Tuesday, May 1, 2018

3 New Yankees Sluggers Give Edge Over Astros; Red Sox and Indians Round Out For AL Contenders based on Statis-Pro

Unlike other tabletop baseball games, Statis-Pro player cards enable fans to quickly grasp the value of a player. An average pitcher had a PB of 2-6, meaning he controlled the game on the card equivalent of a dice roll of 2-6, but a pitcher card with a 2-9 indicated he only risks hitting the batter's card on the equivalent of a 10, 11 or 12 roll to rate as one of the top 5% of all pitchers.

When a pitcher allows the batters' card to come into play yields an average home run range is 27-32 - actually four home runs out of 64 possible results on the base-8 system (there is no 29 or 30 combo). If you take 30 seconds to type in 9 MLB projected stats to let the google sheet calculate crude cards for Yankee rookies Miguel Andujar and Tyler Austin you see they have fantastic home run ranges of 32-36 and 24-32 respectively. Add the massive Home Run range of 22-34 Giancarlo Stanton who came to the Yankees from Miami after leading baseball in home runs and you realize the new Yankees lineup looks more like the 1927 Yankees than the team that just missed the World Series last year with Aaron Judge and company.

Looking through the cards of the strong players (2-8 or 2-9 pitchers or strong home run/hit range) gained or lost to adjust for how much a team's cards look better or worse than last year, the Statis-Pro rosters rank the Cleveland Indians as tops due to incredible pitching from starters to relievers, and the Yankees seem to be second best behind that line-up with the Astros and Red Sox right behind them and the Angels improved enough to perhaps sneak in as the final wild-card team.

In real life after one month, the first four playoff teams match-up but the Seattle Mariners are ahead of the Angels for the final spot. However, the Indians would only make the playoffs due to the AL Central being very weak, and the Astros starting rotation that looks just above average is actually lights out (top trio is 10-1 with a 1.50 ERA vs. going 55-49 with a 3.88 ERA in their combined two seasons before joining the Astros.

At the end of the season, we will see if the final standings are closer to what they are now or to how good the cards look from last year moved to their current rosters as reflected below. You can play Statis-Pro here or by finding an old game on-line, and you can order cards or make your own using this google sheet. (Notes on my Statis-Pro season are kept here)

TeamRating2017 WLBig additions (or full seasons)Losses
Cleveland Indians10.010260Chisenhall 28-35 PT, Alonso 24-32Robertson R 2-8 FA
New York Yankees9.09171New Stanton (Mia) 22-34 fr Mia, Andujar 31-35, 27-37Castro 36-41 to Mia
Houston Astros8.610161Stassi 26-33None
Boston Red Sox8.69369Martinez 25-38 Com, Velazquez 2-8R PT,None
Los Angeles Angels8.08082Cozart (Cin) 31-36, Upton 26-34 Det, Ohtani 34-38 & 2-8S Japan, Richards 2-8 S PTPetit 2-8 Rel to Oak
Minnesota Twins6.28577Reed 2-8 Mets, Morrison 21-28W TBNone
Seattle Mariners5.27884Nicasio 2-8R Com, Leake 2-8 S PT, Healy 32-36 Oak, Gordon 42 a/a fr MiaZych 2-8 R FA
Toronto Blue Jays4.87686Hernandez 22-34 PT, Grichuk 24-31 StLRasmus 27-37 PT to Bal, Leone 2-8R to St Louis
Texas Rangers4.47884Minor 2-8R KCNone
Baltimore Orioles4.27587Rasmus 27-37 TB/PT, Beckman 35-42 PTCastillo 31-37 CWS
Chicago White Sox3.86795Delmonico 24-32 PT, Castillo 31-37 Balt, Gioliti 2-8 StPT, Avila 2-8 RelLAD,Cabrera 35-38 Free agent
Oakland Athletics3.47587Olson 15-32 PT, Petit 2-8 Rel LAAAlonso 24-33 to Cle , Madson 2-9 to Wash, Healy 32-36 Oak to Sea
Kansas City Royals2.88082Hosmer 36-42 to SD, Alexander 2-8 Rel LAD, Minor 2-8R Tex
Tampa Bay Rays2.48082Wendell 42-43Morrison 21-28W to Minn, Dickerson 33-37 to Pitt, Hunter to Phillies 2-8R, Cishek 2-9R PT,
Detroit Tigers0.06498CAldelario 41-42 PT,JD Martinez 27-37 PT, Upton 27-35W
AL Average5.481.780.3Ave. AL Batting Card 27-32 HR, Pitcher 2-6

Sunday, April 22, 2018

NFL Draft Takes Most Early Talent From; 1) LSU, 2) Bama, 3) Texas, 4) Stanford, 5) Ohio State

While college seniors prepare for graduation in the coming weeks, the following student-athletes chose to instead enter this week's NFL draft before their senior year of college football. We took a look at the teams hurt the most by talented players leaving early.

