Sunday, April 15, 2018

15 players being dropped from Value Add Projections - Headed for NBA

As a follow-up to other articles, here are all the players being dropped from the Value Add Basketball database of 2019 projections, still leaving more than 5,400 players or open roster spots. Khyri Thomas has actually been added back into the database because he did not sign an agent.

Player out of ProjectionsHeightTeam losing playerValue
Mikal Bridges #256-foot-7Villanova11.06
Jalen Brunson #16-foot-2Villanova10.44
Moe Wagner #136-foot-11Michigan8.58
Landry Shamet #116-foot-4Wichita State8.17
Khyri Thomas #26-foot-3Creighton/could go NBA   8.03
Anfernee Simons6-foot-4High School7.80
Malik Newman #146-foot-3Kansas7.42
Marcus Derrickson #246-foot-7Georgetown6.86
Hamidou Diallo #36-foot-5Kentucky5.64
Mustapha Heron #56-foot-5Auburn5.38
Lonnie Walker #46-foot-5Miami FL5.09
Trevon Duval #16-foot-3Duke4.38
Justin Jackson #216-foot-7Maryland1.18
Drew Edwards #256-foot-4Providence0.77
Dikembe Dixson #106-foot-7Chicago State0.40
Fred Sims #146-foot-4Chicago State0.30

Saturday, April 7, 2018

Statis-Pro Standings, Pre-season ranking based on cards and Results (2018 Rosters, 2017 Player Cards)

Standings, Strength of Schedule, schedule for 1st 5 series to balance all teams SOS

  • Boston 5-1, SOS 4.2 (Sale 16 strikeout, 0 walks, 2 hit 3-0 shutout against scary Orioles line-up that will win a ton, then 8-3 SWEEP with Kimbrel saving as best closer). Next up Sea, NY, TB for SOS 4.9 through 24 games & get 3rd best NL team for next.
  • New York 4-2, SOS 8.0 (3-1 and 8-5 over Angels, Stanton added to line-up which produced 5 HRs in 1st two games and incredible pen). Next up KC, Bost, Det for SOS 4.9 through 24 games and get 2nd toughest NL team next.
  • Tampa 4-2, SOS 4.4 (Kiermaier 2nd homer of game broke tie in 10th for 3-2 win, then he hit a 3rd in a wild 12-11 11th inning win against Texas). Next up Balt, KC, Boston for 5.0 SOS through 24 games and get 5th toughest NL next.
  • Toronto 2-4, SOS 5.2 (10th inning 4-5 loss, then 5-6  to Seattle with only one homer). Next up Oak, Min, Hou for 5.9 SOS through 24 games and get 13th toughest NL next..
  • Baltimore 1-5, SOS 8.6 (loaded with power, scary lineup despite 0-3 loss to Sale). Next up TB, Oak, Cl for 6.1 SOS through 24 games and get 14th toughest NL next.

  • Royals 5-1, SOS 0.0 (6-1 over Tigers only sweep so far - not a great line-up but Merrifield and Moustakas both 2-run homers). Next up NY, TB, LA for 5.1 SOS through 24 games and get 7th best NL next.
  • White Sox 3-3, SOS 10.0 (1-2 loss to Kluber and incredible Indians pen, but huge bat from Orioles' Castillo gives great clean-up hitter for much-improved line-up, and have Pb 2-8 going in second game). Det, Sea and Tex next then get 4th best NL team next.
  • Indians 3-3, SOS 3.8 (best pitching ever including Kluber for 1st start, then lost to 2-8 pitcher for  White Sox). Min, Hou and Balt next for 5.7 SOS through 24 games and get NLs 12th best team next.
  • Minnesota 3-3, SOS 3.4 (12th inning 5-4 over Oakland but not a lot of power), and used 5 pitchers in 4-6 loss in finale). Cle, Tor, Oak next for 5.4 SOS through 24 games and get 9th best NL next.
  • Tigers 1-5, SOS 2.8 (first team swept with 1-6 loss to Royals, but both line-ups pretty weak, then lost again). Chi, LA, NY next for 5.6 SOS then get 11th best NL next.
  • Houston 5-1, SOS 8.0 (Verlander led a combined shutout, and McCann finally broke the scoreless dual with a 2-run homer his 3rd time up in the 9 hole. Marisnick and Springer added 2-run homers each off the pin to give the Astros the 6-0 win and a sweep.) Tex, Tor, Cle next for 6.3 SOS through 24 games and get weakest NL team next.
  • Seattle 4-2, SOS 4.8 (10th inning 5-4 over Toronto on Cano homer, then rallied from 1-4 down for 6-5 win with deep and strong bullpen for big wins on two teams right in the middle). Bost, Chi, Tex next for 5.4 SOS through 24 games and get NLs 10th best team next.
  • Oakland 3-3, SOS 6.2 (12th inning 4-5 loss to Minnesota but a TON of power and walks should improve them - Matt Olson helps win the second with the first of many homers of the greatest card since fellow A's player Mickey Klutz with a 15-32 home for 55 games). Tor, Balt, Min next for 5.4 SOS through 24 games and get NL's 8th toughest team next.
  • Texas 2-4, SOS 2.4 (10th inning 2-3 loss to Tampa, but Choo nice addition as cleanup with both RBIs and homer on 2 of 3 game. 2nd game 9th inning grandslam by Andrus gave them 11-9 lead, but they could not hold it and lost in 11 innings 12-11. Tough losses against a team that looks lower level.) Hou, Chi, Sea next or 5.0 SOS and get NLs 6th toughest team next.
  • LA Anaheim 3-9, SOS 8.2 (three new studs in the line-up including Ohtani debut hitting but will start 3rd game, but bullpen AWFUL. Changed Trout's CD from 1 to 4, but lower Richard's PB from 2-9 to 2-8 for only 6 starts. Unfair to start them against Yankees and Astros, so they will get 2 easy teams next, but someone had to finish a 2-game series to play the odd 15th team out - Astros - and couldn't resist Ohtani vs. Verlander). Next up Det (0.0) and KC (2.8) to lower SOS down to weakest 4.8 then get toughest NL team next.
Here is how good I believe each team is on paper based on the gain or loss of big time players (or a part-time player they get full-time this year in the game) as an adjustment to last year's record. In other words, the Indians look like the best team and get a 10.0, and the Tigers look like the worst team and get a 0.0. The Red Sox and Astros seem tied for second at a 8.6, then the Angels and Yankees at 8.0 and 7.8 virtually tied for 4th best in the AL.

