Thursday, January 17, 2019

Statis-Pro NL Season Continues With Current Rosters - Click to Play

The following standings result from playing the free Statis-Pro baseball game using these 2019 projected player cards for 1000+ potential MLB sorted by current rosters. Updates on the previous games through January 17, 2019 and reviews appear here.

Team Division W L GB Notes
Pirates NL Central 9 3 0  
Cubs NL Central 8 4 1  
Brewers NL Central 6 6 3  
Reds NL Central 5 7 4  
Cardinals NL Central 4 8 5  
           
Braves NL East 7 5 0  
Mets NL East 7 5 0  
Nationals NL East 7 5 0  
Phillies NL East 6 6 1  
Marlins NL East 3 9 4  
           
Diamondbacks NL West 9 3 0  
Padres NL West 8 4 1  
Dodgers NL West 5 7 4  
Giants NL West 5 7 4  
Rockies NL West 3 9 6  


In 2018, we played the imbalanced AL and the Red Sox, Yankees, Astros and Indians dominated to all finish between 36-24 and 38-32. However, the NL is incredibly balanced so every new acquisition gives another team a chance to emerge.

All-Conference Teams Announced for Entire US at Mid-Season

From the Big East to the Mountain West (top photo), see all 32 All-Conference teams, players of the year, offensive and defensive players of the year and freshman of the year through half the season.




Saturday, January 12, 2019

Duke's Zion' #1 Ranked Defender, #2 Offense After Howard's 53-pt Game

For those of you not on the sports email list, please like @valueaddsports and send an email to pudnerjohn@gmail.com with the subject field "add to sports email list." Here is te email sent the morning of Jan 12, 2019

Duke's Zion; #1 Ranked Defender, #2 Offense after Howard's 53-pt game

Inbox
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John Pudner, Value Add Sports via bluehornet.com 

11:35 AM (42 minutes ago)
to me
Duke's Zion Williamson ranks as the top defender of 4,088 college basketball players, and just missed being the only player to ever ranked as both the best offensive and defensive player in the country at the same time when Markus Howard's Big East record 53-point performance nudged him out for the top spot in the new Value Add Basketball rankings..
The rankings for all 4,088 players can be sorted by conference or team at www.valueaddbasketball.com, or on this google sheet for those who want to export the data, and you are free to reuse as long as your reference www.valueaddbasketball.com. To better able you to give credit to more players on your team or conference, we also noted any player who ranks as one of the top 500 defensive or offensive players in the notes column. We are working on a temporary glitch in the database that is causing each player to appear twice, so keep in mind if a players ranking is listed twice just cut the ratings in half (e.g. if ranking is 999 and 1000, he is really the 500th ranked player). A 9999 appears by any player who is not ranked.
The thing that sets the Value Add Basketball rankings apart from others is the calculation of how well players guard opponents as part of the ranking, which we outline using the pretty bad defense in the Marquette - Creighton game as a sample game. Please see the CBS Sports 247 story including the interview with Markus Howard by clicking on the image below, and this story also provides a sample table of how everything a player does in a game to help or hurt his team - including many mistakes such as the foul, turnovers and missed shots by Howard that were more than offset by his 44 positive plays during his 43 minutes on the court. For those of you who confuse Markus and me, it is true we are/were both Marquette journalism students, but I was the better shot blocker during my runs to the Marquette intramural Final Four and two more recent titles (Wetumpka YMCA, Montgomery YMCA) and he is the one with the top four scoring games - 53, 52, 45, 45 - in 101 years of actual Marquette basketball. After watching this interview and listening to my kids ridicule my jokes, I believe he is also a lot more funny than I am. The full disclosure that I am a Marquette fan is provided also with a note that the rankings for all seasons from 2002 to current are all based on the formulas I developed that were covered by Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and others, so my personal opinions do not impact any player's ranking whether he be at Marquette or my hometown Auburn or one of the other 351 Division 1 schools. See also the @valueaddsports Facebook or www.pudnersports.com blog for more information on my basketball and baseball projections. - John Pudner, 404.606.3163


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Calculating defensive rating for guarding opponents


In 2011, this post broke down the defensive calculations for the Value Add Basketball rankings for all college players from 2002 to the present. While the rankings received national praise, this continues to be the most underappreciated aspect of the rankings. While other systems rank a players defensive steals, blocked shots and defensive rebounds, they ignore the fact that these three together are less important than guarding your opponent and a player who scores a lot of points but allows opposing players to cut to the rim in 100-90 losses is not nearly as valuable as a player who scores even half as many points and helps his team pull out 50-40 wins.

