Sunday, March 27, 2022

Our CBS Sports/247: Value Add Top Trio (Duke) and Top Duo (Nova) Reach Final 4

(This is the email that went out to our sports list. Email johnp@takebackaction.org if you would like to be added to that list). 

The www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings are final for the players on 342 of 358 teams. PudnerSports.com lists the schedule for the last 16 teams in the Basketball Classic, NIT and of course NCAA, as well as listing the top 2% of the 4,258 players in the www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings.

Click on the picture below or on this link for our CBS Sports/247 Story on how the top trio in basketball (yes better than Gonzaga's according to our rankings) led Duke and Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s to the Final 4, while the top duo in the country (including Collin Gillespie, pictured) led Villanova to the Final 4.  They await the winner of the two games on CBS today, with Miami leading Kansas at the half as ACC fans hope they hold on and UNC tops Saint Peter's in the finale after that game to give the ACC three of the Final 4 teams.

Scroll further down for our final National Player of the Year and All-American teams.


The Value Add Basketball National Player of the Year battle was one of our closest ever, with Iowa's Keegan Murray nudging out Kentucky's Oscar Tshiebwe with respective Value Adds of 12.31 to 12.13. That means both team would be expected to be 12 points worse if either of those MVPs had to miss a game - so turning a 6-point win into a 6-point loss.

Our Final 1st Team All-Americans calculate as:

  • 4-PF, Keegan Murray #15, Iowa, 12.31, 6'8", 90% chance at NBA.
  • 5-C, Oscar Tshiebwe #34, Kentucky, 12.13, 6'9", 80% chance at NBA. Top defensive rating in country at -4.47 points erased from opponent (edges out Auburn's Kessler and the Zags Chet Holmgren).
  • 1-PG, Collin Gillespie #2, Villanova, 10.35, 6'3", 31% chance at NBA.
  • 2-SG, Terrell Brown #23, Washington, 10.29, 6'3".
  • 1-PG, Malachi Smith #13, Chattanooga, 9.93, 6'4.

The 2nd Team All-Americans calculate as:

  • 4-PF, EJ Liddell #32, Ohio St., 9.77, 6'7", 77% chance at NBA.
  • 4-PF, Tari Eason #13, LSU, 9.52, 6'8", 79% chance at NBA.
  • 5-C, Armando Bacot #5, North Carolina, 9.48, 6'10", 59% chance at NBA.
  • 2-SG, Santiago Vescovi #25, Tennessee, 9.36, 6'3.
  • 2-SG, Nijel Pack #24, Kansas St., 9.31, 6'0.

The 3rd Team All-Americans calculate as:

  • 3-SF, Matt Bradley #3, San Diego St., 9.25, 6'4", 28% chance at NBA.
  • 5-C, Trayce Jackson-Davis #23, Indiana, 9.23, 6'9", 78% chance at NBA.
  • 1-PG, Jamaree Bouyea #1, San Francisco, 9.21, 6'2", 80% chance at NBA.
  • 1-PG, Kendric Davis #3, SMU, 9.2, 6'0, 27% chance at NBA.
  • 5-C, Chet Holmgren #34, Gonzaga, 9.06, 7'0, 97% chance at NBA, by far the top freshman ranking, as freshman generally make enough mistakes (bad shots, turnovers) to not rank as highly despite long-term potential to dominate.

Note, both Ochai Abdaji of Kansas and Wendell Moore of Duke are just outside the All-American list and could play themselves back into it. Abdaji rated as an All-American until having a bit of an off tournament.


For all conference teams, simply go to www.valueaddbasketball.com and then enter the conference abbreviation in the "Conf" search box.

John Pudner 404.606.3163

Saturday, March 26, 2022

Top 2% of College Basketball Players This Season

The following are the best of the best college basketball players this year - those who rank in the top 2% of all players in the updated www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Please check on this CBS/247 Sports site for a story on the top trio and top duo in these rankings both making the NCAA Final 4. Player ratings are final, except we will update stats for these 14 games. 

DateGames to be added to Value Add ratingsTournament
26-MarVillanova 50, Houston 44NCAA
26-MarDuke 78, Arkansas 69NCAA
26-MarSouthern Utah 77, Portland 66Basketball Classic
27-MarMiami FL vs. KansasNCAA
27-MarSaint Peter's vs. North CarolinaNCAA
28-MarCoastal Carolina at South AlabamaBasketball Classic
28-MarSouthern Utah at Fresno St.Basketball Classic
29-MarWashington St. vs. Texas A&MNIT
29-MarSt. Bonaventure vs. XavierNIT
31-MarWashington St. or Tex A&M vs. Xavier or St. BonaventureNIT
31-MarCoastal Car. or S. Alabama vs. Southern Utah or Fresno St.Basketball Classic
2-AprDuke vs. UNC or Saint Peter'sNCAA
2-AprVillanova vs. Kansas or MiamiNCAA
4-AprDuke, UNC or Saint Peter's vs. Villanova, Kansas or MiamiNCAA

The 17 players bolded below are in the top 2% and can still move up or down based on the results of the games above. The breakdown by conference of these elite players in the top 2% are:

12 - Big Ten and SEC
9 - ACC
7 - Big East
6 - Mountain West, Pac-12, West Coast Conference
5 - Big 12 and American
4 - Missouri Valley
3 - A10
2 - CUSA, Ohio Valley, Sun Belt
1 - AE, SC, Summit, WAC
 
