Wednesday, October 5, 2022

Statis-Pro Playoff Teams Settled - Only Blue Jays Exceeded Actual MLB Team

The Chicago White Sox won a thrilled 4-3 season finale to finish the season 30-30 in Statis-Pro, exactly matching their 81-81 .500 campaign in the real season. However, in our season .500 was good enough to snag the 6th and final playoff spot, while in actual play that left them short. Here are our standings, with only the Yankees, Twins and Guardians still scheduled to face the Orioles to determine which of them gets the other bye spot besides Toronto.

Because it is an 11-team lead, these 11 do not get to play the 4 teams we left out of the league, which combined for a .400 record. Therefore each team in this league should finish .041 percent lower in the Statis-Pro season then their real team.

Each team actually plays only 20 games - 2 against each of the other 10 - so you would expect a wide margin of error between Statis-Pro and actual results.

However, pending those final three series, 6 of the 11 teams had very similar records in Statis-Pro to actual MLB play. 

The two teams that played better in Statis-Pro were the Blue Jays and Twins - in green.

The three teams that played worse were the Mariners, Rays and Orioles.

Holy Cow - White Socks Sweep; 1 Game from Bouncing Red Sox from Playoffs

 Developing ... After hearing the Orioles 11-4 for a sweep, the White Sox need only win their finale to finish ahead of the Red Sox for the last playoff spot.

6th - Final Playoff Spot - 28-29

7th - Red Sox - 29-31 (does have tie-breaker)

Jimenez and Abreu hit 2 homers each Cease struck out 11 in 5 innings, and Bummer came in with bases loaded in the 7th to preserve the sweep.

The season finale was a more classic 4-3 decision where speed mattered - with the playoffs determined in the last inning. The White Sox to the 9th for one of the best relievers in the game - Liam Hendriks.

However he walked two, and Brett Phillips came in as a pinch runner coming off his 14 steals last year that made him a fast obr-sp A-A.

Anthony Santander came in with a chance to drive him home but was called out on a 46, which we consider a check swing barely called a strike out and one spot from a walk. Hendrik also struck out odor for a 4-3 win, 30-30 record, and the last playoff spot!

2nd game to come - Red Sox can only wait.

Tuesday, October 4, 2022

Alternate Reality - White Sox chance to catch Red Sox

Our alternate reality 2022 AL MLB season already produced the Dodgers as NL champs using the Statis-Pro baseball game using these 2022 Protected Batters, and 2022 Projected Pitchers for Arizona to Miami and then Milwaukee to Washington

We played the NL out a few months ago with the Braves stunning the Mets to make it to the NL series before falling to the Dodgers - at the time seeming Statis-Pro alternate reality was way off since the Mets had a 10 game lead. However tonight in real baseball the Braves did in fact match their Statis-Pro feat by clinching against the Mets to match their Statis-Pro success.

On the AL side nether the Red Sox or White Sox made the playoffs in the real MLB. They are also both below .500 in Statis-Pro, but tonight the Red Sox continues their collapse, losing two the Orioles to finish 29-31. That gives the White Sox a chance to pass them and make the playoffs (in all likelihood) if they beat the Orioles 5 games to 1 to finish 30-30.

The Orioles projected as a basement dweller and this not included in my 10 team league, but their stunning regular season success led us to make them an 11th team to give each of the other teams an 10th series.

Cedric Mullins continued to star with a 5 of 8 series, 2 walks, a homer and a double to stun the Red Sox 8-7 and 8-6 in Fenway to be a solid 10-14 in their series so far.

If the White Sox can blitz two PB 2-5 starters Orioles starters for at least one sweep (win after leading by at least 5 runs after 8 innings) and win the other game of the 2-game series, they pass the Red Sox. Anything less and they are eliminated and the Red Sox grab the last playoff spot.