Picking up on a recent CBS 247 site breakdown of Markus Howard's Big East record 53-point game against Creighton, below provides how the defensive rating is affected by the following calculations.

As good as Marquette’s defense has been this year, they were no match for Creighton’s
offensive scheme except for the absolute domination underneath led by Theo John’s blocks.
As good as the block he made while walling up was, his rejection off of the backboard so that it shot
back over four Creighton players in position was one of the best defensive plays I’ve ever seen.
We credit a blocked shot for taking 0.67 points away because 0.33 is reserved for the one-third
chance the offense gets the rebound. That block by John’s was worth the full 1.0 and even more
because he purposely blocked it so hard Creighton no longer has a chance for a rebound and in
fact he started the break the other way using the block like Wes Unseld use to use the outlet pass.


Running total
Figure
Explanation
4.85
4.85
More defensive rebounds than one-third of missed shot, worth one point each
(MU grabbed 29 of 35 CU misses, 4.85 more than typical 69%)
1.66
2.48
more blocks than typical based on number of 2-point shots taken worth
0.67 points each (CU 32 two-point shots typically result in 3.52 blocks,
but MU blocked 6)
-3.68
-3.68
more steals than expected based on trips down the court worth one point
each (MU 80 defensive possessions typical 5.68 steals, but only had 2 steals)

2.83

Total Points taken away (or added if a negative) based on blocks, steals and
rebounds
104.00

actual points scored by opponent
106.83

anticipated points allowed if if blocks, steals and defensive rebounds average
(total of the previous 2 numbers to reverse engineer)
82.16
80
how many points would have been scored if 1.027 per possessions in the game
-24.67

how good was the guarding defense based on points less than expected
not counting
blocks, steals and rebounds
-0.11
225
how good or bad (if negative) the guarding defense was after using the
number of minutes played in the game (200 if ends in regulation, add 25
for each overtime)
-4.72
43
based on the players minutes played, how many points did the player take
away or add with good or bad defense
A couple of other follow-ups to this post on the Marquette CBS 247 page is the following list of the
only possible plays in a game that Markus Howard did NOT have during the game and how
valuable each of those plays is.

Only things Markus Howard did NOT do in game
Value
Made 2-point show and drew foul (unassisted)
1.67
Made 2-point show and drew foul (assisted)
1.33
Steal
1
Draw 3-shot foul
1
Offensive Rebound
0.67
Draw 1-and-1 foul shots
0.11
Foul drawn but no free throws
0.1

Missed deadball FT, no rebound chance
-0.67
Miss front end of 1-and-1
-0.74

It appears the one thing a player can do that hurts their team the most in all of basketball is missing the front end of a 1-and-1, since an average free throw shooter scores 1.11 points per one-on-one opportunity, so in the just under 3 out of 9 times the front end is missed it means the player secured 0.00 or the average 1.11 points. However, because the team does have a one-third chance of an offensive rebound, there is a chance the get the miss and score so it counts as a -0.74. We do not have a way to break down the slightly lower chance of an offensive rebound on a free throw miss verses and attempted field goal.


Saturday, January 5, 2019

Statis-Pro Setup of Game with Greinke vs. Springer Sample Result

Here is how I set up the Statis-Pro baseball game, showing a game I just played between the Houston Astros and Arizona Diamondbacks that is in the game log. I actually show the components of both the traditional Fast Action Card version which I use for most games, but also the components to play the free dice version I use when I travel - which you can use if you do not have a fast action deck.