RnkPlayerTeamValueConfHtNBA%
1Keegan Murray #15Iowa12.31B106'8"90
2Oscar Tshiebwe #34Kentucky12.13SEC6'9"80
3Collin Gillespie #2Villanova10.35BE6'3"31
4Terrell Brown #23Washington10.29P126'3" 
5Malachi Smith #13Chattanooga9.93SC6'4" 
6EJ Liddell #32Ohio St.9.77B106'7"77
7Tari Eason #13LSU9.52SEC6'8"79
8Armando Bacot #5North Carolina9.48ACC6'10"59
9Santiago Vescovi #25Tennessee9.36SEC6'3" 
10Nijel Pack #24Kansas St.9.31B126'0 
11Matt Bradley #3San Diego St.9.25MWC6'4"28
12Trayce Jackson-Davis #23Indiana9.23B106'9"78
13Jamaree Bouyea #1San Francisco9.21WCC6'2"80
14Kendric Davis #3SMU9.20Amer6'027
15Chet Holmgren #34Gonzaga9.06WCC7'097
16David Roddy #21Colorado St.8.98MWC6'6" 
17Hunter Dickinson #1Michigan8.88B107'1"36
18Justin Bean #34Utah St.8.87MWC6'7"28
19Ochai Agbaji #30Kansas8.82B126'5"90
20Wendell Moore #0Duke8.76ACC6'5"86
21Hunter Maldonado #24Wyoming8.62MWC6'7" 
22Baylor Scheierman #3South Dakota St.8.59Sum6'6" 
23Walker Kessler #13Auburn8.53SEC7'1"87
24Izaiah Brockington #1Iowa St.8.44B126'4"75
26Scotty Pippen #2Vanderbilt8.42SEC6'3"41
25Tylor Perry #5North Texas8.42CUSA5'11" 
27Keon Ellis #14Alabama8.39SEC6'6"73
28Bennedict Mathurin #0Arizona8.37P126'6"94
29Alex Barcello #13BYU8.33WCC6'2"49
30Jabari Smith #10Auburn8.32SEC6'10"99
31Posh Alexander #0St. John's8.31BE6'037
32Johnny Davis #1Wisconsin8.24B106'5"93
33Ryan Kalkbrenner #11Creighton8.19BE7'1" 
34Garrett Sturtz #3Drake8.18MVC6'3" 
35Payton Willis #0Minnesota8.14B106'4" 
36Vince Williams #10VCU8.12A106'6" 
37Jacob Gilyard #0Richmond8.00A105'9"25
38Iverson Molinar #1Mississippi St.7.98SEC6'3"79
39Tevin Brown #10Murray St.7.93OVC6'5" 
40Kennedy Chandler #1Tennessee7.92SEC6'082
41Kameron McGusty #23Miami FL7.92ACC6'5"43
43Mark Williams #15Duke7.85ACC7'082
42Norchad Omier #15Arkansas St.7.85SB6'7" 
44Kyler Edwards #11Houston7.81Amer6'4"26
45Jalen Williams #24Santa Clara7.80WCC6'6"63
46Justin Moore #5Villanova7.79BE6'4"63
47RJ Cole #2Connecticut7.78BE6'1" 
49Jaden Ivey #23Purdue7.67B106'4"98
48Lucas Williamson #1Loyola Chicago7.67MVC6'4" 
50Teddy Allen #0New Mexico St.7.63WAC6'6" 
51Isiaih Mosley #1Missouri St.7.62MVC6'5" 
52Andrew Nembhard #3Gonzaga7.62WCC6'5"45
53Christian Braun #2Kansas7.60B126'6"65
54Alondes Williams #31Wake Forest7.59ACC6'5"72
55Michael Flowers #12Washington St.7.58P126'1" 
56Kofi Cockburn #21Illinois7.55B107'060
57KJ Williams #0Murray St.7.54OVC6'10" 
58Keve Aluma #22Virginia Tech7.52ACC6'9"55
59Brad Davison #34Wisconsin7.50B106'4" 
60Orlando Robinson #10Fresno St.7.48MWC7'086
61Souley Boum #0UTEP7.36CUSA6'3" 
62Paolo Banchero #5Duke7.34ACC6'10"95
63Jamal Shead #1Houston7.33Amer6'1" 
64Jaime Jaquez #24UCLA7.27P126'7"62
65Abu Kigab #24Boise St.7.26MWC6'7" 
66Fabian White #35Houston7.25Amer6'8" 
67Zach Edey #15Purdue7.21B107'4"45
68Drew Timme #2Gonzaga7.19WCC6'10"60
69Christian Koloko #35Arizona7.18P127'1"63
70Jack Nunge #24Xavier7.16BE7'0 
71JD Notae #1Arkansas7.15SEC6'2"77
73Jules Bernard #1UCLA7.14P126'7"33
72Trent Frazier #1Illinois7.14B106'2" 
74Foster Loyer #0Davidson7.14A106'0 
75Ben Shungu #24Vermont7.13AE6'2" 
76Reece Beekman #2Virginia7.12ACC6'3" 
77Javon Franklin #13South Alabama7.12SB6'7" 
78Javon Freeman-Liberty #4DePaul7.11BE6'4" 
79Tristen Newton #2East Carolina7.10Amer6'5" 
80Mark Smith #13Kansas St.7.06B126'4" 
82Jake LaRavia #0Wake Forest7.04ACC6'8" 
81Tyrece Radford #23Texas A&M7.04SEC6'2" 
83Marcus Domask #1Southern Illinois7.03MVC6'6" 
84Darius Days #4LSU7.01SEC6'7"49
85Eli Brooks #55Michigan6.97B106'1"

Thursday, March 17, 2022

Coaches Bracket Best at incredible 28-4

The first round is complete, and of the seven bracket options we gave before the tournament, by far the best performing has been the coaches bracket at 28-4. The only four winners it missed are New Mexico State, UNC, St. Peter's and Richmond.

Bolded lines means the team won, so any bolded "0" is a loss.

