Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Statis-Pro World Series 2019: Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros


  1. (Results for each world series game appears below starting with Game 1 at the top and the final get.at the bottom)


Here we go with another fun culmination of a Statis-Pro baseball seasons. I don't know if the Houston Astros and Washington Nationals will survive tough pitching challenges in Game 5 of their playoff series - but with that as the backdrop I started playing them against each other after they emerged from the Statis-Pro season and playoffs - which lets teams play with no injuries and with the cards of how good a player projected to be this year.

One big advantage for the Statis-Pro Nats vs. the real Nats is a great bullpen. Not only is Doolittle's card great, but because I set the rosters based on who had pitched by the end of August, they also get to use Rosenthal's great card even though he really was a disaster in only a few appearances for them this year before being cut. Nonetheless, he wrapped up a tight win for them in Game 1, before Verlander and Corbin both were - well as bad as their actual most recent appearances were in the playoffs - with both gone by the time the score was 6-5 in the 5th and the Astros eventually wrapping up the Game 2 win to even the series and head back to Houston with Alvarez back in the line-up as the DH. (we will keep adding game below as they conclude).

Game 1 and 2 Summary



Games 3 through 5 in Houston


Both teams won with the pitching edge to split games 3 and 4 and keep the series even. Game 3 - Astros 5, Nationals 0. The Astros won 5-0 behind Cole, but used their best relief card in Pressley for the save because they led only 1-0 in the top of the 8th when Soto knocked him out of the game and then pinch runner Stevenson stole second. Correa's Homer broke the tie, and then Altuve's Homer capped a 4-run rally with a 2-run Homer. GAME 4 - Nationals 8, Astros 2. Scherzer pitched out of a couple of jams to last for 6 innings with a 5-1 lead, and the Nats pounded out 11 hits for the win. The Nats disadvantage is that they needed Scherzer - the best pitching card in the game - for Game 5 of the NLCS so his only start of the Statis-pro World Series was this game 4. However, he can do long relief if needed in Game 7.

Game 5 - Strasburg vs. Miley (in Houston, DHs hit)

The Statis-Pro World Series started with the real MLB season still in the divisional round with the Nats and Astros still hoping to make the 2nd round. By the time we played game 5 below, the real Nats were up 2 games to 0 on the Cards but the Astros had been blasted 7-0 in Game 1 with the Yankees).

Strasburg took a 2-1 lead into Game 5, but Springer and Altuve hit solo homers off him to give the Astros the lead. The Nats sluggers chased Osuna in the 8th with a Rendon double and singles by Zimmerman and Adams, but Pressley (the Astros best card as a PB 2-8) came into strike out the final two to keep it 3-3. Fielding was then key. Maldanado, the better defensive catcher with a throwing arm A (TA) lined an apparent game-winning double over the first base bag only to have Adams (a clutch defense 4 who plays first to move Zimmerman to DH) made a diving catch. After Robles singled in the top of the 9th, Maldanado returned the favor by throwing him out on a play on which Robles would have stolen second if Chironos (TB) were still in the game. Springer then led off the bottom of the 9th with a solo off Doolittle to give the Astros a 4-3 win and three games to two lead with a chance to clinch in Washington. The Astros cleanup hitter Alvarez will sit with the pitchers hitting - Alvarez is DH and has the worst error rating - E10 - if he plays the outfield.



Game 6 - Corbin vs Verlander (in Washington, pitchers hit)

If you happened to watch the last 2 games of the actual MLB playoffs between the Cardinals and Braves then the end of the Statis-pro World Series was deja Vu. The Statis-Pro Nats, like the real life Braves, had a chance to win their last road game of the series until it slipped away at the end. In the Statis-pro series Springer hit a.walkoff Homer in the bottom of the 9th just as the Cards rallies at the end.

Like the Cardinals in real life, the Astros then clinched their series with an unbelievable explosion in the next game. For the real-life Cardinals it was a record 10-run top of the first to put away the Braves - and in the Astros case it took three innings to take the 10-0 lead en route to a 15-0 win for the 2019 Statis-Pro World Series title.

Springer had the Astros first and final (19th) hit - starting the game with a double and then finishing the scoring with a 2-run Homer to make the final 15-0. To show just how far the cards were breaking in the Astros favor - Verlander gets hits on only 4 of a 64 possible random numbers from 11-88 - and in his first three at bats a "14" - his only extra base hit - came up twice for doubles and a "12" came up once for a single (when pitchers bat then the opposing pitchers PB is not factored and most AL pitchers have the same 11-14 hits while most NL starters get hits from 11-16.)


After watching Springer's 3 homers in these Games 5 and 6 to hand the Astros their second Wold Series win in four Statis-pro seasons played on Sunday afternoon, I then tuned into their actual Game 2 against the Yankees only to see Springer hit a real life Homer before Carlos Correa hit a walk off Homer in the 11th.

While Corbin was destroyed twice in the series despite a solid on 2-8 card, it should be noted that the Astros went 39-11 against lefty starters in real MLB play this year, the best record against lefty starters since the 1950s. However, after looking at the splits on the 1984 Tigers in Statis-Pro Advanced, I believe they have the best lineup ever against lefties and the 1927 Yankees the best against righties.

Astros are Statis-Pro champs a.year after the Indians bumped them.


GAME 7 (not necessary) - Fedde vs Cole (Scherzer and Greinke available for long relief with half starters endurance - in Washington, pitchers hit)





Sunday, October 6, 2019

Favorite Sports Time: Louisville #1 Hoops? Yankees-Dodgers WS? PSU 1 of 8 Challenging Clemson?