Baltimore Orioles4.2
Boston Red Sox8.6
Chicago White Sox3.8
Cleveland Indians10.0
Detroit Tigers0.0
Houston Astros8.6
Kansas City Royals2.8
Los Angeles Angels8.0
Minnesota Twins6.2
New York Yankees7.8
Oakland Athletics3.4
Seattle Mariners5.2
Tampa Bay Rays2.4
Texas Rangers4.4
Toronto Blue Jays4.8

For each team I put their record based on a 5-run win counting as a 3-0 sweep, and other wins as a 2-1 sweep. The Strength of Schedule (SOS) is based on how good their average opponents cards are based on last year's records adjusted for excellent players gained or lost.

Team (Wins in Q, losses at bottomBalBosChiClDetHouKCLAMinNYYOakSeaTBTexTorStatis-Pro 2018 Wins
Baltimore Oriolesx11
Boston Red Sox2x2
Chicago White Soxx11
Cleveland Indians2x2
Detroit Tigersx00
Houston Astrosx33
Kansas City Royals3x3
Los Angeles Angelsx22
Minnesota Twinsx22
New York Yankees4x4
Oakland Athletics1x1
Seattle Marinersx22
Tampa Bay Raysx22
Texas Rangers1x1
Toronto Blue Jays1x1
Statis Pro Loses212130071221122x

Minnesota 5, Oakland 4 (12 innings): After Joe Mauer's third hit of the day, Mitch Garver uses his OBR B to go first to third, and then tag up on Eddie Rosario's second sac fly of the game. HRs, Okland Davis, Minn Buxton and Morrison. W- Rogers, L Petit.

Seattle 5, Toronto 4 (10 innings)

Tampa 3, Texas 2 (10 innings)

Indians 2, White Sox 1 - White Sox lineup improved but Cleveland may have the best pitching staff in Statis Pro history, particularly when Kluber starts.

Royals 6, Tigers 1 - Counts as sweep.

League Rules
Each game counts as a 3-game series. Winning team gets a 2-1 series win unless they win by at least 5 runs without extra innings, in which case they get a 3-0 sweep. Mathematically, it is just as hard to get a 5-run win as a sweep and run differential is a truer test in the short season.

Using 2017 Statis-Pro cards but current rosters. As long as someone is on the roster they can be used in a better role (eg a player with a better card from last year can play ahead of the player actually starting this year, or relievers who have better cards can be the closer. Also, relievers can be used to protect against a sweep (closer to hold a 5-run lead or keep a 4-run deficit from becoming a 5-run deficit.

Option to Play Statis-Pro With Only This Chart, Dice and Playing Cards from eBay

I recently joined those around the country longing to go back to my old Statis-Pro baseball games. I was happy to find it was very easy to order player cards from many sources (I liked the onebig32Dave on eBay for only $10 for a pdf email to cut out yourself or a little more for really nice perforated cards).

What is a bit more expensive and harder to find is the game set up and the actual fast action cards used. To give you another option, you can play the game if you simply order the player cards from big32Dave or someone else, pull up these charts, and can pick up the following five dice from a hobby store or on-line; 1) two traonlinel 6-sided dice, a 20-sided dice, and two 8-sided dice of different colors.

The two traditional dice (blue in this photo) are rolled to give the PB rating on the pitcher's card (a 2-8 roll would be on the blue die in the photo would be on Dallas Keuchel's card if he were pitching, while 9 or higher would be on Ryan Zimmerman's card if he were batting.

The 8-side dice need to be different colors because one needs to be the "10s" digit and the other the "1s" digit. In the picture, the yellow is 10s and the white is 1s, so this roll is a 45 which would be a passed ball on Keuchel's card.

The 20-sided die (red in this case) often is not needed if there are already two outs OR the bases are empty. In those cases, only a roll of 19 or 20 requires a reference to the second set of numbers on these charts, but if there are men on base with less than two outs then the red die is used in Column A or B on the charts.

The game plays quickly using this dice alternative because you can roll all five dice at once following the charts. Call 404.606.3163 or email if you have any questions.

There are references to Z plays, and if you choose to use them, here is the chart. I only have player injuries last the rest of the game.

