UConn 2023 Sets Defensive Record with 77-39 Blasting of St. Peter's 2022

After three straight all-time great tournament games came down to the wire, our top seed in this tournament became the first team in our game to hold an opponent under 40 points with a 77-39 destruction of St. Peter's Cinderella Elite 8 team of 2022.

St. Peter's is the lowest rated team in the game, as they went 16-11 during the regular season in the MAAC despite only two games against power conference teams (both double digit losses) before winning the tournament and stunning Kentucky in the opening round of March Madness en route to the Elite 8. Despite the run, www.kenpom.com still ranked St. Peter's outside the Top 100. However, they were part of our third batch of teams added to the game to try to give as many schools as possible a team in the game.

However, the dunk ratings adjust for level of competition played and team defense beyond steals, Blocked shots and defensive rebounds. St. Peter's played the 137th toughest schedule in 2022 even counting the 4 March Madness games, while UConn played the 17th toughest in 2023. St. Peter's defense still holds up on because they were the 25th best defense in the country based on Www.kenpom.com, but they only had the 231st best offense adjusted for competition which is the basis for the dunk range being so low.

 St. Peter's resultant - 1 offensive rating (1 number as a STOP rather than a DUNK for the 51-66 dunk range) combined with the tough UConn defense dunk adjustment of -4 to give a range of 51-55 that was a stop (defender of player with the ball gets a rebound on a missed shot) and the Huskies dominated from the outset. Freshman Donavan Clingan scored early in route to 12 points as one of the best reserves in the game, and UConn completely shut down St. Peter's to advance 77-39 - the most lobsided game in the 216 games we have have played between great teams.

The most lobsided games and best defensive performances we've played so far appear below the box score.
 

St. Peter's 2022	Ht	Pos	Pts	Reb	Stl	Blk	Foul	Actual Season Stats
Matthew Lee	6'0	1-PG	4	1	1	0	4	6.8 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 2.9 Ast
Daryl Banks	6'3	2-SG	6	1	2	0	1	11.3 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 1.4 Ast
KC Ndefo	6'7	3-SF	6	4	0	1	2	10.5 Pts, 6.1 Reb, 2.4 Ast
Doug Edert	6'2	4-PF	4	3	0	0	2	9.5 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 0.9 Ast
Fousseyni Drame	6'7	5-C	6	11	0	2	1	7.0 Pts, 6.4 Reb, 0.7 Ast
Jaylen Murray	5'11	1-PG	2	2	0	0	2	5.8 Pts, 1.6 Reb, 1.6 Ast
Clarence Rupert	6'8	2-SG	2	1	0	0	1	4.4 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 0.7 Ast
Hassan Drame	6'7	3-SF	2	5	0	0	1	6.0 Pts, 5.3 Reb, 0.8 Ast
Isiah Dasher	6'3	4-PF	5	4	1	1	3	4.8 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 0.8 Ast
Oumar Diahame	6'10	5-C	2	1	0	0	1	1.9 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 0.0 Ast
Total Turnovers 11			39	33	4	4	18
UConn 2023	Ht	Pos	Pts	Reb	Stl	Blk	Foul	Actual Season Stats
Tristen Newton	6'5	1-PG	11	6	1	1	2	10.1 Pts, 4.5 Reb, 4.7 Ast
Andre Jackson	6'6	2-SG	6	7	2	0	2	6.7 Pts, 6.2 Reb, 4.7 Ast
Alex Karaban	6'8	3-SF	11	8	0	1	1	9.3 Pts, 4.5 Reb, 1.7 Ast
Jordan Hawkins	6'5	4-PF	21	4	1	0	2	16.2 Pts, 3.8 Reb, 1.3 Ast
Adama Sanogo	6'9	5-C	8	8	1	4	1	17.2 Pts, 7.7 Reb, 1.3 Ast
Hassan Diarra	6'2	1-PG	2	1	0	1	1	2.1 Pts, 1.3 Reb, 1.8 Ast
Joey Calcaterra	6'3	2-SG	2	4	0	0	1	5.8 Pts, 1.7 Reb, 1.2 Ast
Nahiem Alleyne	6'4	3-SF	2	3	0	0	1	5.2 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 0.8 Ast
Samson Johnson	6'10	4-PF	2	1	0	0	1	0.9 Pts, 0.8 Reb, 0.1 Ast
Donovan Clingan	7'2	5-C	12	3	0	1	1	6.9 Pts, 5.6 Reb, 0.5 Ast
Total Turnovers 6			77	45	5	8	13

