Monday, March 18, 2024

UConn Also No. 1 Based on Experience (Guards and Coaches Who've Made Runs)

Another factor that can lead to a team having a big run is the experience of both the coach and the guards as teams are hit with tournament pressure. 

Often the most experienced back courts are lower level teams who do not have the NBA talent of bigger schools with some one-and-dones, so in many cases these ratings can be the opposite of the rankings I posted earlier based on how much NBA-level talent on each team. The scary thing about this tournament is that UConn has the most NBA-level talent AND is tied with Michigan State for the most experienced team.

I use two criteria for this.

The coaches' deepest NCAA run to date gets them a rating from 10 (has won a national title) to 0 (has never even made a tournament). My basic scale on this is "8" if they have made a Final 4, "6" if they have made an Elite 8, "4" if they have made a Sweet 16, "2" if they have won a tournament game. However I adjust up a point or so if they took a surprise team that far, or reached that level multiple times, and might take it down a point if they did it once but a long time ago or with a program that always makes it. The number under "Runs" by each coach is the number I gave them from 10 (best) down to "0" - might be a great coach but hasn't had a run yet to prove it.

The experience of the two guards, listed as starting Point Guard and Shooting Guard at www.kenpom.com for each team determines the second rating "Sr. Guards." A team with two senior guards is a 10, with a senior point guard but junior shooting guard is a 9, etc. all the way down to a 0 for a team starting two freshmen guards like Kentucky.

The overall experience rating is the average of the two. Kentucky has the two extremes with those two freshman guards giving them a "0," but coach John Calipari having won the national title to give them a 10 - so their average of the two is 5.0 and they rank right in the middle. Here are all 68 teams ranked in order.
 
Rnk    Team                         Coach                        Runs    Sr. Guards     Exp. Rating
1ConnecticutDan Hurley101010
2Michigan StateTom Izzo101010
3HoustonKelvin Sampson9109.5
4BaylorScott Drew1099.5
5San Diego StateBrian Dutcher9109.5
6CreightonGreg McDermott8109
7Florida AtlanticDusty May8109
8MarquetteShaka Smart898.5
9VirginiaTony Bennett1078.5
10KansasBill Self1068
11TCUJamie Dixon6108
12Texas A&MBuzz Williams888
13TennesseeRick Barnes787.5
14GonzagaMark Few877.5
15TexasRodney Terry787.5
16AkronJohn Groce697.5
17AlabamaNate Oats4107
18ClemsonBrad Brownell4107
19PurdueMatt Painter766.5
20AuburnBruce Pearl946.5
21NorthwesternChris Collins3106.5
22NevadaSteve Alford3106.5
23McNeese StateWill Wade496.5
24Montana StateMatt Logie3106.5
25North CarolinaHubert Davis846
26WisconsinGreg Gard576
27N.C. StateKevin Keatts2106
28Long Beach StateDan Monson396
29Iowa StateT.J. Otzelberger565.5
30ColoradoTad Boyle385.5
31DuquesneKeith Dambrot1105.5
32VermontJohn Becker295.5
33HowardKenny Blakeney1105.5
34LongwoodGriff Aldrich1105.5
35IllinoisBrad Underwood375
36KentuckyJohn Calipari1005
37Saint Mary'sRandy Bennett465
38DaytonAnthony Grant285
39Colorado StateNiko Medved195
40OregonDana Altman735
41Grand CanyonBryce Drew195
42YaleJames Jones285
43OaklandGreg Kampe285
44GramblingDonte Jackson195
45ArizonaTommy Lloyd544.5
46South CarolinaLamont Paris184.5
47Texas TechGrant McCasland274.5
48FloridaTodd Golden184.5
49Morehead StatePreston Spradlin184.5
50South Dakota StateEric Henderson184.5
51Saint Peter'sBashir Mason094.5
52Western KentuckySteve Lutz184.5
53StetsonDonnie Jones094.5
54DukeJon Scheyer264
55Mississippi StateChris Jans264
56NebraskaFred Hoiberg444
57Utah StateDanny Sprinkle174
58New MexicoRichard Pitino264
59UABAndy Kennedy264
60CharlestonPat Kelsey174
61WagnerDonald Copeland264
62BYUMark Pope153
63DrakeDarian DeVries153
64James MadisonMark Byington063
65Boise StateLeon Rice142.5
66SamfordBucky McMillan042
67ColgateMatt Langel132
68Washington StateKyle Smith000

March Madness Teams Scale 0 to 10 After New Injury Reports led by Marquette's Oso

Here is each March Madness team ranked on a scale of 10 (the best) to 0 in a number of categories.

