|St. Peter's 2022||Ht||Pos||Pts||Reb||Stl||Blk||Foul||Actual Season Stats|
|Matthew Lee||6'0||1-PG||4||1||1||0||4||6.8 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 2.9 Ast|
|Daryl Banks||6'3||2-SG||6||1||2||0||1||11.3 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 1.4 Ast|
|KC Ndefo||6'7||3-SF||6||4||0||1||2||10.5 Pts, 6.1 Reb, 2.4 Ast|
|Doug Edert||6'2||4-PF||4||3||0||0||2||9.5 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 0.9 Ast|
|Fousseyni Drame||6'7||5-C||6||11||0||2||1||7.0 Pts, 6.4 Reb, 0.7 Ast|
|Jaylen Murray||5'11||1-PG||2||2||0||0||2||5.8 Pts, 1.6 Reb, 1.6 Ast|
|Clarence Rupert||6'8||2-SG||2||1||0||0||1||4.4 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 0.7 Ast|
|Hassan Drame||6'7||3-SF||2||5||0||0||1||6.0 Pts, 5.3 Reb, 0.8 Ast|
|Isiah Dasher||6'3||4-PF||5||4||1||1||3||4.8 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 0.8 Ast|
|Oumar Diahame||6'10||5-C||2||1||0||0||1||1.9 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 0.0 Ast|
|Total Turnovers 11||39||33||4||4||18|
|UConn 2023||Ht||Pos||Pts||Reb||Stl||Blk||Foul||Actual Season Stats|
|Tristen Newton||6'5||1-PG||11||6||1||1||2||10.1 Pts, 4.5 Reb, 4.7 Ast|
|Andre Jackson||6'6||2-SG||6||7||2||0||2||6.7 Pts, 6.2 Reb, 4.7 Ast|
|Alex Karaban||6'8||3-SF||11||8||0||1||1||9.3 Pts, 4.5 Reb, 1.7 Ast|
|Jordan Hawkins||6'5||4-PF||21||4||1||0||2||16.2 Pts, 3.8 Reb, 1.3 Ast|
|Adama Sanogo||6'9||5-C||8||8||1||4||1||17.2 Pts, 7.7 Reb, 1.3 Ast|
|Hassan Diarra||6'2||1-PG||2||1||0||1||1||2.1 Pts, 1.3 Reb, 1.8 Ast|
|Joey Calcaterra||6'3||2-SG||2||4||0||0||1||5.8 Pts, 1.7 Reb, 1.2 Ast|
|Nahiem Alleyne||6'4||3-SF||2||3||0||0||1||5.2 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 0.8 Ast|
|Samson Johnson||6'10||4-PF||2||1||0||0||1||0.9 Pts, 0.8 Reb, 0.1 Ast|
|Donovan Clingan||7'2||5-C||12||3||0||1||1||6.9 Pts, 5.6 Reb, 0.5 Ast|
|Total Turnovers 6||77||45||5||8||13|
Sunday, September 24, 2023
We have started to go through all of the team sheets to verify any tweaks needed to the dunk ranges, and to make it easier when you play the game we are listing a line across the top of the team sheet as shown below.
We have made it through the first 27 pages of List A, listing the Offensive Rating (AdjO) and Defensive Rating (AdjD) of each team, and then to combined Game Rating - which is the first number minus the second number times 100 and then minus 17. The + or - number tells you how many points per 100 possessions each team is better or worse than the average team in the game.
If we have actually verified the exact numbers for a given team using the dunk calculator, like with the top seed in our current tournament (defending champions UConn) and their first tournament opponent (St. Peter's Cinderella Final 4 team from 2022) then we put "Verified" to let you now there will be no changes for cards. However, we applied our advanced calculations to see which cards will likely need an adjustment, and in those cases such as California 1959 where we realize the team will probably be upgraded about 3 numbers on the dunk range - in those cases we do what they did on their cards below - put in a temporary adjustment of California's cards from a 51-53 dunk range to a 51-56 range.