Statis-Pro Baseball Options for Play

1.   Top: EITHER Statis-Pro Player cards OR Statis-Pro sheets with player on each row (note the Astros batters are top left, and we keep a business card under the batter - George Springer - and another under pitcher for the Diamondbacks in the bottom right – in this case Zack Greinke)

2.   Bottom Right: EITHER Fast Action Cards (FAC) OR 5 Dice. We stopped for this photo after a “9” by the PB on the red FAC card (which in the dice version would have been the same as rolling the 9 as shown) meant Greinke could not keep the action in his PB2-8 range so the next card’s RN would refer to Springer’s sheet, and with the RN coming up a “26” on that card (which would have been the same as rolling a green “2” and white “6” on the 8-sided dice for “26” if we were playing the dice version) resulted in a home run (Springer’s highest double number in the row is “25”, he has no triples, and his highest home run is “32” so 26 falls in the homer range.

3.   Bottom Left: IF Fast Action Cards THEN Out Charts A – C, BUT IF dice THEN Printed Out Charts for 1-20. In this case if the result had been an “Out” instead of a home run the FAC shows the play was a “G3” (ground out to first) which would have also resulted in the dice version if the 20-sided die read “4” as shown by that chart.

4.   Right: EITHER scoresheet OR just a sheet of paper to record line-ups and results

Sunday, December 30, 2018

Top 100 Defensive Players in College Basketball

Here are the top 100 defenders in college basketball based on calculations at www.valueaddbasketball.com as of December 29, 2018. These are the personal AdjD calculations, which tells you how much each player lowers his team's AdjD at www.kenpom.com. This system was developed in 2011 and explained in this post and has undergone only minor adjustments.


