Showing posts with label Mountain West Conference. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mountain West Conference. Show all posts

Monday, January 1, 2024

Self's Tulsa Plays Like Kansas in 10th Biggest Blowout

Bill Self's breakthrough season was this Tulsa team that finished #7 in www.kenpom.com including a run to the Elite 8 through a previous No. 1 Cincinnati and a near upset of UNC in the Elite 8. Tulsa has never finished in the top 40 since, as Self then went to Illinois for three dominant seasons and then Kansas for national championships. Self reached No. 7 and the Elite 8 with this team despite not having a single future NBA player.

Tulsa was the second team in a row in our current tournament of 16 new teams to produce one of the biggest 10 blowouts in the history of our Value Add Basketball Game - both by teams now in the American Athletic Conference. In the 245th all-time great men's team game we ever played, Cornbread Maxwell led Charlotte to a 95-68 win over New Mexico for a 27-point margin that was our 10th biggest blowout ever in the game.

They stayed in the top 10 for only one game, as Tulsa's 92-64 win over Washington State topped the margin by one point as the 10th biggest blowout in the history of our game.
 
Margin  All-time great teams                                                Score All MargOpponent  Yr
1Houston - 2021 - Grimes - B121025052Princeton2023
2Connecticut - 2023 - Sanogo - BE773938St. Peter's2022
3Villanova - 2018 - Bridges - BE1067234Creighton2020
4Gonzaga - 2017 - Williams-Goss - WCC814833UCLA2006
5Virginia - 2019 - Guy - ACC976433Maryland2002
6Duke - 2010 - Scheyer - ACC895732Wake For2005
7Kansas - 2008 - Chalmers - B12835231St. Joe's2004
8Memphis - 2008 - Rose - Amer825230Louisville1980
9Villanova - 2018 - Bridges - BE896029Butler2010
10Tulsa - 2000 - Shelton - Amer926428Wash St.2008
11Charlotte - 1977 - "Cornbread" Maxwell - Amer956827New Mex2019

The two performances pushed both teams slightly ahead of Memphis among all our American Athletic teams, at 33rd and 38th in our standings based partly on the cards but also on the results of game so far. We track all results and ratings on this google sheet. These are just the six teams who will be in the American Athletic out of our 200 great teams.
 
Rnk  American Athletic           Year   Player       W  L  Score  Allow  SOS
33Tulsa2000Shelton1092.064.0-9.0
38Charlotte1977Maxwell1095.068.0-3.0
44Memphis2008Rose4268.765.8-0.3
73Temple1958Rodgers00NGNGNG
140Wichita St.2013VanVleet1264.371.31.7
179Florida Atlantic2023Davis0164.077.0-2.0

Here is the box score from Tulsa's blowout win.
 
Pos       Washington St. 2008     Pts 3pt 2pt FT Att Reb Stl BlkFl  Season Actual         
1-PGTaylor Rochestie6200021056'1,10.4 ppg
2-SGDerrick Low16331211016'2,14.1 ppg
3-SFKyle Weaver13142460036'6,12.2 ppg,NBA
4-PFRobbie Cowgill10050140126'10,7.3 ppg
5-CAron Baynes7201240136'10,10.4 ppg,NBA
1-PGThomas Abercrombie0000010016'6,1.2 ppg
2-SGStephen Sauls2010010016'3,2.1 ppg
3-SFDaven Harmeling6030010036'7,5.6 ppg
4-PFCaleb Forrest2010010016'8,3.4 ppg
5-CNikola Koprivica2010010016'7,2.5 ppg
 14 Turnovers6481849222221 
            
