Our CBS Sports/247: Value Add Top Trio (Duke) and Top Duo (Nova) Reach Final 4

(This is the email that went out to our sports list. Email johnp@takebackaction.org if you would like to be added to that list). 

The www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings are final for the players on 342 of 358 teams. PudnerSports.com lists the schedule for the last 16 teams in the Basketball Classic, NIT and of course NCAA, as well as listing the top 2% of the 4,258 players in the www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings.

Click on the picture below or on this link for our CBS Sports/247 Story on how the top trio in basketball (yes better than Gonzaga's according to our rankings) led Duke and Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s to the Final 4, while the top duo in the country (including Collin Gillespie, pictured) led Villanova to the Final 4.  They await the winner of the two games on CBS today, with Miami leading Kansas at the half as ACC fans hope they hold on and UNC tops Saint Peter's in the finale after that game to give the ACC three of the Final 4 teams.

Scroll further down for our final National Player of the Year and All-American teams.

The Value Add Basketball National Player of the Year battle was one of our closest ever, with Iowa's Keegan Murray nudging out Kentucky's Oscar Tshiebwe with respective Value Adds of 12.31 to 12.13. That means both team would be expected to be 12 points worse if either of those MVPs had to miss a game - so turning a 6-point win into a 6-point loss.

Our Final 1st Team All-Americans calculate as:

• 4-PF, Keegan Murray #15, Iowa, 12.31, 6'8", 90% chance at NBA.
• 5-C, Oscar Tshiebwe #34, Kentucky, 12.13, 6'9", 80% chance at NBA. Top defensive rating in country at -4.47 points erased from opponent (edges out Auburn's Kessler and the Zags Chet Holmgren).
• 1-PG, Collin Gillespie #2, Villanova, 10.35, 6'3", 31% chance at NBA.
• 2-SG, Terrell Brown #23, Washington, 10.29, 6'3".
• 1-PG, Malachi Smith #13, Chattanooga, 9.93, 6'4.

The 2nd Team All-Americans calculate as:

• 4-PF, EJ Liddell #32, Ohio St., 9.77, 6'7", 77% chance at NBA.
• 4-PF, Tari Eason #13, LSU, 9.52, 6'8", 79% chance at NBA.
• 5-C, Armando Bacot #5, North Carolina, 9.48, 6'10", 59% chance at NBA.
• 2-SG, Santiago Vescovi #25, Tennessee, 9.36, 6'3.
• 2-SG, Nijel Pack #24, Kansas St., 9.31, 6'0.

The 3rd Team All-Americans calculate as:

• 3-SF, Matt Bradley #3, San Diego St., 9.25, 6'4", 28% chance at NBA.
• 5-C, Trayce Jackson-Davis #23, Indiana, 9.23, 6'9", 78% chance at NBA.
• 1-PG, Jamaree Bouyea #1, San Francisco, 9.21, 6'2", 80% chance at NBA.
• 1-PG, Kendric Davis #3, SMU, 9.2, 6'0, 27% chance at NBA.
• 5-C, Chet Holmgren #34, Gonzaga, 9.06, 7'0, 97% chance at NBA, by far the top freshman ranking, as freshman generally make enough mistakes (bad shots, turnovers) to not rank as highly despite long-term potential to dominate.

Note, both Ochai Abdaji of Kansas and Wendell Moore of Duke are just outside the All-American list and could play themselves back into it. Abdaji rated as an All-American until having a bit of an off tournament.

For all conference teams, simply go to www.valueaddbasketball.com and then enter the conference abbreviation in the "Conf" search box.

John Pudner 404.606.3163

Top 2% of College Basketball Players This Season

The following are the best of the best college basketball players this year - those who rank in the top 2% of all players in the updated www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Please check on this CBS/247 Sports site for a story on the top trio and top duo in these rankings both making the NCAA Final 4. Player ratings are final, except we will update stats for these 14 games. 

Date	Games to be added to Value Add ratings	Tournament
26-Mar	Villanova 50, Houston 44	NCAA
26-Mar	Duke 78, Arkansas 69	NCAA
26-Mar	Southern Utah 77, Portland 66	Basketball Classic
27-Mar	Miami FL vs. Kansas	NCAA
27-Mar	Saint Peter's vs. North Carolina	NCAA
28-Mar	Coastal Carolina at South Alabama	Basketball Classic
28-Mar	Southern Utah at Fresno St.	Basketball Classic
29-Mar	Washington St. vs. Texas A&M	NIT
29-Mar	St. Bonaventure vs. Xavier	NIT
31-Mar	Washington St. or Tex A&M vs. Xavier or St. Bonaventure	NIT
31-Mar	Coastal Car. or S. Alabama vs. Southern Utah or Fresno St.	Basketball Classic
2-Apr	Duke vs. UNC or Saint Peter's	NCAA
2-Apr	Villanova vs. Kansas or Miami	NCAA
4-Apr	Duke, UNC or Saint Peter's vs. Villanova, Kansas or Miami	NCAA

The 17 players bolded below are in the top 2% and can still move up or down based on the results of the games above. The breakdown by conference of these elite players in the top 2% are:

12 - Big Ten and SEC

9 - ACC

7 - Big East

6 - Mountain West, Pac-12, West Coast Conference

5 - Big 12 and American

4 - Missouri Valley

3 - A10

2 - CUSA, Ohio Valley, Sun Belt

1 - AE, SC, Summit, WAC

 

