Friday, May 29, 2020

NL Simulation Standings and Stats - Dodgers, Nationals and Braves on Top



The Statis-Pro senior circuit teams finished 10 games each. Unlike the AL which counts each game as a 3-game series with teams getting a sweep if they win by 5 or more, the NL plays it straight up with each game counting as a game.

Here is the update from the senior circuit.

The defending Statis-Pro NL champ Nationals ripped off 6-straight wins to start the season, before dropping 3-of-4 to come back to the pack.

The leaders are starting to separate a bit, but the wildcard race will definitely go down to the last day. The determination of seeding 3-6 will also go to the final regular season games.

Also unlike the AL, the NL takes time to compile stats. Early stats leaders from a quick 10-game sample.

Hitting
·         Marcell Ozuna, Atl [17-44] .386 (Braves lead NL Statis-Pro in scoring averaging 7.1 runs/game.
·         Starling Marte, Arz [17-45] .378
·         Kolten Wong, Stl     [16-43] .372

Home Runs
·         Ronald Acuna, Atl.          5
·         Bryce Harper, Phl            5
·         Juan Soto, Wsh                4

Runs Batted In
·         Jay Bruce, Phl                   13  [he is actually platooning, so only played 7-games]
·         Ronald Acuna, Atl            11
·         Eduardo Escobar, Arz     11

Starting Pitchers (3 starts)
·         Max Scherzer, Wsh                       23 IP, 2 ER, 2-0, 0.78 ERA
·         Madison Bumgarner, Arz             26 IP, 3 ER, 3-0, 1.04 ERA
·         Walker Buehler, LA                       23 IP, 4 ER, 2-1, 1.57 ERA

NOT HOT
·         Pete Alonso, NY, [9-39, .231, 1 HR, 2 RBI]
·         Christian Yelich, Mil, [5-35, .143, 0 HR, 1 RBI]

 Standings 

NL East
·         Washington       7-3
·         Atlanta                7-3
·         Philadelphia      5-5
·         Chicago               4-6
·         New York           1-9

NL West
·         Los Angeles        7-3
·         Arizona               6-4
·         St. Louis              5-5
·         Milwaukee         5-5
·         Cincinnati           3-7

Other NL teams were relegated and are only used by the AL for some interleague games.

In the AL we started with all 15 teams and let them play through 12 actual games each, including their 4 divisional opponents twice. Because our AL counts each game as 3 games - scoring it as a 2-1 series win unless a team wins after leading by at least 5 runs at the end of the 8th without using their closer.

At the "42-game" mark we dropped the teams below .500 which left 3 in each division. The angels then beat the blue Jays convincingly 5 games to 1, but they stay alive with these standings to date:

AL East
Tampa Bay 27-15
NY Yankees 25-17
Toronto 23-25

AL Central
Minnesota 27-21
Cleveland 24-18
Chicago White Sox 21-21

AL West
Houston 35-13
LA Angels 28-20
Oakland 24-18

Most recent AL Results

LA Angels won 5-1 then sweep 7-1 over Blue Jays


To get you started simulating the baseball season with the free Statis-Pro cards and games, we start you with a blog with Yankees and Dodgers cards and how to play the game, and then players for all 30 teams on this google sheet or the following links:



Sunday, May 24, 2020

Baseball Cards for Tigers, Twins and White Sox

To get you started simulating the baseball season with the free Statis-Pro cards and games, we start you with a blog with Yankees and Dodgers cards and how to play the game, and then players for all 30 teams on this google sheet or the following links:




  • Click here for player cards for the Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves and Brewers.
  • Click here for player cards for the Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants and Indians.
  • Click here for player cards for the Mariners, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Orioles, Padres, Phillies and Pirates.
  • Click here for player cards for the Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Rockies and Royals.
  • Click here for player cards for the Tigers, Twins and White Sox.




Baseball Cards for Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Rockies and Royals

To get you started simulating the baseball season with the free Statis-Pro cards and games, we start you with a blog with Yankees and Dodgers cards and how to play the game, and then players for all 30 teams on this google sheet or the following links:
  • Click here for player cards for the Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves and Brewers.
  • Click here for player cards for the Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants and Indians.
  • Click here for player cards for the Mariners, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Orioles, Padres, Phillies and Pirates.
  • Click here for player cards for the Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Rockies and Royals.
  • Click here for player cards for the Tigers, Twins and White Sox.



