Sunday, November 26, 2017

NBA Predictor Graph Based on Value Add and Year in School

As we tabulate the most valuable college basketball players in the country at www.valueaddbasketball.com, the following chart gives a first glance at how likely a player is to make the NBA. Other factors such as three stats at www.kenpom.com (DReb%, Stl% and Shot%) as well as combine results are key as well.

However, for a quick estimate take the player's Value Add and his year in school and apply it to this chart. For example, a freshman (blue line) with a 6.50 Value Add makes the NBA about 57 percent of the time, while a senior (yellow line) with the same 6.50 Value Add would have only about an 18 percent chance of making the NBA.



Saturday, September 30, 2017

Baseball Breakdown of win margins and sweeps

In 2,427 Major League Baseball games in 2016, the home team won by 17 runs once, and the road team won by 19 runs once. In between, here are the margins. A team has the same chance of winning a game by at least five runs that they do of sweeping a 3-game schedule.

When you go through the table below and run the math on the Houston Astros recently becoming the first team since 1887 to win four straight games by at least 9 runs, you see the odds are 1 in 1.9 million. A team has only 2.68% chance of winning by at least 9 runs in any given game, so the chance of doing it four times in a row is calculated by 0.0268 x 0.0268 x 0.0268 x 0.0268 which equals on in 1.9 million.

For the Cleveland Indians historic 22-game winning streak, you simply multiply the 50-50 chance of winning a given game 22 times in a row for 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5, which equals 1 in 4.2 million.

One suggestion for anyone who plays video games or old board games like Statis-Pro Baseball, Accurate Baseball Made Simple or APBA, is to give the winning team credit for a three-game sweep whenever they win by at least five runs but give them a 2-1 record anytime they win by four runs or less.

Because it is hard to play enough games for accurate records, this gives a greater chance of better teams having more reflective records over time. Here are the margins for all games, with the negative indicating the home team one and the positive number indicating the home team won.


Road team marginOccurances% of timerunning %
-1710%0%
-1610%0%
-1420%0%
-1340%0%
-1270%1%
-11151%1%
-10191%2%
-9171%3%
-8372%4%
-7592%7%
-6733%10%
-51054%14.0%
-41356%20%
-31817%27%
-22219%36%
-141017%53%
127611%64%
22249%74%
31838%81%
41416%87.0%
5974%91.0%
6623%94%
7623%96%
8311%97%
9281%99%
10161%99%
1190%100%
1370%100%
1410%100%
1510%100%
1610%100%
1910%100%
Total Games =2427

Thanks to MLB Sweeps for compiling the series sweep records in three game series, something I have wanted for decades. As you can see, while the chance of either a Sweep or a win in a single game by at least five runs is 14% in both cases, the home team has a better shot at a sweep than a 5-run win (17% to 14%), but that is balanced by the road team having a better chance at a 5-run win than a sweep (13% to 11%).


2016 counts of games and seriesOccurancesPercentage
Total 3-game Series552
Home Team Sweeps9517%
Neither team swept39572%
Road Team Sweeps6211%

As a result, the following is the suggestion for playing out a short season by counting each game as three games on the record:

Proposed process for building records (every game counts as a 3-game series until playoffs)
1. If either team wins by at least 5 runs, they are credited with 3 wins to none
2. If the game is decided by within 4 runs (or extra innings) then winning team gets 2 wins and losing team 1 win
3. Home team with a lead can finish their final at bat (bottom of 9th or extra inning) to try to get to 5-run margin
4. Teams can use best relievers to try to preserve or get to 5-run game

This process lowers the chance of bad teams getting lucky because "luck" typically results from bad teams barely beating good teams in some games while being blown out more often.
Going into a game each team has a little better than 13% chance of winning by at least 5 runs.

Going into a 3-game series, each team has a little better than 13% chance of sweeping all 3 games.

Sunday, September 24, 2017

Value Add - Links to all 32 conference preseason rankings

As millions of college students settle on campus, they join alums in watching fellow students compete from the football stadiums to cross country courses such as those my twin Division 1 athletes run. Now www.valueaddbasketball.com rates more than 3,500 basketball players who can start practice in 12 days at Midnight Madness. Pick your conference from the 32 links below for a quick rundown of the top basketball players and teams with a comparison on how each football team ranks.