With 8 major college football teams winning blowouts Saturday to stay undefeated, MLB quietly hoping the Dodgers can hold of the Nations tonight en route to a Yankees-Dodgers World Series, and my first running of Value Add Basketball projections showing the great Chris Mack has Louisville back on top in just his second year since a great Xavier career, this is the best sports time of year for me. (updates to this info at this blog)

My quick headlines with links to each sport:

Baseball: While the Dodgers are favorites to win the NL for the third time with Cy Young candidate Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound tonight against the Nationals, in my simulated (free) Statis-Pro game the Dodgers won a record straight 17 games only to be upset by the Braves who in turn lost in 7 games to the Nats. That Nats and Astros cards in the game are actually slightly better than the Dodgers and Yanks with three great starters (like the Dodgers) and incredible line-ups (like the Yankees). The Astros ended up ties with the Yanks in my simulated season, but edged them in the real regular season and in my playoffs as the Astros today joined the Nats in my Statis-Pro World Series. Still, MLB's dream of a ratings bonanza Yankees vs. Dodgers is just as likely in the reason game. Click for free game and player cards to play your own, or accounts of how simulated games played out for a the Nats-Astros World Series.

Basketball: This weekend I calculated the projected values of 3,725 college basketball players for the upcoming season and as always invite all of the Sports Information Directors and sports writers on this list to please make notes on this Master Google Sheet of 2020 Projections.  When I first put these out this time of year seven years ago, the great Eamonn Brennan (now at the Athletic) wrote on ESPN: "When you think about the intersection of advanced sports statistics and political forecasting, you think of Nate Silver. Far fewer people will know the name John Pudner, but college hoops fans probably should." It is great to see Chris Mack, who I've interviewed many times at Madison Square Garden during Big East Tournaments, has already assembled the best talent in the country nudging out No. 2 Duke on the team tab). Click for player projections on any of 353 college teams and feel free to make any corrections, click here for past years, or here for the free game of 48 great all-time teams, and notes on how we project NBA prospects, JUCOs etc.

Football: So it is not the best weekend to be in Auburn, but hey with an 18 year old quarterback even the fall to No. 12 points to a great future. Also, the Penn State team I traveled to see play Pitt (see blog with Tony Dorsett in front of our seats) has now outscored Big Ten opponents 94-7 to emerge as one of eight major undefeated teams making the case to dethrone defending champion Clemson.

Sure there are other things going on - from the new national sport of politics engaging such strong emotions to family sports with two of my children part of the big cross country season at South Alabama. This is why sports can be such a great escape. Even while we try to solve major and serious issues while remaining calm. I hope we can all work like ducks - frantically working like the duck's non-stop kicking under the water to stay afloat with the outside appearance of calm (as in being civil). Click here for recent Fox Ohio TV.

Take a break to enjoy family, friends and some sports (or whatever your leisure is) in between solving problems.

John Pudner 404.606.3163
valueaddsports@gmail.com for sports updates, johnp@takeback.org for work-releated




Saturday, October 5, 2019

Projecting the JUCOs and NBA Stars based on NBADraft.net and JUCORecruiting.com

While the vast majority of the projections at www.valueaddbasketball.com are based on the normal improvement of players based on their class and rankings from the previous year, I follow Bill James in the belief that you can account for the opinions of experts as well. Noone knows the NBA prospects better than Aran Smith, or the Junior College players better than Brad Wilton.

Players who Aran Smith (NBADraft.net) says are top 20 prospects average about a 9.24 ValueAdd, the rest of the players he in the top 20 will average being about a point worse, etc. all the way down the chart to the ones he lists as an honorable mention in class rankings might be worth as little as 2 points a game in college. I use his rankings in my projections to create an "alternate minimum" projection. If a players Value Add was only 1.0 in a terrible freshman year, but he is a top 30 prospect according to Aron, then I give him 70% of the average or a 5.1 projection. In most cases the player's projection is already higher than the minimum listed and they just keep their ranking.

Top 10, 20 etc NBA ProspectsAverage ValueAddAlternative Min. Proj
109.246.5
208.245.8
307.265.1
406.844.8
506.324.4
605.553.9
705.363.8
805.133.6
905.083.6
1004.963.5
1104.893.4
1204.733.3
1304.693.3
1404.483.1
1504.423.1
1604.413.1
1704.142.9
1804.042.8
1902.822.0
2002.011.4

Likewise, the six JUCO players Brad Wilton ranks as the best can routinely give teams a Value Add of 4.0 to 6.5, or occasionally you even get an All-American like Jae Crowder. Below are ratings I assign the players he says are the best of the 2019 JUCOs, though I admit I sometimes am unclear if there is a way to tell what player might not be available until next season.