We calculated 25 points for losing a player who would be one of the first few picks, all the way down to 2 points for a player who left early but might not even be drafted. Admittedly I go into more detail on the student-athletes leaving early for the NBA draft and the projections for all remaining players and their teams (click here), but the NHL, baseball and NBA drafts are not until June so here is the focus on this week's NFL draft.

The hardest hit team was LSU, which loses running back Derrius Guice (23 of 25 possible points), defensive backs Donte Jackson and Kevin Toliver (20 and 19), linebacker Arden Key (18), center Will Clapp (C) and then some minor players in Toby Weathersby and Travonte Valentine (tackle and nose tackle both worth two points). All together, that tallies 100 points even.

We list LSU's players first on the table below, and then we list the rest of the teams who lost someone early to the draft in alphabetical order. This worked out nicely because Alabama appears first alphabetically and happens to also be the second hardest hit with 87 points lost between five players. However, you will have to scroll down alphabetically to see the next three hardest hit in Texas, Stanford and Ohio State. I will actually be on Ohio State's campus for graduation weekend due to working on a redistricting ballot measure in the state for www.takeback.org - which has more student signups there than on any other campus. We will keep updates coming at www.pudnersports.com.

TeamPlayers lost to draft before senior yearValuePos
LSU1 rank, LSU lost 7 early entrees100Team 1
LSUDerrius Guice23RB
LSUDonte Jackson20DB
LSUKevin Toliver19DB
LSUArden Key18LB
LSUWill Clapp17C
LSUToby Weathersby2T
LSUTravonte Valentine2NT
Alabama2 rank, Alabama lost 5 early entrees87Team 2
AlabamaMinkah Fitzpatrick24DB
AlabamaCalvin Ridley24WR
AlabamaRonnie Harrison21DB
AlabamaBo Scarbrough16RB
AlabamaDa'Ron Payne2NT
Arizona St.36 rank, Arizona State lost 3 early entrees18Team 36
Arizona St.Christian Sam15LB
Arizona St.JoJo Wicker2DT
Arizona St.Sam Jones2G
Auburn8 rank, Auburn lost 4 early entrees58Team 8
AuburnCarlton Davis22DB
AuburnKerryon Johnson21RB
AuburnJeff Holland12LB
AuburnKamryn Pettway2RB
Benedictine47 rank, Benedictine lost 1 early entrees2Team 47
BenedictineMatt Fleming2WR
Boise St.27 rank, Boise State lost 1 early entrees23Team 27
Boise St.Leighton Vander Esch23LB
Clemson29 rank, Clemson lost 4 early entrees22Team 29
ClemsonDeon Cain10WR
ClemsonTaylor Hearn8G
ClemsonRay-Ray McCloud2WR
ClemsonVan Smith2DB
Colorado28 rank, Colorado lost 1 early entrees23Team 28
ColoradoIsaiah Oliver23DB
Florida14 rank, Florida lost 3 early entrees43Team 14
FloridaTaven Bryan22DT
FloridaAntonio Callaway19WR
FloridaEddy Pineiro2K
Florida St.18 rank, Florida State lost 4 early entrees32Team 18
Florida St.Tarvarus McFadden14DB
Florida St.Josh Sweat14DE
Florida St.Auden Tate2WR
Florida St.Jalen Wilkerson2DE
FSU21 rank, FSU lost 2 early entrees27Team 21
FSUDerwin James25DB
FSURyan Izzo2TE
Georgia15 rank, Georgia lost 2 early entrees42Team 15
GeorgiaRoquan Smith25LB
GeorgiaTrenton Thompson17DT
Houston41 rank, Houston lost 1 early entrees13Team 41
HoustonKyle Allen13QB
Indiana42 rank, Indiana lost 1 early entrees13Team 42
IndianaSimmie Cobbs13WR
Iowa12 rank, Iowa lost 2 early entrees48Team 12
IowaJames Daniels24C
IowaJosh Jackson24DB
Kansas35 rank, Kansas lost 1 early entrees18Team 35
KansasDorance Armstrong18DE
Kansas St.43 rank, Kansas State lost 2 early entrees11Team 43
Kansas St.Byron Pringle10WR
Kansas St.DJ Reed2DB
Louisiana-Monroe48 rank, Louisiana-Monroe lost 1 early entrees2Team 48
Louisiana-MonroeJJ Dallas2DB
Louisville6 rank, Louisville lost 3 early entrees65Team 6
LouisvilleLamar Jackson25QB
LouisvilleJaire Alexander24DB
LouisvilleGeron Christian16T
Marshall39 rank, Marshall lost 1 early entrees15Team 39
MarshallChase Litton15QB
Maryland17 rank, Maryland lost 2 early entrees35Team 17
MarylandDJ Moore23WR