  1. ACC: Duke Joins Louisville as National Contender with Bagley Signing
  2. American Athletic: Ex-Football Big East Schools Add Basketball-only Wichita State
  3. American East: Albany Chasing Vermont Again
  4. Atlantic 10: St. Bonaventure Duo Could Challenge Dayton, Rhode Island and VCU
  5. Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast Shoots for More Upsets If they can Hold Off Lipscomb
  6. Big 12: TCU's Bursts into Football Title Hunt, Then Could Challenge in Toughest Hoops Conference
  7. Big East - St. John's Most Likely to Replace MU to Give Big East 7 Bids Again, Unless MU Defense Improves
  8. Big Sky: Top 100 Player Hall Leads Balanced Hoops Season after E. Washington Football Dominates
  9. Big South: Asheville's Top 100 Duo One of Best, But Liberty a Balanced Threat
  10. Big Ten: Purdue and Michigan State Ready to Seek Hoops Title After Other Big Ten Teams Shoot for Football Title
  11. Big West Teams All Get to Visit Hawaii While Settling Balanced Hoops Season
  12. Colonial Athletic Association: After JMU Football, Charleston and Elon Should Battle for March Madness Bid
  13. Conference USA: UAB Returns to Football Field While Future NBA Star Leads Middle Tennessee
  14. Horizon League: Hayes Leads 4 Oakland Stars to Potential Title
  15. Ivy League: Princeton Builds on 23-7 Season to try to hold off Harvard and Yale for Title
  16. MAAC: Iona Once Again Team to Beat with Edogi Transferring to Join McGill
  17. Mid-American: Western Michigan Battles for Top Football and Basketball Teams and Top Hoops Player
  18. Mid-Eastern Athletic's Morgan State Favorite to Dethrone NC Central Behind POY Kendley
  19. Missouri Valley Teams Battle for Title with Wichita State's Departure, Valpo's Arrival
  20. Mountain West: UNLV Edges Nevada in Tough Hoops Conference, While San Diego State Football Power
  21. Northeast: 5-foot-5 Star Shoots for Player of Year, Repeat Title for Mt. St. Mary's
  22. Ohio Valley:Jacksonville St. Football Dominance Builds on Hoops Upset of Belmont
  23. Pac-12: USC Hoops Could Surpass Arizona Hoops and Even USC Football
  24. Patriot - Bucknell Dominance of Patriot League Hoops Should Follow Army-Navy Classic
  25. SEC: Auburn, Florida, Texas A&M and Mizzou Join Kentucky As 'Basketball' Schools This Year
  26. Southern - Darryl Strawberry's Son Gives Mercer All-Southern Conference Duo, After Football Team Almost Shocks Auburn
  27. Southland - Jalan West Given 7th Year for Quest for All-American Status and 1st Southland Title Over Stephen F. Austin
  28. Summit League: Analytics See Denver Hoops Challenge to Dakota Schools That Dominate Football
  29. Sun Belt: Lafayette or Georgia Southern Could Deny Troy and Arlington Repeat Hoops Titles
  30. SWAC: Jerry Rice and Grambling NFL Greats Yield to March Madness Hopes
  31. WAC - 33 Years After Football National Title, WAC Hosts 1st For-Profit Basketball School
  32. West Coast: After Football BYU Will Challenge Basketball-only St. Mary's & Gonzaga

Corrections are welcome. Simply email pudnerjohn@takeback.org or call or text 404.606.3163. You are welcome to use links or site top players on any list as “Value Add All-Conference Players.” The first five players on each list are 1st team All-Conference players, the sixth through 10th are 2nd team, and the 11th through 15th are third team based on the actual additional points they add to their team. In most cases, this ranking is similar to what sports writers or sports information directors would perceive, but players can come off the bench with incredibly efficient three-point shooting or dominance around the basket that makes them more valuable than starters who are not as efficient. You can always run your own search of projections for current players or ratings for all players since the 2001-02 season by going to www.valueaddbasketball.com.

ACC: Duke Joins Louisville as National Contender with Bagley Signing

Marvin Bagley's late signing makes Duke a national contender with five of the top 60 players in the country, and gives the ACC three of the top 10 players. Bagley may be the best NBA player in this draft, but he ranks behind projected 1st team All-Americans in Notre Dame's Bonzie Colson (projected national Player of the Year) and Ben Lammers, who reportedly chose Georgia Tech after seeing the engineering department's 3D printer.

Value Add projects the first 14 players listed below as Top 100 players, with Deng Adel of Louisville ranked 106th of 4,000.

Here is where Value Add ranks each Atlantic Coast Conference team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams against all other schools.  And yes, Clemson's football team will try to give the ACC another football-basketball double championship.

Updates will be provided here.

ACC / 2017 SeedHoops 2017-18Football
Louisville 2115
Duke 2431
Miami FL 82412
North Carolina 13237
Virginia Tech 93313
Virginia 53776
Notre Dame 54120
Wake Forest 116236
Clemson632
Georgia Tech6728
Syracuse12479
Boston College13167
Florida St. 314711
North Carolina St.16247
Pittsburgh25042

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.

