back for Round 2.

9-USC 70, 8-Saint Mary's 68

USC dominated the boards to win 70-68. In the closing 5 minutes www.valueaddbasketball.com Pac-12 MVP and All-American Onyeka Okongwu (16 points, 12 rebounds) twice grabbed offensive rebounds on free throws and scored and grabbed the game-ending rebound when Saint Mary's Malik Fitts intentionally missed a final free throw down 70-67. Fritz hit the first free throw and intentionally missed the second, and since he was shooting as the center only the small forward or power forward could have gotten the rebound but Okongwa ripped it down regardless to wrap up the game.

Nick Rakocevic added 13 points and 16 rebounds and fouled Fitts on the last possession with USC leading 70-67 rather than risk an 8th 3-pointer in 44 possessions.  While the two big men outscored their Saint Mary's counter parts 29-16 in points and 28-13 in rebounds, Saint Mary's 7-2 edge in three-pointers was led by Tommy Kuhse with two and Tanner Krebs with three, and Jordan Ford was Saint Mary's high scorer with 15 as those three outscored their USC counterparts 37-23.

1-seed Gonzaga 69, 16-Prairie View A&M 68

Through 120 all-time great games we never had two near upsets as close as our first two 16 v 1 games in the 2020 tournament.

Gonzaga missed 8 straight free throws down the stretch to let Prairie View A & M rally and take a shocking 68-67 lead with 30 seconds to go. On Gonzaga's last trip Corey Kispert missed, and Filip Petrusev rebounded but missedz Kispert rebounded but missed again, Petrusev rebounded and missed again, and finally Drew Timme rebounded and was fouled. A 60% free throw player (1-12) on the 20-sided die, Timme had missed 4 straight but hit them both to pull off the 69-68 win.

While commentators talked about how much more balanced and ripe for upsets this tournament should be, the "average win by 14" on Gonzaga's team card and "average lose by 6" on Prairie View's card indicates in 1000 simulated games Gonzaga would average beating Prairie View by 20 based on the cards - but as Celtic's coach Brad Steven's reminds usz 1 in 6 times you play terribly and you aren't that bad, and one in 6 games you play fantastic and you aren't that good.

If this were the real tournament gonzaga could hope this was just their one bad game of 6 rather than just a game of bad dice rolls.

If you look closely at the dunk ranges next to the teams, Prairie View A&M dunks on a 51 only and their steal ranges are all reduced by 2, while Gonzaga dunks on rolls of 51-62 and their turnover ranges are reduced by 2. In the advanced game rules you will see that any time a team's dunk ranges is at least 51-60 their turnover range is reduced by 2 for each player and their opponent's steal ranges are reduced by 2 to make up for the fact that there is really no dice combination of 57, 58, 59 or 60 since these are two six sided dice. If the range is 51-57 then the opposing team loses 1 steal number, if 51-58 then that happens and the team gets on fewer turnover number. If 51-59 then the opponent loses 2 steal numbers plus the one lower turnover.

16-seed playin - Prairie View A&M 78, Robert Morris 60

SWAC www.valueaddbasketball.com MVP Gerard Andrus (16 points, 5 rebounds) joined with fellow all-swac teammate Devonte Patterson (14, 9) to help Prairie View dominate the boards 39-28 to advance 78-60 to face Gonzaga.

Darius Williams, one of the national leaders in steals, came up with a steal and fast break layup to stretch the lead to double figures for the first time (56-45) and later out the nail in the coffin with a steal and pass ahead to Chancellor Ellis, who hit a 3-pointer to make it 68-54.

All-NEC players Josh Williams (18) and AJ Bramah combined for 29 in the losing effort for Robert Morris.

Next game

East Region Results 2020 March Madness

This Value Add Basketball Game plays out the NCAA 2020 Tournament using these player cards. Game summaries will be included below the bracket, with the most recent result always moved to the top story until we have a East Region Champion from among these teams.

10-Indiana 86, 15-Northern Kentucky 68

  • Indiana - 6-11 center Joey Brunk (24,7) 6-9 All-Big Ten Trayce Jackson-Davis (25,7) helped Indiana win rebounding battle 35-28 against North Kentucky trio that dominated boards to stun Villanova.
  • Northern Kentucky's Silas Adheke (7,5), Adrian Nelson (3,6) and all-Horizon www.valueaddbasketball.com 1st team player Dantez Walton (13,5) who all pounded the offensive boards for baskets against a smaller Villanova team in the first round stunner. The lower half of this bracket featured upsets in all 4 games (7 of the other 28 games were upsets). 