            
PosTulsa 2000Pts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlSeason Actual
1-PGMarcus Hill19245632016'5,11.2 ppg
2-SGGreg Harrington11051241046'2,10.8 ppg
3-SFDavid Shelton16145560016'6,13.5 ppg
4-PFEric Coley14143362116'5,11.3 ppg
5-CBrandon Kurtz10034470136'10,11.2 ppg
1-PGTony Heard8032210116'0,9.7 ppg
2-SGDante Swanson8040040035'10,5.5 ppg
3-SFAntonio Reed2010010015'10,1.8 ppg
4-PFKevin Johnson2010010016'7,2.4 ppg
5-CCharlie Davis2010010016'7,2.5 ppg
 6 Turnovers924302022345317

On the flip side, the blowout loss plunged Washington State to the bottom of our combined Pac-12/MWC conference. Oregon State's earlier win against James Madison moved them up to within one spot of the top of the new combined conference, just behind UNLV's dominant 1991 team.

Rnk   P12/MWC         Year   Player     W  L  Score  Allow   SOS
41UNLV1991Johnson1272.776.30.7
42Oregon St.1982Green1081.068.0-12.0
103San Diego St.2011Leonard2269.371.8-0.3
126UNLV1987Gilliam0164.082.0-6.0
138Nevada2004Fazekas00NGNGNG
168Wyoming1943Sailors0160.073.01.0
174San Diego St.2023LeDee0178.084.0-1.0
193New Mexico1974Hardin0168.095.0-3.0
196Washington St.2008Weaver0192.064.00.0


Here is the actual scoresheet with Tulsa dominating from the outset.





Thursday, November 23, 2023

Mountain West Perhaps Merge with Pac-12 and Return of Value Add Basketball Rankings

All-Mountain West           Team               Value   AdjO  AdjD   Notes
Steven AshworthUtah St.10.72127.798.910-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
Jaedon LeDeeSan Diego St.8.17111.590.45-seed, 32-7, Poss 24.5%
Jaelen HouseNew Mexico7.59114102.522-12 (PG), Poss 26.9%
Isaiah StevensColorado St.6.13111.9106.115-18 (PG), Poss 28.1%
EJ HarklessUNLV6.03104.399.719-13 (PG), Poss 33.2%
HM-Mountain West ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Camden Vander ZwaagAir Force5.84121.5104.514-18, Poss 16.7%
Marcus ShaverBoise St.5.7499.895.110-seed, 24-10 (PG), Poss 26.3%
Patrick CartierColorado St.5.52116.3106.115-18, Poss 24.7%
Omari MooreSan Jose St.5.08110102.621-14, Poss 28.1%

From the rubble of the disasterous Pac-12 decision to treat revenue sustaining football and basketball as any more important than the Olympic sports they sustain, the one intriguing proposal making the rounds was the Pac-12 partnering to set up a "relegation" system with other conferences. The idea would be to follow the soccer model of having teams in the highest conference (presumably the Pac-12) play and each year the bottom couple drop to a lower conference and the top couple from the lower conference move up to the Pac-12 for the next season.

This is pure speculation, but with Washington State and Oregon State having pure control of all Pac-12 decisions as the only remaining members for next season, if others would agree it seems adding Gonzaga and Saint Mary's and then the four Missouri Conference NCAA tournament teams to a Pac-12 would be a very exciting eight for basketball (we are not pondering football here). The would leave seven in the MWC, add an eighth like maybe UC Irvine, play a season and start the relegation and advancement. Sounds easier on the back of a napkin then the logistics that it would entail, but with the Mountain West headlines for the unheard of four bids they seem like the non-Power Conference bell of the ball right now.

Above is a very late All-Mountain West Conference team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

Note from below that Steven Ashworth was not only our MVP of the conference, but an also an all-American, but has transferred to Creighton for this season.