Top 15 ACC PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Bonzie Colson 3511.33Notre Dame`6-05
Ben Lammers 4410.30Georgia Tech`6-10
Marvin Bagley9.65Duke`6-11
Grayson Allen 38.50Duke`6-05
Bruce Brown 118.28Miami FL`6-05
Joel Berry 28.00North Carolina`6-00
Wendell Carter7.85Duke`6-10
Bryant Crawford 137.77Wake Forest`6-03
Josh Okogie 57.65Georgia Tech`6-04
Gary Trent Jr7.61Duke`6-06
Trevon Duval7.60Duke`6-02
Isaiah Wilkins 217.30Virginia`6-07
Deontae Hawkins 237.16Boston College`6-08
Lonnie Walker6.99Miami FL`6-04
Deng Adel6.74Louisville`6-07

Ken Pomeroy ranked the ACC as second to only the Big 12 of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

American East: Albany Chasing Vermont Again

Four American East schools have strong FCS football teams as well, but when it comes to basketball it should once again be Vermont making a run to pose a threat in the NCAA, with Albany in the best case to upset them.

Value Add projects the top seven players below are all in the top 10% of all players in the country.

Here is where Value Add ranks each American East team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams against all other schools (including behind the 129 FBS schools. Updates will be provided here.

American East / 2017 SeedHoops 2017-18Football
Vermont 1397
Albany125130
UMBC155
New Hampshire233131
Binghamton235
UMass Lowell246
Maine257148
Stony Brook261126
Hartford298

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.

Top 15 AE PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Tanner Leissner 216.48New Hampshire`6-06
Joe Cremo 35.84Albany`6-04
Anthony Lamb 35.60Vermont`6-06
Jahad Thomas 105.30UMass Lowell`6-02
Trae Bell-Haynes 25.30Vermont`6-02
Payton Henson 354.77Vermont`6-08
David Nichols 134.70Albany`6-00
Ernie Duncan 204.28Vermont`6-03
Greig Stire 433.76Albany`6-07
Joe Sherburne 133.62Maryland Baltimore Co`6-06
Jairus Lyles 103.50Maryland Baltimore Co`6-02
KJ Maura 113.40Maryland Baltimore Co`5-08
Devonte Campbell 123.26Albany`6-06
Tyrell Sturdivant 123.20Stony Brook`6-07
Travis Charles 303.08Albany`6-06

Ken Pomeroy ranked the American East 24th best of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

American Athletic: Ex-Football Big East Schools Add Basketball-only Wichita State

The American Athletic Conference was formed by schools kicked out of the Big East by basketball schools after years of fighting, but this season the conference added back one basketball-only school - potential national contender Wichita State. Football is competitive throughout, but took a blow when Houston lost their head football coach.

The addition of Wichita State's Landry Shamet gives the conference six of the top 34 players in the country, according to Value Add, which projects Wichita State could battle Cincinnati for the title. Central Florida seems the most likely to make the tournament, which last year included on Cincinnati and SMU from the conference.

Here is where Value Add ranks each American Athletic Conference team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams. Updates will be provided here.

American Athletic / 2017 SeedHoops 2017-18Football
Wichita St. 106
Cincinnati 61297
UCF3881
Memphis7365
Tulsa7466
SMU 68183
Houston8449
Temple8663
Connecticut99143
Tulane18798
South Florida22941
East Carolina272122

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.

Top 15 American Athletic PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Dedric Lawson 19.12Memphis`6-09
Landry Shamet 118.80Wichita St.`6-04
Jacob Evans 18.72Cincinnati`6-06
Gary Clark 118.68Cincinnati`6-08
Rob Gray 328.54Houston`6-02
Shake Milton 18.38Southern Methodist`6-06
Tacko Fall 247.12Central Florida`7-06
Markis McDuffie 327.07Wichita St.`6-08
Kyle Washington 246.70Cincinnati`6-09
Shizz Alston 36.70Temple`6-04
Jarrey Foster 106.54Southern Methodist`6-06
Jalen Adams 26.20Connecticut`6-03
BJ Taylor 16.00Central Florida`6-02
Cameron Reynolds 55.82Tulane`6-07
Junior Etou 05.78Tulsa`6-08

Ken Pomeroy ranked the American Athletic 7th best of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

Atlantic 10: St. Bonaventure Duo Could Challenge Dayton, Rhode Island and VCU

FBS members Massachusetts and Richmond both look strong on the football field, but these school hope for another banner March Madness year for the Atlantic 10.

Value Add projects six top 100 teams, all of which could make a run at tournament bids. One of the best duos in the country is Jaylen Adams (ranked 30th of 4,000 players) and Matt Mobley (61st) out of 4,000. Adams could get Player of the Year, but Value Add pegs Aldridge as the ninth best player in the country.

Here is where Value Add ranks each Atlantic 10 team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams against all other schools (including behind the 129 FBS schools). Updates will be provided here.

Atlantic 10 / 2017 SeedHoops 2017-18Football
Rhode Island 1164188
VCU 1079
Saint Bonaventure85
Davidson88408
Fordham93205
La Salle100
Saint Joseph's107
Saint Louis133
George Mason195
Dayton 7197265
Richmond207117
Massachusetts208156
George Washington296
Duquesne309208

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.