11-NC State 75, 14-Hofstra 73
  • CJ Bryce (14 points) beat the buzzer to win 75-73 after Hofstra's Tareq Coburn tied it with a 3 and Desure Buie followed his 30 pts vs. Maryland with 17. Buie scored 29 as Hofstra won their only actual Quad 1 game by double digits. NC State's Devon Daniels dominated with 24 points, and had a blocked shot and basket at the other end to make it 73-70 before Coburn's game-tying 3 pointer.

4-Louisville 88, 12-Yale 82

All-ACC www.valueaddbasketball.com 1st teamers Jordan Nwora (25 pts) and Ryan McMahan (12 with key 3-pointer and 3 key steals) held off a red hot Yale team 88-82.

Two of the best outside shooters in the game - Eric Monroe (18 pts, 4 3-pointers) and Azar Swaim (23,1), combined with the almost unstoppable inside game of Paul Atkinson (23 points).

Yale did an incredible job of both drawing 26 fouls, and avoiding committing them (13), and McMahon, Nwora and center Steven Enoch (10,8) all played a long stretch of the game with four fouls. Losing any of them would have been very tough, but they all avoided the 5th foul until Enoch fouled out with 53 seconds left and Louisville leading 83-74.

1-Dayton 95, 9-Rutgers 68

Newly named Naismith National Player of the Year Obi Toppin (14 points, 10 rebounds, 5 blocks) teamed up with two other www.valueaddbasketball.com 1st team All-A10 players Jalen Crutcher (22 points) and Trey Landers (17) to set the all-time game record with 95 points.

The 1.36 points per 69 possessions (teams get 66 possessions per game plus Amy added during the last 9 possessions for fouls or fastbreak steals) shattered the high of 83 by BYU through 36 tournament games to date. The Colorado 88-86 win over Marquette provided the second and third highest scores, but that was the on 1st round game to go into overtime.

1st Round Games:

11-NC State 64, 6-Penn State 60

After losing a 9-point lead to fall behind 48-47, NC State rallied behind Devon Daniels to defeat Penn State.

Daniels (17 points, 5 steals) hit his only 3-pointer of the game to make it 50-48, then stole it four of the next five possessions to make it 57-50. Durong that span  he twice scored on fast breaks and on another one passed to Braxton Beverly who hit a 3-pointer. Penn State was never closer than the 4-point final margin again despite Lamar Stevens 14 points and 10 rebounds.

The Big Ten fell to a still impressive 5-2 with three 1st round games remaining. The East Region wrapped up with a clear path for Dayton or Louisville - the only two of eight better seeds to win though based on the cards Indiana was favored over Virginia despite being the 10th seed.

The 2-6 mark in the East contrasts with the 14-2 mark of better seeds in the other regions.

14-Hofstra 79, 3-  Maryland 55

All-CAA www.valueaddbasketball.com point guard Desure Buie turned in the performance of the tournament so far by drawing 8 fouls including drawing two fouls shooting 3-pointers that  led to All-Big Ten point guard Anthony Cowan fouling out. Maryland's offense ground to a halt with not true point guard to replace him, which limited the chances to get the ball to 2nd team All-American Jalen Smith (13 points, 10 rebounds, 4 blocked shots).

(In the game if no true point guard usnon the court the team can only get shots up on a 1-5 roll on the 8-sided die, meaning Jalen Smith was only getting the ball on "5" and not "8" and if a second 6-8 was rolled Maryland committed a shot clock violation.)

Buie finished with 30 points on four 3-pointers and he and his fellow All-CAA teammate Eli Pemberton (12 points, 6 rebounds) both had three steals as Hofstra won the turnover battle 19-12.

Really, 30 points by 5-11 CAA player against elite competition? I had not seen Hofstra play this year so looked them up after the game. They won their only quad 1 game at UCLA by double figures. Buie had 29 points and 7 assists. He did this taking 12 shots!!!! The way you know if a player is shooting too much is he should average 1.25 points per shot taken (by making shots or drawing fouls and making free throws). He should have had 15 points if he took 12 shots - he just missed doubling that with 5-8 2-pointers, 2-4 3-pointers and 13-13 free throws at Pauley Pavilion - that's insane.

The upset ended a streak for the dominant Big Ten which is now 5-1 in the tournament with 4 teams still to play 1st round games.

Ironically the worse seed is 5-2 in the East Region and only 2-14 in the other three regions, though many of the tighter seeds still need to play. Despite the win for the CAA, the Big Ten is still as dominant in this tournament as they were in the real 2020 regular season with the following number of teams in the second round, or still waiting to play their 1st round game:

Big Ten (5 to 9 2nd round teams): Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, Rutgers in 2nd round, Illinois, Michigan State, Penn State and Wisconsin still alive.

Big 12 (2 to 5): Baylor and Kansas in 2nd round, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, West Virginia still alive.