Rnk	Player	Team	Value	Conf	Ht	NBA%
1	Keegan Murray #15	Iowa	12.31	B10	6'8"	90
2	Oscar Tshiebwe #34	Kentucky	12.13	SEC	6'9"	80
3	Collin Gillespie #2	Villanova	10.35	BE	6'3"	31
4	Terrell Brown #23	Washington	10.29	P12	6'3"
5	Malachi Smith #13	Chattanooga	9.93	SC	6'4"
6	EJ Liddell #32	Ohio St.	9.77	B10	6'7"	77
7	Tari Eason #13	LSU	9.52	SEC	6'8"	79
8	Armando Bacot #5	North Carolina	9.48	ACC	6'10"	59
9	Santiago Vescovi #25	Tennessee	9.36	SEC	6'3"
10	Nijel Pack #24	Kansas St.	9.31	B12	6'0
11	Matt Bradley #3	San Diego St.	9.25	MWC	6'4"	28
12	Trayce Jackson-Davis #23	Indiana	9.23	B10	6'9"	78
13	Jamaree Bouyea #1	San Francisco	9.21	WCC	6'2"	80
14	Kendric Davis #3	SMU	9.20	Amer	6'0	27
15	Chet Holmgren #34	Gonzaga	9.06	WCC	7'0	97
16	David Roddy #21	Colorado St.	8.98	MWC	6'6"
17	Hunter Dickinson #1	Michigan	8.88	B10	7'1"	36
18	Justin Bean #34	Utah St.	8.87	MWC	6'7"	28
19	Ochai Agbaji #30	Kansas	8.82	B12	6'5"	90
20	Wendell Moore #0	Duke	8.76	ACC	6'5"	86
21	Hunter Maldonado #24	Wyoming	8.62	MWC	6'7"
22	Baylor Scheierman #3	South Dakota St.	8.59	Sum	6'6"
23	Walker Kessler #13	Auburn	8.53	SEC	7'1"	87
24	Izaiah Brockington #1	Iowa St.	8.44	B12	6'4"	75
26	Scotty Pippen #2	Vanderbilt	8.42	SEC	6'3"	41
25	Tylor Perry #5	North Texas	8.42	CUSA	5'11"
27	Keon Ellis #14	Alabama	8.39	SEC	6'6"	73
28	Bennedict Mathurin #0	Arizona	8.37	P12	6'6"	94
29	Alex Barcello #13	BYU	8.33	WCC	6'2"	49
30	Jabari Smith #10	Auburn	8.32	SEC	6'10"	99
31	Posh Alexander #0	St. John's	8.31	BE	6'0	37
32	Johnny Davis #1	Wisconsin	8.24	B10	6'5"	93
33	Ryan Kalkbrenner #11	Creighton	8.19	BE	7'1"
34	Garrett Sturtz #3	Drake	8.18	MVC	6'3"
35	Payton Willis #0	Minnesota	8.14	B10	6'4"
36	Vince Williams #10	VCU	8.12	A10	6'6"
37	Jacob Gilyard #0	Richmond	8.00	A10	5'9"	25
38	Iverson Molinar #1	Mississippi St.	7.98	SEC	6'3"	79
39	Tevin Brown #10	Murray St.	7.93	OVC	6'5"
40	Kennedy Chandler #1	Tennessee	7.92	SEC	6'0	82
41	Kameron McGusty #23	Miami FL	7.92	ACC	6'5"	43
43	Mark Williams #15	Duke	7.85	ACC	7'0	82
42	Norchad Omier #15	Arkansas St.	7.85	SB	6'7"
44	Kyler Edwards #11	Houston	7.81	Amer	6'4"	26
45	Jalen Williams #24	Santa Clara	7.80	WCC	6'6"	63
46	Justin Moore #5	Villanova	7.79	BE	6'4"	63
47	RJ Cole #2	Connecticut	7.78	BE	6'1"
49	Jaden Ivey #23	Purdue	7.67	B10	6'4"	98
48	Lucas Williamson #1	Loyola Chicago	7.67	MVC	6'4"
50	Teddy Allen #0	New Mexico St.	7.63	WAC	6'6"
51	Isiaih Mosley #1	Missouri St.	7.62	MVC	6'5"
52	Andrew Nembhard #3	Gonzaga	7.62	WCC	6'5"	45
53	Christian Braun #2	Kansas	7.60	B12	6'6"	65
54	Alondes Williams #31	Wake Forest	7.59	ACC	6'5"	72
55	Michael Flowers #12	Washington St.	7.58	P12	6'1"
56	Kofi Cockburn #21	Illinois	7.55	B10	7'0	60
57	KJ Williams #0	Murray St.	7.54	OVC	6'10"
58	Keve Aluma #22	Virginia Tech	7.52	ACC	6'9"	55
59	Brad Davison #34	Wisconsin	7.50	B10	6'4"
60	Orlando Robinson #10	Fresno St.	7.48	MWC	7'0	86
61	Souley Boum #0	UTEP	7.36	CUSA	6'3"
62	Paolo Banchero #5	Duke	7.34	ACC	6'10"	95
63	Jamal Shead #1	Houston	7.33	Amer	6'1"
64	Jaime Jaquez #24	UCLA	7.27	P12	6'7"	62
65	Abu Kigab #24	Boise St.	7.26	MWC	6'7"
66	Fabian White #35	Houston	7.25	Amer	6'8"
67	Zach Edey #15	Purdue	7.21	B10	7'4"	45
68	Drew Timme #2	Gonzaga	7.19	WCC	6'10"	60
69	Christian Koloko #35	Arizona	7.18	P12	7'1"	63
70	Jack Nunge #24	Xavier	7.16	BE	7'0
71	JD Notae #1	Arkansas	7.15	SEC	6'2"	77
73	Jules Bernard #1	UCLA	7.14	P12	6'7"	33
72	Trent Frazier #1	Illinois	7.14	B10	6'2"
74	Foster Loyer #0	Davidson	7.14	A10	6'0
75	Ben Shungu #24	Vermont	7.13	AE	6'2"
76	Reece Beekman #2	Virginia	7.12	ACC	6'3"
77	Javon Franklin #13	South Alabama	7.12	SB	6'7"
78	Javon Freeman-Liberty #4	DePaul	7.11	BE	6'4"
79	Tristen Newton #2	East Carolina	7.10	Amer	6'5"
80	Mark Smith #13	Kansas St.	7.06	B12	6'4"
82	Jake LaRavia #0	Wake Forest	7.04	ACC	6'8"
81	Tyrece Radford #23	Texas A&M	7.04	SEC	6'2"
83	Marcus Domask #1	Southern Illinois	7.03	MVC	6'6"
84	Darius Days #4	LSU	7.01	SEC	6'7"	49
85	Eli Brooks #55	Michigan	6.97	B10	6'1"

Coaches Bracket Best at incredible 28-4

The first round is complete, and of the seven bracket options we gave before the tournament, by far the best performing has been the coaches bracket at 28-4. The only four winners it missed are New Mexico State, UNC, St. Peter's and Richmond.

Bolded lines means the team won, so any bolded "0" is a loss.

Total records:

