Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Statis-Pro Baseball, Value Add Basketball as of Exam Week

The light college basketball week with most students in exams let me rank the 4,003 college players to take the court so far (www.valueaddbasketball.com), as well as project the 2019 playing cards for all 1,088 MLB players and play them against each other in the version of the Statis-Pro baseball game I invented. Google Alert pushed out my story on the CBS 247 site below. 



I appreciate those who follow my updates on my blog at www.pudnersports.com and the @valueaddsports Facebook.

In baseball, you can sort all players by pro team or by their nation and then play them in this free Statis-Pro game. Despite it being DECEMBER more than 1,100 people from the Dominican Republic clicked on this blog detailing how the Dominican Republic went 21-9 to dominate the 6-nation league I just played. That list of the 1,088 player cards also includes what ERA or OPS I project each player would have in 2019 if they were playing in a neutral park. While noone is close to Mike Trout (1.056 projected park neutral OPS) and Chris Sale (2.49 projected ERA) as the best batter and pitcher, the Dodgers seem close to getting the second best batter (Bryce Harper projected 0.923 OPS) and the Mets already landed the second best pitcher (Edwin Diaz projected 2.68 ERA) in my rankings.

In basketball, I not only ranked the 4,003 players who have taken the court, but also bounced that list against the thousands of projections I made for each player this summer, and this list includes the 114 players who projected to improve their teams by between two and eight points a game but have not played yet. If any Athletic Department contacts getting this email can help note if each player is just sitting out the first semester or is in fact not playing the year, please note it on the sheet or email back.  For those of you not familiar with Value Add Basketball Rankings, just click here for explanations at Sports IllustratedESPNNBC SportsFox Sports) or click www.valueaddbasketball.com to sort all 4000+ players.

I get asked why the only sports I write about and calculate are baseball and basketball. I had a soccer daughter and son (college scholarship and all-state honorable mention respectively), have a daughter and son on D1 track scholarships, believe hockey is the best sport to attend live, and go to Auburn football games a few miles away. The fact is I do not have time to go to many games, and pro baseball and college basketball are two sports with enough stats for me to develop systems to figure out who is best in an hour every couple of weeks just by running programs. Rating 4,000+ basketball players and 1,000+ baseball players takes as long as it would to run the same program on 10 of each - and I can't spend hours watching the other sports to develop the same level of understanding.

Anyone can use any of my basketball rankings or free baseball game instructions and cards, and in fact I appreciate references to Value Add Sports or even calls at 404.606.3163. While hundreds of people do read these sports updates, tens of thousands receive the updates on reforming politics at www.takeback.orgso there is a little overlap but not much and of course email back if you want to be added or taken off either list. I was actually giving a speech on political reform to 100+ at an Ohio Rotary last week and was pleasantly surprised when the person doing the introduction told the gathering they should really all be reading www.pudnersports.com! Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays and other celebrations you observe as we get ready for a great 2019 for all.


Thursday, December 6, 2018

21-9 Dominican Republic Wins Season; Venezuela Up 1-0 in Best of 7

 Learn to play Statis-Pro Baseball in 5 minutes by clicking here.

Game 1 - Venuezuela 3, Dominican Republic 1 in 10 innings. Cleveland Indians' starters Carrasco and Salazar threw competing shut out gems, and Venezuelan closer Vazquez struck out Soto and Ozuna with Ramirez on third with the winning run in the bottom of the 9th. With both teams' top relievers spent, Acuna drilled a 3-run homer off Neris in the top of the 10th to give Venezuela a one game to none lead over the regular season champions in the best-of-seven.





Final Standings

All-Star TeamWinsLossesGBAve. RunsRA(tiebreaker)
Dom Republic21906.23.1
Puerto Rico151524.53.6
Venezuela161433.72.8
Canada121853.96.2
Cuba111983.35.3
Japan151564.65.0

3 final regular season series.