Total records:

Best Coaches 28-4

Most NBA Talent 23-9

Best Road Wins 23-9

Value Add of Healthy Players 22-10

Combo of all others 22-10

Hottest Teams 21-11

Best Guards 18-14


TeamValue Add SumCoachRoadNBASr. GuardsHottestMain
Gonzaga6331266
Georgia St.0000000
Boise St.0000100
Memphis1113011
 0000000
Connecticut2122311
New Mexico St.0000000
Arkansas1211022
Vermont0000100
 0000000
Alabama1012101
Rutgers/ND0200010
Texas Tech3161533
Montana St.0000000
 0000000
Michigan St.0111001
Davidson1000210
Duke2624122
Cal St. Fullerton0000000
        
Team0000000
Baylor2131222
Norfolk St.0000000
North Carolina1003010
Marquette0210101
 0000000
Saint Mary's1100011
Indiana/Wyoming0011100
UCLA3322443
Akron0000000
 0000000
Texas1101301
Virginia Tech0010030
Purdue2242112
Yale0000000
 0000000
Murray St.0100000
San Francisco1011111
Kentucky4426224
Saint Peter's0000000
        
Team0000000
Arizona5155133
Bryant/Wright St.0000000
Seton Hall0001301
TCU1210010
 0000000
Houston2301122
UAB0010000
Illinois1122011
Chattanooga0000200
 0000000
Colorado St.0000010
Michigan1112201
Tennessee2221142
Longwood0000000
 0000000
Ohio St.0111000
Loyola Chicago1000121
Villanova3533615
Delaware0000000
        
Team0000000
Kansas4433424
Texas So/TA&M CC0000000
San Diego St.1000111
Creighton0111000
 0000000
Iowa2212151
Richmond0000000
Providence1121202
South Dakota St.0000010
 0000000
LSU1002011
Iowa St.0110300
Wisconsin2241122
Colgate0000000
 0000000
USC1001000
Miami FL0120211
Auburn3314133
Jacksonville St.0000000

Monday, March 14, 2022

March Madness Brackets based on Value Add, Coaches, Road Wins, NBA Talent, Experienced Guards, Hottest Team

NEW YORK – Like many organizations we take a break for a Facebook post wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays in December, and by now almost all of you are used to my once-a-year sports e-mail with suggested March Madness brackets as I depart Madison Square Garden (pictured below) each March. If you care nothing about college basketball and just want to fill out a bracket so an office co-worker will stop bothering you, scroll to the table at the bottom of the email or click here and use the table to fill in your picks.
 

 

If you want more detail then you can read my CBS Sports 247 story pictured above, look up any team's players at Value Add Basketball, or scroll through the blogs at www.pudnersports.com. 

 
This fun sports stuff is just a hobby to break away from my work-a-holic pace at www.takebackaction.org for a few days each March, so if you want to reach me on more important matters you can still email me at johnp@takebackaction.org, call 404.606.3163 or visit our office that recently moved from Auburn to near Marquette's campus in Milwaukee WI.
 
If you are still reading :-) then you must at least enjoy watching a few March Madness games so here is the breakdown. First off, the seven categories that are most important to winning a championship indicate several teams have a real shot at the title this year. Here are the championship game results based on each of the systems:
  
1.    Value Add Sum (see screenshot below); National Champ (6 lines) Gonzaga beats Runner-up (5 lines) Arizona.
2.    Coaches’ history of tourney runs; Duke beats Gonzaga.
3.    Road Warriors (best wins away from home): Texas Tech beats Arizona
4.    Most NBA Talent: Kentucky beats Arizona
5.    Best Experienced Guards: Villanova beats Texas Tech
6.    Hottest Team: Gonzaga beats Iowa
7.    Our Main Bracket (combo of above): Gonzaga beats Villanova 
  
Method 1 – Value Add Sum (Gonzaga beats Arizona for title). This uses the sum of the values of all players. This is similar to the rankings at www.kenpom.com except it adjusts for any players out injured, or for players who have returned to make the team stronger. If “Healthy” appears in the notes by a player at www.valueaddbasketball.com - such as in the screenshot below where Kofi Cockburn makes the Illini even better than their www.kenpom.com rating because he missed some games early but is back strong now. On the downside, the “Inj” by Jacob Grandison indicates the Illini will be 5.23 points worse if he is not recovered from his shoulder injury in time to play this week.
 
  
 
Method 2 - Coaches’ history of tourney runs (Duke beats Gonzaga for title). Coach K’s final year could end like Al McGuire’s career ended at Marquette, with a title. Of all current D1 coaches, 78% have NEVER won a tournament game, much less gone on a run. This does not pass judgment on how good a coach is, just if they have experience making tournament runs. For example, Tommy Lloyd has been a great assistant all the way to the finals before taking over as head coach of Arizona this year, and Big East Coach of the Year Ed Cooley has won only one tournament game in his 10 years at Providence but is one of the best coaches in the country. 
 
Method 3 - Road Warriors (best wins away from home): Texas Tech beats Arizona for title. This measure the teams with the best three wins away from home this season, based on their opponents’ average www.kenpom.com rating. Anyone can win at home - but there are no home games in March Madness.
 
Method 4 - Most NBA Talent (Kentucky beats Arizona for title): Five players from both Duke and Kentucky should be on NBA teams in a year, but we went with Kentucky in a judgement call if they beat Duke. Based on their NBA-level talent, Arizona wins their half of the bracket.
 
Method 5 - Best Experienced Guards (Villanova beats Texas Tech for title): If Villanova takes their third title in six years, it will once again be based on having the best experienced guards in the nation, starting with All-American and Big East Player of the Year Collin Gillespie. Our analytics indicate the only point guard in the nation as good as Gillespie is Malachi Smith - the one from Chattanooga not the one from Dayton (who is also very good).
 
Method 6 - Hottest Team (Gonzaga beats Iowa to title): Iowa’s Keegan Murray is in a 2-way battle for the most valuable player in the country with Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe based on our Value Add calculations, and no player or team is hotter than him and Iowa.
 