Best Coaches 28-4

Most NBA Talent 23-9

Best Road Wins 23-9

Value Add of Healthy Players 22-10

Combo of all others 22-10

Hottest Teams 21-11

Best Guards 18-14

Team	Value Add Sum	Coach	Road	NBA	Sr. Guards	Hottest	Main
Gonzaga	6	3	3	1	2	6	6
Georgia St.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Boise St.	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Memphis	1	1	1	3	0	1	1
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Connecticut	2	1	2	2	3	1	1
New Mexico St.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Arkansas	1	2	1	1	0	2	2
Vermont	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Alabama	1	0	1	2	1	0	1
Rutgers/ND	0	2	0	0	0	1	0
Texas Tech	3	1	6	1	5	3	3
Montana St.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Michigan St.	0	1	1	1	0	0	1
Davidson	1	0	0	0	2	1	0
Duke	2	6	2	4	1	2	2
Cal St. Fullerton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Baylor	2	1	3	1	2	2	2
Norfolk St.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
North Carolina	1	0	0	3	0	1	0
Marquette	0	2	1	0	1	0	1
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Saint Mary's	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
Indiana/Wyoming	0	0	1	1	1	0	0
UCLA	3	3	2	2	4	4	3
Akron	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Texas	1	1	0	1	3	0	1
Virginia Tech	0	0	1	0	0	3	0
Purdue	2	2	4	2	1	1	2
Yale	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Murray St.	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
San Francisco	1	0	1	1	1	1	1
Kentucky	4	4	2	6	2	2	4
Saint Peter's	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Arizona	5	1	5	5	1	3	3
Bryant/Wright St.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Seton Hall	0	0	0	1	3	0	1
TCU	1	2	1	0	0	1	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Houston	2	3	0	1	1	2	2
UAB	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Illinois	1	1	2	2	0	1	1
Chattanooga	0	0	0	0	2	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Colorado St.	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Michigan	1	1	1	2	2	0	1
Tennessee	2	2	2	1	1	4	2
Longwood	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ohio St.	0	1	1	1	0	0	0
Loyola Chicago	1	0	0	0	1	2	1
Villanova	3	5	3	3	6	1	5
Delaware	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kansas	4	4	3	3	4	2	4
Texas So/TA&M CC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
San Diego St.	1	0	0	0	1	1	1
Creighton	0	1	1	1	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Iowa	2	2	1	2	1	5	1
Richmond	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Providence	1	1	2	1	2	0	2
South Dakota St.	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
LSU	1	0	0	2	0	1	1
Iowa St.	0	1	1	0	3	0	0
Wisconsin	2	2	4	1	1	2	2
Colgate	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
USC	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
Miami FL	0	1	2	0	2	1	1
Auburn	3	3	1	4	1	3	3
Jacksonville St.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

March Madness Brackets based on Value Add, Coaches, Road Wins, NBA Talent, Experienced Guards, Hottest Team

NEW YORK – Like many organizations we take a break for a Facebook post wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays in December, and by now almost all of you are used to my once-a-year sports e-mail with suggested March Madness brackets as I depart Madison Square Garden (pictured below) each March. If you care nothing about college basketball and just want to fill out a bracket so an office co-worker will stop bothering you, scroll to the table at the bottom of the email or click here and use the table to fill in your picks.

 

 

If you want more detail then you can read my CBS Sports 247 story pictured above, look up any team's players at Value Add Basketball, or scroll through the blogs at www.pudnersports.com. 

 

This fun sports stuff is just a hobby to break away from my work-a-holic pace at www.takebackaction.org for a few days each March, so if you want to reach me on more important matters you can still email me at johnp@takebackaction.org, call 404.606.3163 or visit our office that recently moved from Auburn to near Marquette's campus in Milwaukee WI.

 

If you are still reading :-) then you must at least enjoy watching a few March Madness games so here is the breakdown. First off, the seven categories that are most important to winning a championship indicate several teams have a real shot at the title this year. Here are the championship game results based on each of the systems:

  

1.    Value Add Sum (see screenshot below); National Champ (6 lines) Gonzaga beats Runner-up (5 lines) Arizona.

2.    Coaches’ history of tourney runs; Duke beats Gonzaga.

3.    Road Warriors (best wins away from home): Texas Tech beats Arizona

4.    Most NBA Talent: Kentucky beats Arizona

5.    Best Experienced Guards: Villanova beats Texas Tech

6.    Hottest Team: Gonzaga beats Iowa

7.    Our Main Bracket (combo of above): Gonzaga beats Villanova 

  

Method 1 – Value Add Sum (Gonzaga beats Arizona for title). This uses the sum of the values of all players. This is similar to the rankings at www.kenpom.com except it adjusts for any players out injured, or for players who have returned to make the team stronger. If “Healthy” appears in the notes by a player at www.valueaddbasketball.com - such as in the screenshot below where Kofi Cockburn makes the Illini even better than their www.kenpom.com rating because he missed some games early but is back strong now. On the downside, the “Inj” by Jacob Grandison indicates the Illini will be 5.23 points worse if he is not recovered from his shoulder injury in time to play this week.

 

  

 

Method 2 - Coaches’ history of tourney runs (Duke beats Gonzaga for title). Coach K’s final year could end like Al McGuire’s career ended at Marquette, with a title. Of all current D1 coaches, 78% have NEVER won a tournament game, much less gone on a run. This does not pass judgment on how good a coach is, just if they have experience making tournament runs. For example, Tommy Lloyd has been a great assistant all the way to the finals before taking over as head coach of Arizona this year, and Big East Coach of the Year Ed Cooley has won only one tournament game in his 10 years at Providence but is one of the best coaches in the country. 

 

Method 3 - Road Warriors (best wins away from home): Texas Tech beats Arizona for title. This measure the teams with the best three wins away from home this season, based on their opponents’ average www.kenpom.com rating. Anyone can win at home - but there are no home games in March Madness.

 

Method 4 - Most NBA Talent (Kentucky beats Arizona for title): Five players from both Duke and Kentucky should be on NBA teams in a year, but we went with Kentucky in a judgement call if they beat Duke. Based on their NBA-level talent, Arizona wins their half of the bracket.

 

Method 5 - Best Experienced Guards (Villanova beats Texas Tech for title): If Villanova takes their third title in six years, it will once again be based on having the best experienced guards in the nation, starting with All-American and Big East Player of the Year Collin Gillespie. Our analytics indicate the only point guard in the nation as good as Gillespie is Malachi Smith - the one from Chattanooga not the one from Dayton (who is also very good).

 

Method 6 - Hottest Team (Gonzaga beats Iowa to title): Iowa’s Keegan Murray is in a 2-way battle for the most valuable player in the country with Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe based on our Value Add calculations, and no player or team is hotter than him and Iowa.

 

Method 7 -Our Main Bracket (combo of above) – Gonzaga beats Villanova for title. Our main bracket entails averaging all of these factors together but weighting heavier for the first factor – the sum of the Value Add (www.valueaddbasketball.com) rankings of each player on the team who is healthy to play.

  

Here is the table. Pick the category you want to use and go down that column a list the teams on the number of lines indicated (e.g. if using "Value Add Sum" in the first column, list Gonzaga on 6 lines to make them the national champ, but if using "Coach" in the second column then list them e lines to make them Elite 8, etc. However, have some fun and list your favorite team or a team you thought looked really good on TV.  The better team wins two out of three times in basketball The fun of the bracket is guessing at those one in three times the underdog wins.

