Saturday, May 27, 2023

Statis-Pro Much Improved and Strong New Pitcher Cards; and 9 Oakland Cards Downgraded

The following are pitchers who have either performed much better or much worse than their card. You can add a PB to any pitcher who has improved a lot, or subtract a PB for anyone who has so far pitched way below their projections. We also add as big pickups anyone who did not have a card but has at least a PB 2-7, or a PB 4-7 in a hitters park so they get to take a home run off a batters park.

While the Pirates have the most improved Statis-Pro pitcher cards on this list with five improved and only one below expectations - the bigger not on this one is that 9 Oakland A's pitchers have pitched much worse than their projected cards and none have exceeded expections. All batters and pitchers to have played this year with notes by which ones were adjusted are listed by team in this google sheet.

A "top HR>Out" means the pitcher is getting his stats pitching in a hitter's park so he turns the top home run number on an opposing batters' card into a fly out, and a "low out>HR means he pitchers in a pitchers' park so the lowest out on an opposing batter's card turns into home run.
Pitcher improve or down   Tm            + or -     + or -                             ERA    ProjCard   Max IP
Miguel CastroARI++++Add 1 to PB2.423.931
Kyle Nelson*ARI++++Add 1 to PB2.334.481
Jesse ChavezATL++++2-7 new2.01 1
Bryce ElderATL++++Add 1 to PB2.014.226
Lucas Luetge*ATL----Subtract 1 from PB7.714.072
A.J. Minter*ATL----Subtract 1 from PB7.433.251
Kyle WrightATL----Subtract 1 from PB5.793.944
Keegan Akin*BAL----Subtract 1 from PB5.913.51
Mike BaumannBAL++++4-7 new^top HR>Out3.67 2
Félix BautistaBAL++++Add 1 to PB1.443.142
Yennier CanoBAL++++2-8 new^top HR>Out0.68 2
Danny Coulombe*BAL++++2-7 new^top HR>Out2.41 1
Cole Irvin*BAL----Subtract 1 from PB10.384.544
Grayson RodriguezBAL----Subtract 1 from PB7.353.825
Brennan Bernardino*BOS++++4-7 new^top HR>Out3.38 2
Richard Bleier*BOS----Subtract 1 from PB5.854.032
Ryan BrasierBOS----Subtract 1 from PB7.294.082
Corey KluberBOS----Subtract 1 from PB6.264.695
Chris MartinBOS++++Add 1 to PB1.383.542
John SchreiberBOS++++Add 1 to PB2.123.741
Garrett WhitlockBOS----Subtract 1 from PB6.194.026
Josh WinckowskiBOS++++2-7 new^top HR>Out2.23 2
Mark Leiter Jr.CHC++++2-8 new1.77 2
Jameson TaillonCHC----Subtract 1 from PB8.14.384
Aaron Bummer*CHW----Subtract 1 from PB8.823.021
Reynaldo LópezCHW----Subtract 1 from PB6.333.711
Lance LynnCHW----Subtract 1 from PB5.833.936
Keynan MiddletonCHW++++2-8 new^top HR>Out1.65 1
Gregory SantosCHW++++2-7 new^top HR>Out2.45 2
Jake Diekman*CHW-TBR----Subtract 1 from PB8.043.671