Pac12 (3 to 4): USC, Colorado and Arizona-Arizona State winner in 2nd round, Oregon still alive.

ACC (2 to 3): Duke and Louisville in 2nd round, NC State still alive.

SEC (2 to 3): Kentucky, LSU in second round, Auburn still alive.

Big East (2): Seton Hall and Creighton in 2nd round.

WCC (2): Gonzaga and BYU in second round.

6 to 12 from one team conferences, led by San Diego State and Dayton.

4-Louisville 81, 13-Vermont 71

All-ACC www.valueaddbasketball.com 1st team players Jordan Nworka (21 points, 6 rebounds, 3 three-pointers) and Dwayne Sutton (10, 6, 1) combined with three more 3-pointers by sharp-shooter Ryan McMahan with one of the four most impressive opening round wins.

Only Baylor, Iowa and cross state Kentucky looked as dominant in the tourney so far as they shot out to a 62-41 dominant lead and then fouled out American East MVP Everett Duncan.

Vermont is the on team in www.valueaddbasketball.com with four of five 1st team All-Conference players, but Duncan (7 points, 4 rebounds), Stef Smith (14,3) and Ryan Davis (6,8) were held in check by Louisville's tough defense. Only a late explosion by the final All-American East 1st reamer Anthony Lamb (17, 5 with 5 blocked shots tightened the score in the last few minutes to 81-71.

Louisville looks like a contender, particularly with upset winner Yale facing them in the second round, though Dayton could await in the third round. So far favorites are 2-4 in the East, 14-2 in the other three brackets.

10-Indiana 61, 7-Virginia 44

Trayce Jackson-Davis, a www.valueaddbasketball.com All-Big Ten player, dominated the offensively challenged defending national champions. Jackson-Davis (16 points, 9 rebounds, 8 blocked shots) led a defensive effort that held UVa to game record scoring low 44 points in the 61-44 final.

Teams normally have a "dunk range" that averages 51-53, but because UVa's offense was so weak (49) and defense was so strong (-6) both teams had a negative dunk range meaning rolls of 51-52 were stops for both teams - no score.

After the 20-20 game start, the game featured only 5 field goals total between the two teams in the first 18 possessions for each team (36 total possessions). At that point with 26 possessions (15:38) to play, Indiana grabbed four straight offensive rebounds with Mamadi Diakite finally fouling Jackson-Davis, who hit both free throws to make it 35-26.

The blocked shots and 45-36 rebounding edge helped keep UVa's two 2nd team www.valueadsbasketball.com All-ACC players Jay Huff (8 points, 7 rebounds) and Diakite (9, 8 and 4 blocks) or any other Cavalier from hitting double figures.

While UVA was the better seed based on the bracketmatrix seeding, the cards actually show Indiana would be a favorite, as their average score in a game against the 120th best team (of 353) calculates as a 69-60 win, while UVa's cards calculate 3 points worse at a 58-52.

12-Yale 71, 5-Butler 66

As a Big East fan, I hated to play two straight upsets. While Villanova's loss was somewhat the fluke of the game (see below), Yale was a legit tough matchup for Butler.

Like Butler they never foul, and for much of the game their superstar 6-10 Paul Atkinson (25 points, 9 rebounds) was three inches taller than any Butler player, and Yale defensive star Jordan Bruner (14, 9 with 2 steals and 2 blocks) was the next tallest.

Butler had trouble getting it to their superstar and www.valueaddbasketball.com 3rd team All-American Sean McDermott (10, 9) who gave a ray of hope when his four point play started a 12-3 rally that gave Butler one of their few leads at 41-40.

Butler was within a couple of points from the 5-minute mark until Eric Monroe hit a back breaking 3-pointer with 2:07 (4 possessions) to play to make it 68-62, then Atkinson dunked to make it 70-64 with 1:30 (3 possessions) to play.

With only two 3-pointers made in the game, Butler put two extra 3-point shooters in the game so that four of the players on the floor were either 1-4 or 1-5 on 3-pointers mad and they went for the three which stretched those cards to 1-5 to 1-7 for 3-pointers made, but still could not find one on their last three trips to lose 71-66.

Going for a 3-pointer increases your three point range by 1 for every 2-pointer made that you can lower the top of the 2-point range. It is only a late desperation strategy since for every number it changes from a 2-pointer made to 3-pointer made (one extra point) you lose the top number in your 2-point range to a missed shot (so losing 2 for gaining 1 let card). You can no more than double the 3-pointers made even if you have more 2-pointers made remaining.