Method 7 -Our Main Bracket (combo of above) – Gonzaga beats Villanova for title. Our main bracket entails averaging all of these factors together but weighting heavier for the first factor – the sum of the Value Add (www.valueaddbasketball.com) rankings of each player on the team who is healthy to play.
  
Here is the table. Pick the category you want to use and go down that column a list the teams on the number of lines indicated (e.g. if using "Value Add Sum" in the first column, list Gonzaga on 6 lines to make them the national champ, but if using "Coach" in the second column then list them e lines to make them Elite 8, etc. However, have some fun and list your favorite team or a team you thought looked really good on TV.  The better team wins two out of three times in basketball The fun of the bracket is guessing at those one in three times the underdog wins.

TeamValue Add SumCoachRoadNBASr. GuardsHottestMain
Gonzaga6331266
Georgia St.0000000
Boise St.0000100
Memphis1113011
 0000000
Connecticut2122311
New Mexico St.0000000
Arkansas1211022
Vermont0000100
 0000000
Alabama1012101
Rutgers/ND0200010
Texas Tech3161533
Montana St.0000000
 0000000
Michigan St.0111001
Davidson1000210
Duke2624122
Cal St. Fullerton0000000
        
Team0000000
Baylor2131222
Norfolk St.0000000
North Carolina1003010
Marquette0210101
 0000000
Saint Mary's1100011
Indiana/Wyoming0011100
UCLA3322443
Akron0000000
 0000000
Texas1101301
Virginia Tech0010030
Purdue2242112
Yale0000000
 0000000
Murray St.0100000
San Francisco1011111
Kentucky4426224
Saint Peter's0000000
        
Team0000000
Arizona5155133
Bryant/Wright St.0000000
Seton Hall0001301
TCU1210010
 0000000
Houston2301122
UAB0010000
Illinois1122011
Chattanooga0000200
 0000000
Colorado St.0000010
Michigan1112201
Tennessee2221142
Longwood0000000
 0000000
Ohio St.0111000
Loyola Chicago1000121
Villanova3533615
Delaware0000000
        
Team0000000
Kansas4433424
Texas So/TA&M CC0000000
San Diego St.1000111
Creighton0111000
 0000000
Iowa2212151
Richmond0000000
Providence1121202
South Dakota St.0000010
 0000000
LSU1002011
Iowa St.0110300
Wisconsin2241122
Colgate0000000
 0000000
USC1001000
Miami FL0120211
Auburn3314133
Jacksonville St.0000000

Sunday, March 13, 2022

CBS 247 Post Breaking Down the Brackets


 https://247sports.com/college/marquette/Article/Pudner-Assesses-MUs-momentum-into-the-NCAA-Tournament-184374185/

My phone has been blowing up asking if I will be emailing and posting brackets tonight, which I will. In this CBS/247 piece I break down the rankings of all tournament teams based on how healthy and good the team is they are putting on the court, coaches, experienced guards, proven ability to win tough games away from home and NBA-caliber players on their team. If you want an email breakdown just send me one at johnp@takebackaction.org or watch for posts.

SMU has lost and if Texas A&M doesn't rally from double digits down then both will wait nervously to see if they are picked for the tournament tonight.

March Madness - Composite Cheat Sheet of All Bracket Methods

The following is the metrix summarizing where each of the March Madness teams ranked based on the different factors that often point to winners advancing on a bracket. You can use this as a cheat sheet and decide on which factor you want to put the most emphasis when filling out your bracket.

Best on Court - is the www.valueaddbasketball.com measurement of how good the players on the court will be - adjusting for players who will not play as outlined in the March Madness 8 blog (and factoring items in blogs 3 and 4). You can find the details by injured players at the Value Add Bsaketball link.

Coach - ranks the coaches based on if they have proven they can take their teams on deep runs, as outlined in March Madness 2 - and note that I know also list the coaches along with the players at www.valueaddbasketball.com

Road - ranks the teams by which has the most impressive wins away from home as outlined in March Madness 7.

NBA - ranks the teams based on which has the most NBA talent, as outlined in March Madness 1.

Sr. Guards - ranks the teams base on if they have experienced guards and if so how good they are, as outlined in March Madness 5

Hottest - ranks the teams based on how well they have played lately and thus if they seem to be hot going into the tournament, as outlined in March Madness 6

The final "Ave." number just lets me put the rest in order by averaging them together, except that I do factor the "Best on Court" ranking triple as much as I weight each of the other give, since it is the most important one.

 
TeamBest on CourtCoachRoadNBASr. GuardsHottestAve.
Gonzaga16231511
Kansas7412102352
Kentucky658229133
Villanova829171254
UCLA21241136115
Duke91315766
Texas Tech446127477
Baylor16715534188
Tennessee10913146149
Houston5115340131510
Purdue1117515374111
Arizona34271171912
Illinois1833162023013
Arkansas1920243030314
Connecticut14322319143515
Iowa1334262344216
Auburn128259702117
Texas2416391252618
Memphis284314431819
Michigan23241716263920
Alabama2122366175121
San Diego St.22512837101222
Saint Mary's17283555211423
San Francisco2050423681024
Loyola Chicago1560455292025
Oklahoma30152154184026
TCU37191928412427
Wisconsin3126434504928
Michigan St.3631118516829
Virginia Tech32481831561630
North Carolina2744327693331
LSU2523408734832
Boise St.33553043163133
Miami FL49101035274734
Davidson29294758352735
Colorado St.35533741331736
Seton Hall4636442673837
Wake Forest34525138223738
Iowa St.39452925256339
USC43184321525440
Marquette41143344485541
Texas A&M5521639642342
Ohio St.51252022495343
Murray St.26415669582244
Vermont3859625133645
Providence45383150284546
SMU47575846123447
Rutgers58374632431948
Indiana42472729675649
Xavier40493833397350
BYU44544842206051
Notre Dame56135724682852
UAB48395256244453
Creighton53273449632954
Richmond52355448195255
Wyoming50615053114356
Princeton60632259363257
New Mexico St.59674963454658
Long Beach St.61306467546159
Georgia St.62626657325960
Chattanooga54725571625761
Colgate65646560385862
Saint Peter's64587047665063
Montana St.63566945606464
Yale70406864467265
South Dakota St.57765976764266
Jacksonville St.66656761407467
Longwood69667162426268
Norfolk St.67687365476669
Cal St. Fullerton72696166536970
Akron73317674746771
Delaware71716070597072
Bryant68707568557173
Wright St.74737272656574
Texas Southern75756375757675
Southeastern Louisiana76747473727576