Friday, April 6, 2018

Baseball Breakdown of Double Play Grounders and Would-be Sac Flies Per Out

Because I wanted to revisit Statis-Pro baseball and distribute outs and errors with a 20-sided die rather than their playing cards, I broke down the 185,000 plus times a batter stepped up to the plate last year and provided the numbers under the "All PA" column below.

The error number is not a true percentage, because in fact multiple outs can be recorded on a given playmaking fielding averages appear even higher than they are per play, but let's skip that for now.

All PAOpportunityIn play outper 20-sided die1B or 2B
GB 1 out4029831818318177.4
Infield error2070207020700.5
Fly Ball out3746225632263826.1
OF or C error7507507500.2

The most important thing I needed to break out was the chance of a double play grounder and of a sacrifice fly in order to give the proper chances of each on my 20-sided die - each representing a 5% chance of something happening through a subsequent role of the die if the first one came up "20" could give a 0.25% chance on two rolls.

At first tally, there were on 3,810 double-play grounders. However, there is only a man on first and less than two outs 31% of the time so we can reverse engineer to estimate there were 12,290 balls hit like a double-play grounder - but 69% of the time they just turned into groundouts because there was no force for a double play.

There were only 1,170 sacrifice flies, but there is a man on third with less than two outs only 9 percent of the time, so likewise we can reverse engineer that an estimated 13,000 balls were hit deep enough to be sacrifice flies but 91% of the time no one was on 3rd base to run home and give credit. Most do not realize that a batter does not get a sacrifice fly credit if a runner goes from 2nd to 3rd base on his fly ball.

Once you take away all the hits, strikeouts, walks and decisions to either bunt or intentionally walk a batter, we are left with 86,309 times that a batter hit a ball that resulted in an out or someone reaching on an error. When you break that down to a 20-sided die, we find 3 of the sides should equal a double play grounder and another 3 equal a sac fly. You also have 7 other clean groundouts, 6 other clean foul balls, and then some fractions that we break down into a second roll of the die if a 20 comes up the first time.

DieOut on card (DP if force, if not runners hold and out at 1st)
2DP unless batter OBR A
3DP unless batter OBR A-B
4DP unless batter OBR A-C
5DP unless batter OBR A-D
6Ground Out Runner A Advance
7Ground Out Runner A-B Advance
8Ground Out Runner A-C Advance
9Ground Out Runner A-D Advance
10Ground Out Runner Advance
11Fly Out
12Fly Out
13Fly Out
14Fly Out, runner OBR A on 2nd or 3rd Advance
15Fly Out, runner OBR A-B on 2nd or 3rd Advance
16Fly Out, runner OBR A-C on 2nd or 3rd Advance
17Fly Out, runner OBR A-D on 2nd or 3rd Advance
18Fly Out, runner on 2nd or 3rd Advance
19-20Roll Again Below - possible defensive play
2nd roll below
2 dice new rollBased on two 6-sided dice out hit to: 2 or 3 = 1b, 4 = P, 5 = cf, 6 = 3b, 7 or 12 = SS, 8 = 2b, 9 = pulled to outfielder, 10 = C, 11 = opposite field outfielder.
1out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 1 -10
2E1-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE OBRA or B lead runner beats attempted throw, all safe - otherwise lead runner out
3out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 2-10
4E2-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE OBRA lead runner beats attempted throw - otherwise lead runner out
5out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 3-10
6E3-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE Fielder throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance
7out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 4-10
8E4-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE Fielder throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance
9out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 5-10
10E5-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE CD2-4 throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance
11out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 6-10
12E6-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE CD2-4 throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance
13out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 7-10
14E7-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE CD3-4 throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance
15out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 8-10
16E8-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE CD3-4 throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance
17out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 9-10 - OPTIONAL NEXT PLAY IS Z PLAY
18E9-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE CD4 throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance - OPTIONAL NEXT PLAY IS Z PLAY
19out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 10 - OPTIONAL NEXT PLAY IS Z PLAY
20E10 1-base error, OTHERWISE CD4 throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance - OPTIONAL NEXT PLAY IS Z PLAY

On references to OBR runners, if lead runner is too fast to get defense throws out batter.

Wednesday, April 4, 2018

Value Add Projects for All 2019 Players - Final Four of Auburn, Duke, Villanova, UNC

This link to projected Value Add Rankings for close to 5,000 players provides you with a column A to make notes on any player that should be removed, changed to another team, or added in one of the "Roster Spot Open" spots for teams with fewer than 13 players in the system.

Tracking which team a given player is on is a monumental task (an Atlanta sports host tried to convince a caller that I really do work 60+ hour work weeks and just do this for fun), and I WELCOME notes correcting my mistakes - or even subjective notes on players that should be rated higher by played injures, or do things that do not show up in the stats like on-ball defense or setting picks. Just type anything you want into Column A by something you believe or know is off on a given line.

Here is a rundown of how we project the next season's Value Add rating of different sets of players.

Group 1: Freshmen. The rankings for these players is determined matching where 247Sports ranks a freshman and how freshman who ranked that high in past rankings performed.