Important rule update after 3/28/2020 Games. After the 15- and 16-seed teams played much better than expected overall and actually won 2 of 8 games, we the 100+ all-time great games played and ran some recalculations and determined the game had one statistical distortion and changed a rule to correct. Through games of 3/28 an offensive player getting a rebound could use the 20-sided die to shoot immediately. In reviewing past match-ups we reran numbers and realized this loophole took away the dunk range and defensive aspect of the game, letting big rebounders from lower divisions score more points than should have been allowed. Therefore games beginning on 3/29/2020 require that when a team gets an offensive rebound they roll all 4 dice again to run the office and see who gets the ball, and if it is stolen or turned over, etc. We did not change any results even though Villanova would have likely won their 1-point upset, though Florida State would have still been upsets stunned by Little Rock.

15-Northern Kentucky 68, 2-Villanova 66

The Northern Kentucky team that held Arkansas to 66 points in Arkansas in their only quad 1 game in the real season, did the same to Villanova on a neutral court and it was just enough. In their last real home game Nova scores only 54 points as the live by the 3 die by the three seemed to catch up with the.

While 2020 did seem to be the year of parity where anyone could be beaten (including a record number of No.1s losing), two upsets by 15-seeds and 3 of 4 16-seeds keeping it to single digits losses seems unlikely in the same years.

However Villanova did show long stretches of stagnant offense when 3-pointers were not falling and that's what happened in Horizon League Northern Kentucky's win that would have been the biggest for the league since Butler's two runs to the title game.

Based on www.valueaddbasketball.com, this was one of the most balanced teams in the country with Dantez Walton (team high 17 points) making 1st team all-Horizon but three additional staters on the 2nd team - Tyler Sharpe, Jalen Tate and Adrian Nelson.

With 2 of 3 Nova sharp-shooters (Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore) not hitting any 3-pointers it was up to Saddiq Bey to tie the game twice with 3-pointers at 26-26 and 39-39 and finish with 22 points and three 3-pointers. However Villanova could not hold a 63-58 lead with 6 possessions (3:45) to play. The game ended with Gillespie (17 points) hitting a free throw and then intentionally missing the second down 68-66, but Nelson grabbed the rebound to seal the upset.

Maybe it would have been a crazy VCU-Butler type wide open year.

8-seed Rutgers 66, 9-seed Providence 65

Providence played their normal great defense with David Duke getting 4 steals to go along with his game-high 14 points and Alpha Diallo holding Rutgers' star Ron Harper to 9 points.

However after Rutgers' Akwasi Yeboah (team-high 13 points) and Diallo (10) traded last baskets as the lead went back and forth, the game came down to the final possession. Diallo blocked Harper's shot but dominant offensive rebounders Myles Johnson grabbed the block for his 14th rebound and scores to give Rutgers a 66-65 win and chance to play Dayton in the second round.

1-seed Dayton 93, 16-seed Siena 85

A third 1-seed had to overcome a ridiculously hot shooting 16-seed led by Siena's Jalen Pickett (the www.valueaddbasketball.com conference MVP and good enough for most all-conferemce teams). Pickett scored 26 including three 3-pointers and the third best MAAC player Elijah Burns added 14 inside points.

In addition Dayton's Ryan Mikesell and Rodney Chatman both fouled out.

That made it nice to have perhaps the best player in the country Obi Toppin put up 32 points, 10 rebounds and 4 blocked shots and the second best A10 player Jalen Crutcher hit five 3-pointers en route to 21 points and the 93-85 win.

11-seed playing game: NC State 71, Richmond 67
This game had the twists and turns of many March Madness games, as both teams struggled in the first half. The Richmond Spiders great Jacob Gillyard lead a great defensive effort that gave the Spiders a 28-24 half time lead. However, NC State's great shot blocker Manny Bates, one of the few players who blocks a shot taken by any player on rolls of 32, blocked shots on the last two Richmond trips of the half to keep it close.

However, NC State's CJ Bryce (game-high 23 points) heated up in the second half, dunking with 16:22 (27 possessions) to play for NC State's first lead (33-32) and then hitting a 3-pointer on the next trip to make it 36-34.

However, Richmond regained the lead on a 4-point play by Gillyard with 6:05 (10 possessions) to play to make it 60-57 Richmond. NC State never lead again until the final two possessions (1:15 to play) when Bryce scored to make it 69-67 Wolfpack, and then on the defensive NC State center DJ Funderbunk ripped down a very difficult rebound away from Richmond players, and passed to Markel Johnson who clinched the 71-67 win with a basket.

Link to Player Cards and who is injured for 2020 NCAA/NIT Teams

To print out the 11 player cards for the following 100 teams projected to go to the NCAA or NIT tournament in 2020, start by looking below to see the pages on which they appear. Then click on this link of public image files, and use the arrows to get to the team's three pages. Open one at a time and click the print icon. Each page includes four players, so cut cards apart. You can click on the score short below the list of teams and print it out as well to play the game.