March Madness 8 - Final and Most Important, the Best Teams Being Put on the Court

While we've broken down seven factors that can give a team a chance for an upset in March Madness, we finish with by far the most important factor - who is the best team on the court in each game?

The best team doesn't always win, but they win two-thirds of the team.

If course the first place people should go as a starting point is www.kenpom.com, who revolutionized analytics. However, I do suggest people also go to www.valueaddbasketball.com for one reason - it breaks the ratings down to each player on a team so that you know how much an injured player will hurt them or who much better their rating would be with a player who has returned.

The following rankings for all teams who will (or in a few cases might) make the tournament are based on the following:

1. VA5 indicates the sum of the player rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com - which is similar to www.kenpom.com but represent more than a point (e.g. Gonzaga is a 51.97 here and a 32.97) mainly because our math indicates players on good teams would be even more valuable if the could play more.

2. Then the big difference is the "healthy" column. If that number is 0 then there is no adjustment because there have been no major injuries. However, if that number is a positive number then it is added to the first number because it indicates the team's ranking is actually higher when a player who misses some games is back. However, a negative number means the team is missing a key player or players so is actually not as good as their www.kenpom.com or raw www.valueaddkbasketball.com ranking would indicate.

The two really tough variables are from the Big Ten. Both Illinois and Ohio State have key players that might or might not be ready to play in the tournament, so look at the notes on them in particular and move them up or down several spots based on monitoring those key injuries at this site.

The following are the most important numbers if you only read one of these blogs.

RnkTeamVA 5Healthy?Team on CourtNotes on injuries, or players who were out
1Gonzaga51.97051.97 
2UCLA47.332.5149.84Despite their loss to Arizona in the Pac-12 title game, the fact that Jaylen Clark, Cody Riley and Johnny Juzang all appear to be healthy pushes them to the No. 2 team on the court.
3Arizona46.94046.94 
4Texas Tech432.2245.22With Kevin McCullar and Terrence Shannon back, Texas Tech is loaded again.
5Houston46.18-1.344.88The drop of Houston assumes Marcus Sasser is not coming back.
6Kentucky44.56044.56 
7Kansas43.21043.21 
8Villanova42.99042.99 
9Duke42.91042.91 
10Tennessee43.51-1.3242.19As great as they have been, they are hurt by Olivier Nkamhoua being out.
11Purdue41.33041.33 
12Auburn40.95040.95 
13Iowa40.34040.34 
14Connecticut38.050.7638.81 
15Loyola Chicago37.650.9538.6 
16Baylor44.85-6.6938.16The defending champs are the most hurt, with both Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua and LJ Cryer out.
17Saint Mary's38.01038.01 
18Illinois38.82-1.337.52if Jacob Grandison's shoulder is ok and he plays, this improves by 2.3, if not drop it by 2.3 - so one of two big question marks.
19Arkansas36.64036.64 
20San Francisco36.62036.62 
21Alabama36.49036.49 
22San Diego St.36.36036.36 
23Michigan35.84035.84 
24Texas37.31-1.6835.63This drop assumes Tre Mitchell does not return - if he does they go back up to a 37.31.
25LSU35.53035.53 
26Murray St.35.42035.42 
27North Carolina36.43-1.0335.4No word on Dawson Garcia, so assuming he is out for the season.
28Memphis32.861.8434.7As disappointing as Memphis has been with all that talent, if they win the American tomorrow with Jalen Duren and DeAndre Williams playing, they could be a scary first round game.
29Davidson32.550.9133.46 
30Oklahoma33.44033.44 
31Wisconsin33.29033.29 
32Virginia Tech33.29033.29 
33Boise St.33.05033.05 
34Wake Forest31.970.6732.64 
35Colorado St.32.47032.47 
36Michigan St.32.38032.38 
37TCU32.02032.02 
38Vermont30.890.7531.64 
39Iowa St.31.31031.31 
40Xavier31.22031.22 
41Marquette30.74030.74 
42Indiana30.69030.69 
43USC30.64030.64 
44BYU30.42030.42 
45Providence29.630.6730.3 
46Seton Hall32.18-2.329.88Bryce Aiken's concussion has kept him out for a while, one of the biggest injuries and they would shoot up several spots if he returned.
47SMU29.75029.75 
48UAB30.78-1.2129.57 
49Miami FL29.35029.35 
50Wyoming29.12029.12 
51Ohio St.33.15-4.129.05Key is if Kyle Young and Zed Key are back. If not -8.2 instead of -4.1, but if back take the -4.1 away. They would move all the way up to 33rd if both are back, but drop to 60th if not - so I split the difference here.
52Richmond28.82028.82 
53Creighton29.85-1.4328.42All know Ryan Nembhard's injury hurts, but if Trey Alexander keeps playing well in his place, the inside outside with Ryan Kalkbrenner - who now ranks on the verge of All-American as the 17th best player in the country - can still make them lethal.
54Chattanooga27.480.7528.23Gillespie's only competition for 1st team All-American PG is this Malachi Smith (there is another one at Dayton), and with Silvio De Sousa back they are stronger.
55Texas A&M28.17028.17 
56Notre Dame28.15028.15 
57South Dakota St.28028 
58Rutgers27.1027.1 
59New Mexico St.25.49025.49 
60Princeton24.08024.08 
61Long Beach St.22.46022.46 
62Georgia St.19.791.421.19They will be a big underdog, but with one of their two players in the top 10% of all players, Eliel Nsoseme, back they will be a stronger challenge.
63Montana St.20.54020.54 
64Saint Peter's20.26020.26 
65Colgate19.5019.5 
66Jacksonville St.18.73018.73 
67Norfolk St.18.5018.5 
68Bryant17.10.7217.82Bryant would have ranked higher if Hall Elisias didn't miss games, but he is back now.
69Longwood17.78017.78 
70Yale17.44017.44 
71Delaware17.32017.32 
72Cal St. Fullerton17.21017.21 
73Akron16.96016.96 
74Wright St.15.83015.83 
75Texas Southern10.97010.97 
76Southeastern Louisiana10.8010.8