MarylandJC Jackson12DB
Miami16 rank, Miami lost 4 early entrees38Team 16
MiamiRJ McIntosh18DT
MiamiKendrick Norton10DT
MiamiMark Walton9RB
MiamiCourtel Jenkins2DT
Middle Tennessee46 rank, Middle Tennessee lost 1 early entrees5Team 46
Middle TennesseeRichie James5WR
NC St.19 rank, NC State lost 2 early entrees32Team 19
NC St.Will Richardson16T
NC St.Nyheim Hines16RB
Nebraska40 rank, Nebraska lost 2 early entrees14Team 40
NebraskaTanner Lee9QB
NebraskaNick Gates6T
Nevada49 rank, Nevada lost 1 early entrees2Team 49
NevadaVosean Crumbie2DB
Notre Dame10 rank, Notre Dame lost 3 early entrees56Team 10
Notre DameQuenton Nelson25G
Notre DameJosh Adams16RB
Notre DameEquanimeous St Brown15WR
Ohio St.5 rank, Ohio State lost 3 early entrees65Team 5
Ohio St.Denzel Ward25DB
Ohio St.Sam Hubbard21DE
Ohio St.Jerome Baker19LB
Oklahoma13 rank, Oklahoma lost 4 early entrees47Team 13
OklahomaMark Andrews22TE
OklahomaOrlando Brown21T
OklahomaDu'Vonta Lampkin2DT
OklahomaDwayne Orso-Bacchus2T
Ole Miss38 rank, Ole Miss lost 1 early entrees16Team 38
Ole MissBreeland Speaks16DE
Oregon St.45 rank, Oregon State lost 1 early entrees10Team 45
Oregon St.Ryan Nall10RB
Penn St.22 rank, Penn State lost 1 early entrees25Team 22
Penn St.Saquon Barkley25RB
Pittsburg St.50 rank, Pittsburg State lost 1 early entrees2Team 50
Pittsburg St.Juante Baldwin2DB
Pittsburgh24 rank, Pittsburgh lost 3 early entrees25Team 24
PittsburghBrian O'Neill22T
PittsburghJordan Whitehead2DB
PittsburghQuadree Henderson2WR
Purdue51 rank, Purdue lost 1 early entrees2Team 51
PurdueEddy Wilson2DT
San Jose St.52 rank, San Jose State lost 1 early entrees2Team 52
San Jose St.Frank Ginda2LB
SMU20 rank, SMU lost 2 early entrees31Team 20
SMUCourtland Sutton24WR
SMUTrey Quinn7WR
South Carolina26 rank, South Carolina lost 1 early entrees23Team 26
South CarolinaHayden Hurst23TE
Southeastern Louisiana53 rank, Southeastern Louisiana lost 1 early entrees2Team 53
Southeastern LouisianaMaea Teuhema2T
Southern Miss54 rank, Southern Miss lost 1 early entrees2Team 54
Southern MissKorey Robertson2WR
Stanford4 rank, Stanford lost 4 early entrees70Team 4
StanfordHarrison Phillips21DT
StanfordJustin Reid18DB
StanfordDalton Schultz17TE
StanfordQuenton Meeks15DB
Tennessee32 rank, Tennessee lost 3 early entrees19Team 32
TennesseeRashaan Gaulden10DB
TennesseeJohn Kelly7RB
TennesseeReginald McKenzie2DT
Texas3 rank, Texas lost 6 early entrees82Team 3
TexasConnor Williams23T
TexasMalik Jefferson22LB
TexasDeShon Elliott14DB
TexasHolton Hill12DB
TexasMichael Dickson7P
TexasChris Warren4RB
Texas A&M30 rank, Texas A&M lost 1 early entrees21Team 30
Texas A&MChristian Kirk21WR
Texas Tech44 rank, Texas Tech lost 1 early entrees11Team 44
Texas TechKeke Coutee11WR
Toledo55 rank, Toledo lost 1 early entrees2Team 55
ToledoOlasunkanmi Adeniyi2DE
UCF31 rank, UCF lost 2 early entrees19Team 31
UCFJordan Akins18TE
UCFTre'Quan Smith2WR
UCLA9 rank, UCLA lost 4 early entrees57Team 9
UCLAJosh Rosen25QB
UCLAKolton Miller24T
UCLAJordan Lasley6WR
UCLAAustin Roberts2TE
UNC56 rank, UNC lost 1 early entrees2Team 56
UNCAndre Smith2LB
USC11 rank, USC lost 4 early entrees55Team 11
USCSam Darnold25QB
USCRonald Jones22RB
USCDeontay Burnett6WR
USCRasheem Green2DT
Virginia Tech7 rank, Virginia Tech lost 3 early entrees59Team 7
Virginia TechTremaine Edmunds25LB
Virginia TechTim Settle20DT
Virginia TechTerrell Edmunds14DB
Wake Forest37 rank, Wake Forest lost 1 early entrees17Team 37
Wake ForestJessie Bates17DB
Washington25 rank, Washington lost 1 early entrees24Team 25
WashingtonVita Vea24NT
Washington St.34 rank, Washington State lost 2 early entrees18Team 34
Washington St.Hercules Mata'afa17DE
Washington St.Tavares Martin2WR
Western Kentucky57 rank, Western Kentucky lost 1 early entrees2Team 57
Western KentuckyJoel Iyiegbuniwe2LB
Wisconsin33 rank, Wisconsin lost 1 early entrees19Team 33
WisconsinNick Nelson19DB
Wyoming23 rank, Wyoming lost 1 early entrees25Team 23
WyomingJosh Allen25QB