NameTeamValue Add 5NotesHt
Chris DuarteOregon6.5JUCO CG Northwest Florida State6'6
Gaige PrimMissouri State6JUCO PF South Plains College6'9
Cam MackNebraska5.5JUCO PG Salt Lake CC6'2
Charles Manning JrLSU5JUCO G Florida Southwestern State6'5
James RojasAlabama4.5JUCO PF Hutchinson CC6'7
Khadim SyOle Miss4.01JUCO PF Daytona State6'10
Tyson Jolly SMU3.82JUCO SF Trinity Valley CC6'4
Jervay GreenNebraska3.75JUCO CG Western Nebraska CC6'3
Tomas Woldetensae Virginia3.59JUCO G Indian Hills CC6'5
Trey WadeWichita State3.47JUCO G/F South Plains College6'7
Andre AllenArizona State3.34JUCO F Arizona Western CC6'9
Javonte PerkinsSaint Louis3.19JUCO SF Southwestern Illinois College6'6
Tajzmel ShermanWest Virginia3.06JUCO CG Collin County CC6'4
Galen AlexanderGeorgetown2.94JUCO F Jones County CC6'6
Brandon RachalTulsa2.82JUCO G Pearl River CC6'6
Bryce WilliamsOle Miss2.71JUCO CG Daytona State6'3
Javion HamletNorth Texas2.55JUCO PG Northwest Florida State6'3
Javon FranklinAuburn2.45JUCO PF Holmes CC6'7
Wilfried Likayi New Mexico State2.36JUCO F Casper College6'9
Alonzo VergeArizona State2.2JUCO PG Moberly Area CC6'3
Eric ParrishNevada2.11JUCO G Bossier Parish CC6'7
Quenton JacksonTexas A&M2.02JUCO SG College of Central Florida6'5
Khalid ThomasArizona State1.95JUCO F College of Southern Idaho6'9
David NickleberryBuffalo1.87JUCO G/F Trinity Valley CC6'7
Marvin JohnsonEastern Illinois1.74JUCO SF Coffeyville CC6'6
David SloanKansas State1.57JUCO PG John A Logan College6'1
Keishawn BrewtonCoastal Carolina1.51JUCO CG Chipola College6'3
Xaiver ArmsteadLouisiana Tech1.43JUCO G McLennan College6'5
JJ MilesEast Carolina1.36JUCO SF Cape Fear CC6'7
Alondes WilliamsOklahoma1.33JUCO G Triton College6'5
Emmanuel UgbohTulsa1.29JUCO C Iowa Western CC6'11
James ReeseNorth Texas1.26JUCO SG Odessa College6'4
Lony Francis JrArkansas State1.22JUCO PF Vincennes University6'7
Malik CurryOld Dominion1.19JUCO PG Palm Beach State6'2
Atticus TaylorNC State1.15JUCO G/F Southwest Mississippi CC6'7
Yeikson MonteroEastern Michigan1.14JUCO SG Pensacola State6'5
Trey PulliamSan Diego State1.11JUCO G Navarro College6'3
James Jean-MarieSan Diego1.07JUCO SF Navarro College6'7
Emmanuel BandoumelSMU1.06JUCO G Hill College6'4
Ruot MonyyongArkansas Little Rock1.04JUCO PF Shelton State6'11
Ronne ReadusCal State Bakersfield1JUCO C Fullerton College6'9
AJ BramahRobert Morris1JUCO SF Sheridan College6'7
Nathanael JackFlorida State0.97JUCO SG Eastern Florida State6'5
Roberto GittensUC Santa Barbara0.95JUCO SG College of Southern Idaho6'5
Ryan MurphyPitt0.93JUCO SG New Mexico JC6'2
DJ RussellRobert Morris0.91JUCO PF Miami Dade College6'7
RayQuan EvansFlorida State0.89JUCO G North Idaho College6'4
Luka BarisicUTSA0.86JUCO F Highland CC6'9
Rich WashingtonSan Jose St0.83JUCO SF Tallahassee CC6'6
Maddox DanielsColorado0.81JUCO SG Florida Southwestern State6'6
Trevion LamarGeorgia Southern0.79JUCO G/F Northern Oklahoma Tonkawa6'5
Donte TatumSamford0.77JUCO PG Cape Fear CC6'2
Tyrie JacksonEast Carolina0.74JUCO CG Northwest Florida State6'2
Shakem JohnsonTennessee State0.72JUCO PF Navarro College6'7
Eric VilaUTEP0.72JUCO PF Northwest Florida State6'10
Keith ClemonsLoyola Chicago0.71JUCO CG Vincennes University6'1
Eric LovettFIU0.7JUCO SG Missouri West Plains6'4
Isaac BontonWashington State0.68JUCO CG Casper College6'3
Bitumba BarutiEast Carolina0.64JUCO F Chipola College6'6
Kimani BinderPortland State0.62JUCO SG Indian River State6'3
Sebit Reath0.6JUCO PF Lee College6'10
Deang DeangEastern Illinois0.56JUCO CG Highland CC6'4
Doudou GueyeLA Lafayete0.53JUCO SF/PF Daytona State6'8
Sean McNeilWest Virginia0.5JUCO SG Sinclair CC6'4
Anyeuri CastilloKent State0.46JUCO PF Central Georgia Tech6'7
Isiah SmallTexas State0.43JUCO SF Seward County CC6'8
Jeremy SheppardRhode Island0.39JUCO SG College of Central Florida6'2
Jalen WarrenFGCU0.34JUCO PG Eastern Florida State6'2
Malcolm JohnsonUC Davis0.31JUCO G/F City College of San Francisco6'5
Cameron JohnsonStephen F Austin0.28JUCO G Tyler JC6'3
Sean Miller-MooreOregon State0.26JUCO SF Moberly Area CC6'5
Jonah AntonioUNLV0.22JUCO SG South Plains College6'4
Daron HensonWashington State0.2JUCO PF Salt Lake CC6'8
Alfonso PlummerUtah0.2JUCO CG Arizona Western CC6'1
Jalon PipkinsLoyola Chicago0.2JUCO G Paris JC6'4
Kayne HenryJacksonville State0.2JUCO SF Northwest Florida State6'7
Avery DiggsUCF0.2JUCO C Southwest Mississippi6'11
Gavin KensmilStephen F Austin0.2JUCO F Navarro College6'7
Alsean EvansArkansas Little Rock0.2JUCO SF Polk State6'6
Martin RoubJacksonville State0.2JUCO PF/C Western Nebraska CC6'11
Cam ReeceAkron0.2JUCO PF/C Sheridan College6'6
Demarkus LampleySam Houston State0.2JUCO SG Wallace State Hanceville6'3
Torrey Patton0.2JUCO G Indian Hills CC6'4
Kevin NormanJacksonville0.2JUCO Wing Angelina College6'4
Jaren EnglishSt Bonaventure0.2JUCO Wing Ranger College6'4
Demiere BrownStephen F Austin0.2JUCO PF  Kilgore College6'7
Lenell HenryCoastal Carolina0.2JUCO PF Panola College6'7
Caleb Coleman0.2JUCO SF State Fair CC6'5
Jubrile BeloMontana State0.2JUCO PF Lamar CC6'9
Solomon HuntChicago State0.2JUCO PF East Los Angeles6'8
Chris OrlinaMcNeese State0.2JUCO SF South Plains College6'6
Tariq SimmonsSouth Carolina State0.2JUCO PG Panola College6'1
Kassim NicholsonUAB0.2JUCO G/F Holmes CC6'6
Shawn Stith Cal State Bakersfield0.2JUCO PF Saddleback College6'7
Damien SearsSt Johns0.2JUCO PF Western OK State6'7
Keiodre PerryJacksonville State0.2JUCO SG Northern Oklahoma Tonkawa6'4
Roti WareStephen F Austin0.2JUCO G East Central CC6'3
AJ McNeil Iona0.2JUCO G Redlands CC6'0
Jamir ThomasYoungstown State0.2JUCO PF Garden City CC6'8
Edra LusterEast Carolina0.2JUCO F/C Tyler JC6'11
Adham EleedaNorthern Kentucky0.1JUCO SG Sheridan College6'4
AJ Cox0.1JUCO G Southeastern CC6'2
Alex MoralesWagner0.1JUCO Wing Prince George's CC6'5
Blake FurcronFIU0.1JUCO G Pratt CC6'5
Cedric BrimNorth Alabama0.1JUCO PG Pearl River CC5'10
Chance HunterLong Beach Satte0.1JUCO G Cerritos College6'6
Chris FreemanUTRGV0.1JUCO SG Northwest Kansas Tech6'6
DeMierre BlackIPFW0.1JUCO SG Roane State6'3
Devale Johnson0.1JUCO F Williston State6'7
Dru KuxhausenMcNeese State0.1JUCO G Western Nebraska CC6'2
Durey CaldwellLouisiana Lafayette0.1JUCO SG Daytona State6'5
Dyshane MurphyMontevallo (D2)0.1JUCO PG USC Salkehatchie5'11
Ellis JeffersonLamar0.1JUCO CG Clarendon College6'2
Iziah JamesSIU Edwardsville0.1JUCO PG Indian Hills CC6'0
Jalin WimberlyPurdue Fort Wayne0.1JUCO SF Andrew6'4
Khalyl WatersTroy0.1JUCO SF Georgia Highlands College6'6
Matt JohnsonSt Bonaventure0.1JUCO G Howard College6'4
Miles ThomasUT Martin0.1JUCO F Walters State6'6
Parker DortchLoyola Marymount0.1JUCO F Kaskaskia CC6'7
Ravel MoodyTennessee State0.1JUCO F Northeastern Oklahoma A&M6'6
Sita ContehUTRGV0.1JUCO F Williston State6'8
Terryonte ThomasSam Houston State0.1JUCO G/F East Mississippi CC6'4
Thomas BinelliEastern Michigan0.1JUCO F Monroe College6'8
Tray BuchananSouth Dakota State0.1JUCO G Des Moines Area CC6'1
Wesley HarrisUC Davis0.1JUCO F Otero JC6'6