1. Venezuela entered 11-13 but beat Cuba 8-2 (counts as a 3 game sweep because 5+ run win margin) to go to 14-13, then 3-0 in game 2 to make their final record 16-14 in the round robin, and then had to wait to see if Puerto Rico would catch then for the last playoff spot.

2. If Canada wins both games over the Dominican Republic by at least 5 runs then they go to the playoffs with a 17-13 record the Dominican Republic is eliminated. In any of the other scenarios the Dominican Republic is in the playoff and will face either Puerto Rico or Venezuela. (Paxton and Taillon vs Salazar and Severino) UPDATE: After 4 inning scoreless pitching duel between Canadian Paxton (who just went from the Mariners to the Yankees) and Salazar for the Dominion Republic, K Marte singled in the 5th and 10 of the next 17 Dominican Republic batters scored to make it 10-0 after six innings en route to a 12-3 sweep. Ramirez stroked a 2-out, 8th inning homer in the second game with Jansen ready to come in if anyone reached base, giving the Dominican Republic a 6-5 win that capped a dominant 21-9 final record to win the division by 5 games while doubling their opponents scoring 6.2 - 3.1 runs per game.

3. If Puerto Rico finishes 3-3 or better vs Japan, or if they finish 2-4 but hold Japan to 5 or fewer total runs then they are the other playoff team. If not, then Venezuela is the other playoff team. (Berrios and J Lopez vs Ohtani and Darvish). UPDATE: Ohtani almost single-handedly eliminated Puerto Rico with a complete game 1-hitter in a 4-0 win, then scored 3 runs in a 9-2 finale to credit Japan with a 5-1 record for the series, and leave them tied with Puerto Rico at 15-15, clinching the playoffs for 16-14 Venezuela.

Added note: Ironically I was playing off a Statis-Pro baseball tournament to see if Venezuelan all-stars or any country could catch the loaded Dominican Republic team, when I heard the tragic news. The caskets for Jose Castillo, who I assumed was one of the best lefties in the game before I realized it was the former Astros infielder, and slugger Luis Valbueno were being carried across a baseball diamond.  Valbuenas put the Astros on the verge of the 2015 World Series with this 2-run homer off the otherwise unhittable Johnny Cueto (his card that year with huge power 6 home run numbers and many walks and hit by pitch for a great ops in the toughest hitters park of the last few years). They were killed in an apparent gang attack in their car. RIP
Original Story on Standings Prior to Final Series

The following are the records in the round robin of international All-Star teams being played via Statis-Pro Baseball. The 2019 Statis-Pro baseball cards can be sorted by MLB team and used to play the free Statis-Pro baseball game, however in the off season we sorted by birth place and picked all-stars from each region. Learn to play Statis-Pro Baseball in 5 minutes by clicking here.


Here is each team's Game Log against each opponent. The team is listed, then which pitcher started for them, how many runs they score, if they were awarded 0, 1, 2 or 3 WINS for the game, the opponents pitcher, runs allowed, and how many losses they were awarded for the game. For example, Canada beat Cub 4-3 and gets credit for winning a "series" 2 games to 1. They lost to Cub 2-4 and are credited with losing that "series" 1-2. They beat Japan 11-2 and because that was by at least a 5-run margin it counts as a 3 games to none sweep in that series.