Because there is a 31 point gap between UConn and St. Peter's ranks we would expect UConn to be about 31 points better per 100 trips. Of course, basketball games only last about 2/3rds that many possessions, so we might peg UConn as a 20 point favorite.
After three straight tournament games coming down to the wire, we will see if our top seed can handle our bottom seed more easily - or if this will be another UVA vs. last seed.
Ja Morant and Murray State dominated Coach Mike Krzyzewski's final Duke squad most of the way. With 18 possessions to play, Morant converted an "and-one" to make him 14 of 15 from the line, give Murray State a 63-56 lead, and give Wendell Moore his 4th foul after Jeremy Roach had already fouled out guarding Morant. Morant would finish with 30 points (see complete box score at bottom,and click Value Add Basketball Game. for the free game).
The game pitted Coach K's last team which made it to the 2022 Final Four, against Ja Morant's debut on the national stage, where his team destroyed Markus Howard and Marquette in the 2019 opening round the year before Morant was name NBA Rookie of the Year.
Morant's NBA teammate Shaq Buchanan put up 28 points, while Duke had to put three players in the game who were not scheduled to play to cover the extra possessions at Point Guard. Joe Baker had to play the final 12 possessions even though his Stamina is only 6, meaning on the last 6 possessions all numbers were adjusted on against him due to fatigue.
However, with Murray State's other eight players combining for only 20 points, Duke's balance and size wore Murray State down in the end. Mark Williams, with the ultimate 21-26, 23 blocked shot range as a 7-footer, blocked a couple of shots that would have gone into tie the game late, and grabbed a game high 12 rebounds to help Duke to a 32-25 edge on the Boards, and Duke won the last 10 minutes 29-15 to pull the game out 85-78 to advance in our 4th all-time great tournament.
This is our 4th tournament using the all-time great teams in the Value Add Basketball Game. Our first men's all-time 96 greatest teams ever, but limiting each team to one team per century, concluded with Bill Walton's UCLA defeating Michael Jordan's UNC, 66-58 (see men's game log here). In our All-Time Women's tournament we believed the UConn 2010 and 2016 teams were the best two, but in the end it was Pat Summit's 1998 Tennessee 66 defeating Louisiana Tech led by then point guard Kim Mulkey 58. We then created another 50 teams and Paul Pierce' Kansas 1997 team destroyed the last Big Ten Champion (Mateen Cleaves 2000Michigan State) 85-61 for the second title. Those two were not included in the first batch because I had gone with Wilt Chamberlain's Kansas team and Magic Johnson's Michigan State team. On the women's side Pat Summit's Tennessee beat Notre Dame for the title. This tournament is between a third batch of additional teams created to catch a few more great teams from those schools that already had a few in the game, but with a bigger focus on getting new colleges at least one team - particularly making sure any team in one of the major conferences in 2024 have at least one team from their history.
Note: And yes, I am watching the Packers' game on TV like everyone else in Wisconsin as I roll my first dice of the game. I actually find it is easier to play a different board game sport then the sport I am watching TV. Otherwise I have moments where I do things like, "wait, did I just have a double on my game or was that a double in the gam eon TV LOL."
Because we are now making slight adjustments to some teams Dunk Ranges to make the game even more precise, note that I am starting to put at the top of the team if the team's dunk ranges have been "Verified." If this is not the case, and you see an adjustment listed by the team on the top of the google doc, then you can adjust the dunk range up or down by the number specified (biggest improvement possible is a +4, while worst is a -4, but most are unchanged).
Both teams have a mediocre 0.99 defense A (expected to allow 0.99 points per possession against other great teams in the game), which was better than we expected for Duke 2022 who we improved from a +3 to 0 on the defensive adjustment. The reason Murray State has the same defensive rating but a slightly worse +1 is that their average defensive steals range is 4.2 while Duke's is 3.2 as shown on this dunk range calculator. Therefore Murray State on average steals the ball on a 11-14 and Duke on a 11-13 giving Murray State a slightly edge on defense, so the calculator balances this by giving Duke a slightly better +0 to Murray State's +1 on allowing open drives to the basket and they come out even at a 0.99 AdjD.
