Friday, June 16, 2017

Value Add Database Updated: Freshman, Returning Players, JUCOs, Transfers & NBA Bound

The following is a comprehensive review of Value Add broken into; 1) SIMPLE. those who just want to look up values of past and future players, 2) UNDERSTAND HOW. those who want to track players, and 3) TECHNICAL. those who want to take a critical review of the technical accuracy of the season.

SIMPLE - Click to find players

A June 2017 update to the database yielded 61,019 player seasons and 3,706 projections for how good players will be in the upcoming season.

UNDERSTANDING - 5 Phases of Players' Careers

The process for projecting the Value Add for all returning players and looking at those who make the NBA is broken into the following give posts to cover the five potential phases of each player’s college basketball career:

Value Add Group 1: Top 2017-18 Freshmen and How Many Points Each is Worth
Value Add Group 2: Top Returning Sophomores, Juniors andSeniors
Value Add Group 3: Top-ranked Transfers
Value Add Group 4: Top JUCO Transfers: Projected Value for 2018, and Best Since 2011

Value Add Group 5: NBA Prospects for Thursday's Draft

TECHNICAL - Are Value Add Basketball Rankings the same as WAR 

Value Add is a formula developed to determine how many points each player is worth to his team – or in other words how many points his team’s margin of victory or defeat would change if he was replaced by a standard replacement player. Major media outlets writing about Value Add Basketball compare it to baseball’s WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which is very accurate with a few differences:

a.       a. Value Add determines how many POINTS per game a player is worth, rather than WINS. A team with an All-American with a 10.00 Value Add who won a game by six points, would be expected to lose that game by four points without the All-American and his 10.00 Value Add.  

a.      The sixth through ninth best player on an average team would each have a Value Add of between 0.00 and 1.00, so the Value Add is based on that level of players taking the place of the player in question.

b.      A strong team with better replacements will not be hurt as much – and the actual impact on their team will be close to the Value Add of the player in question MINUS the Value Add of the seventh best player on the team. (e.g. if the seventh best player on the team that lost the All-American (with a Value Add of 10.00) had a Value Add of 3.00, then the team would actually be hurt by 7 points a game (10.00 minus 7.00) rather than the full impact of 10 points the All-American would have on a lesser team.

WAR assumes the player is replaced by a specific player (e.g. a shortstop is replaced by a shortstop both in the line-up and at the plate. The lost value actually results from the Domino effect of a series of players having to handle the ball more (each less efficient than the missing player due to more defensive attention and less rest in the game).

Value Add Group 3: Top-ranked Transfers

The third group of players we project are transfers - really a subset of Group 2 Sophomores, Juniors and Seniors, as players who shifted schools and in most case skipped a year. The projected Value Add for the coming season is calculated the same as it is done for Group 2.

Deontae Hawkins improved Boston College by seven points per game when he committed this month, after playing at Illinois State last year. You can search the front slash ( / ) in the notes field to find transfers and their past team (See "Last Played" below for the top 25 transfers this year.

Transfers traditionally sit out a year, but as you can see from Hawkins and the other "2017/" players here and in the database, that requirement is waived more and more for players who have earned a degree at their first school or can make a hardship claim. With hundreds and hundreds of players transferring now to get more playing time or move up to a tournament team, the most important man in basketball is the guy who tracks all their movements ...

... the great Jeff Goodman of ESPN (click here for his transfer list).

The Value Add Basketball Projection page lists projections for all 2018 players, but you can also search "2019" in the year field to find the players who are sitting out a season as a transfer and will next play in 2019. (Return to Main Outline here)

Over RankTransfer ProjectionsVA5keyNew TeamLast Played
52Deontae Hawkins 237.16Boston College2017/Illinois St.
64Jordan Johnson 16.91Nevada Las Vegas2016/Wisconsin Milwaukee
68Justin Bibbins 216.86Utah2016/Long Beach St.
79DeSean Murray 36.72Auburn2016/Presbyterian
80Egor Koulechov 46.72Florida2017/Rice
101Cameron Johnson 236.43Pittsburgh2017/Pittsburgh
119Henry Caruso 216.19Santa Clara2016/Princeton
124Devin Watson 16.11San Diego St.2016/San Francisco
174Dwayne Sutton 225.56Louisville2016/UNC Asheville
182Ed Stephens 15.45Austin Peay2016/South Carolina St.
186CJ Bryce 125.42North Carolina St.2017/UNC Wilmington
189Byron Hawkins 15.38Murray St.2016/Towson
203Marcel Pettway 125.27Nevada2016/Bryant
222Tim Coleman 25.15NJIT2016/NJ Inst of Technology
249Braxton Huggins 24.97Fresno St.2017/New Mexico St.
272Kory Holden 14.84South Carolina2016/Delaware
281Elijah Brown 44.77Oregon2017/New Mexico
292Devon Daniels 34.72North Carolina St.2017/Utah
299Cane Broome 14.68Cincinnati2016/Sacred Heart
303Marcus Evans 24.68Virginia Commonwealth2017/Rice
316Christian Sengfelder 434.55Boise St.2017/Fordham
317Payton Hulsey 34.54Florida International2016/College of Charleston
326Darius Thompson 514.49Western Kentucky2017/Virginia
327Terrell Allen 124.48Central Florida2016/Drexel
333AJ Turner 114.45NorthWestern2017/Boston College

Value Add Group 1: Top 2017-18 Freshmen and How Many Points Each is Worth

The first group of prospects ranked at are the freshman.

Projecting freshmen takes the least explanation. The top couple of freshmen each year average an 8.00 Value Add or better, and about 465 freshman make a contribution of at least 0.40 points per game above a replacement player. Michael Porter tops the list below, making Missouri 9.00 points better per game for his one year before going onto be a star in the NBA.

Anthony Davis' Value Add of 13.81 points per game as a freshmen makes him the greatest college player during the years in the all-time Value Add Basketball database, going back to the 2001-02 season. In the five years since Davis 2012 campaign, Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns is the only freshman worth more than 10 points per game.

Freshmen are generally overrated - turning the ball over and making defensive mistakes to offset the good plays they make. Porter is one of only 26 freshman that project in the top 300. As usually, that means less than 10 percent of the top players  this season are freshmen.

The other bad news for 350 basketball teams is that Kentucky coach John Caliprari hoarded six of those 26 star freshman

Only 262 freshman project to improve their team by at least one point a game based on

Over RankFreshmen ProjectionsTeamVA5
13Michael PorterMissouri9.00
22Mohamed BambaTexas8.50
31DeAndre AytonArizona8.00
41Collin SextonAlabama7.50
60Jaren JacksonMichigan St.7.00
61Lonnie WalkerMiami FL6.99
72Gary Trent JrDuke6.81
89Jarred VanderbiltKentucky6.56
93Kevin KnoxKentucky6.53
106Wendell CarterDuke6.33
117Nick RichardsKentucky6.20
120Mitchell RobinsonWestern Kentucky6.14
137Troy BrownOregon6.02
145Brandon McCoyNevada Las Vegas5.83
159Trevon DuvalDuke5.74
165Billy PrestonKansas5.69
166Hamidou DialloKentucky5.62
171PJ WashingtonKentucky5.59
195Brian BowenLouisville5.31
200Emmanuel AkotArizona5.28
221Kris WilkesUCLA5.16
233Jaylen HandsUCLA5.07
241Trae YoungOklahoma5.03
262Quade GreenKentucky4.90
284Malik WilliamsLouisville4.76

Value Add Group 4: Top JUCO Transfers: Projected Value for 2018, and Best Since 2011

Junior College players make their big improvements before stepping on the court of a 4-year college, usually as a junior. They can instantly improve a team because their game is so much more developed than freshman recruits. As soon as Delon Wright and Gary Payton stepped on the court they made Utah and Oregon State, respectively, 10 points better than a replacement player, and 78% of the players who made Brad Winton's list between 2011 to 2015.

More of these players had not committed to a 4-year college by mid-June, so these players give the last opportunity for teams to dramatically improve before the November tip off.

Nine teams hope Shakur Juiston is like Wright or Payton. The big winner so far is Texas Tech, which signed three JUCOs who together project improving the team by 9.42 points per game over replacement players. Every time a player with a "TBA" (to be determined) school signs, the team's projection for next season will increase by that may points.

The following list projects the Value Add the next season of each of Brad's 100 picks this season, and at the end of this piece is the ranking of Wright, Payton and the next best JUCOs between 2011 and 2015.