Fewest Points Allowed

39 - Connecticut 2023 allowed 39 by St. Peter's 2022, 77-39

44 - Kansas 2008 allowed 44 by Oklahoma 2016, 66-44

47 - Connecticut 2004 allowed by Butler 2010, 71-47

47 - Gonzaga 2017 allowed by Memphis 2008, 65-47

48 - Gonzaga 2017 allowed by UCLA 2006, 81-48

49 - Indiana 1976 allowed by Indiana 2002, 72-49

Biggest Blowout in our Value Add Basketball Games:

38 points - UConn 2023 beat St. Peter's 2022 by 77-39

34 points - Villanova 2018 beat Creighton 2020 by 81-48

33 points - Gonzaga 2017 beat UCLA 2006 by 81-48

33 points - Virginia 2019 beat Maryland 2002 by 97-64

32 points - Duke 2010 beat Wake Forest 2005 by 89-57

31 points - Kansas 2008 beat St. Joe's 2004 by 83-52

Verified Offensive And Defensive Ratings Added to Top of Teams - UConn 2023 vs. St. Peter's vs 2022

We have started to go through all of the team sheets to verify any tweaks needed to the dunk ranges, and to make it easier when you play the game we are listing a line across the top of the team sheet as shown below. 

We have made it through the first 27 pages of List A, listing the Offensive Rating (AdjO) and Defensive Rating (AdjD) of each team, and then to combined Game Rating - which is the first number minus the second number times 100 and then minus 17. The + or - number tells you how many points per 100 possessions each team is better or worse than the average team in the game.

If we have actually verified the exact numbers for a given team using the dunk calculator, like with the top seed in our current tournament (defending champions UConn) and their first tournament opponent (St. Peter's Cinderella Final 4 team from 2022) then we put "Verified" to let you now there will be no changes for cards. However, we applied our advanced calculations to see which cards will likely need an adjustment, and in those cases such as California 1959 where we realize the team will probably be upgraded about 3 numbers on the dunk range - in those cases we do what they did on their cards below - put in a temporary adjustment of California's cards from a 51-53 dunk range to a 51-56 range.

Because there is a 31 point gap between UConn and St. Peter's ranks we would expect UConn to be about 31 points better per 100 trips. Of course, basketball games only last about 2/3rds that many possessions, so we might peg UConn as a 20 point favorite.

After three straight tournament games coming down to the wire, we will see if our top seed can handle our bottom seed more easily - or if this will be another UVA vs. last seed.

Coach K's Last Duke Team Rallies Past Murray State Despite Morant's 30 Points

Ja Morant and Murray State dominated Coach Mike Krzyzewski's final Duke squad most of the way. With 18 possessions to play, Morant converted an "and-one" to make him 14 of 15 from the line, give Murray State a 63-56 lead, and give Wendell Moore his 4th foul after Jeremy Roach had already fouled out guarding Morant. Morant would finish with 30 points (see complete box score at bottom,and click Value Add Basketball Game. for the free game).

The game pitted Coach K's last team which made it to the 2022 Final Four, against Ja Morant's debut on the national stage, where his team destroyed Markus Howard and Marquette in the 2019 opening round the year before Morant was name NBA Rookie of the Year. 

Morant's NBA teammate Shaq Buchanan put up 28 points, while Duke had to put three players in the game who were not scheduled to play to cover the extra possessions at Point Guard. Joe Baker had to play the final 12 possessions even though his Stamina is only 6, meaning on the last 6 possessions all numbers were adjusted on against him due to fatigue.

However, with Murray State's other eight players combining for only 20 points, Duke's balance and size wore Murray State down in the end. Mark Williams, with the ultimate 21-26, 23 blocked shot range as a 7-footer, blocked a couple of shots that would have gone into tie the game late, and grabbed a game high 12 rebounds to help Duke to a 32-25 edge on the Boards, and Duke won the last 10 minutes 29-15 to pull the game out 85-78 to advance in our 4th all-time great tournament.

This is our 4th tournament using the all-time great teams in the Value Add Basketball Game. Our first men's all-time 96 greatest teams ever, but limiting each team to one team per century, concluded with Bill Walton's UCLA defeating Michael Jordan's UNC, 66-58 (see men's game log here). In our All-Time Women's tournament we believed the UConn 2010 and 2016 teams were the best two, but in the end it was Pat Summit's 1998 Tennessee 66 defeating Louisiana Tech led by then point guard Kim Mulkey 58. We then created another 50 teams and Paul Pierce' Kansas 1997 team destroyed the last Big Ten Champion (Mateen Cleaves 2000Michigan State) 85-61 for the second title. Those two were not included in the first batch because I had gone with Wilt Chamberlain's Kansas team and Magic Johnson's Michigan State team. On the women's side Pat Summit's Tennessee beat Notre Dame for the title. This tournament is between a third batch of additional teams created to catch a few more great teams from those schools that already had a few in the game, but with a bigger focus on getting new colleges at least one team - particularly making sure any team in one of the major conferences in 2024 have at least one team from their history.

