Saturday, October 20, 2018

Statis-Pro Clutch Defense: See Charts Below for Result of Play

An exciting aspect of Statis-Pro Baseball is the chance of a defender needing to make a clutch play. This only applies if men are on base and instead of a number by the PB spot on the Fast Action Card comes up or in the dice version the 20-sided die comes up as a "20" and the two 6-sided die equal between 5 and 9.

When this happens, the next step is to determine which fielder will try to make a great play, or perhaps misplay the ball. In the dice version, the combination of the two six-sided dice determines which player, but in the Random Card version another card must be flipped and the position by the "CD" determines which player attempts to make the play.

Look at the fielder's card, and locate whether he is a CD 1, 2, 3 or 4. Then find his position on the chart below and look at the two 8-sided dice to see the number from 11 to 88 - or if using Random Cards then flip another card to get a number from 11 to 88. Find the position below, the CD of 1 to 4 and the number of 11 to 88 and read the result of the play:


Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Oct. 12: Democrats Project 218-217 Lead based on process using Sabato, NY Times, Silver

So far the NY Times district-by-district polling of Sabato's toss-up districts is breaking the Republicans way and pointing to them losing only 218-217 in the House as of October 12 at 2:30 p.m. One example of the apparent across-the-board shift to Republicans from the Kavanaugh testimony to confirmation is GOP Lee Zeldin in New York. He was slightly behind, causing me to temporarily add that poll to the list below and give the Democrats a 219-216 lead, but voters steadily moved his way to such an extent that he fnished the poll nine points ahead.

October 11, 7:30 p.m. note - its dangerous to count incomplete polls, but based on the New York Times we flipped two seats. This switches PA-1 to Democrat (a -12 for Democrat up 12) and Minnesota-8 to Republicans (+25 so GOP up an incredible 25 points) to still leave the House 218 to 217 in favor of the Democrats.

I'm tracking the Senate here. The NY Times just got going on Senate polls, and the GOP had a double-digit lead in Tennessee and almost as big a lead in Texas.

The methodology we went with from day one was the same; 1) go with the Party Sabato forecasts as winning the race, 2) chance that only if the New York Times poll is run to pick (or in one case reverse) Sabato's projected winner, and if neither side has the edge through #1 and #2 then, 3, go to Nate Silver's projection and take the most current poll he records.


StateCDGOP leadNum. ratingBased on
CA10-2DemocratNate Silver
CA252RepublicanNY Times Poll
CA392RepublicanNate Silver
CA45-5DemocratNY Times Poll
CA483RepublicanNate Silver
IA3-1DemocratNY Times Poll
IL61RepublicanNY Times Poll
IL121RepublicanNY Times Poll
KS2-1DemocratNY Times Poll
KS3-10DemocratNY Times Poll
KY61RepublicanNY Times Poll
ME25RepublicanNY Times Poll
MI83RepublicanNY Times Poll
MN110RepublicanNate Silver
MN2-12DemocratNY Times Poll
MN825RepublicanIncomplete NY Times
NC95RepublicanNY Times Poll
NJ3-10DemocratNY Times Poll
NJ71RepublicanNY Times Poll
NM2-1DemocratNY Times Poll
NY19-3DemocratNate Silver
NY22-2DemocratNate Silver
OH19RepublicanNY Times Poll
PA1-12DemocratIncomplete NY Times
TX73RepublicanNY Times Poll
TX2316RepublicanNY Times Poll
VA28RepublicanNY Times Poll
VA74RepublicanNY Times Poll
WV36RepublicanNY Times Poll
1.4Average GOP

Of the 1 tied race and 6 unpolled race above, I went back and looked at the most recent adjusted poll on Nate Silver's page. In those races the GOP goes 5-2, losing only the two New York races, which would give the GOP a 218-217 win.

Monday, September 24, 2018

GOP 22-2 in October Senate Polls Needed to Get from 47 to 54 Seats

I've been updating the outlook for control of the House (click here).

Nate Silver weights every new poll based on if the firm leans more Democratic of Republic. Since the Kavanaugh hearings the landscape has changed, but Silver keeps adjusting for new polls that come out but we're run before Kavanaugh.

If you just look at polls on his list that we're run for the most part in October, the GOP is 22-2 in the seven races they need to get from 47 to 54 Seats. In all 7 races the GOP candidate leads the majority of polls:

47 seats definitely GOP
48. North Dakota 1-0 (ahead in one poll, not behind in any) by an average of 10.4 points.
49. Tennessee 3-0, 7.5
50. Texas 7-0, 6.5
51. Nevada 3-0, 4.0
52. Arizona 4-1, 1.6
53. Florida 2-0, 0.3
54. Missouri 2-1, -0.4

Indiana, Montana and West Virginia have not been polled and look tougher for the GOP, but gives a ceiling if 57.