Team	Value Add Sum	Coach	Road	NBA	Sr. Guards	Hottest	Main
Gonzaga	6	3	3	1	2	6	6
Georgia St.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Boise St.	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Memphis	1	1	1	3	0	1	1
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Connecticut	2	1	2	2	3	1	1
New Mexico St.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Arkansas	1	2	1	1	0	2	2
Vermont	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Alabama	1	0	1	2	1	0	1
Rutgers/ND	0	2	0	0	0	1	0
Texas Tech	3	1	6	1	5	3	3
Montana St.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Michigan St.	0	1	1	1	0	0	1
Davidson	1	0	0	0	2	1	0
Duke	2	6	2	4	1	2	2
Cal St. Fullerton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Baylor	2	1	3	1	2	2	2
Norfolk St.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
North Carolina	1	0	0	3	0	1	0
Marquette	0	2	1	0	1	0	1
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Saint Mary's	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
Indiana/Wyoming	0	0	1	1	1	0	0
UCLA	3	3	2	2	4	4	3
Akron	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Texas	1	1	0	1	3	0	1
Virginia Tech	0	0	1	0	0	3	0
Purdue	2	2	4	2	1	1	2
Yale	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Murray St.	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
San Francisco	1	0	1	1	1	1	1
Kentucky	4	4	2	6	2	2	4
Saint Peter's	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Arizona	5	1	5	5	1	3	3
Bryant/Wright St.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Seton Hall	0	0	0	1	3	0	1
TCU	1	2	1	0	0	1	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Houston	2	3	0	1	1	2	2
UAB	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Illinois	1	1	2	2	0	1	1
Chattanooga	0	0	0	0	2	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Colorado St.	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Michigan	1	1	1	2	2	0	1
Tennessee	2	2	2	1	1	4	2
Longwood	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ohio St.	0	1	1	1	0	0	0
Loyola Chicago	1	0	0	0	1	2	1
Villanova	3	5	3	3	6	1	5
Delaware	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kansas	4	4	3	3	4	2	4
Texas So/TA&M CC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
San Diego St.	1	0	0	0	1	1	1
Creighton	0	1	1	1	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Iowa	2	2	1	2	1	5	1
Richmond	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Providence	1	1	2	1	2	0	2
South Dakota St.	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
LSU	1	0	0	2	0	1	1
Iowa St.	0	1	1	0	3	0	0
Wisconsin	2	2	4	1	1	2	2
Colgate	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
USC	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
Miami FL	0	1	2	0	2	1	1
Auburn	3	3	1	4	1	3	3
Jacksonville St.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

CBS 247 Post Breaking Down the Brackets

 https://247sports.com/college/marquette/Article/Pudner-Assesses-MUs-momentum-into-the-NCAA-Tournament-184374185/

My phone has been blowing up asking if I will be emailing and posting brackets tonight, which I will. In this CBS/247 piece I break down the rankings of all tournament teams based on how healthy and good the team is they are putting on the court, coaches, experienced guards, proven ability to win tough games away from home and NBA-caliber players on their team. If you want an email breakdown just send me one at johnp@takebackaction.org or watch for posts.

SMU has lost and if Texas A&M doesn't rally from double digits down then both will wait nervously to see if they are picked for the tournament tonight.

March Madness - Composite Cheat Sheet of All Bracket Methods

The following is the metrix summarizing where each of the March Madness teams ranked based on the different factors that often point to winners advancing on a bracket. You can use this as a cheat sheet and decide on which factor you want to put the most emphasis when filling out your bracket.

Best on Court - is the www.valueaddbasketball.com measurement of how good the players on the court will be - adjusting for players who will not play as outlined in the March Madness 8 blog (and factoring items in blogs 3 and 4). You can find the details by injured players at the Value Add Bsaketball link.

Coach - ranks the coaches based on if they have proven they can take their teams on deep runs, as outlined in March Madness 2 - and note that I know also list the coaches along with the players at www.valueaddbasketball.com. 

Road - ranks the teams by which has the most impressive wins away from home as outlined in March Madness 7.

NBA - ranks the teams based on which has the most NBA talent, as outlined in March Madness 1.

Sr. Guards - ranks the teams base on if they have experienced guards and if so how good they are, as outlined in March Madness 5. 

Hottest - ranks the teams based on how well they have played lately and thus if they seem to be hot going into the tournament, as outlined in March Madness 6. 

The final "Ave." number just lets me put the rest in order by averaging them together, except that I do factor the "Best on Court" ranking triple as much as I weight each of the other give, since it is the most important one.

 

Team	Best on Court	Coach	Road	NBA	Sr. Guards	Hottest	Ave.
Gonzaga	1	6	2	3	15	1	1
Kansas	7	4	12	10	23	5	2
Kentucky	6	5	8	2	29	13	3
Villanova	8	2	9	17	1	25	4
UCLA	2	12	41	13	6	11	5
Duke	9	1	3	1	57	6	6
Texas Tech	4	46	1	27	4	7	7
Baylor	16	7	15	5	34	18	8
Tennessee	10	9	13	14	61	4	9
Houston	5	11	53	40	13	15	10
Purdue	11	17	5	15	37	41	11
Arizona	3	42	7	11	71	9	12
Illinois	18	33	16	20	2	30	13
Arkansas	19	20	24	30	30	3	14
Connecticut	14	32	23	19	14	35	15
Iowa	13	34	26	23	44	2	16
Auburn	12	8	25	9	70	21	17
Texas	24	16	39	12	5	26	18
Memphis	28	43	14	4	31	8	19
Michigan	23	24	17	16	26	39	20
Alabama	21	22	36	6	17	51	21
San Diego St.	22	51	28	37	10	12	22
Saint Mary's	17	28	35	55	21	14	23
San Francisco	20	50	42	36	8	10	24
Loyola Chicago	15	60	45	52	9	20	25
Oklahoma	30	15	21	54	18	40	26
TCU	37	19	19	28	41	24	27
Wisconsin	31	26	4	34	50	49	28
Michigan St.	36	3	11	18	51	68	29
Virginia Tech	32	48	18	31	56	16	30
North Carolina	27	44	32	7	69	33	31
LSU	25	23	40	8	73	48	32
Boise St.	33	55	30	43	16	31	33
Miami FL	49	10	10	35	27	47	34
Davidson	29	29	47	58	35	27	35
Colorado St.	35	53	37	41	33	17	36
Seton Hall	46	36	44	26	7	38	37
Wake Forest	34	52	51	38	22	37	38
Iowa St.	39	45	29	25	25	63	39
USC	43	18	43	21	52	54	40
Marquette	41	14	33	44	48	55	41
Texas A&M	55	21	6	39	64	23	42
Ohio St.	51	25	20	22	49	53	43
Murray St.	26	41	56	69	58	22	44
Vermont	38	59	62	51	3	36	45
Providence	45	38	31	50	28	45	46
SMU	47	57	58	46	12	34	47
Rutgers	58	37	46	32	43	19	48
Indiana	42	47	27	29	67	56	49
Xavier	40	49	38	33	39	73	50
BYU	44	54	48	42	20	60	51
Notre Dame	56	13	57	24	68	28	52
UAB	48	39	52	56	24	44	53
Creighton	53	27	34	49	63	29	54
Richmond	52	35	54	48	19	52	55
Wyoming	50	61	50	53	11	43	56
Princeton	60	63	22	59	36	32	57
New Mexico St.	59	67	49	63	45	46	58
Long Beach St.	61	30	64	67	54	61	59
Georgia St.	62	62	66	57	32	59	60
Chattanooga	54	72	55	71	62	57	61
Colgate	65	64	65	60	38	58	62
Saint Peter's	64	58	70	47	66	50	63
Montana St.	63	56	69	45	60	64	64
Yale	70	40	68	64	46	72	65
South Dakota St.	57	76	59	76	76	42	66
Jacksonville St.	66	65	67	61	40	74	67
Longwood	69	66	71	62	42	62	68
Norfolk St.	67	68	73	65	47	66	69
Cal St. Fullerton	72	69	61	66	53	69	70
Akron	73	31	76	74	74	67	71
Delaware	71	71	60	70	59	70	72
Bryant	68	70	75	68	55	71	73
Wright St.	74	73	72	72	65	65	74
Texas Southern	75	75	63	75	75	76	75
Southeastern Louisiana	76	74	74	73	72	75	76