Luis CessaCIN----Subtract 1 from PB94.984
Fernando CruzCIN----Subtract 1 from PB6.144.382
Alexis DíazCIN++++Add 1 to PB1.934.171
Derek LawCIN++++2-7 new^top HR>Out2.57 2
Nick Lodolo*CIN----Subtract 1 from PB6.293.685
Connor OvertonCIN----Subtract 1 from PB11.454.914
Reiver Sanmartin*CIN----Subtract 1 from PB7.073.992
Alex Young*CIN++++4-7 new^top HR>Out3.1 1
Enyel De Los SantosCLE++++Add 1 to PB23.671
Tim Herrin*CLE----Subtract 1 from PB7.453.812
Eli MorganCLE++++Add 1 to PB1.714.032
Zach PlesacCLE----Subtract 1 from PB7.594.615
Daniel BardCOL++++Add 1 to PB0.694.232
Jake BirdCOL++++Add 1 to PB2.414.72
Kyle Freeland*COL++++Add 1 to PB3.865.446
Pierce JohnsonCOL----Subtract 1 from PB6.534.671
Dinelson LametCOL----Subtract 1 from PB12.664.341
Justin LawrenceCOL++++Add 1 to PB2.334.562
Brent Suter*COL++++Add 1 to PB0.875.252
José UreñaCOL----Subtract 1 from PB9.825.634
Tyler Alexander*DET----Subtract 1 from PB6.654.262
Matthew Boyd*DET----Subtract 1 from PB5.744.225
José CisneroDET++++Add 1 to PB2.374.21
Jason FoleyDET++++Add 1 to PB1.693.951
Tyler Holton*DET++++2-7 new2.22 2
Alex LangeDET++++Add 1 to PB1.273.642
Eduardo Rodriguez*DET++++Add 1 to PB2.193.967
Spencer TurnbullDET----Subtract 1 from PB7.263.945
Will VestDET++++Add 1 to PB1.693.862
Joey Wentz*DET----Subtract 1 from PB7.84.575
Matt Moore*FA-LAA++++Add 1 to PB1.443.992
Bryan AbreuHOU++++Add 1 to PB1.143.332
Phil MatonHOU++++Add 1 to PB0.774.12
Rafael MonteroHOU----Subtract 1 from PB7.323.661
Hector NerisHOU++++Add 1 to PB1.273.722
Carlos HernándezKCR++++4-7 new^top HR>Out3.6 2
Jordan LylesKCR----Subtract 1 from PB7.34.986
Brady SingerKCR----Subtract 1 from PB7.483.845
Josh Taylor*KCR----Subtract 1 from PB7.133.652
Jaime BarriaLAA++++2-8 new^top HR>Out1.61 3
Tucker Davidson*LAA----Subtract 1 from PB6.34.212
Carlos EstévezLAA++++Add 1 to PB1.234.152
Aaron Loup*LAA----Subtract 1 from PB7.844.071
José Quijada*LAA----Subtract 1 from PB63.811
José Suarez*LAA----Subtract 1 from PB9.624.425
Yency AlmonteLAD----Subtract 1 from PB7.714.091
Caleb Ferguson*LAD++++Add 1 to PB0.983.681
Tony GonsolinLAD++++Add 1 to PB1.824.385
Victor González*LAD++++2-8 new1.98 2
Michael GroveLAD----Subtract 1 from PB8.444.765
Shelby MillerLAD++++Add 1 to PB2.744.42
Evan PhillipsLAD++++Add 1 to PB1.893.551
Alex Vesia*LAD----Subtract 1 from PB7.843.531
Steven Okert*MIA++++Add 1 to PB1.883.791
Joel PayampsMIL++++Add 1 to PB2.224.122
Devin WilliamsMIL++++Add 1 to PB0.593.122
Bryse WilsonMIL++++Add 1 to PB2.74.462
Javy GuerraMil-TBR----Subtract 1 from PB6.754.281
Jorge AlcalaMIN----Subtract 1 from PB6.463.772
Sonny GrayMIN++++Add 1 to PB1.8246