Monday, September 30, 2019

Astros, Nats Survive Game 6 Losses for Come-from-Behind Game 7s to Advance to Statis-Pro World Series

We finished our simulated MLB season a little ahead of the real season to see how it might play out. This blog covered previous games in our Statis-pro 2019 playoffs. The summary of both League series start at the bottom of the blog with Games 1 and 2, then works up so the latest game is at the top of this blog. You can play your own games for free with dice and by clicking here to print off rules and basic players, and if you like the basic game click on the really cool advanced cards.

World Series Set

The League Championship series ended with similar scripts, as both road teams won Game 6 to force a decisive Game 7, and then jumped ahead in Game 7 only to see the bats of both home teams erupt late for come-from-behind wins. I know the MLB execs will hope for a Yankees-Dodgers World Series in the real game, but both were upset in our Statis-Pro simulated games - the Dodgers even though they set an all-time Statis-Pro record for me with 17 straight regular season games.

NL - Games 6/7 - Braves 6-3 then Nationals 6-1. In Game 6, Keuchel proved the playoff acquisition the Braves hoped with seven scoreless innings, and the Braves took  a 6-0 one homers by Acuna, Albies and Swanson, and a rare hit and run triple by Inciarte. Only a 3-run homer in the top of the 9th cut the final to 6-3, but it did also force the Braves to bring in Minter for the Save rather than keep him fresh for Game 7. In Game 7, Scherzer gave the Nats the edge, but Freeman took him deep in the first inning for a 1-0 Braves lead. Scherzer worked through seven innings with only that one run allowed, and a double by Robles and single by Soto in the 3rd tied the game. However, in the 7th and 8th Martin and Melancon could not hold the tie, as three of the first six batters they faced - Cabrera, Suzuki and Soto - homered to send the Nats to the Statis-Pro World Series with a 6-1 win.

AL - Games 6/7 - Twins 6-3, then Astros 9-5. The Statis-Pro Game 6 resembled the actual Rays-Astros Game 2 the night before with Osuna struggling to hold a lead. He gave up two singles and then a 3-run homer to Sano and former Astro Gonzalez added a solo HR off Rondon to force a Game 6 in a series in which (much like their actual series against the Yankees) the Twins looked completely overmatched in 7-0 and 7-1 wins. Perhaps Twins fans can hope for a similar turnaround against the Yankees in Games 3 and 4, but their starting pitching does look week - there were lucky in their draw in Statis-Pro as the Yankees and Astros played each other first while the Twins barely beat the Rays and Indians. In Game 7 the Astros were in even deeper trouble than the Nats, as Sano hit another 3-run HR in the first and Rosario added a 2-run homer in the 5th to make it 5-1 Twins. However Altuve had 4 of the Astros 13 hits as they exploded for seven runs in the 5th and 6th inning. One of the 13 hits was a hard grounder down the first base line and Cron failed to make a clutch defensive play (CD) to let it get to the corner for a 2-run double that capped a 4-run 5th to tie the score. Almost certainly rookie of the year Alvarez (whose projected card is great but not nearly as good as his actual stats in MLB) capped a 3-run 6th with a 2-run HR as the Astros comeback left them in the World Series against the Nats.