Below are old notes:
 and here is how the Senate looks based on the trend of polling over time. It looks like the GOP's chance to expand their edge in the Senate is including after the Kavanaugh charges and defense. All four key races in which Kavanagh has been polled show his confirmation supported and thus making a Republican win more likely.

October 7 update - The day after Kavanaugh became a member of the Supreme Court, it appears the hearings gave the GOP a very solid 50 seats, with North Dakota, Texas and Tennessee all moving strongly to the Republican. The next 6 seats certainly look close, and I grade the GOPs chances as a "B" to take Missouri to get to 51, a "BC" to probably sneak out close wins in Florida and Indiana to get to 53. They may fall just short in Arizona, Montana and Nevada, (Grade CD below) but winning those as well would take them to 56 seats.

Only one poll in Arizona shows the GOP winning, but the fact that support for President Trump, Kavanaugh, ICE and particularly the GOP candidate are all strong, it would seem she has a decent chance to sneak across the finish line. The fact that Senator Flake endorsed McSally before the primary is an interesting dynamic, as she was one of the few to overcome a Trump-endorsed candidate in a primary. It would seem Trump campaigning in Arizona to add to Flake's support might complete the picture for her.


StateNDTXTNMZFLINAZMTNVWVNJMN
Jan-Apr-31-21
May-4
June4-8-7
July-3-10-2
Aug 1-100-12
Aug 11-2044-6-6
Aug 21-1-200-6-8
Sept 1-10412-1-9
Sept 11-2049-1102-5-2-2-12-7
Sept 21-302-3-4-4
Oct 1-1012670-1-2-1-4-9
GOP if wins484950515253545556575859
GOP chancesAAABBCBCCDCDCDDFF
StateNDTXTNMZFLINAZMTNVWVNJMN

I used bold italics for numbers that include CNN polls, which has been so much skewed toward the Democrats than other polls.

I start by putting the polls (or the average of polls) listed in chronological order from the oldest poll on top to most recent on the bottom, then if there is a Kavanagh poll from after the charges made against him I include that at the bottom.

Republicans get to 47 seats based on simply seats not up for re-election or seats in which the Democrat has never been within single digits.

GOP looks strong for 48th and 49th seats based on trend. 

48. Texas. As much as the Democrats hope to take out Ted Cruz, and the Republican was only a 1 points ahead in late August. However, that went to +4 in early September and +9 in mid-September, so it looks to be on a strong trend line for Cruz.

49. North Dakota. Likewise, after trailing by 3 points early in the year (-3), the Republicans led by 4 by June and were still up by 4 in mid-September, so it looks like North Dakota will give the GOP 49 seats. Oct 2 Note - this looks more likely with a new poll showing Cramer now +10, and the state supporting Kavanaugh 60-27.

GOP also on course for three more challenger wins to get to 52.

With Flake leaving, Republicans would feel very strong if they got to 52 votes for times when they lose a vote on the floor in Maine and Alaska, particularly if there are other US Senate votes. The trend for three other challengers seem to give them a good shot at three.

50. Indiana. Trailing by 12 in early August (-12), then 6 in late August (-6) and now up 2 by mid-September (+2) is the most lightning fast shift in favor of the GOP and seems to give them a very strong shot at the 50th seat and control of the Senate.

51. Missouri. Going from a tie to a one-point win by mid-September gives the GOP a tight edge for the 51st seat. Oct 2 Note - CNN polled Democrat back ahead, but their polls are getting much more Democratic results this year then all others . A state poll showed Hawley moving ahead and more voters saying McCaskill opposition to Kavanaugh will make them LESS likely to vote for her.

52. Florida. Almost the exact same scenario plays out in Florida except that it has been an exact tie in every polling period except for a 1-point lead in early September.

The Republicans do have a very realistic shot at stretching it to 54 seats, but the next two are tougher. Oct 2 update - a couple of recent polls show this edging Democrat so I might drop this to 54 and move the next two up a spot.

53. Tennessee. I will put Tennessee ahead of Montana only because they did lead by 4 points and it is an open seat, however, the 4 point lead in mid-August dropped to a -2 in late August, though it did get back down to -1 in mid-September - so very tight. Oct 2 - Nate Silver does have this as a GOP lean, though he is more bullish on the Democratic candidates in a number of others.