Total - On this alphabetical list of the 68 March Madness teams, we rank each first on a scale of 0 to 10 based on overall rankings assuming everybody plays.

NBA-level Talent - see our piece yesterday on the NBA-level talent on each team.. Only four teams will start three projected NBA players (UConn, Kentucky, Duke and Colorado), while eight other teams start two NBA prospects, 14 teams have one, leaving a total of 26 teams with projected NBA players on the court and 42 without any NBA projected players.

Off-Def - Teams do not win titles unless both their offense and their defense rank high at www.kenpom.com, so this is based on their ability to play both ends of the floor. For example, Alabama flirts with ranking No. 1 on offense, but is barely in the top 100 in defense so ranks only a "2" on a scale of 1-10 in this category.

Health - Finally, we watch the injury report every day, and adjust teams up perhaps 1 on their overall if completely healthy, but drop teams with key injures. On Monday we added new injury reports that dropped the following teams - Florida drops to a 4 after the terrible leg break to Micah Handlogten with 5.3 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. Howard was already a long shot, and now has two more questionable players in Dom Campbell 7.9,4.4 and Shy Odom.

The big one, as they hope for Kolek's return, our hometown Marquette now has a a double fear with a knee injury calling into question if their other NBA projected player - Oso Ighodaro 14.0, 6.9 - will play Friday due to a knee.

Nebraska drops to a 5 with C.J. Wilcher 7.9, 1.5 questionable. South Carolina drops to a 4 with Myles Stute 8.5, 3.1 questionable. 

All of these new injury reports are for players who might play except for Florida. If these players due play at 100% their team's number would go back up.
 
