Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Votto keeps Reds Alive, After Mets Blow Out

Joey Votto homered early then doubled and scored the game-winning run against the Mets in 6-5 win. However, Castillo's collapse in the first game (3.1 innings, 7 earned runs allowed) gave the Mets a first game "sweep." The Mets led 8-2 after 8 innings to qualify for the sweep, and the Hand came in to save it in the 9th after three straight homers by Winkler, Moustakas and Suarez.

The Mets clinch the division unless they are swept twice by the Cardinals to count as a 6game to none series. The Cardinals need to at list split to carch the Reds at 55-53. The Padres could finish with anywhere from 49 to 61 wins, and two of those three teams will be the final two wild card teams baring very strange finishes by other teams.

The Padres still need to play the top 2 teams in our Statis-pro league, the Brewers and Dodgers.

Sunday, September 12, 2021

Crazy 4-way 1st Place Tie Scenario in Statis-pro Baseball South and East

The Braves won their final 3 games if the season by one run, including a 5-4 win over the Nats, and then their deep pen closed the season with 13 straight scoreless innings to pull off 4-3 amd in 14 innings a 3-2 win over the Cards.

They finish the season 57-51, which should secure one of the 4 wild card spots as we finish other teams seasons. 

With the only South and East Division series left being Mets 6-game series against both the Cardinals and Reds, there remains one crazy scenario. If the Reds beat the Mets 4 games to 2 and the Cardinals beat the Mets 5 games to 1 then all 4 teams would finish at the same 57-51 to tie for 1st.

We will figure that out if it happens, but outside of that exacto someone will finish ahead of the Braves for the division and the Braves will be a wildcard.

Braves Still Tied for Last Playoff Spot after Disappointing Split wuth Nats

Robles and Soto and the top of the line-up combined for a 8 of 19 series to hand the Braves a disappointing split in a wild twin bill. The Nats won 10-9 in 11 innings, then the Braves survived 5-4 when Albies (Clutch defense 5) turned a line drive into a double play to erase a 9th inning leadoff double by Mercer.

Smyly had thrown 6 shutout innings to stake the Braves to a 5-0 lead only to have the Nats score 4 in the bottom of the 7th off Ynoa. Albies went 4 of 10 with 2 homers in the series.

The Braves are in a virtual 3-way tie for the last 2 playoff spots with the Reds and Cards, which both still need to play the Mets. The Braves will wrap up against the Cards.

The Nats are barely mathematically alive to back into the playoffs at 53-55, but it is pretty unrealistic:

Only one of the following 5 things can happen. If at least 2 happen the Nats are eliminated:

  1. Braves go at least 1-5 vs cardinals
  2. Cardinals go at least 4-8 (which they will do if no. 1 does not happen, so at this step the nats will either be eliminated or alive but any if the following eliminate them)
  3. Reds go at least 1-5 (if Reds also go 0-6 at this step and Nats still alive the 2 more things could eliminate them)
  4. Padres go at least 5-7
  5. Cubs go at least 4-2.

Saturday, September 11, 2021

Reds Beat Nats to Tie for Last Playoff Spot, But Had Chance for More

Lorenzen won the game with 2 scoreless innings, and in between doubled in the winning run in the top of the 7th to give the Reds a 1-0 en route to a 2-0 win. 

The Reds won the series 4 games to 2 to get back in a tie for the final playoff spot. Sonny Gray's 7 IP, 1R allowed in the first game was almost enough to give them a 5 games to 1 series win. In fact the score if the game was 5-1, but it was 5-0 after 3 innings after a 2-run homer by Aquino and the Reds could not ever get one more run for the 5+ margin to get credit for a 3 game sweep vs. The 2 games to 1 credit the received for each of the two actual game wins.

The series took only 41 minutes to play - hardly a workout on my treadmill desk.

Tuesday, September 7, 2021

Biggest Statis-pro Shocker: Giants-Cubs Biggest Series Flip of Season

With their ace Hendriks throwing a 2-hit the Cubs led 5-0 and were 4 outs from leading 5 at the end of 8 innings to qualify for a sweep and move them into an improbable playoff spot while the Giants playoff hopes were in peril.

