Saturday, June 15, 2024

VABG Strategy Tips and Adjustments After Classic Simulated Texas Tech 1993-Oklahoma 2002 Game

One of the ultimate even Value Add Basketball Game debut match-ups gave an example of why we need to play every team once to catch any tweaks to the cards. As Texas Tech 1993 and Oklahoma 2002 battled in a classic simulated overtime showdown, a couple of tweaks became evident that we have now made to the Texas Tech cards.

First, because of their strong bench and balance we gave their reserves three more possessions than the standard team from before minutes played are available, letting the bench play possessions 44-35, then the starters 34-1. A little "oops" there, as the math does work on that except for of course Sheryl Swoopes, the No. 1 pick in the first WNBA draft who we rank as the 18th greatest college player ever, and looked pretty good in this one-on-one against Michael Jordan, should not sit on the bench for the first 10 possessions. We changed her suggested possessions played to the whole game, 44-1, and had Melinda White and Kim Pruitt both get just five possessions to split time at the 2-Shooting Guard possession.

Second, we had put White and Pruitt at 4-Power Forward and 5-Center because they were taller reserves, but their low rebounding range was allowing Oklahoma to dominate the boards. Centers have the most chances at rebounds so you want the best rebounder there, so Janice Farris moved to back-up center, and forwards get the second most chances so we moved Nikki Heath to 4-PF.  You like to put the best steal ranges in the two guard position, so hated to move Heath from guard since she also gets a lot of steals, but it was more important to stop the Oklahoma board domination early. 

That still left the 1-point guard Stephanie Scott at the guard position in order to have a chance at steals. Any time a guard steals the ball the team has a better chance to score because all guard steals can be used to start a fast break - meaning the 20-sided die roll is reduced by 1 to give a 5% better chance at a 3-pointer, 2-pointer or foul drawn on the break. When a forward steals the ball they can only start a fast break on an odd number (11, 13, 15 or 31). A center can never start a fast break with a steal.

Even with these in game adjustments, Oklahoma did an unbelievable job of keeping the ball out of Sheryl Swoopes hands - quite a feat since she gets the ball 37.5% of die rolls as a 3, 7 or 8 on the 8-sided die. They held her to just 12 points, less than half of her average, but her 10 rebounds and 5 steals and then passes to teammates set up many crucial baskets down the stretch to hold off a big run by Oklahoma's future WNBA backcourt of Stacey Dales and Laneishea Caufield, who combined for 33 points. Here is the adjusted Texas Tech line-up that is now in the game.



Thrilling Final Minutes and OT

With four possessions (2:07 to play), Texas Tech led 66-61 but Stacey Dales scored and drew a foul, completing the traditional 3-point play to gut it to 66-64.

Michi Atkins had drawn a 5th foul on Caton Hill, but back-up Dionnah Jackson-Durrett came through by drawing a foul and hit one of two to make it 69-69. However, she missed the second shot and Swoopes grabbed the rebound and scored at the other end to make it 71-69 Texas Tech. However, Stacey Dales beat the buzzer with a game-tying shot to force overtime 71-71.

While Jackson-Durrett was playing tired (more possessions than Stamina on her card) the final few minutes of regulation so all rolls of the 20-sided die and 11-66 dice rolls in which she had the ball or was guarding were adjusted 1 against her whenever it helped Texas Tech. Michi Atkins for Texas Tech was also a freshman who would become a starz averaging 21 points and 12 rebounds a game once she was a senior.

However, when overtime starts, all players on both teams are considered tired so noone has the disadvantage. No longer with a disadvantage, Dionnah Jackson-Durrett came up with a big basket and drew a 4th foul on Swoopes to give Oklahoma 76-73 lead and mean one more foul on Swoopes would be a disaster for Texas Tech. Jackson-Durrett was just a freshman for this season, and as indicated in the box score averaged 7.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.9 assists that season. However, the next two seasons she was 2nd team all-Big 12 and her senior year averaged 15 points, 9 rebounds and 6 assists a game to go 1st team all-Big 12 and go as a 1st round pick in the WNBA draft.

However, Swoopes took over from there with three rebounds and two steals in the final minutes of overtime to pull Texas Tech back to an 80-79 win.

Then in the most unlikely play of the game, Oklahoma's best free throw shooter Laneishea Caufield drew a foul and went to the line only needing to hit two free throws - meaning roll a 1-17 (85% free throw shooter) on the 20-sided die twice to take the lead - but missed both with a roll of 18 and then 19 and the Sooners never scored again and had to foul twice to stop the clock as Texas Tech won 85-79.

