Sunday, November 26, 2017

NBA Predictor Graph Based on Value Add and Year in School

As we tabulate the most valuable college basketball players in the country at www.valueaddbasketball.com, the following chart gives a first glance at how likely a player is to make the NBA. Other factors such as three stats at www.kenpom.com (DReb%, Stl% and Shot%) as well as combine results are key as well.

However, for a quick estimate take the player's Value Add and his year in school and apply it to this chart. For example, a freshman (blue line) with a 6.50 Value Add makes the NBA about 57 percent of the time, while a senior (yellow line) with the same 6.50 Value Add would have only about an 18 percent chance of making the NBA.



Saturday, September 30, 2017

Baseball Breakdown of win margins and sweeps

In 2,427 Major League Baseball games in 2016, the home team won by 17 runs once, and the road team won by 19 runs once. In between, here are the margins. A team has the same chance of winning a game by at least five runs that they do of sweeping a 3-game schedule.

When you go through the table below and run the math on the Houston Astros recently becoming the first team since 1887 to win four straight games by at least 9 runs, you see the odds are 1 in 1.9 million. A team has only 2.68% chance of winning by at least 9 runs in any given game, so the chance of doing it four times in a row is calculated by 0.0268 x 0.0268 x 0.0268 x 0.0268 which equals on in 1.9 million.

For the Cleveland Indians historic 22-game winning streak, you simply multiply the 50-50 chance of winning a given game 22 times in a row for 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5, which equals 1 in 4.2 million.

One suggestion for anyone who plays video games or old board games like Statis-Pro Baseball, Accurate Baseball Made Simple or APBA, is to give the winning team credit for a three-game sweep whenever they win by at least five runs but give them a 2-1 record anytime they win by four runs or less.

Because it is hard to play enough games for accurate records, this gives a greater chance of better teams having more reflective records over time. Here are the margins for all games, with the negative indicating the home team one and the positive number indicating the home team won.


Road team marginOccurances% of timerunning %
-1710%0%
-1610%0%
-1420%0%
-1340%0%
-1270%1%
-11151%1%
-10191%2%
-9171%3%
-8372%4%
-7592%7%
-6733%10%
-51054%14.0%
-41356%20%
-31817%27%
-22219%36%
-141017%53%
127611%64%
22249%74%
31838%81%
41416%87.0%
5974%91.0%
6623%94%
7623%96%
8311%97%
9281%99%
10161%99%
1190%100%
1370%100%
1410%100%
1510%100%
1610%100%
1910%100%
Total Games =2427

Thanks to MLB Sweeps for compiling the series sweep records in three game series, something I have wanted for decades. As you can see, while the chance of either a Sweep or a win in a single game by at least five runs is 14% in both cases, the home team has a better shot at a sweep than a 5-run win (17% to 14%), but that is balanced by the road team having a better chance at a 5-run win than a sweep (13% to 11%).


2016 counts of games and seriesOccurancesPercentage
Total 3-game Series552
Home Team Sweeps9517%
Neither team swept39572%
Road Team Sweeps6211%

As a result, the following is the suggestion for playing out a short season by counting each game as three games on the record:

Proposed process for building records (every game counts as a 3-game series until playoffs)
1. If either team wins by at least 5 runs, they are credited with 3 wins to none
2. If the game is decided by within 4 runs (or extra innings) then winning team gets 2 wins and losing team 1 win
3. Home team with a lead can finish their final at bat (bottom of 9th or extra inning) to try to get to 5-run margin
4. Teams can use best relievers to try to preserve or get to 5-run game

This process lowers the chance of bad teams getting lucky because "luck" typically results from bad teams barely beating good teams in some games while being blown out more often.
Going into a game each team has a little better than 13% chance of winning by at least 5 runs.

Going into a 3-game series, each team has a little better than 13% chance of sweeping all 3 games.

Sunday, September 24, 2017

Value Add - Links to all 32 conference preseason rankings

As millions of college students settle on campus, they join alums in watching fellow students compete from the football stadiums to cross country courses such as those my twin Division 1 athletes run. Now www.valueaddbasketball.com rates more than 3,500 basketball players who can start practice in 12 days at Midnight Madness. Pick your conference from the 32 links below for a quick rundown of the top basketball players and teams with a comparison on how each football team ranks.