TeamStarterRunsWinsOpponentStarterRALossesHighlights
CanadaPivetta42CubaE. Ramirez31Simmons 2-run homer in 8th was only HR and rallied Canada from 3-2 deficit
CanadaTaillon21CubaJurado42Taillon left in 8th with 2-0 lead; Puig's 3-run GW homer in 9th
CanadaPaxson113JapanDarvish20Darvish 0 IP 9R, Paxson 9 IP 2R.
CanadaSoroko32JapanOhtani01Gregorius homers twice, Soroko threw Jansen combine for shutout.
CanadaPaxton50Puerto RicoBerrios193When Paxton ran out of endurance with a 5-2 lead in the 5th, Puerto Rico exploded for a record 11-run 6th inning capped by Molina's grandslam
CanadaSoroko21Puerto RicoCotton52Soroko and Cotton battled to 1-1 pitchers duel into the 7th before Puerto Rico beat up on Canada's pen.
CanadaPavetti31VenezuelaE.Rodriguez72Altuve 3-run homer, double and single
CanadaTaillon11VenezuelaCarrasco42Altuve 2-run homer in 3rd was game-winner, but Simmons chased Carrasco with 2nd double and third hit in 5th, and bull pen wrapped up win (Vazquez save)
CubaE. Ramirez31CanadaPivetta42Simmons 2-run homer in 8th was only HR and rallied Canada from 3-2 deficit
CubaJurado42CanadaTaillon21Taillon left in 8th with 2-0 lead; Puig's 3-run GW homer in 9th
CubaE Ramirez40Dom RepublicC Martinez123Polanco, Soto and Santana all homered in 7-run 3rd, then Polanco hit another one in 5th.
CubaJurado11Dom RepublicSalazar52Ozuna homered twice and Salazar gave up 1 run in 6 innings
CubaElias41JapanTanaka72Kang and Choi homered for second straight game
CubaUrias62JapanDarvish51Chapman ran it to 15 batters faced with no runners allowed to save game despite Ohtani hitting 1 o 4 homers for Japan, and tripling and scoring
CubaElias42Puerto RicoCotton21Chapman perfect out of pen to strand runners for win.
CubaUrias31Puerto RicoBerrios52Correa & Hernandez back-to-back homers in 1st then Berrios 6 IP, 1 R
Dom RepublicC Martinez123CubaE Ramirez40Polanco, Soto and Santana all homered in 7-run 3rd, then Polanco hit another one in 5th.
Dom RepublicSalazar52CubaJurado11Ozuna homered twice and Salazar gave up 1 run in 6 innings
Dom RepublicL Castillo123JapanRyu20Franco (2 HR, 3 of 4) led an 18-hit attack as DR batted .490 with an OPS of 1.908 during the last 11 innings of the series.
Dom RepublicSeverino31JapanTanaka624 of last 7 DR batters had hits (1b, 2 2b, HR by Franco) before Colomne ended rally by inducing DP; Kang & Wong hoered in 6th for Japan for 4-0 lead
Dom RepublicL Castillo52Puerto RicoTeheran21L Castillo took a shutout into the 8th, an Cano and Santana combined for back-to-back hits 3 times including a triple and homer in the 6th.
Dom RepublicSeverino32Puerto RicoJ Lopez21One Cleveland Indian for each team, Lindor and Ramirez, homered as well as a single-steal-score inning, and Ozuna's 9th inning 2 out homer off Diaz led to the 13 inning win.
Dom RepublicMartinez01VenezuelaSenzatela42Senzatela allowed just 3 singles and a walk in 8.2 innings before Vizciano wrapped up shutout. Acuna 3 of 5 with homer and double.
Dom RepublicSalazar42VenezuelaMarquez21DR compiled a "cycle 6th inning" with homer by Soto, then 3b by Ozuna, then doubel by Sanchez & single by K Marte, and pen only allowed 3 of last 16 to reach
JapanDarvish20CanadaPaxson113Darvish 0 IP 9R, Paxson 9 IP 2R.
JapanOhtani01CanadaSoroko32Gregorius homers twice, Soroko threw Jansen combine for shutout.
JapanDarvish51CubaUrias62Chapman ran it to 15 batters faced with no runners allowed to save game despite Ohtani hitting 1 o 4 homers for Japan, and tripling and scoring
JapanTanaka72CubaElias41Kang and Choi homered for second straight game
JapanRyu20Dom RepublicL Castillo123Franco (2 HR, 3 of 4) led an 18-hit attack as DR batted .490 with an OPS of 1.908 during the last 11 innings of the series.
JapanTanaka62Dom RepublicSeverino314 of last 7 DR batters had hits (1b, 2 2b, HR by Franco) before Colomne ended rally by inducing DP; Kang & Wong hoered in 6th for Japan for 4-0 lead
JapanOhtani62VenezuelaMarquez51Ho Kang hits 9th inning grandslam to show Venezuela
JapanRyu52VenezuelaSenzatela41Choo's 2nd 2-run homer of game in 12th inning
Puerto RicoBerrios193CanadaPaxton50When Paxton ran out of endurance with a 5-2 lead in the 5th, Puerto Rico exploded for a record 11-run 6th inning capped by Molina's grandslam
Puerto RicoCotton52CanadaSoroko21Soroko and Cotton battled to 1-1 pitchers duel into the 7th before Puerto Rico beat up on Canada's pen.
Puerto RicoBerrios52CubaUrias31Correa & Hernandez back-to-back homers in 1st then Berrios 6 IP, 1 R
Puerto RicoCotton21CubaElias42Chapman perfect out of pen to strand runners for win.
Puerto RicoJ Lopez21Dom RepublicSeverino32One Cleveland Indian for each team, Lindor and Ramirez, homered as well as a single-steal-score inning, and Ozuna's 9th inning 2 out homer off Diaz led to the 13 inning win.
Puerto RicoTeheran21Dom RepublicL Castillo52L Castillo took a shutout into the 8th, an Cano and Santana combined for back-to-back hits 3 times including a triple and homer in the 6th.
Puerto RicoJ Lopez42VenezuelaCarrasco11PR greated Rondon with triple, single, homer by E Hernandez, Baez and Rosario to break up 1-1 pitchers duel in the 6th.
Puerto RicoTeheran42VenezuelaE Rodriguez01Teheran 6.2 scoreless and Guerrero and Rios finished combined shutout
VenezuelaCarrasco42CanadaTaillon11Altuve 2-run homer in 3rd was game-winner, but Simmons chased Carrasco with 2nd double and third hit in 5th, and bull pen wrapped up win (Vazquez save)
VenezuelaE.Rodriguez72CanadaPavetti31Altuve 3-run homer, double and single
VenezuelaMarquez21Dom RepublicSalazar42DR compiled a "cycle 6th inning" with homer by Soto, then 3b by Ozuna, then doubel by Sanchez & single by K Marte, and pen only allowed 3 of last 16 to reach
VenezuelaSenzatela42Dom RepublicMartinez01Senzatela allowed just 3 singles and a walk in 8.2 innings before Vizciano wrapped up shutout. Acuna 3 of 5 with homer and double.
VenezuelaMarquez51JapanOhtani62Ho Kang hits 9th inning grandslam to show Venezuela
VenezuelaSenzatela41JapanRyu52Choo's 2nd 2-run homer of game in 12th inning
VenezuelaCarrasco11Puerto RicoJ Lopez42PR greated Rondon with triple, single, homer by E Hernandez, Baez and Rosario to break up 1-1 pitchers duel in the 6th.
VenezuelaE Rodriguez01Puerto RicoTeheran42Teheran 6.2 scoreless and Guerrero and Rios finished combined shutout