March Madness 8 - Final and Most Important, the Best Teams Being Put on the Court

While we've broken down seven factors that can give a team a chance for an upset in March Madness, we finish with by far the most important factor - who is the best team on the court in each game?

The best team doesn't always win, but they win two-thirds of the team.

If course the first place people should go as a starting point is www.kenpom.com, who revolutionized analytics. However, I do suggest people also go to www.valueaddbasketball.com for one reason - it breaks the ratings down to each player on a team so that you know how much an injured player will hurt them or who much better their rating would be with a player who has returned.

The following rankings for all teams who will (or in a few cases might) make the tournament are based on the following:

1. VA5 indicates the sum of the player rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com - which is similar to www.kenpom.com but represent more than a point (e.g. Gonzaga is a 51.97 here and a 32.97) mainly because our math indicates players on good teams would be even more valuable if the could play more.

2. Then the big difference is the "healthy" column. If that number is 0 then there is no adjustment because there have been no major injuries. However, if that number is a positive number then it is added to the first number because it indicates the team's ranking is actually higher when a player who misses some games is back. However, a negative number means the team is missing a key player or players so is actually not as good as their www.kenpom.com or raw www.valueaddkbasketball.com ranking would indicate.

The two really tough variables are from the Big Ten. Both Illinois and Ohio State have key players that might or might not be ready to play in the tournament, so look at the notes on them in particular and move them up or down several spots based on monitoring those key injuries at this site.

The following are the most important numbers if you only read one of these blogs.

Rnk	Team	VA 5	Healthy?	Team on Court	Notes on injuries, or players who were out
1	Gonzaga	51.97	0	51.97
2	UCLA	47.33	2.51	49.84	Despite their loss to Arizona in the Pac-12 title game, the fact that Jaylen Clark, Cody Riley and Johnny Juzang all appear to be healthy pushes them to the No. 2 team on the court.
3	Arizona	46.94	0	46.94
4	Texas Tech	43	2.22	45.22	With Kevin McCullar and Terrence Shannon back, Texas Tech is loaded again.
5	Houston	46.18	-1.3	44.88	The drop of Houston assumes Marcus Sasser is not coming back.
6	Kentucky	44.56	0	44.56
7	Kansas	43.21	0	43.21
8	Villanova	42.99	0	42.99
9	Duke	42.91	0	42.91
10	Tennessee	43.51	-1.32	42.19	As great as they have been, they are hurt by Olivier Nkamhoua being out.
11	Purdue	41.33	0	41.33
12	Auburn	40.95	0	40.95
13	Iowa	40.34	0	40.34
14	Connecticut	38.05	0.76	38.81
15	Loyola Chicago	37.65	0.95	38.6
16	Baylor	44.85	-6.69	38.16	The defending champs are the most hurt, with both Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua and LJ Cryer out.
17	Saint Mary's	38.01	0	38.01
18	Illinois	38.82	-1.3	37.52	if Jacob Grandison's shoulder is ok and he plays, this improves by 2.3, if not drop it by 2.3 - so one of two big question marks.
19	Arkansas	36.64	0	36.64
20	San Francisco	36.62	0	36.62
21	Alabama	36.49	0	36.49
22	San Diego St.	36.36	0	36.36
23	Michigan	35.84	0	35.84
24	Texas	37.31	-1.68	35.63	This drop assumes Tre Mitchell does not return - if he does they go back up to a 37.31.
25	LSU	35.53	0	35.53
26	Murray St.	35.42	0	35.42
27	North Carolina	36.43	-1.03	35.4	No word on Dawson Garcia, so assuming he is out for the season.
28	Memphis	32.86	1.84	34.7	As disappointing as Memphis has been with all that talent, if they win the American tomorrow with Jalen Duren and DeAndre Williams playing, they could be a scary first round game.
29	Davidson	32.55	0.91	33.46
30	Oklahoma	33.44	0	33.44
31	Wisconsin	33.29	0	33.29
32	Virginia Tech	33.29	0	33.29
33	Boise St.	33.05	0	33.05
34	Wake Forest	31.97	0.67	32.64
35	Colorado St.	32.47	0	32.47
36	Michigan St.	32.38	0	32.38
37	TCU	32.02	0	32.02
38	Vermont	30.89	0.75	31.64
39	Iowa St.	31.31	0	31.31
40	Xavier	31.22	0	31.22
41	Marquette	30.74	0	30.74
42	Indiana	30.69	0	30.69
43	USC	30.64	0	30.64
44	BYU	30.42	0	30.42
45	Providence	29.63	0.67	30.3
46	Seton Hall	32.18	-2.3	29.88	Bryce Aiken's concussion has kept him out for a while, one of the biggest injuries and they would shoot up several spots if he returned.
47	SMU	29.75	0	29.75
48	UAB	30.78	-1.21	29.57
49	Miami FL	29.35	0	29.35
50	Wyoming	29.12	0	29.12
51	Ohio St.	33.15	-4.1	29.05	Key is if Kyle Young and Zed Key are back. If not -8.2 instead of -4.1, but if back take the -4.1 away. They would move all the way up to 33rd if both are back, but drop to 60th if not - so I split the difference here.
52	Richmond	28.82	0	28.82
53	Creighton	29.85	-1.43	28.42	All know Ryan Nembhard's injury hurts, but if Trey Alexander keeps playing well in his place, the inside outside with Ryan Kalkbrenner - who now ranks on the verge of All-American as the 17th best player in the country - can still make them lethal.
54	Chattanooga	27.48	0.75	28.23	Gillespie's only competition for 1st team All-American PG is this Malachi Smith (there is another one at Dayton), and with Silvio De Sousa back they are stronger.
55	Texas A&M	28.17	0	28.17
56	Notre Dame	28.15	0	28.15
57	South Dakota St.	28	0	28
58	Rutgers	27.1	0	27.1
59	New Mexico St.	25.49	0	25.49
60	Princeton	24.08	0	24.08
61	Long Beach St.	22.46	0	22.46
62	Georgia St.	19.79	1.4	21.19	They will be a big underdog, but with one of their two players in the top 10% of all players, Eliel Nsoseme, back they will be a stronger challenge.
63	Montana St.	20.54	0	20.54
64	Saint Peter's	20.26	0	20.26
65	Colgate	19.5	0	19.5
66	Jacksonville St.	18.73	0	18.73
67	Norfolk St.	18.5	0	18.5
68	Bryant	17.1	0.72	17.82	Bryant would have ranked higher if Hall Elisias didn't miss games, but he is back now.
69	Longwood	17.78	0	17.78
70	Yale	17.44	0	17.44
71	Delaware	17.32	0	17.32
72	Cal St. Fullerton	17.21	0	17.21
73	Akron	16.96	0	16.96
74	Wright St.	15.83	0	15.83
75	Texas Southern	10.97	0	10.97
76	Southeastern Louisiana	10.8	0	10.8