Kenta MaedaMIN----Subtract 1 from PB94.125
Bailey OberMIN++++Add 1 to PB2.554.196
Joe RyanMIN++++Add 1 to PB2.214.187
Brock StewartMIN++++2-8 new0 2
Carlos CarrascoNYM----Subtract 1 from PB6.753.946
David Peterson*NYM----Subtract 1 from PB8.083.135
David RobertsonNYM++++Add 1 to PB1.613.622
Dennis SantanaNYM----Subtract 1 from PB6.234.052
Ian HamiltonNYY++++2-8 new1.23 2
Clarke SchmidtNYY----Subtract 1 from PB5.584.025
Domingo AcevedoOAK----Subtract 1 from PB10.6142
Shintaro FujinamiOAK----Subtract 1 from PB12.694.362
James KaprielianOAK----Subtract 1 from PB8.454.794
Trevor MayOAK----Subtract 1 from PB93.761
Kyle Muller*OAK----Subtract 1 from PB8.043.845
Adam OllerOAK----Subtract 1 from PB10.074.53
Drew RucinskiOAK----Subtract 1 from PB94.085
Chad SmithOAK----Subtract 1 from PB6.33.642
Ken Waldichuk*OAK----Subtract 1 from PB7.43.875
José Alvarado*PHI++++Add 1 to PB0.632.852
Andrew BellattiPHI----Subtract 1 from PB5.683.791
Connor BrogdonPHI++++Add 1 to PB2.453.972
Craig KimbrelPHI----Subtract 1 from PB5.683.811
Gregory Soto*PHI----Subtract 1 from PB5.733.581
Ranger Suárez*PHI----Subtract 1 from PB9.823.914
Andrew Vasquez*PHI++++2-8 new1.21 2
David BednarPIT++++Add 1 to PB1.53.542
Chase De JongPIT----Subtract 1 from PB10.614.562
Jose Hernandez*PIT++++2-7 new^top HR>Out2.75 2
Colin HoldermanPIT++++Add 1 to PB2.454.11
Dauri MoretaPIT++++Add 1 to PB2.014.392
Vince VelasquezPIT++++Add 1 to PB3.064.686
Nabil CrismattSDP----Subtract 1 from PB10.83.982
Josh Hader*SDP++++Add 1 to PB0.822.892
Joe MusgroveSDP----Subtract 1 from PB5.643.736
Blake Snell*SDP----Subtract 1 from PB5.043.46
Matt BrashSEA----Subtract 1 from PB4.713.151
Diego CastilloSEA----Subtract 1 from PB6.233.532
Chris FlexenSEA----Subtract 1 from PB6.324.263
Trevor GottSEA++++Add 1 to PB1.993.911
Bryce MillerSEA++++2-8 new^low out>HR1.15 7
Penn MurfeeSEA++++Add 1 to PB1.383.91
Sean Manaea*SFG----Subtract 1 from PB6.614.053
Tyler RogersSFG++++Add 1 to PB2.084.372
Ross StriplingSFG----Subtract 1 from PB7.244.234
Jordan HicksSTL----Subtract 1 from PB4.793.212
Steven Matz*STL----Subtract 1 from PB5.723.736
Adam WainwrightSTL----Subtract 1 from PB6.334.356
Jalen Beeks*TBR----Subtract 1 from PB4.733.232
Colin Poche*TBR++++Add 1 to PB1.533.841
Ryan ThompsonTBR----Subtract 1 from PB6.63.841
Dane DunningTEX++++Add 1 to PB1.673.954
Jonathan HernándezTEX----Subtract 1 from PB6.273.841
Ian KennedyTEX----Subtract 1 from PB7.24.671
Will Smith*TEX++++Add 1 to PB2.654.172
Tim Mayza*TOR++++Add 1 to PB0.963.551
Zach PopTOR----Subtract 1 from PB6.593.991
Josiah GrayWSN++++Add 1 to PB2.654.876
Chad KuhlWSN----Subtract 1 from PB8.064.914
Erasmo RamírezWSN----Subtract 1 from PB5.924.312