Reg   Seed   Team                                 Tot  NBA Off-Def   Health   Key Injuries (Points, Rebounds)                   
MW14Akron1012 
W4Alabama7829 2 starters projected NBA
W2Arizona891010 2 starters projected NBA
E4Auburn83109 only projected NBA still backup freshman
W3Baylor7856Langston Love 11.0, 2.9; 2 starters projected NBA
S10Boise State5055 
E6BYU7566Aly Khalifa 5.9, 3.8 - 1 projected NBA player
W13Charleston2022 
W6Clemson7756 1 projected NBA player
W14Colgate1001 
S10Colorado4976Julian Hammond 7.4, 2.5, if C. Williams healed, 3 starters projected NBA
MW10Colorado State4066 
E1Connecticut1010910 5 starters projected NBA
MW3Creighton7799 1 projected NBA player
W7Dayton6645 1 projected NBA player
E10Drake4044 
S4Duke8988Caleb Foster 7.7, 2.4; 3 starters projected NBA
E11Duquesne3012Tre Williams 3.6, 2.8
S7Florida6346NEW - Micah Handlogten 5.3, 6.9 - only projected NBA is playing backup, hurt
E8Florida Atlantic5034Tre Carroll 4.0, 1.8
MW5Gonzaga7078 
MW16Grambling0000 
W12Grand Canyon3044 
S1Houston9098J'Wan Roberts 9.6, 6.9, GONE - Joseph Tugler 3.8, 4.1
W16Howard0000Dom Campbell 7.9,4.4 and Shy Odom 8.7,3.5 both NEW
E3Illinois8859 2 starters projected NBA
E2Iowa State8439 1 projected NBA player
S12James Madison5043 
MW4Kansas8843Hunter Dickinson STAR 18.0, 10.8, Kevin McCullar STAR 18.3, 6.0 - if McCullar back then 2 starters projected NBA
S3Kentucky81029 4 starters projected NBA
W15Long Beach State0000 
S16Longwood0010 
S2Marquette8897Tyler Kolek 15.0, 4.6, Nat'l #1 ast 7.6, STAR, NEW Oso Ighodaro 14.0, 6.9, GONE - Sean Jones 5.8, 1.5, 2.0 - if Tyler and Oso back, 2 starters projected NBA
MW12McNeese State2043 
W9Michigan State5347GONE - Jeremy Fears Jr. 3.5, 1.9; only projected NBA  is back-up playing hurt
W8Mississippi State6047 
MW16Montana State0000 
E14Morehead State1022 
S11N.C. State4033Dennis Parker, Jr. 4.7, 3.2
S8Nebraska6075Eli Rice 4.2, 1.6, NEW C.J. Wilcher 7.9, 1.5
W10Nevada4064Hunter McIntosh 5.9, 1.2,
W11New Mexico3067 
W1North Carolina8889 2 starters projected NBA
E9Northwestern5044Matthew Nicholson 5.3, 4.3, GONE - Ty Berry 5.3, 4.3
S14Oakland1011 
MW11Oregon5642N'Faly Dante STAR, 15.7, 8.8), Keeshawn Barthelemy 7.9, 2.2 - 1 projected NBA player
MW1Purdue97910 1 projected NBA player
MW13Samford2023 
E5San Diego State7058 
MW6South Carolina7064NEW - Myles Stute 8.5, 3.1
E15South Dakota State1011 
W5St. Mary's (CA)7067Harry Wessels 4.4, 3.6, GONE - Joshua Jefferson 102., 6.5
MW15St. Peter's0010 
E16Stetson0000 
MW9TCU5066 
MW2Tennessee87710 1 projected NBA player
MW7Texas6057 1 projected NBA player
S9Texas A&M5065 
S6Texas Tech7676Warren Washington 9.9, 7.4
E12UAB2001 
MW8Utah State5054 
S13Vermont2011Matt Veretto, STAR, 9.0, 3.3
MW10Virginia6813 2 starters projected NBA
W16Wagner0000Zaire Williams 9.3, 3.1
E7Washington State6445 1 projected NBA player
S15Western Kentucky1011 
S5Wisconsin7578 1 projected NBA player
E13Yale2032

Sunday, March 17, 2024

Most NBA Talent on March Madness Rosters

One method for picking your brackets is going with the teams with the most NBA-level talent that can just take over in March Madness as superstar freshman reach that level.

The following is a list of all players in March Madness who are dominant enough to be likely to be drafted to play in the NBA either this year or next. These rankings will be explained in a story on MarquetteHoops.com

For each player we list his height, year in school, the position he plays right now for the school (or if he is out), then the position he would play in the NBA and what number his is expected to go in the draft (#1-60 means ready to do in this year's draft, while #61-120 means expected to go in the 2025 draft). 

Only 26 of 68 March Madness teams have even a single projected NBA draft pick, and only 12 teams have more than one starting this year.

School Player 

#1, Connecticut, NBA Points: 624 Cam Spencer, 6'4, Sr., (start SG), SG, NBA Pick #47 Tristen Newton, 6'5, Sr.,(start PG), SG, NBA Pick #44 Donovan Clingan, 7'2, So., (start C), C, NBA Pick #42 Alex Karaban, 6'8, So., (start PF) SF, NBA Pick #38 Stephon Castle, 6'6, Fr., (start SF) PG/SG, NBA Pick #9. Kentucky has a few more raw points, but several of their players are not playing much yet, while every UConn starter is projected to be picked to make them clearly the most talented team right now in college basketball.