Team                   2023       2024      2025    Seed23   Rnk24
Air ForceMWCMWCMWC 194
Boise St.MWCMWCMWC1081
Colorado St.MWCMWCMWC 26
Fresno St.MWCMWCMWC 155
NevadaMWCMWCMWC1144
New MexicoMWCMWCMWC 52
San Diego St.MWCMWCMWC520
San Jose St.MWCMWCMWC 121
UNLVMWCMWCMWC 125
Utah St.MWCMWCMWC1060
WyomingMWCMWCMWC 177

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season
 
The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony DavisJon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 
All-American 1st Team    Team               Value    AdjO  AdjDNotes                                                
Zach EdeyPurdue13.17125.994.51-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)Connecticut11.37122.690.94-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)Houston11.25123.490.41-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan KalkbrennerCreighton10.80133.493.26-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)Utah St.10.72127.798.910-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Tylor Perry (K-State)North Texas10.37124.394.131-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)Alabama10.23117.088.21-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)Akron9.94121.9103.422-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan RobertsHouston9.90127.990.41-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)Connecticut9.88121.290.94-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)UCLA9.80113.1882-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)Penn St.9.66118.7101.110-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)UAB9.64114.797.929-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler KolekMarquette9.6311896.72-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago VescoviTennessee9.52114.287.54-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Max Abmas (Texas)Oral Roberts9.47120.2102.212-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)Indiana9.45118.597.24-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan YoungDuke9.37128.793.95-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)Memphis9.24111.196.18-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)Gonzaga9.21119.699.33-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Markquis Nowell (gone)Kansas St.8.92111953-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)Xavier8.87119.298.63-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)Kentucky8.83122.698.86-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)Louisiana8.74131.2102.913-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)Liberty8.68114.597.527-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Azuolas TubelisArizona8.68116.196.32-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)Rutgers8.66119.490.819-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)Texas8.66116.392.12-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe ColesTCU8.64118.494.36-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie EllisUSC8.56113.397.510-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%

Friday, February 25, 2022

Mountain West Conference (MWC) 25 MVPs and Top Freshmen

The following are the 25 most valuable players based on their value above a typical replacement player both offensively and defensively at www.valueaddbasketball.com in the Mountain West Conference (MWC).    



Details to follow.

Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Best Power Forwards in College Basketball This Season

 In Value Add Basketball we consider the team's "power forward" the player who behind the team's "center" has some combination of the most defensive rebounds, blocked shots and height, but typically the fewest assists and steals. A great center or power forward will typically have even better raw numbers than a great point guard, because the guards typically need to get the ball to a power forward or center close to the basket for a closer shot.  (for a summary of the top players at each position, click here).

Because www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates how many points per game a player improves his team compared to if a typical replacement player took his place, the raw value add is adjusted by position since the replacement player would be at the same position. Therefore, once the formulas are run, and power forward's raw value add is lowered by multiplying it by 0.95 to get the result you see below and at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

In general, freshmen make so many mistakes (turnovers, bad shots etc.) the first half of the season that they do not rank nearly as high as more experienced players. However, they tend to improve more at the end of the season, so we watch for breakout freshmen first when looking at brackets. Therefore we start with the 10 most valuable freshmen centers in college basketball, starting with the most talented future NBA prospect, Auburn's Jabari Smith, who improves Auburn by 7.14 points per game - meaning there is a better than 50/50 chance Auburn would have LOST any game that they won by fewer than seven points. This calculations were run before Auburn's win against Vanderbilt Wednesday, during which Smith had his first 30-point game, so he is gaining value. 

In his case, he improves the Auburn offense by 4.44 points per game, while his defensive rating of -2.70 indicates he takes three to four points more away from the opposing team then a typical replacement power forward. Here are the most valuable 10 freshmen power forwards through games of February 15.