Best pitching in baseball with three 2-8 starters, four 2-8 relievers and a 2-9 ace. In a tough pitchers park (only 11-26 are home runs on deep flies) they just need to put together decent offense to contend with Yankees.


·         In our Statis-Pro season, due to season injury we will not use the card for BOSTON RED SOX Chris Sale, P
·



Baseball Cards for Mariners, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Orioles, Padres, Phillies and Pirates

To get you started simulating the baseball season with the free Statis-Pro cards and games, we start you with a blog with Yankees and Dodgers cards and how to play the game, and then players for all 30 teams on this google sheet or the following links:
  • Click here for player cards for the Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves and Brewers.
  • Click here for player cards for the Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants and Indians.
  • Click here for player cards for the Mariners, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Orioles, Padres, Phillies and Pirates.
  • Click here for player cards for the Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Rockies and Royals.
  • Click here for player cards for the Tigers, Twins and White Sox.


·         In our Statis-Pro season, due to season injury we will not use the card for NEW YORK METS Noah Syndergaard, P
·     


·         In our Statis-Pro season, due to season injury we will not use the card for BALTIMORE ORIOLES Trey Mancini, RF








Baseball Cards for Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants and Indians

To get you started simulating the baseball season with the free Statis-Pro cards and games, we start you with a blog with Yankees and Dodgers cards and how to play the game, and then players for all 30 teams on this google sheet or the following links:




  • Click here for player cards for the Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves and Brewers.
  • Click here for player cards for the Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants and Indians.
  • Click here for player cards for the Mariners, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Orioles, Padres, Phillies and Pirates.
  • Click here for player cards for the Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Rockies and Royals.
  • Click here for player cards for the Tigers, Twins and White Sox.






  • ·      In our Statis-Pro season, due to season injury we will not use the card for SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS Tyler Beede, P   



Still excellent but not as deep in all phases. Line-up can score a lot at the top, but now trails off. Still two 2-8 starters and a third 2-7 starter but then drops a 2-5 or worse with 4th starter and beyond. Hand still a strong closer at 2-8, but no other 2-8 relievers.

Baseball Cards for Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves and Brewers

To get you started simulating the baseball season with the free Statis-Pro cards and games, we start you with a blog with Yankees and Dodgers cards and how to play the game, and then players for all 30 teams on this google sheet or the following links:
  • Click here for player cards for the Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves and Brewers.
  • Click here for player cards for the Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants and Indians.
  • Click here for player cards for the Mariners, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Orioles, Padres, Phillies and Pirates.
  • Click here for player cards for the Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Rockies and Royals.
  • Click here for player cards for the Tigers, Twins and White Sox.
Action all starts with the pitcher's PB to determine if the action is on the pitcher's card or hitter's card.
  • 2-9: Pitcher controls action 83% of the time (rolls of 2-9), truly elite, top 5% of all pitchers and normally just an ace reliever.
  • 2-8 -Excellent, top ace starting pitcher as starters rarely are 2-9s.
  • 2-7 - Very good
  • 4-7  Average - controls action 50% of the time.
  • 2-6 - Mediocre, a serviceable 4th starter.
  • 2-5 - Vulnerable pitcher.
  • 2-4 - Poor pitcher, usually just used once team is losing badly to eat up innings and save other pitchers for next game.


Perhaps the best line-up in the league. Still an elite ace in Verlander (2-8) but Cole (2-9) left for Yankees. Pen is not as deep as the Yankees, but the duo of 2-9 pitchers in Osuna and Pressly makes them very tough to beat if they lead going into the 8th inning.



Ryu comes from the Dodgers to give the Blue Jays an ace, but projects as a strong but not dominant PB 2-7 moving from a pitchers park to hitters park. Pitching overall is thin, unless they can get to the dominant Giles (2-9). However, they can pile up runs with young power and speed.





Baseball Cards for all 30 MLB Teams and Free Simulation Game Starting with Yankees-Dodgers

Our second most popular post ever is how to play Statis-Pro baseball. All you need is five dice (two 8-sided of different colors, a 20-sided, and two 6-sided), these free instructions , and then player cards. To get you started, you can bring out images of each teams cards starting with these Yankees and Dodgers cards and how to play the game, and then players for all 30 teams on this google sheet or the following links:

  • Click here for player cards for the Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves and Brewers.
  • Click here for player cards for the Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants and Indians.
  • Click here for player cards for the Mariners, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Orioles, Padres, Phillies and Pirates.
  • Click here for player cards for the Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Rockies and Royals.
  • Click here for player cards for the Tigers, Twins and White Sox.