Here are the team breakdowns.
Pitchers   BetterWorseNet

Index of All Improved Statis-Pro Batter Cards (8 are Rays)

The following is a list of all Statis-Pro Batters who have improved dramatically above their projected cards, or drop significantly below. A batter who has improve 80 points or more on the projected OPS on his card is included, but also added are players who did not have a card but projected to have a Home Run range of at least 27-31 after ball park adjustment. 

A small + sign indicates the player is upgraded and you can lower the opposing pitcher's PB by 1 any time he comes to bat. A small - by the name means he is not hitting as well as project, and you should increase the opposing pitcher's PB by 1 when he comes to bat.

Not surprisingly, if you look at the table beneath all the adjusted players, the Tampa Bay Rays are by far the most improved with eight improved players and noone playing worse than their card. The next three are pretty close, with Pittsburgh a +5 (7 improved, 2 dropped off), Texas a +5 (only improved players) and Atlanta a +4 (5 improved, 1 dropped off). We list what their OPS should be based on their card and what their actual OPS is this season. All batters and pitchers to have played this year with notes by which ones were adjusted are listed by team in this google sheet.

Batters improved or dropped Tm+ or -   Change Opp Pitcher      OPS now   Card OPS   Pos
Corbin Carroll (Bat: L)ARI++++Subtract 1 from PB0.880.77LF
Dominic Fletcher (Bat: L)ARI++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8240.678CF
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI++++Subtract 1 from PB0.930.775LF
Kyle LewisARI----Add 1 to PB0.5560.727LF
Jake McCarthy (Bat: L)ARI----Add 1 to PB0.4640.723RF
Geraldo Perdomo (Bat: S)ARI++++Subtract 1 from PB0.9280.616SS
Emmanuel RiveraARI++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8170.6873B
Alek Thomas (Bat: L)ARI----Add 1 to PB0.5790.711CF
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL++++Subtract 1 from PB0.9720.875RF
Orlando ArciaATL++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8850.69SS
Michael Harris II (Bat: L)ATL----Add 1 to PB0.5440.79CF
Sam Hilliard (Bat: L)ATL++++Subtract 1 from PB0.7560.664CF
Sean MurphyATL++++Subtract 1 from PB0.9350.796Ca
Marcell OzunaATL++++Subtract 1 from PB0.850.763LF
Austin HaysBAL++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8430.74LF
James McCannBAL----Add 1 to PB0.5090.678Ca
Ryan McKennaBAL++++Subtract 1 from PB0.7350.642RF
Cedric Mullins (Bat: L)BAL++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8470.743CF
Bobby DalbecBOS----Add 1 to PB0.490.7221B
Jarren Duran (Bat: L)BOS++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8370.714CF
Tucker Barnhart (Bat: L)CHC----Add 1 to PB0.4840.615Ca
Cody Bellinger (Bat: L)CHC++++Subtract 1 from PB0.830.714CF
Yan GomesCHC++++Subtract 1 from PB0.7880.681Ca
Eric Hosmer (Bat: L)CHC----Add 1 to PB0.610.7391B
Matt Mervis (Bat: L)CHC----Add 1 to PB0.5890.761B
Christopher MorelCHC++++Subtract 1 from PB1.1980.712CF
Edwin Rios (Bat: L)CHC----Add 1 to PB0.5110.7183B
Tim AndersonCHW----Add 1 to PB0.6040.755SS
Jake BurgerCHW++++Subtract 1 from PB0.9160.6763B
Oscar Colás (Bat: L)CHW----Add 1 to PB0.5410.691RF
Lenyn SosaCHW----Add 1 to PB0.3660.6642B
Seby ZavalaCHW----Add 1 to PB0.4310.628Ca
