Saturday, October 12, 2024

NL Statis-Pro Season Wrap, Dodgers and Guardians Advance in Statis-Pro and Real MLB

The Statis-Pro National League regular season came to an exciting conclusion. Playing the injury-free "what if" format the Dodgers dominated the 48-game Statis-pro season at 33-15, and they join the Cleveland Guardians as the two teams alive in both the real MLB playoffs and Statis-pro.

However Arizona was eliminated the last day of the actual season but in Statis-pro defeated Cincinnati on the final day to take the last wildcard spot.

Atlanta, the second most injured team behind the Dodgers according to Fangraphs, got past Milwaukee in the last game to take the NL “East”.

The regular season MVP goes to Shohei Ohtani, and the legend kept growing as he just went 3 for 4 with a homer to even their playoff series with Arizona (see below).

He hit for a .311 avg (7th), 15 HR (3rd), 50 RBI (1st), 1.057 OPS (1st), .658 Slugging (2nd), 17 2B’s (2nd),19 2-out RBI (3rd), 125 total bases (2nd). See all the leaders' lists in the previous blog.

The Cy Young award goes to Zack Wheeler, who will next face the runner up for the Cy Young Strider in the other NL Statis-pro series.

In 12 starts, he posted a 10-0, 2.44 ERA, he led the league with 81 innings pitched. 0.87 WHIP (1st), Strikeout/Walk ratio 100/11 (2nd), Batting Avg Against .199 (4th)

NL “East”

Atlanta               29-19

Milwaukee        28-20

Philadelphia     26-22

Chicago             23-25

Miami                 15-33

 

NL “West”

Los Angeles      33-15

San Diego          26-22

Arizona               25-23

Cincinnati         24-24

San Francisco  21-27

 

Wildcard

Milwaukee        28-20

Philadelphia     26-22

San Diego          26-22

Arizona               25-23

Cincinnati         24-24

Chicago             23-25

San Francisco  21-27

 

The playoffs have started!

 

Wildcard (best of 5)

Arizona sweeps out the Brewers in three straight.

The Diamondbacks led the league in 2-out RBI’s and that continued in this series.

They scored 14-runs in three games and eight of them came with two outs.

Arizona pitching shut down Milwaukee allowing just four runs in three games.

 

Phillies advance past pivotal game five

The two hottest teams down the stretch the Phillies and Padres went the distance in the best of five.

Zack Wheeler followed up his great regular season with two amazing starts going eight innings in each and only allowing three runs total. (16 IP/3 ER)

He wins game one and game five while Nick Castellanos drove in seven runs during the five games.

 

NLDS (Best of 7) - Arizona vs. Los Angeles

Arizona’s pitching continued to cause trouble in game one, shutting down the vaunted Dodger offense for a 6-1 win.

Jordan Montgomery pitched six strong innings to lead the way.

In game two, the Diamondbacks built a 3-0 lead, but the Dodger offense finally got going and erupted for a six-run fifth inning and rolled to an 8-4 win.

Shohei Ohtani went 3-4 with a HR.  The series is tied 1-1 and shifts to Arizona.

 Philadelphia vs. Atlanta

The Braves showed no signs of rust as they crushed the Phillies 11-3 in the series opener. Austin Riley went 2-5 with a HR and 4 RBI’s. Max Fried was solid in pitching six innings to get the win. Game two will feature the pitching matchup of the year as Zack Wheeler will face Spencer Strider, the top two in the Cy Young Race. Wheeler 10-0, 2.44 vs. Strider 9-2, 2.54.

 

Since we played our season without injury - using the Statis-Pro cards of players even if they were on DL etc., you would expect teams in Statis-Pro to play closer to how many games they would have won if they had only an average number of injuries.

This FanGraphs piece calculated the number of wins a team likely lost due to injury (based on the WAR of players in games they missed. 

We then used that figure to adjust each teams record. Keep in mind the average team loses about 6 games a year due to injuries, so if a team only lost 3 games due to injuries they actually were fairly lucky and we would adjust their wins DOWN by 3 to say if they had average injuries they would have lost three more games - whereas if they lost 9 games to injuries then we would have said they were hard hit by injuries and would have won three more games.