54. New Jersey. After making up almost an entire -21 in New Jersey, the GOP did slip back a little to a -6 in mid-August, so an upset is possible but trend has not continued as of now. October 2 Update: With a new poll showing Republicans within 2 points, I am starting to believe the GOP might win this race in the shocker of the night.

55. Montana. The one on the stronger trend toward a Republican win is Montana, where Tester's lead eroded from 8 points in June, to 3 points in July to 2 points recently. A big debate on Montana PBS could be key but the trend here is toward a GOP win. Oct 2 update - I wonder if north Dakota's overwhelming 60-27 support is close to the number in Montana, and if so if Teaters recently announced opposition to him makes this closer.

56. Nevada. This looks like a seat the GOP will give up even though it's always been within 2 points either way. However, the GOP's +1 early in the year turned into a -1 in early September and -2 in mid-September, so the trend is small but definitely toward the Democrat.

57. Arizona. Going from a 2 point lead to a -5 between early and late September definitely shows this trend away from Republicans, but certainly still winnable.

58. West Virginia. The GOP has polled barely within single digits a few times, but no steady trend and the recent polling is a -12, so this one looks very difficult for the GOP despite being overwhelmingly pro-Trump. October 2 - I moved this up one spot only because the support for Trump and Kavanaugh is so strong and it is possible he could vote with his fellow Democrats against the nomination.

59. Minnesota. Each polling period has the GOP within single digits, but no consistent trend so looks pretty solid for the Democrats to hold.

To get to 60, of course, the Republicans would need to win all the previously listed races AND win some other race in which they had never been within single digits - so just as the GOP seems to start with 47 in the bank the Democrats seem to start with 41 in the bank.

Sunday, September 23, 2018

GAME 7! Statis-Pro 2018 (2017 cards) World Series Winner Revealed

Each game of the World Series using 2017 Statis-Pro player cards with roster updates from 2018 is summarized below in reverse order. Spoiler alert - an incredible season and playoffs comes down to a Game 7 between the Indians (whose cards are from last season when they had the best record in baseball plus the addition of former MVP Donaldson and ace reliever Hand) and the Diamondbacks who had the 3rd best record in the NL last year and added the best rookie reliever in 2018 in Yoshihisa Hirano and the 2017 cards for playoff players Jon Jay (Cubs in 2017) and Eduardo Escobar (Twins).

The following breaks down the pitchers available for the all-hands-on-deck season finale:

Game 7 - Chronological Highlights of deciding Game

Both pitchers work out of early jams. In the 3rd, Bauer gives up the HR to of all people Descalso! A single and a walk later and Bauer is removed. Kluber gets out of the jam. Not wanting too much credit, Descalso commits 2 errors in the bottom of the inning. Encarnacion with the bloop RBI single. After 3 innings, we are tied 1-1...

Corbin continues great work. Indians get 3 shutout innings of relief from Kluber. Olson with a scoreless 6th. Now will they have enough arms? Tension building we are still tied 1-1 after 6.
In the 7th, Rajai Davis lead off 2B, wild pitch, at 3rd, no outs. Corbin gets a K, then Hirano gets 2 more. No real threats in next 2 innings. Game 7 is headed to extra innings. Indians down to just two pitchers left.

In the 10th, Pollock triples, Marte with the RBI single, and Peralta with the crushing 2-run HR off Hand. Bradley closes it. The unlikely 2018 Statis-Pro champions the Arizona Diamondbacks winning game 7, the final 4-1, in 10 innings.


And so the Cleveland Indians, using cards from 2017 plus two superstar additions, fall just short to the Diamondbacks team that likewise added a pitching and hitting star (Twins Eduardo Escobar and rookie Yoshihisa Hirano) from the AL 2017 cards that produced the second best run differential in the AL with a +153 before falling to one of the hottest teams in history in the LA Dodgers.

Game 7 - Pitchers Match-ups

The Indians were extended to seven games by the Yankees which meant our AL Statis-Pro Cy Young award winner had to pitch that game and could only pitch Game 4 of the World Series. However, because we play pitchers can relieve three games after either pitching to 12 batters or starting (or relieve two games after pitching two games after facing 6 batters in relief) Kluber will be available to come into relief with an RR 6 during Game 7.

A quick recap, pitchers have one of five ranges by their PB; 2-9 means elite top 5 percent of pitchers, 2-8 meaning one of the top 15% of all pitchers, PB2-7 meaning strong, PB2-6 meaning mediocre, or PB2-5 meaning poor.

While the Indians do have their weakest 2017 pitcher card starting in Trevor Bauer who was only a mediocre 2-6, and four pitchers are not available, that still leaves the Indians as perhaps the best bullpen ever available in Statis-Pro with four PB2-9 pitchers guaranteeing they can pull Bauer at any early trouble and their other pitcher is closer Cody Allen as a PB2-8.


