Friday, September 22, 2017

Sun Belt: UT-Arlington Duo Could Star in March Madness After Solid Football Teams Battle for Title

The Sun Belt boasts a few solid football programs, including the Appalachian State team that moved up to FBS after shocking Michigan, Arkansas State, Troy and a LA-Lafayette team with a history of offense. UT Arlington looked ready to give the conference another tournament win with a top 40 RBI and 27-9, but Troy won the conference tournament and then fell short is a spirited effort against Duke.

Such are the dangers of a conference with seven teams that won 20 or more games, but Arlington will go in as a heavy favorite with 6-foot-7 Kevin Hervey the clear favorite for Player of the Year as one of the best 60 players in the country, and point guard Erick Neal among the best point guards even though Value Add analytics do not capture how well he runs the court.

Value Add projects UT-Arlington to win again, but with six teams ranking in the top half of all Division 1 schools, this projects as a dangerous conference.

Here is where Value Add ranks each Southwestern Athletic (SWAC) team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams against all other schools (including behind the 129 FBS schools. Updates will be provided here.



Sun Belt / 2016 seedHoopsFootball
UT Arlington75
Arkansas St.12485
Georgia St.131170
Troy 1513790
Louisiana Lafayette146124
Texas St.174191
Georgia Southern195141
Coastal Carolina207145
South Alabama243129
Little Rock245
Louisiana Monroe262160
Appalachian St.27477

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order. Subjectively we believe Neal ranks much higher than the third team All-Conference team, as this ranking would indicate. Certain things that ball handlers and perimeter defenders do cannot be measured via stats, and he seems to be one of those cases.

Top 15 Sun Belt PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Kevin Hervey 257.67Texas Arlington`6-07
Bryce Washington 326.51Louisiana Lafayette`6-06
Ike Smith 35.91Georgia Southern`6-04
Jordon Varnado 235.80Troy`6-06
Wesley Person 35.74Troy`6-03
Tookie Brown 45.30Georgia Southern`5-11
Malik Benlevi 25.19Georgia St.`6-05
Frank Bartley 45.02Louisiana Lafayette`6-03
Jaylen Shaw 54.78Coastal Carolina`6-01
Ronshad Shabazz 24.10Appalachian St.`6-05
D'Marcus Simonds 153.96Georgia St.`6-03
Tamas Bruce 323.93Arkansas St.`6-07
Deven Simms 233.77Arkansas St.`6-04
Erick Neal 13.70Texas Arlington`5-10
Nijal Pearson 223.38Texas St.`6-05

Ken Pomeroy ranked the Sun Belt 15th of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

Summit: 4 FCS Football Powerhouses Join Basketball-Only Schools for Big March Madness Tournament

The four Summit League schools that play football play it well as FCS Powerhouses, led by a North Dakota State team that consistently beats FBS schools. The basketball programs are not as elite, but their conference tournament is one of the best attended in the country, and this year they get to watch Fort Wayne's John Konchar, a potential Top 50 player, and Value Add 3rd Team All-American Mike Daum of South Dakota State.

Value Add a great duo from Denver gives them a chance to challenge the Dakota schools for the title, though that would entail quite a jump from a 16-14 last season. South Dakota went 22-12 last season and Fort Wayne 20-13 before South Dakota State won the conference tournament despite failing to have a winning regular season.

Here is where Value Add ranks each Summit League team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams, showing the four schools that play football rank ahead of many FBS schools. Updates will be provided here.

Team - 2017 SeedHoops valueFootball
Denver83
South Dakota11688
South Dakota St. 1613482
Fort Wayne153
IUPUI223
Nebraska Omaha230
North Dakota St.25344
Oral Roberts268
Western Illinois28699

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.