The LA Dodgers were by far the most hurt by injuries of all teams, enough to take 14 wins from them, so while it is true this is one of the biggest seasons of parity in MLB history - if no team had any injury (or all teams had average injuries) we would have expected the Dodgers to be 11 games better than any other team in baseball and go 106-58. Therefore it is no surprised they dominated the Statis-Pro season with no injuries to go 33-15. 

In Statis-Pro their 33-15 mark was a 0.688 winning percentage. If all teams had equal injuries we would have expected them to go 106-58 for a 0.654 winning percentage, and if they had no injuries we would have expected 112-52 for a 0.691 winning percentage - basically the same as they had in Statis Pro.

Inj Adj   Est. Wins if Average Injuries     Average Inj          Act WAct LAct Win%
1Los Angeles Dodgers106 98640.605
2New York Yankees95 94680.580
3Milwaukee Brewers95 93690.574
4Philadelphia Phillies93 95670.586
5San Diego Padres93 93690.574
6Atlanta Braves93 89730.549
7Cleveland Guardians92 92690.571
8Baltimore Orioles90 91710.562
9Arizona Diamondbacks90 89730.549
10Houston Astros90 88730.547
11New York Mets88 89730.549
12Boston Red Sox84 81810.500
13Detroit Tigers83 86760.531
14Seattle Mariners83 85770.525
15Chicago Cubs83 83790.512
16Kansas City Royals82 86760.531
17Tampa Bay Rays82 80820.494
18St. Louis Cardinals81 83790.512
19Minnesota Twins81 82800.506
20San Francisco Giants80 80820.494
21Texas Rangers78 78840.481
22Cincinnati Reds77 77850.475
23Pittsburgh Pirates76 76860.469
24Toronto Blue Jays71 74880.457
25Oakland Athletics69 69930.426
26Washington Nationals68 71910.438
27Miami Marlins65 621000.383
28Los Angeles Angels61 63990.389
29Colorado Rockies59 611010.377
30Chicago White Sox41 411210.253



Statis-Pro NL Update - Leaders and Playoff Series

We have a great wrap up of the NL Statis-Pro season in Montana to be posted next, but first we are going to report the incredible stats he keeps with new software.

Both of our Statis-Pro seasons are down to 4 teams.

Shohei Ohtani went 3 of 4 with a Home Run to get the LA Dodgers to a 1-1 tie with the Arizona Diamondbacks, who missed out on the actual playoffs the last game of the season in a basic 3-way tie for the last two spots.

The other most injured team this season the Atlanta Braves have a 1-0 lead in the "what if" Statis-Pro season (with no injuries), and now have the ultimate battle of the top two Statis-Pro pitchers this season with Zack Wheeler of the Phillies vs Spencer Strider of the Braves.

We posted the four AL final teams in the previous post.

Below we list the leaders in each category in red, followed by the next few in that category. At the bottom we list the key number on each of the leaders Statis-Pro cards, which can be viewed here.