We provide these cards for free, 1) so you can try out the game, and 2) so that if a new player joins the roster you can find a projected card. The game is more accurate, fun and easy to play if you proceed to purchase:

1. The basic cards, which add features such as left-handed pitching vs. right-handed pitching etc. The only weakness in this cards is the Clutch Defense ratings, so we suggest you use our cards in this blog to replace the ratings on those cards.

2. The advanced cards lead to an incredibly accurate game. If you purchase them, the only suggested use for the player sheets below is for new players who did not have a 2019 card, or had fringe card with just a few at bats.
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We feature the two most popular - and two of the favorites for this season - on top with the Yankees and Dodgers rosters. The game flow is simple - the two 6-sided dice give you a roll of 2-12 first used to see if the pitcher controls the action on his card (in Gerrit Cole's case below, he controls on rolls of 2-9 while a roll of 10, 11 or 12 ends up on the opposing Dodgers hitting card).


·         In our Statis-Pro season, due to season injury we will not use the card for NEW YORK YANKEES Luis Severino, P            

    
Notes on Yankees cards: Powerful line-up, combined with a rare 2-9 starter in Gerrit Cole over from Yankees, and others above average except for No. 4 starter Happ average (4-7). What sets them apart in the best bullpen in baseball with elite closer in Chapman (2-9), and 2-8s in lefty Britton, Kahnle, long reliever Green.

You then look at the roll of 11-88 on the two 8-sided die and read across the column for the result. For example, a roll on Aaron Judge's row below yields a single on a 11-13, double on 14-21, triple on 22-32, strike out on 33-63, walk on 64-87 or hit by pitch on 88. However, if Clayton Kershaw were pitching against him and kept it on his card, those same rolls would result in a single on 11-21, balk on 22, strikeout on 23-42, walk on 43-47, passed ball on 48, wild pitch on 51, or out on 52-88. The 20-sided die is used mainly to determine where the ball is hit on an out based on an out chart (e.g. double play grounder, deep fly, etc.).

We added ranges in red for an optional ballpark factors which can give extra homers to a batter in a hitter's park if Colorado is at home, or save a pitcher by turning a would be home run into a deep fly out if San Francisco is at home. For our results so far, you can also click on the AL West, AL EastAL CentralNL EastNL Central, though our official NL season is all captured here.  but this blog is mainly provided to give you the option of playing your own games.


Insanely good line-up with Mookie Betts added. Starting rotation also very strong with two 2-8 starting pitchers (Kershaw and Buehler) and two very good 2-7 starters. Relievers should be much stronger this year with projected 2-8 for Kolarek, Kelly and Treinen over from A's.and then Jansen an elite 2-9.

If you have a new player on a team (or when a pitcher comes up to hit) you can use the chart below for a temporary card. Just use the projected OPS for the batter (or for pitchers at bat, career OPS if he has at least 50 at bats) and for a pitcher use his projected ERA. Assume most NL pitchers have an OPS of .200, and AL pitchers or NL relief pitchers have an OPS of .150 and use this chart.



Action all starts with the pitcher's PB to determine if the action is on the pitcher's card or hitter's card.


  • 2-9: Pitcher controls action 83% of the time (rolls of 2-9), truly elite, top 5% of all pitchers and normally just an ace reliever.
  • 2-8 -Excellent, top ace starting pitcher as starters rarely are 2-9s.
  • 2-7 - Very good
  • 4-7  Average - controls action 50% of the time.
  • 2-6 - Mediocre, a serviceable 4th starter.
  • 2-5 - Vulnerable pitcher.
  • 2-4 - Poor pitcher, usually just used once team is losing badly to eat up innings and save other pitchers for next game.