Summaries of Games 3, 4 and 5 in parks of underdogs

NL - Game 3 - Nationals 2, Braves 1 in 12 innings. The Nats continued to play with fire despite dominance, almost wasting 9.2 innings of 2-hit ball by Scherzer despite outhitting the Braves 9-3. The Nats left the bases loaded multiple times for the second playoff game, but after striking out his first 5 at bats Turner doubled and stole 3rd base with no outs. Despite the infield being in a Z-play resulted in Donaldson knocking down a grounder by Soto and could only get the play at first in the top of the 12th. Until then, the only scores until then occurred on Rendon and Markakis trading HRs. The Nats now lead 2 games to 1. Game 4 - Braves 4, Nats 0 - Fried outdueled Strasburg with a rare complete game shutout. Albies clutch double in the 3rd made it 2-0 Braves, and Donaldson's 2-run single in the 8th gave the Braves insurance to tied the series two games apiece. Game 5 - Nats 3, Braves 1 - Corbin struck out the side with bases loaded and no outs in the second and Rendon (elite clutch defense 5) made a spectacular play in the 8th to preserve the lead. Soto hit a 2-run Homer and sengled and scored for the final margin to give the Nats a 3 games to 2 lead as they face Keuchel in Game 6 but would have Scherzer in Game 7 if needed.

AL - Game 3 - Twins 2, Astros 0. After having to start with the 3rd and 4th starters in two blow out losses in Houston, Staris-Pro Ace Pineda threw 6 no hit innings and threw a complete game shutout with no Astro reaching 2nd base. In the 8th inning Buxton hit a 2-run HR off Osuna to pull the Twins within 2 games to 1 in the best of 7. Game 4 - Astros 6, Twins 5. in the only game in which they did not have a pitching disadvantage, the Twins rallied from down 5-0 to tied the game by the bottom of the 8th on Sano's 2-run Homer. However an error on former Astro Gonzalez to start the top of the 9th put Reddick on first, Springer's single to right moved him to third, and Bregman's sac fly made it 6-5. Pressley wrapped up the save. The Astros go up 3 games to 1. Game 4 - Twins 3, Astros 2.-
Trailing 2-0 to Verlander and 8 outs from being eliminated, former Astros Gonzalez hit a Homer to make it 2-1 and chase Verlander in the 7th. Kepler then tied it in the 8th on a single by Rosario that skipped under the blove of left fielder Brantley and Buxton was the hero with a walkoff double in the 9th. The Twins pull to within 3 games to 2.







Summaries of Games 1 and 2

The two teams with tired pitching due to needing to go five games to win their last series (Twins and Nationals) each lost Game 1 of their League Championship series to the teams the wrapped up series in four games.

NL - Game 1/2 - Braves 6-4, Nats 6-4. In Game 1 the Nats actually outhit the Braves 12-9, but left bases loaded in the 5th, 6th and 7th to fall 6-4. In Game 2 the Braves jumped ahead 4-0 when Albies, Freeman and Swanson all homered off Fedde, but the bullpen could not hold onto Keuchel's lead. The Nats sent 11 to the plate in a 5-run 5th on homers by Kendrick and Soto and doubles by Turner and Zimmerman. Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin will pitch three games in Atlanta before games 6 and 7 come back to Washington if necessary.

AL - Games 1/2 - Astros beat Twins 7-1 and 7-0. Correa (who the Astros hope is really healed for the playoffs) had two doubles and a single for a 7-1 win in Verlander's 2-hitter. In Game 2 Cole was even more dominant, setting down the first 21 Twins before Rosario broke up the perfect game with a single to lead off the 8th. Cruz doubled in the 9th but Cole finished with the complete game shutout. Springer's clutch 3-run Homer in the second was only made possible by an error by the pitcher Perez earlier in the inning.





Additional games of the best of 7 will be posted as they are played.

Wednesday, September 18, 2019

How much pitchers can pitch in playoffs - study of last three years

In 2020, MLB will require relief pitchers to either complete the inning he is pitching, or pitch to at least three batters. Players of baseball board or computer games of all kinds know that deciding how often, when and how long pitchers can pitch is a great part of the fun of the game.

Executive Summary for how much we let pitchers throw:

Pitching in playoff gameRules for use in Next Game
Pitches for 2nd straight gameCannot Pitch
Pitch to at least 6 battersCannot Pitch
Pitch to 1 to 5 battersPB lowered by 1; max 8 batters between BOTH games
Regular season 1 of 2 games only(all regular season series are 2-games in our league)

In my regular season, I allow pitchers to finish the inning or pitch to either 3 or 4 pitchers - no more or no less - to make the game move along, so I've been a step ahead of MLB. I also only allowed each reliever to pitch one out of every two games - and I play all 2-game series to make it easy to keep track. If a pitcher is used in the first of two games then he is not available in the second game, but if not then you may as well use him if needed. This gives a very realistic maximum use of each pitcher over the course of a season.

However, in the playoffs pitchers are actually used more - so I did a study to decide how much to use them in my upcoming playoffs. I researched any pitcher who pitched at least half of the teams playoff games for any of the ALCS or NLCS teams (47 total pitchers, or an average of four pitchers for each of the 12 League Championship teams. The following lists the team, how many playoff games the team had that season, and how many of those games the pitcher was used and what percentage of games that represents.