The Diamondbacks have an edge in lefty starter Patrick Corbin who is a PB2-7, and they did not need to use any relievers for 6 batters or more in Game 6 so only their Game 5 and Game 6 starters (Ray and Greinke) are not available. They do have eight pitchers, though they only have one PB2-9 to the four the Indians can bring in, and they do have two PB2-8 pitchers and three PB2-7 pitchers available, so there is little chance they would need to go to a PB2-6.


Game 6 - DBacks Slam Indians to Force Game 7

On the brink of elimination, Goldschmidt came through again with a 3-run homer in teh first, and then added a triple off Andy Miller to cap a 4-run fifth inning in an 8-3 win that forced a Game 7. Peralta doubled ahead of him both of those at bats. Greinke gave them five decent innings for the win, and that allowed them to let four different relievers go an inning each to have the whole pen and Game 4 starter Godley all ready for Game 7 if needed.



Game 5 - Indians Rally to Take 3-2 Series Lead

While errors are less and less frequent in modern baseball, the Diamondbacks repaid the Indians charity in Game 4 by committing three errors, two of which led to runs that were the difference in a 4-3 Indians win. Donaldson was the hero of the game, driving in all four Indians runs on three different hits - but twice those hits came after Lindor reached on errors. He hit a two-run homer in the third that looked like it might be the game winner, then added an RBI double in the seventh to make it 3-1 after Lindor reached on an error on a grounder to second and then raced home from first just head of the tag. 

However, Goldschmidt's 2-run bomb off Cody Allen tied the game 3-3 in the bottom of the eight and the Indians were running out of pitchers if the game went extra innings (they carried only 10 pitchers and 15 position players on their World Series roster while the Indians kept 12 pitchers and 13 position players). However, the lightning fast Davis singled and stole second base to lead off the top of the ninth, though he had to hold at third on Brantley's single. With one out, Lindor lined the ball back to Dbacks closer Bradley and it bounced away from him. Davis had to hold at third to avoid teh potential double play and the Dbacks drew the infield in with bases loaded and one out to try to prevent the game-winning run from scoring. Donaldson then hit a grounder past the first baseman to provide the final 4-3 margin, and former Padre Brad Hand recorded the save.



Game 4 - Dbacks Score 2 Unearned off Kluber to tie Series

It would take something unusual to beat Corey Kluber.  The Arizona Diamondbacks got that in the 5th inning of game 4.  Working with a 1-0 lead (Chisenhall solo HR), trouble started with Josh Donaldson's throwing error that set the stage putting runners on 2nd & 3rd with 1 out.  AJ Pollock came through with a big 2-run single and two batters later David Peralta added another RBI single and Arizona had 3-1 lead after 5. Those two unearned runs would prove to be the difference. Overshadowed by Kluber, Zach Godley continued his post-season roll as he shut down the Indians for seven innings.  He finished his start with 2-runners on with two outs in the 7th, and having to face pinch hitter Edwin Encarnacion.  Luckily his hanging curve wasn't hit, and the bullpen took it from there.  Godley is now 4-0 in his 6 post-season starts this year.


Game 3 - Indians Blow Early Chances, Pinch-hit and Relief Secures 3-2 Win to Take 2 Games to 1 Lead

The Indians' tagged Pat Corbin for eight hits but left based loaded in the first and second inning as both bullpens dominated most of the game until Edwin Encarnacion drilled a two-out RBI double in the eights inning as Jason Kipnis raced home from first.

After Corbin and Trevor Bauer were knocked out, the two bullpens settled into a great dual - combining for 10 2/3 innings without allowing a hit besides Encarnacion's double.

Lindor tripled home Brantley then Donaldson doubled home Lindor in the second to make it 2-0 - but in both the 1st and 2nd inning runners decided to stop at third base on two-out hits. In the bottom of the third, the Diamondbacks jumped on Bauer - the only weaker PB2-6 starter in the World Series based on an off 2017 season - for singles by Avila and Pollock and then a 2-run double by Marte. The Indians have always gone to the pen more quickly with Bauer knowing they are often not needed the next day with Corey Kluber starts - and Olson retired Peralta to keep the game tied.

The Indians relief core pitched the minimum 22 batters to get through 6 1/3 innings. The only other baserunner was a walk by Cimber to Descalso in the bottom of the eighth after Encarnacion's go-ahead double, but Hand came in to induce a double play and retire all five he faced for the save.