March Madness 7- Best Road Warriors Take Shot at Title

Some teams feast in home games, but obviously only teams that can win away from home can advance in March Madness. We ranked the tournament teams (and a few extra still alive as of 9 p.m. Saturday) based on the impressiveness of their three most impressive road wins. 

Akron and Bryant rank last with a 200 because they did not beat a top 200 team away from home this season. For the other teams, the number represents the average www.kenpom.com ranking of the top three teams wins away from home.

Perhaps the biggest turnaround is Buzz Williams' Texas A&M squad, which lost eight straight games only to come back down the stretch and win three of their last five games away from home against a top 25 team - at Alabama and then in the SEC tournament against regular season champ Auburn and Arkansas. If they upset Tennessee in the final then they head to the tournament as SEC champs.

Only five teams have had a more impressive three wins away from home - Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Duke, Wisconsin and Purdue - so all are battle tested for the tournament.

Rnk	Team	top 3	Notes on wins away from home
1	Texas Tech	9	Texas, Baylor and Tennessee.
2	Gonzaga	11	Saint Mary's, Texas Tech, UCLA
3	Duke	11	Duke, Gonzaga and UNC
4	Wisconsin	12	Purdue, Houston, Saint Mary's
5	Purdue	14	Nova, Illinois, Iowa
6	Texas A&M	18	After 8 gm losing streak, Buzz had 3 top 25 road wins (Alabama, Auburn and Arkansas) heading into SEC title game with Tennessee.
7	Arizona	19
8	Kentucky	20	UNC, Kansas, Alabama
9	Villanova	21	Uconn, Seton Hall, Tennessee
10	Miami FL	24
11	Michigan St.	25
12	Kansas	26
13	Tennessee	26
14	Memphis	27	Va Tech, SMU, 2nd chance at Houston
15	Michigan	28
16	Virginia Tech	28
17	Illinois	28
18	Baylor	28
19	Ohio St.	29
20	TCU	29
21	Oklahoma	30
22	Princeton	30
23	Arkansas	31
24	Connecticut	31
25	Auburn	32
26	Indiana	34
27	Iowa	34
28	San Diego St.	35
29	Iowa St.	35
30	Boise St.	37
31	Providence	37
32	Marquette	38	K-State, Nova, Seton Hall
33	North Carolina	38
34	Creighton	38
35	Colorado St.	39
36	Xavier	39
37	Saint Mary's	39
38	Alabama	39
39	LSU	45
40	Texas	45
41	Seton Hall	49
42	UCLA	49
43	San Francisco	49
44	USC	49
45	Loyola Chicago	50
46	Rutgers	51
47	Davidson	52
48	BYU	54
49	New Mexico St.	61
50	Wyoming	66
51	UAB	71
52	Wake Forest	71
53	Richmond	72
54	Houston	72
55	Chattanooga	72
56	Murray St.	74
57	Notre Dame	94
58	SMU	99
59	South Dakota St.	105
60	Delaware	130
61	Cal St. Fullerton	140
62	Vermont	149	beat Northern Iowa to start season by double digits
63	Texas Southern	152
64	Long Beach St.	153
65	Colgate	155
66	Georgia St.	157
67	Jacksonville St.	160
68	Yale	168
69	Montana St.	174
70	Saint Peter's	177
71	Longwood	188
72	Wright St.	192
73	Norfolk St.	193
74	Southeastern Louisiana	193
75	Akron	200
76	Bryant	200

March Madness 6 - The Hottest Teams

One factor fans love is to pick the hottest team. I've actually found this is often overrated, as sometimes a team just needs to get on the court against a non-conference team that does not already have them scouted. However, it is certainly worth taking a look.

The two scary hot teams entering the tournament are Iowa and Arkansas, how have been better than everybody except Gonzaga since February 1.

We do a bit of reverse engineering on this by comparing each teams current www.kenpom.com rating now to what it was at the end of January. Therefore since Iowa's rating was only 18.86, we know they had to be approximately a 31.88 in February and March to get the rating all the way up to its current 23.2.

Likewise, Arkansas was just a 15.21, and have played approximately 30.03 since then. 

Gonzaga and Arizona have actually played only slightly better, and a little worse respectively, but at that level they have still been the 1st and 9th best team in the country during that stretch.

 