#2, Kentucky, NBA Points: 797 Zvonimir Ivisic, 7'2, Fr., (start C), PF, NBA Pick #106 DJ Wagner, 6'4, Fr., (backup PG) PG/SG, NBA Pick #100 Justin Edwards, 6'8, Fr., (backup SF) SG, NBA Pick #97 Aaron Bradshaw, 7'1, Fr. (bench), PF, NBA Pick #93 Antonio Reeves, 6'6, Sr., (start SF) SG, NBA Pick #21 Rob Dillingham, 6'3, Fr., (start SG) PG, NBA Pick #6 Reed Sheppard, 6'3, Fr., (Start PG) PG/SG, NBA Pick #4 

#3, Duke, NBA Points: 469 Tyrese Proctor, 6'5, So., (start SF), PG, NBA Pick #96 Caleb Foster, 6'5, Fr., PG, NBA Pick #86 Jared McCain, 6'3, Fr., (backup SG, Inj) PG/SG, NBA Pick #26 Kyle Filipowski, 7'0, So., (Start C), C, NBA Pick #17 

#4, Colorado, NBA Points: 395 KJ Simpson, 6'2, Jr., (start PG) PG, NBA Pick #46 Tristan da Silva, 6'9, Sr., (start PF) PF, NBA Pick #34 Cody Williams, 6'8, Fr., (backup SF) SF, NBA Pick #1 

#5, Virginia, NBA Points: 331 Blake Buchanan, 6'11, Fr., (backup C) PF, NBA Pick #98 Reece Beekman, 6'3, Sr., (Start PG) PG, NBA Pick #53 Ryan Dunn, 6'8, So.,(Start PF) SF/PF, NBA Pick #35

#6, Arizona, NBA Points: 300 KJ Lewis, 6'4, Fr., (backup SF) SG, NBA Pick #102 Kylan Boswell, 6'2, So., (start PG) PG, NBA Pick #90 Keshad Johnson, 6'7, Sr., (start PF) PF/C, NBA Pick #52 

#7, Kansas, NBA Points: 279 Johnny Furphy, 6'9, Fr., (start PF) SG, NBA Pick #19 Kevin McCullar, 6'7, Sr., (Start SG-inj), SG, NBA Pick #13 

#8, Marquette, NBA Points: 245 Oso Ighodaro, 6'11, Sr., (Start C), PF, NBA Pick #41 Tyler Kolek, 6'3, Sr., (start PG-inj), PG, NBA Pick #40. While not as quite as many points as Baylor or Kansas, Marquette's future NBA picks includes the all-important position of point guard, as do the teams listed 1-7. Baylor and Illinois also both have 2 players, but on the front line they must rely on others to handle the ball and set the offense.

#9 North Carolina, NBA Points: 194 Elliot Cadeau, 6'1, Fr., (start PG), PG, NBA Pick #112 Harrison Ingram, 6'7, Jr., (start PF), SF, NBA Pick #50 . Likewise we move UNC past Baylor and the Illini due to Cadeau as starting point guard.

#10, Baylor, NBA Points: 265 Yves Missi, 7'0, Fr., (start C), C, NBA Pick #43 Ja'Kobe Walter, 6'5, Fr. (start SF), SG, NBA Pick #8 

#11, Illinois, NBA Points: 252 Coleman Hawkins, 6'10, Sr., (Start C), PF, NBA Pick #54 Terrence Shannon, 6'6, Sr. (start SF), SG, NBA Pick #12 

#12, Alabama, NBA Points: 158 Jarin Stevenson, 6'11, Fr., (Start PF), SF, NBA Pick #119 Rylan Griffen, 6'6, So., (start SF), SG, NBA Pick #108

One NBA Player only:

Another 14 March Madness teams start one player projected to start for them, so we rank them 13-26 based on how high that one player should go in the draft:
 
#13, Tennessee, NBA Points: 149 Dalton Knecht, 6'6, Sr. (start SF), SG, NBA Pick #3 

#14, Creighton, NBA Points: 134 Trey Alexander, 6'4, Jr., (start SG), PG/SG, NBA Pick #24 

#15, Clemson, NBA Points: 126 PJ Hall, 6'10, Sr., (start C), C, NBA Pick #36 

#16, Purdue, NBA Points: 118 Zach Edey, 7'4, Sr.,(start C), C, NBA Pick #45 

#17, Texas, NBA Points: 114 Dillon Mitchell, 6'8, So.,(start PF) SF, NBA Pick #49 