We count overtime games as a 1-point margin no matter the final score. Going into these debut games, both teams were in a 4-way tie for 47th. Texas Tech moves up to a 2-way tie in 45th place with Kentucky (who will play LSU) while Oklahoma drops slightly to a 2-way tie with Virginia Tech for 50th.

The Actual Seasons

This was the one game we picked as EVEN with no favorite. Texas Tech 1993 split with Texas during the season as both dominated the Southwestern Conference to finish as co-champions at 13-1 - but neither was in the top 10 until Texas Tech broke it late in the season, then beat Texas for the conference tournament title and then made a bit of a surprise run to the national title.

By 2002, they were both in the Big 12 (after the SWC and Big 8 merged) and Oklahoma also split with Texas during the season, but looked like more of the national champion threat as a top 5 team every week of the season, including beating Baylor for the Big 12 tournament title and then beating that Texas Tech team as well as 1-seed Duke in the Final 4 before falling to UConn for the second time in the season to finish as runner-up. 

Pos            Texas Tech 1993             Pts  3pt 2pt FT AtReStBkFlHt, Pts, Reb, AstPt
1-PGKrista Gerlich17421211135'10, 12.9, 4.9, 5.3 17
2-SGNoel Johnson7120041025'7, 8.8, 3.8, 3.6 7
3-SFSheryl Swoopes120522105146'0, 28.1, 9.2, 4.1 12
4-PFMichi Atkins15063751026'1, 9.2, 5.1, 0.4 15
5-CCynthia Clinger10050090316'2, 10.7, 4.4, 0.6 10
PosTTU BenchPts3pt2ptFTAtReStBkFlHt, Pts, Reb, AstPt
1-PGStephanie Scott8210020015'9, 4.5, 3.0, 3.9 8
2-SGNikki Heath6014610025'9, 2.5, 2.8, 0.7 6
3-SFJanice Farris6030040025'11, 6.0, 3.2, 1.2 6
4-PFKim Pruitt2010020026'1, 2.0, 0.7, 0.2 2
5-CMelinda White2010010015'11, 2.3, 1.4, 0.1 2
 17 Turnovers857271017398520 85
             
PosOklahoma 2002Pts3pt2ptFTAtReStBkFlHt, Pts, Reb, AstPt
1-PGStacey Dales19172232026'0, 17.0, 5.0, 4.9 19
2-SGLaneishea Caufield14070222025'9, 17.4, 5.0, 2.6 14
3-SFRosalind Ross15144651215'9, 11.6, 5.3, 2.2 15
4-PFCaton Hill2010082356'1, 12.6, 6.9, 2.1 2
5-CJamie Talbert10050051216'2, 7.8, 5.0, 1.0 10
PosOU BenchPts3pt2ptFTAtReStBkFlHt, Pts, Reb, AstPt
1-PGKate Scott2010010015'10, 1.5, 0.5, 0.6 2
2-SGDionnah Jackson-Durrett8032520035'9, 7.3, 4.7, 2.9 8
3-SFLauren Shoush4020010015'11, 1.3, 1.3, 0.7 4
4-PFStephanie Simon3011210016'0, 1.2, 1.2, 0.2 3
5-CLindsey Casey2010030016'1, 1.6, 0.6, 0.0 2
 18 Turnovers79232917318718 79


All games are tracked on this google sheet with this game and the other eight yet to play at the top. Each team's starting rating appears first, as a measure of how many points better or worse their cards appear to be than the average great team in the game. The next column shows how much they were favored or underdog in that game. When we add results such as this game, a game score is calculated based on the margin (overtime margin is always reduced to 1 point), then the margin of victory or defeat, then and extra +3 or -3 based on if the team won or lost. Finally, if one team is at home (thus can flip rolls from 36 to 66 or vice versa) then they get a -4 and the road team gets a +4, but we are playing the games below as neutral court. Finally the Game Score is adjusted for the opponents team rating. These ratings are very similar to those at www.kenpom, except he does not adjust for who wins or loses a game.



Clark to Boston for Fever Win; We Retro Great 1st WNBA Player Swoopes vs. Oklahoma

 The Dallas Mavericks kept the NBA season alive by avoiding a sweep by the Boston Celtics, and the Indiana Fever put together only their fourth win of the season. You can click this YouTube game highlights, including this last moment in which they trailed Atlanta. Caitlin Clark had just driving toward the hoop and then given one of her patented passes to the star of the game Aliyah Boston, who was in the process of putting in the game-winning shot.