Rnk2018 ProjectionProjection2018 SchoolHtJUCO School
1Shakur Juiston6.50TBD6'7F Hutchinson (JUCO 2017)
2Jeremy Harris6.00Buffalo6'7SF Gulf Coast State (JUCO 2017)
3Jordan Brangers5.50Texas Tech (Three, 9.42)6'3SG South Plains (JUCO 2017)
4Tony Farmer5.00TBD6'8F Lee College (JUCO 2017)
5Antone Warren4.50TBD6'11C Antelope Valley (CA) (JUCO 2017)
6Bruce Stevens 4.01TBD6'8PF Jones County (JUCO 2017)
7DaQuan Jeffries3.82Tulsa6'7F Western Texas (JUCO 2017)
8Eden Ewing3.75Purdue6'8F Tyler (JUCO 2017)
9Semajae Haynes-Jones3.59Wichita St.6'2PG Hutchinson (JUCO 2017)
10Jared Wilson Frame3.47Pittsburgh (Two, 5.58)6'4G Northwest Florida State (JUCO 2017)
11Roderick Williams3.34UTEP6'6F East LA College (JUCO 2017)
12Shawn Olden3.19TCU (Two, 3.91)6'3SG New Mexico (JUCO 2017)
13Chris Darrington3.06TBD6'3PG Vincennes (JUCO 2017)
14D'Angelo Hunter2.94West Virginia6'6SG Navarro (JUCO 2017)
15De'Quon Lake2.82TBD6'10F Iowa Western (JUCO 2017)
16Jeromy Rodriguez2.71TBD6'8PF Northwest Florida State (JUCO 2017)
17Josh Webster 2.55Texas Tech6'5PG South Plains (JUCO 2017)
18Corey Davis2.45TBD6'1PG San Jacinto (JUCO 2017)
19Kyvon Davenport2.36TBD6'8PF Georgia Highlands (JUCO 2017)
20Gabe Grant2.20Houston (Two, 2.40)6'7SF Three Rivers (JUCO 2017)
21Troy Simmons2.11Pittsburgh6'4SG Polk State (JUCO 2017)
22Kareem Brewton 2.02TBD6'2G Eastern Florida State (JUCO 2017)
23Daryl Edwards1.95TBD6'4SG Northwest Florida State (JUCO 2017)
24Kwinton Hinson1.87Washington St.6'6SF Tyler (JUCO 2017)
25Adrian Hicks1.74TBD6'2CG Columbia State (JUCO 2017)
26Amaad Wainright1.57North Texas6'5Wing Trinity Valley (JUCO 2017)
27David Simmons1.51Middle Tennessee St.6'4SF Tallahassee (JUCO 2017)
28Devin Thomas1.43Indiana St.6'7PF Mineral Area College (JUCO 2017)
29Hyron Edwards1.36Texas Tech6'1PG Trinity Valley (JUCO 2017)
30Shannon Bogues1.33Stephen F Austin6'3SG McLennan (JUCO 2017)
31Jorden Duffy1.29TBD6'3SG San Jacinto (JUCO 2017)
32LaDarrius Chester1.26TBD6'2G Lee College (JUCO 2017)
33Michael Miller1.22TBD6'3PG Shawnee (JUCO 2017)
34Tyree Robinson1.19New Mexico St. (Two, 1.82)6'6F Odessa (JUCO 2017)
35Dinero Mercurious1.15TBD6'6SG Daytona State (JUCO 2017)
36Adarius Avery 1.14TBD6'5SF Connors State (JUCO 2017)
37Jason Burnell1.11Jacksonville St.6'7F St. Petersburg (JUCO 2017)
38Chris McNeal1.07TBD6'3PG Indian Hills (JUCO 2017)
39Davion Cole-Johnson1.06TBD6'4SG Mississippi Gulf Coast (JUCO 2017)
40Jalen Perry1.04TBD6'4Wing John A Logan (JUCO 2017)
41Zach Copeland1.00TBD6'4SG San Francisco City (CA) (JUCO 2017)
42Zac Cuthbertson1.00UNC Wilmington (Two, 1.2)6'7F Mineral Area (JUCO 2017)
43Wayne Stewart0.97TBD6'7SG Lamar  (JUCO 2017)
44Delfincko Bogan0.95TBD5'9PG Moberly Area (JUCO 2017)
45Harrison Curry0.93TBD6'7F Pensacola State (JUCO 2017)
46Reggie Scurry0.91Missouri St.6'7F Northern Oklahoma Tonkawa (JUCO 2017)
47Malik Dunbar0.89TBD6'6SF College of Central Florida (JUCO 2017)
48Raynere Thornton0.86TBD6'7F Gordon State (JUCO 2017)
49Deangelo Isby0.83Utah St. (Two, 1.39)6'5Wing Wabash Valley (JUCO 2017)
50Roberto Gallinat0.81TBD6'4SG South Plains (JUCO 2017)
51James Batemon0.79TBD6'2G North Dakota SCS (JUCO 2017)
52Eric Cobb0.77Connecticut6'10PF Chipola (JUCO 2017)
53Tope Arikawe0.74TBD6'8F/C Panola  (JUCO 2017)
54William Tinsley0.72Illinois St.6'5SG Lake Land College (JUCO 2017)
55Andre Pierce0.72TCU6'9F Lee College (JUCO 2017)
56Isaiah Bailey0.71TBD6'6Wing Angelina (JUCO 2017)
57Dajon Streeter0.70TBD6'4CG Independence (JUCO 2017)
58Montell McRae0.68TBD6'9PF South Plains (JUCO 2017)
59Jachai Simmons0.64New Mexico St.6'6Wing Midland (JUCO 2017)
60Cam Reedus0.62Arkansas Little Rock6'2PG Three Rivers (JUCO 2017)
61Eric McGill0.60TBD6'3SG Panola  (JUCO 2017)
62Dwayne Brown0.56Utah St.6'6F Northern Oklahoma Tonkawa (JUCO 2017)
63Ndene Gueye0.53St. Bonaventure6'10F/C Kilgore (JUCO 2017)
64Shawntez Davis0.50Nevada6'8PF South Plains (JUCO 2017)
65Ty Lazenby0.46TBD6'5Wing NOC - Enid (JUCO 2017)
66Leroy Buchanan0.43Murray St.6'5Wing Northeast Mississippi (JUCO 2017)
67DaJion Henderson0.39Tennessee St.6'7F Compton College (CA) (JUCO 2017)
68Jordan Taylor0.34TBD6'5SG Coffeyville (JUCO 2017)
69Raquan Mitchell0.31Colorado St.6'2SG South Plains (JUCO 2017)
70Brady Ernst0.28Xavier6'10F/C Indian Hills (JUCO 2017)
71Eddie Reese0.26TBD6'1CG Northwest Kansas Tech (JUCO 2017)
72Malik Petteway0.22TBD6'8PF Northwest Florida State (JUCO 2017)
73Roosevelt Smart0.20Arkansas St.6'4G New Mexico (JUCO 2017)
74Kani Coles0.20Central Florida6'8F Pensacola State (JUCO 2017)
75Josh Stamps0.20Florida International6'5SG Trinity Valley (JUCO 2017)
76Paul Turner0.20Green Bay6'5Wing College of Central Florida (JUCO 2017)
77Breaon Brady0.20Houston6'9F Saddleback College (CA) (JUCO 2017)
78Jaqwan McCauley0.20Morehead St.6'6Wing Tyler (JUCO 2017)
79Brandon Key0.20South Dakota St.5'10PG Southwest Tennessee (JUCO 2017)
80Jamil Jackson0.20Southern Utah6'6Wing Williston State (JUCO 2017)
81Davion Turner0.20Texas Arlington6'8F Hill (JUCO 2017)
82Josh Boutte0.20UNC Wilmington6'6F Dodge City (JUCO 2017)
83Ben Nakwaasah 0.20Utah Valley 6'1G Jacksonville (JUCO 2017)
84James Harrison0.20TBD6'7PF Blinn (JUCO 2017)
85Marlon Hunter0.20TBD6'5Wing Odessa (JUCO 2017)
86Vance Johnson0.20TBD6'9PF Northeast  (JUCO 2017)
87Deante Strickland0.20TBD5'10PG Casper (JUCO 2017)
88Diontae Champion0.20TBD6'6Wing North Platte (JUCO 2017)
89Boaz Williams0.20TBD6'7PF Collin County (JUCO 2017)
90Jonathan Sanks0.20TBD6'4SG Spartanburg Methodist (JUCO 2017)
91Dani Koljanin0.20TBD6'7F Monroe College (JUCO 2017)
92Anthony Adger0.20TBD6'1PG Spartanburg Methodist (JUCO 2017)
93Ricky Dunnaway 0.20TBD6'8F Walters State (JUCO 2017)
94Deishuan Booker0.20TBD6'3PG College of Southern Idaho (JUCO 2017)
95Dante Sterling0.20TBD6'6Wing Northwest Mississippi (JUCO 2017)
96Deion James0.20TBD6'8F Pima CC (D2) (JUCO 2017)
97Anthony Smith0.20TBD6'6F Feather River (CA) (JUCO 2017)
98Roderick Sikes0.20TBD6'1G Southwest Mississippi (JUCO 2017)
99Dante Thorpe0.20TBD6'4Wing Triton (D2) (JUCO 2017)
100Travis Weatherington0.20TBD6'3SG Palm Beach State (JUCO 2017)

Top Impact JUCO Players from 2011-2015

JUCOs Wright, Payton and Jae Crowder (12.43) improve their college teams by more than 10 points, while no other JUCO was worth more than eight points per game over a replacement player (Value Add). Crowder was a JUCO in 2010, the year before the five years covered below. This table shows only the first year each player went to a four-year college (Wright was even better his Senior season). Their final year at the JUCO level is listed, and most players values are from the following year at the 4-year college, but some were two or even three seasons later.