Saturday, October 1, 2022

Top 18 Statis-Pro Pitcher Cards for 2022 Season

We presented the 10 most improved Statis-Pro batter cards, and today we present two sheets of the top 18 Statis-Pro pitcher cards based on this season's stats. All of these pitchers have the highest PB (Pitcher or Batter) rating of PB: 2-9, meaning they control the action 83% of the time on rolls of 2-9 and only allows it on the batter's card on 10-12. 

While PB is determined by ERA or FiPs, we only considered players that either qualified with enough innings pitched, or had at least 20 saves. We will still use all of the 2022 Project Cards as we finish up our regular season, but will insert these cards and the 10 most improved cards for teams who make our playoffs.

Aaron Judge is obviously the most improved card with an 24-36 home run range on his card. 

The best pitcher card below is either Paul Sewald, who allows hits only on an 11-17 and walks only on a 43-47, or the Mets Edwin Diaz who allows one more hit but then has an incredible 22-61 strikeout range and then a 62-66 for a walk. Of course he is a reliever so can only pitch one inning, so the most valuable card is likely Justin Verlander, who can go up to 7 innings with hits only allowed on 11-22 and a 45-47 for walks. The most valuable player in this stack overall however is Ohtani, who adds his PB 2-9 pitching card to go along with one of the best hitting cards.

The cards are alphabetical by team, so you can look to see if your team has one of the top pictures.

Statis-Pro 2022 Season Warp with Just a Few Series Left

Some notes as we wrap-up the 2021 season using the Statis-Pro baseball. This season was played using these 2022 Protected Batters, and 2022 Projected Pitchers for Arizona to Miami and then Milwaukee to Washington. Occasionally we added some fun with this chart for unusual "Z-plays.

We've played 96 games, and the 95th game included the first 20-run game with the Blue Jays beating the Red Sox 22-1. The Blue Jays won the second game 9-3 to become the first team all season to "sweep" both games in our 48 double header series. Overall 27 of the 96 games were sweeps. To get credit for a sweep in our league a team must lead by at least 5-runs at the end of the 8th inning without using their closer through 8 innings. When a team does this they get credit for winning a 3-game series 3-0, while all other games count as a 2 games to 1 win. Our series were swept 28% of all games (27 of 96), once again very close to the percent of the time a team wins the first 3 games of a series. (notes further down on how Toronto fought through the 2nd sweep.

The expanding standings below show the Blue Jays and Yankees have actually tied for the exact same record at 12-6, but because the Blue Jays have now swept 7 series and never been swept to get a 37-17 record, while the Yankees have swept 3 and been swept 2 times to have a 31-23 record.

We pick the projected top 10 teams in one league at the beginning of the season (we rotate each year, but this year is AL) and this sheet tracks their series and each team plays the other nine in a double headers, so the Blue Jays were the first to get credit for going 6-0 in a series.

Near the end of the year we pick one of the five "relegated" teams that have overachieved this year - and the Baltimore Orioles were the no-brainer this year - and we play them as needed to let the other teams all get their top four starting pitchers five starts on the season. The only remaining series will be a team against the Orioles.

The Orioles did play the Astros, Mariners and Rays. Next we will/may play:

Orioles vs. Red Sox - The Red Sox still have the 6th and final spot in the playoff. If they go at least 4-2 against the Orioles then the clinch a playoff spot because the White Sox and LA Angels can no longer catch them even if they went 6-0 against the Orioles. If the Red Sox go at least 2-4 against the Orioles then the Angels cannot catch them and the Angels would be completely eliminated. The Angels actually went 4-14, but two of their four wins were "sweeps."

The other two teams who still need to play the Orioles in order to clinch a playoff spot are:

Orioles vs. Guardians - Cleveland must go at least 3-3 to guarantee they beat out the White Sox, but lose the tie-breaker if the White Sox catch them (the two went 3-3, but our next tie-breaker is better record against the top team, and Chicago went 2-4 against the Blue Jays while Cleveland went 1-5).

Orioles vs. Twins - The Twins need to go at least 2-4 to assure they beat out the White Sox and make the playoffs.

The White Sox will only play their series against the Orioles if they still have a chance to make the playoffs after the three series above.