#18, Dayton, NBA Points: 108 DaRon Holmes, 6'10, Jr.,(start C), PF, NBA Pick #56 

#19, Oregon, NBA Points: 104 Kwame Evans, 6'9, Fr.,(start PF) PF, NBA Pick #77 

#20, Michigan State, NBA Points: 100 Xavier Booker, 6'11, Fr.,(backup PF-inj) PF, NBA Pick #89 

#21, Wisconsin, NBA Points: 98 AJ Storr, 6'7, So.,(start SF), SG, NBA Pick #92 

#22, BYU, NBA Points: 221 Collin Chandler, 6'4, So., (LDS Mission Trip), PG, NBA Pick #99 Jaxson Robinson, 6'7, Sr., (start PF), SG/SF, NBA Pick #32. Note they have two players, but actually only one playing since Chandler is on his Mission Trip for the Latter Day Saints.

#23, Iowa State, NBA Points: 87 Milan Momcilovic, 6'8, Fr.,(Start SF), PF, NBA Pick #104 

#24, Washington State, NBA Points: 84 Jaylen Wells, 6'8, Jr., (start SF),SF, NBA Pick #107 

#25, Auburn, NBA Points: 80 Aden Holloway, 6'1, Fr., (backup PG), PG, NBA Pick #114 

#26, Florida, NBA Points: 77 Riley Kugel, 6'5, So., (SF-inj), SG, NBA Pick #117

Teams 27 through 68 March Madness teams have no players projected to be drafted by the NBA this year or next.

Adding the seeds and dropping 12 that did not make it

 Below is the same sheet we printed before the selections were made and final championships played. We left these in alphabetical order, but dropped the 12 teams who did not make it to the bottom, and then added the region and seed for the 68 teams that did make it.

Reg   Se   Made the tourney (68)             Conf     Ceiling   Floor   Off   Def   Key Injuries                               
MW14AkronMAC63626856 
W4AlabamaSEC1412363 
W2ArizonaP1255810 
E4AuburnSEC44104 
W3BaylorB121217643Langston Love 11.0, 2.9
S10Boise StateMW38354322 
E6BYUB1216221133Aly Khalifa 5.9, 3.8
W13CharlestonCAA62614861 
W6ClemsonACC34312545 
W14ColgatePat66667557 
S10ColoradoP1226292428Julian Hammond 7.4, 2/5
MW10Colorado StateMW33283527 
E1ConnecticutBE11112 
MW3CreightonBE1191317 
W7DaytonA1035321952 
E10DrakeMVC46423151 
S4DukeACC1010719Caleb Foster 7.7, 2.4
E11DuquesneA1059586925 
S7FloridaSEC30251648 
E8Florida AtlanticAmer36411560Tre Carroll 4.0, 1.8
MW5GonzagaWCC1513932 
MW16GramblingSWAC78787975 
W12Grand CanyonWAC48455039 
S1HoustonB1223121J'Wan Roberts 9.6, 6.9, GONE - Joseph Tugler 3.8, 4.1
W16HowardMEAC79797479 
E3IllinoisB101311446 
E2Iowa StateB1298542 
S12James MadisonSun49474550 
MW4KansasB121851539Hunter Dickinson STAR 18.0, 10.8, Kevin McCullar STAR 18.3, 6.0
S3KentuckySEC2018562 
W15Long Beach StateBW73736678 
S16LongwoodBSth71717169 
S2MarquetteBE6141715Tyler Kolek 15.0, 4.6, Nat'l #1 ast 7.6, STAR, GONE - Sean Jones 5.8, 1.5, 2.0
MW12McNeese StateSlnd50484153 
W9Michigan StateB102119478Jeremy Fears Jr. 3.5, 1.9
W8Mississippi StateSEC23204914 
MW16Montana StateBsky76767776 
E14Morehead StateOVC64636365 
S11N.C. StateACC51564254Dennis Parker, Jr. 4.7, 3.2
S8NebraskaB1025343021Eli Rice 4.2, 1.6
W10NevadaMW32433426Hunter McIntosh 5.9, 1.2,
W11New MexicoMW24213618 
W1North CarolinaACC87225 
E9NorthwesternB1044462847Matthew Nicholson 5.3, 4.3, GONE - Ty Berry 5.3, 4.3
S14OaklandHrz70706572 
MW11OregonP1255594649N'Faly Dante STAR, 15.7, 8.8), Keeshawn Barthelemy 7.9, 2.2
MW1PurdueB1032216 
MW13SamfordSC58575564 
E5San Diego StateMW1715447 
MW6South CarolinaSEC42383936 
E15South Dakota StateSum69696470 
W5St. Mary's (CA)WCC22263811Harry Wessels 4.4, 3.6, GONE - Joshua Jefferson 102., 6.5
MW15St. Peter'sMetroA72726771 
E16StetsonAsun77775880 
MW9TCUB1231273723 
MW2TennesseeSEC76263 
MW7TexasB1229241840 
S9Texas A&MSEC40363330 
S6Texas TechB1227302331"Warren Washington 9.9, 7.4"
E12UABAmer67675177 
MW8Utah StateMW43393244 
S13VermontAE61647041Matt Veretto, STAR, 9.0, 3.3
MW10VirginiaACC5350726 
W16WagnerNE80808073 
E7Washington StateP1237335220 
S15Western KentuckyCUSA68687359 
S5WisconsinB1019161429 
E13YaleIvy60605758 
         