Saturday, March 12, 2022

March Madness 7- Best Road Warriors Take Shot at Title

Some teams feast in home games, but obviously only teams that can win away from home can advance in March Madness. We ranked the tournament teams (and a few extra still alive as of 9 p.m. Saturday) based on the impressiveness of their three most impressive road wins. 

Akron and Bryant rank last with a 200 because they did not beat a top 200 team away from home this season. For the other teams, the number represents the average www.kenpom.com ranking of the top three teams wins away from home.

Perhaps the biggest turnaround is Buzz Williams' Texas A&M squad, which lost eight straight games only to come back down the stretch and win three of their last five games away from home against a top 25 team - at Alabama and then in the SEC tournament against regular season champ Auburn and Arkansas. If they upset Tennessee in the final then they head to the tournament as SEC champs.

Only five teams have had a more impressive three wins away from home - Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Duke, Wisconsin and Purdue - so all are battle tested for the tournament.

RnkTeamtop 3Notes on wins away from home
1Texas Tech9Texas, Baylor and Tennessee.
2Gonzaga11Saint Mary's, Texas Tech, UCLA
3Duke11Duke, Gonzaga and UNC
4Wisconsin12Purdue, Houston, Saint Mary's
5Purdue14Nova, Illinois, Iowa
6Texas A&M18After 8 gm losing streak, Buzz had 3 top 25 road wins (Alabama, Auburn and Arkansas) heading into SEC title game with Tennessee.
7Arizona19 
8Kentucky20UNC, Kansas, Alabama
9Villanova21Uconn, Seton Hall, Tennessee
10Miami FL24 
11Michigan St.25 
12Kansas26 
13Tennessee26 
14Memphis27Va Tech, SMU, 2nd chance at Houston
15Michigan28 
16Virginia Tech28 
17Illinois28
18Baylor28 
19Ohio St.29
20TCU29 
21Oklahoma30 
22Princeton30 
23Arkansas31 
24Connecticut31 
25Auburn32 
26Indiana34 
27Iowa34 
28San Diego St.35 
29Iowa St.35 
30Boise St.37 
31Providence37 
32Marquette38K-State, Nova, Seton Hall
33North Carolina38 
34Creighton38 
35Colorado St.39 
36Xavier39 
37Saint Mary's39 
38Alabama39 
39LSU45 
40Texas45 
41Seton Hall49
42UCLA49 
43San Francisco49 
44USC49 
45Loyola Chicago50 
46Rutgers51 
47Davidson52 
48BYU54 
49New Mexico St.61 
50Wyoming66 
51UAB71 
52Wake Forest71 
53Richmond72 
54Houston72 
55Chattanooga72 
56Murray St.74 
57Notre Dame94 
58SMU99 
59South Dakota St.105 
60Delaware130 
61Cal St. Fullerton140 
62Vermont149beat Northern Iowa to start season by double digits
63Texas Southern152 
64Long Beach St.153 
65Colgate155 
66Georgia St.157 
67Jacksonville St.160 
68Yale168 
69Montana St.174 
70Saint Peter's177 
71Longwood188 
72Wright St.192 
73Norfolk St.193 
74Southeastern Louisiana193 
75Akron200 
76Bryant200

March Madness 6 - The Hottest Teams

One factor fans love is to pick the hottest team. I've actually found this is often overrated, as sometimes a team just needs to get on the court against a non-conference team that does not already have them scouted. However, it is certainly worth taking a look.

The two scary hot teams entering the tournament are Iowa and Arkansas, how have been better than everybody except Gonzaga since February 1.

We do a bit of reverse engineering on this by comparing each teams current www.kenpom.com rating now to what it was at the end of January. Therefore since Iowa's rating was only 18.86, we know they had to be approximately a 31.88 in February and March to get the rating all the way up to its current 23.2.

Likewise, Arkansas was just a 15.21, and have played approximately 30.03 since then. 

Gonzaga and Arizona have actually played only slightly better, and a little worse respectively, but at that level they have still been the 1st and 9th best team in the country during that stretch.
 