League rules

We decided to use these rules to fairly distribute the number of innings each pitcher on the staff can pitch. (as noted above, if a team wins a series by at least 5 runs without going extra innings they are credited with a 3-game sweep, but otherwise a 2 game to 1.) All match-ups are two game series.

Starting pitchers. In each two-game series, each team pitches either ace and 4th best starter OR 2nd and 3rd best starter to avoid one team having their 3rd and 4th pitcher face the 1st and 2nd best pitcher from another team.

If SR runs out for pitcher he can finish inning with no reduction. Through the 6th inning he can pitch one more inning with a PB reduced by 1.

Relievers pitch 1 inning every 2-game series with following and can also finish inning if RR runs out BUT with relievers reduce PB by 1 as soon as RR hits 0. If reliever comes in during an inning they can EITHER finish the inning OR go into the next inning with a PB reduced by 1 for that inning BUT in that case they must come out after 4 total batters faced.

To keep from running out of pitchers, we never reduce a pitcher below a PB2-5, and if a team trails by at least 5 runs they can leave their worst remaining pitcher in as long as they want, but pitching as a PB: 2-5. Every team can pitch an unlimited number of innings with the "Extra Pitcher" and his PB2-5 line.





Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Value Add top 5 players in each conference

We debut the 2018-2019 Value Add Basketball rankings with more than 4000 players rated. You can click here to sort all players, and below are the top five players to date in each conference. Congrats to Cal Baptist and North Alabama for getting player's in their conference top fives in their first month at the D1 level.