RnkTop 100 DefendersTeamHeightConfClassAdjD
1Matisse ThybulleWashington6-foot-5P124 Sr-4.45
2Ethan HappWisconsin6-foot-10B104 Sr-4.32
3Zion WilliamsonDuke6-foot-7ACC1 Fr-4.14
4Nicolas ClaxtonGeorgia6-foot-11SEC2 So-4.11
5Dedric LawsonKansas6-foot-9B123 Jr-4.04
6Tyler BeyColorado6-foot-7P122 So-3.89
7Matt MooneyTexas Tech6-foot-3B124 Sr-3.8
8Bruno FernandoMaryland6-foot-10B102 So-3.72
9Jon TeskeMichigan7-foot-1B103 Jr-3.68
10Matt RaffertyFurman6-foot-8SC4 Sr-3.61
11Ty JeromeVirginia6-foot-5ACC3 Jr-3.59
12Ed PoliteRadford6-foot-5BSth4 Sr-3.57
13Brandon ClarkeGonzaga6-foot-8WCC3 Jr-3.5
14Jordan MurphyMinnesota6-foot-7B104 Sr-3.48
15Aric HolmanMississippi St.6-foot-10SEC4 Sr-3.46
16Daniel GaffordArkansas6-foot-11SEC2 So-3.41
17Brandon GilbeckWestern Illinois7-foot-0Sum4 Sr-3.4
18Xavier TillmanMichigan St.6-foot-8B102 So-3.39
19Jeromy RodriguezEast Tennessee St.6-foot-7SC3 Jr-3.33
20Trent ForrestFlorida St.6-foot-4ACC3 Jr-3.29
21Braxton KeyVirginia6-foot-8ACC3 Jr-3.28
22Josh ReavesPenn St.6-foot-5B104 Sr-3.24
23Bol BolOregon7-foot-2P121 Fr-3.22
24Cortez EdwardsSouthern Mississippi6-foot-2CUSA4 Sr-3.18
25Kevarrius HayesFlorida7-foot-9SEC4 Sr-3.13
26Zavier SimpsonMichigan7-foot-0B103 Jr-3.12
27Grant WilliamsTennessee6-foot-7SEC3 Jr-3.1
28Chuma OkekeAuburn6-foot-8SEC2 So-3.1
29Ebuka IzunduMiami FL6-foot-10ACC4 Sr-3.08
30Barry BrownKansas St.6-foot-3B124 Sr-3.07
31Nick RakocevicSouthern California6-foot-11P123 Jr-3.07
32Kylor KelleyOregon St.7-foot-0P123 Jr-3.06
33Nickeil Alexander-WalkerVirginia Tech6-foot-5ACC2 So-3.06
34Nate GrimesFresno St.6-foot-8MWC3 Jr-3.05
35Charles BasseyWestern Kentucky6-foot-11CUSA1 Fr-3.04
36Tariq OwensTexas Tech6-foot-10B124 Sr-3.03
37Dylan WindlerBelmont6-foot-8OVC4 Sr-2.98
38Jordan NworaLouisville6-foot-7ACC2 So-2.95
39Marcus Santos-SilvaVirginia Commonwealth6-foot-7A102 So-2.92
40Alpha DialloProvidence6-foot-7BE3 Jr-2.91
41Dhamir Cosby-RoundtreeVillanova6-foot-9BE2 So-2.89
42Dylan OsetkowskiTexas6-foot-9B124 Sr-2.87
43Cameron KrutwigLoyola Chicago6-foot-9MVC2 So-2.87
44RJ WilliamsBoise St.6-foot-7MWC2 So-2.87
45Isaiah RobyNebraska6-foot-8B103 Jr-2.86
46Nate RenfroSan Francisco6-foot-8WCC4 Sr-2.86
47Javon BessSt. Louis6-foot-6A104 Sr-2.84
48King McClureBaylor6-foot-3B124 Sr-2.82
49Tre'Shawn ThurmanNevada6-foot-8MWC4 Sr-2.81
50Tristan ClarkBaylor6-foot-9B122 So-2.77
51Kamar BaldwinButler6-foot-1BE3 Jr-2.76
52Shaq BuchananMurray St.6-foot-3OVC4 Sr-2.75
53Elijah ChildsBradley6-foot-7MVC2 So-2.74
54Neemias QuetaUtah St.6-foot-11MWC1 Fr-2.74
55BJ StithOld Dominion6-foot-5CUSA4 Sr-2.73
56Jehyve FloydHoly Cross6-foot-8Pat4 Sr-2.72
57Xavier SneedKansas St.6-foot-5B123 Jr-2.72
58Talen Horton-TuckerIowa St.6-foot-4B121 Fr-2.71
59PJ WashingtonKentucky6-foot-8SEC2 So-2.7
60Zylan CheathamArizona St.6-foot-8P124 Sr-2.69
61Tacko FallCentral Florida7-foot-6Amer4 Sr-2.66
62Alexis YetnaSouth Florida6-foot-8Amer1 Fr-2.64
63Tres TinkleOregon St.6-foot-8P123 Jr-2.63
64Juwan MorganIndiana6-foot-8B104 Sr-2.62
65Jaime EcheniqueWichita St.6-foot-11Amer3 Jr-2.62
66Tyrese HaliburtonIowa St.6-foot-5B121 Fr-2.59
67Trhae MitchellSouth Alabama6-foot-6SB3 Jr-2.58
68Oshae BrissettSyracuse6-foot-8ACC2 So-2.56
69Keith BraxtonSt. Francis PA6-foot-5NEC3 Jr-2.55
70Jordan GoodwinSt. Louis6-foot-3A102 So-2.53
71Jarrett CulverTexas Tech6-foot-6B122 So-2.52
72Brekkott ChapmanWeber St.6-foot-9BSky4 Sr-2.52
73Anthony LawrenceMiami FL6-foot-7ACC4 Sr-2.52
74Charles MatthewsMichigan6-foot-6B104 Sr-2.52
75Alex PeacockTexas St.6-foot-7SB4 Sr-2.51
76Jack WhiteDuke6-foot-7ACC3 Jr-2.5
77Brady ManekOklahoma6-foot-9B122 So-2.49
78Elston JonesUC Irvine6-foot-9BW4 Sr-2.49
79Kenny GoinsMichigan St.6-foot-7B104 Sr-2.49
80Nick MuszynskiBelmont6-foot-11OVC1 Fr-2.49
81Doug TaylorOhio6-foot-9MAC4 Sr-2.48
82Tamenang ChohBrown6-foot-5Ivy2 So-2.47
83Nate Pierre-LouisTemple6-foot-4Amer2 So-2.46
84Osun OsunniyiSt. Bonaventure6-foot-10A101 Fr-2.44
85Paschal ChukwuSyracuse7-foot-2ACC4 Sr-2.43
86Chuba OhamsFordham6-foot-8A103 Jr-2.43
87Mark VitalBaylor6-foot-5B122 So-2.42
88Sagaba KonateWest Virginia6-foot-8B123 Jr-2.41
89Elijah Mitrou-LongTexas6-foot-1B123 Jr-2.41
90Donta HallAlabama6-foot-9SEC4 Sr-2.39
91Kaleb WessonOhio St.6-foot-9B102 So-2.38
92Jarrell BrantleyCharleston Southern6-foot-7BSth4 Sr-2.37
93Elijah ThomasClemson6-foot-9ACC4 Sr-2.36
94Isaiah LiversMichigan6-foot-7B102 So-2.36
95Chris SilvaSouth Carolina6-foot-9SEC4 Sr-2.34
96Jaxson HayesTexas6-foot-11B121 Fr-2.34
97Luke MayeNorth Carolina6-foot-8ACC4 Sr-2.33
98Chase JeterArizona6-foot-10P123 Jr-2.33
99James BanksGeorgia Tech6-foot-9ACC3 Jr-2.32
100Jason BurnellJacksonville St.6-foot-7OVC4 Sr-2.32

