Sunday, January 10, 2021

Garza Tops 1st Value Add Basketball Rankings

We have had some hiccups in getting the Value Add Basketball rankings calculated and posted this year, but here is the first top 50 of the year through games of Christmas (yes, we are a couple of weeks behind). We believe we have worked through all the kinks, so hopefully we will get these more current and updated more regularly during the rest of the season.

You can see more details on each player, and the entire list of players better than a replacement player by clicking on this google sheet, and hopefully soon these numbers will all be successfully imported into www.valueaddbasketball.com

If you are new to Value Add Basketball rankings, the calculation is based on all offensive and defensive stats as well as the level of competition faced and team defense. The row below indicates that Garza's Value Add is 12.78, meaning if he missed a game and was replaced by a standard replacement player, Iowa would average being 13 points worse. In other words, if they won a game by 7 points with Garza playing, they would have lost the same game by 6 points (a 13 point swing) if he was replaced.

Thank you for your patience! 

Nat'lAll-American 1st TeamTeamValue AddConfHtClass
1Luka GarzaIowa12.78B106'11"Sr
2Oscar da SilvaStanford11.95P126'9"Sr
3Marcus CarrMinnesota11.38B106'2"Jr
4Ron HarperRutgers10.9B106'6"Jr
5Brandon MahanUCF10.76Amer6'5"Sr
6Kendric DavisSMU10.58Amer5'11"Jr
7Matthew HurtDuke10.57ACC6'9"So
8Isaiah WongMiami FL10.51ACC6'3"So
9Alex BarcelloBYU10.37WCC6'2"Sr
10Rasir BoltonIowa St.10.09B126'3"Jr
11Corey KispertGonzaga10.03WCC6'7"Sr
12James BouknightConnecticut9.93BE6'5"So
13Trayce Jackson-DavisIndiana9.89B106'9"So
14Ayo DosunmuIllinois9.77B106'5"Jr
15Quincy GuerrierSyracuse9.74ACC6'7"So
16Miles McBrideWest Virginia9.61B126'2"So
17Terry TaylorAustin Peay9.51OVC6'5"Sr
18Chris DuarteOregon9.48P126'6"Sr
19Evan MobleyUSC9.25P127'0Fr
20Jalen SuggsGonzaga9.25WCC6'4"Fr
21McKinley WrightColorado9.24P126'0Sr
22Collin GillespieVillanova9.12BE6'3"Sr
23Max AbmasOral Roberts9.05Sum6'1"So
24Ibi WatsonDayton8.98A106'5"Sr
25Cameron KrutwigLoyola Chicago8.87MVC6'9"Sr
26Taevion KinseyMarshall8.85CUSA6'5"Jr
27Matt ColemanTexas8.66B126'2"Sr
28Ochai AgbajiKansas8.65B126'5"Jr
29KJ WaltonBall St.8.53MAC6'3"Sr
30Dominick WelchSt. Bonaventure8.51A106'5"Jr
31Jared ButlerBaylor8.46B126'3"Jr
32Kevin SamuelTCU8.41B126'11"Jr
33Emanuel MillerTexas A&M8.37SEC6'7"So
34Paul ScruggsXavier8.24BE6'4"Sr
35Michael WeathersTexas Southern8.21SWAC6'3"Sr
36Obadiah NoelUMass Lowell8.21AE6'4"Sr
37DeVante' JonesCoastal Carolina8.18SB6'1"Jr
38Remy MartinArizona St.8.17P126'0Sr
39Jacob GilyardRichmond8.14A105'9"Sr
40Nathan MensahSan Diego St.8.13MWC6'10"Jr
41Anthony PoliteFlorida St.8.05ACC6'6"Jr
42Baylor ScheiermanSouth Dakota St.8.03Sum6'6"So
43Tyson WalkerNortheastern8.03CAA6'0So
44JaQuori McLaughlinUC Santa Barbara7.99BW6'4"Sr
45Mac McClungTexas Tech7.98B126'2"Jr
46Tanner GrovesEastern Washington7.96BSky6'9"Jr
47Michael HughesDuquesne7.9A106'8"Sr
48Drew TimmeGonzaga7.88WCC6'10"So
49Quentin GrimesHouston7.8Amer6'5"Jr
50Isaiah StevensColorado St.7.77MWC6'0So

Saturday, December 26, 2020

1st Value Add Basketball Rankings To Be Released Soon

In the coming days we will release our first Value Add Basketball rankings, with basketball players from 335 teams ranked. Currently the 22 other teams are 0-0 (have not played), so the players for 12 other teams will be added after their first game and 10 teams cancelled their whole season - leaving 347 teams in action this year.