Top 15 A10 PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Peyton Aldridge 239.73Davidson`6-08
Jaylen Adams 108.55St. Bonaventure`6-02
Matt Mobley 27.53St. Bonaventure`6-03
Justin Tillman 47.27Virginia Commonwealth`6-07
EC Matthews 06.30Rhode Island`6-05
Shavar Newkirk 16.20St. Joseph's`6-00
BJ Johnson6.00La Salle`6-07
Jared Terrell 325.80Rhode Island`6-03
Jonathan Williams 105.71Virginia Commonwealth`6-01
Xeyrius Williams 205.33Dayton`6-08
Pookie Powell 05.30La Salle`6-00
De'Monte Buckingham 114.82Richmond`6-04
Otis Livingston 44.82George Mason`5-11
MJ Walker4.74Fordham`0-00
Amar Stukes 24.68La Salle`6-02

Ken Pomeroy ranked the Atlantic 10 as the 8th best of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast Shoots for More Upsets If they can Hold Off Lipscomb

Andy Enfield shoots for a national title at USC, but the jamming program he built at Florida Gulf Coast is still jamming Brandon Goodwin, one of the Top 100 players in the country and the preseason Player of the Year, who can pass into six players who are either 6-foot-9 or 6-foot-10.

Value Add the conference shapes up as a likely two team race between FGSU and Lipscomb, which has two of the most valuable four players in the conference in Garrison Mathews and Rob Marberry. Do not feel bad for the New Jersey Institute of Technology (NJIT) for ranking near the bottom after an 11-21 season. After being an independent, the smart New Jersey students now play in a conference that let's them travel to Florida to play basketball throughout the winter.

Here is where Value Add ranks each Atlantic Sun team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams against all other schools (including behind the 129 FBS schools). Updates will be provided here.



ASun / 2017 SeedHoops 2017-18Football
Lipscomb118
Florida Gulf Coast 14122
Stetson240401
USC Upstate270
Kennesaw St.281194
North Florida293
NJIT316
Jacksonville330336

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.


Top 15 ASun PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Brandon Goodwin6.94Florida Gulf Coast`6-02
Garrison Mathews 245.61Lipscomb`6-05
Nick Masterson 215.19Kennesaw St.`6-06
Rob Marberry 04.59Lipscomb`6-07
Divine Myles4.27Stetson`5-11
Derick Newton4.20Stetson`6-06
Mike Cunningham 14.00South Carolina UpSt.`6-01
Zach Johnson 54.00Florida Gulf Coast`6-02
Nathan Moran 53.65Lipscomb`5-10
Christian Terrell 113.62Florida Gulf Coast`6-05
Garrett Sams 113.20North Florida`6-06
Devin Harris3.00Jacksonville`6-06
Wajid Aminu 23.00North Florida`6-07
Jace Hogan 442.96Jacksonville`6-06
Rayjon Tucker 32.93Florida Gulf Coast`6-05

Ken Pomeroy ranked the Atlantic Sun 25th of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

Big 12: TCU's Bursts into Football Title Hunt, Then Could Challenge in Toughest Hoops Conference

The best basketball conference, according to Ken Pomeroy, will be back with six of the top 21 players in the country, including two from Texas Christian. Forgive the TCU fans from not paying attention yet, after they went into Oklahoma State Saturday for a huge football upset that makes them the biggest potential threat to Oklahoma and a National contender for the football title.

After a terrible 11-22 opening campaign, Value Add projects that former VCU coach has the talent lined up to let the Texas Longhorns take a major step and potentially give the conference a fifth ranked team in a group led by Kansas.

Here is where Value Add ranks each Big 12 team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams against all other schools. TCU will jump substantially from their football ranking of 24th and Oklahoma State will drop from No. 7 after TCU's big upset. Updates will be provided here.


Big 12 / 2017 SeedHoops 2017-18Football
Kansas 18128
West Virginia 41535
TCU1624
UTEP17186
Texas2654
Texas Tech3139
Baylor 35387
Oklahoma603
Oklahoma St. 10617
Kansas St. 1110838
Iowa St. 515757

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order. Jevon Carter projects as the 5th best player in the country, while Kenrich Williams is one spot behind him as the 6th best returning player.