While Clark is not one of top few players in the league yet as a rookie, when she plays and average of 15,591 fans turn out, more than twice as many as turn out for other WNBA games, according to sportsnaut. In her first year overall WNBA TV viewership has almost tripled. We rank her the 8th greatest college player of all time - and included our ranking of the top 40 players of all time in our previous blog.previous blog.

Next up in our game will be the 18th greatest player of all time on our list, Sheryl Swoopes, who will debut in our Value Add Basketball Game with her Texas Tech 1993 team in what would have been a SWC or Big 12 matchup over the years against Oklahoma 2002. While Swoopes averaged 28 points a game (see box score for all stats of players below photo) the game rates as dead even with the Sooners great backcourt of future WNBA players Laneishea Caufield and Stacey Dales, who combined to average 34 points a game this senior season.

This video shows Swoops 47 point performance in one game. pparently some of the google docs to women's teams were requiring permission, and we apologize and have fixed that so anyone should be able to open and print the teams of your choice in view only or by downloading the doc to word. We will also provide a drop box option once we've double checked player cards on these last 10 teams to debut. We track ratings and all scores on this google sheet.google sheet.

You can click this YouTube video of the Fever win:


The game was such a classic, that we decided to make it a separate blog rather than just add it below.

The following is the starting box score, with the stats each player gets by position before the first roll of the dice. This is reflected on the scoresheet with the game. All 10 players get one basket made, a rebound and a foul to start the game at 20-20. The starting guards start with 1 steal, and each team starts with 3 other turnovers for 5 turnovers total. Then the starting forwards and center get an extra rebound to start with 2. The center also starts with 1 blocked shot.

Pos            Texas Tech 2003              Pts 3pt 2pt FT Att Reb Stl  Blk Fl  Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PGKrista Gerlich2010011015'10, 12.9, 4.9, 5.3
2-SGNoel Johnson2010011015'7, 8.8, 3.8, 3.6
3-SFSheryl Swoopes2010020016'0, 28.1, 9.2, 4.1
4-PFMichi Atkins2010020016'1, 9.2, 5.1, 0.4
5-CCynthia Clinger2010020116'2, 10.7, 4.4, 0.6
PosTTU BenchPts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlHt, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PGStephanie Scott2010010015'9, 4.5, 3.0, 3.9
2-SGNikki Heath2010010015'9, 2.5, 2.8, 0.7
3-SFJanice Farris2010010015'11, 6.0, 3.2, 1.2
4-PFKim Pruitt2010010016'1, 2.0, 0.7, 0.2
5-CMelinda White2010010015'11, 2.3, 1.4, 0.1
 3 Turnovers2001000132110 
            
PosOklahoma 2002Pts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlHt, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PGStacey Dales2010011016'0, 17.0, 5.0, 4.9
2-SGLaneishea Caufield2010011015'9, 17.4, 5.0, 2.6
3-SFRosalind Ross2010020015'9, 11.6, 5.3, 2.2
4-PFCaton Hill2010020016'1, 12.6, 6.9, 2.1
5-CJamie Talbert2010020116'2, 7.8, 5.0, 1.0
PosOU BenchPts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlHt, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PGKate Scott2010010015'10, 1.5, 0.5, 0.6
2-SGDionnah Jackson-Durrett2010010015'9, 7.3, 4.7, 2.9
3-SFLauren Shoush2010010015'11, 1.3, 1.3, 0.7
4-PFStephanie Simon2010010016'0, 1.2, 1.2, 0.2
5-CLindsey Casey2010010016'1, 1.6, 0.6, 0.0
 3 Turnovers2001000132110

Friday, June 14, 2024

ODU 1997 that fell to All-Time Greatest Team (Tennessee late 90s) Moves Up to 12th All-time with VABG Win Over UNC 2007

 A couple of 20th century teams were upset recently in their Value Add Basketball GameValue Add Basketball Game debuts against all-time great teams, but the Old Dominion 1997 team pulled away from UNC 2007 by a 85-69 to move up to No. 12 in our all-time rankings. 

Like Caitlin Clark's breakthrough 2024 title game against South Carolina, the 1997 title game 1997 title game stunned the world by outdrawing the men's title (which happened to be the last Pac-12 men's title (Arizona). 