We also listed any player listed as out for the season on this link, and in our tournament are not using them. However, I may need to check deeper as Connor McCaffery - who has struggled with availability throughout his life due to cancer treatments as a teenager, showed up on this list as out for the season even though it looks like he has fought through throwing up and down questionable games this year. I played their tourney opener without him and luckily for the integrity of the game his backup played great and they beat UCLA, but I am trying to get more info to see if I should be using his card in the second game.

TeamPagesBracket BlogPlayers Out for Season
AkronPages 1-3MidwestAll Players Available
AlabamaPages 4-6NITJuwan Gary, James Rojas, Jahvon Quinerly
ArizonaPages 7-9WestAll Players Available
Arizona St.Pages 10-12WestAll Players Available
ArkansasPages 13-15NITJD Notae, Connor Vanover
AuburnPages 16-18SouthAll Players Available
BaylorPages 19-21SouthAdam Flagler
BelmontPages 22-24SouthAll Players Available
Boston UniversityPages 25-27MidwestAll Players Available
BradleyPages 28-30MidwestRienk Mast
ButlerPages 31-33EastChristian David, Campbell Donovan
BYUPages 34-36WestRichard Harward
CincinnatiPages 37-39MidwestJeremiah Davenport, Prince Gilliam Toyambi
ColgatePages 40-42NITAll Players Available
ColoradoPages 43-45MidwestAll Players Available
ConnecticutPages 46-48NITTyler Polley, Richie Springs, RJ Cole
CreightonPages 49-51MidwestAntwann Jones, Davion Mintz
DaytonPages 52-54EastMoulaye Sissoko
DukePages 55-57SouthAll Players Available
East Tennessee St.Pages 58-60SouthAll Players Available
Eastern WashingtonPages 61-63WestAll Players Available
FloridaPages 64-66SouthTyree Appleby, Anthony Duruji
Florida St.Pages 67-69SouthAll Players Available
FurmanPages 70-72NITAll Players Available
GeorgetownPages 73-75NITMalcolm Wilson
GonzagaPages 76-78WestAnton Watson, Oumar Ballo
HofstraPages 79-81EastAll Players Available
HoustonPages 82-84SouthCameron Tyson
IllinoisPages 85-87MidwestJacob Grandison
IndianaPages 88-90EastAll Players Available
IowaPages 91-93WestJordan Bohannon, Patrick McCaffery, Jack Nunge
KansasPages 94-96MidwestMitch Lightfoot, Jalen Wilson
KentuckyPages 97-99SouthKahlil Whitney
LibertyPages 100-102SouthAll Players Available
Little RockPages 103-105SouthAlsean Evans, Kris Bankston
Louisiana TechPages 106-108NITIsaiah Crawford
LouisvillePages 109-111EastAll Players Available
LSUPages 112-114SouthJosh LeBlanc, Shareef O'Neal
MarquettePages 115-117MidwestEd Morrow
MarylandPages 118-120EastAll Players Available
MemphisPages 121-123NITJames Wiseman, , Isaiah Stokes
MerrimackPages 124-126NITAll Players Available
MichiganPages 127-129MidwestAll Players Available
Michigan St.Pages 130-132WestJoshua Langford, Joey Hauser
MinnesotaPages 133-135NITEric Curry
Mississippi St.Pages 136-138NITTolu Smith
Murray St.Pages 139-141NITAll Players Available
N.C. StatePages 142-144EastThomas Allen
New Mexico St.Pages 145-147WestAll Players Available
North Carolina CentralPages 148-150MidwestAll Players Available
North Dakota St.Pages 151-153MidwestAll Players Available
North FloridaPages 154-156NITAll Players Available
North TexasPages 157-159SouthAll Players Available
Northern IowaPages 160-162NITAll Players Available
Northern KentuckyPages 163-165EastAll Players Available
Notre DamePages 166-168NITRobby Carmody, Cormac Ryan
Ohio St.Pages 169-171MidwestAll Players Available
OklahomaPages 172-174MidwestAll Players Available
Oklahoma St.Pages 175-177NITChris Harris
OregonPages 178-180WestWill Johnson, Eric Williams Jr., Eugene Omoruyi
Penn St.Pages 181-183EastAll Players Available
Prairie View A&MPages 184-186WestAll Players Available
ProvidencePages 187-189EastNoah Horchler
PurduePages 190-192NITMason Gillis, Brandon Newman
RadfordPages 193-195NITAll Players Available
Rhode IslandPages 196-198NITJeremy Sheppard
RichmondPages 199-201EastAll Players Available
Robert MorrisPages 202-204WestAll Players Available
RutgersPages 205-207EastAll Players Available
Saint LouisPages 208-210NITGibson Jimerson, Fred Thatch
Saint Mary'sPages 211-213WestAll Players Available
San Diego St.Pages 214-216WestAll Players Available
Seton HallPages 217-219MidwestTakal Molson
SienaPages 220-222EastAll Players Available
South AlabamaPages 223-225NITDeaundrae Ballard, Sam Iorio
South CarolinaPages 226-228NITSeventh Woods
South Dakota St.Pages 229-231NITAll Players Available
St. John'sPages 232-234NITMustapha Heron, Johnathan McGriff
StanfordPages 235-237NITKodye Pugh
Stephen F. AustinPages 238-240WestAll Players Available
SyracusePages 241-243NITAll Players Available
TennesseePages 244-246NITLamonte Turner, Victor Bailey Jr.
TexasPages 247-249NITAll Players Available
Texas TechPages 250-252SouthJoel Ntambwe
TulsaPages 253-255NITCurtis Haywood II
UC IrvinePages 256-258WestAll Players Available
UCLAPages 259-261WestKenneth Nwuba
USCPages 262-264WestAll Players Available
Utah St.Pages 265-267MidwestAll Players Available
VCUPages 268-270NITAll Players Available
VermontPages 271-273EastJustin Mazzulla
VillanovaPages 274-276EastCaleb Daniels
VirginiaPages 277-279EastSam Hauser
West VirginiaPages 280-282SouthAll Players Available
Wichita St.Pages 283-285MidwestAll Players Available
WinthropPages 286-288SouthAll Players Available
WisconsinPages 289-291MidwestJoe Hedstrom
Wright St.Pages 292-294NITTim Finke
XavierPages 295-297NITAll Players Available
YalePages 298-300EastAll Players Available