Group 2: Returning Sophomores, Juniors and Seniors. Last year I studied the 61,000+ Value Add rankings from the 2001-02 to 2016-17 who stayed at the same school four years, and calculated the following average improvement for five groups based on how valuable they were their freshman season:

Freshman Value Add RangeFreshmanSophomoreJuniorSenior
up to 1.000.591.181.571.90
up to 2.001.312.242.783.31
up to
3.01 or higher3.994.054.555.23
4 year players, same school0.981.662.092.48

The average improvement works out to the following:
  • A freshman with a rating of 1.01 or higher projects to improve by 1.00 his sophomore year, while others project to improve by 0.7.
  • A sophomore with a rating of 1.01 or higher projects to improve 0.8 his junior year, while others improve 0.4. 
  • A junior with a rating of 1.01 or higher projects to improve 06 his senior year, while others improve 0.3.
Further, in the system I check players against their projected NBA status and where they were originally ranked in high school - this has not been done to the 2019 projections yet, as it takes a while, but adjustments may be made based on the following:
  • A player ranked as one of the top 50 or so NBA prospects in their place have a minimum Value Add ranking based on exactly where they rank that will take the place of a lower projected Value Add using the system above.
  • A player who was highly rated as a recruit who has a bad year (often the result of injury or a lack of playing time) gets at least a rating equal to one point below the average number of stars he received as a recruit (e.g. a 5-star recruit who has a bad first year, still gets at least a 4.0 Value Add based on a history of such players improvement much more dramatically than others).
Group 3: JUCO Transfers. While 247 is my basis for freshmen, Brad Winton's list between 2011 to 2015 gave me averages of how his ranked JUCOs typically perform when they move to a four-year school. In short, as we saw with Jae Crowder and others, Junior College players make their big improvements before stepping on the court of a 4-year college, usually as a junior. They can instantly improve a team because their game is so much more developed than freshman recruits. As soon as Delon Wright and Gary Payton stepped on the court they made Utah and Oregon State, respectively, 10 points better than a replacement player.

Group 4: NBA Prospects. This pre-March Madness post gave each college player's chance for success in the NBA, with 10.0 being the highest. The following are three considerations for NBA prospects.

a. If a prospect Signs with an Agent or Makes clear they are leaving for the pros, then they are not listed with a 2019 Projection.

b. If a prospect is considering going to the NBA or even puts their name in the draft but does not sign with an agent then they are still listed with a slash after the team name indicating they could leave for the NBA.

c. The NBA rating is also used to calculate a minimum Value Add projection for the next season that is higher than the projection based on their previous season above. This might be needed because a player simply underperformed in the previous season, but it is also often the case that he played hurt or was on a bench at a program like Duke or Kentucky that had other NBA prospects in front of him, so that when a starting spot clears for them the next season they will likely be much higher. In that case, we calculate what their Value Add projection would be if they had played up to their potential. For example, Maryland's Bruno Fernando had a strong freshman year with a 4.76 Value Add so would have projected to improve a bit, but his NBA rating would indicate his Value Add should be almost twice as high as 9.00+, and we take 70% of that NBA projection to raise him to 6.02 for next season if he is still at Maryland. If you see "Proj raised due to NBA potential" in the notes field, it means the player's projection was raised due to NBA potential beyond what his previous season would actually project. Here is the list of all NBA prospects who had their Value Add Projection raised for 2019 beyond what they actually produced the previous year.

NBA Prospect Under performingHeightClassSchoolAdjusted VA
Bruno Fernando #236-foot-10SoMaryland6.202
Hamidou Diallo #36-foot-5FrKentucky/could go NBA5.635
Jericho Sims #206-foot-9SoTexas5.607
Bruce Brown #116-foot-5SoMiami FL/could go NBA5.39
Marques Bolden #206-foot-11JrDuke5.236
Jaylen Hands #46-foot-3FrUCLA/could go NBA5.194
Jarred Vanderbilt #26-foot-9FrKentucky/could go NBA5.173
John Petty #236-foot-5FrAlabama/could go NBA4.956
Markis McDuffie #326-foot-8SrWichita St.4.886
Kavell Bigby-Williams 356-foot-11SrOregon4.606
Donovan Mitchell #26-foot-8JrAvailable4.354
Bennie Boatwright #256-foot-10SrUSC4.2
Jeremy Hemsley #426-foot-3SrSan Diego St.4.158
Chase Jeter 26-foot-10JrArizona4.13
Yankuba Sima #356-foot-11SrOklahoma St.4.067
Corey Sanders #36-foot-2SrRutgers4.06
Tacko Fall #247-foot-6SrUCF4.053
Shaqquan Aaron #06-foot-7SrUSC4.046
Esa Ahmad #236-foot-8SrWest Virginia4.032
Haanif Cheatham #256-foot-5SrFlorida Gulf Coast3.99
Carlton Bragg 156-foot-10JrNew Mexico3.983
Jeremy Miller #116-foot-10SrNortheastern3.885
Jalen Poyser 246-foot-4SoSt. Bonaventure3.878
Brandon Randolph #56-foot-6SoArizona3.85
Kassoum Yakwe #146-foot-7SrSt. John's3.85
Jeremiah Tilmon #236-foot-10SoMissouri3.822
MJ Walker #236-foot-6SoFlorida St.3.808
DJ Harvey #36-foot-6SoNotre Dame3.801
Chris Smith #56-foot-9SoUCLA3.801
Keith Williams #26-foot-5SoCincinnati3.794
Daejon Davis #16-foot-3SoStanford3.78
Paul Scruggs #16-foot-3SoXavier3.78
Devontae Shuler #06-foot-2SoMississippi3.766
Kostas Antetokounmpo #136-foot-10FrDayton/could go NBA3.766
Emmanuel Akot #246-foot-7SoArizona3.766
Chaundee Brown #236-foot-5SoWake Forest3.759
Victor Bailey #106-foot-4SoOregon3.752
Marcus Carr #56-foot-1SoAvailable3.745
Makai Ashton-Langford #16-foot-3SoProvidence3.745
Alex O'Connell #156-foot-6SoDuke3.71
Jacob Larsen #146-foot-11SoGonzaga3.703
Abu Kigab #246-foot-6SoOregon3.696
Charles O'Bannon #136-foot-6SoUSC3.696
Isaiah Washington #116-foot-1SoMinnesota3.689
Jermaine Samuels #236-foot-6SoVillanova3.682
Malik Williams #56-foot-11SoLouisville3.675