 
Cat                  Rnk    Player (48 Games, NL)     Tm        Stat                  
BA1stBryce HarperPhl0.354
BA2ndNoelvi MarteCin0.343
BA3rdLuis Arraez SD0.338
BA4thKetel MarteArz0.328
BA5thFreddie FreemanLA0.327
OPS1stShohei OhtaniLA1.057
OPS2ndMookie BettsLA1.047
OPS3rdKetel MarteArz0.979
OPS4thMatt OlsonAtl0.947
Slug1stMookie BettsLA0.663
Slug2ndShohei OhtaniLA0.658
Slug3rdPatrick WisdomChi0.634
Slug4thKetel MarteArz0.591
HRs1stMookie BettsLA20
HRs2ndPatrick WisdomChi16
HRs3rdShohei OhtaniLA15
HRs4thMax MuncyLA15
RBI's1stShohei OhtaniLA50
RBI's2ndMookie BettsLA46
RBI's3rdMax MuncyLA42
RBI's4thAustin RileyAtl41
SB1stRonald Acuña Jr.Atl30-31
SB2ndChristian YelichMil23-31
SB3rdCorbin CarrollArz20-21
SB4thTJ FriedlCin20-24
BA RISP1stTJ FriedlCin0.414
BA RISP2ndBryson StottPhl0.400
BA RISP3rdAlec BohmPhl0.394
BA RISP4thCorbin CarrollArz0.389
2-out RBI1stLourdes Gurriel Jr.Arz22
2-out RBI2ndMookie BettsLA20
2-out RBI3rdMarcell OzunaAtl20
2-out RBI4thShohei OhtaniLA19
Runs1stMookie BettsLA47
Runs2ndFreddie FreemanLA45
Runs3rdCorbin CarrollArz44
Runs4thMatt OlsonAtl43
Ks1stChristopher MorelChi72
Ks2ndNick CastellanosPhl72
Ks3rdMax MuncyLA71
Ks4thKetel MarteArz65
TB1stMookie BettsLA136
TB2ndShohei OhtaniLA125
TB3rdKetel MarteArz117
Hits1stNoelvi MarteCin70
Hits2ndLuis Arraez SD69
Hits3rdMatt McLaneCin66
2B1stNoelvi MarteCin19
2B2ndShohei OhtaniLA17
2B3rdWilliam ContrerasMil17
2B4thOrlando ArciaAtl16
ERA1stFrankie MontasMil2.00, Rec 8'-1
ERA2ndZack WheelerPhl2.44, Rec 10'-0
ERA3rdClayton KershawLA2.44, Rec 7'-1
ERA4thSpencer StriderAtl2.54, Rec 9'-2
ERA5thMichael KingSD2.58, Rec 5'-2
Ks1stSpencer StriderAtl135
Ks2ndHunter GreeneCin106
Ks3rdMichael KingSD102
Ks4thZack WheelerPhl100
WHIP1stZack WheelerPhl0.87
WHIP2ndSpencer StriderAtl0.92
WHIP3rdMichael KingSD0.96
WHIP4thYu DarvishSD1.02
BA Against1stMichael KingSD0.187
BA Against2ndSpencer StriderAtl0.188
BA Against3rdClayton KershawLA0.191
BA Against4thZack WheelerPhl0.200
K/W1stCristopher SánchezPhl72-7
K/W2ndZack WheelerPhl100-11
K/W3rdJoe MusgroveSD84-12
Svs1stDevin WilliamsMil15-16
Svs2ndRaisel IglesiasAtl15-17
Svs3rdPaul SewaldArz13-16
BA1stLos Angeles 0.270
BA2ndAtlanta 0.267
BA3rdPhiladelphia 0.267
BA4thCincinnati 0.266
HR1stLos Angeles 84
HR2ndAtlanta 75
HR3rdChicago 74
HR4thPhiladelphia 62
OPS1stLos Angeles 0.832
OPS2ndAtlanta 0.799
OPS3rdPhiladelphia 0.761
OPS4thCincinnati 0.753
BA RISP1stPhiladelphia 0.323
BA RISP2ndLos Angeles 0.299
BA RISP3rdCincinnati 0.285
BA RISP4thArizona 0.279
2-out RBI1stArizona 117
2-out RBI2ndMilwaukee 112
2-out RBI3rdPhiladelphia 104
2-out RBI4thLos Angeles 102
SB1stMilwaukee 43-56
SB2ndCincinnati 40-46
SB3rdPhiladelphia 37-46
SB4thAtlanta 35-37
ERA1stSan Diego 3.69
ERA2ndAtlanta 3.81
ERA3rdLos Angeles 3.89
ERA4thChicago 4.13
HR Allow1stAtlanta 51
HR Allow2ndSan Diego 53
HR Allow3rdArizona 56
HR Allow4thLos Angeles 56
WHIP1stLos Angeles 1.15
WHIP2ndSan Diego 1.16
WHIP3rdAtlanta 1.16
WHIP4thArizona 1.23
BA against1stSan Diego 0.227
BA against2ndAtlanta 0.232
BA against3rdLos Angeles 0.239
BA against4thArizona 0.242

Here are the key items on each of these Statis-Pro baseball cards that made at least one category above. Batters are listed in alphabetical order below, then pitchers in alpha below that.
   