ConfConf RnkNatl RnkPlayerTeamValue Add v5.0 Pts/Game
A10112Javon Bess #3St. Louis10.29
A10266Jon Axel Gudmundsson #3Davidson7.86
A103105Jeff Dowtin #11Rhode Island7.02
A104110Charlie Brown #2St. Joseph's6.95
A105121Luwane Pipkins #2Massachusetts6.83
ACC12Zion Williamson #1Duke11.94
ACC210Tyus Battle #25Syracuse10.43
ACC318De'Andre Hunter #12Virginia9.84
ACC425Nickeil Alexander-Walker #4Virginia Tech9.53
ACC526Ebuka Izundu #15Miami FL9.37
AE1107Anthony Lamb #3Vermont6.98
AE2179Ernie Duncan #20Vermont6.04
AE3227Joe Sherburne #13Maryland Baltimore Co5.64
AE4280Stef Smith #0Vermont5.25
AE5337Akwasi Yeboah #15Stony Brook4.96
Amer150Markis McDuffie #1Wichita St.8.26
Amer2140Corey Davis #5Houston6.51
Amer3141Terrell Allen #2Central Florida6.46
Amer4178Shizz Alston #10Temple6.05
Amer5182Aubrey Dawkins #15Central Florida6.04
ASun1139Noah Horchler #0North Florida6.52
ASun2148Garrison Mathews #24Lipscomb6.32
ASun3162Eli Pepper #22Lipscomb6.15
ASun4304Zach Cooks #4NJ Inst of Technology5.1
Asun5533Jamari Blackmon #3North Alabama3.95
B10114Lamar Stevens #11Penn St.10.08
B10216Ethan Happ #22Wisconsin9.97
B10317Juwan Morgan #13Indiana9.91
B10422Ignas Brazdeikis #13Michigan9.57
B10528Jordan Murphy #3Minnesota9.26
B1213Dean Wade #32Kansas St.11.94
B1229Dedric Lawson #1Kansas10.46
B12311Lagerald Vick #24Kansas10.36
B12415Tristan Clark #25Baylor10
B12521Christian James #0Oklahoma9.67
BE14Jessie Govan #15Georgetown11.58
BE27Markus Howard #0Marquette10.69
BE38Shamorie Ponds #2St. John's10.56
BE413Myles Powell #13Seton Hall10.24
BE530Sam Hauser #10Marquette9.08
BSky123Michael Oguine #0Montana9.57
BSky291Jerrick Harding #10Weber St.7.27
BSky3154Jesse Hunt #34Eastern Washington6.23
BSky4299Cameron Tyson #5Idaho5.12
BSky5300Sayeed Pridgett #4Montana5.11
BSth151Chris Clemons #3Campbell8.25
BSth273Christian Keeling #11Charleston Southern7.75
BSth381Jahaad Proctor #13High Point7.5
BSth4142Scottie James #31Liberty6.39
BSth5317Carlik Jones #1Radford5.05
BW1172Khalil Ahmad #14Cal St. Fullerton6.09
BW2348Dikymbe Martin #15UC Riverside4.88
BW3350Mark Crowe #5Cal Poly4.86
BW4449Robert Cartwright #3UC Irvine4.32
BW5564Jackson Rowe #34Cal St. Fullerton3.81
CAA135Justin Wright-Foreman #3Hofstra8.73
CAA261Grant Riller #1Charleston7.93
CAA375Eric Carter #5Delaware7.6
CAA4147Jordan Roland #12Northeastern6.32
CAA5150Nathan Knight #13William & Mary6.28
CUSA134Ahmad Caver #4Old Dominion8.85
CUSA259Zachary Simmons #24North Texas8.09
CUSA369Brian Beard #4Florida International7.77
CUSA4106Charles Bassey #23Western Kentucky7
CUSA5200Tyree Griffin #55Southern Mississippi5.86
Horz183Camron Justice #5IUPUI7.45
Horz286Drew McDonald #34Northern Kentucky7.43
Horz3190Tarkus Ferguson #4Illinois Chicago5.98
Horz4241Antoine Davis #0Detroit5.49
Horz5277Cole Gentry #31Wright St.5.26
Ivy127Matt Morgan #10Cornell9.34
Ivy238Devin Cannady #3Princeton8.59
Ivy3157Jordan Bruner #23Yale6.18
Ivy4204Justin Bassey #20Harvard5.83
Ivy5298Danilo Djuricic #30Harvard5.12
MAAC168Dimencio Vaughn #14Rider7.81
MAAC2173Landon Taliaferro #25Fairfield6.08
MAAC3183Jalen Pickett #22Siena6.03
MAAC4305Marvin Prochet #11Niagara5.1
MAAC5336Dominic Robb #32Niagara4.96
MAC180Seth Dugan #50Western Michigan7.52