This was the true changing of the guard in a great game between the last of the mid-major dynasty teams (Louisiana Tech, ODU, Long Beach State) before Tennessee and then other big programs took over. This game came down to the final few minutes before the Vols defeated ODU for their 2nd of three straight titles. We rank the real Tennessee team from the next year - 1998 - as the greatest team in history right now and do not use teams with overlapping players and thus do not have the actual 1996 and 1997 team in the game.

This ODU team that almost beat them ranks just 11 spots further back at #12 all-time in the game, though this does not count the overlapping teams, so this ODU team would actually rank 26th if you could these there Tennessee teams, then the UConn 2000, 2002,  2003 and 2004 etc. on the rankings below.


    
RnkTeam (other top 50 team yrs)WLScoreAllowBest Players (rank if top 40 all-time)
1Tennessee 1998 (1996, 1997)4076.364.0Tamika CatchingsChamique Holdsclaw., No. 1, 21 best
2Connecticut 2002 (2000, 2003, 2004)1075.046.0Sue BirdDiana Taurasi, 3, 7 best
3Tennessee 2007 (2008)1089.070.0Candace Parker, 10 best
4Texas 19861076.066.0Clarissa Davis, 40 best
5Louisiana Tech 19823176.067.5Pam Kelly., 11 best
6South Carolina 2024 (2023)1084.055.0Kamilla Cardoso
7Connecticut 19951081.057.0Nykesha SalesRebecca Lobo, 31, 37 bests
8Connecticut 2016 (2014, 2015, 2017, 2018)1180.064.5Maya MooreKatie Lou Samuelson, 2, 22 best
9Notre Dame 20183176.372.8Arike Ogunbowales
10Connecticut 2010 (2009, 2011, 2013)2173.373.3Breanna Stewart, 4 best
11USC 1983 (1984)2172.063.3Cheryl Miller, Cynthia Cooper, 9, 25 best
12Old Dominion 19971085.069.0Ticha Penicheiro
13Stanford 20211179.072.5Kiana Williams
14Louisiana Tech 1988 (1990)1080.064.0Teresa Weatherspoon
15LSU 20231089.061.0Angel Reese, 23 best
16Baylor 2012 (2011, 2013)1173.577.0Kalani Brown
17Tennessee 1989 (1987, 1991)0164.068.0Bridgette Gordon
18Iowa 20241084.064.0Caitlin Clark, 8 best
19Auburn 19891066.062.0Carolyn Jones
20Notre Dame 2012 (2014)0170.078.0Kylar Diggins
21Baylor 2019 (2017, 2018, 2020)1174.073.0Brittney Griner, 6 best
22Oregon 2019 (2020)0181.084.0Sabrina Ionescu, 14 best
23Texas A&M 20110169.076.0Danielle Adams
24Vanderbilt 20021076.065.0Chantelle Anderson
25Notre Dame 20011080.076.0Ruth Riley, 32 best
26Mississippi State 20180158.074.0Victoria Vivans
27Virginia 19911076.072.0Dawn Staley, 20 best
28Old Dominion 19850168.074.0Adrienne Goodson
29Maryland 200600  Crystal Langhorne
30Ohio State 19930165.076.0Katie Smith, 27 best
31Marquette 20191068.064.0Chloe Marotta, Natisha Hiedeman
32Indiana 20241078.070.0MacKenzie Holmes
33Old Dominion 19800155.080.0Nancy Lieberman, 12 best
34Michigan St. 200500  Liz Shimek
35LSU 200500  Sylvia FowlesSeimone Augustus, 39, 34 best
36South Carolina 2017 (2019)1169.073.5A'ja Wilson, 5 best
37Duke 20060166.075.0Alison Bales
38UCLA 20181071.063.0Monique Billings
39NC State 202400  Aziaha James
40Rutgers 200500  Cappie Pondexter, 36 best
41Louisville 20090074.068.0Angel McCoughtry, 38 best
42Stanford 201200  Nnemkadi Ogwumike, 24 best
43Washington 20170157.064.0Kelsey Plum, 15 best
44Louisville 20140169.076.0Shoni Schimmel
45Kentucky 201300  DeNesha Stallworth
46Georgia 20130170.089.0Jasmine James
47Oklahoma 20100166.076.0Abi Olajuwon
48Texas Tech 199300  Sheryl Swoopes, 18 best
49Colorado St. 199900  Becky Hammon, 19 best
50Rutgers 19880162.066.0Sue Wicks, 29 best
51Oklahoma 200200  Stacey Dales
52Virginia Tech 20240176.080.0Elizabeth Kitley
53USC 19940163.071.0Lisa LeslieTina Thompson, 26, 33 best
54Texas 20180162.084.0Ariel Atkins
55Minnesota 20040172.076.0Lindsay Whalen, 30 best
56Ohio State 20160168.079.0Kelsey Mitchell
57Long Beach State 19870153.098.0Penny Toler, Cindy Brown, 17, 28 best
58North Carolina 20070169.085.0Ivory Latta, 35 best
59Arizona 20210164.080.0Aari McDonald
60Penn State 20120164.084.0Maggie Lucas
61Purdue 20030161.089.0Shereka Wright
62Delaware 20130146.075.0Elena Delle Donne, 13 best
63Virginia 20180157.081.0Dominique Toussaint
64Auburn 20090155.084.0Keke Carrier, DeWanna Bonner