RnkTop Freshmen Power ForwardsTeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
7Jabari Smith #10Auburn7.14SEC6'10"Fr
11Paolo Banchero #5Duke6.69ACC6'10"Fr
18Justin Lewis #10Marquette6.28BE6'7"Fr
23Tyson Degenhart #2Boise St.6.13MWC6'7"Fr
27Azuolas Tubelis #10Arizona5.9P126'11"Fr
39Dillon Jones #2Weber St.5.35BSky6'6"Fr
44Sadaidriene Hall #3Stephen F. Austin5.12WAC6'5"Fr
46Aboubacar Traore #25Long Beach St.4.96BW6'5"Fr
51Jalen Wilson #10Kansas4.77B126'8"So
52Keshad Johnson #0San Diego St.4.68MWC6'7"Jr

Top Overall Power Forwards (4)

A voter would certainly be justified in placing Smith, likely the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft, as the 1st Team All-American Power Forward. However, if the entire season including early games were rated evenly, the 1st and 2nd Team All-American should really go to two Big Ten stars. Ohio State's EJ Liddell may have been the most valuable player over the course of the last two seasons, while Keegan Murray of Iowa has been able to explode now that his teammate and National Player of the Year Luka Garza has graduated.

RnkTop Freshmen Power ForwardsTeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
1Keegan Murray #15Iowa10.86B106'8"So
2EJ Liddell #32Ohio St.9.93B106'7"Jr
3Justin Bean #34Utah St.9.69MWC6'7"Sr
4Tari Eason #13LSU9.25SEC6'8"So
5David Roddy #21Colorado St.8.84MWC6'6"Jr
6Christian Braun #2Kansas7.54B126'6"Jr
7Jabari Smith #10Auburn7.14SEC6'10"Fr
8Vince Williams #10VCU6.9A106'6"Sr
9Jaime Jaquez #24UCLA6.81P126'7"Jr
10Jake LaRavia #0Wake Forest6.77ACC6'8"Jr
11Paolo Banchero #5Duke6.69ACC6'10"Fr
12Race Thompson #25Indiana6.49B106'8"Jr
13Dane Goodwin #23Notre Dame6.49ACC6'6"Jr
14Paul Atkinson #20Notre Dame6.45ACC6'9"Sr
15Timmy Allen #0Texas6.44B126'6"Sr
16Drew Timme #2Gonzaga6.41WCC6'10"Jr
17Fabian White #35Houston6.36Amer6'8"Sr
18Justin Lewis #10Marquette6.28BE6'7"Fr
19Alex Morales #2Wagner6.28NEC6'6"Sr
20Dereon Seabron #1N.C. State6.25ACC6'7"So
21Ryan Hawkins #44Creighton6.24BE6'7"Sr
22Justyn Mutts #25Virginia Tech6.17ACC6'7"Sr
23Tyson Degenhart #2Boise St.6.13MWC6'7"Fr
24Bryce Hamilton #13UNLV6.13MWC6'4"Sr
25Aher Uguak #30Loyola Chicago6.07MVC6'7"Sr
26Abu Kigab #24Boise St.5.96MWC6'7"Sr
27Azuolas Tubelis #10Arizona5.9P126'11"Fr
28Anthony Holland #25Fresno St.5.9MWC6'5"Jr
29Collin Welp #40UC Irvine5.88BW6'9"Sr
30Ron Harper #24Rutgers5.81B106'6"Sr
31Jeriah Horne #41Tulsa5.81Amer6'7"Sr
32Keshawn Justice #14Santa Clara5.76WCC6'7"Sr
33Jalen Hill #1Oklahoma5.62B126'6"Jr
34Anton Watson #22Gonzaga5.6WCC6'8"Jr
35Jayden Gardner #1Virginia5.6ACC6'6"Sr
36Noah Horchler #14Providence5.59BE6'8"Sr
37Marcus Weathers #50SMU5.49Amer6'5"Sr
38Ben Vander Plas #5Ohio5.46MAC6'8"Sr
39Dillon Jones #2Weber St.5.35BSky6'6"Fr
40Taylor Funk #33Saint Joseph's5.28A106'8"Sr
41Brady Manek #45North Carolina5.27ACC6'9"Sr
42Jalen Bridges #11West Virginia5.26B126'7"So
43Isaac Mushila #10Texas A&M Corpus Chris5.14Slnd6'5"Jr
44Sadaidriene Hall #3Stephen F. Austin5.12WAC6'5"Fr
45Jermaine Samuels #23Villanova5.08BE6'7"Sr
46Aboubacar Traore #25Long Beach St.4.96BW6'5"Fr
47Julian Champagnie #2St. John's4.93BE6'8"Jr
48Jabari Walker #12Colorado4.89P126'9"So
49Kris Murray #24Iowa4.8B106'8"So
50Jalen Adaway #33St. Bonaventure4.79A106'5"Sr