RnkFull nameValue Add1st 4-year collegeHtJUCPJUCO Yr
1Delon Wright12.83Utah6'5G City College of San Fran (CA)2013
2Gary Payton II10.87Oregon St.6'4G Salt Lake CC2014
3Algie Key7.98Alabama6'4G Barton CC (KS)2013
4Chris Boucher7.27Oregon6'11F Northwest College2015
5Pierre Jackson6.78Baylor5'10PG College of Southern Idaho2011
6Stefan Moody6.72Ole Miss5'11PG Kilgore2014
7Dustin Hogue5.92Iowa State6'6F Indian Hills (IA)2013
8Marshall Henderson5.91Mississippi6'2South Plains (TX)2012
9Dedrick Basile5.75Cal St. Bakersfield5'10PG Trinity Valley CC2015
10Chris Jones5.69Louisville5'11PG NW Florida State2013
11Joseph Acuil5.64Baylor6'10F Neosho CC2015
12Octavius Ellis5.64Cincinnati6'9F Trinity Valley CC2014
13Neil Watson5.4Southern Miss5'11PG Coffeyville CC (KS)2011
14Karrington Ward5.34Eastern Michigan6'6G Moriane Valley (IL)2013
15Lee Moore5.19UTEP6'4G Wallace State2015
16Jarvis Williams5.18Murray State6'8F Gordon St. College (GA)2013
17Tymel Murphy5.07FIU6'5South Plains2012
18Jameel McKay4.92Iowa State6'8PF Indian Hills (IA)2013
19Dennis Tinnon4.8Marshall6'7SF/PF Kansas City KS CC2011
20Cleanthony Early4.74Wichita State6'8Sullivan County CC (NY)2012
21Corey Walden4.72Eastern Kentucky6'2Brevard CC (FL)2012
22Ethan Telfair4.46Idaho State5'10PG Redlands College2015
23Coty Clarke4.33Arkansas6'7Lawson State CC (AL)2012
24Farad Cobb4.29Cincinnati6'2G NW Florida St.2014
25Isahiah Williams4.22Iona6'7G/F State College of FL - Manatee2013
26Chris Evans4.17Kent St.6'7SF/PF Wabash Valley College (IL)2011
27Jonathon Holton4.03West Virginia6'8F Palm Beach State (FL)2013
28Torian Graham3.99Houston6'4G Chipola2014
29Lorenzo Bonam3.93Utah6'5G Gillette College2015
30Dequan Hicks3.92Northwestern St.6'7New Mexico JC2012
31Vladimir Brodziansky3.85TCU6'10F Pratt CC2015
32Malik Dime3.84Washington6'9F Indian Hills CC2015
33Lester Medford3.83Baylor5'11PG Indian Hills2014
34Ryan Martin3.81Tennessee Tech6'9F South Plains2014
35Trashon Burrell3.79Memphis6'7SF Lee College2014
36Kevin Punter3.78Tennessee6'3SG State Fair CC2014
37Calvin Godrey3.77LSU6'8Howard College (TX)2012
38Marcos Knight3.75Middle Tennessee St.6'2SG Chipola College (FL)2011
39Stanton Kidd3.73NC Central6'5South Plains2012
40Blake Hamilton3.71Buffalo6'6G Mt. San Antonio2015
41Rod Bobbitt3.64Hawaii6'3G Indian Hills CC2014
42Julian Welch3.62Minnesota6'3PG/SG Yuba College (CA)2011
43Deckie Johnson3.58North Texas6'3G Angelina College2015
44Shevon Thompson3.57George Mason6'11F Harcum2014
45Jarmar Gulley3.56Missouri St.6'4SF Highland CC (KS)2011
46Dwayne Benjamin3.54Oregon6'7SF Mt. San Jacinto2014
47Carl Hall3.51Wichita State6'8PF/C NW Florida State College2011
48Doug Anderson3.45University of Detroit6'6SG/SF Mott CC (MI)2011
49Fredrick Edmond3.44Western Kentucky6'4G College of Southern Idaho2015
50Daveon Boardingham3.42Southern Miss6'7Seward County CC (KS)2012
51Joe Thomassen3.4Wright St.6'3PG State Fair CC2014
52Bobby Hunter3.34Illinois State6'0G Santa Fe College (FL)2013
53Shakir Brown3.33James Madison6'6F Angelina College2015
54Mike Myers3.33Southern Miss6'8Angelina College (TX)2012
55Fabyon Harris3.31Texas A & M5'10College of Southern Idaho2012
56Tyrus McGee3.28Iowa State6'2SG Cowley County CC (KS)2011
57Carlos Morris3.27Minnesota6'6SF Chipola2014
58Orlando Sanchez3.14St. John's6'9Monroe College (NY)2012
59Rob Gray3.13Houston6'1G Howard College2015
60Kyisean Reed3.13Utah St.6'7SF/PF Antelope Valley CC (FL)2011
61Chima Moneke3.11UC Davis6'7F Northeast CC2015
62Jerran Young3.1Wright State6'5McLennan CC (TX)2012
63Darius Carter3.06Wichita State6'7F Vincennes (IN)2013
64Tyler Brown3.05Illinois St.6'4SG Marshalltown CC (IA)2011
65Kadeem Allen3Arizona6'3SG Hutchinson CC2014
66Obinna Oleka2.98Arizona St6'8F State Coll of FL (Sat this season)2015
67Jeff Newberry2.96Oklahoma St.6'3PG New Mexico JC2014
68Dwayne Davis2.93Southern Miss6'6PF Midland College (TX)2011
69Teigbe Bamba2.92Portland State6'6F Midland College (TX)2013
70Trantell Knight2.9Middle Tennessee St.6'2Chipola (FL)2012
71Elgin Cook2.89Oregon6'6G/F NW FL State2013
72Cullen Russo2.85Fresno State6'9F New Mexico JC2015
73Deshawn Delaney2.79New Mexico6'5G Vincennes (IN)2013
74Avery Woodson2.79Memphis6'3G East Mississippi2014
75Fahro Alihodzic2.78UAB6'10Southeastern CC (IA)2012
76Cinmeon Bowers2.74Auburn6'7F Chipola2014
77Ty Outlaw2.73Virginia Tech6'6G Lee College2015
78Emmanuel Omogbo2.71Colorado State6'8F South Plains2015
79Jaysean Paige2.69West Virginia6'2G Moberly Area CC2014
80Rayanthony Sanders2.68Albany6'4G Pensacola JC2014
81Shavon Coleman2.62LSU6'6Howard College (TX)2012
82Derrick Barden2.61Northern Colorado6'5Odessa JC (TX)2012
83Devin Brooks2.53Creighton6'2G Iowa Western2013
84Sam Grooms2.52Oklahoma6'1PG Chipola College (FL)2011
85Bryce Jones2.49Murray St6'1PG Jones County JC2015
86Walter Wright2.47Montana5'10PG Snow College2015
87Pat Birt2.46Tulsa6'5G South Plains2015
88James Milliken2.45Creighton6'2G Cowley County CC (KS)2013
89Earvin Morris2.45UTEP6'4G Tallahassee CC2014
90Gian Clavell2.44Colorado State6'3G NW Kansas Tech2014
91Jusitn Roberson2.43Louisiana Monroe6'1PG Western Texas2014
92Jonathon Williams2.43Wagner6'6SF City College of San Francisco (CA)2011
93Jerrold Brooks2.41Southern Miss6'2Casper College (WY)2012
94Leslee Smith2.29Nebraska6'8F Seward CC (KS)2013
95Omar Strong2.26Texas Southern5'9PG Cecil CC (MD)2011
96Devon Baulkman2.22Tennessee6'3G Gulf Coast St.2014
97Raymond Cintron2.21Middle Tennessee St.6'0SG Mississippi Gulf Coast CC2011
98Jestin Lewis2.2Mercer6'1PG Wallace St.2014
99Elijah Pittman2.2Marhsall6'8Lamar State Port Arthur (TX)2012
100Geron Johnson2.19Memphis6'4Garden City CC (KS)2012
101Dre Mathieu2.17Minnesota5'8G Central Arizona2013
102Jarekious Bradley2.13Western Kentucky6'5G/F East Mississippi2013
103Titus Rubles2.13Cincinnatti6'8Blinn College (TX)2012
104CJ Washington2.07UAB6'8F Tallahassee CC (FL)2013
105Tarik Phillip2.05West Virginia6'3SG Independence CC2014
106God's Gift Achiuwa2.03St. John's6'8PF Erie CC (NY)2011
107Ronnie Boyce2.02San Francisco6'4G Connors State2015
108Ty Nurse2.02Texas Tech6'1PG Midland College (TX)2011
109Kruize Pinkins2.02San Francisco6'7F Chipola (FL)2013
110Devnota Pollard2.01Houston6'8F East Mississippi2014
111Rasheed Brooks2Ole Miss6'5G SW Tennessee CC2015
112Wayne Martin1.97Tenn State6'7F Navarro College2015
113Brandon Walters1.94Middle Tenesse St6'10F Walters State2015
114James Kelly1.93Miami (FL)6'8F Owens CC (OH)2013
115Garrett Nevels1.92Hawaii6'3G Mt. San Antonio (CA)2013
116Chris Reyes1.89Utah6'7F Citrus CC2014
117Kiel Turpin1.89Florida St.6'11C Lincoln CC (IL)2011
118Carlos Emory1.87Oregon6'6SF Howard College (TX)2011
119James Walker1.86St. Mary's6'3Citrus College (CA)2012
120Perrin Buford1.85Middle Tennessee St.6'7G SW Tennessee CC2014
121Gerry Blakes1.82Arizona St.6'3PG San Bernardino CC2014
122Josh Gray1.8LSU6'0PG Odessa JC2014
123Anthony Downing1.73Missouri St.6'1PG Independence CC (KS)2011
124Justin Leon1.71Florida6'8F Shawnee CC2015
125Tyshon Pickett1.63Bradley6'6Dodge City CC (KS)2012
126Jordan Washington1.63Iona6'8F Indian Hills CC2015
127Kerry Carter1.59St. Mary's6'2G Citrus JC (CA)2013
128Torren Jones1.59Fresno State6'9F Midland College2015
129Nurideen Lindsey1.53St. John's6'4PG Redlands CC (KS)2011
130Mike Rodriguez1.53Southern Illinois5'10PG Marshalltown CC2015
131Moussa Gueye1.52Alabama7'0C Lake Land College (IL)2011
132Du'Vuaghn Maxwell1.52Hampton6'7Western Nebraska CC2012