Group 5: Placeholders to Fill Rosters. The one other item I added this year is a line for the available spots on each team's roster. If a team has nine players in the database, then they have four lines on which the "player name" is "Roster Spot Open." This year I do assign a value based on what the team can typically expect. A solid team like Marquette will average about 1.30 in Value Add filling their roster, while Kentucky averages 2.51 and can be much higher if they are waiting to decide which 5-star to take.

If you want the much longer explanation of each group presented last June, click here and link to the explanations of these and others.

The link indicates that if every team keep any more potential pro players from leaving, then Villanova projects as the best team at 69.56, Kentucky is second at 63.50, and a Final Four would round out with Duke at 56.38 and Auburn at 53.75. However, that would entail Villanova keeping the dominant trio from the National title game in Mikal Bridges (as likely lottery pick), National Player of the Year Jalen Brunson, and Tournament MVP Donte DiVincenzo. Kentucky has six current potential players who could go pro to cut them down to seven returning.

If all these players left for the pros, and every other team also lost all potential pro prospects, then Auburn would project as the No. 1 team at 50.17 (they only have one player who might leave), and Duke would be just behind them at 49.97 (only two players and not the keys to the team), with Villanova still holding onto third place even without that trio, but North Carolina replacing Kentucky to round out a projected Final Four.

Here is the whole list, but I caution that the offseason projections really do not work well on the teams outside the Top 100.