Top 15 Summit PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Mike Daum 249.36South Dakota St.`6-09
John Konchar 557.68IUPU Fort Wayne`6-05
Matt Mooney 135.46South Dakota`6-03
Joe Rosga 25.23Denver`6-03
Daniel Amigo 445.00Denver`6-10
Paul Miller 24.67North Dakota St.`6-06
Mitch Hahn 444.65Nebraska Omaha`6-08
Carlton Hurst 24.50South Dakota`6-03
Albert Owens 444.10Oral Roberts`6-09
Emmanuel Nzekwesi 233.90Oral Roberts`6-08
AJ Jacobson 213.76North Dakota St.`6-06
Bryson Scott 13.70IUPU Fort Wayne`6-01
Zach Jackson 213.69Nebraska Omaha`6-05
Kason Harrell 323.66IUPU Fort Wayne`6-02
Thomas Neff 153.48Denver`6-05

Ken Pomeroy ranked the Summit League 16th of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

SWAC: Jerry Rice and Grambling NFL Greats Yield to March Madness Hopes

In the past, match-ups between Historically Black Colleges could feature as many future NFL players from Grambling State as played for Bear Bryant at Alabama. Grambling's opponent Saturday, Mississippi Valley State, once featured the first five receiver offense including the greatest of all-time, Jerry Rice. With almost all NFL talent now going to D1 schools, Texas Southern basketball offers the best chance for a SWAC school to get national attention in an opening March Madness game.

Football excitement returned in last year's Bayou Classic, as Grambling and Southern both returned to some past glory when they clashed after eight game winning streaks and Grambling coming close to stunning Arizona for a 9-0 start. Value Add projects Texas Southern, a much weaker football program, to again take the basketball title behind an All-Conference duo, but the one school with a shot at both the football and basketball title is Alcorn State, who boasts the Value Add preseason Player of the Year in Reginal Johnson.

Here is where Value Add ranks each Southwestern Athletic (SWAC) team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams against all other schools (including behind the 129 FBS schools. Updates will be provided here.


SWAC TeamsHoopsFootball
Texas Southern 16212357
Alcorn St.285251
Prairie View A&M313255
Southern326219
Grambling St.327189
Jackson St.329315
Alabama St.342330
Mississippi Valley St.344468
Arkansas Pine Bluff348406
Alabama A&M351331

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.


Top 15 SWAC PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Reginal Johnson 244.72Alcorn St.`6-05
Jared Sam 124.60Southern`6-09
Zachary Hamilton 143.36Prairie View A&M`6-04
Jalan McCloud 13.12Texas Southern`5-10
Demontrae Jefferson 33.00Texas Southern`5-07
Paris Collins 53.00Jackson St.`6-04
Trent Steen 152.80Arkansas Pine Bluff`6-08
AJ Mosby 22.60Alcorn St.`6-03
Rodney Simeon 12.50Alabama St.`6-05
Shay'rone Jett 212.35Prairie View A&M`6-08
De'Edrick Petty 32.30Alabama A&M`5-10
Eddie Reese2.20Southern`6-01
Kevin Scott 42.17Texas Southern`6-04
Maurice Rivers 121.86Jackson St.`6-07
Emanual Shepherd 21.83Southern`6-08

Ken Pomeroy ranked the SWAC last of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

23 Years After Football National Title, WAC Hosts 1st For-Profit Basketball School

Grand Canyon, the highly successful first for-profit University to compete in the NCAA, gets its first chance at a basketball championship in a bid to dethrone New Mexico State, the only WAC school to still play football 23 years after the conference produced national champion BYU and an Air Force football team that crushed Virginia Tech.
New Mexico State football upset New Mexico and came close against Arizona State and Troy, so hopes to compete in Sun Belt football, but for the rest of the WAC the first big game of the year is on the basketball court where Grand Canyon is eligible for the title and an NCAA bid for the first time.
The Christian University, with strong Southern Baptist backing, was cited by the Governor for increasing surrounding home values by 30 percent while lowering the crime rate by 30 percent after the purchase took the school from 1,000 to almost 20,000 students. While a title would be a surprise, if Joshua Braun takes conference Player of the Year the team could build on its season-ending upset of the other WAC basketball power, Cal State Bakersfield, to compete for a conference title and NCAA bid.