South Region Results 2020 March Madness

This Value Add Basketball Game plays out the NCAA 2020 Tournament using these player cards. Game summaries will be included below the bracket, with the most recent result always moved to the top story until we have a South Region Champion from among these teams. Other Regions here.

2nd round

15-Little Rock 72, Houston 58

  • The Sweet 16 gained one true Cinderella in the last 2nd round game. Little Rock - brought back memories of the shockers at San Diego State, Tulsa and in March Madness over Purdue in 2016 when PG Markquis Nowell (19 pts, 6 stl) helped force 23 Houston turnovers for a 72-58 stunner.
  • Sun Belt www.valueaddbasketball.com player of the year Ruot Monyyong added 15 points, 10 rebounds, 2 steals and 2 blocks.
  • Value Add 3rd team All-American Nate Hinton scored 12 and grabbed 8 rebounds, but the guards just couldn't get him the ball nearly enough.

4-Kentucky 85, 5-Auburn 75

www.valueaddbasketball.com SEC runner up for MVP Immanauel Quickley (22 points) won a high level matchup against 2nd team all-SEC SG Samir Doughty (20 before fouling out). The PGs also played great, with Kentucky's Ashton Hagan (20 and 4 steals) matching J'Von McCormick (17).

The guard play overshadowed Austin Wiley's 16 points and 12 rebounds.

3-Duke 75, 11-East Tennessee State 68

Jordan Goldwater (5 steals) held www.valueaddbasketball.com Southern Conference MVP Isaiah Tisdale to 10 points and the other 4 Duke scorers hit double figures. Tisdale and PG Daivien Williamson hit back to back 3s to pull within 65-62 with 4:35 to play but Vernon Carey (game high 15) went inside down the stretch including drawing a 5th foul on ETSU's center.

1-Baylor 100, 8-LSU 94 in double OT

In perhaps the most exiting table top sports game I've ever played, Baylor rallied from down 45-32 to force not one, but two overtimes on buzzer beaters to pull off a 100-94 win.

The end of the 1st overtime was the most unlikely after www.valueaddbasketball.com 1st team All-SEC point guard Javonte Smart scored his 24th point to give LSU a 84-81 lead. Baylor brought in an extra 3-pointer shooter Matthew Mayer for the first time on their last trip, but he was fouled. A la UVA 2019, he made the first one and intentionally missed the second, a scenario in which the offense only gets the free throw about 1 in 6 times, but Freddie Gillespie grabbed his 20th rebound, and passed to Jared Butler who scored to tie it at 84-84.

Gillespie (18 points, 22 rebounds, 7 blocked shots) at 6-foot-9 is the one big guy on a 6-foot-3 and under team. In the rally from down 13 he three times grabbed an offensive rebound and kicked it out to a teammate, and twice grabbed an offensive rebound and dunked, including to beat the buzzer in regulation at 67-67.

It's still hard to say if he would have received game MVP of if that would have gone to Jared Butler (33 points, 6 rebounds, 5 steals), who moved to point guard after Davion Mitchell fouled out guarding LSU's Mays (24 points, 8 steals as www.valueaddbasketball.com all-SEC 1st team).