Note: And yes, I am watching the Packers' game on TV like everyone else in Wisconsin as I roll my first dice of the game. I actually find it is easier to play a different board game sport then the sport I am watching TV. Otherwise I have moments where I do things like, "wait, did I just have a double on my game or was that a double in the gam eon TV LOL."

Because we are now making slight adjustments to some teams Dunk Ranges to make the game even more precise, note that I am starting to put at the top of the team if the team's dunk ranges have been "Verified." If this is not the case, and you see an adjustment listed by the team on the top of the google doc, then you can adjust the dunk range up or down by the number specified (biggest improvement possible is a +4, while worst is a -4, but most are unchanged). 

Both teams have a mediocre 0.99 defense A (expected to allow 0.99 points per possession against other great teams in the game), which was better than we expected for Duke 2022 who we improved from a +3 to 0 on the defensive adjustment. The reason Murray State has the same defensive rating but a slightly worse +1 is that their average defensive steals range is 4.2 while Duke's is 3.2 as shown on this dunk range calculator. Therefore Murray State on average steals the ball on a 11-14 and Duke on a 11-13 giving Murray State a slightly edge on defense, so the calculator balances this by giving Duke a slightly better +0 to Murray State's +1 on allowing open drives to the basket and they come out even at a 0.99 AdjD.

The other factors are equal for both teams, which both average 3.6 on blocked shots a 3.2 on defensive rebounds. A 3.0 is the average on all three of these factors, so both are at least above average on all three other defensive factors.

However, on offense Duke's 51-57 dunk range was verified as already accurate, while it turns out Murray State was lowered to no dunk range (their cards are good enough offensively to score the 1.03 per trip, but it takes 7 in the dunk range to get Duke to average 1.13 per trip with completely average dice rolls).

When you put it all together, when Murray State has the ball there is no dunk range so we ignore all rolls of 51-66 and go to the 20-sided die for the result of the shot or foul drawn.

When you go to the Value Add Basketball Game dunk charge, Duke's 51-57 dunk range and the +1 from Murray State's defense adds up to 51-58, but that is really a 51-62 in the game since these are two 6-sided dice so there are no rolls of 57, 58, 59 or 60.

We also wrote in the possessions we plan to play each player and will add it to the cards later. We use a penny on a player in the game who only gets the ball on one if the 1-5 rolls on the 7-sided die. The dimes indicate who also gets it on a 6, 7 or 8, and at the start of the game pictured, Morant gets the ball on a 6 and 7 in addition to a 1. However Duke starts the game with only 2 dimes.meaning a "8" goes.to no one and requires a second roll, and on that roll a 6-8 is a shot clock violation.

Game Results

Pos	Murray State 2019	Actual Stats	Ht	Pts	Reb	Stls	Blks	Fls
1-PG	Ja Morant	24.5 Pts, 5.7 Reb, 10.0 Ast	6'3	30	2	2	1	3
2-SG	Leroy Buchanan	13.0 Pts, 4.2 Reb, 1.7 Ast	6'3	28	4	1	1	3
3-SF	Tevin Brown	11.8 Pts, 4.7 Reb, 2.3 Ast	6'5	4	6	1	0	2
4-PF	Darnell Cowart	10.3 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 1.1 Ast	6'8	3	3	0	0	4
5-C	K.J. Williams	7.6 Pts, 4.7 Reb, 0.5 Ast	6'10	2	4	0	1	1
1-PG	Brion Whitley	3.0 Pts, 0.6 Reb, 0.3 Ast	6'4	0	0	0	0	1
2-SG	Jaiveon Eaves	3.5 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 0.4 Ast	6'2	0	0	0	0	0
3-SF	Brion Sanchious	2.7 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 0.6 Ast	6'8	5	4	0	0	2
4-PF	Mike Davis	3.2 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 0.6 Ast	6'7	4	1	1	1	1
5-C	Devin Gilmore	3.6 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 0.4 Ast	6'6	2	1	0	1	1
	Murray St. Totals	Game Turnovers 11		78	25	5	5	18
Pos	Duke 2022	Actual Stats	Ht	Pts	Reb	Stls	Blks	Fls
1-PG	Jeremy Roach	8.6 Pts, 2.4 Reb, 3.2 Ast	6'1	4	1	1	0	5
2-SG	Wendell Moore	13.4 Pts, 5.3 Reb, 4.4 Ast	6'5	15	2	3	0	4
3-SF	Trevor Keels	11.5 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 2.7 Ast	6'4	16	1	2	0	1
4-PF	Paolo Banchero	17.2 Pts, 7.8 Reb, 3.2 Ast	6'10	19	8	2	2	2
5-C	Mark Williams	11.2 Pts, 7.4 Reb, 0.9 Ast	7'0	10	12	0	3	1
1-PG	Jaylen Blakes	1.0 Pts, 0.7 Reb, 0.5 Ast	6'1	2	1	0	0	2
2-SG	Bates Jones	1.4 Pts, 1.1 Reb, 0.4 Ast	6'8	7	2	1	0	1
3-SF	Joey Baker	4.5 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 0.4 Ast	6'6	2	1	0	0	2
4-PF	AJ Griffin	10.4 Pts, 3.9 Reb, 1.0 Ast	6'6	4	1	0	1	1
5-C	Theo John	2.8 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 0.4 Ast	6'9	6	3	0	0	2
	Duke Totals	Game Turnovers 9		85	32	9	6	21