Feb/Mar Rnk	Team	Conf	Jan 30 2022	Now	Feb/March
1	Gonzaga	WCC	32.69	33.06	33.8
2	Iowa	B10	18.86	23.2	31.88
3	Arkansas	SEC	15.21	20.15	30.03
4	Tennessee	SEC	23.08	24.4	27.04
5	Kansas	B12	24.31	25.21	27.01
6	Duke	ACC	23.93	24.88	26.78
7	Texas Tech	B12	24.13	25	26.74
8	Memphis	Amer	12.56	16.6	24.68
9	Arizona	P12	28	26.8	24.4
10	San Francisco	WCC	15.45	18.35	24.15
11	UCLA	P12	25.75	25.19	24.07
12	San Diego St.	MWC	15.37	18.26	24.04
13	Kentucky	SEC	28.78	27.07	23.65
14	Saint Mary's	WCC	19.03	19.77	21.25
15	Houston	Amer	27.9	25.53	20.79
16	Virginia Tech	ACC	14.97	16.89	20.73
17	Colorado St.	MWC	13.91	15.85	19.73
18	Baylor	B12	29.72	26.35	19.61
19	Rutgers	B10	6.55	10.83	19.39
20	Auburn	SEC	27.35	24.46	18.68
21	Murray St.	OVC	15.4	16.41	18.43
22	Texas A&M	SEC	11.44	13.73	18.31
23	TCU	B12	13.35	14.91	18.03
24	Villanova	BE	27.22	24.13	17.95
25	Texas	B12	21.88	20.42	17.5
26	Davidson	A10	12.86	14.36	17.36
27	Notre Dame	ACC	11.95	13.6	16.9
28	Creighton	BE	11.7	13.42	16.86
29	Illinois	B10	20.93	19.54	16.76
30	Boise St.	MWC	16.07	16.29	16.73
31	Princeton	Ivy	1.38	6.48	16.68
32	North Carolina	ACC	15.81	16.05	16.53
33	SMU	Amer	12.39	13.66	16.2
34	Connecticut	BE	20.95	19.32	16.06
35	Vermont	AE	10.48	12.23	15.73
36	Wake Forest	ACC	14.81	15	15.38
37	Seton Hall	BE	14.73	14.94	15.36
38	Michigan	B10	16.03	15.61	14.77
39	Oklahoma	B12	16.71	16.04	14.7
40	Purdue	B10	26.86	22.69	14.35
41	South Dakota St.	Sum	10.11	11.39	13.95
42	Wyoming	MWC	12.75	13.05	13.65
43	UAB	CUSA	13.97	13.8	13.46
44	Providence	BE	14.07	13.84	13.38
45	New Mexico St.	WAC	7.64	9.45	13.07
46	Miami FL	ACC	12.75	12.66	12.48
47	LSU	SEC	22.65	19.15	12.15
48	Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.2	4.03	11.69
49	Wisconsin	B10	17.42	15.51	11.69
50	Alabama	SEC	20.49	17.37	11.13
51	Kent St.	MAC	-0.94	3.06	11.06
52	Richmond	A10	8.29	9.2	11.02
53	Ohio St.	B10	18.87	15.78	9.6
54	USC	P12	17.01	14.45	9.33
55	Marquette	BE	16.37	14	9.26
56	Indiana	B10	17.55	14.76	9.18
57	Chattanooga	SC	12.49	11.3	8.92
58	Colgate	Pat	2.17	4.2	8.26
59	Georgia St.	SB	-1.37	1.82	8.2
60	BYU	WCC	16.77	13.8	7.86
61	Long Beach St.	BW	-1.21	1.67	7.43
62	Longwood	BSth	0.3	2.55	7.05
63	Iowa St.	B12	17.87	13.99	6.23
64	Montana St.	BSky	1.74	3.06	5.7
65	Wright St.	Horz	-4.16	-0.89	5.65
66	Norfolk St.	MEAC	-2.63	-0.13	4.87
67	Akron	MAC	1.24	2.36	4.6
68	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	9.4	7.71	4.33
69	Michigan St.	B10	20.46	14.84	3.6
70	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.45	2.06	3.28
71	Delaware	CAA	2.24	2.34	2.54
72	Bryant	NEC	-2.68	-0.99	2.39
73	Yale	Ivy	2	1.77	1.31
74	Xavier	BE	18.71	12.87	1.19
75	Jacksonville St.	ASun	5.3	2.27	-3.79
76	Northern Colorado	BSky	-2.17	-2.79	-4.03
77	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-7.49	-6.68	-5.06
78	Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-10.34	-8.73	-5.51
79	Texas Southern	SWAC	-0.41	-2.23	-5.87

March Madness 5: Teams with the Experience Guards to Pull Upsets

 As of March 12 at 9 p.m., a total of 80 teams could still make the tournament either by being selected for winning their conference championship game. Nothing can be more important to an upset bid then good, experienced guards. This is where a Mid-Major can sneak up and stun a more experienced younger team.

To get a mathematical measurement, we take the www.valueaddbasketball.com ranking of each senior guard on each team then take half of the value of each junior guard on the same team to get a total. Of the 80 teams, 22 do not have any junior or senior guards with value so those teams are a zero in these rankings.

The top 3 teams in the tournament based on this metrix are:

1. Villanova looks like the national champion based on this criteria, with a senior point guard Collin Gillespie ranking as the 8th best player in the country (10.15), with junior guard Justin Moore in the top 2% of all players (we include half of his 7.59 in this ranking, and senior guard Brandon Slater in the top 3% of all players (6.73). They won the Big East title today.

2. Illinois star is center Kofi Cockburn, but their next three most valuable players are all senior guards - Trent Frazier (top 2% at 7.30), Alfonso Plummer (top 4%, 6.10) and Jacob Grandison (top 7%, 5.21).

3. Vermont. After watching Vermont's senior guards dominant UMBC 82-43 in the American East title game today, we must wonder if that conference has another big upset brewing. It has been years since Vermont sunned Syracuse in the opening round, but only a few years since their victim today, UMBC, became the first 16-seed to beat a 1-seed with a 74-54 win over a UVA team that went onto win the title the next year.

Our all-time Value Add Basketball rankings indicate senior guard Ben Shungu is the fourth Vermont player to rank in the top 2% of all players, with the first one being the senior Value Add All-American Taylor Coppenrath who scored 16 points in that 60-57 win against Syraucse in 2005. 

Here is how the rest of the team's rank based on good, experienced guards.

Rnk	Best Experienced Guards	Adj Value Add
1	Villanova	25.93
2	Illinois	21.89
3	Vermont	19.26
4	Texas Tech	18.10
5	Texas	18.04
6	UCLA	17.58
7	Seton Hall	17.08
8	San Francisco	16.63
9	Wyoming	15.64
10	SMU	15.40
11	Houston	15.34
12	Connecticut	15.31
13	Gonzaga	15.14
14	Alabama	14.98
15	Oklahoma	14.95
16	Richmond	14.86
17	BYU	14.83
18	Wake Forest	14.64
19	Kansas	13.66
20	UAB	13.59
21	Michigan	12.99
22	Northern Colorado	12.91
23	Providence	12.59
24	Kentucky	11.49
25	Arkansas	11.48
26	Memphis	11.29
27	Baylor	10.42
28	Davidson	10.33
29	Princeton	10.30
30	Purdue	10.00
31	Colgate	9.48
32	Xavier	9.32
33	TCU	9.21
34	Longwood	9.10
35	Rutgers	9.02
36	Iowa	8.52
37	Yale	8.13
38	Marquette	7.95
39	Wisconsin	7.77
40	USC	7.49
41	Bryant	6.67
42	Virginia Tech	6.54
43	Duke	6.09
44	Delaware	5.60
45	Louisiana Tech	5.30
46	Tennessee	5.23
47	Chattanooga	5.19
48	Creighton	5.06
49	Texas A&M	4.95
50	Indiana	4.77
51	Notre Dame	4.38
52	North Carolina	4.21
53	Auburn	4.07
54	Arizona	3.24
55	Southeastern Louisiana	2.92
56	LSU	2.81
57	Akron	2.64
58	Texas Southern	2.44
59	Boise State	0.00
60	Cal State Fullerton	0.00
61	Colorado State	0.00
62	Georgia State	0.00
63	Iowa State	0.00
64	Jacksonville State	0.00
65	Kent State	0.00
66	Long Beach State	0.00
67	Loyola-Chicago	0.00
68	Miami (FLA.)	0.00
69	Michigan State	0.00
70	Montana State	0.00
71	Murray State	0.00
72	New Mexico State	0.00
73	Norfolk State	0.00
74	Ohio State	0.00
75	San Diego State	0.00
76	South Dakota State	0.00
77	St. Mary's (CA)	0.00
78	St. Peter's	0.00
79	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	0.00
80	Wright State	0.00