133Donte Thomas1.52Arkansas State6'4PG San Jacinto2015
134Michael Hale1.5UT-San Antonio5'9PG North Idaho College2011
135Kedar Edwards1.49Tennessee Martin6'5SF State Fair CC2014
136Philip Jurick1.46Oklahoma State6'11C Chattanooga St. (TN)2011
137Malique Trent1.46TCU6'2G New Mexico JC2015
138Richard Amardi1.43Oregon6'8F Indian Hills (IA)2013
139Darnell Harris1.41Middle Tennessee St.6'8F NW Florida St.2014
140Mike Anderson1.4Washington6'5G Moberly Area CC (MO)2013
141Demetrious Floyd1.4Stephen F. Austin6'1SG Chipola2014
142DeShawn Stephens1.36San Diego St.6'8SF/PF Santa Monica College (CA)2011
143Joel Wright1.36Texas State6'7Blinn College (TX)2012
144Matt Hunter1.35Central Conn. State6'6Odessa JC (TX)2012
145Marcus Lewis1.35Eastern Kentucky6'5South Suburban (IL)2012
146Quinton Upshur1.35Northern Arizona6'5G Kilgore College (TX)2013
147Dylan Talley1.34Nebraska6'5SG/SF Blinn College (TX)2011
148Dawon Cummings1.32Indiana State6'3Coffeyville CC (KS)2012
149Colin Borchert1.31Mississippi St.6'8East Mississippi2012
150Shane Rector1.31Utah State6'2PG Miami Dade2015
151Daishon Knight1.3Illinois State6'0G Odessa College2013
152Devonta Walker1.3Louisiana Lafayette6'7F Western Texas2014
153Dinjyl Walker1.3Oklahoma6'2G Iowa Western CC2014
154Remi Dibo1.29West Virginia6'9F Casper College (WY)2013
155Neiko Hunter1.28Middle Tennessee State6'7NW Florida State2012
156Maurice Ndour1.28Ohio6'8F Monroe College (NY)2013
157Kevin Foster1.27Fresno St.6'8PF College of Central Florida2011
158Joe Mitchell1.26Ohio University6'2SG Hutchinson CC (KS)2011
159Kenny Buckner1.25Boise St.6'9PF College of Southern Idaho2011
160Iakeem Alston1.22St. Bonaventure6'2G Sheridan2014
161Spencer Coleman1.22Montana6'6Eastern Arizona2012
162Darren Goodson1.22Kent State6'5Pensacola JC (FL)2012
163Brenton Williams1.22South Carolina6'1PG Santa Fe CC (FL)2011
164Tony Criswell1.21Missouri6'9Independence CC (KS)2012
165Xavier Munford1.21Rhode Island6'1Iowa Western CC2012
166Yanick Moreira1.2SMU6'11C South Plains (TX)2013
167Conor Clifford1.19Washington State7'0C Saddleback College2015
168Shane Henry1.19Virginia Tech6'8F Georgia Perimeter2014
169Nick Wiggins1.18Wichita State6'6Wabash Valley (IL)2012
170Kadeem Coleby1.17UL Lafayette6'10C Daytona State College (FL)2011
171Rod Rucker1.17UAB6'6NW Florida State2012
172DJ Shelton1.16Washington St.6'9PF/C Citrus College (CA)2011
173Aaron Moore1.15Portland State6'8San Bernardino Valley JC2012
174Tyrone Criswell1.14Nevada6'4F Central CC2014
175Marsell Holden1.14Morehead State5'11PG San Jacinto CC (TX)2011
176Jamal Jones1.14Texas A & M6'8G Lee College (TX)2013
177De'End Parker1.14UCLA6'5PG/SG City College of San Francisco (CA)2011
178Ahmad Walker1.14Stony Brook6'4G Barton County CC2015
179DJ Bennett1.13Oklahoma6'9Indian Hills CC (IA)2012
180Ashauhn Dixon-Tatum1.13Auburn6'10Chattahoochee Tech (GA)2012
181Kader Tapsoba1.13Texas Tech6'10C Tyler Junior College (TX)2011
182Anthony Hubbard1.12Iowa6'5SF Frederick CC (MD)2011
183Ude Ifeanyichukwu1.11Southern Miss6'9F Laramie County CC (WY)2013
184Blake Nash1.09South Florida6'0PG Williston State College (ND)2011
185Correante Deberry1.08Cincinnati6'9F Hutchinson CC2014
186Skyler Halford1.08BYU6'2G Salt Lake CC2013
187Steve Thornton1.08Cal State Northridge6'5G Citrus College (CA)2013
188Cavon Baker1.07Houston6'2PF Lee College2014
189Devin Foster1.07Penn State6'2G Vincennes2014
190Dwight Miller1.07Tennessee6'8PF Midland College (TX)2011
191D'Vonne Pickett1.07Seattle U6'0Central Arizona2012
192Waverly Austin1.06Oregon6'11Palm Beach State (FL)2012
193Trivante Bloodman1.06Mississippi St.6'0Olney Central CC (IL)2012
194TJ Dunans1.06Auburn6'6SG/SF Columbia State CC2015
195Eugene McCrory1.06UCF6'8F College of Central Florida2013
196Robert Goff1.05Marshall6'9PF Hutchinson CC (KS)2011
197Billy Reader1.05Morehead St.6'9F College of South Idaho2013
198Stacey Wilson1.05Murray St.6'3SG/SF Coffeyville CC (KS)2011
199Drimir Ferguson1.03NC Central5'11Monroe College (NY)2012
200Desmond Lee1.02NC State6'4G New Mexico JC2013
201Montigo Alford1Boise State5'9G Southern Idaho2014
202Sam Cassell Jr.1UConn6'3PG Chipola2014
203Bishop Daniels1Rutgers6'3G ASA2014
204Trey Dickerson1Iowa6'1PG Williston St.2014
205Jabril Durham1Arkansas6'1G Seminole CC2014
206Justin Edmonds1Marshall6'4G Owens CC (OH)2013
207Chris Hawkins1Memphis6'5F SW Tennessee CC2014
208Aaron Simpson1DePaul6'0G Lincoln College2014
209Rashaun Stimage1DePaul6'8F Daytona St2014
210Dayshawn Watkins1Florida State6'0G Holmes CC2014
211Earl Watson1Rhode Island6'8F Chipola (FL)2013
212Matt Glover0.98Penn St.6'4SG Sheridan College (WY)2011
213Renan Lenz0.97Utah6'9Arizona Western2012
214Eric Weary0.97Houston6'5G Howard Coll (TX)2014
215Olalekan Ajayi0.95Eastern Michigan6'10C Collin County (TX)2013
216D.J. Evans0.95Albany5'10East Mississippi2012
217Jalen Jackson0.95UALR6'6F NW Florida St2015
218Guy Landry0.95Gonzaga6'5SF Midland College (TX)2011
219Antonio Robinson0.95East Carolina6'4G Louisburg (NC)2013
220Deville Smith0.95UNLV6'0G SW Mississippi2013
221D.D. Scarver0.94Marhsall6'4Trinity Valley CC (TX)2012
222Javonte Douglas0.93Old Dominion6'7SF Central Florida2014
223TJ Taylor0.93UC Santa Barbara6'4Paris JC (TX)2012
224James Blasczyk0.92USC7'1C Lee College (TX)2011
225Deverell Biggs0.91Nebraska6'0Seward County CC (KS)2012
226Andell Cumberbatch0.91St. Bonaventure6'5G Barton County CC2013
227Jeremiah Ingram0.91NC Central6'7SF Colby CC2014
228Brandon Spearman0.91Hawaii6'3Indian Hills CC (IA)2012
229Richard Carter0.9Drake6'0Cloud County (KS)2012
230Jonathan Fairell0.9Murray State6'6F Indian River CC (FL)2013
231Cameron Forte0.9Georgia6'6G/F Howard College (TX)2013
232Hunter Harris0.9East Tennessee St.6'6Volunteer State CC (TN)2012
233Jeremy Jones0.89Kansas State6'2PG Seward CC (KS)2011
234Melvin Tabb0.89Kent State6'8Midland College (TX)2012
235Marcus Hall0.88Portland State6'5Fresno City College (CA)2012
236Roosevelt Scott0.87Arizona St.6'3SG Indian Hills2014
237Chris Thomas0.87Marshall6'4G Chipola (FL)2013
238Dominique Elliot0.86Maryland Eastern Shore6'7F Trinity Valley (TX)2013
239Cheikh Mbodji0.86Cincinnati6'9PF Grayson County CC (TX)2011
240Dominic Rutledge0.86West Virginia6'8PF Western Texas College2011
241Edrico McGregor0.85Texas San Antonio6'8North Idaho CC2012
242Andre Ingram0.83Minnesota6'7PF Butler CC (KS)2011
243Greg Allen0.82USC6'3SG Navarro College (TX)2011
244Jaron Nash0.82Texas Tech6'8SF/PF Tyler Junior College (TX)2011
245Casey Arent0.81Oklahoma6'11C Sierra CC (CA)2011
246Hauns Brereton0.81Hawaii6'7SF Western Nebraska CC2011
247Chad Frazier0.81UAB6'4G Gulf Coast State (FL)2013
248Freddie Goldstein0.81South Alabama6'0SG Motlow State CC (TN)2011
249Dejuan Newton0.81Robert Morris6'3G Central Arizona2013
250Stan Simpson0.81Memphis6'10PF/C John A. Logan College (IL)2011
251Wayne Langston0.8Murray St.6'8F McLennan CC2014
252TreVuaghn White0.8Duquesne5'10G Independence CC2013
253D'von Campbell0.79Rutgers6'0G Hutchinson CC2013
254Sean Harris0.79Utah State6'7Yuba College (CA)2012
255Dijon Farr0.78Utah6'6SF Indian Hills CC (IA)2011
256Marcus Holt0.78Colorado State6'10C Paris JC (TX)2013
257Raheem Johnson0.78Buffalo6'9F Barton County CC2014
258Alex Brown0.77San Jose State6'10John A. Logan (IL)2012
259Zach Lofton0.77Illinois State6'4G San Jacinto (TX)2013
260Pat Swilling Jr.0.77Tulsa6'2College of Southern Idaho2012
261Shawn Smith0.76Marhsall6'6F City College of San Fran (CA)2013
262Darnell Taylor0.76Boise St.6'4G Saddleback CC (CA)2013