Can Anyone Stop Indiana State's Bird or UCF's 7'6 Tacko Fall? Final added - 74-70 ISU

Post game update: Scroll to the bottom for the scoresheet on Indiana State's 74-70 survival against UCF. Larry Bird was a perfect 4 of 4 on 3-pointers for a game-high 16 points, but that was well below his average in 1979. He was guarded by Johnny Dawkins son and Michigan transfer Aubrey Dawkins and 7-foot-6 Tacko Fall rejected two of Bird's shots among Fall's six blocks in the Value Add Basketball Game matchup.

However it was the other NBA player on the court in Indiana State point guard Carl Nicks who stole the ball after a UCF offensive rebound with less than a minute left and a 72-70 score. UCF then had to use the "turnover or foul" defense to keep the game from ending. It was Nick's who they fouled after failing to get a steal, and despite being only an average free throw shooter (1-13 made in 20-side die or 65%) Nick's sank them both for the 74-70 final and UCF's final jumper at the horn was no good but irrelevant.

Indiana State advances with the win and will definitely be one of the top 11 seeds remaining so will get a bye to the third round while the 12th to 21st best first round winners will play in the 2nd round to make the Sweet 16.

The following was written before the game, and the scoresheet is at the bottom.

Pre game write up

Perhaps the most fun match-up in the first round of our current 42-team tournament is Indiana State's 1979 Runner-up team vs. Central Florida's (UCF).

For the set-up, Bird may have the best card in the entire Value Add Basketball Game. His "Gets ball on: 3 SF 6&8" means he gets the ball on three numbers on the 8-sided die, or 37.5 percent of the time, and once he gets it he hits a 3-pointer 30% of the time (1-6 on the 20-sided die). Keep in mind that doesnt mean he misses 70% of 3sz but rather 6 of 20 times he gets the ball in the game he makes a 3. Bird is an incredible rebounder on offense and defense (1-8) and has the max steals (11-20 which is the same as 11-16, 31 All) and almost as good at blocking shots (21-26). With the dunk range of 51-56 that could be the best offensive card in the game.

However, Indiana State is only a fair defensive team (+0 on dunk adjustment) and will need to go up against the only player who scores or is fouled on 17 numbers on the 20-sided die in Fall. He makes a 2-point shot on 1-11 and is fouled on 12-17, only missing a shot on an 18-20. His offensive rebound range of 1-9 means anytime a rebound comes up as "high on court" he would grab the rebound even over Larry Bird's defensive 1-8. He never steals the ball, but he does have the maximum blocked shot range of 21-26, 32 all (listed as 21-30 on some teams) which means he blocks a shot on the opposing center on 21-26 and when anyone in the game shoots on a 32. 

At first glance, someone might think his card would produce even more points than Bird's because of only missing on 3 numbers out of 20, but actually it is great but not nearly as great s Bird's for three reasons. First, his stamina is 30 of 44 possessions, so like many big men he is not on the court as much as Bird's 37 of 44. Second, while he goes to the foul line a lot, his free throws made are only good on a 1-7 out of 20 for a 35% free throw range. Finally Central Florida's 51-51 dunk range makes for a very low overall offensive rating due to lighter opponents during the year compared to Indiana State's 51-56 for a high powered overall offense.

Due to Central Florida's tough defense (-2) they hold Indiana State's dunk range down to 51-54, while Indiana State's weaker defense of 0 leaves Central Florida's dunk range for the game at 51-51.