MAC2108Levi Bradley #42Northern Illinois6.97
MAC3109Justin Turner #10Bowling Green6.96
MAC4116CJ Massinburg #5Buffalo6.88
MAC5143Jimond Ivey #0Akron6.36
MEAC139Jermaine Marrow #2Hampton8.52
MEAC2156Damni Applewhite #35South Carolina St.6.18
MEAC3189RJ Cole #2Howard5.98
MEAC4352Randy Miller #11North Carolina Central4.86
MEAC5418Malik Maitland #1Bethune Cookman4.51
MVC1135Tyreke Key #11Indiana St.6.56
MVC2155Cameron Krutwig #25Loyola Chicago6.21
MVC3159Phil Fayne #10Illinois St.6.17
MVC4225Eric McGill #4Southern Illinois5.64
MVC5271Jarred Dixon #11Missouri St.5.3
MWC133Caleb Martin #10Nevada8.95
MWC264Sam Merrill #5Utah St.7.88
MWC392Deshon Taylor #21Fresno St.7.25
MWC4100Justin James #1Wyoming7.04
MWC5101Cody Martin #11Nevada7.03
NEC163Keith Braxton #13St. Francis PA7.88
NEC2296Darnell Edge #1Fairleigh Dickinson5.12
NEC3454Tyler Kohl #1Central Connecticut4.27
NEC4511Xzavier Malone-Key #5Fairleigh Dickinson4.04
NEC5577Chauncey Hawkins #4St. Francis NY3.76
OVC119Ja Morant #12Murray St.9.83
OVC231Nick Mayo #10Eastern Kentucky9.06
OVC397Dylan Windler #3Belmont7.11
OVC4136Jason Burnell #14Jacksonville St.6.54
OVC5207Caleb Hollander #10Belmont5.81
P1216Bol Bol #1Oregon10.83
P12229Tres Tinkle #3Oregon St.9.15
P12343Nick Rakocevic #31Southern California8.41
P12460KZ Okpala #0Stanford8.07
P12577Jaylen Nowell #5Washington7.57
Pat1164Kyle Leufroy #2Lehigh6.12
Pat2171Matt Wilson #14Army6.09
Pat3193Pat Andree #31Lehigh5.92
Pat4205Jehyve Floyd #20Holy Cross5.82
Pat5267Max Mahoney #51Boston University5.34
SB132Nijal Pearson #22Texas St.8.98
SB255Zac Cuthbertson #40Coastal Carolina8.15
SB370Ty Cockfield #0Arkansas St.7.77
SB499Jakeenan Gant #23Louisiana7.05
SB5112Malik Benlevi #2Georgia St.6.94
SC15Matt Rafferty #32Furman10.84
SC2125Kyrin Galloway #14North Carolina Greensboro6.8
SC3158Francis Alonso #10North Carolina Greensboro6.18
SC4263Jeromy Rodriguez #11East Tennessee St.5.36
SC5270Djordje Dimitrijevic #0Mercer5.32
SEC11Grant Williams #2Tennessee12.16
SEC237Mark Smith #13Missouri8.6
SEC341Chuma Okeke #5Auburn8.45
SEC479Quinndary Weatherspoon #11Mississippi St.7.54
SEC582Jared Harper #1Auburn7.46
Slnd1134DeAndre Jones #55Central Arkansas6.56
Slnd2199TJ Atwood #15Lamar5.88
Slnd3233Myles Smith #2Texas A&M Corpus Christi5.56
Slnd4265Nathan Bain #23Stephen F. Austin5.34
Slnd5284Eddy Kayouloud #14Central Arkansas5.23
Sum124Mike Daum #24South Dakota St.9.56
Sum247Trey Burch-Manning #12South Dakota8.34
Sum388Zach Jackson #21Nebraska Omaha7.37
Sum4195Kobe Webster #10Western Illinois5.91
Sum5307John Konchar #55Purdue Fort Wayne5.09
SWAC1246Trayvon Reed #5Texas Southern5.47
SWAC2249Deshaw Andrews #12Alcorn St.5.46
SWAC3281Martaveous McKnight #23Arkansas Pine Bluff5.24
SWAC4623Gary Blackston #3Prairie View A&M3.58
SWAC5719Charles Jackson #1Arkansas Pine Bluff3.26
WAC1180Lesley Varner #11Texas Rio Grande Valley6.04
WAC2213Conner Toolson #11Utah Valley5.78
WAC3259Xavier Bishop #0Maryland Kings Co5.37
WAC4260Jake Toolson #2Utah Valley5.37
WAC5402Milan Acquaah #0Cal Baptist4.59
WCC120Brandon Clarke #15Gonzaga9.72
WCC254Jordan Ford #3St. Mary's8.17
WCC358Isaiah Pineiro #0San Diego8.09
WCC462Zach Norvell #23Gonzaga7.91
WCC574Yoeli Childs #23Brigham Young7.63