The Ivy League is not playing this year, and the following eight Patriot League teams will play back-to-back games each weekend against the same opponent for all of January, so those teams will be included after their first games. The other two Patriot League teams - Army and Navy - already began their seasons.

Patriot LeagueJan 2-3, 9-10, 16-17, 23-24
AmericanLoyola, Lehigh, Navy. Loyola MD
Boston UniversityHoly Cross, Colgate, Army, Lafayette
BucknellNavy, Lafayette, Lehigh, Colgate
ColgateArmy, Boston U, Holy Cross, Bucknell
Holy CrossBoston U, Army, Colgate, Lehigh
LafayetteLehigh, Bucknell, Loyola, Boston U
LehighLafayette, American, Bucknell, Holy Cross
Loyola MDAmerican, Navy, Lafayette, American

The 8 Ivy League teams as well as Bethune Cookman and Maryland Eastern Shore will not play any games this season, meaning we will end up with teams from 347 teams playing this year. Below are the first games for the four non-Patriot League teams planning to take the court in the coming days.
 
Other 0-0 Teams1st Game Schedule
Alabama St.1/2 host Grambling St.
Siena1/3 and 1/4 host Monmouth
Merrimack1/7 and 1/8 host Sacred Heart
Fordham12/30 host George Washington
Bethune CookmanWill not play
Maryland Eastern ShoreWill not play
BrownIvy League will not play
ColumbiaIvy League will not play
CornellIvy League will not play
DartmouthIvy League will not play
HarvardIvy League will not play
PennIvy League will not play
PrincetonIvy League will not play
YaleIvy League will not play

Value Add Basketball Projected Season Cancelled

 At the end of the Covid year, we did ironically decide to cancel even a board game season.

Obviously nothing to do with the pandemic, but we notes at the outset that creating projected rosters for college players was a far from scientific process. The first few Value Add Basketball Games seemed to yield reasonable results, but then top teams Gonzaga, Iowa and Houston lost and we just concluded the player cards were not very reflective of the jump players make from year to year.

While our 2020 tournament with player cards from the 2020 season yielded almost the perfect number if upsets, as did our all-time tournament with Bill Walton's UCLA defeating Michael Jordan's UNC, the projected cards didn't seem to work. While it was a small sample size, Memphis 70-47 win over Houston seemed particularly unrealistic. The Houston cards, particularly potential All-American Quintin Grimes, simply are not nearly as good as they will be based on this year's stats.

Well, I was at the Big East for the final games of the 2020 season so here is the final game I tried in the projected season. One thing I did learn in the short season is that playing with the dice (20-sided, 8-sided and two 6-sided) does play quicker than using the fast action cards I created for anyone who couldn't find the dice. The dice game averages 35 to 40 minutes a game, while a game using the cards was averaging more than an hour.





Wednesday, December 2, 2020

Fast Action Cards (in lieu of dice) for Value Add Basketball Game

To play Value Add Basketball Game using these Fast Action Cards instead of dice, click on each of the 24 PDFs below and print them out. The best next step is to print them front and back on card stock, making 12 sheets of paper, and then cut each sheet into 6 two-sided cards.

1. Shuffle the cards and place them in a stack. 

2. Flip over the first card, and use the first two lines, which replace the two 6-sided dice in the top line, and then replace the 8-sided dice on the second line to determine who gets the ball (e.g. the top left card shows a "PG (1)" so the point guard would get the ball. The second number on the same card replaces the 11-66 range, so an 11-36 appears on the defenders card (the "31" on that card is a possible steal), while a 41-66 refers to the card of the player with the ball. If nothing happens in the 11-66 range, then go to the next number on the same card for the 1-20 roll to determine if the player made a shot, missed, or was fouled.

After reading those three numbers on the same card, flip again. If a shot was made, then go through the next card with the same three numbers on the opposing teams cards. If player was fouled, then flip the next two cards to see if the 1-20 third number on the card is a made or missed free throw. If a shot is missed and the scoresheet possession is shaded to indicate you need to check for the rebound, then the new cards tells you the player trying to get the rebound and if the 1-6 number that follows his position gives him the rebound (e.g. if the top right card were the second card and flipped to determine the rebound, then the "Reb to Off PF if 4 in range" indicates the offensive power forward would get the rebound if his Off Reb were 1-4, 1-5 or higher. If his range was 1-1, 1-2 or 1-3, then the defensive Power Forward would get the rebound.




