Value Add projects Bakersfield and New Mexico State as top 100 teams who should battle for the title, but gives both Grand Canyan and Utah Valley a chance. NM State's Eli Chuha (worth 6.27 extra points per game) nudges out Braun for preseason conference Player of the Year, but six of the eight teams have one of the top seven preseason players in the conference.

Here is where Value Add ranks each Western Athletic (WAC) team for the season, and the Massey Rankings have New Mexico State near the bottom of the FBS football ratings at 123rd, versus the basketball teams strong rating of 84th out of 351 D1 programs. Updates will be provided here:


WAC School RankingsHoopsFootball
New Mexico St. 1484123
Cal St. Bakersfield90
Utah Valley147
Grand Canyon152
UMKC219
Seattle265
UT Rio Grande Valley300
Chicago St.335

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.



15 MVP in WACValue AddSchoolHt
Eli Chuha 226.27New Mexico St.`6-07
Joshua Braun 26.00Grand Canyon`6-04
Isaac Neilson 225.99Utah Valley`6-11
Nick Dixon 45.83Texas Rio Grande Valley`6-02
Jemerrio Jones 105.54New Mexico St.`6-05
Fred Sims Jr5.00Chicago St.`6-04
Brent Wrapp 14.68Cal St. Bakersfield`6-03
Zach Lofton 24.28New Mexico St.`6-03
Keonta Vernon 244.20Grand Canyon`6-06
Sidy N'Dir 134.00New Mexico St.`6-02
Aaron Menzies 413.57Seattle`7-03
Damiyne Durham 233.36Cal St. Bakersfield`6-04
Matej Kavas 53.12Seattle`6-08
Akolda Manyang3.00Utah Valley
Zachary Moore 302.66Seattle`6-05

Ken Pomeroy ranked the WAC as the 17th best of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

West Coast: After Football BYU Will Challenge Basketball-only St. Mary's & Gonzaga

Brigham Young withstood bids from power conferences to maintain an independent football program, but Value Add projects the BYU basketball team to be better than their football squad this season. TJ Haws (worth 6.00 extra points per game) gives the team a chance in West Coast play to catch national runner-up Gonzaga and Saint Mary's and National Player of the Year candidate Jock Landale (worth 10.38 extra points per game).

Here is where Value Add ranks each West Coast team for the season, and the Massey Rankings of the BYU and San Diego football teams so far this season. Updates will be provided here:


Team - 2017 Seed   Hoops Value   Football
Saint Mary's 723
Gonzaga 130
BYU51football: 68
Santa Clara110
San Francisco112
San Diego199football: 222
Pacific220
Portland307
Loyola Marymount325
Pepperdine347

Opening day for Gonzaga and Saint Mary's students occurs in November on the basketball court, and the two programs continue to be two of the best. Gonzaga battled for the national title before finally falling to UNC in last year's championship game. They should be ranked again, behind three projected 1st team all conference players worth more than 6.00 points per game, but Value Add gives Saint Mary's the chance to improve behind Value Add preseason All-American Landale and Calvin Hermanson, the fifth projected 1st team All-West Coast player along with the three Gonzaga stars.

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.


Player, jerseyValue AddTeamHt
Jock Landale 3410.38St. Mary's`6-11
Killian Tillie 336.99Gonzaga`6-10
Johnathan Williams 36.80Gonzaga`6-09
Calvin Hermanson 246.78St. Mary's`6-06
Rui Hachimura 216.43Gonzaga`6-08
Henry Caruso 216.19Santa Clara`6-04
TJ Haws 306.00Brigham Young`6-04
Josh Perkins 135.70Gonzaga`6-03
Emmett Naar 35.24St. Mary's`6-01
KJ Feagin 25.10Santa Clara`6-01
Emmett Haar5.00St. Mary's
Yoeli Childs 234.90Brigham Young`6-08
Silas Melson 04.81Gonzaga`6-04
Nick Emery 44.70Brigham Young`6-02
Chase Foster 224.47San Francisco`6-05

While BYU seems to be the only team to consistently challenge the two WCC perennial powers, San Francisco brings incredible balance after a group of 13 freshmen and sophomores shocked everyone with a 20-win season. However, in the end it appears BYU is the team with the best chance to give the WCC three bids to the NCAA tournament.