The other factors are equal for both teams, which both average 3.6 on blocked shots a 3.2 on defensive rebounds. A 3.0 is the average on all three of these factors, so both are at least above average on all three other defensive factors.
However, on offense Duke's 51-57 dunk range was verified as already accurate, while it turns out Murray State was lowered to no dunk range (their cards are good enough offensively to score the 1.03 per trip, but it takes 7 in the dunk range to get Duke to average 1.13 per trip with completely average dice rolls).
When you put it all together, when Murray State has the ball there is no dunk range so we ignore all rolls of 51-66 and go to the 20-sided die for the result of the shot or foul drawn.
When you go to the Value Add Basketball Game dunk charge, Duke's 51-57 dunk range and the +1 from Murray State's defense adds up to 51-58, but that is really a 51-62 in the game since these are two 6-sided dice so there are no rolls of 57, 58, 59 or 60.
|Pos||Murray State 2019||Actual Stats||Ht||Pts||Reb||Stls||Blks||Fls|
|1-PG||Ja Morant||24.5 Pts, 5.7 Reb, 10.0 Ast||6'3||30||2||2||1||3|
|2-SG||Leroy Buchanan||13.0 Pts, 4.2 Reb, 1.7 Ast||6'3||28||4||1||1||3|
|3-SF||Tevin Brown||11.8 Pts, 4.7 Reb, 2.3 Ast||6'5||4||6||1||0||2|
|4-PF||Darnell Cowart||10.3 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 1.1 Ast||6'8||3||3||0||0||4|
|5-C||K.J. Williams||7.6 Pts, 4.7 Reb, 0.5 Ast||6'10||2||4||0||1||1|
|1-PG||Brion Whitley||3.0 Pts, 0.6 Reb, 0.3 Ast||6'4||0||0||0||0||1|
|2-SG||Jaiveon Eaves||3.5 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 0.4 Ast||6'2||0||0||0||0||0|
|3-SF||Brion Sanchious||2.7 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 0.6 Ast||6'8||5||4||0||0||2|
|4-PF||Mike Davis||3.2 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 0.6 Ast||6'7||4||1||1||1||1|
|5-C||Devin Gilmore||3.6 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 0.4 Ast||6'6||2||1||0||1||1|
|Murray St. Totals||Game Turnovers 11||78||25||5||5||18|
|Pos||Duke 2022||Actual Stats||Ht||Pts||Reb||Stls||Blks||Fls|
|1-PG||Jeremy Roach||8.6 Pts, 2.4 Reb, 3.2 Ast||6'1||4||1||1||0||5|
|2-SG||Wendell Moore||13.4 Pts, 5.3 Reb, 4.4 Ast||6'5||15||2||3||0||4|
|3-SF||Trevor Keels||11.5 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 2.7 Ast||6'4||16||1||2||0||1|
|4-PF||Paolo Banchero||17.2 Pts, 7.8 Reb, 3.2 Ast||6'10||19||8||2||2||2|
|5-C||Mark Williams||11.2 Pts, 7.4 Reb, 0.9 Ast||7'0||10||12||0||3||1|
|1-PG||Jaylen Blakes||1.0 Pts, 0.7 Reb, 0.5 Ast||6'1||2||1||0||0||2|
|2-SG||Bates Jones||1.4 Pts, 1.1 Reb, 0.4 Ast||6'8||7||2||1||0||1|
|3-SF||Joey Baker||4.5 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 0.4 Ast||6'6||2||1||0||0||2|
|4-PF||AJ Griffin||10.4 Pts, 3.9 Reb, 1.0 Ast||6'6||4||1||0||1||1|
|5-C||Theo John||2.8 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 0.4 Ast||6'9||6||3||0||0||2|
|Duke Totals||Game Turnovers 9||85||32||9||6||21|
Friday, September 22, 2023
Post game update: Scroll to the bottom for the scoresheet on Indiana State's 74-70 survival against UCF. Larry Bird was a perfect 4 of 4 on 3-pointers for a game-high 16 points, but that was well below his average in 1979. He was guarded by Johnny Dawkins son and Michigan transfer Aubrey Dawkins and 7-foot-6 Tacko Fall rejected two of Bird's shots among Fall's six blocks in the Value Add Basketball Game matchup.