The "RR" is a Statis-Pro term for tracking the reduction of a reliever's endurance for every time he allows a player to reach first, or allowed an earned run or inning ends, and this figure averaged 2.6 among these pitchers. The pitchers threw to an average of four batters in each of these games. Based on that, I am using these rules for playoff pitchers.

Here are the pitchers on which I based this number.


Pitched half PO GmsTEAMYearTeam GmsPitcher Gms% gamesAve. RRBatter/GmERA
Top 4 relievers each team12.58.064%2.64.03.43
Brandon MorrowLAD2017151493%2.33.53.95
Corey KnebelMIL201810990%1.83.60.90
Roberto OsunaTOR20168788%1.94.00.00
Kenley JansenLAD2017151387%2.34.21.62
Aroldis ChapmanCHC2016161381%2.94.53.45
Jeremy JeffressMIL201810880%4.35.26.75
Brett CecilTOR20168675%1.22.30.00
Joe BiaginiTOR20168675%1.93.90.00
Tony WatsonLAD2017151173%1.42.32.57
Matt BarnesBOS2018141071%1.83.11.04
Carl Edwards Jr.CHC201710770%2.62.811.57
Joakim SoriaMIL201810770%2.32.87.71
Josh HaderMIL201810770%2.34.70.00
Mike MontgomeryCHC2016161169%3.65.43.14
Ryan MadsonLAD2018161169%2.03.12.08
Andrew MillerCLE2016151067%3.96.91.40
Cody AllenCLE2016151067%2.64.90.00
Ryan BrasierBOS201814964%2.43.81.04
Craig KimbrelBOS201814964%3.84.95.91
Joe KellyBOS201814964%2.24.20.79
Joe BlantonLAD201611764%3.74.77.88
Kenley JansenLAD201611764%3.65.73.09
Pedro BaezLAD201611764%2.74.12.57
Grant DaytonLAD201611764%2.02.38.10
Lance McCullers Jr.HOU20188563%2.43.91.80
Ryan PresslyHOU20188563%2.03.51.80
Pedro BaezLAD2018161063%2.23.91.59
Jason GrilliTOR20168563%0.81.90.00
David RobertsonNYY201713862%4.36.34.15
Kenta MaedaLAD201715960%2.03.80.84
Corbin BurnesMIL201810660%2.74.92.00
Travis WoodCHC201616956%1.72.62.84
Kenley JansenLAD201816956%2.13.81.69
Alex WoodLAD201816956%2.53.25.40
Chris DevenskiHOU2017181056%2.83.49.00
Tommy KahnleNYY201713754%3.25.42.38
Eduardo RodriguezBOS201814750%4.05.46.30
Wade DavisCHC201710550%4.05.54.26
Brian DuensingCHC201710550%2.23.81.69
Pedro StropCHC201710550%2.03.61.69
Mike MontgomeryCHC201710550%6.05.816.62
Pedro StropCHC201616850%1.72.53.18
Carl Edwards Jr.CHC201616850%2.13.22.84
Collin McHughHOU20188450%1.33.00.00
Roberto OsunaHOU20188450%4.35.67.50
Dylan FloroLAD201816850%2.53.63.86
Kenta MaedaLAD201816850%2.73.64.05
Top 4 relievers each team12.58.064%2.64.03.43


adddd

Baseball Board Game Results: 24 of 30 Teams Finish Within 2 Games of Actual MLB Win%

After playing 234 games with current 2019 rosters, the following were my standings. The tweak I've gone to over the years - which seems to provide even more realistic results with a truer test - is to count each game as a 3-game series. Normally the winning team is credited with 2 wins and the losing team with 1 win UNLESS the winning team lead by 5 or more runs after 8 innings without using their top reliever. A team has about a 14% chance of accomplishing this in any given game, the same chance a team has of winning all three games of a series.

For anyone who enjoys any baseball board game, you may want to try this. Here is a grid of games this season (still filling some in)

The following is each team's record (this is my NL year, the only AL games are interleague). For each team I list their record in my games - so the Dodgers went 55-32 - then I list how much better or worse this is than their actual MLB winning percentage through September 18 would dictate (the Dodgers went 55-32 in my game for a .632 winning percentage, which is actually one game below (-1) the 56-31 they would have played if they hit their actual MLB .645 winning percentage this season.

Twenty-four of 30 teams were within 2 games of where they would have expected to finish based on their actual MLB winning percentage - so I bolded the two that performed much better and four that performed worse in the board game than in real life.

Statis-Pro teamDivisionWinsLosses+ or - actualBoard gameWin%
Dodgers (Div)NL West5532-10.632
PadresNL West464170.529
GiantsNL West424220.500
DiamondbacksNL West3642-40.462
RockiesNL West263400.433
Nationals (Div)NL East523920.571
Braves (wc)NL East5140-50.560
Mets (wc)NL East504040.556
PhilliesNL East464400.511
MarlinsNL East223810.367
Cubs (Div)NL Central494100.544
BrewersNL Central4743-20.522
CardinalsNL Central4143-60.488
RedsNL Central3747-20.440
PiratesNL Central2535-10.417
Astros (Div)AL West75-10.583
MarinersAL West5700.417
RangersAL West57-10.417
AngelsAL West39-20.250
AthleticsAL West210-50.167
Yankees (Div)AL East75-10.583
Rays (wc)AL East76-10.538
Red SoxAL East67-10.462
BlueJaysAL East48-10.333
OriolesAL East4800.333
Indians (Div)AL Central9320.750
Twins (wc)AL Central7500.583
WhiteSoxAL Central5700.417
RoyalsAL Central4800.333
TigersAL Central4800.333
7047040.500
AL Record791030.434


Monday, September 16, 2019

Statis-Pro Playoffs 2019 Bracket if no injuries: Astros, Braves, Twins and Nats-Cubs go 13 for final spot.