Projected 1st Round March Madness Match-ups; Recent Transfer Winners and Losers

After another 100+ updates this weekend on transfers, signings, NBA departures and other college basketball moves, here are the projected 1st round March Madness games based on player projections at www.valueaddbasketball.com (allow edits at https://tinyurl.com/y9mr9uu4). After the list, we lay out recent moves and which colleges were the biggest winners and losers.

RnkTeamValue ProjectionConfSeed1st Round NCAA Match-ups
1Kentucky67.07SEC1Lehigh/Texas Southern Winner
2Villanova57.26BE1Stephen F. Austin/Howard winner
4Nevada56.55MWC1New Mexico St.
5Oregon55.99P122St. Francis PA
6Auburn55.56SEC2Northern Kentucky
7Duke54.37ACC2UC Davis
8Mississippi St.49.22SEC2Rider
9North Carolina48.92ACC3Liberty
11Gonzaga45.87WCC3Georgia St.
14Maryland44.78B104UNC Greensboro
17Virginia Tech41.66ACC5Loyola Chicago
18Ohio St.41.55B105Houston
19North Carolina St.41.5ACC5Davidson
20Marquette41.45BE5BYU/Michigan winner
21Michigan St.41.44B106Washington/San Diego St. winner
22South Dakota St.40.36Sum6Indiana
24Florida39.7SEC6Notre Dame
25Texas39.33B127Boston College
26Montana39.18BSky7Iowa St.
27Miami FL38.22ACC7Creighton
28Arizona St.38.02P127Wisconsin
30Florida St.37.62ACC8TCU
31Kansas St.37.5B128Providence
32Iowa36.88B108Texas Tech

And here are teh biggest winners and losers in recent updates at https://tinyurl.com/y9mr9uu4.

RnkRecent ChangeBiggest Recent WinnersLoserValue
75Omer YurtsevenGeorgetown in 2020NC State7.04
78Ashton HagansKentuckyhis highschool7.00
174Blake FrancisRichmond in 2020Wagner5.88
212DeSean MurrayNot yet knownAuburn5.45
297MaCio TeagueAvailable in 2020UNC Asheville4.89
326Ryan WelageXavier in 2020San Jose State4.66
328Brandon WilliamsOregon/Crystal BallNone4.65
382Austin ReavesNot yet knownWichita St.4.32
442Zach JohnsonMiami FLFlorida Gulf Coast4.10
440Ronnie HarrellDenverCreighton4.10
444Courtney RameyLouisville/Crystal BallNone4.09
469Carlton Bragg 15New Mexico in 2020Arizona State3.98
502Kassoum YakweConnecticutSt. John's3.85
505Marcus BurkAvailable in 2020Campbell3.84
598Justin GorhamAvailable in 2020Towson3.57
656Juwan GrayAvailable in 2020San Diego3.35
669David CaraherSt. John's in 2020Houston Baptist3.32
783Nick NortonDrakeUAB2.97
830Austin NehlsBall St.Central Connecticut State2.78
846Joseph ChartounyMarquetteFordham2.75
880Eric LockettNot yet knownFlorida International2.66
897Jacob YoungRutgersTexas2.63
908Antwann JonesMemphis/Crystal BallNone2.60
930James AkinjoGeorgetown/Crystal BallNone2.56
957Matthew MoyerVanderbilt in 2020Syracuse2.50
974Jordan JonesAvailable in 2020Charleston Southern2.46
1060Jordan NoblesOaklandEastern Michigan2.23
1090Izaiah BrockingtonUnknownSt. Bonaventure2.20
1114CJ JonesNot yet knownArkansas2.19
1134Mason FaulknerAvailable in 2020Northern Kentucky2.14
1149Josh McFolleyAvailable in 2020Detroit2.11
1162Bobby PlanutisNot yet knownMount St. Mary's2.07
1172Tyler HarrisMemphis/Crystal BallNone2.06
1242Jy'lan WashingtonTennessee StateLouisiana Tech1.90
1260Justin ThomasAvailable in 2020Northern Illinois1.88
1290Nedeljko PrijovicMaine in 2020Texas State1.82
1301Tarin SmithConnecticutDuquesne1.81
1310Aaron CalixteOklahomaMaine1.78
1343Blake HinsonMississippi/Crystal BallNone1.70
1382Andy Van VlietWilliam & Mary in 2020Wisconsin1.63
1432Caleb McConnellRutgers/Crystal BallNone1.50
1519Lukas KisunasArizona/Crystal BallNone1.35
1800Payton WillisMinnesotaVanderbilt1.06