ROUGH ProjectionsConfIf no more NBA departuresRankPoss NBARating if everyone leaves for NBAEveryone leaves for NBA
North CarolinaACC48.77548.774
Mississippi St.SEC45.4211139.9910
Miami FLACC44.7513336.2122
North Carolina St.ACC42.671642.678
Ohio St.B1041.9517133.8541
Virginia TechACC41.5118139.5411
Michigan St.B1041.4419137.217
Kansas St.B1238.5225133.9838
Arizona St.P1238.022638.0216
Texas A&MSEC37.927230.1157
Florida St.ACC36.883036.8820
Boston CollegeACC36.431128.8765
Iowa St.B1235.9232133.8539
St. John'sBE35.0136129.1761
Fresno St.MWC34.883834.8829
Texas TechB1233.8847126.0197
South Dakota St.Sum33.854833.8540
Notre DameACC33.74933.742
West VirginiaB1232.745532.7446
Loyola ChicagoMVC32.725632.7247
Wake ForestACC32.226032.2251
Penn St.B1031.3161126.5682
San Diego St.MWC31.286231.2853
Oregon St.P1229.726829.7259
UNC GreensboroSC29.047129.0463
San DiegoWCC28.987328.9864
South DakotaSum28.587528.5867
Georgia TechACC28.4476123.55134
Georgia St.SB28.0477125.25111
Rhode IslandA1027.987927.9869
Oklahoma St.B1227.358527.3577
Northern KentuckyHorz27.038627.0378
New MexicoMWC27.028727.0279
Murray St.OVC26.878826.8780
UC DavisBW26.359326.3586
Louisiana LafayetteSB26.359426.3587
Northern IowaMVC26.169826.1692
Ball St.MAC26.139926.1393
Southern IllinoisMVC26.0210226.0296
North TexasCUSA25.9910325.9998
Northern ColoradoBSky25.9710425.9799
South CarolinaSEC25.7110725.71102
Georgia SouthernSB25.6210925.62104
Saint Mary'sWCC25.4311025.43106
Fort WayneSum25.4211125.42107
Middle TennesseeCUSA25.3611225.36108
New Mexico St.WAC25.2711425.27110
Jacksonville St.OVC24.8611824.86115
Wichita St.Amer24.85119119.12193
Saint Joseph'sA1024.712224.7117
Utah St.MWC24.6212424.62119
Old DominionCUSA24.3912624.39121
UC IrvineBW24.1512924.15125
Weber St.BSky23.9713123.97127
Illinois St.MVC23.9113223.91128
St. BonaventureA1023.6113523.61132
Wright St.Horz23.5613623.56133
Saint LouisA1023.3613823.36136
Utah ValleyWAC23.3114023.31138
Southern MissCUSA23.1814123.18139
Idaho St.BSky23.0914223.09140
Eastern MichiganMAC23.08143124.32123
St. Francis PANEC22.7114622.71143
Austin PeayOVC22.7114722.71144
College of CharlestonCAA22.4814922.48146
Seton HallBE22.4815022.48147
Stephen F. AustinSlnd22.41152123.83129
William & MaryCAA22.3715322.37149
Eastern WashingtonBSky22.3415422.34150
Central MichiganMAC22.0915822.09155
Indiana St.MVC22.0116022.01157
Cal St. FullertonBW21.9716121.97158
Southeast Missouri St.OVC21.6716221.67159
Illinois ChicagoHorz21.4716421.47161
San FranciscoWCC21.2216521.22162
James MadisonCAA20.8317020.83167
Northern IllinoisMAC20.817120.8168
Missouri St.MVC20.7117220.71169
Grand CanyonWAC20.6217320.62170
Loyola MarymountWCC20.6117420.61171
Kent St.MAC20.0418020.04178
UT ArlingtonSB19.818219.8181
Charleston SouthernBSth19.78183120.36175
La SalleA1019.6118519.61183
North FloridaASun19.518619.5184
Louisiana TechCUSA19.4618719.46185
East Tennessee St.SC19.4518819.45186
UNC AshevilleBSth19.4518919.45187
Western KentuckyCUSA19.3519019.35188
Western MichiganMAC19.319119.3189
South AlabamaSB19.2219219.22190
George MasonA1019.1319419.13192
UNC WilmingtonCAA19.0919519.09194
Colorado St.MWC19.0919619.09195
Louisiana MonroeSB18.5220118.52201
Texas SouthernSWAC18.4820218.48202
Coastal CarolinaSB18.3620318.36203
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd18.220418.2204
Montana St.BSky17.8520917.85209
Washington St.P1217.84210113.71263
Miami OHMAC17.7621117.76210
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC17.121717.1216
North DakotaBSky17.0921817.09217
Bowling GreenMAC17.0621917.06218
Portland St.BSky16.9122116.91220
Nebraska OmahaSum16.8822316.88222
Saint Peter'sMAAC16.8722416.87223
UC Santa BarbaraBW16.6622516.66224
Boston UniversityPat16.4522616.45225
Eastern KentuckyOVC16.3922916.39228
Robert MorrisNEC16.2923016.29229
Boise St.MWC16.2623216.26231
LIU BrooklynNEC16.2423316.24232
Texas St.SB16.1123416.11233
Tennessee St.OVC16.0623616.06235
Nicholls St.Slnd15.9623715.96236
Appalachian St.SB15.9523815.95237
Sam Houston St.Slnd15.8423915.84238
Air ForceMWC15.5524115.55240
Stony BrookAE15.2424415.24243
Oral RobertsSum15.2424515.24244
High PointBSth15.0824815.08247
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC14.9125014.91249
Long Beach St.BW14.925114.9250
George WashingtonA1014.8725214.87251
North Dakota St.Sum14.0525814.05257
Mount St. Mary'sNEC13.6826413.68264
New OrleansSlnd13.6726513.67265
Eastern IllinoisOVC13.4626813.46267
Florida Gulf CoastASun13.2227113.22270
Santa ClaraWCC13.1427213.14271
Central ArkansasSlnd13.0127313.01272
Abilene ChristianSlnd12.8727412.87274
Holy CrossPat12.7727612.77276
Gardner WebbBSth12.727712.7277
St. Francis NYNEC12.6927812.69278
Western CarolinaSC12.6227912.62279
The CitadelSC12.61280112.9273
Tennessee MartinOVC12.5228112.52280
Southern UtahBSky12.4428212.44281
Alabama St.SWAC12.4228312.42282
Sacramento St.BSky12.3328412.33283
Morehead St.OVC12.3228612.32285
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd12.1628812.16287
Little RockSB12.0828912.08288
Prairie View A&MSWAC12.0629012.06289
Bethune CookmanMEAC11.8529211.85291
Tennessee TechOVC11.8329311.83292
Central ConnecticutNEC11.8129411.81293
Green BayHorz11.7929611.79295
North Carolina CentralMEAC11.7829711.78296
UMass LowellAE11.5529911.55299
South FloridaAmer11.5130011.51300
McNeese St.Slnd11.18302111.67298
Sacred HeartNEC11.1530311.15302
North Carolina A&TMEAC11.0730611.07305
Loyola MDPat10.8630710.86307
Arkansas St.SB10.7430810.74308
New HampshireAE10.6931010.69310
Youngstown St.Horz10.6231110.62311
Norfolk St.MEAC10.5931210.59312
Western IllinoisSum10.4531410.45314
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC10.4331510.43315
Cal PolyBW10.2631810.26318
Northwestern St.Slnd9.893209.89320
East CarolinaAmer9.873219.87321
Northern ArizonaBSky9.863229.86322
Cal St. NorthridgeBW9.63239.6324
UC RiversideBW9.523249.52325
Savannah St.MEAC9.4932519.81323
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC9.443269.44326
Cleveland St.Horz9.273279.27327
Houston BaptistSlnd9.013289.01328
Florida A&MMEAC9.013299.01329
Florida AtlanticCUSA9.013309.01330
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC8.963318.96331
Delaware St.MEAC8.73328.7332
Kennesaw St.ASun8.533348.53334
Grambling St.SWAC7.933367.93336
South Carolina St.MEAC7.663377.66337
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC7.53387.5338
Morgan St.MEAC7.393397.39339
Incarnate WordSlnd7.363407.36340
San Jose St.MWC7.263417.26341
Jackson St.SWAC7.183437.18343
USC UpstateASun7.053447.05344
Chicago St.WAC6.613466.61346
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC6.413476.41347
Alcorn St.SWAC5.523485.52348
Coppin St.MEAC5.163505.16350
Alabama A&MSWAC4.83514.8351

Tuesday, April 3, 2018

Final Add: Bridges Misses MVP by 0.01 after Nova's Dominant Title Game

Villanova's dominant national championship win was led by Mikal Bridges, who increased his Value Add Basketball ranking by 0.21 during the championship win to 10.46 above a replacement player - leaving him one-hundredth of a point per game behind West Virginia's Jevon Carter as the most valuable player in the country according to

Meanwhile, Villanova Jalen Brunson was solid but in foul trouble during the title game and dropped just slightly from 9.87 to 9.84, still fifth best in the country. National Player of the Year voters selected Brunson as the best player in America - and it is doubtful the team-oriented Villanova would mind an argument about whether Brunson or Bridges was the best player in America of more than 4,000 players.