However it was the other NBA player on the court in Indiana State point guard Carl Nicks who stole the ball after a UCF offensive rebound with less than a minute left and a 72-70 score. UCF then had to use the "turnover or foul" defense to keep the game from ending. It was Nick's who they fouled after failing to get a steal, and despite being only an average free throw shooter (1-13 made in 20-side die or 65%) Nick's sank them both for the 74-70 final and UCF's final jumper at the horn was no good but irrelevant.
Indiana State advances with the win and will definitely be one of the top 11 seeds remaining so will get a bye to the third round while the 12th to 21st best first round winners will play in the 2nd round to make the Sweet 16.
The following was written before the game, and the scoresheet is at the bottom.
Pre game write up
Perhaps the most fun match-up in the first round of our current 42-team tournament is Indiana State's 1979 Runner-up team vs. Central Florida's (UCF).
For the set-up, Bird may have the best card in the entire Value Add Basketball Game. His "Gets ball on: 3 SF 6&8" means he gets the ball on three numbers on the 8-sided die, or 37.5 percent of the time, and once he gets it he hits a 3-pointer 30% of the time (1-6 on the 20-sided die). Keep in mind that doesnt mean he misses 70% of 3sz but rather 6 of 20 times he gets the ball in the game he makes a 3. Bird is an incredible rebounder on offense and defense (1-8) and has the max steals (11-20 which is the same as 11-16, 31 All) and almost as good at blocking shots (21-26). With the dunk range of 51-56 that could be the best offensive card in the game.
However, Indiana State is only a fair defensive team (+0 on dunk adjustment) and will need to go up against the only player who scores or is fouled on 17 numbers on the 20-sided die in Fall. He makes a 2-point shot on 1-11 and is fouled on 12-17, only missing a shot on an 18-20. His offensive rebound range of 1-9 means anytime a rebound comes up as "high on court" he would grab the rebound even over Larry Bird's defensive 1-8. He never steals the ball, but he does have the maximum blocked shot range of 21-26, 32 all (listed as 21-30 on some teams) which means he blocks a shot on the opposing center on 21-26 and when anyone in the game shoots on a 32.
At first glance, someone might think his card would produce even more points than Bird's because of only missing on 3 numbers out of 20, but actually it is great but not nearly as great s Bird's for three reasons. First, his stamina is 30 of 44 possessions, so like many big men he is not on the court as much as Bird's 37 of 44. Second, while he goes to the foul line a lot, his free throws made are only good on a 1-7 out of 20 for a 35% free throw range. Finally Central Florida's 51-51 dunk range makes for a very low overall offensive rating due to lighter opponents during the year compared to Indiana State's 51-56 for a high powered overall offense.
Due to Central Florida's tough defense (-2) they hold Indiana State's dunk range down to 51-54, while Indiana State's weaker defense of 0 leaves Central Florida's dunk range for the game at 51-51.
We showed Indiana State's player cards at the top. Below that are the list of Offensive (Adj0) and Defensive (AdjD) overall point expectations of cards, with Indiana State at 1.14 points per trip in the game, and defense (AdjD) at 0.98. UCF is a weaker offense (1.03) but better defense (0.93). Finaly for the stat nerds we include the calculation of both teams dunk range with formulas available in this google sheet.
We set up the box score at the bottom and will fill it in after the game.
Game Results to follow with conclusion of game.