Hirano unfairly took the loss, retiring the first five he faced before walking pinch hitter Kipnis, who then raced around on the double.

The Indians can take control if AL Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber can win Game 4. The only two relievers who need to skip that game due to facing more than 5 batter are Hirano for the Diamondbacks and Olson for the Indians.



Game 2 - Indians Tie Series 1-1 with 4-3 Win

After Game 1 ended with Francisco Lindor getting thrown out of the game to end a frustrating 5-0 loss, Game 2 started with Pollock hitting a homerun to put the Indians in a 1-0 hole.

However the Indians know if they can get to the latter innings they have the best Statis-Pro reliever cards in baseball. The Indians started the game with two hits to double their total from Game 1. Later Ramirez took Greinke deep for a 2-run homer to tie the game 3-3 after three innings.


The Indians bull pen was unbelievable as usual, with Tyler Olson coming in with bases loaded no outs in the 6th inning and getting a strikeout and double play grounder to start four hitless innings from the pen. Michael Brantley then through with a 2-out RBI double in 7th to give the Indians a 4-3 win and tie the series one game each.

The other option for tracking a Statis-Pro game is to keep marks for players and outs on the board and record results in box score form as below for Game 2.



Game 1 - Indians in Familiar Hole

The first game of the 2018 Statis-Pro World Series marks the second straight series in which the Indians were completely shut down by an opposing starter to fall a game behind. In the ALCS the Yankees Severino allowed only two Indians hits in 11 innings (see summary of series here), and September 23 the surprising Arizona Diamondbacks rode a complete game one-hitter by Robbie Roy to a one-game-to-none series lead. 

The Diamondbacks broke through in the sixth inning when AJ Pollock singled and Ketel Marte doubled him home on a very close play at the plate. The Indians went to Andy Miller,  with the best left-handed reliever Statis-Pro card in the AL based on his 2017 stats, but Miller walked David Peralta and then Paul Goldschmidt drilled a clutch 2-run double to make it 3-0. Jake Lamb doubled in the 9th and Eduardo Escobar drilled a clutch home run to provide the final 5-0 margin.

The last batter of the game provided excitement as the Indians leadoff man Francisco Lindor, who had the only hit of the game, let the umpire know what the Indians thought of his strikezone and he was ejected, forcing Greg Allen to finish the at-bat. 

The Indians use a radically different line-up against right-handed pitchers, so will try it again in Game 2. They will face righthander Zack Greinke who was hit hard both in Game 1 and Game 5 of the NLCS (see summary of series here). Below is how we record Statis-Pro games - much like a scorebook but we do it on an open pad of paper.



That win could be paramount because if they fall behind 2 games to none they would then face a tough pitching match-up in Game 3 facing lefty Patrick Corbin and throwing Trevor Bauer based on his weaker 2017 stats when he was a mediocre PB2-6. Being pushed to the 7th game by the Yankees means they do not get to throw the best starter in the league - Corey Kluber, until Game 4 (against Zack Godley) and that would likely be his only action of the series except for perhaps an inning in relief if the series went seven games.

The Indians Statis-Pro cards appear in this post. The Diamondbacks Statis-Pro cards are show below:



Friday, September 14, 2018

Odds of taking extra base on hit; updated table for Statis-Pro

After pulling together additional data on how rarely runners are thrown out trying to take an extra base on a hit, the following are the best rules to play.

1. If playing with a Statis-Pro Fast Action Deck then a runner should only be thrown out by an outfielder with a T2 (the weakest throwing arm) on an 88, by a T3 on an 87-88, by a T4 on an 86-88 and by a T5 on an 85-88. That means even a T5 will throw out a runner 6.4% of the time, and this is consistent with our earlier piece on only 1.3% of runners on first base being thrown out at 3rd base on a single, and we just reviewed additional data showing that runners going second to home are out only slightly more at 2.9% of the time. Sometimes the decision will be made not to take any chances and send the runners, but this is it. Still, use the charts on whether or not the runner takes the extra base, but if the number is too high to take the extra base but not one of these 85-88 numbers, the simply have the runner stop after taking as many bases as the batter.

2. If playing with dice, the following is the updated chart we are adding to the game.

Die RollRoll for extra base on hit2nd roll if 6 on 1st roll
1OBR A,B,C extra base, others holdTagged out
2OBR A,B extra base, others holdOut if T3, 4 or 5, if not safe
3OBR A extra base, others holdOut if T4 or 5, if not safe
4Second to home score, but 1st to 3rd holdOut if T5, if not safe
5Safe if 2 outs, others holdSafe
6Roll again for close playSafe

Note that runners have a much better chance of going from second to home than from 1st to 3rd on a single. The study actually shows that a runner goes 2nd to home 58% of the time, almost twice as much as the 30% chance of going from 1st to third base. The actual average from 1st to home on a double is slightly closer to the 1st to 3rd on a single - on which the runner makes it a little over 40% of the time according to this study. 