Sunday, April 15, 2018

15 players being dropped from Value Add Projections - Headed for NBA

As a follow-up to other articles, here are all the players being dropped from the Value Add Basketball database of 2019 projections, still leaving more than 5,400 players or open roster spots. Khyri Thomas has actually been added back into the database because he did not sign an agent.

Player out of ProjectionsHeightTeam losing playerValue
Mikal Bridges #256-foot-7Villanova11.06
Jalen Brunson #16-foot-2Villanova10.44
Moe Wagner #136-foot-11Michigan8.58
Landry Shamet #116-foot-4Wichita State8.17
Khyri Thomas #26-foot-3Creighton/could go NBA   8.03
Anfernee Simons6-foot-4High School7.80
Malik Newman #146-foot-3Kansas7.42
Marcus Derrickson #246-foot-7Georgetown6.86
Hamidou Diallo #36-foot-5Kentucky5.64
Mustapha Heron #56-foot-5Auburn5.38
Lonnie Walker #46-foot-5Miami FL5.09
Trevon Duval #16-foot-3Duke4.38
Justin Jackson #216-foot-7Maryland1.18
Drew Edwards #256-foot-4Providence0.77
Dikembe Dixson #106-foot-7Chicago State0.40
Fred Sims #146-foot-4Chicago State0.30

Saturday, April 7, 2018

Statis-Pro Standings, Pre-season ranking based on cards and Results (2018 Rosters, 2017 Player Cards)

Standings, Strength of Schedule, schedule for 1st 5 series to balance all teams SOS

Update: We are adding rookie cards on a spreadsheet that lets you add any player you want in this google sheet. I based new cards on the MLB projected stats for the whole year, and going through rookie pitchers with more than 14 innings pitched Shane Carle of the Atlanta Braves is the only PB2-8 pitcher so far. I started the rookie batters just with their actual stats to get something on the page, and Houston has a Home Run 26-33, while the Yankees have 31-35 and 27-37 and Tampa Bay has a 42-43, but because the sample is small I will look at batters projections before actually playing with new rookies. This definitely makes the Yankees much stronger and the Astros and Rays a bit stronger than the rankings I have further down in this blog.

Playoffs right now would be Minn at Yankees and Oak-Seattle winner at Houston

  • New York 9-3, SOS 5.4 (3-1 and 8-5 over Angels, Stanton added to line-up which produced 5 HRs in 1st two games and incredible pen THEN 7 of 9 Yankees hit homers in 2 games over KC 6-3, 8-3). Next up Bost, Det for SOS 4.9 through 24 games and get 2nd toughest NL team next.
  • Boston 7-5, SOS 4.7 (Sale 16 strikeout, 0 walks, 2 hit 3-0 shutout against scary Orioles line-up that will win a ton, then 8-3 SWEEP with Kimbrel saving as best closer. Despite Kimbro setting down all 10 and 9 by strikeouts in 2 games, swept by Seattle 4-1 and 1-0). Next up NY, TB for SOS 4.9 through 24 games & get 3rd best NL team for next.
  • Tampa 7-5, SOS 4.3 (Kiermaier 2nd homer of game broke tie in 10th for 3-2 win, then he hit a 3rd in a wild 12-11 11th inning win against Texas). In a throwback to earlier era - Rays overcame Orioles superior power and three great relief pitchers with speed - going 10 or 10 stealing bases in two games to get a 3-5, 6-2 split. Faria and Colome combined for the win and save in the win. Next up alt, KC, Boston for 5.0 SOS through 24 games and get 5th toughest NL next.
  • Toronto 3-9, SOS 4.3 (10th inning 4-5 loss, then 5-6  to Seattle with only one homer. Stuggles continued vs. Oak as Estrada and Stroman gave up 12 run in 9.2 IP in the two starts for 3-7 and 0-7 losses as they powerful lineup held in check). Next up Min, Hou for 5.9 SOS through 24 games and get 13th toughest NL next..
  • Baltimore 4-8, SOS 5.5 (loaded with power, scary lineup despite 0-3 loss to Sale). Power showed up wtih 2 homers and 3 doubles and all three 2-8/2-9 relievers getting an inning each for 5-3 win over Tampa but fell short 2-6 in second game as last 12 players failed to reach inlcuding 9 striking out. Next up Oak, Cl for 6.1 SOS through 24 games and get 14th toughest NL next.