Saturday, November 28, 2020

Value Add Basketball Game Season and 16-Team Tournament

For our Value Add Basketball Game Season with 2021 projected cards, we divided our teams into the Power 6 Conferences, and then created three additional conferences (East, South-Central and West) to let us play off all 68 teams within a Conference our Group in the conference. You can click on each Conference for the player cards for each team. We then plan a 16 team March Madness tournament with 10 teams qualifying automatically (tie-breaker is point margin with maximum of 10 points per game).

For game-by-game accounts, click here.

ACC Champ auto qualifies - so far Duke 1-0 +10, UVa 0-1 -10, FL St., Lville, Syracuse

Big 12 Champ auto qualifies - so far Baylor 1-0 +10, Oklahoma St. 0-1 -10, KS, OK, TX, TX Tech, WVU

Big East Champ auto qualifies - so far UConn 1-0 +7, Marquette 0-1 -7, Creighton, Prov, SH, Villanova

Big Ten Group A Champ auto qualifies - IL, MI, MN, Purdue, Rutgers

Big Ten Group B auto qualifies Champ - WI 1-0 +9, IA 0-1 -9, IN, Mich St., OSU

Pac-12 Champ auto qualifies - AZ St 1-0 +2, OR 0-1 -2, Stanford, UCLA

SEC Champ auto qualifies - Kentucky 1-0 +9, Auburn 0-1 -9 AL, FL, LSU, TN

East Non-Power 6 Champ winner of Group A vs. Group B Champ  auto qualifies

Group A: Merrimack, NC Central, Richmond, Siena, Vermont

Group B: VCU 1-0 +3, Richmond 0-1 -3.Colgate, Hofstra, St. Louis.

South-Central Non-Power 6 Champ  winner of Group A vs. Group B Champ  auto qualifies

Group A: Memphis, Murray St., Prairie View A&M, South Alabama, Wright St.

Group B: Akron, Furman, Houston, Liberty, Winthrop.

West Non-Power 6 Champ  winner of Group A vs. Group B Champ  auto qualifies

Group A: SD State 1-0 +7, Gonzaga 0-1 -7, Northern IA, Stephen F. Austin.

Group B: BYU, Eastern Washington, NM State, North Texas, UC Irvine

That will leave six at-large picks to complete a 16 team championship tournament. We may determine that by then letting some of the better teams who did not win their conference play some non-conference games.



Value Add Basketball Game Projected 2020-2021 Player Cards for 10 West, Non-Power 6 Teams

Value Add Basketball Game Projected 2020-2021 Player Cards for 10 West, Non-Power 6 Teams

The following are 10 teams we grouped into an West Non-Power 6 Division for the Value Add Basketball Game. To play a game, click on the image to open it in a separate screen, then print that sheet. The top line for each team are the suggested starting players left to right from 1 (point guard) to 5 (center), but you can rotate players in any order you want. Each player has an endurance figure of between 7 and 44 to indicate the maximum number of possessions he should play in the game. The game includes teams from the Power 6 conferences, as well as 30 other teams broken into an additional East, South-Central and West Division.

We set up three of these Divisions in our game (East, South-Central and West) and then divided the team into two pretty equal divisions to give the option of playing each team against the other four teams in their division and then have the two divisional champs play for an auto bid to our Sweet 16 tournament.

West-Group A

Gonzaga 2021

Northern Iowa 2021

South Dakota St. 2021

Stephen F. Austin 2021

UC Irvine 2021

 

West-Group B

BYU 2021

Eastern Washington 2021

New Mexico St. 2021

North Texas 2021

San Diego St. 2021














Value Add Basketball Game Projected 2020-2021 Player Cards for 10 South-Central, Non-Power 6 Teams

 Value Add Basketball Game Projected 2020-2021 Player Cards for 10 South-Central, Non-Power 6 Teams

The following are 10 teams we grouped into an South-Central Non-Power 6 Division for the Value Add Basketball Game. To play a game, click on the image to open it in a separate screen, then print that sheet. The top line for each team are the suggested starting players left to right from 1 (point guard) to 5 (center), but you can rotate players in any order you want. Each player has an endurance figure of between 7 and 44 to indicate the maximum number of possessions he should play in the game. The game includes teams from the Power 6 conferences, as well as 30 other teams broken into an additional East, South-Central and West Division.

We set up three of these Divisions in our game (East, South-Central and West) and then divided the team into two pretty equal divisions to give the option of playing each team against the other four teams in their division and then have the two divisional champs play for an auto bid to our Sweet 16 tournament.

South/Central-Group A

Memphis 2021

Murray St. 2021

Prairie View A&M 2021

South Alabama 2021

Wright St. 2021

 

South/Central-Group B

Akron 2021

Furman 2021

Houston 2021

Liberty 2021

Winthrop 2021