Batter                            Team                Pos    Bats       Card OPS    HR           Speed    
Ronald Acuña Jr.AtlRFRP0.98731-37A/AAA
Orlando ArciaAtlSSRN0.72027-32E/D
Luis Arraez SD (fr Mia)DHLN0.79633-34D/C
Mookie BettsLA2bRP0.89025-32B/B
Alec BohmPhl1bRN0.75232-35E/C
Corbin CarrollArzRFLP0.82631-35A/AAA
Nick CastellanosPhlRFRP0.75228-34C/C
William ContrerasMilCRP0.80128-34D/C
Freddie FreemanLA1bLP0.89232-36B/B
TJ FriedlCinCFLN0.76126-31A/A
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ArzLFRN0.77734-37D/C
Bryce HarperPhl1bLP0.91127-34C/B
Ketel MarteArz2bSN0.82132-35B/C
Noelvi MarteCinDHRN0.74828-33B/B
Christopher MorelChi (now TB)DHRP0.77724-31A/B
Max MuncyLA3bLP0.78416-24E/D
Shohei OhtaniLADHLP0.91523-32A/B
Matt OlsonAtl1bLP0.89524-32E/D
Marcell OzunaAtlDHRP0.80025-32E/D
Austin RileyAtl3bRP0.86627-35D/D
Bryson StottPhl2bLN0.71832-33B/A
Patrick WisdomChi3bRP0.74016-25D/B
Christian YelichMilLFLN0.78226-31B/A
       
PitcherTeamPBThrowsCard ERAK RangeMax IP
Yu DarvishSD2'-8R4.0624'-427
Hunter GreeneCin2'-8R4.2722'-476
Raisel IglesiasAtl2'-8R3.3523'-482
Clayton KershawLA2'-9L3.6425'-426
Michael KingSD2'-8R3.6822'-455
Frankie MontasMil (fr Cin)2'-7R4.5226'-437
Joe MusgroveSD2'-8R3.6125'-427
Cristopher SánchezPhl2'-7L4.2122'-335
Paul SewaldArz4'-7R3.7823'-462
Spencer StriderAtl2'-9R3.2318'-467
Zack WheelerPhl2'-9R3.5824'-417
Devin WilliamsMil2'-9R3.0517'-442

Click here for links to all the current players as well as the 60 all-time great Statis-Pro baseball teams, and here are the instructions to play your own games.

Friday, October 11, 2024

Astros Booted 11-1 By Cardinals - 2nd Round Set

 The Cardinals took an 8-0 lead for the second straight game, this time chasing Justin Verlander by the 3rd inning.

Unlike Game 1 they didnt let the Astros back in this one, instead cruising to an 11-1 to advance with a 2-game sweet.

The join the Twins, Mariners and the only team to overlap the regular season - the Guardians - as the final 4 teams standing in the AL Statis-pro playoffs. The Cardinals and Mets competed in the AL this season because they were relegated from the NL statis-pro league early in the season when my friend was getting his season going, but by the time I'd started they'd improved enough that i claimed them.

Game 1s - St. Louis at Seattle

Cleveland at Minnesota



Cardinals Take 8-0 Lead, Cling to 10-9 Win As Tucker's Potential Game Winning Drive Falls Foul

 The St. Louis Cardinals chased Framber Valdez to take a 8-0 lead in the 2nd inning, then barely survived for a 10-9 win in Game 1 of our playoffs.

The cards needed closer Ryan Helsley, who came in and struck out the first two Astros in the 9th.

However lefty pinch hitter Jon Singleton had an infield single on an "11" that would have been a strike out if he were right-handed. He moved to second base on a wild pitch.

The No. 9 hitter Trey Cabbage, who had led the comeback with an rbi double and 3-run homer, hit a routine grounder to shortstop that was thrown away to cut the lead to 10-9 and put Cabbage on second base.