Tigers look very bad but the Indians look the best of three very balanced teams bunched by two games.
  • Minnesota 7-5, SOS 6.7 (12th inning 5-4 over Oakland but not a lot of power), and used 5 pitchers in 4-6 loss in finale; Mauer's HR, double and single led 13-hits attack for 7-1 sweep over Indians to put in 1st place, but lost second game 2-1 despite complete game 1-hitter by Odorizzi). Tor, Oak next for 5.4 SOS through 24 games and get 9th best NL next.
  • White Sox 7-5, SOS 5.0 (1-2 loss to Kluber and incredible Indians pen, but huge bat from Orioles' Castillo gives great clean-up hitter for much-improved line-up, and have Pb 2-8 going in second game. ChiSox powerful line-up can win if they get to closer Avilon who had 2 perfect innings in 2 games vs. Det, and 3-run homers by Anderson in both games along with three other players homering gave them 8-3 sweep in first game before 2-error inning blew second game). Sea and Tex next then get 4th best NL team next.
  • Royals 6-6, SOS 4.5 (6-1 over Tigers only sweep so far - not a great line-up but Merrifield and Moustakas both 2-run homers BUT then blitzed by Yankees for 7 HRs). Next up TB, LA for 5.1 SOS through 24 games and get 7th best NL next.
  • Indians 5-7, SOS 5.0 (best pitching ever including Kluber for 1st start, then lost to 2-8 pitcher for  White Sox. Indians 1-7 loss to Twins and then were 1-hit, but the hit was a 2-run homer by Encarnacio which made a winner of the best reliever in the game Miller who retired 9 straight before giving up a double and needing Allen to get the final out for a save). Hou and Balt next for 5.7 SOS through 24 games and get NLs 12th best team next.
  • Tigers 3-9, SOS 3.3 (first team swept with 1-6 loss to Royals, but both line-ups pretty weak, then lost again. Swept again by ChiSox 8-3 with former Fiers giving up 8 runs in 3.1 innings, but 3-run homer by Mantook and 2 unearned runs in 6th inning due to 1st 2 error inning in Statis-Pro season gave them 6-4 win). LA, NY next for 5.6 SOS then get 11th best NL next.
  • Houston 5-1, SOS 8.0 (Verlander led a combined shutout, and McCann finally broke the scoreless dual with a 2-run homer his 3rd time up in the 9 hole. Marisnick and Springer added 2-run homers each off the pin to give the Astros the 6-0 win and a sweep.) Tex, Tor, Cle next for 6.3 SOS through 24 games and get weakest NL team next.
  • Seattle 8-4, SOS 6.7 (10th inning 5-4 over Toronto on Cano homer, then rallied from 1-4 down for 6-5 win with deep and strong bullpen for big wins on two teams right in the middle. Cruz hit game-winning homes in back-to-back wins over BoSox and Leake went 9 inning shutout). Chi, Tex next for 5.4 SOS through 24 games and get NLs 10th best team next.
  • Oakland 8-4, SOS 5.5 (12th inning 4-5 loss to Minnesota but a TON of power and walks should improve them - Matt Olson helps win the second with the first of many homers of the greatest card since fellow A's player Mickey Klutz with a 15-32 home for 55 games. vs. Tor got complete game wins by Mengden and Triggs while 5 A's hit homers to power to 7-3 and 7-0 wins). Balt, Min next for 5.4 SOS through 24 games and get NL's 8th toughest team next.
  • Texas 2-4, SOS 2.4 (10th inning 2-3 loss to Tampa, but Choo nice addition as cleanup with both RBIs and homer on 2 of 3 game. 2nd game 9th inning grandslam by Andrus gave them 11-9 lead, but they could not hold it and lost in 11 innings 12-11. Tough losses against a team that looks lower level.) Hou, Chi, Sea next or 5.0 SOS and get NLs 6th toughest team next.
  • LA Anaheim 3-9, SOS 8.2 (three new studs in the line-up including Ohtani debut hitting but will start 3rd game, but bullpen AWFUL. Changed Trout's CD from 1 to 4, but lower Richard's PB from 2-9 to 2-8 for only 6 starts. Unfair to start them against Yankees and Astros, so they will get 2 easy teams next, but someone had to finish a 2-game series to play the odd 15th team out - Astros - and couldn't resist Ohtani vs. Verlander). Next up Det (0.0) and KC (2.8) to lower SOS down to weakest 4.8 then get toughest NL team next.
Here is how good I believe each team is on paper based on the gain or loss of big time players (or a part-time player they get full-time this year in the game) as an adjustment to last year's record. In other words, the Indians look like the best team and get a 10.0, and the Tigers look like the worst team and get a 0.0. The Red Sox and Astros seem tied for second at a 8.6, then the Angels and Yankees at 8.0 and 7.8 virtually tied for 4th best in the AL.