Top 15 Big 12 PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Jevon Carter 29.96West Virginia`6-02
Kenrich Williams 349.93Texas Christian`6-07
Jeffrey Carroll 309.61Oklahoma St.`6-06
Devonte' Graham 49.20Kansas`6-02
Mohamed Bamba8.94Texas`7-00
Vladimir Brodziansky 108.82Texas Christian`6-11
Malik Newman 148.20Kansas`6-03
Manu Lecomte 207.70Baylor`5-11
Keenan Evans 127.20Texas Tech`6-03
Andrew Jones7.10Texas`6-04
Dean Wade 326.84Kansas St.`6-10
Trae Young6.80Oklahoma`0-00
Billy Preston6.70Kansas`6-10
Zach Smith 116.70Texas Tech`6-08
Jo Lual-Acuil 06.64Baylor`7-00

Ken Pomeroy ranked the Big 12 the best of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

Big Sky: Top 100 Player Hall Leads Balanced Hoops Season after E. Washington Football Dominates

Eastern Washington won a big showdown at Montana, 48-41, to establish themselves as once again better than many FBS football teams. When it comes to basketball, Montana State's Tyler Hall is a top 100 player (of 4,000) in a balanced basketball conference.

Value Add projects a very balanced basketball season after North Dakota earned a 15th seed after a 22-12 season.

Here is where Value Add ranks each Big Sky team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams against all other schools (including behind the 129 FBS schools). Updates will be provided here.

Big Sky / 2017 SeedHoops 2017-18Football
Montana St.144164
Montana156147
Northern Colorado169172
Idaho171121
North Dakota 15193132
Eastern Washington20192
Weber St.202151
Portland St.232179
Southern Utah252113
Northern Arizona271171
Sacramento St.274
Idaho St.284177

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.

Top 15 Big Sky PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Tyler Hall 36.85Montana St.`6-05
Victor Sanders 115.58Idaho`6-05
Ahmaad Rorie 145.51Montana`6-01
Bogdan Bliznyuk 325.43Eastern Washington`6-06
Geno Crandall 04.80North Dakota`6-03
Michael Oguine 04.52Montana`6-02
Justin Strings 34.30Sacramento St.`6-07
Traylin Farris 304.19Portland St.`6-08
James McGee 143.79Southern Utah`6-02
Bryce Canda 03.57Portland St.`6-04
Harald Frey 53.56Montana St.`6-06
Jonah Radebaugh 123.44Northern Colorado`6-02
Dusty Baker 253.35Weber St.`6-04
Brekkott Chapman 03.20Weber St.`6-08
Fabijan Krslovic 203.14Montana`6-08
Jerrick Harding 103.14Weber St.`6-01

Ken Pomeroy ranked the Big Sky 26th of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

Big South: Asheville's Top 100 Duo One of Best, But Liberty a Balanced Threat

Liberty football is the best football school in the Big South, but lost badly Saturday to help turn almost all of the focus of these schools to basketball. Asheville is always dangerous and as one of the few schools in the country with two Top 100 players (out of 4000) they have a good chance to dethone a Wintrop team that must retool after an incredible 26-7 season.

Value Add projects the Asheville duo will be edged out by Liberty, the school that takes their charge to find converts to the Christian faith seriously. Longwood struggles on the court, but landed a coup when they hosted the Vice Presidential debate this year.

Here is where Value Add ranks each Big South team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams against all other schools (including behind the 129 FBS schools). Updates will be provided here.


Big South / 2017 SeedHoops 2017-18Football
Liberty109120
North Carolina Asheville120
Campbell168388
Gardner Webb194244
Radford211
Winthrop 13243
Charleston Southern283166
High Point312
Presbyterian317286
Longwood337

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.

Top 15 Big South PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
MaCio Teague 317.68North Carolina Asheville`6-03
Ahmad Thomas 146.88North Carolina Asheville`6-03
Ryan Kemrite 56.09Liberty`6-04
Chris Clemons6.00Campbell`5-09
Xavier Cooks 125.90Winthrop`6-08
Ed Polite 245.60Radford`6-05
Christian Keeling 114.70Charleston Southern`6-03
Georgie Pacheco-Ortiz 114.40Liberty`6-01
David Efianayi 114.20Gardner Webb`6-02
Jo'Vontae Millner 214.00Presbyterian`6-06
Anders Broman 103.42Winthrop`6-02
Isaiah Williams 113.19Liberty`6-01
Jamaal Robateau 03.14Gardner Webb`6-05
Kevin Vannatta 102.96North Carolina Asheville`6-02
Andrew Eudy 252.82Campbell`6-07

Ken Pomeroy ranked the Big South of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

Big Ten: Purdue and Michigan State Ready to Seek Hoops Title After Other Big Ten Teams Shoot for Football Title

The four Big Ten football teams in the Top 10 will not be looking ahead to basketball season, but after the beating Michigan State took Saturday their fans may join many in Purdue in thinking ahead to possible deep March Madness runs on the basketball court.

Value Add ranks Wisconsin's Ethan Happ as a potential National Player of the Year candidate as the No. 2 returning player in the country, and many believe Michigan State's Miles Bridges can take both Player of the Year and bring home another National Championship for Tom Izzo.

Here is where Value Add ranks each Big Tean team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams against all other schools. Updates will be provided here.