In the dice version of the game, a fast OBR: B runner trying to advance on a mediocre T3 throwing arm will go from 1st to 3rd (or 1st to home on a double) with less than two outs 44% of the time in the game, but from second to home with two outs 78% of the time.

An earlier post covered how we set up the odds of advancing an extra base on a hit in Statis-Pro based on the fact that runners were only thrown out going from 1st to 3rd a total of 1.3% of the time. The following is our new simple chart for attempting to take an extra base on a hit:

Note that the runner can only be thrown out if the first roll is a 6 and then a second roll is lower than the outfielders throwing arm, so rolling for the extra base in the game is almost always worth the shot.

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

Sept 30 Update: Democrat 215, GOP 214 if adding Sabato & NY Times Live Polls; 3 Other Indicators Suggest Strong Democratic Takeover

Oct 2 Note - note on the table below, but NC9, which both Sabato and Nate Silver have as Democrat due to a conservative pastor beating a GOP incumbent, is a +10 GOP through 181 calls. If GOP holds this one it would put my count at 215-215, and it also seems to follow the thread of conservative areas moving to GOP post Kavanaugh (ND and MZ in Senate races).

Start full up update here:
Of the four indicators I review suggest a blue wave taking the House - and the Senate is not impossible. However, first I will cover the one indicators that suggest the Republicans could hold the House:

Sept. 30 update - If you add Larry Sabato's 206-200 Democrat edge and then use the NY Times live polling for his toss-up races,
good news for GOP as NJ7 and CA25 shift to +3 GOP to push them to 220-215 projection. Iowa 1 poll showing big Democrat - but that race already in 206 already counted by Sabato as Democratic.


Based onRepublicanDemocratTie/Toss=up
Sabato1992076
NY Times1481
Total2132157
fff


StateCDGOP leadNum. ratingBased on
CA252RepublicanNY Times Poll
CA45-5DemocratNY Times Poll
CA480Toss-up/tieNY Times Poll
IA3-1DemocratNY Times Poll
IL61RepublicanNY Times Poll
IL121RepublicanNY Times Poll
KS2-1DemocratNY Times Poll
KS3-8DemocratNY Times Poll
KY61RepublicanNY Times Poll
ME25RepublicanNY Times Poll
MI81Republicanincomplete NYT
MN2-12Democratincomplete NYT
MN8-1DemocratNY Times Poll
NC96Republicanincomplete NYT
NJ3-10DemocratNY Times Poll
NJ71RepublicanNY Times Poll
NM2-1DemocratNY Times Poll
OH19RepublicanNY Times Poll
TX73RepublicanNY Times Poll
TX238RepublicanNY Times Poll
VA28RepublicanNY Times Poll
VA74RepublicanNY Times Poll
WV38RepublicanNY Times Poll
0.8
CA10Toss-up/tieSabato
CA39Toss-up/tieSabato
MN1Toss-up/tieSabato
NY19Toss-up/tieSabato
NY22Toss-up/tieSabato
PA1Toss-up/tieSabato
ffff
1) Scoreboard (updated 9/30/2018, 11 p.m.) - Live NY Times polling of House seats rated as a TOSS-UP by Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball shows Republicans going 14-9. When you add those to the races where Sabato gives an edge to the Democrats (206-200) you end up with the Democrats getting 215 seats to 214 for the Republicans in the quest for 218 and control. That leaves six Sabato toss-ups that have either not been polled by the NY Times or are tied.

One interesting note is that three toss-up races that were already in progress before the Kavanaugh and Ford testimonies shifted Republican after the testimonies. Arizona 2 was at a -12 (Democrat lead by 12) and just shifted 1 point to -11, but Ohio 1 went from a 3 to 12 point GOP lead and Virginia 2 went from a 1 to 9 point GOP lead. Not a big sample size and this could be because they started reaching more Republican regions of the districts in question, but an average 6 point shift toward Republicans with other polls showing Republicans potentially being helped or at least staying even in Senate races would seem to at least hurt the narrative that this hurt the GOP.