On Card: Key to Batters Card
  • OBR: On Base Running (A to E raring on ability to take extra bases on hits, beat out double play grounders, etc.
  • SP: Speed AA to E - Ability to steal bases.
  • H&R: Hit and Run - rarely used any more and most players are a "0", but a few players are good "1" or great "2" at it.
  • 1Bf-1B9: Single, if player is a OBR A or B then an "11" is an infield single. Otherwise, a hit that ends in a 1-3 (11, 12,13, 21) is a single to left, 4-6 is to centerfield and 7-8 is to right field.
  • 2B7-2B9: Double, same as above on which field.
  • 3B8: Triple, always to centerfield.
  • HR: Home Run.
  • Deep: If you use this range, a Deep drive means you get a new roll of 11-88 to determine if it is a home run or deep fly out with all runners advancing, depending on which ballpark the game is played.
  • K: Strikeout.
  • W: Walk, or bases on balls.
  • HPB: Hit by Pitched Ball.
  • Out: Out, check 20-sided die for type of out.
  • OPS, PA: A players projected OPS (On-base percentage plus slugging) to give you an idea of who the best players on the team are, and the projected Plate Appearances so you know which players played the most.
  • Clutch Def: Clutch Defensive rating, which is used only with men on base to determine if a defender can turn a double play, is unable to get to a ball allowing a hit, etc.
  • Bats: We did not enter whether or not a player hits left handed, right handed or switch hit, so if you play off of these charts rather than buy cards then don't use any advantage or disadvantate fo righty vs. righty, etc.


On Card: Key to Pitchers Card
  • PB: Pitcher or Batter- the ranged determines if the pitcher keeps the action on his card or allows it on the batters card on the 11-88 roll.
  • SR: The pitcher's stamina if he starts a game - every time he allows a player to reach first base (except by error), allows and earned run, or finishes an inning, this number drops by 1 until he is out of stamina and leaves the game for a reliever.
  • RR: The pitcher's stamina if he comes into the game as a reliever.
  • 1Bf-1B9: Same as above for batters, a single.
  • BK: If anyone is on base, the pitcher commits a balk.
  • Deep (change opp. batter): If you decide to use Deep ranges for the batters, then the pitcher may also turn one or two home runs or strikeouts on the batter's card into additional "deep" ratings.
  • K: Strikeout, same as batter above.
  • W: Walk, same as batter above.
  • PB/WP: The first number is a passed ball, and the second number in the range is a wild pitch.
  • Out: Out, same as batter above.
  • ERA, St, Rel: We provide the pitcher's projected ERA, as well as how many starts vs. relief appearances he was projecte to make.
  • Clutch Def: Clutch defense rating, same as above. This is the one stat we recommend using if you buy the basic cards, which are accurate except for their clutch defense ratings.
  • Throws/Errors: If you purchase the cards you will have an Error rating for each player. If you just use these sheets, then if the player is a CD5 give him an E1, TA or T5, if CD4 then E2, TA, T4, if CD3 then E3, TB or T3, if CD2 then E4, TC or T3, if CD1 then E5, TC, T2.

We provide score sheets for all 30 teams with our suggested line-ups. The following are the sheets  for the 2-game series we played in our league between the Yankees and Astros.






Saturday, May 23, 2020

Ballpark Adjustments for Statis-Pro: DEEP Drives

The following chart can be used with basic Statis-Pro cards to adjust for the chances of scoring in each ballpark. To keep the adjustment very basic, simply take the highest two hit numbers for the batter at the plate (usually home runs unless the batter has one or fewer homers on his card) and the next two numbers (usually strikeouts) and change the result of those Random Numbers to a DEEP drive.

When a DEEP drive is the result, flip an extra Random Number and the result will always either be a Home Run, or a Deep Drive with all runners advancing one base. If the Mets are at home, the DEEP drive will always be caught because it is very hard to score in Citi Field. If the Rockies or Rangers are at home, the ball will always sail out of the ballpark for a home run because Globe Life Park and Coors Field yields many runs.



Advanced Ball Park Option - Adjust Players Cards As Well

To be truly accurate with a ballpark adjustment, you also want to adjust the Statis-Pro cards. A Colorado pitcher card actually should be better than the calculation because the pitcher would have had better stats pitching half his games in another park, and a San Francisco batter card actually should be better because the batter would have had better stats elsewhere.

The fourth column above indicates which numbers should be changed to DEEP based on what team is on the players card (if a combined card, just treat like the Angels, a neutral card.


As an example, let's say we had the following numbers on a batter's card:

HR: 31-34
K: 35-36
W: 37
HPB: 38
Out: 41-88

If you used just the basic adjustment above then a 33-36 would become a DEEP drive, which might or might not go out of the park depending on where the game was being played. This means two of his home runs (33 and 34) might turn into deep fly outs, and two of his outs (35 and 36) might be home runs.