  1. ACC: Duke Joins Louisville as National Contender with Bagley Signing
  2. American Athletic: Ex-Football Big East Schools Add Basketball-only Wichita State
  3. American East: Albany Chasing Vermont Again
  4. Atlantic 10: St. Bonaventure Duo Could Challenge Dayton, Rhode Island and VCU
  5. Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast Shoots for More Upsets If they can Hold Off Lipscomb
  6. Big 12: TCU's Bursts into Football Title Hunt, Then Could Challenge in Toughest Hoops Conference
  7. Big East - St. John's Most Likely to Replace MU to Give Big East 7 Bids Again, Unless MU Defense Improves
  8. Big Sky: Top 100 Player Hall Leads Balanced Hoops Season after E. Washington Football Dominates
  9. Big South: Asheville's Top 100 Duo One of Best, But Liberty a Balanced Threat
  10. Big Ten: Purdue and Michigan State Ready to Seek Hoops Title After Other Big Ten Teams Shoot for Football Title
  11. Big West Teams All Get to Visit Hawaii While Settling Balanced Hoops Season
  12. Colonial Athletic Association: After JMU Football, Charleston and Elon Should Battle for March Madness Bid
  13. Conference USA: UAB Returns to Football Field While Future NBA Star Leads Middle Tennessee
  14. Horizon League: Hayes Leads 4 Oakland Stars to Potential Title
  15. Ivy League: Princeton Builds on 23-7 Season to try to hold off Harvard and Yale for Title
  16. MAAC: Iona Once Again Team to Beat with Edogi Transferring to Join McGill
  17. Mid-American: Western Michigan Battles for Top Football and Basketball Teams and Top Hoops Player
  18. Mid-Eastern Athletic's Morgan State Favorite to Dethrone NC Central Behind POY Kendley
  19. Missouri Valley Teams Battle for Title with Wichita State's Departure, Valpo's Arrival
  20. Mountain West: UNLV Edges Nevada in Tough Hoops Conference, While San Diego State Football Power
  21. Northeast: 5-foot-5 Star Shoots for Player of Year, Repeat Title for Mt. St. Mary's
  22. Ohio Valley:Jacksonville St. Football Dominance Builds on Hoops Upset of Belmont
  23. Pac-12: USC Hoops Could Surpass Arizona Hoops and Even USC Football
  24. Patriot - Bucknell Dominance of Patriot League Hoops Should Follow Army-Navy Classic
  25. SEC: Auburn, Florida, Texas A&M and Mizzou Join Kentucky As 'Basketball' Schools This Year
  26. Southern - Darryl Strawberry's Son Gives Mercer All-Southern Conference Duo, After Football Team Almost Shocks Auburn
  27. Southland - Jalan West Given 7th Year for Quest for All-American Status and 1st Southland Title Over Stephen F. Austin
  28. Summit League: Analytics See Denver Hoops Challenge to Dakota Schools That Dominate Football
  29. Sun Belt: Lafayette or Georgia Southern Could Deny Troy and Arlington Repeat Hoops Titles
  30. SWAC: Jerry Rice and Grambling NFL Greats Yield to March Madness Hopes
  31. WAC - 33 Years After Football National Title, WAC Hosts 1st For-Profit Basketball School
  32. West Coast: After Football BYU Will Challenge Basketball-only St. Mary's & Gonzaga

Corrections are welcome. Simply email pudnerjohn@takeback.org or call or text 404.606.3163. You are welcome to use links or site top players on any list as “Value Add All-Conference Players.” The first five players on each list are 1st team All-Conference players, the sixth through 10th are 2nd team, and the 11th through 15th are third team based on the actual additional points they add to their team. In most cases, this ranking is similar to what sports writers or sports information directors would perceive, but players can come off the bench with incredibly efficient three-point shooting or dominance around the basket that makes them more valuable than starters who are not as efficient. You can always run your own search of projections for current players or ratings for all players since the 2001-02 season by going to www.valueaddbasketball.com.

ACC: Duke Joins Louisville as National Contender with Bagley Signing

Marvin Bagley's late signing makes Duke a national contender with five of the top 60 players in the country, and gives the ACC three of the top 10 players. Bagley may be the best NBA player in this draft, but he ranks behind projected 1st team All-Americans in Notre Dame's Bonzie Colson (projected national Player of the Year) and Ben Lammers, who reportedly chose Georgia Tech after seeing the engineering department's 3D printer.

Value Add projects the first 14 players listed below as Top 100 players, with Deng Adel of Louisville ranked 106th of 4,000.

Here is where Value Add ranks each Atlantic Coast Conference team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams against all other schools.  And yes, Clemson's football team will try to give the ACC another football-basketball double championship.

Updates will be provided here.