  Last 12 EliminatedConfCeilingFloorOffDefKey Injuries
  BrownIvy75757674 
  Indiana StateMVC45402155 
  OklahomaB1239534024Rivaldo Soares 9.4, 4.9, John Hugley 8.4, 3.8
  PittsburghACC41372934 
  PrincetonIvy52492767 
  ProvidenceBE54526213GONE - Bryce Hopkins STAR 15.5, 8.6
  Seton HallBE47445635 
  South FloridaAmer57556042 
  St. John'sBE28232037 
  TempleAmer74747868 
  UT ArlingtonWAC65656166 
  VCUA1056545938

Saturday, March 16, 2024

Team-by-team injuries, floors and ceilings for March Madness

Here is our first cheat sheet for the tournament. These are the last 80 teams still alive for a possible bid, either by winning a tournament title Saturday night or Sunday, or by being selected Sunday night. The most important thing of course is to know which teams have key injuries. We listed only strong contributors who are battling injuries. We linked to each of the players stats and listed their average points and rebounds per game.

The teams with the biggest variables between their floor and ceiling from 1st to 4th are Kansas (missing their top two stars in Hunter Dickinson (18.0, 10.8), and Kevin McCullar (18.3, 6.0), Marquette (missing All-American point guard Tyler Kolek (15.0, 4.6  and national high in assists at 7.6). Oregon N'Faly Dante (15.7, 8.8) and then Texas Tech Warren Washington 9.9, 7.4.

Kansas drops from 18th to 51st if neither star returns, while Marquette drops from 6th to 14th if Kolek doesn't return.

We note if a player is a STAR, and the word GONE before them means they will not return. All others could return.

Ceiling is where the team ranked from 1st to 80th if all injured players who might return do.

Floor is where the team ranked from 1st to 80th if none of the players who might return do.

Off is where the team ranks at www.kenpom.com in offense among these 80 teams (UConn is #1).

Def is where the team ranks at www.kenpom.com among these 80 teams on defense (Houston is #1).
 