The Angels will only play their series against the Orioles if Cleveland went 1-5 or 0-6 to give them a longshot chance to make the playoffs with a 6-0 or 5-1 record.

The Yankees will play their series just to determine if they are the second team to get a bye (Toronto has clinched one bye).

The playoffs will be the same as MLB playoffs this year with the 3rd through 6th place teams playing 3-game series at the home of the higher seeds, while the Toronto and the No. 2 seed get byes.

For the playoffs, we will use the cards for the 10 most improved batters and pitchers this season, but all other cards being used are the 2022 projected cards - whether or not the player actually had a better or worst year than projected. So yes, Aaron Judge's incredible 24-36 home run range in this card will be used in the playoffs.

Row LabelsWLWin %GBRunsAllowWin %Actual record and extra credit for sweeps
Toronto37-170.685106.24.10.685Act Rec: 12 - 6, 7 sweeps & 0 times swept.
NY Yankees31-230.57444.33.40.574Act Rec: 12 - 6, 3 sweeps & 2 times swept.
Minnesota30-240.55634.34.10.556Act Rec: 11 - 7, 3 sweeps & 2 times swept.
Cleveland29-250.53724.33.80.537Act Rec: 10 - 8, 3 sweeps & 2 times swept.
Houston32-280.53325.54.40.533Act Rec: 11 - 9, 4 sweeps & 3 times swept.
Boston27-270.50004.74.60.500Act Rec: 10 - 8, 2 sweeps & 3 times swept.
Chicago WS25-290.463- Rec: 9 - 9, 1 sweeps & 3 times swept.
LA Angels23-310.426-445.50.426Act Rec: 4 - 14, 2 sweeps & 1 times swept.
Seattle25-350.417-5450.417Act Rec: 7 - 13, 2 sweeps & 4 times swept.
Tampa Bay23-370.383- Rec: 8 - 12, 0 sweeps & 5 times swept.
Baltimore6-120.333- Rec: 2 - 4, 0 sweeps & 2 times swept.

Red Sox Destroyed 22-1 to crack door open for White Sox

 White Sox needed the Red Sox to struggle to keep playoff hopes alive. Boston had overcome very weak pitching cards by winning high scoring wins for the most surprising record in our league - 27-21.

Make that 27-24 after losing a "sweep" game in our most lopsided Statis-Pro game of our season - a 22-1 loss to the Blue Jays. Guerrero, Hernandez and Jansen hit two of the Jays 9 homers, and they had 22 hits to 4 for the Jays.

Into game 2 ...not quite as lopsided but a 9-3 win for another sweep, and the Red Sox are 27-27.

Z-play wild throw on bunt single jump starts Mariners

 In nightcap, the ChiSox shelled Luis Castillo to take a 6-2 lead after 3 inning on the verge of a sweep, but blew it for an 8-7 lead.

One of the few A/AA super fast players in the league dropped down a bunt with runners on first and second, and a wild through by Grandal lead to the first 2 Mariners runs.

With the split, the Blue Jays, Yankees and Astros clinch playoff spots because the best case for the White Sox is 31 wins, and they Yankees and Blues already have 31 wins and the tie-breaker against the White Sox, and the Astros have 32 wins.

The White Sox still are a longshot to catch the Red Sox, Twins or Guardians for the last playoff spot.

The Angels are technically alive to catch the Red Sox, but Boston would have to go 1-11 and the Angels go 6-0, or Boston go 0-12 and the White Sox go 5-1.

Statis-Pro StandingsWLGBWin%Final Wins
Toronto - clinched311750.64631 to 43
NY Yankees - clinched312320.57431 to 37
Boston272110.56327 to 39
Minnesota302410.55630 to 36
Cleveland292500.53729 to 35
Houston - clinched322800.53332 to 32
Chicago White Sox2529-40.46325 to 31
LA Angels2331-60.42623 to 29
Seattle - elim2535-70.41725 to 25 
Tampa Bay - elim2337-90.38323 to 23 
Baltimore - as needed612-50.333