Ticha Penicheiro scored 16 points as the point guard, and combined with the two bigs and leading scorers in 6'5 Clarisse Machanguana (16 points) and 6'4 Nyree Roberts (20 points) took over to pull away. The scoresheet is pasted below the updated all-time rankings. Only 10 teams have yet to play in the game.


Wednesday, June 12, 2024

Not Having to Face UConn, Louisville ladies top ODU

 ODU won the NCAA tournament in 1985, while Louisville finished 2nd in the Big East, lost the BIG East title game, and lost the NCAA title game.

Note - our apologies, we noticed a couple of the women's team sheets were coming up as requiring an access request. You should be able to access all now.

Of course, all three of those runner up finishes were to the 39-0 UConn team in the midst of dominating women's hoops. If the Cardinals could have beaten anyone else, they may have been right. In our Value Add Basketball game Angel McCoughtry dominated with 22 points, 5 steals, 8 rebounds and 2 blocked shots to advance 74-68 over ODU.

We did catch two mistakes on the two of Louisville's reserves - very minor but we had some missed 2 points shots and missed 3 points shots so corrected that as shown in the photo.





Sunday, June 9, 2024

Indiana 2024 Team that Crushed Caitlin Clark & Tennessee and Gave SC Scare - stuns ND in our Game

The last double digit underdog to play their Value Add Basketball Game Value Add Basketball Game debut won to make the group 14-79, a little better than the 9.3 wins we would expect from double digit underdogs we would expect in 93 such games, but perhaps not that big a surprise for anyone who watched the Indiana Ladies this season.

The two teams that came closest to beating undefeated South Carolina during the 2024 season were Tennessee (one point loss) and this Indiana team (75-79 loss). 

Indiana also had dominant double digit wins against that Tennessee team (71-57) as well as a late season destruction of Caitlin Clark and Iowa (86-69). Given those three results it shouldn't come as a big surprise they were able to upset the 2012 runners up from Notre Dame - which lost to Baylor in the title game that year, 61-80.

Yarden Garzon hit five of six 3-pointers in the real season upset of Tennessee, and she hit a couple of 3-pointers in this one as well and grabbed 8 rebounds with 15 points in the simulated game win over Notre Dame 2012.

Sara Scalia led the simulated game with a game-high 19 points in the win over Notre Dame. In the real season she outscored Caitlin Clark despite taking barely half as many shots - going 7 of 14 while frustrating Clark for an 8 of 26 night for a dominant 86-69 win.

While there have been a few more big upsets in the game than real life, overall the underdog has won exactly how many would be expected over these first 290 games - 80 wins - as shown on the table below.

We only have seven debut games left, and there are no more big underdogs. One of those seven features teams that are exactly even, while the other six have only slight favorites as shown below. The box score of our game is at the bottom.