Box Score. Next to each player there are 4 numbers for points, rebounds, steals and blocked shots. For Bird that was 16 points, 5 rebounds, 2 steals and 1 block. For Fall that was 12 points, 8 rebounds, 0 steals and 6 blocks.
|Pos||Central Florida 2019||Season Stats||Ht||Pts||Reb||Stl||Blk||Foul|
|1-PG||Terrell Allen||6.7 Pts, 3.2 Reb, 4.3 Ast||6'3|
|2-SG||B.J. Taylor||15.9 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 3.2 Ast||6'2|
|3-SF||Aubrey Dawkins||15.6 Pts, 5.0 Reb, 1.4 Ast||6'6|
|4-PF||Collin Smith||8.0 Pts, 5.2 Reb, 1.5 Ast||6'11|
|5-C||Tacko Fall||11.1 Pts, 7.6 Reb, 0.5 Ast||7'6|
|1-PG||Frank Bertz||3.1 Pts, 1.4 Reb, 0.5 Ast||6'5|
|2-SG||Ceasar DeJesus||3.4 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 0.7 Ast||6'2|
|3-SF||Chance McSpadden||0.9 Pts, 1.9 Reb, 0.4 Ast||6'4|
|4-PF||Dayon Griffin||4.6 Pts, 2.1 Reb, 1.1 Ast||6'4|
|5-C||Chad Brown||4.5 Pts, 5.0 Reb, 0.4 Ast||6'9|
|Pos||Indiana State 1979||Season Stats||Ht||Pts||Reb||Stl||Blk||Foul|
|1-PG||Carl Nicks||19.3 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 5.0 Ast||6'1|
|2-SG||Bob Heaton||7.3 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 1.8 Ast||6'5|
|3-SF||Larry Bird||28.6 Pts, 14.9 Reb, 5.5 Ast||6'9|
|4-PF||Leroy Staley||7.0 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 0.7 Ast||6'4|
|5-C||Alex Gilbert||9.6 Pts, 6.1 Reb, 0.4 Ast||6'7|
|1-PG||Steve Reed||5.0 Pts, 1.9 Reb, 7.0 Ast||6'3|
|2-SG||Rich Nemcek||1.7 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.6 Ast||6'6|
|3-SF||Scott Turner||2.1 Pts, 1.1 Reb, 0.3 Ast||6'5|
|4-PF||Brad Miley||5.7 Pts, 6.0 Reb, 1.6 Ast||6'8|
|5-C||Tom Crowder||1.9 Pts, 1.3 Reb, 0.2 Ast||6'5|
Thursday, September 21, 2023
Nebraska's Terran Petteway torched Duke for 23 points to show how he finished the 2014 season dominating top 10 schools like Michigan State and Wisconsin to give the Cornhuskers 10 of 12 wins to close the regular season with their only NCAA bid of the century.
The Cornhuskers did not have any NBA players that year, and Duke had eight - behind only 1991 UNC and Duke
|Nebraska 2014||Pts||Reb||Stl||Blk||Fouls||Pos||Ht||Actual 2014 Stats|
|Tai Webster||2||1||2||0||3||1-PG||6'4||3.9 Pts, 2.1 Reb, 2.0 Ast|
|Ray Gallegos||8||4||3||0||2||2-SG||6'2||7.3 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 1.4 Ast|
|Terran Petteway||23||4||1||1||4||3-SF||6'6||18.1 Pts, 4.8 Reb, 1.6 Ast|
|Shavon Shields||10||6||0||0||4||4-PF||6'7||12.8 Pts, 5.8 Reb, 1.6 Ast|
|Walter Pitchford||9||6||0||2||2||5-C||6'10||9.3 Pts, 4.7 Reb, 0.5 Ast|
|Benny Parker||8||2||2||3||1||1-PG||5'9||2.4 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.9 Ast|
|Deverell Biggs||2||1||0||0||1||2-SG||6'1||9.9 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 1.5 Ast|
|David Rivers||6||2||0||0||1||3-SF||6'7||3.0 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 0.4 Ast|
|Nathan Hawkins||2||1||0||0||1||4-PF||6'5||1.4 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 0.3 Ast|
|Leslee Smith||2||4||1||2||2||5-C||6'8||5.4 Pts, 4.8 Reb, 0.4 Ast|
|11 Neb Turnovers||72||31||9||8||21|
|Duke 2015||Pts||Reb||Stl||Blk||Fouls||Pos||Ht||Actual 2015 Stats|
|Tyus Jones||16||2||1||0||1||1-PG||6'1||11.8 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 5.6 Ast|
|Quinn Cook||12||1||3||0||2||2-SG||6'2||15.3 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 2.6 Ast|