ACC / 2017 SeedHoops 2017-18Football
Louisville 2115
Duke 2431
Miami FL 82412
North Carolina 13237
Virginia Tech 93313
Virginia 53776
Notre Dame 54120
Wake Forest 116236
Clemson632
Georgia Tech6728
Syracuse12479
Boston College13167
Florida St. 314711
North Carolina St.16247
Pittsburgh25042

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.

Top 15 ACC PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Bonzie Colson 3511.33Notre Dame`6-05
Ben Lammers 4410.30Georgia Tech`6-10
Marvin Bagley9.65Duke`6-11
Grayson Allen 38.50Duke`6-05
Bruce Brown 118.28Miami FL`6-05
Joel Berry 28.00North Carolina`6-00
Wendell Carter7.85Duke`6-10
Bryant Crawford 137.77Wake Forest`6-03
Josh Okogie 57.65Georgia Tech`6-04
Gary Trent Jr7.61Duke`6-06
Trevon Duval7.60Duke`6-02
Isaiah Wilkins 217.30Virginia`6-07
Deontae Hawkins 237.16Boston College`6-08
Lonnie Walker6.99Miami FL`6-04
Deng Adel6.74Louisville`6-07

Ken Pomeroy ranked the ACC as second to only the Big 12 of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

American East: Albany Chasing Vermont Again

Four American East schools have strong FCS football teams as well, but when it comes to basketball it should once again be Vermont making a run to pose a threat in the NCAA, with Albany in the best case to upset them.

Value Add projects the top seven players below are all in the top 10% of all players in the country.

Here is where Value Add ranks each American East team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams against all other schools (including behind the 129 FBS schools. Updates will be provided here.

American East / 2017 SeedHoops 2017-18Football
Vermont 1397
Albany125130
UMBC155
New Hampshire233131
Binghamton235
UMass Lowell246
Maine257148
Stony Brook261126
Hartford298

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.

Top 15 AE PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Tanner Leissner 216.48New Hampshire`6-06
Joe Cremo 35.84Albany`6-04
Anthony Lamb 35.60Vermont`6-06
Jahad Thomas 105.30UMass Lowell`6-02
Trae Bell-Haynes 25.30Vermont`6-02
Payton Henson 354.77Vermont`6-08
David Nichols 134.70Albany`6-00
Ernie Duncan 204.28Vermont`6-03
Greig Stire 433.76Albany`6-07
Joe Sherburne 133.62Maryland Baltimore Co`6-06
Jairus Lyles 103.50Maryland Baltimore Co`6-02
KJ Maura 113.40Maryland Baltimore Co`5-08
Devonte Campbell 123.26Albany`6-06
Tyrell Sturdivant 123.20Stony Brook`6-07
Travis Charles 303.08Albany`6-06

Ken Pomeroy ranked the American East 24th best of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

American Athletic: Ex-Football Big East Schools Add Basketball-only Wichita State

The American Athletic Conference was formed by schools kicked out of the Big East by basketball schools after years of fighting, but this season the conference added back one basketball-only school - potential national contender Wichita State. Football is competitive throughout, but took a blow when Houston lost their head football coach.

The addition of Wichita State's Landry Shamet gives the conference six of the top 34 players in the country, according to Value Add, which projects Wichita State could battle Cincinnati for the title. Central Florida seems the most likely to make the tournament, which last year included on Cincinnati and SMU from the conference.

Here is where Value Add ranks each American Athletic Conference team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams. Updates will be provided here.

American Athletic / 2017 SeedHoops 2017-18Football
Wichita St. 106
Cincinnati 61297
UCF3881
Memphis7365
Tulsa7466
SMU 68183
Houston8449
Temple8663
Connecticut99143
Tulane18798
South Florida22941
East Carolina272122

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.

Top 15 American Athletic PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Dedric Lawson 19.12Memphis`6-09
Landry Shamet 118.80Wichita St.`6-04
Jacob Evans 18.72Cincinnati`6-06
Gary Clark 118.68Cincinnati`6-08
Rob Gray 328.54Houston`6-02
Shake Milton 18.38Southern Methodist`6-06
Tacko Fall 247.12Central Florida`7-06
Markis McDuffie 327.07Wichita St.`6-08
Kyle Washington 246.70Cincinnati`6-09
Shizz Alston 36.70Temple`6-04
Jarrey Foster 106.54Southern Methodist`6-06
Jalen Adams 26.20Connecticut`6-03
BJ Taylor 16.00Central Florida`6-02
Cameron Reynolds 55.82Tulane`6-07
Junior Etou 05.78Tulsa`6-08

Ken Pomeroy ranked the American Athletic 7th best of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.