VABG Double Digit UnderdogsFinal Heavy UnderdogsExpected UpsetsActual Upsetskenpom 10% chance (ave 14.5 pts)
1st 88 double digit underdogs 888.81212-76 record in 1st 88
Oklahoma 2010 vs Tex 1986L 66-76898.912Abi Olajuwon
Marquette 2019 vs. TN 1989W 68-6490913"Natisha Hiedeman
"
Arizona 2021 vs. La Tech 1988L 64-80919.113Aari McDonald
Rutgers 1988 vs Auburn 1989L 62-66929.213Sue Wicks
Indiana 2024 vs. ND 2012 W78-70939.314MacKenzie Holmes
      
VABG Medium (7-9 pt) underdogs Medium UnderdogsExpected UpsetsActual Upsetskenpom 23% chance upset
1st 48 Medium Underdogs 48111111-37 record in 1st 48
      
VABG Slight (1-6 pt) underdogs Slight UnderdogsExpected UpsetsActual Upsetskenpom 40% chance upset
1st 148 slight underdogs (1-6 pts) 14859.25454-94 record in 1st 148 games
Vanderbilt 2002 vs OSU 1993W 76-6514959.655Chantelle Anderson
North Carolina 2007 vs. ODU 1997 15060TBDIvory Latta
Louisville 2009 vs. ODU 1985 15160.4TBDAngel McCoughtry
LSU 2005 vs. Kentucky 2013 15260.8TBDSylvia FowlesSeimone Augustus
Colorado St. 1999 vs. Stan 2012 15361.2TBDBecky Hammon
NC State 2024 vs. MD 2006 15461.6TBDAziaha James
Rutgers 2005 vs MSU 2005 1556255 to 61Cappie Poindexter
      
Total Underdog Record 29079.88078-207 record in 1st 285 games
      
21 even games (no favorite) 2121 kenpom 50% no favorite

Box Score.

 
Indiana 2024                          Pts   3pt  2pt  FTAtt  RebStlBlkFl         Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
Chloe Moore-McNeil6030012025'11, 10.2, 3.6, 5.0
Sara Scalia19091132015'10, 16.3, 3.8, 2.4
Yarden Garzon15233480026'3, 11.7, 4.4, 3.1
Sydney Parrish7112240036'2, 10.8, 6.0, 2.3
MacKenzie Holmes13053441346'3, 19.8, 6.8, 1.4
BenchPts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlHt, Pts, Reb, Ast
Lexus Bargesser10050030025'9, 4.3, 2.7, 2.8
Lenée Beaumont2010010016'1, 3.0, 0.7, 0.6
Julianna LaMendola2010010016'1, 1.8, 1.9, 0.7
Henna Sandvik2010010016'0, 0.9, 0.7, 0.5
Lilly Meister2010010016'3, 3.7, 2.7, 0.3
 78330911275318 
           
Notre Dame 2012Pts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlHt, Pts, Reb, Ast
Skylar Diggins10042211015'9, 16.8, 3.3, 5.7
Brittany Mallory11310043125'10, 5.8, 2.7, 2.3
Natalie Novosel8032243125'11, 15.2, 4.1, 2.0
Kayla McBride6022241025'11, 11.6, 4.6, 1.7
Devereaux Peters10042480316'2, 11.8, 9.3, 2.1
BenchPts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlHt, Pts, Reb, Ast
Kaila Turner7112210015'8, 3.4, 1.2, 0.9
Whitney Holloway2010010015'4, 1.0, 0.9, 0.7
Fraderica Miller2010010015'10, 1.9, 2.5, 0.9
Natalie Achonwa12044430036'3, 7.6, 4.4, 1.4
Markisha Wright2010010016'2, 3.3, 2.1, 0.3
19 Turnovers704221416288515
ccc

Saturday, June 8, 2024

Update All-Time 64 Women's Bracket After La Tech 1988 Bigs Dominate Arizona 2021, Wins Going Away 80-64

Update: Vandy 76, Ohio State 65 in Midwest action. Scroll to bottom for score sheet.

We are recording all results of our Value Add Basketball Game all-time championship between the 64 teams in the game. The following is a paragraph on each region with the games between debut teams and a link to each region's bracket:

In our all-time South Region Championship, Louisiana Tech's 1988 squad dominated the boards 42-27 to pull away from Arizona's 2021 surprise national runner-up 80-64. Three teams rotated in first place from late in the 1988 season through all of the 1989 and 1990 seasons - La Tech, Auburn and Tennessee - but the win moved La Tech ahead of the other two in the game and to 14th all-time in our game. The Vols were stunned and Auburn barely survived in previous games to let La Tech pass them both.

In the West Region, debut games results included Texas (1986) 76, Oklahoma (2010) 66  and UCLA (2018) 71, USC (1994) 63.  Stanford 2012 vs. Colorado State 1999 is the last game of teams who have not played in addition to the other five first round games to be played.

