Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Team KenPom and Value Add Ratings Most Hurt by Injuries

Tres Tinkle was worth an extra 4.23 point per game to Oregon State as a freshman in 2016. Tinkle was off to a blistering start of this sophomore year, averaging 7.73 points per game through the first six games. If he kept up that pace, he would have finished as the 40th best player out of more than 4100 who played this year according to Value Add Basketball.

The future looked incredible in Oregon State's sixth game against Fresno State, when Tinkle put up an incredible 31 points, 10 rebounds and 6 steals, but the rest of the Beavers scored only 27 points combined in a narrow 63-58 loss. Unfortunately he broke his hand attempting to reject a dunk late in the game, and would not play again all year.

After 25 games of 0.0 Value Add Ratings because he could not play, Tinkle's overall Value Add for the season dropped to 1.59.

In calculating how much Oregon State was hurt by the broken hand, we subtract his final 1.59 overall average from the 7.73 pace he set in the six games he played to see it cost them 6.64 over the course of the season, but we take another 1.50 off of that total since every team has a few minor injuries. Put it together, and the loss of Tinkle cost Oregon State 5.14 points from their Team Value Add Ranking.
Value through those six games. Add those five points per game, and Oregon State starts 6-5 instead of 3-8 and goes into Pac-12 play with more confidence.

The only team hurt more than Oregon State by an injury over the course of a season was St. Joseph's due to the loss of Shavar Newkirk, who tore his ACL in the opening game of the A-10 season after scoring 20 points in eight of his first 11 games. His loss cost St. Joe's 6.98 points per game even after allowing for the 1.50.

The two biggest end of season injuries occurred to Georgia's Yante Maten, who had a chance to go All-American, and Chris Boucher, who might have given Oregon the inside play the need to beat UNC in the national semifinals. However, since both of these superstar players missed less than a half dozen games, their per game impact was not big enough to make this list. You can sort www.valueaddbasketball.com and type the "play" in the search field to pull up all info on major injuries.

RnkTeamPlayers Worth +2 points or more if healthy all yearGames PlayedWhat if' Value Add
1St. Joseph'sShavar Newkirk (if played other 19 gms)12 Gms6.98
2Oregon St.Tres Tinkle (if played other 25 gms)6 Gms5.14
3Texas SouthernDerrick Griffin (if played other 22 gms)13 Gms4.31
4NevadaElijah Foster (if played other 28 gms)7 Gms3.94
5ArizonaAllonzo Trier (if played other 19 gms)18 Gms3.76
6Maryland Kings CoMartez Harrison (if played other 27 gms)5 Gms3.75
7ConnecticutAlterique Gilbert (if played other 29 gms)3 Gms2.89
8TexasTevin Mack (if played other 18 gms)15 Gms2.87
9Northwestern St.Zeek Woodley (if played other 14 gms)11 Gms2.85
10UC IrvineLuke Nelson (if played other 17 gms)17 Gms2.83
11WagnerRomone Saunders (if played other 28 gms)1 Gms2.72
12OhioAntonio Campbell (if played other 16 gms)14 Gms2.68
13Texas El PasoTerry Winn (if played other 29 gms)2 Gms2.48
14XavierEdmond Sumner (if played other 17 gms)21 Gms2.4
15Bowling GreenJeffrey Uju (if played other 29 gms)2 Gms2.26
16Nevada Las VegasDwayne Morgan (if played other 24 gms)8 Gms2.06
17IndianaOG Anunoby (if played other 18 gms)16 Gms1.97
18CreightonMaurice Watson (if played other 16 gms)18 Gms1.73
19Southern CaliforniaBennie Boatwright (if played other 17 gms)19 Gms1.56
20Louisiana St.Craig Victor (if played other 23 gms)8 Gms1.55
21Illinois ChicagoDikembe Dixson (if played other 25 gms)9 Gms1.54
22New Mexico St.Sidy N'Dir (if played other 23 gms)8 Gms1.46
23PrincetonHenry Caruso (if played other 22 gms)7 Gms1.41
24Southern MississippiTim Rowe (if played other 23 gms)6 Gms1.33
25Santa ClaraKJ Feagin (if played other 13 gms)19 Gms1.33
26Grand CanyonJoshua Braun (if played other 9 gms)20 Gms1.27
27UC Santa BarbaraAmi Lakoju (if played other 18 gms)9 Gms1.22
28OklahomaJordan Woodard (if played other 11 gms)20 Gms1.18
29Ohio St.Keita Bates-Diop (if played other 23 gms)9 Gms1.14
30NJ Inst of TechnologyDamon Lynn (if played other 10 gms)19 Gms1.13
31ArmyAdam Roe (if played other 23 gms)8 Gms1.12
32Brigham YoungKyle Davis (if played other 21 gms)10 Gms1.02
33NortheasternJeremy Miller (if played other 15 gms)16 Gms0.98
34PennsylvaniaRyan Betley (if played other 10 gms)18 Gms0.95
35LibertyCaleb Homesley (if played other 24 gms)8 Gms0.93
36NortheasternDonnell Gresham (if played other 27 gms)4 Gms0.9
37East Tennessee St.Julian Walters (if played other 26 gms)7 Gms0.87
38ConnecticutTerry Larrier (if played other 28 gms)4 Gms0.85
39TennesseeJohn Fulkerson (if played other 21 gms)10 Gms0.8
40South CarolinaSindarius Thornwell (if played other 5 gms)31 Gms0.79
41New MexicoTim Williams (if played other 9 gms)22 Gms0.79
42TempleJosh Brown (if played other 26 gms)6 Gms0.78
43Virginia TechChris Clarke (if played other 9 gms)24 Gms0.76
44Fresno St.Karachi Edo (if played other 14 gms)17 Gms0.74
45UC Santa BarbaraJalen Canty (if played other 18 gms)9 Gms0.69
46WashingtonMarkelle Fultz (if played other 6 gms)25 Gms0.69
47George MasonDanny Dixon (if played other 27 gms)6 Gms0.6
48BinghamtonJC Show (if played other 19 gms)10 Gms0.58
49BuffaloQuate McKinzie (if played other 15 gms)15 Gms0.55
50DuquesneJosh Steel (if played other 30 gms)2 Gms0.53