Sunday, December 26, 2021

Mountain West Conference Top 15 Men’s Basketball Players To Date

 For Immediate Release

John Pudner, 404.606.3163, johnp@takebackaction.org


Mountain West Conference Top 15 Men’s Basketball Players To Date


“Value Add Basketball is happy to provide the early list of the conferences top 15 men’s  basketball players based on proven analytics used by NBA teams for draft prep,as well as writers at Sports Illustrated, ESPN, NBC Sports, Fox Sports,” said John Pudner, the inventor of the system.”


“Seven years ago we drew attention by tabbing Utah’s Delon Wright as the most valuable player in the country, and now we list players at two Utah Universities- BYU’s Alex Barcello and Utah State’s Justin Bean - as the top two players in the country through Christmas.”


“Fresno State’s Orlando Robinson is also performing at an All-American level, and the MWC places an impressive five players in the national top 100 (of 4,000+ players). In addition to listing the top 15 players to date, we list others with a chance at the NBA - though Boise State’s Emmanuel Akot is the only player besides Robinson that we rate as having a 50-50 shot to make the NBA.” (both bolded on list below with a 54% and 48% chance)


You can click on this google doc with information on all 4,000+ players prior to it being posted on www.valueaddbasketball.com. You can also click here for the top 100 players in the country.


Information includes each player’s chance of making the NBA, his Value Add Rating for how many points he impacts a typical game (roughly 10 points is All-American level). The key to the table is: Rank = the player's conference ranking, Value Add = how many points he improves his team over a replacement player, Class = if he is in his 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th and final year of eligibility, Ht = his height, AdjD = how many points he takes away from opponents, and NBA = his percent chance of making the NBA.


Feel free to use any information contained in these statements as wanted, and email (johnp@takebackaction.org), or text/call 404.606.3163 for any questions or additional quotes from John Pudner.



RankMWCTeamValue AddClassHtAdjDNBA
1Justin BeanUtah St.10.75Sr6'7"-3.215%
2Orlando RobinsonFresno St.8.6Jr7'0-3.6554%
3David RoddyColorado St.7.72Jr6'6"-2.631%
4Isaiah StevensColorado St.6.65Jr6'0-1.311%
5Abu KigabBoise St.6.53Sr6'7"-4.141%
6Desmond CambridgeNevada5.79Sr6'4"-1.851%
7Hunter MaldonadoWyoming5.63Sr6'7"-1.471%
8Warren WashingtonNevada5.47Jr7'0-2.021%
9Matt BradleySan Diego St.5.16Sr6'4"-1.955%
10AJ WalkerAir Force4.7Sr6'2"0.211%
11Grant SherfieldNevada4.7Jr6'2"-0.4710%
12Trey PulliamSan Diego St.4.64Sr6'3"-1.991%
13Anthony HollandFresno St.4.56Jr6'5"-1.461%
14Tyson DegenhartBoise St.4.54Fr6'7"-1.141%
15Graham IkeWyoming4.46So6'9"-1.171%
NBANathan MensahSan Diego St.4.32Sr6'10"-45%
NBAKeshad JohnsonSan Diego St.3.61Jr6'7"-1.665%
NBAAguek AropSan Diego St.1.02Sr6'6"-0.955%
NBAEmmanuel AkotBoise St.2.27Sr6'8"-0.1648%
NBAVictor IwuakorUNLV0Jr6'7"0.095%
NBAEoin NelsonWyoming0.22Jr6'10"0.955%