Feb/Mar RnkTeamConfJan 30 2022NowFeb/March
1GonzagaWCC32.6933.0633.8
2IowaB1018.8623.231.88
3ArkansasSEC15.2120.1530.03
4TennesseeSEC23.0824.427.04
5KansasB1224.3125.2127.01
6DukeACC23.9324.8826.78
7Texas TechB1224.132526.74
8MemphisAmer12.5616.624.68
9ArizonaP122826.824.4
10San FranciscoWCC15.4518.3524.15
11UCLAP1225.7525.1924.07
12San Diego St.MWC15.3718.2624.04
13KentuckySEC28.7827.0723.65
14Saint Mary'sWCC19.0319.7721.25
15HoustonAmer27.925.5320.79
16Virginia TechACC14.9716.8920.73
17Colorado St.MWC13.9115.8519.73
18BaylorB1229.7226.3519.61
19RutgersB106.5510.8319.39
20AuburnSEC27.3524.4618.68
21Murray St.OVC15.416.4118.43
22Texas A&MSEC11.4413.7318.31
23TCUB1213.3514.9118.03
24VillanovaBE27.2224.1317.95
25TexasB1221.8820.4217.5
26DavidsonA1012.8614.3617.36
27Notre DameACC11.9513.616.9
28CreightonBE11.713.4216.86
29IllinoisB1020.9319.5416.76
30Boise St.MWC16.0716.2916.73
31PrincetonIvy1.386.4816.68
32North CarolinaACC15.8116.0516.53
33SMUAmer12.3913.6616.2
34ConnecticutBE20.9519.3216.06
35VermontAE10.4812.2315.73
36Wake ForestACC14.811515.38
37Seton HallBE14.7314.9415.36
38MichiganB1016.0315.6114.77
39OklahomaB1216.7116.0414.7
40PurdueB1026.8622.6914.35
41South Dakota St.Sum10.1111.3913.95
42WyomingMWC12.7513.0513.65
43UABCUSA13.9713.813.46
44ProvidenceBE14.0713.8413.38
45New Mexico St.WAC7.649.4513.07
46Miami FLACC12.7512.6612.48
47LSUSEC22.6519.1512.15
48Saint Peter'sMAAC0.24.0311.69
49WisconsinB1017.4215.5111.69
50AlabamaSEC20.4917.3711.13
51Kent St.MAC-0.943.0611.06
52RichmondA108.299.211.02
53Ohio St.B1018.8715.789.6
54USCP1217.0114.459.33
55MarquetteBE16.37149.26
56IndianaB1017.5514.769.18
57ChattanoogaSC12.4911.38.92
58ColgatePat2.174.28.26
59Georgia St.SB-1.371.828.2
60BYUWCC16.7713.87.86
61Long Beach St.BW-1.211.677.43
62LongwoodBSth0.32.557.05
63Iowa St.B1217.8713.996.23
64Montana St.BSky1.743.065.7
65Wright St.Horz-4.16-0.895.65
66Norfolk St.MEAC-2.63-0.134.87
67AkronMAC1.242.364.6
68Louisiana TechCUSA9.47.714.33
69Michigan St.B1020.4614.843.6
70Cal St. FullertonBW1.452.063.28
71DelawareCAA2.242.342.54
72BryantNEC-2.68-0.992.39
73YaleIvy21.771.31
74XavierBE18.7112.871.19
75Jacksonville St.ASun5.32.27-3.79
76Northern ColoradoBSky-2.17-2.79-4.03
77Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd-7.49-6.68-5.06
78Southeastern LouisianaSlnd-10.34-8.73-5.51
79Texas SouthernSWAC-0.41-2.23-5.87

March Madness 5: Teams with the Experience Guards to Pull Upsets

 As of March 12 at 9 p.m., a total of 80 teams could still make the tournament either by being selected for winning their conference championship game. Nothing can be more important to an upset bid then good, experienced guards. This is where a Mid-Major can sneak up and stun a more experienced younger team.

To get a mathematical measurement, we take the www.valueaddbasketball.com ranking of each senior guard on each team then take half of the value of each junior guard on the same team to get a total. Of the 80 teams, 22 do not have any junior or senior guards with value so those teams are a zero in these rankings.

The top 3 teams in the tournament based on this metrix are:

1. Villanova looks like the national champion based on this criteria, with a senior point guard Collin Gillespie ranking as the 8th best player in the country (10.15), with junior guard Justin Moore in the top 2% of all players (we include half of his 7.59 in this ranking, and senior guard Brandon Slater in the top 3% of all players (6.73). They won the Big East title today.

2. Illinois star is center Kofi Cockburn, but their next three most valuable players are all senior guards - Trent Frazier (top 2% at 7.30), Alfonso Plummer (top 4%, 6.10) and Jacob Grandison (top 7%, 5.21).

3. Vermont. After watching Vermont's senior guards dominant UMBC 82-43 in the American East title game today, we must wonder if that conference has another big upset brewing. It has been years since Vermont sunned Syracuse in the opening round, but only a few years since their victim today, UMBC, became the first 16-seed to beat a 1-seed with a 74-54 win over a UVA team that went onto win the title the next year.

Our all-time Value Add Basketball rankings indicate senior guard Ben Shungu is the fourth Vermont player to rank in the top 2% of all players, with the first one being the senior Value Add All-American Taylor Coppenrath who scored 16 points in that 60-57 win against Syraucse in 2005. 

Here is how the rest of the team's rank based on good, experienced guards.

RnkBest Experienced GuardsAdj Value Add
1Villanova25.93
2Illinois21.89
3Vermont19.26
4Texas Tech18.10
5Texas18.04
6UCLA17.58
7Seton Hall17.08
8San Francisco16.63
9Wyoming15.64
10SMU15.40
11Houston15.34
12Connecticut15.31
13Gonzaga15.14
14Alabama14.98
15Oklahoma14.95
16Richmond14.86
17BYU14.83
18Wake Forest14.64
19Kansas13.66
20UAB13.59
21Michigan12.99
22Northern Colorado12.91
23Providence12.59
24Kentucky11.49
25Arkansas11.48
26Memphis11.29
27Baylor10.42
28Davidson10.33
29Princeton10.30
30Purdue10.00
31Colgate9.48
32Xavier9.32
33TCU9.21
34Longwood9.10
35Rutgers9.02
36Iowa8.52
37Yale8.13
38Marquette7.95
39Wisconsin7.77
40USC7.49
41Bryant6.67
42Virginia Tech6.54
43Duke6.09
44Delaware5.60
45Louisiana Tech5.30
46Tennessee5.23
47Chattanooga5.19
48Creighton5.06
49Texas A&M4.95
50Indiana4.77
51Notre Dame4.38
52North Carolina4.21
53Auburn4.07
54Arizona3.24
55Southeastern Louisiana2.92
56LSU2.81
57Akron2.64
58Texas Southern2.44
59Boise State0.00
60Cal State Fullerton0.00
61Colorado State0.00
62Georgia State0.00
63Iowa State0.00
64Jacksonville State0.00
65Kent State0.00
66Long Beach State0.00
67Loyola-Chicago0.00
68Miami (FLA.)0.00
69Michigan State0.00
70Montana State0.00
71Murray State0.00
72New Mexico State0.00
73Norfolk State0.00
74Ohio State0.00
75San Diego State0.00
76South Dakota State0.00
77St. Mary's (CA)0.00
78St. Peter's0.00
79Texas A&M-Corpus Christi0.00
80Wright State0.00