With 1:30 to go in the second overtime Butler drive and drew the crucial 5th foul on Mitchell and then hit both free throws to tie the game 90-90. While Butler qualifies as a point guard and this could take over the offense when Mitchell fouled out, Mays is the only qualified PG for LSU which led to three turnovers in the final 1:30 (see rules for playing without a point guard).

1st round
7-seed Houston 66, 10-seed Texas Tech 64

Nate Hinton, the www.valueaddbasketball.com 3rd team All-American, capped a double-double with a dunk to avoid overtime and propel Houston to a 66-64 win.

Texas Tech, along with Auburn one of two 2019 Final Four teams who played well in the all-time tournament, used an incredible 10-0 run between the 5:00 mark and 3:21 mark to take their first lead 56-54.

With 9 possessions to go Kyler Edwards drove and scored while drawing a foul, hitting the free throw to pull Texas Tech within 54-49. The play was particularly important because it was the All-American Hinton's 4th foul, and anytime a team draws a foul or is able to steal and fastbreak in the last 9 possessions, it creates an extra possession (see the scores recorded above the diagonal lines on from possessions 9 to 1 and note some of those possessions also have a score below the diagonal line to indicate what happened above the line created that extra possession).

David Moretti (16 points, 3 steals who starred in last year's run to the title game) stole the ball and scored on the fastbreak, then TJ Holyfield grabbed a missed shot and scored to make it 54-53. Two possessions later Moretti drilled a 3-pointer to cap the 10-0, 1 minute 39 second stretch to make it 56-54 Texas Tech with 3:21 to play.

Houston did not regain the lead until 1:30 to play when Marc Sasser (8 points, 2 three-pointers) grabbed his 3rd steal and passed ahead on the fastbreak to Caleb Mills (13 points) who drilled his second 3-pointer and was fouled completing the 4-point play for a 61-58 lead. Note: 
When a player grabs and offensive rebound or steals the ball and chooses to fastbreak, his team's chances of scoring improves because the 20-sided die roll is lowered by 1. The player getting the steal has a 50-50 chance of finishing with the ball since he gets the ball on the 8-sided die on a 6, 7 or 8 while a 1-5 roll goes to the possession. However when it is the player who grabbed a rebound all 3-pointers are changed ton2-pointers.

Despite Sasser's 2nd 3-pointer in the closing minutes, Texas Tech scored on their last three possessions to keep the pressure up before Hinton's game winning slam.

5- seed Auburn 65, 12- seed Liberty 56

With 5:49 to play and Auburn clinging to a 53-50 lead, it looked like the game might come down to whether www.valueaddbasketball.com ASun MVP Scottie James (12 points, 10 rebounds) or his counterpart center Austin Wiley (12 points, 12 rebounds, 5 blocks) would draw a 5th foul to get the other out of the game. Both ranked in the top 4% of all players this season, and with Wiley being perhaps the best rebounder in the game and James almost as good, neither team could afford to rest their center down the stretch.

Liberty never led, but all-ASun 1st teamers Georgie Pacheco-Ortiz (point guard who helped force 15 Auburn turnovers) and Caleb Homesley (team high 14 points and two of Liberty's five three pointers) helped the Flames' strong defense hold Auburn to one 3-pointer. They stayed within a few points most of the game until the final five points and tied at 31 and 47.

However Auburn had the ace in www.valueaddbasketball.com 2nd team all-SEC shooting guard Samir Doughty, who took over after the 53-50 score.

Doughty grabbed an offensive rebound and scores to make it 55-50, dunked to make it 57-50, dunked to make it 60-52 and put a nail in the coffin with Auburn's only 3-pointer to make it 63-52. That eight points in a 10-2 run helped him finish with a game-high 20 points and 9 rebounds to help Auburn dominate the boards 44-29.

11-East Tennessee State 66, West Virginia 65

Despite a classic gritty lock down Bob Huggins' defense that recorded stops the first 12 possessions for East Tennessee State and www.valueaddbasketball.com Southern Conference MVP Isaiah Tisdale.

After the mandatory 20-20 start to the Value Add Basketball Game, the game made it to 19:17 remaining with West Virginia pitching a shutout - 29-20.

After Tray Boyd finally scored to make it 29-22* Tisdale scored and then ETSU found they scoring from behind the arc with three 3-pointers and on another occasion three free throws over just 6 possessions capped by a Tisdale 3. Boyd then scored to tie the game for the first time at 39.

In the final 5 minutes the game was tied at 51, 53, 55, 57, 59 and 61 until Davivien Williamson (13 points) hit a 3-pointer with 1:30 to play to give ETSU a 64-61 lead.