Baltimore Orioles4.2
Boston Red Sox8.6
Chicago White Sox3.8
Cleveland Indians10.0
Detroit Tigers0.0
Houston Astros8.6
Kansas City Royals2.8
Los Angeles Angels8.0
Minnesota Twins6.2
New York Yankees9.0
Oakland Athletics3.4
Seattle Mariners5.2
Tampa Bay Rays2.4
Texas Rangers4.4
Toronto Blue Jays4.8

For each team I put their record based on a 5-run win counting as a 3-0 sweep, and other wins as a 2-1 sweep. The Strength of Schedule (SOS) is based on how good their average opponents cards are based on last year's records adjusted for excellent players gained or lost.

Team (Wins in Q, losses at bottomBalBosChiClDetHouKCLAMinNYYOakSeaTBTexTorStatis-Pro 2018 Wins
Baltimore Oriolesx11
Boston Red Sox2x2
Chicago White Soxx11
Cleveland Indians2x2
Detroit Tigersx10
Houston Astrosx33
Kansas City Royals5x3
Los Angeles Angelsx22
Minnesota Twinsx22
New York Yankees54x4
Oakland Athletics1x1
Seattle Marinersx22
Tampa Bay Raysx22
Texas Rangers1x1
Toronto Blue Jays1x1
Statis Pro Loses212130071221122x

Minnesota 5, Oakland 4 (12 innings): After Joe Mauer's third hit of the day, Mitch Garver uses his OBR B to go first to third, and then tag up on Eddie Rosario's second sac fly of the game. HRs, Okland Davis, Minn Buxton and Morrison. W- Rogers, L Petit.

Seattle 5, Toronto 4 (10 innings)

Tampa 3, Texas 2 (10 innings)

Indians 2, White Sox 1 - White Sox lineup improved but Cleveland may have the best pitching staff in Statis Pro history, particularly when Kluber starts.

Royals 6, Tigers 1 - Counts as sweep.

League Rules
Each game counts as a 3-game series. Winning team gets a 2-1 series win unless they win by at least 5 runs without extra innings, in which case they get a 3-0 sweep. Mathematically, it is just as hard to get a 5-run win as a sweep and run differential is a truer test in the short season.

Using 2017 Statis-Pro cards but current rosters. As long as someone is on the roster they can be used in a better role (eg a player with a better card from last year can play ahead of the player actually starting this year, or relievers who have better cards can be the closer. Also, relievers can be used to protect against a sweep (closer to hold a 5-run lead or keep a 4-run deficit from becoming a 5-run deficit.

Option to Play Statis-Pro With Only This Chart, Dice and Playing Cards from eBay

I recently joined those around the country longing to go back to my old Statis-Pro baseball games. I was happy to find it was very easy to order player cards from many sources (I liked the onebig32Dave on eBay for only $10 for a pdf email to cut out yourself or a little more for really nice perforated cards).

If you want to play Statis-Pro but are missing components of the game after getting the player cards, this gives the option of; 1) picking up 5 dice to play the game off charts provided below even if all you have is player cards, or 2) find the basic charts you need below if you do have your fast action cards.

What is a bit more expensive and harder to find is the game set up and the actual fast action cards used. To give you another option, you can play the game if you simply order the player cards from big32Dave or someone else, pull up these charts, and can pick up the following five dice from a hobby store or on-line; 1) two traonlinel 6-sided dice, a 20-sided dice, and two 8-sided dice of different colors.

The two traditional dice (blue in this photo) are rolled to give the PB rating on the pitcher's card (a 2-8 roll would be on the blue die in the photo would be on Dallas Keuchel's card if he were pitching, while 9 or higher would be on Ryan Zimmerman's card if he were batting.

The 8-side dice need to be different colors because one needs to be the "10s" digit and the other the "1s" digit. In the picture, the yellow is 10s and the white is 1s, so this roll is a 45 which would be a passed ball on Keuchel's card.