Monday, April 10, 2017

Top 40 Freshman of 2017, Who Will Be Dominant Sophomores or NBA Players

Year after year, the stats prove even the greatest freshman basketball players are overrated. They simply turn the ball over too much, play bad defense and miss too many bad shots to be as valuable as players with at least one year under the belts. The only players who were truly the greatest players in the country their freshman season were Anthony Davis (greatest in history of ValueAdd in 2012), Michael Beasley (2008), Kevin Durant (2007) and Shelden Williams (2006).

This year, Value Add Basketball indicates 40 of the top 400 Value Add Basketball players were freshman, and for all the long-term potential of the top freshman Lonzo Ball, his value of 9.33 additional points a game for UCLA ranked 14th of all players. You can sort any current players or players going back to the 2002-03 season at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Here is the list of those 40 freshman, and their projected value in 2018 if they play their sophomore season. Many will be in the NBA, so any team with one or more of the other two dozen on this list start with a huge advantage for the 2017-18 season.

2017 RnkBest Freshman 2017TeamValue Add v5.0 Pts/Game2018 Proj
14Lonzo Ball #2UCLA9.33NBA
21Lauri Markkanen #10Arizona8.89NBA
36Malik Monk #5Kentucky7.79NBA
37Josh Jackson #11Kansas7.78NBA
43TJ Leaf #22UCLA7.62NBA
58Edrice Adebayo #3Kentucky7.31NBA
67Shamorie Ponds #2St. John's7.1310.01
69De'Aaron Fox #0Kentucky7.09NBA
72Bruce Brown #11Miami FL7.029.65
83Mike Watkins #24Penn St.6.789.36
92MaCio Teague #31UNC Asheville6.689.18
97Josh Okogie #5Georgia Tech6.628.65
98Justin Patton #23Creighton6.62NBA
99Dennis Smith #4North Carolina St.6.62NBA
111Jonathan Isaac #1Florida St.6.39NBA
113Zach Collins #32Gonzaga6.38NBA
116Robert Williams #44Texas A&M6.378.64
117Markelle Fultz #20Washington6.36NBA
123Jarrett Allen #31Texas6.29NBA
126Nick Ward #44Michigan St.6.278.36
142Grant Williams #2Tennessee6.138.16
145Landry Shamet #11Wichita St.6.128.12
147Miles Bridges #22Michigan St.6.06NBA
162Jayson Tatum #0Duke5.88NBA
201Andrew Jones #1Texas5.57.78
203Dazon Ingram #12Alabama5.497.75
260Rawle Alkins #1Arizona5.067.71
261Kevin Huerter #4Maryland5.067.72
285Amir Coffey #5Minnesota4.877.6
287Anthony Cowan #0Maryland4.857.38
305Kamar Baldwin #3Butler4.757.21
328Justin Jackson #21Maryland4.67.09
342Donte DiVincenzo #10Villanova4.477
347Sam Hauser #10Marquette4.436.77
351Danjel Purifoy #3Auburn4.416.68
356De'Anthony Melton #22Southern California4.366.29
358Markus Howard #0Marquette4.366.25
372Mustapha Heron #5Auburn4.286.12
388Sam Merrill #3Utah St.4.26.11
399Marcus LoVett #15St. John's4.176.02