While Brunson is the best of the three offensively, he takes away only -0.77 points per 100 trips from opponents, while Bridges is coveted by the NBA for his -2.67 defense and Carter barely held on as the Most Valuable Player in the country through an even better -3.12 defense.

However, as great as Bridges defense is, he said during the post-game interview that he sometimes cannot stop teammate Donte DiVincenzo when they practice. DiVincenzo was voted the tournaments most outstanding player in a performance capped by an all-time finals record with 31 points off the bench against Michigan. That final performance moved him from 97th to 70th in the country despite coming off the bench as the Big East's best 6th man.

For Michigan, Moritz Wagner started hot in the championship but tired and dropped slightly from 29th to 31st in the final rating (of more than 4,000 players). His teammate Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman was fantastic driving paste defenders to move up 12 spots to a final rating as the 57th best player in the country.

While that made for a great duo, no other Michigan player was in the top 250, and as predicted in our projections, they were no match for Villanova, who added the inside dominance of Omari Spellman (77th) and versatile (164th) to give Villanova five players in the top 4% of all players. The only other teams with even four players in the top 4% are Duke, Purdue, and Kansas - so with by far the top duo in the country (no other team had two even in the top 20) and the best top five, it's no wonder ranks Villanova as the second best championship team of this century behind only the 2008 Kansas team. In fact, if Memphis had hit any free throws down the stretch in 2008 to deny Kansas the title, Villanova would rate as the best champion of the 21st century.

Here are the new rankings for the Villanova and Michigan players after the championship, with Jevon Carter of West Virginia, left on the list to show how close the final was.

1Jevon Carter #2West Virginia10.47
2Mikal Bridges #25Villanova10.46
5Jalen Brunson #1Villanova9.84
31Moritz Wagner #13Michigan7.98
57Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman #12Michigan7.26
70Donte DiVincenzo #10Villanova7.04
77Omari Spellman #14Villanova7.01
164Eric Paschall #4Villanova5.99
275Duncan Robinson #22Michigan5.17
355Charles Matthews #1Michigan4.63
430Zavier Simpson #3Michigan4.18
440Phil Booth #5Villanova4.14
659Jon Teske #15Michigan3.30
919Jordan Poole #2Michigan2.43
1028Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree #21Villanova2.17
1053Collin Gillespie #2Villanova2.10
1236Isaiah Livers #4Michigan1.72
1882Ibi Watson #23Michigan0.76
2089Eli Brooks #55Michigan0.55
2203Austin Davis #51Michigan0.46
2327Jaaron Simmons #5Michigan0.37
2563Jermaine Samuels #23Villanova0.24
9999Tim Delaney #34Villanova0.00

Monday, April 2, 2018

SEC, ACC & Big 12 Get Even Stronger with JUCO Commitments to Mississippi, TCU and NC State

To see game-changers for next basketball season, go to Brad Winton's JUCO Report frequently. Based on his scouting, we projected Jeremy Harris would bring a Value Add of 6.0 to Buffalo, and he was even better at 6.19 to rank in the top 4% of all Division 1 players and take Buffalo to the NCAA tournament.

This year the following teams are already getting a boost of at least a point from JUCO transfers who will step on the court ready to play.

SchoolJUCO Boost 2019
Ole Miss6.86
NC State5
Western Kentucky4.01
Mississippi State2.11
Oregon State1.43
Missouri State1.29
Boise State1.19
Texas Tech1.11
Wichita State1

Here is Brad's list right now with our Value Add Projections.