Coverage of the ALCS and NLCS Statis-Pro season moves to here.

Our 2019 Statis-Pro Playoffs are set. This year was our NL year, so we played extended 90-game seasons on the NL side and quick 12-game seasons on the AL resulting in these playoffs. The wrap up of the end of the season is here.  Five of the top 6 teams in each league as of September 21 also made the Statis-Pro playoffs - with the A's and Cardinals the two two did NOT in Statis-Pro, which uses the cards for the same players but without any injuries (e.g. Carrasco and Kluber pitch for the Indians).

Current: Astros 3-1 eliminates Yankees, Twins 3-2 eliminates Indians, Braves 3-1 eliminates Dodgers, and you need to scroll down to see incredible finale between Nats and Cubs for the 4th team still alive.


To play Statis-Pro baseball yourself click this google sheet (includes cards for all MLB players and instructions) and two 6-sided dice, two 8-sided dice and one 20-sided die. We are using cards for any player on this team-by-team list who played for a team at all in 2019 by the end of September. The rules for resting pitchers are here, and our most popular post on who to record a score sheet is here.

In the Statis-Pro Season 24 of 30 teams finished within 2 games of what their record would have been is they had their real life winning percentage. Click here for a full breakdown. 


NL

At Braves 3, Mets 0 in wildcard. Six Braves' pitchers worked out of multiple bases loaded and other Mets threats until former Red Billy Hamilton - who came in during a double switch, hit a 2-run single in the seventh inning to send the Braves onto play the Dodgers. (scoresheet at bottom)

Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers 5-game Series. Game 1 Braves 4, Dodgers 1. Donaldson singled home Albies to break up Kershaw's shutout in the 7th, and the Braves added 3 insurance homers in the 9th on a homer by Swanson and double by Inciarte. However, Donaldson failed to come up with a clutch play on a hard grounder down the third baseline by Pederson in the 9th to chase Soroka, but Minter came in for the save. ESPN predictor picks Soroka and Kershaw to finish 2nd and 3rd for Cy Young.  Game 2 - Braves 7, Dodgers 3. Freeman hits a clutch batting (BD) 2-run HR of Buehler in the 2nd, drew a walk to start a 4-run rally in the 7th, the came up with a clutch Fielding (cd) snag of a line drive over first base to turn a would be rbi double into a lineout double play. The Dodgers were my first Statis-pro team to win 17 actual games in a row this season, but will now need to win 3 straight to advance to the NLCS. Game 3 - Dodgers 2, Braves 1. Ryu single-handedly kept the Dodgers season alive, throwing 7 shutout innings and delivering a 2-run single in the 5th. After allowing a solo shot by Acuna to lead off the 8th, Alexander relieved Ryu and retired the last 6 for the save - catching one break when Donaldson ran into his slow roller to first to officially get a single but be ruled out. Game 4 - Braves 7, Dodgers 5. After my all-time Statis-pro regular season winning streak of 17 straight, the Dodgers were eliminated 3 games to 1 by the Braves. Donaldson delivered a 3-run HR in the third to make it 5-3 Bravesa Minter came on with 2 on and 2 out in the 7th and struck out 4 in a row. The Dodgers top 4 took a last shot in the 9th off Martin with a triple (Pollack), walk (Bellinger), double (Turner) and single Pederson) to chase Minter, but with the Braves almost out of pitchers Newcomb (only an average PB4-7) saved the 7-5 win.



Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals 5-game Series. Game 1 - Cubs 3, Nationals 0. Scherzer allowed only two hits, but they were homer by Happ and 2-run HR by Baez and Darvish went the distance to beat the best Statis-Pro pitcher's card in the game for the upset. Game 2 -  Nationals 6, Cubs 5. Soto's two 2-run HRs - both following Turner singles - proved just enough to tie the series as closer Rosenthal induced a ground out by Baez to end the game with the tying and go ahead runs in scoring position after a single and double. Strasburg was brilliant for 7 innings, with the only 2 runs allowed on a 5th inning collision between Zimmerman and Robles (z-play injury) that resulted in an rbi double. Game 3 - Cubs 8, Nationals 4. In the actual MLB season the Cubs are suffering from big injuries, but in Statis-Pro they benefitted from Zimmerman, Suzuki and most importantly Corbin (the Nats 3rd starter but a PB2-8 as a top 15% pitcher) all being ejected in the second inning. As if the bullpen wasn't stretched enough, both corner outfielders for the Nats let singles skip past them - allowing two runs to score on a single by Lucroy and three more on a single by Costellanos for an 8-4 Cubs in putting them one game from winning the series. Game 4 - Nationals 7,Cubs  6. Soto's double scored the game-winner in a game in which Turner's 2-run HR made it 4-1 Nats and Heyward's grandslam made it 5-4 Cubs. Rosenthal needed to overcome another tough break for the Nats as Eaton and Soto collided to allow and 8th inning double (making a record 7 Nats that have left a game I. The series due to ejection or injury. However, they now get a rematch of Scherzer and Darvish in the decisive finale. Game 5 - Nationals 4, Cubs  3 (13 innings). After the Nats all time bad luck in having 7 players either ejected or injured in the first 4 games of the series, a Darvish vs. Scherzer rematch from game 1 took 13 innings to determine who advanced to play the Braves for the pennant. Scherzer gave 6 shutout innings for a 1-0 lead before tiring, but as soon as he left Baez singled off Grace, and then excellent 3rd baseman Rendon failed to make a clutch play on a grouder to put men on the corners with 0 outs. Bryant's sac fly tied it 1-1 in the 7th. In the bottom of the 8th Turner homered to make it 2-1 and Soto doubled but Kimbrel relieved and escaped damage in the 8th or 9th. However Rizzo homered off Ace reliever Rosenthal in the top of the 9th to force extra innings. Both teams then went to their Game 2 starters for the 10th and 11th. Strasburg struck out 6 in the two innings, but in between Heyward hit an apparent series winning Homer and alomar and Kemp singled to put men on the corners before Scherzer escaped. However, Soto led off the 10th with a walk, and pinch runner Stevenson stole 2nd against Lucroy's great arm, went to third on Rendon's grounder to first, and scored on Zimmerman's sac fly. Hamel aloa pitched a hitless 11th to leave with no hits allowed but one crucial run. In the top of the 13th Baez singled with 2 outs off Sipp and stole second, but Rizzo grounded out. The Cubs were down to Maples for the 13th, and Rendon singled, Zimmerman singled him to second, and on Eaton's single to right Heyward's T5 against Rendon's on-base running (OBR) D was still not enough as Rendon scored in Sid Bream style to win the series and send the Nats to the NL Statis-pro championship against the Braves.