The 20-sided die (red in this case) often is not needed if there are already two outs OR the bases are empty. In those cases, only a roll of 19 or 20 requires a reference to the second set of numbers on these charts, but if there are men on base with less than two outs then the red die is used in Column A or B on the charts.

The game plays quickly using this dice alternative because you can roll all five dice at once following the charts. Call 404.606.3163 or email pudnerjohn@gmail.com if you have any questions.

There are references to Z plays, and if you choose to use them, here is the chart. I only have player injuries last the rest of the game.

Friday, April 6, 2018

Baseball Breakdown of Double Play Grounders and Would-be Sac Flies Per Out

Because I wanted to revisit Statis-Pro baseball and distribute outs and errors with a 20-sided die rather than their playing cards, I broke down the 185,000 plus times a batter stepped up to the plate last year and provided the numbers under the "All PA" column below.

The error number is not a true percentage, because in fact multiple outs can be recorded on a given playmaking fielding averages appear even higher than they are per play, but let's skip that for now.

All PAOpportunityIn play outper 20-sided die1B or 2B
GB 1 out4029831818318177.4
Infield error2070207020700.5
Fly Ball out3746225632263826.1
OF or C error7507507500.2

The most important thing I needed to break out was the chance of a double play grounder and of a sacrifice fly in order to give the proper chances of each on my 20-sided die - each representing a 5% chance of something happening through a subsequent role of the die if the first one came up "20" could give a 0.25% chance on two rolls.

At first tally, there were on 3,810 double-play grounders. However, there is only a man on first and less than two outs 31% of the time so we can reverse engineer to estimate there were 12,290 balls hit like a double-play grounder - but 69% of the time they just turned into groundouts because there was no force for a double play.

There were only 1,170 sacrifice flies, but there is a man on third with less than two outs only 9 percent of the time, so likewise we can reverse engineer that an estimated 13,000 balls were hit deep enough to be sacrifice flies but 91% of the time no one was on 3rd base to run home and give credit. Most do not realize that a batter does not get a sacrifice fly credit if a runner goes from 2nd to 3rd base on his fly ball.

Once you take away all the hits, strikeouts, walks and decisions to either bunt or intentionally walk a batter, we are left with 86,309 times that a batter hit a ball that resulted in an out or someone reaching on an error. When you break that down to a 20-sided die, we find 3 of the sides should equal a double play grounder and another 3 equal a sac fly. You also have 7 other clean groundouts, 6 other clean foul balls, and then some fractions that we break down into a second roll of the die if a 20 comes up the first time.

DieOut on card (DP if force, if not runners hold and out at 1st)
2DP unless batter OBR A
3DP unless batter OBR A-B
4DP unless batter OBR A-C
5DP unless batter OBR A-D
6Ground Out Runner A Advance
7Ground Out Runner A-B Advance
8Ground Out Runner A-C Advance
9Ground Out Runner A-D Advance
10Ground Out Runner Advance
11Fly Out
12Fly Out
13Fly Out
14Fly Out, runner OBR A on 2nd or 3rd Advance
15Fly Out, runner OBR A-B on 2nd or 3rd Advance
16Fly Out, runner OBR A-C on 2nd or 3rd Advance
17Fly Out, runner OBR A-D on 2nd or 3rd Advance
18Fly Out, runner on 2nd or 3rd Advance
19-20Roll Again Below - possible defensive play
2nd roll below
2 dice new rollBased on two 6-sided dice out hit to: 2 or 3 = 1b, 4 = P, 5 = cf, 6 = 3b, 7 or 12 = SS, 8 = 2b, 9 = pulled to outfielder, 10 = C, 11 = opposite field outfielder.
1out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 1 -10
2E1-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE OBRA or B lead runner beats attempted throw, all safe - otherwise lead runner out
3out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 2-10
4E2-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE OBRA lead runner beats attempted throw - otherwise lead runner out
5out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 3-10
6E3-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE Fielder throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance
7out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 4-10
8E4-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE Fielder throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance
9out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 5-10
10E5-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE CD2-4 throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance
11out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 6-10
12E6-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE CD2-4 throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance
13out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 7-10
14E7-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE CD3-4 throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance
15out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 8-10
16E8-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE CD3-4 throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance
17out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 9-10 - OPTIONAL NEXT PLAY IS Z PLAY
18E9-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE CD4 throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance - OPTIONAL NEXT PLAY IS Z PLAY
19out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 10 - OPTIONAL NEXT PLAY IS Z PLAY
20E10 1-base error, OTHERWISE CD4 throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance - OPTIONAL NEXT PLAY IS Z PLAY

On references to OBR runners, if lead runner is too fast to get defense throws out batter.