Curt CasaliCIN----Add 1 to PB0.4080.719Ca
TJ Friedl (Bat: L)CIN++++27-33 HR, B0.859 CF
Wil MyersCIN----Add 1 to PB0.5410.794RF
Will Brennan (Bat: L)CLE----Add 1 to PB0.5580.688RF
Oscar GonzalezCLE----Add 1 to PB0.5010.731RF
Kris BryantCOL----Add 1 to PB0.730.872RF
Elias DíazCOL++++Subtract 1 from PB0.9030.722Ca
Brenton DoyleCOL++++27-31 HR, AAA0.754 CF
Randal GrichukCOL++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8570.761CF
Nolan Jones (Bat: L)COL----Add 1 to PB0.250.7571B
Miguel CabreraDET----Add 1 to PB0.460.656 
Kerry Carpenter (Bat: L)DET++++27-31 HR, E0.744 RF
Andy IbáñezDET----Add 1 to PB0.4790.7133B
Zach McKinstry (Bat: L)DET++++27-33 HR, B0.801 2B
Austin Meadows (Bat: L)DET----Add 1 to PB0.5240.818LF
José AbreuHOU----Add 1 to PB0.5280.8021B
Alex BregmanHOU----Add 1 to PB0.690.8593B
David HensleyHOU----Add 1 to PB0.4030.6922B
Jackie Bradley Jr. (Bat: L)KCR----Add 1 to PB0.4370.58CF
Hunter DozierKCR----Add 1 to PB0.5580.7223B
Matt DuffyKCR++++Subtract 1 from PB0.7680.6723B
MJ Melendez (Bat: L)KCR----Add 1 to PB0.6410.779RF
Luis Rengifo (Bat: S)LAA----Add 1 to PB0.5810.7072B
Matt Thaiss (Bat: L)LAA++++Subtract 1 from PB0.7820.689Ca
Jared Walsh (Bat: L)LAA----Add 1 to PB0.4110.7591B
Taylor WardLAA----Add 1 to PB0.6160.799LF
Austin BarnesLAD----Add 1 to PB0.2970.699Ca
Michael Busch (Bat: L)LAD----Add 1 to PB0.5580.7313B
Jason Heyward (Bat: L)LAD++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8070.682RF
J.D. MartinezLAD++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8880.777 
James Outman (Bat: L)LAD++++Subtract 1 from PB0.820.726CF
Miguel RojasLAD----Add 1 to PB0.5050.676SS
Will SmithLAD++++Subtract 1 from PB0.9780.836Ca
Trayce ThompsonLAD----Add 1 to PB0.5660.741CF
Luis Arraez (Bat: L)MIA++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8930.7832B
Nick FortesMIA----Add 1 to PB0.5480.684Ca
Jesús Sánchez (Bat: L)MIA++++Subtract 1 from PB0.9140.74RF
Jean SeguraMIA----Add 1 to PB0.4920.7163B
Jorge SolerMIA++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8990.771RF
Jacob StallingsMIA----Add 1 to PB0.4260.651Ca
Joey Wendle (Bat: L)MIA----Add 1 to PB0.5260.716SS
Owen MillerMIL++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8640.6412B
Tyrone TaylorMIL----Add 1 to PB0.5060.746RF
Luis UríasMIL----Add 1 to PB00.7553B
Luke VoitMIL----Add 1 to PB0.5480.7311B
Jesse Winker (Bat: L)MIL----Add 1 to PB0.5660.78RF
Joey Gallo (Bat: L)MIN++++Subtract 1 from PB0.90.7561B
Nick Gordon (Bat: L)MIN----Add 1 to PB0.5030.718CF
Ryan JeffersMIN++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8090.707Ca
Alex Kirilloff (Bat: L)MIN++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8660.7121B
Jose MirandaMIN----Add 1 to PB0.5930.7883B
Francisco AlvarezNYM++++27-34 HR, E0.832 Ca
Brett Baty (Bat: L)NYM++++27-32 HR, E0.72 3B
Starling MarteNYM----Add 1 to PB0.5940.742RF
Oswaldo Cabrera (Bat: S)NYY----Add 1 to PB0.5530.678LF
Josh DonaldsonNYY----Add 1 to PB0.4890.7273B
Aaron Hicks (Bat: S)NYY----Add 1 to PB0.5240.665LF
Anthony Rizzo (Bat: L)NYY++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8910.7811B
Aledmys DíazOAK----Add 1 to PB0.4920.6743B
Tony Kemp (Bat: L)OAK----Add 1 to PB0.4660.6922B
Ryan Noda (Bat: L)OAK++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8130.6691B
Carlos PérezOAK++++27-33 HR, E0.766 Ca