Monday, December 3, 2018

Additional History on Dodds On Sports Story on Marquette Value Add Rankings


 The following is some additional background to the Dodds on Sports story that ran on the initial Value Add Basketball rankings of the 2018-2019 season.

Duke has had more seasons (4) with more than two players in the top 1% than all other schools combined going back to the 2001-2002 season in the database. The only other schools were Illinois, Villanova, and Baylor - who was unluckiest of all teams since their 2010 team with three players in the top 1% lost to Duke’s 2010 team with the same. Duke also had three players in the top 1% in 2002 and 2004, and their 2015 team that beat Kentucky is the only team in history to have four players in the top 1%.

On average, just three teams a season have two players in the top 1%. While Travis Diener and Dwyane Wade were clearly the top MU duo of the century, the actually never did in the same season and Diener did not crack the top 1% until 2004 and 2005, the two years after Wade. Both players nearly missed being rated by Value Add as the top player in the nation their final season. In addition to Wade’s 2003 Final Four season, Diener was actually the most valuable player in the country for the 23 games he played - rating ahead of Andrew Bogut, JJ Redick and Chris Paul - with a rating of almost 13.0 Points Above Replacement or Value Add. However, Value Add awards a player a 0.0 value every time his team plays without him, so that weighted him down to a 9.74 for the season, still the 11th best total player but slightly off his junior mark that placed him 7th.