In the East Region,  the closer-than-expected Auburn (1989) 66, Rutgers (1988) 62 game is one of four debut games. The women's NC State 2024 team was a big surprise just like the men and they will take on Maryland 2006. Old Dominion already has the first team in the game, and we add two more teams with their 1985 team plays Louisville 2009 and then their 1997 plays UNC 2007 in addition to four other games between teams who have already played Value Add Basketball Games. 

In the Midwest Region, it was the huge upset Marquette (2019) 68, Tennessee (1989) 64. three debut games remain including a new entry 2024 Indiana vs. Notre Dame 2012, Ohio State 1993 vs Vanderbilt 2002 and the seeding aligned two 2005 teams in Rutgers vs. Michigan State. The two did not actually play that year as Rutgers was still in the Big East and thus not yet in the Big Ten with the Spartans. There will be four other games in that bracket between teams who have played in our game.

Here is the box score form Louisiana Tech.

Pos            Arizona 2021               Pts  3pt2ptFTAtt   RebStlBlkFl    Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PGAari McDonald23370054135'6, 20.6, 5.4, 4.0
2-SGBendu Yeaney9033421415'10, 4.1, 3.1, 1.5
3-SFSam Thomas4020040246'0, 7.3, 3.4, 1.5
4-PFTrinity Baptiste8024461116'0, 8.6, 6.1, 1.0
5-CCate Reese8022250026'2, 10.9, 5.1, 0.6
PosBenchPts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlHt, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PGDerin Erdogan2010010015'6, 1.0, 0.5, 0.4
2-SGShaina Pellington4020010025'8, 5.8, 1.9, 1.0
3-SFHelena Pueyo2010010016'0, 3.7, 3.5, 1.3
4-PFLauren Ware2020010236'5, 3.9, 3.8, 0.3
5-CSemaj Smith2010010016'6, 0.9, 1.2, 0.1
 16 Turnovers643239102761019 
            
PosLa Tech 1988Pts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlHt, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PGTeresa Weatherspoon9033525015'8, 9.1, 4.4, 6.0
2-SGAngela Lawson10042223035'8, 11.2, 3.6, 3.9
3-SFErica Westbrooks140623110116'3, 14.6, 7.2, 1.2
4-PFNora Lewis121412110036'0, 13.6, 9.8, 1.5
5-CVenus Lacy17081180326'4, 14.5, 9.2, 0.5
PosBenchPts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlHt, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PGTatia Brown2010010015'10, 4.2, 0.4, 0.6
2-SGPaulette Stall4020011015'10, 6.0, 2.9, 2.2
3-SFSheila Ethridge6014420015'8, 7.9, 3.5, 0.9
4-PFBeanie Lincoln4020020015'11, 3.0, 2.2, 0.4
5-CJocelyn Watson2010020016'0, 4.3, 2.6, 0.4
 19 Turnovers801321317429415

We still have nine games to play between 0-0 teams.




Vanderbilt upset Ohio State 76-65 - scoresheet at bottom


After this originally posted, the 2002 Vanderbilt team pulled a minor upset, 76-65, over the 1993 Ohio State team. Candy improved from 39th to 25th, while OSU fell from 29th to 45th in our all-time rankings.

OSU actually lost that year by 3 points at Vandy, and then both teams went to the final 4 but both lost in the semifinals. However, in a close call we went with this Vandy team from 9 years later for the game.

Vandy will face the Marquette 2019 team that pulled our biggest upset so far over Tennessee.





Friday, June 7, 2024

4-seed Auburn 1989 survives 10-0 run to hold off 13-seed Rutgers 1988

Pos            Auburn 1989                   Pts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlHt, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PGRuthie Bolton4020062025'8, 7.9, 4.2, 5.7
2-SGPatrena Scruggs19091161025'9, 10.2, 4.6, 1.9
3-SFCarolyn Jones9041250135'8, 14.5, 4.4, 1.7
4-PFLinda Godby6030040116'5, 11.4, 4.8, 0.4
5-CVickie Orr120524112416'3, 15.9, 8.6, 0.4
PosBenchPts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlHt, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PGLynn Stevenson4020010015'8, 2.2, 1.4, 1.7
2-SGChantel Tremitiere2010010015'6, 1.9, 1.7, 1.6
3-SFEvelyn Thompson4020020015'9, 4.8, 2.0, 1.1
4-PFJocelyn McGilberry4020030016'0, 7.6, 6.3, 0.6
5-CKendall Mago2010010016'4, 3.3, 3.5, 0.3
 20 Turnovers6603147405614 
            