Big Ten / 2017 SeedHoops 2017-18Football
Purdue 4764
Michigan St. 91333
Minnesota 52826
Michigan 7294
Iowa3921
Maryland 64245
Northwestern 84546
Indiana5650
Wisconsin 86510
Penn St.706
Rutgers95103
Nebraska9859
Ohio St.1029
Illinois11769

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.

Top 15 Big Ten PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Ethan Happ 2210.65Wisconsin`6-10
Miles Bridges 229.90Michigan St.`6-07
Vincent Edwards 128.90Purdue`6-08
Moritz Wagner 138.70Michigan`6-11
Jaren Jackson8.20Michigan St.`6-10
Bryant McIntosh 308.00NorthWestern`6-03
Mike Watkins 247.78Penn St.`6-09
Nick Ward 447.27Michigan St.`6-08
Nate Mason 26.95Minnesota`6-02
Dakota Mathias 316.56Purdue`6-04
Justin Jackson 216.55Maryland`6-07
Vince Edwards 126.44Purdue`6-08
Glynn Watson 56.30Nebraska`6-00
Nicholas Baer 516.26Iowa`6-07
Jae'Sean Tate 16.25Ohio St.`6-04

Ken Pomeroy ranked the Big Ten 4th of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

Big West Teams All Get to Visit Hawaii While Settling Balanced Hoops Season

The conference of teams that get to travel to Hawaii every regular season is the hardest to predict this season, after three of the teams finish football seasons including Hawaii at the FBS level and Cal Poly and Cal Davis in FCS.

Value Add projects Chima Moneke as potential Player of the Year after begin voted newcomer of the year as Cal Davis made their first NCAA tournament. However, he lost four of the top five scoring teammates, which could lead to a drop well down the balanced conference. Every team plays one game in Hawaii. While the conference has solid players, none are in the top 10 percent of all players.

Here is where Value Add ranks each Big West team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams against all other schools (including behind the 129 FBS schools). Updates will be provided here.

Big West / 2017 SeedHoops 2017-18Football
Cal Santa Barbara149
Cal Irvine159
Hawaii210107
Cal St. Fullerton239
Long Beach St.247
Cal St. Northridge262
Cal Poly280185
Cal Riverside305
Cal Davis 16320133

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.

Top 15 Big West PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Tavrion Dawson 44.20Cal St. Northridge`6-08
Chima Moneke 114.11UC Davis`6-06
Marcus Jackson 223.75UC Santa Barbara`6-03
Tommy Rutherford 423.41UC Irvine`6-08
Jack Purchase 123.30Hawaii`6-08
Jack Purchase 123.30Hawaii`6-08
Menno Dijkstra 323.06UC Riverside`7-00
Jonathan Galloway 52.96UC Irvine`6-10
Evan Payne 12.85Long Beach St.`6-01
Gibson Johnson 212.66Hawaii`6-08
Temidayo Yussuf 42.50Long Beach St.`6-07
Jackson Rowe 342.42Cal St. Fullerton`6-07
Gabe Levin 02.40Long Beach St.`6-07
Micheal Warren 12.39Cal St. Northridge`6-05
Austen Awosika 102.28Cal St. Fullerton`6-03

Ken Pomeroy ranked the Big West 29th bestof 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

CAA: After JMU Football, Charleston and Elon Should Battle for March Madness Bid

James Madison is good enough to win the FCS Championship, before potentially dropping to the bottom of the basketball standings in the Colonial Athletic Association.

Value Add projects two conference players among the 25 best in the country in Joe Chealey of the conference favorite College of Charleston and Devontae Cacok of UNC Wilmington. Elon looks like the toughest challenger for the title after Wilmington's incredible 29-6 team that was a 12-seed may fall off due to graduating players.

Here is where Value Add ranks each Colonial Athletic team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams against all other schools (including behind the 129 FBS schools). James Madison is better than MOST of the FBS schools in football. Updates will be provided here.



CAA / 2017 SeedHoops 2017-18Football
College of Charleston77
Elon106173
Towson145161
William & Mary146149
Hofstra148
Northeastern154
Drexel183
North Carolina Wilmington 12189
Delaware254155
James Madison34852

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.


Top 15 CAA PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Joe Chealey 139.29College of Charleston`6-04
Devontae Cacok 158.75UNC Wilmington`6-07
Justin Wright-Foreman 35.59Hofstra`6-01
Tyler Seibring 415.27Elon`6-08
Grant Riller 15.16College of Charleston`6-03
Jarrell Brantley 54.92College of Charleston`6-07
Eli Pemberton 54.79Hofstra`6-04
Ryan Daly 04.64Delaware`6-04
Mike Morsell 234.56Towson`6-05
Brian Dawkins 04.51Elon`6-08
Nick Harris 234.33College of Charleston`6-10
Rokas Gustys 114.20Hofstra`6-09
Jack Whitman 414.16William & Mary`6-09
Dainan Swoope 133.78Elon`6-00
Kari Jonsson 123.66Drexel`6-03

Ken Pomeroy ranked the Colonial Athletic a very strong 12th of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

Conference USA: UAB Returns to Football Field While Future NBA Star Leads Middle Tennessee

UAB returned to the football field after the Board of the University of Alabama disbanded them, perhaps realizing Coach Nick Saban would not be there forever and UAB was posed about where TCU was relative to Texas at one point. The resultant 14-team Conference USA includes five solid football programs and four very good basketball programs led by Western Kentucky.