263Antonio Biglow0.74Montana State6'0PG/SG Mt. San Antonio College (CA)2011
264Travis Daniels0.74Mississippi St.6'8F Shelton State (AL)2013
265Cory Allen0.72USF6'0G Mt. San Antonio (CA)2013
266Orlando Coleman0.72Kennesaw State6'5G Alabama Southern2013
267Alex Davis0.72Fresno State6'9F Hutchinson CC (KS)2013
268Vince Garrett0.72Rutgers6'5Lee College (TX)2012
269DaShawn Gomez0.72Iona6'2Antelope Valley JC (CA)2012
270Deonte Houston0.72Coastal Carolina6'1G Olney Central CC (IL)2013
271Ron Mvouika0.72Missouri St.6'5G Sheridan College (WY)2013
272Marshun Newell0.72Undecided6'2G SW Tenn. CC (TN)2013
273Brandon Parga0.72Iona6'5Citrus College (CA)2012
274Addison Spruill0.72UNC Willmington6'5G Brevard CC (FL)2013
275Tate Stensgaard0.72Western Illinois6'8F Sheridan College (WY)2013
276Kareem Storey0.72Morehead St.6'1G College of South Idaho2013
277Kevin Thomas0.72Troy6'9F Palm Beach State (FL)2013
278Jayson Guerrier0.71Albany6'4SG Alabama Southern CC2011
279Jeremy Robinson0.71Chicago State6'7SF Iowa Western CC2011
280Andrew Young0.71Texas A & M6'8Monterey Peninsula (CA)2012
281Deonte Alexander0.7Lipscomb6'1SG East Mississippi CC2011
282Brandon Brown0.7Loyola Marymount6'2G Phoenix College2015
283Collin Chiverton0.7Eastern Washington6'5SG City College of San Francisco (CA)2011
284Lateef McMullan0.7Portland St.5'11PG Citrus College (FL)2011
285Lonnie Hayes0.69Fairleigh Dickinson6'0PG Missouri St. - West Plains2011
286Brandon Thompson0.69Long Island University6'0PG/SG South Plains College (TX)2011
287Majok Majok0.68Undecided6'9Midland College (TX)2012
288Brandon Morris0.68Houston6'0Kansas City KS CC2012
289Anthony Thomas0.68College of Charleston6'7Hutchinson CC (KS)2012
290Anton Waters0.68Western Kentucky6'6F Gulf Coast St2015
291Johnny Zuppardo0.65Mississippi St.6'8F Jones County CC2014
292Colin Beatty0.64Pacific6'5SF Barton CC (KS)2011
293Tevin Glass0.64Wichita St.6'7F NW Florida St.2014
294Marvin Binney0.63Duquesne6'2New Mexico JC2012
295Qiydar Davis0.63Louisiana Tech6'6SF Indian Hills CC2014
296Chadrack Lufile0.63Wichita State6'9Coffeyville CC (KS)2012
297Ivan Uceda0.63Miami (FL)6'11F Harcum JC2014
298Marquel Curtis0.62Tulsa6'4G Williston State (ND)2013
299Chris Griffin0.62Auburn6'8F Wabash Valley (Il)2013
300Sai Tummala0.62Arizona State6'7G Salt Lake CC2013
301Marco Bourgault0.61St. John's6'6Monroe College (NY)2012
302Jaylen Brantley0.6Maryland5'10PG Odessa College2015
303Jordan Johnson0.6Tennessee Tech6'0G East Georgia St.2013
304Billydee Williams0.59West Virginia6'5SF South Plains2014
305Anthony Allen0.58Oklahoma St.7'0F/C Lamar St. Port Arthur2014
306Taylor Stafford0.57Evansville6'0G Eastern Arizona2014
307Ocatvious Green0.56Lamar6'7F SW Georgia Tech (GA)2013
308Rod Lawrence0.56Ole Miss6'4G South Plains2014
309Xavier Roberson0.56South Alabama6'2SG Paris JC (TX)2011
310Gerson Santo0.56Colorado State6'9College of Southern Idaho2012
311Tavares Speaks0.54Liberty6'4SG Cape Fear CC (NC)2011
312Craig Brown0.53Rutgers6'5G Broward CC (FL)2013
313Fred Richardson0.53Colorado State6'5G Lee College2014
314Jovante Spivey0.53Sam Houston St.6'1G South Georgia State Coll2015
315Quevyn Winters0.53Washington6'6G Indian Hills2014
316Aaron Cheatum0.52Washington St.6'7F East LA2014
317Andre Spight0.52Arizona State6'3SG South Plains2015
318Demario Hines0.49IPFW6'8PF Trinity Valley CC (TX)2011
319Jermaine Morgan0.49Bradley6'8F Moberly Area CC2014
320Greg Sequele0.49Depaul6'8F Citrus (CA)2013
321Malcolm Moore0.48UTEP6'6PF Tyler Junior College (TX)2011
322Betrand Nkali0.48Houston6'10F Lee College2014
323Akolda Manyang0.46Oklahoma7'0C Indian Hills CC2015
324William Nelson0.45Northwestern St. (LA)6'7SF Hutchinson CC (KS)2011
325Stephen Hurt0.44Kansas St.6'10F NW Florida St.2014
326Jalil Abdul-Bassit0.43Oregon6'4G North Idaho2013
327Benji Bell0.43Florida St6'3G NW Florida St2015
328Raphael Carter0.43Nevada6'8Diablo Valley CC2012
329Najeal Young0.43UIC6'5G Lincoln College2015
330Ibrahim Djambo0.42Clemson6'10C Three Rivers CC (MO)2013
331Deng Deng0.4Baylor6'8F Lee College2014
332Stephane Manga0.4Seton Hall6'6G/F Monroe College (NY)2013
333Kyle Meyer0.4Houston6'10F Eastern Florida2015
334Giovanni Mclean0.39Quinnipiac6'1G Westchester CC2014
335Matt Korcheck0.38Arizona6'9Cochise College (AZ)2012
336Rozelle Nix0.36Pitt7'0C Pensacola JC2015
337Raul Delgado0.34BYU6'2Western Nebraska CC2012
338Tyson Smith0.34Loyola (IL)6'1PG College of Southern Idaho2015
339Willie Wiley0.34Evansville6'8F Vincennes2014
340James Hunter0.33Washington State6'10Gillette College (WY)2012
341Jelan Kendrick0.33UNLV6'6G Indian Hills (IA)2013
342Shaheed Davis0.31UCF6'9F Eastern Florida St.2014
343D'Montre Edwards0.3Tennessee6'6Brevard CC (FL)2012
344Jordan Goodman0.3New Mexico6'9SF Harcum JC2014
345Joseph Ucehbo0.29Pitt6'11C Chipola (FL)2013
346Jeremiah Worthem0.29NC Central6'7F Indian Hills CC2015
347Teyvon Myers0.28West Virginia6'2G Williston State2015
348Russell Woods0.28Missouri6'8F John A. Logan2015
349Andrew Zelis0.28Northern Illinois6'11F Kaskaskia CC2015
350Agustin Ambrosino0.27BYU6'8Salt Lake CC (UT)2012
351Charles Ashford0.27Coastal Carolina6'1PG Vincennes University (IN)2011
352Ty Toney0.27Eastern Michigan6'2G Georgia Highlands2015
353Ayinde Sprewell0.26Western Kentucky6'3G Daytona St2014
354Deshawn Freeman0.24Rutgers6'7F Hutchinson CC2015
355Johnny Hamilton0.24Virginia Tech6'11C Jacksonville College2015
356Montray Clemons0.23San Francisco6'7F Pensacola JC2014
357Musa Abdul-Aleem0.22South Florida6'5Georgia Perimeter2012
358Mike Chandler0.22Oregon6'10F NW Florida St.2014
359Karee Ferguson0.22St. Peter's6'8SF/PF Lincoln Trail College2011
360Jarell Marshall0.21Portland6'6F Palm Beach St2015
361Daylen Robinson0.21Texas Tech5'10Moberly Area CC (MO)2012
362Kris Rolle0.2St. Peter's6'6F Colby CC (KS)2013
363Robert Gilchrist0.19Florida State6'9Polk County CC (FL)2012
364Abdoulaye Harouna0.19Miami (OH)6'5G College of Southern Idaho2015
365Willie Atwood0.18Arizona St.6'8F Connors St.2014
366KJ Bluford0.18Iowa State6'2G Northeast CC2013
367Ismaila Dauda0.18Clevleand State6'10C Polk State (FL)2013
368Johnny Woodard0.18Tennessee St6'4G ND State College of Science2015
369Clint Bozner0.17UC Davis6'8LA Trade Tech2012
370Tanksley Efianayi0.16UCF6'5G Daytona St2015
371Kevin Allen0.15Boise State6'9C Pratt CC2014
372Marcus Bell0.15Idaho6'9Marshalltown CC (IA)2012
373Keith Coleman0.15North Texas6'9Marshalltown CC (IA)2012
374Delvin Dickerson0.14Bowling Green6'7SF Paris JC2014
375Justin Pride0.14Cal St. Bakersfield6'0PG Columbia State CC2015
376Kenan Guzonjic0.11Colorado6'8F Midland College (Sat this season)2015
377Ray Kasongo0.11Tennessee6'9F College of Southern Idaho2015
378Trency Jackson0.1Texas Tech6'2NW Florida State2012
379Dale Jones0.09Iowa6'8SF Tyler JC2015
380Dequon Miller0.09Missouri State5'10PG Motlow St2015
381Charles Callison0.08Washington St6'2G San Bernardino Valley CC2015
382Jaleel Cousins0.08South Florida6'10F Navarro JC2014
383J.T. Terrell0.08USC6'3Peninsula College (WA)2012
384Jamir Andrews0.07Albany6'3G Sheridan College2015
385Malcolm Herron0.06Eastern Illinois6'4SG Western Texas College2011
386Keanau Post0.06Missouri6'11C SW Illinois2013
387Daquan Brown0.05Fresno St.6'9PF Barstow CC (CA)2011
388Mychal Mulder0.04Kentucky6'4G Vincennes2015
389Lamont Prosser0.03Portland State6'8Sheridan College2012
390Sam Finley0.01Ole Miss6'2G Howard College2015
391Josh Mendenhall0.01Western Carolina6'8SF/PF Waycross College (GA)2011