DistrictGOP - DemocratStatus
Arizona 2-11from -12 to -11
California 252
California 45-3
California 480
Colorado 6-11
Illinois 121
Illinois 61
Iowa 33
Kansas 2-1
Kansas 3-8
Kentucky 61
Maine 25
Michigan 82new and incomplete
Minnesota 2-15new and incomplete
Minnesota 3-9
Minnesota 8-1
New Jersey 3-10
New Jersey 71
Ohio 112from 3 to 12
Texas 238
Texas 73
Virginia 29moved from 1 to 9
Virginia 74
West Virginia 38
Average-0.4GOP average lead in Sabato toss-ups

OLD NOTES NOTE UPDATED

NY Times has three other polls running now that are not in the average above because they aren't sabato toss-ups - they are in the 206-200 Democratic lead already in Sabatos rankings. For example, their email updated tonight showed the big Democratic lead in Iowa 1 - but that and California 49 area already counted in Sabato's 206 Democratic, just as we don't count NY Times polls showing Republicans ahead in Florida 26, Wisconsin 1 and Texas 32 because Sabato already has it in his 200 GOP. The one counter example from the non toss-ups is Iowa 2 where Sabato has a lean GOP but the NY Times gave the Democrat a 1-point lead.

The other three indicators point to a strong win for the Democrats:

2. History: Larry Sabato points out that the average number of House seats lost two years after a party wins the White House is 33 seats - 10 more than the Democrats need to take over the House.

3. Enthusiasm Indicated by Primary Turnout: Many more Democrats are turning out than Republicans in primaries. For example, many Trump supporters noted Minnesota was another primary victory over a Trump opponent with Jeff Johnson's win with 168,495 votes, however, that's only enough votes to finish third in the Democratic primary the same day where 81% more Democrats voted than Republicans (582,811 to 320,252). The silver lining Republican hopes offset this gap is that Trump rallies do have a strong turnout, and while 38% more Democrats voted in the primary in Minnesota 8, Stauber did receive 44,865 in the GOP primary while Radinovich received 30,440 in the Democratic primary.

4. Nate Silver's generic ballot shows Democrats with a 9.1 percent advantage. If that ballot ends up between 6 and 10 points it would point toward Democrats winning the House and Republicans holding the Senate, so as of September 16 at 8 p.m. eastern that would indicate Democrats taking the House fairly easily and even having a shot at the Senate.

Further background written before we started to tally above

The New York Times takes election analytics to another level again. Their election night percent chance of winning is unbelievably great and exciting as you can see the percent chance for each
candidate adjust slightly as new results come in during the night.

(Note: Before anyone who told me Trump was going to "Win by 5 points or more because
no one is telling the pollsters the truth" dismisses the polls - I will remind you that statement
was 7 points off and the Real Clear average of head-to-head polling was just over a point
off and MY September 9, 2016 mass emailed prediction was almost exactly right - Clinton
by 3 in the popular vote, Trump over 290 in Electoral College to win.)

Here are the only two steps you need to follow to have an incredible understanding on which
way Congress is moving:

1. Look at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. As of 10:30 p.m. Eastern on September 11, He
has 29 Congressional races as toss-ups and when you add up the ones he has leading
Democrat or Republican - the Democrats would need to win 12 of 29 toss-ups to take
the House 218-217.

2. Go to the toss-up races the New York Times is incredibly LIVE polling - meaning they
show you the results every time they call a voter and when a voter answers their poll and
based on the voter's geography, age, gender, race etc. they update where the race should
end up. Right now they are polling three races Sabato rate’s as toss-ups, SO since the
Democrats need to win almost half of those races if the three races were even overall it
would mean the Democrats are likely to win the House (because even would tend toward
them getting 14 or 15 of the 29 races) whereas if the GOP averages even a slight lead of
a point or two, then it is likely they could get the 19 of 29 toss-up seats they need.


This is only three races, and the polls are not complete, BUT the first data points to the
GOP holding the House (which is not the same conclusion I’d reach looking only at the
generic ballot where the Democrats have a bigger edge than the +6 the Republicans
could probably withstand to still hold the House.

(original note before adding other three)The Republicans are winning all three toss-up races - by 3, 8 and 8 points, and they
are three different kinds of districts (suburban and rural mix in Richmond VA, Majority
Hispanic district in Texas and strong Trump in West Virginia). An average 6+ point win
for the GOP in three districts that look like toss-ups is good news for Republicans -
but these are early returns and if you keep clicking on these links they will keep updating
whenever they are calling.


UPDATING THE FIGURES THAT WERE HERE AT THE TOP OF THE BLOG REGULARL

If I were just looking at Nate Silver's generic ballot, I would draw the opposite conclusion out of the belief that the Democrats +8.6 is about two points better than they need to take the House, so the two tests lend to opposite conclusions and we should keep watching each of those New York Times polls continue to play out as well as new swing district polls they will add.