Ken Pomeroy ranked the WCC as the 11th best of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports Illustrated, Fox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.


Friday, August 4, 2017

ERA and OPS of top 11 Players for 19 MLB Contenders: Nats, Astros, Dodgers, Diamondbacks Dominate

The 11 most important positions going into a Major League baseball playoff series are the eight starting position players and the first three starting pitchers. While a deep bench and relief pitching can determine series if these are fairly evenly matched, if the top three starting pitchers throw well they can throw most of the innings in a playoff series facing mainly the eight best starters the opposing team can put on the field while covering all nine positions (obviously AL games have a DH as well, but they have less impact since they cannot take runs away on defense).

The following table compares the two best traditional stats, the Earned Run Average (ERA) for the three pitchers and On Base Percentage Plus Slugging Average for the eight batters (OPS). These are not perfect stats - on-base percentage is almost twice as important as slugging average and both are impacted by ballparks for example - but they represent a great bridge between traditional stats and modern analytics and the purpose of this breakdown is to focus on the players who will play most of the innings in a playoff series.

The league averages as of August 4 were a 4.34 ERA and a .751 OPS. However, the Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros, Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks are the top four teams in both stats when comparing these 11 players:

Team8 Pos OPSBatERA3 SPOverall
Nationals0.87822.7111
Astros0.88512.9032
Dodgers0.85442.7923
Diamondbacks0.87133.0244
Red Sox0.792103.3355
Brewers0.80093.5666
Indians0.83763.97127
Yankees0.84254.02138
Rays0.762153.5779
Mariners0.768133.791010
Cubs0.790123.881111
Rockies0.81974.401712
Royals0.757163.76913
Twins0.738183.72814
Rangers0.792114.171515
Orioles0.81685.071916
Tigers0.763144.411817
Blue Jays0.737194.101418
Angels0.744174.221619

The following is the breakdown of all 11 players for each of the 19 teams with the ERA and OPS of each player.