Final two in Best-of-Seven NL Championship.

AL

At Minnesota 7,Tampa Bay Rays 6 for wild card. IN the shcoker of the season, the Rays led 6-0 going into the bottom of the 8th with great relievers lined up, buy Cruz and Sano both homered in the 8th and then were part of five consecutive singles in the 9th to pull off the shocking come-from behind win.(scoresheet at bottom)

Twins at Cleveland Indians 5-game Series. Game 1, Indians 3, Twins 2. Perez induced a grounder to 3rd from Nelson Cruz with 2 on and 2 out in the 9th to preserve a 3-2 Indians win. Lindor tripled home Ramirez on a hit and run in the 1st, scored, then singled in a run in the 6th to count for all Indians runs, but the Indians managed to chase perhaps the best pitcher's card in the game (Carrasco) with 4 straight hits in the 5th but he was saved when Naquin threw out Kepler trying to score from second on a single. Game 2 - Twins 4, Indians 3. Vazquez recorded a save by coming in to strike out Lindor with 2 on in the 8th, then overcoming the Twins second error of the game in the ninth to hold onto the one run win. Sano singled and scored to tie the game 1-1 in the 7th and chase Kluber, then singed home two more runs after a Rosario double to make it 4-2 before Kipnis doubled and scored in teh bottom of the 8th to cut it to 4-3. Game 3 - Twins 8, Indians 2. The Twins HRs by Kepler (4 hits), Cron and Rosario put the defending Statis-Pro AL champs on the brink of elimination, 2 games to 1. The Twins pitching is suspect - a lot of average starters and relievers but no shutdown Statis-Pro cards, but they can slug and a win in Game 4 would let them clinch without needing to face Carrasco (a rare PB2-9 as a starter, meaning top 5% of all pitchers) in a decisive Game 5.Game 4 - Indians 5 Twins 3 - Watching Clevinger's jerky motion on TV while he allowed only 1 run in 5 innings - striking out Cron with bases loaded in the 5th to preserve a 5-1 lead and force a decisive game 5. Reyes 2-run HR capped a 4-run 4th that overcame Marwin Gonzalez two HRs. Game 5 - Twins 10, Indians 2. The Indians' defense did not back up one of the best few pitchers in the game in Cassasco. Naquin (Clyde defense 4) failed to make a clutch defensive play on Cruz's line drive but did keep it in front of him for a single. However with bases loaded Rosario's deep drive to right was dropped by Puig, who has a great arm but does make some errors (e3) to score 3 unearned runs and make it 4-1 twins. The big inning also helped wear down Cassasco which led to him only lasting into the 6th, at which point the Twins scored 4 off Otero to make it 9-1, and the 10-2 final sent them to the ALCS to face the Astros. They used balance, with only Buxton and Kepler having two hits and only Sano homering.










Houston Astros at New York Yankees 5-game Series. Game 1 - Astros 1, Yankees 0. Game 1 went to Verlander 1-0. Bergman appeared to hit a 2-run Homer in the 7th, but despite replay they ruled it foul and he was ejected for arguing (z-play). Pressley struckout Encarnacion to end the game with men on 2nd and 3rd, making Correa's rbi single in the 1st the game winner. Game 2 - Astros 2, Yankees 1. Bregman's HR started a two-run fifth, and Cole alloweed Gregorius and LaMahleu to hit back-to-back singles twice, , but only gave up one run on a solo by Voit in the 6th inning.
Game 3 - Yankees 9, Astros 4.  Astros one-two punch The first team facing elimination, the Yankees destroyed former Diamondback Greinke and relievers, outhitting the Astros 15-5. Stanton, Torres, Sanchez and Voit all hit 2-run HRs - the last one enabling them to rest Chapman so he is full strength for Game 4. Game 4 - Astros 3, Yankees 0.  Miley, pitched like he did until September in real MLB play (No. 3 ERA in AL at that point before collapsing) with 8 great innings before allowing 2 singles and a deep drive in the 9th. Pressley came in to complete the shutout. Loaisiga almost matched him in the matchup of the 4th best Statis-pro cards on each team (Severino was not eligible due to not pitching in actual MLB play). He allowed only an RBI groundout to Bregman in the third before Brantley homered to lead off the 7th and chase him, and Springer rbi single off PB2-9 Green made it 3-0 and send the Astros to the ALCS against the Indians or Twins.







Final two in Best-of-Seven AL Championship.

World Series Best of 7.


Below is a photo of the scoresheet of each wild card game and all four Game 1s so that each line-up we are using appears once (minus any platoons, etc.).