Crawford then homered off Hendrik, who arill led 5-1 when he left after 8. However, the Cubs staff since Kimbrel has no pitcher better than a PB2-7, and the Giants exploded for 5 runs in the 9th to win 6-5 on 2 walks, a double by Yaz, single by Crawford, triple by Dubon and pinchhit double by pinch hitter Flores.

The Giants kept rolling with an 11-4 sweep in the second game off No. 4 starter Williams, a PB 2-4. The top two in the line-up, Slater and Posey combined to go 7 of 16 with five doubles and a homer after neither had a hit in the first game.

The Giants improve to +2 games above the last wildcard spot with only 6 games to play, while the Cubs are now a longshot as they host the Brewers in the season finale.

Monday, September 6, 2021

Final 10 NL Statis-pro Series (Giants split with Padres)

After the Padres-Giants Series (see below), each team has two 2-game series remaining, counting as a total of 12 games. Here is our grid of all games.

Here are the final 10 total series remaining before the playoffs, with a note of how many games out (negative number) or ahead of the last playoff spot each team is. The series can be played in any order with each team startinf their 1st and 4th best pitchers or the 2nd and 3rd best in each series.

North and West - Padres have toughest schedule, a game out of the playoffs and needing to play the top 2 teams in the NL.

Brewers +6 vs Cubs -1

Brewers +6 vs. Padres -1

Dodgers +5 vs. Padres -1

Dodgers +5 vs. Giants +0

Giants +0 vs. Cubs -1

North and South - Mets have a 4-game cushion, while Braves vs. Cards features the 2 divisional teams tied for the last playoff spot.

Mets +4 vs. Cardinals +0

Mets +4 vs. Reds -1

Braves +0 vs. Cardinals +0

Braves +0 vs. Nationals -2

Reds -1 vs. Nationals -2

Padres vs. Giants

Padres Musgrove (7 IP, 1 R), Melancon and Adams combined for a 3-1 win in the nightcap to salvage a split. 

Tatis led the Padres bats woth a 4 of 8 series including 3 homers and a double.

However, the Giants stayed ahead in the standings with 12 hits in the 6th through 9th innings alone to rally from down 3-1 to a 9-4 win. It was not a sweep because they led by only 3 at the end if the 8th inning.

LaStella went 6 of 9 with a double and homer and Posey went 3 of 8 including a double.


Cards 19-7 Thrashing of Nats Finally Clarifies Playoff Picture

For weeks all 10 Statis-Pro NL qualifiers have been at least tied for one of the 6 playoff spots. That changed when Bader reached base his first 6 times at bat including 3 doubles and a homer and Arenado finished a 7 of 11 series with 3 doubles in a 19-6 sweep over the Nats.

The one key pitcher was recemtly acquired JA Happ. Since we only use 4 starting pitchers, pitchers like Happ can pitch long relief for up to 3 innings, and after Soto blasted his 3rd homer of the twin bill to cut the deficit to 10-7 and chase mikolas in the 4th, Happ came in for a scoreless 2 1-3 for the win.

If the playoffs were help now, we finally have 6 teams that would make it. 

6-seed Giants at 3-seed Dodgers, with a Dodgers win sending them to play 2-seed Mets or Giants win sending them to face 1-seed Brewers.

5-seed Cardinals at 4-seed Braves with winner getting the other 1 or 2 seed.

The 4 through 6 are tied, but Braves are 10-2 in the head-to-head between the 3 due to a 6-0 series sweep over the Giants and 4-2 series over the Cards, who they must play again.

Here are the standings before the Cards-Nats series, with every team at least a 0 for no games out of the last wild card spot.

Here are the after standings with the Cards win bumbing 4 teams out of the playoffs with minus signs. The Nats are in last at 2 games out (-2) while the Cubs, Reds and Padres are 1 game out (the Padres still need to play the Giants, so this could flip).