1Wendell Mitchell6.56'4Trinity Valley CCSG
2Jordan Brangers66'3South PlainsSG
3Yuat AlokTCU5.56'10Chipola PF
4Derek FunderburkeNC State56'10Northwest Florida StateF
5Brian HalumsOle Miss4.56'5Itawamba CCG/F
6Mohamed Thiam4.016'8MarshalltownPF
7Shaq CarterRutgers3.826'9Eastern Florida StatePF
8Trevelin QueenWestern Kentucky3.756'6New Mexico MilitarySG
9Charles Jones JrUtah3.596'3College of Southern IdahoSG
10Ivan Aurrecoechea3.476'8Indian HillsPF/C
11Devante Bandoo3.346'3HutchinsonSG
12Andres Feliz3.196'2Northwest Florida StatePG
13Kur KuathOklahoma3.066'9Salt Lake CCPF
14Roderick Williams2.946'7East LA CollegeG/F
15Isaiah Tisdale 2.826'2Vincennes UniversityCG
16Antun Maricevic2.716'10Casper CollegePF/C
17Marlon Taylor2.556'6Panola CollegeWing
18JJ Rhymes2.456'5HutchinsonWing
19Zach NaylorOle Miss2.366'6Weatherford CollegeG/F
20Tremell Murphy2.26'5Florida SouthwesternWing
21Jethro Tshisumpa MbiyaMississippi State2.116'10San Jacinto CollegeC
22Nick Marshall2.026'11Motlow StateC
23Shane Gatling1.956'4Indian HillsSG
24Ra'Shawn Langston1.876'3Connors StateSG
25Darius AllenBaylor1.746'4Palm Beach StateSG
26Danya Kingsby1.576'2College of Southern IdahoCG
27Jhery MatosDayton1.516'5Monroe CollegeWing
28Kylor KelleyOregon State1.437'0Lane CCC
29Jermaine Haley1.366'7Odessa G/F
30Willesley Butler1.336'8Pensacola StateF/C
31Kabir MohammedMissouri State1.296'5San Jacinto CollegeG/F
32Ricky Torres1.266'3Missouri West PlainsCG
33Corey DouglasVCU1.226'9Tallahassee CCPF
34Pat DembleyBoise State1.196'1Iowa Western CG
35Tray Boyd III1.156'4Northwest Florida StateSG
36Andres Ibarguen1.146'7Trinity Valley CCPF
37Deshawn CorprewTexas Tech1.116'4South PlainsSG
38Rashawn Fredericks1.076'6Motlow StateWing
39Terrell Brown1.066'3City College of San FranciscoSG
40Brian Warren1.045'11Tyler JCPG
41Bushmen Ebet16'3Salt Lake CCSG
42Jaime EcheniqueWichita State16'11Trinity Valley CCC
43Ke'Sean Davis0.976'7Seward CountyG/F
44Quentin JacksonFlorida Gulf Coast0.956'3Tallahassee CCCG
45Ted McCree0.936'4Gillette CollegeSG
46Eli Abaev0.916'8Eastern Florida StatePF
47Canberk Kus0.896'6College of Central FloridaWing
48Mark Gordon0.866'5Daytona StateSG
49Isaiah Crawley0.836'7Columbia StatePF
50Isaiah MauriceNew Mexico0.816'10South PlainsPF
51Darnell BulterFlorida Atlantic0.796'4Seminole StateSG
52Tyler Cheese0.776'3Florida SouthwesternCG
53Javien WilliamsLouisiana Monroe0.746'4Tallahassee CCG/F
54Vinnie ShahidNorth Dakota State0.725'11Western Nebraska PG
55Ahmed AliKent State0.725'10Eastern Florida StatePG
56Austin Trice0.716'7Wabash Valley CollegePF
57Darnell Cowart0.76'8Cowley CountyPF
58Channel Banks0.686'4Sheridan CG
59Kaelin JacksonUMBC0.646'2Temple CollegePG
60CJ Williamson 0.626'6Chipola Wing
61Antonio Williams0.66'2Indian HillsG
62Shamar BaileyPortland State0.566'7Hill CollegeG/F
63Cedric Jackson0.536'4Indian River StateSG
64Jaalam HillCleveland State0.56'7Southwestern Illinois CollegeF
65Will Robinson0.466'5Gulf Coast StateWing
66D'Mauria Jones0.436'4Antelope Valley CollegeWing
67Jeremy Hayes0.396'3Howard CollegeCG
68Xavier Trent0.346'5ClarendonG
69Travis "TJ" Washington0.316'1CoffeyvillePG
70Tyshawn Davis0.286'7Coastal Alabama - MonroevilleF
71Matthew HortonWestern Kentucky0.266'11Shelton StateC
72Victor Curry0.226'7Cleveland StatePF
73Oswald Parker0.26'5BrowardWing
74Robert McCoy0.26'7San Diego CityWing
75Darius WilliamsCal State Bakersfield0.26'8Paris JCPF
76Keandre Cook0.26'5OdessaWing
77Darron Johnson0.26'2Western Oklahoma StateSG
78Edwin Jeudy0.26'7Gillette CollegeF
79Melkisedek MoreauxArkansas Little Rock0.26'7Northeast CCF
80Jamel AllenUMKC0.26'6Indian HillsWing
81Jaiveon Eaves0.26'3John A LoganSG
82Roydell Brown0.26'5Southwest MississippiWing
83Carlos Dotson0.26'7College of Central FloridaPF
84Gilbert Thomas0.26'7Angelina CCPF
85Myron Gordon0.26'3Harcum CollegeSG
86TJ Howard0.26'2ChipolaPG
87Jay'Quan McCloudGreen Bay0.26'2Highland CCSG
88D-Juan Taylor Hodge0.26'4Santa Fe CollegeWing
89Trevais Spencer0.26'4Holmes CCSG
90Reece Brooks0.25'10ClarendonPG
91Randy Miller0.26'2Moberly Area CollegeSG
92Josh Jefferson0.26'2Lake Land CollegeCG
93Jahlil NailsIdaho0.26'5Navarro Wing
94Sayveon McEwen0.25'11Shawnee CCPG
95Irshaad Hunte0.26'7Central WyomingPF
96Kelvin Robinson0.26'4Northwest Florida StateCG
97Marcell Haskett0.26'0New MexicoPG
98Alston Davis0.26'6Cape Fear CCWing
99Derek St HilaireFlorida Atlantic0.26'1Gordon StateCG
100Devin HutchinsonRadford0.26'5Brunswick CCSG