That brought up Kyle Tucker who drew a clutch batting (BD), which means the next card of 11-17 would be a game-tying double, an 18-38 would be a walk off homer, and a 41-88 would be a foul. It was a 66 for a foul, and then Helsley struck him out to take the Game 1 win 10-9.



Guardians Win Game and Statis-Pro Series 2-1

 The Cleveland Guardians advanced in the Statis-Pro playoffs the day before they hope to do the same in the real playoffs.

After the offenses dominated the first two games, the two PB 2-8 No. 3 pitchers threw quality starts for a pitchers duel with the teams combining for only 7 hits.

For the second time the Game 1 injury to Brayan Rocchio was a blessing in disguise as light hitting Gabriel Arias' great E3 rating at shortstop preventing a key error. In game 1 he turned a double play on what would have been a error and in this game he caught a line drive in the second inning with a runner on second base. 

Grayson Rodriguez retired the first 11 Guardians before Josh Naylor broke up the perfect game with a double to left. Kyle Manzardo then hit a ball back at the pitcher  that required a clutch defensive play that went through for an RBI single.

In the bottom of the 4th, the Orioles answered with one swing of the bat as former White Sox DH Eloy Jimenez homered to make it 1-1.

The Guardians then used a strategy rarely used any more - the hit and run - to score in the top if the 5th.

Tyler Freeman walked and the light-hitting used his Hit & Run 2 (the best contact rating) to ground a single through the right side opened up by Freeman breaking for second base. Arias then broke for second and future hall of famer Jose Ramirez grounded the ball to first with no chance at the double play as Freeman scored the final run for a 2-1 lead.

While former Oriole Alex Cobb dominated his former teammates for a 2-hitter, he hit his max 6 IP meaning he came out as a PB 2-7 to start the 7th inning. He hit Jimenez with a pitch (yes the at bat after he homered) to lower to a PB 4-7 with the heart of the lineup coming up, so the Guardians went with dominant closer Emmanuel Clase - a PB 2-9.

Clase got out of the inning but allowed one runner to take his RR (endurance) to 0 which made his PB 2-8. He then went through the 8th inning 1-2-3 to only drop to PB 2-7 if he came out for the 8th, but instead Logan Allen came in with a PB 2-7 and retired the Orioles 1-2-3 for the save and send the Guardians onto face the Mariners.

The Twins await the winner of our final opening round series - the Cardinals vs. the Astros.




Thursday, October 10, 2024

Orioles Rally to Force Decisive Game 3 vs. Guardians in Statis-Pro

Saturday the Cleveland Guardians will play a deciding 5th game against the Detroit Tigers to advance in the playoffs. In our Statis-Pro Baseball "what if" season they will also play a deciding playoff game - in this case against the Baltimore Orioles.

However, the Statis-Pro version let it slip away.

The Guardians exploded early in Game 1 for a 5-1 lead after two innings, and won 7-4 in the opener.

They appeared en route to a sweep when they jumped on Zach Eflin with the most improbable of home runs. Eflin is a PB 2-9, meaning he only leaves the play on the batter's card one in six times, which he did to the light hitting Tyler Freeman. Once on the card Freeman only has one home run number of the 64 - a 33 in the 11-88 range, and combined that means Freeman would hit a home run against Eflin one of every 384 times. However, this is what happened in the 2nd inning of Game 2 for a 3-run homer to take a 3-1 lead. 

The Guardians stretched the lead to 5-1 with another unlikely hero in Gabriel Arias, who came in only because Brayan Rocchio was injured by a line-drive in the 1st game. Arias was actually fortunate in Game 1 because he is a better fielder, and in the 8th inning he turned a double play on a grounder with an E5 - which would have been an error for Rocchio but was a double play for the E3 Arias.

However, the Orioles Gunnar Henderson hit a 3-run homer to key a 5-run 5th inning to make it 6-5 Baltimore en route to a 9-5 win that tied the series to set up Game 3.