We showed Indiana State's player cards at the top. Below that are the list of Offensive (Adj0) and Defensive (AdjD) overall point expectations of cards, with Indiana State at 1.14 points per trip in the game, and defense (AdjD) at 0.98. UCF is a weaker offense (1.03) but better defense (0.93).  Finaly for the stat nerds we include the calculation of both teams dunk range with formulas available in this google sheet.

We set up the box score at the bottom and will fill it in after the game.

Game Results to follow with conclusion of game.

Box Score. Next to each player there are 4 numbers for points, rebounds, steals and blocked shots. For Bird that was 16 points, 5 rebounds, 2 steals and 1 block. For Fall that was 12 points, 8 rebounds, 0 steals and 6 blocks.

Pos	Central Florida 2019	Season Stats	Ht	Pts	Reb	Stl	Blk	Foul
1-PG	Terrell Allen	6.7 Pts, 3.2 Reb, 4.3 Ast	6'3
2-SG	B.J. Taylor	15.9 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 3.2 Ast	6'2
3-SF	Aubrey Dawkins	15.6 Pts, 5.0 Reb, 1.4 Ast	6'6
4-PF	Collin Smith	8.0 Pts, 5.2 Reb, 1.5 Ast	6'11
5-C	Tacko Fall	11.1 Pts, 7.6 Reb, 0.5 Ast	7'6
1-PG	Frank Bertz	3.1 Pts, 1.4 Reb, 0.5 Ast	6'5
2-SG	Ceasar DeJesus	3.4 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 0.7 Ast	6'2
3-SF	Chance McSpadden	0.9 Pts, 1.9 Reb, 0.4 Ast	6'4
4-PF	Dayon Griffin	4.6 Pts, 2.1 Reb, 1.1 Ast	6'4
5-C	Chad Brown	4.5 Pts, 5.0 Reb, 0.4 Ast	6'9
Pos	Indiana State 1979	Season Stats	Ht	Pts	Reb	Stl	Blk	Foul
1-PG	Carl Nicks	19.3 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 5.0 Ast	6'1
2-SG	Bob Heaton	7.3 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 1.8 Ast	6'5
3-SF	Larry Bird	28.6 Pts, 14.9 Reb, 5.5 Ast	6'9
4-PF	Leroy Staley	7.0 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 0.7 Ast	6'4
5-C	Alex Gilbert	9.6 Pts, 6.1 Reb, 0.4 Ast	6'7
1-PG	Steve Reed	5.0 Pts, 1.9 Reb, 7.0 Ast	6'3
2-SG	Rich Nemcek	1.7 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.6 Ast	6'6
3-SF	Scott Turner	2.1 Pts, 1.1 Reb, 0.3 Ast	6'5
4-PF	Brad Miley	5.7 Pts, 6.0 Reb, 1.6 Ast	6'8
5-C	Tom Crowder	1.9 Pts, 1.3 Reb, 0.2 Ast	6'5

Duke's 90% FT Duo Saves Them From 2014 Nebraska, 75-72

 Nebraska's Terran Petteway torched Duke for 23 points to show how he finished the 2014 season dominating top 10 schools like Michigan State and Wisconsin to give the Cornhuskers 10 of 12 wins to close the regular season with their only NCAA bid of the century.

The Cornhuskers did not have any NBA players that year, and Duke had eight - behind only 1991 UNC and Duke 