However, the advanced deep range adjusts to what the card would reflect if the player played in a neutral park like Angel Stadium.

You need to add BOTH the pitcher and batter numbers in the 4th column.

So if a Rockies batter was against a Nationals pitcher, both would say to change 2 home run numbers for his DEEP range, so adding them both together you would have 4 home run numbers converted to deep drives - in other words 31-34 would change from a Home Run to DEEP but none of the strike out numbers (35 or 36) would change to DEEP.

At the other extreme if an A's pitcher were facing a Giants' batter (or vice versa) both cards would entail using 2 strikeout numbers for the DEEP range, so adding them both together it would be 4 total strikeout numbers meaning 35-38 would change from strikeouts to DEEP drives.

If a player has fewer than 4 home run numbers, still use the last 4 numbers but if you are changing a TRIPLE (3b8) to DEEP then if a Home Run results it is instead a triple, and likewise if a DOUBLE (2B9) is being changed to DEEP then if a Home Run results change it to a base clearing double.

The chart refers to the next four numbers after the Home Runs as "Strikeout" numbers on the chart, however, if a player has very few strikeouts then those numbers could be walks, hit by pitch or outs.

When a player has "strikeouts" changed to DEEP, then replace the first few OUTS on the card with the numbers that are replaced in a given game by DEEP. For example, on the sample card ranges above, if 35-38 were all changed to DEEP, then 41-42 would become a strikeout, 43 a walk and 44 a hit by pitch.

Friday, May 22, 2020

Dodgers, Nats Favored to Meet in Statis-pro NLCS

While the AL Statis-pro season includes a few interleague games and counts 5-run wins as 3-game sweeps, the NL season uses true records of games played and only counts games played against other NL teams. While standings will be updated shortly for May games, the following are the April standings and previews:

NL East                               NL West
Washington       4-0         Los Angeles        3-1        
Atlanta                2-2         Arizona               2-2        
Chicago               2-2        St. Louis              2-2
New York           1-3          Milwaukee         2-2
Philadelphia      1-3          Cincinnati           1-3

NL teams playing only Interleague games:
Pittsburgh, Miami, San Diego, San Francisco and Colorado.

Preview:
NL “East”
Even with losing Anthony Rendon, hethe is replaced by Thames from the Brewers making them look tough to beat.
Another quality rotation and a pretty good line-up put them in each game.

But once again their bullpen depth could cause issues though former Astro Will Harris adds one arm.

The Braves are their main challenger. They have a better bullpen, but it might not offset a weaker rotation, including Teheran leaving for the AL.

The Phillies, Mets and Cubs all have weaker starting pitching and only average offenses.

NL “West”

The Dodgers are clearly the favorites for the division and the pennant. 

Good rotation (adding David Price) deep line-up (adding Mookie Betts) good bullpen.  But when your closer is a 2-7, nothing feels safe.

The Reds looks surprisingly strong on paper. But they have to think Wildcard spot right away. Japanese centerfielder and leadoff batter Shogo Akiyama has the best new player card in the NL based on his zips projected stats.




The Diamondbacks and Cardinals will struggle to score runs, but good pitching makes them competitive.

The Brewers could be a factor, but they have the weakest bullpen in the league and don’t have deep starting pitching.

Overall, the Dodgers & Nationals look good followed by a very competitive Wildcard race.
Will there be any surprises?  Roster moves that make a difference?

The rules:

Ten teams will play for a spot in the Statis-Pro World Series.

They will be divided into a pair of five team divisions.

The division winners will receive a bye.

The next four best records will meet in an opening round best-of-5 Wildcard Round.

The Division series and LCS will be best-of-7.

In general a pitcher at bat gets a hit only on an 11-14 (see the 2nd column below). 
However, if a pitcher has at least 50 at bats hit hitting card is better if his OPS is closer to .250 than .200 (third column) or as in Jon Lester's case his .317 career ops is closest to .300 on the chart, meaning a 15 or 16 is a double, and continue to move down one row for every .050 better.












Monday, May 18, 2020

Adjusting Astros' Slightly in Light of Sign-Stealing on Zips Projections

Because I use Zips projections to adjust my game cards if a player is expected to be much better or much worse during the current season, I took a look at if any additional adjustments should be made to Houston Astros cards in light of the sign stealing scandal.