TeamPosNameOPS/ERA
MLBPitcherAverage ERA4.34
MLBBatterAverage OPS0.751
AngelsSP1Alex Meyer3.74
AngelsSP2JC Ramirez4.03
AngelsSP3Ricky Nolasco4.90
AngelscfMike Trout1.159
AngelsssAndrelton Simmons0.816
Angels3bYunel Escobar0.727
AngelsCMartin Maldonado0.701
AngelsrfKole Calhoun0.682
Angels1BLuis Valbuena0.642
Angels2bCliff Pennington0.632
AngelslfBen Revere0.591
AstrosSP1Dallas Keuchel2.15
AstrosSP2Brad Peacock2.62
AstrosSP3Lance McCullers3.92
Astros2bJose Altuve1.000
AstroscfGeorge Springer0.974
AstrosssCarlos Correa0.966
AstroslfMarwin Gonzalez0.958
AstrosrfJosh Reddick0.838
Astros3bAlex Bregman0.816
Astros1BYulieski Gurriel0.783
AstrosCBrian McCann0.748
Blue JaysSP1Marcus Stroman3.19
Blue JaysSP2J.A. Happ3.92
Blue JaysSP3Marco Estrada5.19
Blue Jays1BJustin Smoak0.984
Blue Jays3bJosh Donaldson0.847
Blue JayslfPearce0.795
Blue JaysCRussell Martin0.745
Blue JaysrfBautista0.704
Blue JayscfKevin Pillar0.698
Blue JaysssTroy Tulowitzki0.678
Blue Jays2bRefsnyder0.448
BrewersSP1Chase Anderson2.89
BrewersSP2Jimmy Nelson3.37
BrewersSP3Zach Davies4.42
Brewers3bTravis Shaw0.923
Brewers1BEric Thames0.902
BrewerslfRyan Braun0.876
BrewersrfDomingo Santana0.856
Brewers2bEric Sogard0.81
BrewersCManny Pina0.801
BrewersssOrlando Arcia0.72
BrewerscfLewis Brinson0.513
CubsSP1Kyle Hendricks3.80
CubsSP2Jake Arrieta3.88
CubsSP3Jon Lester3.96
Cubs1BAnthony Rizzo0.915
Cubs3bKris Bryant0.899
CubsCWillson Contreras0.855
Cubs2bJavier Baez0.788
CubslfKyle Schwarber0.724
CubsssAddison Russell0.722
CubscfAlbert Almora Jr.0.717
CubsrfJason Heyward0.703
DiamondbacksSP1Zack Godley2.86
DiamondbacksSP2Zack Greinke3.10
DiamondbacksSP3Robbie Ray3.11
Diamondbacks1BPaul Goldschmidt1.031
DiamondbacksrfJ.D. Martinez1.006
Diamondbacks3bJake Lamb0.911
DiamondbackscfA.J. Pollock0.832
DiamondbacksssKetel Marte0.814
DiamondbacksrfDavid Peralta0.81
DiamondbacksCChris Iannetta0.794
Diamondbacks2bBrandon Drury0.77
DodgersSP1Clayton Kershaw2.04
DodgersSP2Alex Wood2.33
DodgersSP3Yu Darvish4.01
Dodgers3bJustin Turner0.979
Dodgers1BCody Bellinger0.954
DodgerslfChris Taylor0.913
DodgersssCorey Seager0.913
DodgerscfJoc Pederson0.806
DodgersrfYasiel Puig0.801
DodgersCYasmani Grandal0.792
Dodgers2bLogan Forsythe0.674
IndiansSP1Corey Kluber2.77
IndiansSP2Carlos Carrasco3.89
IndiansSP3Trevor Bauer5.25
IndiansrfLonnie Chisenhall0.954
Indians2bJose Ramirez0.938
Indians3bJose Ramirez0.938
IndiansssFrancisco Lindor0.805
IndianslfMichael Brantley0.795
IndianscfBradley Zimmer0.794
Indians1BCarlos Santana0.788
IndiansCYan Gomes0.68
MarinersSP1James Paxton2.68
MarinersSP2Felix Hernandez4.28
MarinersSP3Ariel Miranda4.41
Mariners2bRobinson Cano0.807
MarinerslfBen Gamel0.799
MarinersssJean Segura0.793
MarinersrfMitch Haniger0.783
Mariners3bKyle Seager0.776
MarinersCMike Zunino0.767
Mariners1BDanny Valencia0.74
MarinerscfJarrod Dyson0.677
NationalsSP1Max Scherzer2.21
NationalsSP2Gio Gonzalez2.66
NationalsSP3Stephen Strasburg3.25