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Value Add Group 2: Top Returning Sophomores, Juniors and Seniors

The 2017-18 Projected Value Add of 3,291 players is based on the following process. Returning sophomores make the biggest jump from their freshman season, generally worth about 1 point more per game than their sophomore season. A player generally continues to improve his junior and senior season, but not as much as that first off season.

The following are the top three returning sophomores, juniors and seniors based on projected Value Add:

Top 3 Sophomores; 1, Shamorie Ponds, St. John's 8.13 points per game; 2, Bruce Brown, Miami FL 8.02; 3, Mike Watkins, Penn St. 7.78.

Top 3 Juniors; 1. Ethan Happ, Wisconsin   10.65; 2, Mike Daum, South Dakota St. 9.36; 3, Jalen Brunson, Villanova 9.16.

Top 3 Seniors; 1, Bonzie Colson, Notre Dame 11.33; 2, Jock Landale, St. Mary's 10.38; 3, Ben Lammers, Georgia Tech 10.3.

The values of 313 players who will sit out the coming season after transferring but can take the court again will also be listed at, but you can type "2018" to narrow and only look at the players on the court next season.

A new study of the 61,000+ Value Add rankings from the 2001-02 to present season yielded the following year-by-year averages among all players who played four seasons at the same college:

Freshman Value Add RangeFreshmanSophomoreJuniorSenior
up to 1.000.591.181.571.90
up to 2.001.312.242.783.31
up to
3.01 or higher3.994.054.555.23
4 year players, same school0.981.662.092.48

All such players with a 0.01 to 1.00 Value Add their freshman year averaged improving to 1.18 their sophomore season, 1.57 their junior season and 1.90 their senor season. Based purely on this table it would appear that players with a strong freshman year actually do not improve as much as freshman who do not do as well. However, this is actually because players who already have freshman Value Add ratings of around 3.00 or higher and improve often go directly to the NBA, meaning their jumps each year are not reflected in the table.