To state up front, I have been a rabid Astros fan who has worn my "Dickie Thon" jersey everyone from Wrigley Field in the 1980s to Yankee Stadium for Game 5 of the 2019 playoffs. However, I tried to make this an unbias reading based on OPS (not the perfect stat, but a good stat that even casual fans understand quickly as slugging average plus on base percentage).

The quick history recap; pitchers work hard to trick batters starting with throwing fast pitches inside and softer pitches outside to throw off their time. Opposing baseball players have always tried to steal the sign from the catcher to tip off their teammate at bat on which pitch is being thrown (fast ball vs. off speed pitch) and location. Using electronic equipment started at least as early as 1951 when the famous "shot heard round the world" was partly made possible by the sign being stolen from a camera in the outfield. This practice was not actually banned until a decade later by MLB.

To layout the case for Astros haters; 1) MLB caught on in 2017 that they Astros were using cameras of some kind to steal signals and sent out a memo to all teams to make it clear electronic sign stealing was NOT allowed. 2) MLB concluded, and the Astros later admitted they were stealing signs from cameras and using methods such as banging on a trash can to signal batters. 3) Critics charge and the Astros deny that buzzer's were used to signal players, in particular charging that Jose Altuve's series clinching homer of a high and outside Chapman fastball was tipped off and noting Altuve told teammates not to tear off his shirt which they conclude was meant to prevent the buzzer from being discovered. 4) The Astros contend halfway through 2018 the players decided to stop the practice because it becoming a distraction, though they seemed to continue to be good at picking up on pitches in at least one playoff case in which a Tampa pitchers was lowering his glove for on pitch and leaving it high for another - though this kind of tipping is not considered against the the rules. In the World Series game against Washington, Strasburg's coaches realized he was tipping the pitch by the way he held has hand in the first inning when the Astros were teeing off on his pitches, and found that by shaking his glove every pitch they could no longer steal the pitch and he was almost unhittable the rest of the way.

Let's look at what the numbers say:

2017 OPS2018 OPS2019 OPS3-year average
Astros batting home OPS0.8120.7300.8780.807
Astros batting road OPS0.8340.7770.8190.810
Home better hitting at home than road-0.022-0.0470.059-0.003
Opposing batting OPS playing in Houston0.6880.6470.6830.673
Opposing batting OPS in Astros away games0.7530.6320.6780.688
Opposing hitting better at home than road-0.0650.0150.005-0.015
Estimated extra advantage for Astros hitters0.043-0.0620.0540.012

In 2017, when the Astros admit to cheating, their OPS was actually 0.022 points lower at home (where cameras could steal signs) then on the road (where cameras were presumably not available). At first glance, another Astros fan might arguing the cheating was not working during the season. However, Minute Made Park was playing as a pitchers park overall, and opposing batters actually hit 0.065 points worse in Minute Made then when the Astros came to their park. Therefore, my estimate it that the electronic sign stealing did help the Astros improve their OPS by about 0.043. In my Statis-Pro game that is about 1 home run number, so if I'd discover this then I would suggest taking the top home run number from every 2017 Astros card and change it to a strikeout to undo the advantage they gained.

However, taking 2018 and 2019 combined the Astros did not appear to have any advantage at home verses on the road, which would seem to back the claim that those two years stats are honest. The overall average is that their home batting was slightly better than road batting, but actually visiting teams improved just slightly more in Houston (0.004 between the two years, with road teams having a 0.062 better OPS advantage in Houston in 2018 and Houston having a 0.054 better OPS in 2019.

A skeptic could conclude they found new ways to cheat in 2019 since that year was better even than 2018, but for my purposes of whether or not the zips projections are off - the Houston home big "disadvantage" in 2018 makes the overall OPS over the past three years that go into Zips ratings only show a very slight advantage for Houston.

For my game, I decided to have one extra number on all Houston batters turn into a DEEP drive that might or might not go out rather than an certain home run.

Therefore, when a 2019 Houston pitcher card is on the mound in a game I will just chance the top home run number and first strikeout number on the opposing batters card and change it to a DEEP drive as I do with all others.

However, if a 2019 Houston batters card is in play, I will change the top TWO Home Run numbers and only the first strike out number and change them to DEEP drives. On average, that would make the OPS of Astros batters end up about 0.027 points lower than their normal card.