|Justise Winslow||12||13||2||1||2||3-SF||6'6||12.6 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 2.1 Ast|
|Jahlil Okafor||10||7||3||1||4||4-PF||6'11||17.3 Pts, 8.5 Reb, 1.3 Ast|
|Amile Jefferson||8||3||2||1||1||5-C||6'9||6.1 Pts, 5.8 Reb, 0.8 Ast|
|Rasheed Sulaimon||2||1||0||0||1||1-PG||6'5||7.5 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 1.8 Ast|
|Matt Jones||2||2||0||0||3||2-SG||6'5||6.0 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 1.0 Ast|
|Grayson Allen||9||2||0||0||1||3-SF||6'4||4.4 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.4 Ast|
|Marshall Plumlee||2||4||0||0||1||4-PF||7'0||2.2 Pts, 2.4 Reb, 0.3 Ast|
|Semi Ojeleye||2||1||0||0||1||5-C||6'8||3.0 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 0.2 Ast|
|11 Duke Steals||75||36||11||3||17|
Petteway tied the score 67-67 with six possessions to play in the Value Add Basketball Game after 3-point specialist Ray Gallegos (1-5 on the 20-sided die is a made 3-pointer) his a 3-pointer the previous possession. With two possessions left, Nebraska changed strategy to play for a 3-pointer, which means shooters add a 3-pointer for every 2-pointer made they can turn to a 2-pointer missed as long as they do not more than double the 3-pointers made. On the 20-sided die, Gallegos normally hits a 3-pointer on a 1-5, and a 2-pointer on a 6-7 - so with this strategy a 1-6 was a made 3-pointer and a 7 turned into a missed show. The ball came to him on a 2 roll (shooting guard) on the 8-sided dice and he drained the clutch shot on a "6" to pull Nebraska to within 70-73, and they got it to him for one last shot on the final roll of the game, but it fell short for a 72-75 loss.
Justise Winslow grabbed his 13th rebound of the game and Duke escaped to our second round. They were saved by 13-13 from the line from their two guards - Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook, both of whom make free throws on a 20-sided die roll of 1-18. Trailing 73-72, Nebraska had to use the "turnover or foul" strategy on the after cutting the lead to 73-72 to create and extra possession below the diagonal line on the final possession to get the ball back.
When this strategy is used, the 20-sided die is not used since a shot will not happen. The 8-sided die still determines who gets the ball, and then if the two six-sided die (11-66 roll) come up as a turnover in the 41-46 range, or as a steal in the 11-16 range or 31, then there is a turnover but on any other roll the player who got the ball gets two free throws. Jones had already gone 9 of 9, but this intentional foul put Cook at the line to hit the final two to make it 75-72 and make that the final when Winslow grabbed his 13th rebound of the game at the other end.
Duke did drop to 53rd in our rankings which drops them below Rutgers 1976 to make them the 3rd seed for the next round as of now, but other teams who still need to play their first round game can still move up with a win if Alabama 2023 beats last year's Creighton team, Duke's 2022 team beat Murray State, or Larry Bird's 1979 Indiana State team beats Central Florida.
Here is box from the game and below that the top 11 seeds for the second round if the first round ended today (the 12th through 21st seeds will then play in against each other to determine which five winners of a second game advance to the Sweet 16 against the top 11 seeds after one round of play.