In comparing result of NBA-bound players with these four-year players, we find that a standard improvement from season to season is actually better after any season in which the player tops 1.00. The standard projection is calculated for each player based on the following:
  • A freshman with a rating of 1.01 or higher projects to improve by 1.00 his sophomore year, while others project to improve by 0.7.
  • A sophomore with a rating of 1.01 or higher projects to improve 0.8 his junior year, while others improve 0.4. 
  • A junior with a rating of 1.01 or higher projects to improve 06 his senior year, while others improve 0.3.
Alternated minimum projects replace these projections for some select players:
  • A player ranked as one of the top 50 or so NBA prospects in their place have a minimum Value Add ranking based on exactly where they rank that will take the place of a lower projected Value Add using the system above.
  • A player who was highly rated as a recruit who has a bad year (often the result of injury or a lack of playing time) gets at least a rating equal to one point below the average number of stars he received as a recruit (e.g. a 5-star recruit who has a bad first year, still gets at least a 4.0 Value Add based on a history of such players improvement much more dramatically than others).

Based on running this math, and spending a couple of weeks trying to get players sorted and onto their correct teams, the following are the players projected to have the top Value Add impact on their teams next season.

1Bonzie Colson 35Notre DameACC11.33
2Ethan Happ 22WisconsinB1010.65
3Jock Landale 34St. Mary'sWCC10.38
4Ben Lammers 44Georgia TechACC10.3
5Jevon Carter 2West VirginiaB129.96
6Kenrich Williams 34Texas ChristianB129.93
7Peyton Aldridge 23DavidsonA109.73
8Jeffrey Carroll 30Oklahoma St.B129.61
9Mike Daum 24South Dakota St.Sum9.36
10Joe Chealey 13College of CharlestonCAA9.29
11Jalen Brunson 1VillanovaBE9.16
12Dedric Lawson 1MemphisAmer9.12
13Michael PorterMissouriSEC9
14Vladimir Brodziansky 10Texas ChristianB128.82
15Mikal Bridges 25VillanovaBE8.78
16Devontae Cacok 15UNC WilmingtonCAA8.75
17Jacob Evans 1CincinnatiAmer8.72
18Brandon Clarke 15San Jose St.MWC8.71
19Gary Clark 11CincinnatiAmer8.68
20Jaylen Adams 10St. BonaventureA108.55
21Rob Gray 32HoustonAmer8.54
22Mohamed BambaTexasB128.5
23Yante Maten 1GeorgiaSEC8.4
24Shake Milton 1Southern MethodistAmer8.38
25Khyri Thomas 2CreightonBE8.21

When we tally all players we find in the system, and add the team cumulative team ratings, the follow would be the "way too early" field of 68 teams - including all conference winners and the top at-large:

I wouldn't put any credibility on the team totals, I finally got to a point I could at least run it but would be pretty shocked to see the Alabama-Auburn basketball game be this big, haha.  I do have a starting point now though with the data in the system and calculated.

Teams like defending national champion North Carolina lost most of their big Value Add players, but will restock and move up this list, though they did drop from 1st to 61st at after the 2009 title.

Tournament FieldConfProjected
Wichita St.MVC47.84
Southern CaliforniaP1244.08
Michigan St.B1041.64
Texas A&MSEC41.32
West VirginiaB1240.44
Seton HallBE40.36
Miami FLACC40.11
Texas ChristianB1239.55
St. Mary'sWCC36.26
St. John'sBE33.16
Notre DameACC32.25
Oklahoma St.B1231.93
Wake ForestACC31.89
Mississippi St.SEC31.64
Western KentuckyCUSA30.65
Rhode IslandA1030.09
College of CharlestonCAA28.26
Fresno St.MWC28.19
Louisiana LafayetteSB26.43
Boise St.WAC26.19
Western MichiganMAC25.77
Montana St.BSky20.53
UC IrvineBW19.86
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC18.64
North Carolina A&TMEAC17.03
Alcorn St.SWAC15.23

Please advice us of any and all corrections to who is on which team.

Wednesday, June 7, 2017

Value Add Group 5: NBA Prospects Who Are Done with College

The fifth group of players we evaluate are the players who are done with college and hoping to make the NBA. Value Add is assigned to the first four groups to project how many points each will improve his team, but for this group we measure other factors to determine their likelihood of being a star or even making the NBA. (to see the analytic rankings of the players, scroll to the bottom of this post)

Harry Giles Value Add was 1.53, meaning he was worth only one to two points per game to Duke over a replacement player. Of the 4,142 players whose best Value Add season was between 1 and 1.99, he will be only the 20th to make the NBA (0.5%). The vast majority of players worth more than 8.00 points a game to their team make the NBA, while about half worth 7.00 to 8.00 points per game get to the NBA, and a very low percentage of players with a Value Add below 7.00 ever make it.

Best Value Add     Players   Made NBA% made it
0 to 0.9910,640100.1%
1 to 1.994142200.5%
2 to 2.992010311.5%
3 to 3.991353483.5%
4 to 4.9998210010.2%
5 to 5.9966412919.4%
6 to 6.9942812429.0%
7 to 7.9926812446.3%
8 to 8.9915711673.9%
9 or higher12310787.0%
All Players20,7678093.9%

Giles 27 inch vertical ranks only a 2.3 on a scale of 0 to 10, the result of two ACL injuries. Together with the low Value Add, the stats do not back up his potential selection in the top half of the first round.

However, he is above average in the other four biggest statistical indicators of future NBA success; 1) his wing span is more than 7'3", 2) he steals the ball 1.7 percent of opponents trips down the court (above average and great for a power forward-center), 3) he grabs 21.5% of opponents' missed shots, and he takes 17.9 percent of Duke's shots when on the court (players who do not hog the ball do better in the NBA).

Looking at the table below under freshman, of the 11492 freshman in the database from the 2001-02 season to present, a total of 622 (5.4%) eventually make the NBA, but only 130 (1.1%) are "one-and-dones" who make the NBA after that season. A total of 1.1% of sophomores and juniors go to the NBA after that season, and 3.1% of the season. When you throw all the seasons together in the final column to the right including some where we are not sure of the class, 3.9% of the players on the court in a given season will eventually end up in the NBA.

% who will make NBAFreshmenSophomoresJuniorsSeniorsTotal Seasons
How many will make NBA622/130 of 11,492570/132 of 11,498530/159 of 13,991388 of 12,4662,124 of 54,912
Make NBA next season (Ave.)5.43 (1.1%)6.59 (1.1%)6.38 (1.1%)6.45 (3.1%)6.29 (1.5%)
Will Make NBA (Ave.)3.40 (5.4%)4.84 (5.0%)5.49 (3.8%)6.45 (3.1%)4.87 (3.9%)
Stay 1 school 4 years (Ave.)0.981.662.092.481.80
Will not make NBA (Ave.)0.761.201.421.781.28

Looking at the rest of the columns, the one-and-done freshmen have an average Value Add of 5.43 their one season in college, while freshman who eventually end up in the NBA have a 3.40 Value Add. Compare that from a 0.98 Value Add average for freshman who go on to play all four years at the same school, and 0.76 for all freshmen who will never make the NBA.

For purposes of this study, we presumed players projected to go in the first 40 picks of the next two drafts will get on an NBA court.

In the Notes search at type "nba" to limit the  54,912 total player seasons from 2001-02 to present down to the 2,124 played by a player who would one day see an NBA floor.

Players' careers end when they drop out of a program because they are not good enough or face other issues, or they run out of eligibility after their senior season, or they leave to attempt to make the NBA.

Factors in Rankings of Future NBA Potential of Draftees (see table below)

The following factors are reflected in the table below - and a sum of each ranking adds up to the "Predict" column below used to rank all prospects.

1. Value Add Adjusted by Class Year

While the odds are against a player making the NBA until they put up a Value Add season of about 7.60 or higher, a freshman who is worth over six runs has a strong chance. To break it down by class:

Class Chance at NBA1 Fr  2 So  3 Jr  4 Sr
less than 3.001%  0%  0%  0%
3 to 4.9921%  9%  11%  4%
5 to 7.9957%  34%  32%  18%
8 or higher63%  66%  59%  61%

Because a senior needs to be worth about three more points than a freshman to make the NBA, we subtract 3 from a seniors' Value Add, or 2 from a sophomore or junior, to give the equivalent of a freshmen's Value Add. Therefore Sindarius Thornwell's 12.37 Value Add as a senior is reduced to 9.37, barely higher than Lonzo Ball's 9.33 as a freshman. The column "VA/Class" gives this adjusted figure for each prospect in the table below.