Nebraska 2014	Pts	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fouls	Pos	Ht	Actual 2014 Stats
Tai Webster	2	1	2	0	3	1-PG	6'4	3.9 Pts, 2.1 Reb, 2.0 Ast
Ray Gallegos	8	4	3	0	2	2-SG	6'2	7.3 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 1.4 Ast
Terran Petteway	23	4	1	1	4	3-SF	6'6	18.1 Pts, 4.8 Reb, 1.6 Ast
Shavon Shields	10	6	0	0	4	4-PF	6'7	12.8 Pts, 5.8 Reb, 1.6 Ast
Walter Pitchford	9	6	0	2	2	5-C	6'10	9.3 Pts, 4.7 Reb, 0.5 Ast
Benny Parker	8	2	2	3	1	1-PG	5'9	2.4 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.9 Ast
Deverell Biggs	2	1	0	0	1	2-SG	6'1	9.9 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 1.5 Ast
David Rivers	6	2	0	0	1	3-SF	6'7	3.0 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 0.4 Ast
Nathan Hawkins	2	1	0	0	1	4-PF	6'5	1.4 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 0.3 Ast
Leslee Smith	2	4	1	2	2	5-C	6'8	5.4 Pts, 4.8 Reb, 0.4 Ast
11 Neb Turnovers	72	31	9	8	21
Duke 2015	Pts	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fouls	Pos	Ht	Actual 2015 Stats
Tyus Jones	16	2	1	0	1	1-PG	6'1	11.8 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 5.6 Ast
Quinn Cook	12	1	3	0	2	2-SG	6'2	15.3 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 2.6 Ast
Justise Winslow	12	13	2	1	2	3-SF	6'6	12.6 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 2.1 Ast
Jahlil Okafor	10	7	3	1	4	4-PF	6'11	17.3 Pts, 8.5 Reb, 1.3 Ast
Amile Jefferson	8	3	2	1	1	5-C	6'9	6.1 Pts, 5.8 Reb, 0.8 Ast
Rasheed Sulaimon	2	1	0	0	1	1-PG	6'5	7.5 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 1.8 Ast
Matt Jones	2	2	0	0	3	2-SG	6'5	6.0 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 1.0 Ast
Grayson Allen	9	2	0	0	1	3-SF	6'4	4.4 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.4 Ast
Marshall Plumlee	2	4	0	0	1	4-PF	7'0	2.2 Pts, 2.4 Reb, 0.3 Ast
Semi Ojeleye	2	1	0	0	1	5-C	6'8	3.0 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 0.2 Ast
11 Duke Steals	75	36	11	3	17

Petteway tied the score 67-67 with six possessions to play in the Value Add Basketball Game after 3-point specialist Ray Gallegos (1-5 on the 20-sided die is a made 3-pointer) his a 3-pointer the previous possession. With two possessions left, Nebraska changed strategy to play for a 3-pointer, which means shooters add a 3-pointer for every 2-pointer made they can turn to a 2-pointer missed as long as they do not more than double the 3-pointers made. On the 20-sided die, Gallegos normally hits a 3-pointer on a 1-5, and a 2-pointer on a 6-7 - so with this strategy a 1-6 was a made 3-pointer and a 7 turned into a missed show. The ball came to him on a 2 roll (shooting guard) on the 8-sided dice and he drained the clutch shot on a "6" to pull Nebraska to within 70-73, and they got it to him for one last shot on the final roll of the game, but it fell short for a 72-75 loss.

Justise Winslow grabbed his 13th rebound of the game and Duke escaped to our second round. They were saved by 13-13 from the line from their two guards - Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook, both of whom make free throws on a 20-sided die roll of 1-18. Trailing 73-72, Nebraska had to use the "turnover or foul" strategy on the after cutting the lead to 73-72 to create and extra possession below the diagonal line on the final possession to get the ball back. 

When this strategy is used, the 20-sided die is not used since a shot will not happen. The 8-sided die still determines who gets the ball, and then if the two six-sided die (11-66 roll) come up as a turnover in the 41-46 range, or as a steal in the 11-16 range or 31, then there is a turnover but on any other roll the player who got the ball gets two free throws. Jones had already gone 9 of 9, but this intentional foul put Cook at the line to hit the final two to make it 75-72 and make that the final when Winslow grabbed his 13th rebound of the game at the other end.

Duke did drop to 53rd in our rankings which drops them below Rutgers 1976 to make them the 3rd seed for the next round as of now, but other teams who still need to play their first round game can still move up with a win if Alabama 2023 beats last year's Creighton team, Duke's 2022 team beat Murray State, or Larry Bird's 1979 Indiana State team beats Central Florida.

Here is box from the game and below that the top 11 seeds for the second round if the first round ended today (the 12th through 21st seeds will then play in against each other to determine which five winners of a second game advance to the Sweet 16 against the top 11 seeds after one round of play.

19           UConn 2023 still to play St. Peter’s 2019

43           Rutgers - 1976 - Phil Sellers

53           Duke – 2015 – Justise Winslow

60           Gonzaga - 2023 - Drew Timme

61           Kansas - 2022 - Ochai Agbaji

68           Houston 2023 vs Princeton

69           Marquette - 2023 - Tyler Kolek

75           Alabama 2023 vs Creighton 2023

84           Duke 2022 vs. Murray State 2019

85           Marquette - 1994 - Jim McIlvaine

86           Indiana State and Larry Bird 1979 vs Central Florida 2019

Dunk Calculation Reveal in VABG Game - Sample Duke 2015 vs. Nebraska 2014

 This post is more for fellow nerds as I prepare to play my next Value Add Basketball Game - Coach K's last national champions (Duke 2015) vs. Nebraska's only team to make the tournament this century - from the year before Duke's title in 2014.