Possible NCAA  Conf     Ceiling    Floor   Off    Def    Key Injuries / game left Sat night or Sunday, "if b" means must win for bid                                              
AkronMAC63626856 
AlabamaSEC1412363 
ArizonaP1255810 
AuburnSEC44104 
BaylorB121217643Langston Love 11.0, 2.9
Boise StateMW38354322 
BrownIvy75757674if b. Yale Sun
BYUB1216221133Aly Khalifa 5.9, 3.8
CharlestonCAA62614861 
ClemsonACC34312545 
ColgatePat66667557 
ColoradoP1226292428Julian Hammond 7.4, 2.5
Colorado StateMW33283527 
ConnecticutBE11112 
CreightonBE1191317 
DaytonA1035321952 
DrakeMVC46423151 
DukeACC1010719Caleb Foster 7.7, 2.4
DuquesneA1059586925if b. VCU Sun
FloridaSEC30251648 
Florida AtlanticAmer36411560Tre Carroll 4.0, 1.8
GonzagaWCC1513932 
GramblingSWAC78787975 
Grand CanyonWAC48455039if b. UTA SAT
HoustonB1223121J'Wan Roberts 9.6, 6.9, GONE - Joseph Tugler 3.8, 4.1
HowardMEAC79797479 
IllinoisB101311446 
Indiana StateMVC45402155 
Iowa StateB1298542 
James MadisonSun49474550 
KansasB121851539Hunter Dickinson STAR 18.0, 10.8, Kevin McCullar STAR 18.3, 6.0
KentuckySEC2018562 
Long Beach StateBW73736678 
LongwoodBSth71717169 
MarquetteBE6141715Tyler Kolek 15.0, 4.6, Nat'l #1 ast 7.6, STAR, GONE - Sean Jones 5.8, 1.5, 2.0
McNeese StateSlnd50484153 
Michigan StateB102119478Jeremy Fears Jr. 3.5, 1.9
Mississippi StateSEC23204914 
Montana StateBsky76767776 
Morehead StateOVC64636365 
N.C. StateACC51564254Dennis Parker, Jr. 4.7, 3.2
NebraskaB1025343021Eli Rice 4.2, 1.6
NevadaMW32433426Hunter McIntosh 5.9, 1.2,
New MexicoMW24213618 
North CarolinaACC87225 
NorthwesternB1044462847Matthew Nicholson 5.3, 4.3, GONE - Ty Berry 5.3, 4.3
OaklandHrz70706572 
OklahomaB1239534024Rivaldo Soares 9.4, 4.9, John Hugley 8.4, 3.8
OregonP1255594649N'Faly Dante STAR, 15.7, 8.8, Keeshawn Barthelemy 7.9, 2.2
PittsburghACC41372934 
PrincetonIvy52492767 
ProvidenceBE54526213GONE - Bryce Hopkins STAR 15.5, 8.6
PurdueB1032216 
SamfordSC58575564 
San Diego StateMW1715447 
Seton HallBE47445635 
South CarolinaSEC42383936 
South Dakota StateSum69696470 
South FloridaAmer57556042 
St. John'sBE28232037 
St. Mary's (CA)WCC22263811Harry Wessels 4.4, 3.6, GONE - Joshua Jefferson 102., 6.5
St. Peter'sMetroA72726771 
StetsonAsun77775880 
TCUB1231273723 
TempleAmer74747868if b. UAB Sun
TennesseeSEC76263 
TexasB1229241840 
Texas A&MSEC40363330 
Texas TechB1227302331Warren Washington  9.9, 7.4
UABAmer67675177if b. Temple Sun
UT ArlingtonWAC65656166if b. Grand Canyon SAT
Utah StateMW43393244 
VCUA1056545938 
VermontAE61647041Matt Veretto, STAR, 9.0, 3.3
VirginiaACC5350726 
WagnerNE80808073 
Washington StateP1237335220 
Western KentuckyCUSA68687359 
WisconsinB1019161429 
YaleIvy60605758If beat Brown Sun

Tuesday, March 12, 2024

Providence 1960 advances to play McAdoo's UNC with 76-71 Win Against Marshall (Greer vs. Wilkens)

 The following are the cards for Providence 1960 vs. Marshall 1956 are laid out. Part of the reason we want to play each team once is to make sure the stamina and suggested rotations make sense on the bottom of the cards. Here they are written in and we will add these suggested ranges of putting players in games.