Value Add Basketball Year End Player Calculations

This email went out to our sports list the morning of December 30. To be added to the list, email pudnerjohn@gmail.com with "add to sports list" in the subject field.

Of the 4,095 college players to take the court this season, Dedric Lawson's ability to improve Kansas an average of 13.29 points per game on offense and defense makes him the most valuable player in the country - and here are the 20 most valuable listed at www.valueaddbasketball.com. Look for the CBS 247 story on the top 8 match-up between St. John's Shamorie Ponds and Marquette's Markus Howard, who just scored 62 points in a 29 minute stretch on 13 of 15 three-pointers and 13 of 13 free throws to shoot up the 6th.

RnkPlayerTeamValue Add/GameConfClass3-pts and Games
1Dedric LawsonKansas13.29B123 Jr4 3-pts in 11 Gms
2Zion WilliamsonDuke12.30ACC1 Fr3 3-pts in 12 Gms
3Grant WilliamsTennessee11.69SEC3 Jr6 3-pts in 11 Gms
4Jarrett CulverTexas Tech11.03B122 So19 3-pts in 12 Gms
5Ethan HappWisconsin10.91B104 Sr0 3-pts in 12 Gms
6Markus HowardMarquette10.9BE3 Jr49 3-pts in 13 Gms
7Juwan MorganIndiana10.67B104 Sr13 3-pts in 13 Gms
8Shamorie PondsSt. John's10.27BE3 Jr22 3-pts in 13 Gms
9Tristan ClarkBaylor10.21B122 So1 3-pts in 11 Gms
10Ja MorantMurray St.10.16OVC2 So13 3-pts in 9 Gms
11Ebuka IzunduMiami FL10.13ACC4 Sr1 3-pts in 11 Gms
12Brandon ClarkeGonzaga10.13WCC3 Jr2 3-pts in 14 Gms
13Javon BessSt. Louis9.9A104 Sr25 3-pts in 12 Gms
14Ty JeromeVirginia9.54ACC3 Jr26 3-pts in 11 Gms
15Carsen EdwardsPurdue9.44B103 Jr47 3-pts in 12 Gms
16Matt MorganCornell9.14Ivy4 Sr38 3-pts in 11 Gms
17Ahmad CaverOld Dominion9.09CUSA4 Sr28 3-pts in 13 Gms
18De'Andre HunterVirginia9.02ACC2 So11 3-pts in 11 Gms
19Nickeil Alexander-WalkerVirginia Tech8.99ACC2 So22 3-pts in 11 Gms
20Myles PowellSeton Hall8.97BE3 Jr41 3-pts in 13 Gms

In addition to the CBS Sports 247 site, keep up with this blog for coverage of the Value Add Basketball rankings and Statis-Pro baseball projections all year. You can sort www.valueaddbasketball.com by team, conference or even click for past projections and seasons. Click here for the explanation of the Value Add basketball and how it calculates how much worse a teams average score would be if the player were replaced by a bench player on a mediocre team.

The top 5 defensive players in the country, based on their personal AdjD points by which they lower their teams www.kenpom.com rating.

Top 5 Defensive Players State Points stopped AdjD
Matisse Thybulle Washington -4.45
Ethan Happ Wisconsin -4.32
Zion Williamson Duke -4.14
Nicolas Claxton Georgia -4.11
Dedric Lawson Kansas -4.04