2. KenPom NBA Indicators (DReb, Stl% and Shot%)

Many great college players lack the combination of skills needed to jump to the NBA level. The top ranking based on the three most important stats at belongs to Caleb Swanigan due to him grabbing an incredible 32.7% of all rebounds on opponents' missed shots (13% is average). Swanigan's 0.8 percent of steals for opponents' trips is half the national average (1.6%) and he took 25.6% of Purdue's shots (players who stay below the average 20% do better in the NBA), but the rebounding is so incredible it points to NBA success.

Donovan Mitchell of Louisville (3.7% steals) nudged out a pair of players who led South Carolina to a stunning Final Four with steals on 3.6% of opponents' trips down the court each (Thornwell and PJ Dozier).

My selection of Jimmy Butler as the future star years ago was based on how few shots he took to put up good numbers, and three prospects stand out this year for taking less than one-sixth of their team's shots (Kentucky's Edrice Adebayo, UCLA's ke Anigbogu and Oregon's Jordan Bell). Players who can shoot themselves out of slumps in college find they do not have that luxury in the NBA, where they must take the court hot.

Note for nerds only. These three factors are weighted (for fellow math nerds, the steals are multiplied by 6 based on giving them the most weight with a 0.9% standard deviation from the 1.6 average, the defensive rebounds are not adjusted based on already having a standard deviation of 5.2, and the lower shots are the lesser of the three factors and multiplied by 0.4 due to a 6.2 standard deviation).

3. Vertical Jump from Combine

I like to use a number of the athletic measurements from the combine, and wish they still included the bench press where Jae Crowder drew attention with 20 reps out of college. I do assume a count of bench presses based purely on position to adjust the vertical into a specific neutral position. I'd love to see if Jason Tatum moved into the top couple based on what I guess is a strong bench press.

However, for simplicity sake I only included the best single stat, the vertical leap, in the table below.

This factor takes the number of inches in the standing vertical jump, and then adds the number I associate with the traditional positions. A pure center is a 5.0, and a power forward a 4.0, so if I have someone who plays both then I make them a 4.3 position if they are mainly power forward, or a 4.7 if primarily a center. By adding the vertical leap and the position, and then subtracting 29, we get roughly a 0 to 10 scale. However, I do add 4 additional points to pure point guards to get the final "vertical" number below.

4. Wingspan Adjusted by Position

Likewise, twice the position factor from the previous paragraph is subtracted from the total number of inches in a player's wing span. Once again the same factor is then subtracted from all players to yield a result from roughly 0 to 10.

When I used a more complex system for prep for NBA teams I factored size of hands,etc., but we are keeping it simple here to lay out the basic process using the most important factors.

5. Mock Drafts

Given that this is a basic variation of the system, I do start with the average of mock drafts as a baseline. Just as I tell anyone whenever I am called "Mr. Moneyball" during anything from a Fox News story to a radio interview, I stress that observation is always key. Analytics just provide one other variable beyond all the shooting matrix listed at and the many things observed by scouts.

There I start with 60 points for the first pick in the average mock draft, 59 for second etc. The rest of these calculations move people up or down from those subjective rankings - which NBA team officials tell me seem to be fairly accurate but lag behind the latest info.

With all that outlined, here are the calculations of the predictors for how well each player will likely perform at the NBA-level. The goal here is not to pinpoint but frame how different types of information can be balanced into more effective evaluations.
RankPlayerTeamPredictVA/ClassStat factorVerticalWingspanClassPosAdj
1Lonzo BallUCLA95.89.335.54.08.7Fr1.0
2Markelle Fultz (6 gm inj)Washington90.
3Josh JacksonKansas89.27.786.74.05.0Fr2.3
4Jonathan IsaacFlorida St.88.76.398.64.08.3Fr3.3
5Lauri MarkkanenArizona87.78.896.04.09.0Fr4.0
6Frank NtilikinaFrance87.67.0010.04.07.6Int1.0
7Jayson TatumDuke85.75.887.14.06.8Fr3.0
8De'Aaron FoxKentucky84.
9Jarrett AllenTexas82.
10Dennis SmithNC State80.56.624.94.04.4Fr1.0
11Malik MonkKentucky79.37.793.24.03.5Fr2.0
12John CollinsWake Forest79.
13Zach CollinsGonzaga77.66.387.84.03.0Fr5.0
14TJ LeafUCLA74.97.626.74.03.0Fr4.0
15Justin PattonCreighton74.96.626.72.05.0Fr5.0
16Edrice AdebayoKentucky74.57.315.88.86.2Fr4.3
17Donovan MitchellLouisville74.36.655.59.56.0So2.0
18Luke KennardDuke68.
19Ike AnigboguUCLA66.
20Justin JacksonUNC66.75.974.23.55.0Jr3.0
21Harry GilesDuke66.41.537.32.36.7Fr4.3
22Jordan BellOregon65.76.547.76.83.2Jr4.3
23Caleb SwaniganPurdue65.77.3610.64.06.4So4.3
24Terrance FergusonUSA64.
25PJ DozierSouth Carolina63.62.846.26.38.4So1.3
26Kyle KuzmaUtah63.
27Wesley IwunduKansas St.63.04.387.04.88.4Sr2.3
28Rodions KurucsLatvia60.
29DJ WilsonMichigan58.
30Tyler LydonSyracuse56.
31Dwayne BaconFlorida St.55.42.974.83.35.4So2.3
32Ivan RabbCalifornia54.
33Sindarius ThornwellSouth Carolina54.29.376.40.06.0Sr2.0
34Semi OjeleyeSMU52.77.485.39.33.2Jr3.3
35Johnathan MotleyBaylor51.96.637.74.08.0Jr4.0
36Edmond Sumner (17g inj)Xavier51.64.495.24.06.4So1.3
37Frank JacksonDuke51.
38Josh HartVillanova48.
39Jaron BlossomgameClemson48.
40Tony BradleyUNC47.73.886.40.57.0Fr5.0
41Jawun EvansOklahoma St.47.16.644.93.53.5So1.0
42Anzejs PasecniksLatvia47.
43OG Anunoby (18g inj)Indiana46.82.456.24.07.7So3.3
44Jonathan JeanneFrance43.
45Cameron OliverNevada41.83.718.13.05.3So4.0
46Derrick WhiteColorado41.46.404.43.34.9Sr1.3
47Mathias LessortFrance40.
48Frank MasonKansas39.58.514.210.01.3Sr1.0
49Damyean DotsonHouston38.
50Nigel Williams-GossGonzaga36.
51Monte MorrisIowa St.33.57.474.64.02.0Sr1.0
52Alec PetersValparaiso32.84.537.94.02.8Sr4.0
53Devin RobinsonFlorida32.84.966.69.56.8Jr3.0
54Tyler DorseyOregon31.
55Sterling BrownSMU31.34.986.44.05.0Sr2.3
56Dillon BrooksOregon31.23.934.45.00.0Jr3.0
57Aleksandar VezenkovBulgaria29.
58Jonah BoldenAustralia27.
59Egemen GuvenTurkey26.
60Justin JacksonMaryland24.94.605.90.59.3Fr3.0
61Kennedy MeeksUNC24.74.538.64.03.0Sr5.0
62Rawle AlkinsArizona24.
63Nigel HayesWisconsin24.23.525.84.07.3Sr4.0
64Eric MikaBYU24.05.607.14.31.4So4.3
65Kobi SimmonsArizona23.72.372.72.83.4Fr1.3
66Davon ReedMiami FL23.34.525.11.87.4Sr2.3
67Thomas WelshUCLA22.53.438.34.03.4Jr4.3
68Derrick WaltonMichigan22.36.995.92.00.5Sr1.0
69Chris BoucherOregon22.21.766.74.08.0Sr4.0
70Thomas BryantIndiana22.
71Isaiah HicksUNC21.72.495.76.54.5Sr4.0
72Isaiah BriscoeKentucky21.22.645.04.07.0So1.0
73Kadeem AllenArizona20.31.815.46.05.3Sr2.0
74Andrew JonesTexas18.95.505.40.02.5Fr2.0
75Moritz WagnerMichigan17.83.745.90.54.0So4.0
76Peter JokIowa16.63.655.90.03.4Sr2.3
77Chance ComancheArizona16.30.585.14.06.0So5.0
78VJ BeachemNotre Dame15.
79Jamel ArtisPittsburgh14.92.604.30.05.4Sr2.3
80Melo TrimbleMaryland12.93.874.60.50.0Jr1.0
81Omer YurtsevenNC State11.60.525.62.03.0Fr5.0