NationalsrfBryce Harper1.041
Nationals3bAnthony Rendon0.997
Nationals2bDaniel Murphy0.945
Nationals1BRyan Zimmerman0.928
NationalslfAdam Lind0.9
NationalscfBrian Goodwin0.807
NationalsssTrea Turner0.746
NationalsCMatt Wieters0.66
OriolesSP1Dylan Bundy4.24
OriolesSP2Kevin Gausman5.37
OriolesSP3Wade Miley5.60
Orioles2bJonathan Schoop0.91
OriolesssJohnathan Schoop0.902
OrioleslfTrey Mancini0.865
OriolesrfSeth Smith0.817
Orioles1BChris Davis0.767
OriolescfAdam Jones0.763
Orioles3bManny Machado0.751
OriolesCWelington Castillo0.751
RangersSP1Andrew Cashner3.36
RangersSP2Cole Hamels4.01
RangersSP3Martin Perez5.13
Rangers3bAdrian Beltre0.875
Rangers1BJoey Gallo0.869
RangersssElvis Andrus0.801
RangerscfCarlos Gomez0.796
RangersCRobinson Chirinos0.781
RangersrfShin-Soo Choo0.779
RangerslfNomar Mazara0.747
Rangers2bRougned Odor0.69
RaysSP1Jacob Faria2.93
RaysSP2Chris Archer3.89
RaysSP3Alex Cobb3.89
Rays1BLogan Morrison0.904
RaysrfSteven Souza Jr.0.893
RayslfCorey Dickerson0.881
Rays3bEvan Longoria0.789
RayscfMallex Smith0.742
RaysCJesus Sucre0.656
Rays2bBrad Miller0.649
RaysssAdeiny Hechavarria0.584
Red SoxSP1Chris Sale2.70
Red SoxSP2Drew Pomeranz3.46
Red SoxSP3David Price3.82
Red Sox3bRafael Devers1
Red SoxrfMookie Betts0.815
Red Sox2bDustin Pedroia0.792
Red SoxlfAndrew Benintendi0.766
Red SoxcfJackie Bradley Jr.0.765
Red Sox1BMitch Moreland0.751
Red SoxssXander Bogaerts0.741
Red SoxCChristian Vazquez0.709
RockiesSP1Kyle Freeland3.71
RockiesSP2German Marquez4.11
RockiesSP3Jeff Hoffman5.38
RockiescfCharlie Blackmon0.99
Rockies3bNolan Arenado0.961
RockieslfGerardo Parra0.903
Rockies1BMark Reynolds0.892
Rockies2bDJ LeMahieu0.796
RockiesssTrevor Story0.725
RockiesCJonathan Lucroy0.645
RockiesrfCarlos Gonzalez0.641
RoyalsSP1Jason Vargas3.10
RoyalsSP2Danny Duffy3.42
RoyalsSP3Jason Hammel4.75
Royals1BEric Hosmer0.869
Royals3bMike Moustakas0.852
RoyalsCSalvador Perez0.824
Royals2bWhit Merrifield0.802
RoyalsrfMelky Cabrera0.773
RoyalscfLorenzo Cain0.771
RoyalslfAlex Gordon0.595
RoyalsssAlcides Escobar0.567
TigersSP1Michael Fulmer3.59
TigersSP2Justin Verlander4.29
TigersSP3Jordan Zimmermann5.35
TigerslfJustin Upton0.885
TigerscfMikie Mahtook0.802
TigersCJames McCann0.773
TigersrfJim Adduci0.765
Tigers1BMiguel Cabrera0.758
Tigers3bNick Castellanos0.742
Tigers2bIan Kinsler0.719
TigersssJose Iglesias0.658
TwinsSP1Ervin Santana3.28
TwinsSP2Jose Berrios3.57
TwinsSP3Adalberto Mejia4.30
Twins3bMiguel Sano0.871
TwinslfEddie Rosario0.787
Twins2bBrian Dozier0.753
Twins1BJoe Mauer0.751
TwinsssEhire Adrianza0.734
TwinsrfMax Kepler0.726
TwinsCJason Castro0.689
TwinscfZach Granite0.596
YankeesSP1Luis Severino2.98
YankeesSP2Jordan Montgomery4.15
YankeesSP3Masahiro Tanaka4.93
YankeesrfAaron Judge1.051
YankeescfAaron Hicks0.913
YankeesCGary Sanchez0.845
YankeesssDidi Gregorius0.823
Yankees2bStarlin Castro0.816
YankeeslfBrett Gardner0.81
Yankees1bChase Headley0.741
Yankees3bTodd Frazier0.734