Value Add projects Middle Tennessee's Giddy Potts as a top 50 player in the country and the preseason Player of the Year, and Louisiana Tech's Jacobi Boykins and Western Kentucky's Mitchell Robinson, a potential early NBA pick, in the top three percent of all players in the country.

Here is where Value Add ranks each Conference USA team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams against all other schools. Updates will be provided here.

CUSA / 2017 SeedHoops 2017-18Football
Western Kentucky5978
Old Dominion8984
Middle Tennessee 1294104
Louisiana Tech10572
Marshall176115
UAB221138
Southern Miss22895
UTSA23880
North Texas251146
Florida Atlantic259136
Charlotte267169
FIU275157
Rice313144

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.

Top 15 CUSA PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Giddy Potts 207.90Middle Tennessee`6-02
Jacobi Boykins7.19Louisiana Tech`6-06
Mitchell Robinson6.71Western Kentucky`6-11
William Lee 346.20UAB`6-09
Justin Johnson 236.07Western Kentucky`6-07
Jon Elmore 335.70Marshall`6-03
Darius Thompson 515.49Western Kentucky`6-04
Jon Davis 35.30Charlotte`6-03
Brandan Stith 255.15Old Dominion`6-07
Chris Cokley 34.92UAB`6-08
DaQuan Bracey 44.90Louisiana Tech`5-11
Ahmad Caver 44.80Old Dominion`6-02
Payton Hulsey 34.54Florida International`6-05
Tyrik Dixon 04.50Middle Tennessee`6-01
Omega Harris 24.20Texas El Paso`6-03

Ken Pomeroy ranked the Sun Belt 15th of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

Horizon League: Hayes Leads 4 Oakland Stars to Potential Title

Jalen Hayes is the big star and leads the best team, Oakland, in the Horizon League that thankfully makes the regular season matter by awarding home court advantage in their tournament. The only school with a football team is a very good FCS team Youngstown State, so it is all basketball for the rest of the Horizon.

Value Add projects Hayes in the top three percent of all players (105th of 4000), but more impressively four of the six Horizon League players in the top 10 percent of all players are on the Oakland squad. While Northern Kentucky pulled the upset to take the title and March Madness bid this year and can still be tough, Oakland has put more distance between themselves and the rest of the League and second place Valparaiso left for the Missouri Valley Conference.

Here is where Value Add ranks each Summit League team for the season, and the Massey Rankings ranking for Youngstown is 86th - ahead of many FBS schools and almost all FCS schools. Updates will be provided here.


Horizon / 2017 seedHoops 2017-18Football
Oakland58
Illinois Chicago121
Northern Kentucky 15128
Cleveland St.213
Wright St.219
Detroit236
Milwaukee244
Youngstown St.28786
Green Bay340

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.


Top 15 Horizon PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Jalen Hayes 46.76Oakland`6-07
Grant Benzinger 135.05Wright St.`6-03
Kendrick Nunn 254.99Oakland`6-03
Martez Walker 354.89Oakland`6-06
Drew McDonald 344.88Northern Kentucky`6-07
Isaiah Brock 104.77Oakland`6-08
Carson Williams 234.49Northern Kentucky`6-05
Cameron Morse 244.40Youngstown St.`6-02
Dikembe Dixson 104.20Illinois Chicago`6-07
Tai Odiase 214.11Illinois Chicago`6-09
Justin Mitchell 13.73Wright St.`6-04
Corey Allen 13.60Detroit`6-03
Brock Stull 33.48Wisconsin Milwaukee`6-04
Brett Prahl 503.45Wisconsin Milwaukee`6-09
Lavone Holland 303.40Northern Kentucky`6-01

Ken Pomeroy ranked the Summit League with Valpo 16th of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

Ivy League: Princeton Builds on 23-7 Season to try to hold off Harvard and Yale for Title

The only Division 1 League that does not give scholarships and only plays games on Friday and Saturday night to make sure there students are studying boasts three top 100 basketball teams (out of 351), putting their basketball programs well ahead of Ivy League football.

Value Add projects Harvard and Yale nudging ahead of a very strong defending champion and 12-seed in Princeton, but the three are all well ahead of the rest of the League. Princeton's duo of Devin Cannady and Myles Stephens are the two most valuable returning players in the league, according to Value Add.