Brent RookerOAK++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8930.701LF
Kody Clemens (Bat: L)PHI++++Subtract 1 from PB0.7840.621B
Darick Hall (Bat: L)PHI----Add 1 to PB0.5410.7331B
Josh HarrisonPHI----Add 1 to PB0.4640.6753B
Brandon Marsh (Bat: L)PHI++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8420.645CF
Kyle Schwarber (Bat: L)PHI----Add 1 to PB0.7170.847LF
Trea TurnerPHI----Add 1 to PB0.6760.846SS
Ji Hwan Bae (Bat: L)PIT++++27-27 HR, AAA0.683 CF
Rodolfo Castro (Bat: S)PIT++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8040.678SS
Ji Man Choi (Bat: L)PIT----Add 1 to PB0.4690.7521B
Jason DelayPIT++++Subtract 1 from PB0.840.552Ca
Austin HedgesPIT----Add 1 to PB0.4330.56Ca
Connor JoePIT++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8320.741RF
Tucupita Marcano (Bat: L)PIT++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8090.635SS
Andrew McCutchenPIT++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8260.738RF
Jack Suwinski (Bat: L)PIT++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8390.747CF
Nelson CruzSDP++++27-31 HR, D0.676 1B
Manny MachadoSDP----Add 1 to PB0.6540.8063B
Austin NolaSDP----Add 1 to PB0.4460.711Ca
Fernando Tatis Jr.SDP----Add 1 to PB0.7740.916RF
Jose CaballeroSEA++++27-34 HR, AA0.829 2B
Jarred Kelenic (Bat: L)SEA++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8540.709LF
Kolten Wong (Bat: L)SEA----Add 1 to PB0.4550.7172B
Brandon Crawford (Bat: L)SFG----Add 1 to PB0.5750.722SS
Mitch HanigerSFG----Add 1 to PB0.60.769LF
Blake Sabol (Bat: L)SFG++++27-32 HR, C0.758 Ca
Casey SchmittSFG++++27-34 HR, B0.851 SS
David VillarSFG----Add 1 to PB0.5580.7442B
LaMonte Wade Jr. (Bat: L)SFG++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8650.7431B
Paul DeJongSTL++++Subtract 1 from PB0.9220.686SS
Tommy Edman (Bat: S)STL++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8070.715SS
Nolan Gorman (Bat: L)STL++++Subtract 1 from PB0.9810.7542B
Tyler O'NeillSTL----Add 1 to PB0.620.779LF
Randy ArozarenaTBR++++Subtract 1 from PB0.9470.784LF
Christian BethancourtTBR++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8130.678Ca
Yandy DíazTBR++++Subtract 1 from PB1.070.7821B
Josh Lowe (Bat: L)TBR++++Subtract 1 from PB0.9710.682RF
Luke Raley (Bat: L)TBR++++Subtract 1 from PB0.890.6981B
Harold RamírezTBR++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8360.699LF
Jose SiriTBR++++Subtract 1 from PB0.9050.661CF
Taylor Walls (Bat: S)TBR++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8390.6423B
Ezequiel DuranTEX++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8550.699SS
Travis Jankowski (Bat: L)TEX++++Subtract 1 from PB0.7930.597LF
Corey Seager (Bat: L)TEX++++Subtract 1 from PB1.0310.817SS
Josh H. Smith (Bat: L)TEX++++27-32 HR, D0.752 SS
Leody Taveras (Bat: S)TEX++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8090.67CF
Bo BichetteTOR++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8820.797SS
Cavan Biggio (Bat: L)TOR----Add 1 to PB0.5210.7082B
Santiago EspinalTOR----Add 1 to PB0.540.7012B
Kevin Kiermaier (Bat: L)TOR++++Subtract 1 from PB0.8770.66CF
Jordan LuplowTOR----Add 1 to PB0.1430.758RF
Daulton Varsho (Bat: L)TOR----Add 1 to PB0.640.821LF
Jake Alu (Bat: L)WSN----Add 1 to PB0.5160.733LF
Victor RoblesWSN++++Subtract 1 from PB0.7480.644CF
Here is the team summary.

Team          Improve   Disappointment   Improve?