Sunday, September 9, 2018

Dbacks Shock Cubs in Game 7 to Face Indians' in World Series

This blog is the home for the 2018 Statis-Pro Championship featuring the 2017 player cards and 2018 rosters. Click here for accounts of the season and playoffs that resulted in the Indians winning the AL title in a thrilling 7-game ALCS and the Arizona Diamondbacks and 3-time defending champion Cubs making it to the NLCS. This link includes a complete free version of the game along with 2018 pitcher and player "cards" in sheet format for all 30 major league teams, with an account of a "sneak preview" single game elimination using those card/sheets.

More than 8,000 baseball fans clicked on this blog with copies of the 2017 traditional cards for the Indians and Yankees appear here with further instructions for first-timers for how to play the game.

The result of the most recent NCLS game or subsequent World Series game will appear first below, and the accounts of the other game in preceding order.

NLCS Games 6 & 7 - Diamondbacks Stun Cubs, Advance to Face Indians in World Series


The Cubs traded grand slam home runs to rally in Game 6 and keep NL Statis-Pro dynasty alive for another day, but then the Diamondbacks pulled off Game 7 to complete their surprise run to the World Series against the Indians.

NLCS Game 5 - Dynasty Not Dead Yet! Cubs Pound 14 Hits to beat Dbacks 9-5


The bats finally awakened as the Cubs pounded 14-hits and jumped on Arizona early.  Anthony Rizzo broke out of his post-season slump going 2-4, with 4 RBI's.  A decent start from Jon Lester gets the job done and gets the Cubs back to Chicago.  Now can Patrick Corbin duplicate his effort from game 2 and get the Diamondbacks to their first ever Statis-Pro World Series?

Chicago    9
Arizona     5

(Diamondbacks lead series 3-2)



NLCS Game 4 - Cubs Must Win 3 Straight to Keep NL Dynasty Alive


The same formula established in Game 3 below plays out in Game 4.  A pair of 2-run HR's in the first from unlikely sources carry the Diamondbacks.  Ketel Marte and Nick Ahmed each went deep.  As for pitching, Robbie Ray has underachieved in the regular season (2-4) and the playoffs (0-2), but finally gives a quality start. (6 IP, 2 ER). Meanwhile, Cole Hamels continues the bad NLCS trend of providing his worst post-season start during this series.

Chicago  2
Arizona   5
(Diamondbacks lead series 3-1)

NLCS Game 3 - Goldsmith Powers Dback to 2-1 Series Lead over Cubs

It is a simple combination of quality pitching and timely hitting and Arizona has it at just the right time.  Zach Godley continues his solid post-season with another quality start (7 IP, 2 ER).  He is now 3-0 in 4 playoff starts this year.  For Chicago, it was bad timing for Jose Quintana to turn in his worst start of the playoffs.  Paul Goldschmidt added another 2 RBI's as the Diamondbacks take the series lead.

Chicago   3
Arizona    5
(Diamondbacks lead series 2-1)




NLCS Game 2 - Corbin's no-hitter ties Diamondbacks and Cubs at 1-1


The Arizona Diamondbacks Patrick Corbin throws a no-hitter in Game 2 of the NLCS.
Once again Statis-Pro illustrates the somewhat random nature of these with Corbin's less-than-overpowering card, but it was his day (several numbers breaking his way).  Arizona got all the offense they would need with a huge third inning when 10 batters went to the plate and four scored.

Patrick Corbin final stats:
He allowed 2-baserunners.
4th: Walk to Kris Bryant. (DP erased this, so he faced one over the minimum)
9th: Error allowed Willson Contreras to reach.

9 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 11 K

Arizona    4
Chicago   0
(Series tied 1-1)

NLCS Game 1 - Former Nat Murphy caps Cubs rally to take 1-0 Lead over DBacks


The Diamondbacks are kicking themselves since they could be looking at a big early series lead.  After Chicago erupted for a 4-run first, Arizona comes all the way back and Jon Jay's 2-out, 2-run pinch-hit single gave them the 5-4 lead after 6-innings.  Bottom of 9th, two outs, runner on first, the Diamondbacks are ready to clinch the opener as Archie Bradley prepares for his 5th straight playoff save.  But Anthony Rizzo's fly ball is misplayed by David Peralta, the run scores and it is extra innings.  In the 10th, Ketel Marte throws one away and puts a runner on 2nd, Daniel Murphy follows with the walk-off hit and the Cubs rally for the win.

Arizona   5
Chicago  6  (10 innings)
(Cubs lead series 1-0)