Here is where Value Add ranks each Ivy League team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams against all other schools (including behind the 129 FBS schools).  Princeton's passing game gives them the top football squad so far. Updates will be provided here.


Ivy / 2017 seedHoops 2017-18Football
Harvard87210
Yale91193
Princeton 1296152
Cornell150253
Penn177175
Dartmouth180203
Columbia224229
Brown321235

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.

Top 15 Ivy League PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Devin Cannady 36.27Princeton`6-01
Myles Stephens 125.40Princeton`6-05
Matthew Morgan5.20Cornell`6-03
Chris Lewis 04.75Harvard`6-09
AJ Brodeur 254.71Pennsylvania`6-08
Makai Mason 114.70Yale`6-01
Matt Morgan 104.50Cornell`6-02
Bryce Aiken 114.30Harvard`6-00
Seth Towns 314.10Harvard`6-07
Miye Oni 244.05Yale`6-06
Mike Smith 123.70Columbia`5-11
Justin Bassey 203.61Harvard`6-05
Evan Boudreaux 123.50Dartmouth`6-08
Alex Copeland 33.46Yale`6-03

Ken Pomeroy ranked the Ivy League the 18th best of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

MAAC: Iona Once Again Team to Beat with Edogi Transferring to Join McGill

Only two teams play football, but when it comes to March Madness Iona could be a scary first round match-up once again. Ricky McGill was joined by Tulsa transfer TK Edogi to give them a devastating duo that could yield another top 100 team.

Value Add projects Fairfield's Tyler Nelson as the preseason Player of the Year, ranking in the top three percent of all layers (117th out of more than 4,000).

Here is where Value Add ranks each MAAC team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams against all other schools (including behind the 129 FBS schools). Updates will be provided here.


MAAC / 2017 seedHoops 2017-18Football
Iona 14101
Niagara160
Manhattan173
Fairfield245
Monmouth249202
Saint Peter's255
Canisius264
Marist285325
Siena294
Rider318
Quinnipiac329

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.


Top 15 MAAC PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Tyler Nelson 36.65Fairfield`6-03
Rickey McGill 05.07Iona`6-01
Zane Waterman 44.60Manhattan`6-09
Matt Scott 134.18Niagara`6-04
Nick Griffin 04.11St. Peter's`6-02
Jermaine Crumpton 24.02Canisius`6-06
TK Edogi 143.86Iona`6-08
Kahlil Dukes 103.66Niagara`6-00
Austin Tilghman 233.63Monmouth`6-01
Zavier Turner 33.60Manhattan`5-09
Sam Idowu 233.59St. Peter's`6-07
Devine Eke 53.52Rider`6-07
EJ Crawford 23.12Iona`6-06
Jonathan Kasibabu 133.11Fairfield`6-08
Micah Seaborn 103.10Monmouth`6-05

Ken Pomeroy ranked the MAAC 19th of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

Mid-Eastern Athletic's Morgan State Favorite to Dethrone NC Central Behind POY Kendley

North Carolina A&T is the top ranked football program, while Morgan State seems to return the top basketball talent.

Value Add spots an unheralded North Carolina Central player Pablo Rivas as the most valuable, even though he played less than half of the time. He is a strong shot blocker and defensive rebounder, and made 27 of his last 33 two-point shots to help North Carolina Central win the conference championship to cap a 25-9 season. However, Morgan State's Tiwian Kendley should be the actual leading candidate for Player of the Year.

Here is where Value Add ranks each Mid-Eastern Athletic team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams against all other schools (including behind the 129 FBS schools). Updates will be provided here.


MEAC / 2017 SeedHoops 2017-18Football
Morgan St.191302
North Carolina A&T198153
Hampton273264
Norfolk St.278294
South Carolina St.279228
Florida A&M288276
Savannah St.331301
Delaware St.332348
North Carolina Central 16333200
Howard339232
Coppin St.345
Maryland Eastern Shore350
Bethune Cookman351217

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.


Top 15 MEAC PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Pablo Rivas 134.39North Carolina Central`6-06
Tiwian Kendley 54.00Morgan St.`6-05
Zaynah Robinson 22.93Norfolk St.`5-11
Phillip Carr 222.89Morgan St.`6-07
Trevond Barnes 222.67Hampton`6-09
Tashombe Riley 22.56South Carolina St.`6-07
Brandon Tabb 32.51Bethune Cookman`6-05
Justin Ravenel 212.41Florida A&M`6-01
Dexter McClanahan 222.40Savannah St.`6-05
Ryan Andino 02.25Maryland Eastern Shore`6-02
Desmond Williams 02.20Florida A&M`6-06
Dejuan Clayton 131.97Coppin St.`6-02
Edward Stephens 11.95South Carolina St.`6-02
Davaris McGowens 01.71North Carolina A&T`6-07
Charles Williams 131.69Howard`6-04

Ken Pomeroy ranked the Mid-American 31st of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.