Saturday, July 15, 2017

33 MLB Seasons In Which Top 2 Teams Combined for 64%+ Winning Percentage

Since the creation of Major League Baseball Divisions in 1969, the top two teams combined to win more than 64 percent of their games only five times. The Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers current pace puts them in that group:


YearTeam - World Series ResWonLosttop 2 W%
1998New York Yankees  W 1144867.90%
1998Atlanta Braves1065667.90%
2001Seattle Mariners1164667.28%
2001Oakland Athletics1026067.28%
1995Cleveland Indians  L 1004465.97%
1995Atlanta Braves  W 905465.97%
1970Baltimore Orioles  W 1085464.81%
1970Cincinnati Reds  L 1026064.81%
1969Baltimore Orioles  L 1095364.51%
1969New York Mets  W 1006264.51%
2017Los Angeles Dodgers ?632964.24%
2017Houston Astros ?613064.24%

It was easier to hit that mark prior to expansion, as 28 of 68 seasons featured two teams that combined for a winning percentage of above 64 percent from 1901 to 1968.

Here are the best duos. A "W" indicates the team won the World Series and "L" indicates they lost the World Series, and this was during an era in which the top AL and NL team went straight to the World Series. The only time the top two teams topped a 70 percent winning percentage was in 1909 when the Pirates beat out the Cubs for the NL title and went onto take the World Series.


YearTeam - World Series ResWonLosttop 2 W%
1909Pittsburgh Pirates  W 1104270.16%
1909Chicago Cubs1044970.16%
1906Chicago Cubs  L 1163669.74%
1906New York Giants965669.74%
1954Cleveland Indians  L 1114369.48%
1954New York Yankees1035169.48%
1912Boston Red Sox  W 1054768.65%
1912New York Giants  L 1034868.65%
1942St. Louis Cardinals  W 1064868.18%
1942Brooklyn Dodgers1045068.18%
1931Philadelphia Athletics  L 1074567.97%
1931St. Louis Cardinals  W 1015367.97%
1910Chicago Cubs  L 1045067.76%
1910Philadelphia Athletics  W 1024867.76%
1902Pittsburgh Pirates1033667.64%
1902Philadelphia Athletics835367.64%
1929Philadelphia Athletics  W 1044666.89%
1929Chicago Cubs  L 985466.89%
1953Brooklyn Dodgers  L 1054966.89%
1953New York Yankees  W 995266.89%
1939New York Yankees  W 1064566.56%
1939Cincinnati Reds  L 975766.56%
1927New York Yankees  W 1104466.23%
1927Pittsburgh Pirates  L 946066.23%
1943St. Louis Cardinals  L 1054965.91%
1943New York Yankees  W 985665.91%
1915Boston Red Sox  W 1015065.90%
1915Detroit Tigers1005465.90%
1907Chicago Cubs  W 1074565.89%
1907Detroit Tigers  L 925865.89%
1911Philadelphia Athletics  W 1015065.79%
1911New York Giants  L 995465.79%
1919Cincinnati Reds  W 964465.71%
1919Chicago White Sox  L 885265.71%
1905New York Giants  W 1054865.69%
1905Pittsburgh Pirates965765.69%
1904New York Giants1064765.47%
1904Boston Americans955965.47%
1903Pittsburgh Pirates  L 914965.47%
1903Boston Americans  W 914765.47%
1932New York Yankees  W 1074765.26%
1932Philadelphia Athletics946065.26%
1941New York Yankees  W 1015365.26%
1941Brooklyn Dodgers  L 1005465.26%
1946Boston Red Sox  L 1045065.16%
1946St. Louis Cardinals  W 985865.16%
1928New York Yankees  W 1015364.82%
1928Philadelphia Athletics985564.82%
1961New York Yankees  W 1095364.81%
1961Detroit Tigers1016164.81%
1913New York Giants  L 1015164.59%
1913Philadelphia Athletics  W 965764.59%
1937New York Yankees  W 1025264.38%
1937New York Giants  L 955764.38%
1917Chicago White Sox  W 1005464.29%
1917New York Giants  L 985664.29%