We originally allowed only one team from each century for each school, but added yet another Duke team when we went through the greatest teams left out so far - though still limiting to just a few teams from each school in our 179 great all time teams. When the 2024 conference realignment was decided we would make sure every team in one of the big five conferences - the Power 5 football plus the basketball-only Big East - and 2014 was the team we chose for Nebraska.

The year before we went through the last couple of tournaments and picked a number of new teams starting with Ja LaMont's 2019 Murray State team. 

Having now added teams in a few waves, we wanted to also go back through and apply the exact same criteria for calculating the Dunk Ranges and defensive equivalent Adj Dunk Range. These are the most important final stat because they adjust for eras of play, and level of competition. Without the dunk range a team with the exact same stats playing SWAC opponents would have the exact same cards as a team with the exact same stats playing in a power conference. The dunk range calibrates very accurately to adjust for how each player would likely do playing against average competition.

We have not detailed how these are calculated until this blog. For starters, this google sheet contains all the calculations that go into the calculations. We are as precise in this as we were in determine that if a team is at home in a game then letting them flip any die result of 36 or 66 for the other would on average adjust to give the home team a 3 point a game advantage in an average game of rolls.

While we are going through the cards using the google sheet above to adjust teams dunk ranges, you can still keep playing with current cards. Only the dunk ranges and adj opp dunk ranges will be adjusted.

To show you the process, we will start with the Duke 2015 cards and calculations.

You go through the top row (starters only). Start with the point guard, Tyus Jones above, and below under "Die 1" you enter 2 for three-pointers made (1-2 range), 4 for two-pointers made (3-6 on his card), 4 for fouled (7-10 on card) then on Offensive Rebounds look at the range at the bottom and he actually has no offensive rebounds so gets a 0. 

Looking further down in the defensive section, you enter 5 for steals (1-5 on card), 1 for blocks (21-21) and 1 for defensive rebounds (1-1). You do this for all 5 positions. Then when you are done, you still need to see who gets the ball on rolls of 6, 7 and 8 and copy just the first four items for the player to the left who gets the ball on those rolls (but do not copy the offensive rebounds over - you can see they are blank below). 

Once all the numbers above the two yellow highlighted rows are entered, you turn your focus to the red number at the top, which are the offensive and defensive Adj (average points per possession the cards should produce when you play the game). 

You look at page 2 of the google doc above to get the target number for the team. The chart showed Duke should produce 1.21 points per trip against average competition, and in fact their dunk range of 51-60 calculated to 10 dunk numbers but that yielded a first red number that was too high. The next is trial and error. We tried lowering each "dunks" number to 9, and when we did that the expected Offensive efficiency did in fact adjust to 1.21. We adjust all the cards in the game for Duke 2015 to a 51-59 dunk range.

Likewise the defensive dunk adjust had been -2 when we first did the Duke cards, but that left their defensive Adj in red below 0.98, so we played with that and 0 is the number that go the number to the target 0.98 for expected points per trip Duke should be expected to give up in the game, so they get a 0 adjustment on defensive, which is just barely average, so weak for the game while the +9 on offense is strong.

Keep in mind that does not mean that a team with a +9 is better than a team with a +4 - it may be a team with a +4 has incredible numbers of 3-pointers made and offensive rebounds etc, and so only needs a slight adjustment on the dunk range to calibrate their offensive to be exactly as good as it should be.

Next we go to their opponent, Nebraska 2014. After all the same steps, Nebraska's dunk range was lowered from a 51-54 dunk range to no dunk range (which we list as 51-50 meaning no numbers to get to their target 0.98 efficiency, which is very weak in the game.

Their adjust dunk opponent range was -1 and that turned out to calculate perfectly to get them to the target 0.98 so no change was made to the card.

Taking all of the above, Duke's offensive dunk range is 51-59, and with Nebraska's -1 makes it 51-58, which actually adjusts in the table in the game shows that is actually a 51-62 in the game. If Duke has the ball and a 51-62 then the player has the option of dunking the ball - which he would take unless the 20-sided die was a 3-pointer made or if it drew a foul on a good player to foul him out of the game perhaps. 

Ironically the Nebraska offense was zero and the Duke defense was also zero, so if anything in the 51-66 dunk range comes up then nothing happens and we ignore and whatever happens on the 20-sided die is the result.

If Duke still had a -2 on their cards and Nebraska had a 0, then the result would be a negative 2, and in that case on the game chart it becomes a 51-52 but that is a STOP range, meaning the player simply misses the shot and the one defending him gets a defensive rebound.