Miles McBride (game high 16) pulled West Virginia back within 64-63. However after both teams came up empty, ETSU missed a shot and only to have Lucas N'Guessan (13 points, game-high 10 rebounds) grab one offensive rebound then Bo Hodges tap it in on a second rebound to make it 66-63 with 16 seconds to go.

West Virginia missed one last 3-pointer and www.valueaddbasketball.com 2nd team All-Big 12 player Oscar Tshiebwe tapped it in to make it 66-65, but the Mountaineers could not get the ball back.

4-Kentucky 80, 13-North Texas 60

After North Texas took a 34-26, it was all Kentucky due in part to Ashton Hagan's game-record 10 steals.

Important rule update after 3/28/2020 Games. After the 15- and 16-seed teams played much better than expected overall and actually won 2 of 8 games, we the 100+ all-time great games played and ran some recalculations and determined the game had one statistical distortion and changed a rule to correct. Through games of 3/28 an offensive player getting a rebound could use the 20-sided die to shoot immediately. In reviewing past match-ups we reran numbers and realized this loophole took away the dunk range and defensive aspect of the game, letting big rebounders from lower divisions score more points than should have been allowed. Therefore games beginning on 3/29/2020 require that when a team gets an offensive rebound they roll all 4 dice again to run the office and see who gets the ball, and if it is stolen or turned over, etc. We did not change any results even though Villanova would have likely won their 1-point upset, though Florida State would have still been upsets stunned by Little Rock.

15-Little Rock 76, Florida State 63

After a few close calls, game 18 of our tournament yielded the first huge upset.

Florida State historical drawfs opponents, but Sun Belt www.valueaddbasketball.com mvp Rout Monyyong dominated the Seminoles with 17 points and 15 rebounds. At 6-foot-10 he received support off the bench from 7-foot Admit Besovic and 6-foot-10 Nikola Maric as Little Rock recorded an amazing 45 rebounds to eliminate the Seminoles 76-63.

If this were the actual tournament instead of a simulation, Little Rock would have been the third 15-seed to handle a 2-seed relatively easily in the last 8 years following Florida Gulf Coast's dunk feat over Georgetown (78-68) and Middle Tennessee State scoring at will against Michigan State (90-81).

In addition to the big guys, 5-foot-7 Markquis Nowell scores 16 and added three steals.

ACC www.valueaddbasketball.com MVP Devin Vassell was the only Seminole in double figures with 13 points and 10 rebounds.

Florida was a 10-point favorite, making them the first team in the tournament favorite by more than 1-point to lose.

3-seed Duke 70, 14-seed Belmont 67

Duke appeared to wrap the game up when Jordan Goldwire came up with steals on consecutive possessions and hitting 3-pointers on consecutive trips to give Duke a 64-56 lead. Tre Jones then stretched the lead to 68-58 with just 6 possessions (3:45 to play).

However Jones had 4 fouls and had to let Cassius' Stanley guard OVC MVP Grayson Murphy, who let Belmont all the way back to 68-67 onna steal and 3-pointer of his own with 3 possessions (1:52 to go).

Vernon Carey came up with tough defensive rebounds few players could have gotten after Belmont misses on the last 2 trips and Duke prevailed. Murphy had a game-high 17 points, while Duke was led.by Carey and Jones with 15 each.

1-seed Baylor 77, 16-seed Winthrop 55

After three 16-seeds battled late trying to become UMBC from 2018, 1-seed Baylor dominated the final 1 vs. 16atch-up.

Mark Vital stole the ball three times early and even though he missed on fast breaks, Freddie Gillespie (one of the best offensive rebounders in the game) kept grabbing offensive rebounds and sticking them back in for baskets. While he doesn't look for shots that often, his five stickbacks accounted for part of his 20 point, 15 rebound game.

While none of the other four Baylor starters are taller than 6-foot-3, fellow superstars Jared Butler (17 points, 3 rebounds) and MaCio Teague (15,8) and the organizer point guard Davion Mitchell (16,4) helped the shorter Baylor winnthe boards 39-29, and Devonte Bandoo hit a key 3 as the only six Baylor players to play dominated. When Wintrop did get past them, Gillespie was there to block 5 shots.

Josh Jones and back-up Russell Jones had 10 apiece for Winthrop.

8-LSU 78, 9-Florida 74

Emmitt Williams recorded his 5th and 6th blocked shots last in the game and then Javonte Smart hit one of only 6 3-pointers in the game to stretch LSU's lead to 75-66 and they held on for a 78-74 win.

LSU had surprise big games out of Darius Days (12 points, 6 rebounds) and center Trendon Watford (22 points and 9 rebounds while holding Florida star center Kerry Blackshear to 16 points and 7 rebounds.