19 UConn 2023 still to play St. Peter’s 2019
43 Rutgers - 1976 - Phil Sellers
53 Duke – 2015 – Justise Winslow
60 Gonzaga - 2023 - Drew Timme
61 Kansas - 2022 - Ochai Agbaji
68 Houston 2023 vs Princeton
69 Marquette - 2023 - Tyler Kolek
75 Alabama 2023 vs Creighton 2023
84 Duke 2022 vs. Murray State 2019
85 Marquette - 1994 - Jim McIlvaine
86 Indiana State and Larry Bird 1979 vs Central Florida 2019
This post is more for fellow nerds as I prepare to play my next Value Add Basketball Game - Coach K's last national champions (Duke 2015) vs. Nebraska's only team to make the tournament this century - from the year before Duke's title in 2014.
We originally allowed only one team from each century for each school, but added yet another Duke team when we went through the greatest teams left out so far - though still limiting to just a few teams from each school in our 179 great all time teams. When the 2024 conference realignment was decided we would make sure every team in one of the big five conferences - the Power 5 football plus the basketball-only Big East - and 2014 was the team we chose for Nebraska.
The year before we went through the last couple of tournaments and picked a number of new teams starting with Ja LaMont's 2019 Murray State team.
Having now added teams in a few waves, we wanted to also go back through and apply the exact same criteria for calculating the Dunk Ranges and defensive equivalent Adj Dunk Range. These are the most important final stat because they adjust for eras of play, and level of competition. Without the dunk range a team with the exact same stats playing SWAC opponents would have the exact same cards as a team with the exact same stats playing in a power conference. The dunk range calibrates very accurately to adjust for how each player would likely do playing against average competition.
We have not detailed how these are calculated until this blog. For starters, this google sheet contains all the calculations that go into the calculations. We are as precise in this as we were in determine that if a team is at home in a game then letting them flip any die result of 36 or 66 for the other would on average adjust to give the home team a 3 point a game advantage in an average game of rolls.
While we are going through the cards using the google sheet above to adjust teams dunk ranges, you can still keep playing with current cards. Only the dunk ranges and adj opp dunk ranges will be adjusted.
To show you the process, we will start with the Duke 2015 cards and calculations.
Next we go to their opponent, Nebraska 2014. After all the same steps, Nebraska's dunk range was lowered from a 51-54 dunk range to no dunk range (which we list as 51-50 meaning no numbers to get to their target 0.98 efficiency, which is very weak in the game.
Their adjust dunk opponent range was -1 and that turned out to calculate perfectly to get them to the target 0.98 so no change was made to the card.
Wednesday, September 20, 2023
|Rating||Great Team, Year, Player||Won||Lost||Score||Allow||Opp SOS||Rating|
|43||Rutgers - 1976 - Phil Sellers||1||0||97.0||77.0||-9.0||2.0|
|60||Gonzaga - 2023 - Drew Timme||1||0||86.0||74.0||-6.7||0.7|
|61||Kansas - 2022 - Ochai Agbaji||1||0||87.0||81.0||-7.9||0.6|
|68||Marquette - 2023 - Tyler Kolek||1||0||90.0||81.0||-1.8||-0.3|
|85||Marquette - 1994 - Jim McIlvaine||1||0||80.0||78.0||-1.4||-2.2|
|32||Doug Edert||174||St. Peter's||2022|
|28||Ja Morant||161||Murray St.||2019|
|6||Larry Bird||86||Indiana St.||1979|
|27||Joey Graham||147||Central Florida||2019|
|7||DeAndre Kane||90||Iowa St.||2014|
|8||Armando Bacot||96||North Carolina||2022|
|25||Jared Dudley||143||Boston College||2006|
|12||Charlie Ward||111||Florida St.||1993|
|13||Jaedon LeDee||114||San Diego St.||2023|
|20||Tony Carr||128||Penn St.||2018|
|19||Markquis Nowell||126||Kansas St.||2023|
|15||Logan Johnson||117||St. Mary's||2023|
|17||Johnell Davis||119||Florida Atlantic||2023|