PosRutgers 1988Pts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlHt, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PGJanet Malouf6030233015'6, 6.4, 2.6, 5.9
2-SGTelicher Austin2010032025'9, 13.5, 3.9, 3.6
3-SFSue Wicks220102410016'3, 25.6, 12.1, 2.6
4-PFVicky Picott2010040016'0, 11.4, 7.8, 1.3
5-CMichelle Lender18090082036'2, 12.2, 5.2, 1.3
PosBenchPts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlHt, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PGGlorisa Catala2010010015'6, 3.3, 0.9, 1.0
2-SGJill Shildt4020010015'9, 3.7, 2.2, 1.8
3-SFSuzanne Cooper2010010015'9, 2.8, 1.5, 1.0
4-PFLynn Ust2010020015'11, 5.2, 2.8, 1.6
5-CWendy Porter2010010016'1, 2.1, 2.3, 0.4
 11 Turnovers5802826257013

Update: Auburn 1989 survived another scare by a double digit underdogs, after Rutgers went on a 10-0 fueled Sue Wicks of Rutgers 1988. Shot blockers Linda Godby and Vickie Orr held Rutgers back for most of the game to give Auburn a 46-42 lead, until the 10-0 run gave Rutgers a 52-56 lead.  However, Auburn survived 66-62 behind a double double by Vickie Orr (12 points, 11 rebounds) and Patrena Scruggs 19 points).

The closer-than-expected game drops Auburn from 14th to 21st in our all-time rankings, while Rutgers improved slightly from 50th to 47th. All ratings and games are tracked here. We temporarily posted incorrect info for this game because we had flipped the teams and their lay-up ranges for the game (had Rutgers with a 51-62 and Auburn with a 51-55 instead of the reverse). If that was the case then Rutgers would have won 66-62, but when we reran the die rolls with the corrected ranges is actually shifted to a mirror 66-62 Auburn win so they advance.

Here was the preview first.

Our next debut Value Add Basketball Game Value Add Basketball Game all-time match-up is from our Eastern Region bracket with the all-time 4-seed 1989 Auburn team playing a contemporary - the 13-seed Rutgers 1988.

 From the last few weeks of the 1987-88 season through the end of the 1989-90 season, either Tennessee, Louisiana Tech or Auburn was ranked No. 1 every week. Auburn not only beat those two great teams, but made the national championship game all three years.

In my book, making the national title game three years in a row is much more impressive than winning one title, so Auburn ranks as one of the greatest teams in history with the three straight national runners-up banners hanging in their arena even though they did not win any of the three title games.

Rutgers broke the top 10 for a few weeks during that time and goes in as a double digit (11-point) underdog. However, this game follows up a double digit upset by Marquette 2019 over one of those other three great teams from those three years (Tennessee 1989) to make double digit underdogs 13-76, so Rutgers will try to make it two straight big upsets.




Pos            Auburn 1989                   Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PGRuthie Bolton5'8, 7.9, 4.2, 5.7
2-SGPatrena Scruggs5'9, 10.2, 4.6, 1.9
3-SFCarolyn Jones5'8, 14.5, 4.4, 1.7
4-PFLinda Godby6'5, 11.4, 4.8, 0.4
5-CVickie Orr6'3, 15.9, 8.6, 0.4
PosBenchHt, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PGLynn Stevenson5'8, 2.2, 1.4, 1.7
2-SGChantel Tremitiere5'6, 1.9, 1.7, 1.6
3-SFEvelyn Thompson5'9, 4.8, 2.0, 1.1
4-PFJocelyn McGilberry6'0, 7.6, 6.3, 0.6
5-CKendall Mago6'4, 3.3, 3.5, 0.3
   
PosRutgers 1988Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PGJanet Malouf5'6, 6.4, 2.6, 5.9
2-SGTelicher Austin5'9, 13.5, 3.9, 3.6
3-SFSue Wicks6'3, 25.6, 12.1, 2.6
4-PFVicky Picott6'0, 11.4, 7.8, 1.3
5-CMichelle Lender6'2, 12.2, 5.2, 1.3
PosBenchHt, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PGGlorisa Catala5'6, 3.3, 0.9, 1.0
2-SGJill Shildt5'9, 3.7, 2.2, 1.8
3-SFSuzanne Cooper5'9, 2.8, 1.5, 1.0
4-PFLynn Ust5'11, 5.2, 2.8, 1.6
5-CWendy Porter6'1, 2.1, 2.3, 0.4