All-time great Teams Reseeded; 1, UConn 2023; 2, Duke 2015; 3, Houston 2021; 4, Alabama 2023

Rating	Great Team, Year, Player	Won	Lost	Score	Allow	Opp SOS	Rating
43	Rutgers - 1976 - Phil Sellers	1	0	97.0	77.0	-9.0	2.0
60	Gonzaga - 2023 - Drew Timme	1	0	86.0	74.0	-6.7	0.7
61	Kansas - 2022 - Ochai Agbaji	1	0	87.0	81.0	-7.9	0.6
68	Marquette - 2023 - Tyler Kolek	1	0	90.0	81.0	-1.8	-0.3
85	Marquette - 1994 - Jim McIlvaine	1	0	80.0	78.0	-1.4	-2.2

The teams above have already advanced as five of the eventual 21 winners in our new tournament. They all shot up in the ratings due to their win, except for Kansas 2002 that dropped after barely surviving against Virginia Tech and Steph Curry's dad Dell Curry. The rating starts as the teams projected SRS better or worse than the average great team in our game, then is adjusted up or down based on a formula similar to that for current teams at www.kenpom.com exceptwe rate the win or loss a little higher.

We did redo the Value Add Basketball Match-ups after our project to recalibrate to get every team's dunk ranges, which adjust for level of competition and era played etc, into one uniform system. Give of our new teams had already played and advanced to our unusual "Round of 21" from which we will reseed.

Here are the other 16 games on the reset schedule.

UConn 2023 passed Duke 2015 for the top spot of the remaining teams after the recalibration. UConn now calculates as the 19th best team of all time and Duke as the 31st of all time. As a result:

UConn now gets the lowest seeded team, the St. Peter's team that made the shocking Elite 8 run in 2022. 

Slipping to the No. 2 seed puts Duke up against the Nebraska 2014 team.

In the latest round of additions we made a special effort to get any teams in one of the big conference who had no team in the game to add the best team we could find from this century.

The No. 3 seed is the Houston 2021 Final Four team, and they get Princeton's 2023 team - giving them a 21st Century team since they already had Bill Bradley's team from the last century.

The No. 4 seed is the 2023 Alabama team, the best team of the regular season though they were outmuscled in the  Sweet 16 by an older squad. We apologize for an error in last week's blog. I typo in one excel cell made us accidentally list Alabama as dropping way out of the top 150 teams of all time. We caught the mistake and they actually rank as the 75th best of all time, and 4th best of these 32 teams.

The #5 and #6 teams have the most history, with Coach K's last Duke team from 2022, and then Larry Bird's 1979 National Runners-up. We only had 31 new teams who had yet to play a game, so we added Indiana State as the most interesting team with only one game played in our game - and they were one of the teams that benefitted from our upgraded system.

Once we have 16 winners from this group we will add them to the five at the bottom who already won, and adjust rankings based on these results and reseed with the top teams then getting the byes. 

Winners in red
 

Tourney	Best Card	Rnk	Champion	Year
1	Adama Sanogo	19	UConn	2023
32	Doug Edert	174	St. Peter's	2022
2	Justise Winslow	31	Duke	2015
31	Terran Petteway	171	Nebraska	2014
3	Quentin Grimes	68	Houston	2021
30	Tosan Evbuomwan	170	Princeton	2023
4	Brandon Miller	75	Alabama	2023
29	Ryan Kalkbrenner	163	Creighton	2023
5	Wendell Moore	84	Duke	2022
28	Ja Morant	161	Murray St.	2019
6	Larry Bird	86	Indiana St.	1979
27	Joey Graham	147	Central Florida	2019
7	DeAndre Kane	90	Iowa St.	2014
26	Brook Lopez	144	Stanford	2008
8	Armando Bacot	96	North Carolina	2022
25	Jared Dudley	143	Boston College	2006
9	Santiago Vescovi	98	Tennessee	2023
24	Shane Larkin	142	Miami	2013
10	Marcus Carr	101	Texas	2023
23	Vic Law	137	Northwestern	2017
11	Semi Ojeleye	107	SMU	2017
22	Brandon Roy	135	Washington	2006
12	Charlie Ward	111	Florida St.	1993
21	JaKobe Coles	129	TCU	2023
13	Jaedon LeDee	114	San Diego St.	2023
20	Tony Carr	128	Penn St.	2018
14	JD Notae	115	Arkansas	2021
19	Markquis Nowell	126	Kansas St.	2023
15	Logan Johnson	117	St. Mary's	2023
18	Jack Nunge	124	Xavier	2023
16	Norchad Omier	118	Miami	2023
17	Johnell Davis	119	Florida Atlantic	2023