March Madness 4: Which Teams Hurt by Injuries or Helped by Returning Player

After Ohio State was listed as a +4 point favorite against a Michigan team in controversy, we noted in this blog that Michigan should actually be a 4 point favorite once adjusting for the www.valueaddbasketball.com. As we expected, Michigan won by 6.

A big factor in tournament games is not only injuries, but also if a team is actually better than their team ratings indicated because a key player missed some games. The following are the teams are actually better than their ranking at www.kenpom.com represents as long as the player listed takes the court. 

For example, Kofi Cockburn's Value Add is 8.04, but he just played 26 of 31 games so his Value Add per game played is actually 1.3 points better at 9.34. That means the +19.56 rating Illinois has at www.kenpom.com would project to a 20.86 with Cockburn on the court for March Madness which would make them the 15th best team in the country.

On the flip side, Wyoming hopes to sneak into the tournament, and if do make sure Hunter Maldanado is playing. The bottom of the chart indicates which recently injured players would hurt their team the most if out - and Maldanado was questionable a few games ago and his loss would make Wyoming -9.36 points worst. That would drop their www.kenpom.com rating from a 13.06 for 58th best in the country, to a 3.70 and the 126th best in the country.

To check on any player, click on College Basketball Injuries to make sure a key player is available.

Big factor is how health a team is.
Improves byPlayer missed gamesTeamVAGTeam G
2.23Marcus SasserHouston3.561232
2.14Bryce AikenSeton Hall4.271530
1.92Andre KellyCalifornia5.592132
1.89Khalif BattleTemple2.52728
1.54Javon Freeman-LibertyDePaul6.832431
1.47LJ CryerBaylor3.621932
1.45Tolu SmithMississippi St.3.692033
1.4Eliel NsosemeGeorgia St.4.371725
1.35Malik OsborneFlorida St.2.991731
1.31Jesse EdwardsSyracuse4.812433
1.3Kofi CockburnIllinois8.042631
1.25Colin CastletonFlorida6.682632
1.21Adrian BaldwinVCU4.542230
1.18Josip VrankicSanta Clara4.722432
1.15Jonathan Tchamwa TchatchouaBaylor5.272532
1.12Terrence ShannonTexas Tech3.372233
1.1DeAndre WilliamsMemphis4.542229
1.1Kevin McCullarTexas Tech4.542533
1.08Jarkel JoinerMississippi3.442232
1.05Dawson GarciaNorth Carolina2.091632
1.02Jaylen ClarkUCLA5.292531
0.95Marquise KennedyLoyola Chicago3.272231
0.91Foster LoyerDavidson6.812630
0.91Sam GrieselNorth Dakota St.4.682531
0.91Olivier NkamhouaTennessee3.132231
0.9Branden CarlsonUtah3.982431
0.88Noel ColemanHawaii2.861826
0.87Josh LeBlancUAB2.261931
0.86Dameane DouglasLoyola Marymount1.61328
0.85Anthony PoliteFlorida St.3.772431
0.82Tre MitchellTexas3.282432
0.8Johnny JuzangUCLA4.942631
0.78Silvio De SousaChattanooga3.562532
0.77Markquis NowellKansas St.5.972731
0.76Josh JeffersonMiddle Tennessee5.882731
0.76Tyrese MartinConnecticut6.092832
0.75Ryan DavisVermont5.852731
0.74Jalen DurenMemphis5.42529
0.74Hunter TysonClemson3.392532
0.73Sy ChatmanIllinois St.1.741831
0.72Hall ElisiasBryant3.092330
0.71Duke MilesTroy1.811728
0.7Ray'Sean TaylorSIU Edwardsville1.91930
0.7Kevion NolanJacksonville6.052326
0.69Cody RileyUCLA2.372231
0.68Bernardo Da SilvaHawaii3.562126
0.67Jared BynumProvidence4.992630
0.67Damari MonsantoWake Forest1.191432
0.66Jalen CookTulane4.592428
0.66Souley BoumUTEP6.592730
inj -1.25RJ MelendezIllinois1.62131
if inj -1.5PJ HallClemson4.53030
if inj -1.53Darnell RogersUMBC1.42828
inj -1.57Cam'Ron FletcherFlorida St.1.622929
if inj -2.29Jamaine MannVanderbilt2.172433
if inj -2.35Warith AlatisheOregon St.1.552828
inj -2.46Caleb MillsFlorida St.2.692631
if inj -2.76Keondre KennedyUMBC2.072929
if inj -2.85Jeremiah WilliamsTemple2.442228
inj -2.9Hunter MarksHartford2.42020
if inj -2.99Steven AshworthUtah St.3.873131
inj -3.47Brandon MahanUCF3.332530
if inj -3.87Zed KeyOhio St.3.22730
if inj -4.62Kyle YoungOhio St.3.732530
if inj -5.23Jacob GrandisonIllinois4.962831
if inj - 5.74Vince WilliamsVCU7.692830
if inj -5.79Brandon NewmanPurdue1.392121
if inj -9.36Hunter MaldonadoWyoming8.813232