March Madness 4: Which Teams Hurt by Injuries or Helped by Returning Player

After Ohio State was listed as a +4 point favorite against a Michigan team in controversy, we noted in this blog that Michigan should actually be a 4 point favorite once adjusting for the www.valueaddbasketball.com. As we expected, Michigan won by 6.

A big factor in tournament games is not only injuries, but also if a team is actually better than their team ratings indicated because a key player missed some games. The following are the teams are actually better than their ranking at www.kenpom.com represents as long as the player listed takes the court. 

For example, Kofi Cockburn's Value Add is 8.04, but he just played 26 of 31 games so his Value Add per game played is actually 1.3 points better at 9.34. That means the +19.56 rating Illinois has at www.kenpom.com would project to a 20.86 with Cockburn on the court for March Madness which would make them the 15th best team in the country.

On the flip side, Wyoming hopes to sneak into the tournament, and if do make sure Hunter Maldanado is playing. The bottom of the chart indicates which recently injured players would hurt their team the most if out - and Maldanado was questionable a few games ago and his loss would make Wyoming -9.36 points worst. That would drop their www.kenpom.com rating from a 13.06 for 58th best in the country, to a 3.70 and the 126th best in the country.

To check on any player, click on College Basketball Injuries to make sure a key player is available.

Big factor is how health a team is.

Improves by	Player missed games	Team	VA	G	Team G
2.23	Marcus Sasser	Houston	3.56	12	32
2.14	Bryce Aiken	Seton Hall	4.27	15	30
1.92	Andre Kelly	California	5.59	21	32
1.89	Khalif Battle	Temple	2.52	7	28
1.54	Javon Freeman-Liberty	DePaul	6.83	24	31
1.47	LJ Cryer	Baylor	3.62	19	32
1.45	Tolu Smith	Mississippi St.	3.69	20	33
1.4	Eliel Nsoseme	Georgia St.	4.37	17	25
1.35	Malik Osborne	Florida St.	2.99	17	31
1.31	Jesse Edwards	Syracuse	4.81	24	33
1.3	Kofi Cockburn	Illinois	8.04	26	31
1.25	Colin Castleton	Florida	6.68	26	32
1.21	Adrian Baldwin	VCU	4.54	22	30
1.18	Josip Vrankic	Santa Clara	4.72	24	32
1.15	Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua	Baylor	5.27	25	32
1.12	Terrence Shannon	Texas Tech	3.37	22	33
1.1	DeAndre Williams	Memphis	4.54	22	29
1.1	Kevin McCullar	Texas Tech	4.54	25	33
1.08	Jarkel Joiner	Mississippi	3.44	22	32
1.05	Dawson Garcia	North Carolina	2.09	16	32
1.02	Jaylen Clark	UCLA	5.29	25	31
0.95	Marquise Kennedy	Loyola Chicago	3.27	22	31
0.91	Foster Loyer	Davidson	6.81	26	30
0.91	Sam Griesel	North Dakota St.	4.68	25	31
0.91	Olivier Nkamhoua	Tennessee	3.13	22	31
0.9	Branden Carlson	Utah	3.98	24	31
0.88	Noel Coleman	Hawaii	2.86	18	26
0.87	Josh LeBlanc	UAB	2.26	19	31
0.86	Dameane Douglas	Loyola Marymount	1.6	13	28
0.85	Anthony Polite	Florida St.	3.77	24	31
0.82	Tre Mitchell	Texas	3.28	24	32
0.8	Johnny Juzang	UCLA	4.94	26	31
0.78	Silvio De Sousa	Chattanooga	3.56	25	32
0.77	Markquis Nowell	Kansas St.	5.97	27	31
0.76	Josh Jefferson	Middle Tennessee	5.88	27	31
0.76	Tyrese Martin	Connecticut	6.09	28	32
0.75	Ryan Davis	Vermont	5.85	27	31
0.74	Jalen Duren	Memphis	5.4	25	29
0.74	Hunter Tyson	Clemson	3.39	25	32
0.73	Sy Chatman	Illinois St.	1.74	18	31
0.72	Hall Elisias	Bryant	3.09	23	30
0.71	Duke Miles	Troy	1.81	17	28
0.7	Ray'Sean Taylor	SIU Edwardsville	1.9	19	30
0.7	Kevion Nolan	Jacksonville	6.05	23	26
0.69	Cody Riley	UCLA	2.37	22	31
0.68	Bernardo Da Silva	Hawaii	3.56	21	26
0.67	Jared Bynum	Providence	4.99	26	30
0.67	Damari Monsanto	Wake Forest	1.19	14	32
0.66	Jalen Cook	Tulane	4.59	24	28
0.66	Souley Boum	UTEP	6.59	27	30
inj -1.25	RJ Melendez	Illinois	1.6	21	31
if inj -1.5	PJ Hall	Clemson	4.5	30	30
if inj -1.53	Darnell Rogers	UMBC	1.4	28	28
inj -1.57	Cam'Ron Fletcher	Florida St.	1.62	29	29
if inj -2.29	Jamaine Mann	Vanderbilt	2.17	24	33
if inj -2.35	Warith Alatishe	Oregon St.	1.55	28	28
inj -2.46	Caleb Mills	Florida St.	2.69	26	31
if inj -2.76	Keondre Kennedy	UMBC	2.07	29	29
if inj -2.85	Jeremiah Williams	Temple	2.44	22	28
inj -2.9	Hunter Marks	Hartford	2.4	20	20
if inj -2.99	Steven Ashworth	Utah St.	3.87	31	31
inj -3.47	Brandon Mahan	UCF	3.33	25	30
if inj -3.87	Zed Key	Ohio St.	3.2	27	30
if inj -4.62	Kyle Young	Ohio St.	3.73	25	30
if inj -5.23	Jacob Grandison	Illinois	4.96	28	31
if inj - 5.74	Vince Williams	VCU	7.69	28	30
if inj -5.79	Brandon Newman	Purdue	1.39	21	21
if inj -9.36	Hunter Maldonado	Wyoming	8.81	32	32