Box score for the two games starts with the shocker, Cleveland's best player Jose Ramirez, who hits homers on a 31-35, went 0 for 8.

To recap our alternate world "what if" Statis-Pro season, unlike the real world both New York teams fell just short. The Yankees never trailed against the Mariners, except for the very end of Games 1 and 3 when Seattle hit walk off homers (the last by J-Rod) to advance.

Like in real life the Mets played Great Lakes teams, but unlike the real world where they beat the Brewers before going onto beat the Phillies, the Statis-Pro version fell in the final game to the Twins

The last opening 3-game series will be the St. Louis Cardinals at the Houston Astros.

Cleveland Guardians                      OPS     Pos   HR      AB  R   H    RBI    Notes            
José Ramírez0.8583b31-358200SB
Andrés Giménez0.762b31-347230 
Josh Naylor0.8121b32-368030 
Kyle Manzardo0.767DH25-287341HR
Lane Thomas (fr wsn)0.751RF27-328243HR
Bo Naylor0.739C23-2671202B
Steven Kwan0.736LF32-338010 
Brayan Rocchio0.686ss31-322000 
Gabriel Arias0.686ss25-2840112B
Tyler Freeman0.704cf33-3382232B,HR
George Valera0.689DH23-251000 
    68122080.294
         
Pitchers Game 1ERAPBKIPHRERW & K
Shane Bieber3.732'-826'-4375441 & 6 W
Gavin Williams4.184'-723'-4110001 & 0 H
Emmanuel Clase3.012'-924'-4210000 & 0 Sv
Pitchers Game 2ERAPBKIPHRERW & K
Triston McKenzie3.982'-824'-424.74552 & 3
Tanner Bibee4.022'-725'-411.34111 & 2 W
Logan Allen4.122'-724'-370.33330 & 0
Gavin Williams4.184'-723'-411.70000 & 0
Series Totals and ERA   171613136.88
         
Baltimore OriolesOPSPosHRABRHRBINotes
Cedric Mullins0.741CF31-3363102 SB, 3W
Gunnar Henderson0.818ss27-339133HR
Eloy Jiménez (fr CWS)0.812DH28-3492202B
Adley Rutschman0.815C31-348140 
Anthony Santander0.788RF27-337232HR
Ryan Mountcastle0.7731B28-348210 
Ramón Urías0.7093b31-3372332B, 3B, HR
Jordan Westburg0.7432b28-337000 
Heston Kjerstad0.734LF31-347001 
    68131790.250
         
Pitchers Game 1ERAPBKIPHRERW & K
Corbin Burnes3.622'-823'-4344533 & 3 L
Trevor Rogers4.072'-726'-4322220 & 2
John Means4.354'-727'-3622001 & 0
Yennier Cano3.664'-725'-4111000 & 0
Pitchers Game 2ERAPBKIPHRERW & K
Zach Eflin (fr TBR)3.512'-926'-4344542 & 2
Kyle Bradish3.822'-726'-4333000 & 3
Craig Kimbrel4.084'-721'-4511001 & 0
Seranthony Domínguez (fr PHI)4.064'-723'-4310000 & 0
Series Totals and ERA   18171294.50



Statis-Pro Playoff Series Added: #8 Cleveland at #1 Baltimore & #7 St. Louis at #2 Houston

We originally had the Astros and Orioles getting byes for our Statis-Pro Baseball Playoffs. However, because we were not able to finish our season after cutting it down to the top eight teams, we decided the 7th and 8th place teams to that point deserved to get a shot at the top two since their games were denied.

Presidential years are tough for me professionally this time of year as I'm running political bus tours etc., so here goes.

#8 Cleveland's season is extended, as they get to play a best-of-3 at #1 Baltimore.

#7 St. Louis also is extended, as they play a best-of-3 at #2 Houston.

You can pull up the rosters we froze after the trading deadline from this google sheet, or use the PDF links in the instructions below.  (4 teams pictured below)

Click here for links to all the current players as well as the 60 all-time great Statis-Pro baseball teams, and here are the instructions to play your own games.