Below that is the scoresheet. Providence won 76-71 with the benefit of an incredible four "and-ones" in the final 5 minutes. The last one was decisive as it fouled Charlie Slack out of the game and later he would have grabbed anl key offensive rebound on a "high in game" since both he and opposing center James Hednot have 1-10 ranges and a tie goes to the offensive player.

His backup Bob Ashley was also 1-10, but because he had already used his stamina earlier in the game and just come back in for the foul out, all rolls that involve him (on offense of defense) are adjusted by 1 against him, so in this case he was considered a 1-9 and did not grab the rebound.





Sunday, March 10, 2024

20 Lead Changes End With LSU Upset of Georgetown (Pettit Over Iverson)

A record 20 lead changes in a Value Add Basketball Game between Georgetown 1995 and LSU 1953 ended in the first elimination of one of the six great player teams that received a bye. Eight first half turnovers by Georgetown helped LSU go to the break with a 33-29 lead, but once the Hoyas rallied for a 36-35 lead with 28 possessions (16:51) to play, the game went back and forth until two huge offensive rebounds by Bob Pettit put the Tigers ahead for good.

Pettit averaged 27 points and 14 rebounds in his LSU career and almost the same in a decade in the NBA. He was NBA Rookie if the year, and⁹9 then the next 9 years was in the top 6 of MVP voting every year - winning the award twice. So his 28 points and 11 rebound in this game was just another day at the office.

LSU, the 11-seed in our tournament, missed  shot trailing 65-64 with 6 possessions (3.21) left to play. However, Pettit grabbed the offensive rebound and dished to fellow dominant rebounder Ned Clark, who was fouled. Clark hit the first free throw to tie the game, and when he missed the second shot Pettit grabbed the offensive rebound again (on free throws the offense grabs the rebound less than 20 percent of the time compared to almost 40% on a missed field goal) and put it in to make it 67-65.

The Hoyas last chance was with 3 possessions (1:30) to play when Allen Iverson came up with his sixth steal trailing 71-67, but could not convert at the other end and Pettit's next basket made it 73-67. Iverson's final dunk at the end of the game simply tightened the final score. Below is the box score, updated bracket with LSU advancing to the Elite 8 of the new Great Players tournament, and the scoresheet to show the flow of the game with the 20 lead changes though only 6 tied scores as the teams normally traded 1-point leads. 

LSU did make the 1953 Final 4 and Georgetown just the Sweet 16, but the Hoyas cards appear several points better after facing tougher competition in their season and having two road wins against top 20 teams (Villanova and Syracuse). 

With four of the five top seeds advancing, the last one to play is Bob McAdoo's UNC 1972 team, which will await the winner of the Providence vs. Marshall game. (incorrect box score originally posted, now corrected)


Pos       LSU 1953                  Pts  3pt  2pt  FT  Att  Reb  Stl  Blk  Fl   Season Actual       
1-PGNorman Magee9203631145'11,13.3 ppg
2-SGBenny McArdle7120012125'10,8.1 ppg
3-SFDon Belcher6014470236'2,12.7 ppg
4-PFBob Pettit284800111016'9,31st best ever
5-CNed Clark9041280226'5,9.7 ppg
1-PGKenny Bridges2010010025'11,1.7 ppg
2-SGLeslie Jones2010010016'2,2.5 ppg
3-SFDon Sebastian4012210015'10,3.2 ppg
4-PFBob Freshley6030030016'6, 2.1 ppg
 15 Turnovers737211014360617 
            
PosGeorgetown 1995Pts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlSeason Actual
1-PGAllen Iverson291114646036'0, 40th best ever
2-SGGeorge Butler7112232026'2, 11.2 ppg
3-SFDon Reid4020030136'8, 7.2 ppg
4-PFJerome Williams4020060016'9, 10.9 ppg
5-COthella Harrington12052270536'9, 12.2 ppg
1-PGEric Myles2010210015'10, 5.3 ppg
2-SGIrvin Church2010010016'1, 3.4 ppg
3-SFJohn Jacques5110021026'3, 5.9 ppg
4-PFBoubacar Aw2010030016'7, 4.0 ppg
5-CJahidi White2010020116'9, 2.3 ppg
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