Friday, May 15, 2020

NL West - Preview or What-if Season to Date

This blog includes summaries of interleague games which count in our AL Statis-pro season but do not count in the official NL Statis-pro seasons.


With Major League Baseball hoping that play an 82-game schedule, this blog covers the results of our NL West games using Statis-pro cards for current rosters. These cards and rosters simulate the projected hitting, pitching and fielding for each player on a 2020 team (including rookies and new stars from Japan and Cuba). 

These might be previews of an upcoming 82-game season or if MLB is unable to play it might become a "what-if" blog like our 2020 March Madness. You can also click on the AL West, AL EastAL CentralNL EastNL Central, though our official NL season is all captured here. We use ballpark factors.

Division Statis-Pro Results to Date

  1. Arizona 8-4 - Do not actually look as strong as the Dodgers, but another strong team.
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers 7-5 -with Betts and Price they look like the dominant team in the NL, but in our game they lost an 8-0 lead at Houston that in real life would have been a heartbreak.
  3. San Diego 6-6
  4. Colorado 4-8
  5. San Francisco 4-8
Click for google doc grid of all games.



NL West vs. AL West Results

Arizona won 12-1 at Seattle won 10-3





Colorado at Texas swept 8-5 (up 8-1 after 8 inn) and won 7-6.



San Diego won 6-4 at LA Angels won 4-1. The first time in history I've had one team lose 5 players to ejection or injury in the first two innings. The starting pitcher Heaney was already getting hammered in the first inning when a Z-play (unusual play) game up and an RBI roller down the 1st base line resulted in him, his catcher and the 1st baseman getting ejected. After Tommy Pham hit his second homer of the game for the Padres in the 2nd inning, Trout collided with his right fielder chasing a double (luckily in my game injuries just last one game because I use projected stats and the injury rules are meant to take players with great cards but only a few games played out for long stretches). There was even a rain delay later, which makes both pitchers less effective when play resumes. Angels stayed in the game despite having noone left on the bench, so coming back to win the second game and get a split was a major victory.





San Fran at Oakland won 4-1 in 10, 6-3 in 11. Note we use international rules for extra innings. In the 10th each team can go to any place in the line-up and put the first two runners on base on "intentional" walks, and then at the beginning of the 11th and beyond the next two batters who would have hit are instead given a base on balls. Semien therefore saved the A's in the first game with a 2-out double in the 9th to force an extra inning, then he was back up to start the 10th and blasted a 3-run homer due to the two preceeding runners already being on base.  Then they won in 11 innings - I only let most relievers (unless they are a long reliever) pitch one inning unless the game goes to extra innings - and the A's closer Henricks was perfect for three innings for that win.




LA Dodgers at Houston won 8-1, 10-9 (5 games to 1 Astros). This would definitely be the most unpopular result, and it looked like the Dodgers would trade blowouts with Houston after building an 8-0 lead in game two. However, Yordan Alvarez hit two doubles and then a walk-off homer to give Houston the incredible rally for a win.






  • LA Dodgers 6, Seattle 1 (Sweep)
  • LA Dodgers 5, Seattle 0 (2nd Sweep, Dodgers credited with winning series 6 games to 0, Seattle drops to 8-10 for the season). Adding Price to that rotation and Betts to the top of that line-up - they may get that World Series title Dodgers fans feel they were cheated out of in both 2017 and 2018.





  • Colorado 3, LA Angels 1. Rockies ace (Gray) and closer (Oberg) defied altitude again in pitchers' duel.
  • LA Angels 10, Colorado 7. Angels used closer Robles early to get out of jam already down 5-0, then scored 7 runs in next frame started by rare back to back hit and run 2 plays by Simmons and Fletcher resulting in single then triple and setting up Trout's second Homer in 2 games.



  • Arizona 7, Texas 3. Bumgarner 7.2 up, 1 we, but k marte error in 8th allowed 2 runs to prevent sweep.
  • Arizona 9, Texas 0 (sweep). Weaver hit by pitch in bottom of 6th, gave up only single in top of 7th for 1-hit complete game shutout.


  • San Diego 6, Oakland 5 (12 innings).
  • Oakland 11, San Diego 3 (not sweep because not ahead by 5 at end of 8th (7-3).



  • Houston 5, San Fran 1
  • Houston 5, San Fran 2