As for the time the Chicago Bulls called, it was Matt Lloyd, who was called the “Bulls eye for talent” in this media story, who called. Lloyd was not surprised I ranked Lazar Hayward in the top 1% his senior year, but was stunned Jimmy Butler ranked as the 5th most valuable player in the country when he averaged just 14.7 points per game. Another time I met him at the Bradley Center because a guy was visiting who Value Add said could be a bench player in the NBA - Norfolk State’s Kyle O’Quinn, who nearly stunned Marquette that night, and did stun Missouri in March Madness as a 15-seed later in the year, and Lloyd moved onto the Orlando Magic and picked him up as well.

It is early in the season, and there is no guarantee where the Hauser brothers and Howard will finish playing on a team with the kind of balance that has been missing for several years (as-in, no one is pushing our bigs around any more and if you want to guard the three-pointer Sacar Anim might just take you to the rim every time. However, sometimes the Value Add calibrations point to potential history to be made, and a duo that ranks even with Butler and Hayward and behind only Wade and Diener, and with a little brother that ranks in the top few freshmen of the century certainly holds out hope.


Sunday, December 2, 2018

Statis Pro Baseball - Instructions to Learn to Play Basic Game in 5 Minutes (video added)

Basic Game


PARTS NEEDED. Playing Statis Pro is as easy as A, B, C. The following 2-part tutorial video (Set up of gameinning video then 13th inning of Dominican Republic vs Puerto Rico) gives a quick 10-minute visual of how you play the game based on the basic instructions in this blog.

A. Player Cards. You can choose players from this sheet of all projected 2019 players that look like this: .



or you can order current cards by clicking here for cards that look like this and contain the same information.


The projected 2019 players include 535 pitchers and 521 batters and are adjusted for ballparks so all players perform as they would in an average ballpark.

B. Two 6-sided dice are rolled to determine whether to use the pitcher's card or the batters card. The range after the pitcher's PB: 2- tells you what dice combination keeps the action on his card. Scherzer needs a roll of 2-8 to keep the action on this card (see both his card and his row above), but in the roll below the combination was a 9 on the blue dice, meaning we use Betts' card.




C. Two 8-sided dice of different colors (or a dice simulator) gives a result of 11-88 to find on that card. In this case, the result is a 27 which falls in the "2B7: 22-27" range meaning a double. Note that if you are using the free row version instead of the card, only the last number of each range is shown, and since "27" is higher than Betts' highest number for a single (1B) is is 21, anything higher than 21 and up to the "33" listed as "2B: 33" is a double. Notice that if the blue dice had resulted in 8 or lower to keep the action on Scherzer's card then that same "27" on the other dice would have been a strikeout since his card shows the range of K: 22-52. Here are the 10 possible results:

  1. 1B = Single 
  2. 2B = Double (only on batters' cards)
  3. 3b = Triple (only on batters' cards)
  4. HR = Home Run (only on batters' cards)
  5. BK = Balk if anyone on base (only on pitchers' cards)
  6. K = Strikeout
  7. W = Walk
  8. HPB = Hit by Pitched Ball (only on pitchers' cards)
  9. WP/PB = Wild Pitch or Passed Ball (only on pitchers' cards)
  10. Out = Out - if you do not have a 20-sided die simply record as an "Out" and all runners hold. However, if you do have a 20-sided die, then find the column header that shows what bases are occupied, and go to the die number to determine what kind of out occurred (letters mean Grounder, Double Play, Fly Out or Line Out). On a roll of a 18 or 19 there could be an error, and a 20 is a flyout out to centerfield unless you are playing advanced rules.





If an RHP (Right-handed pitcher) faces an LP or LN (lefthanded batter), then change a roll of 87 or 88 to a single. The same is true if a LHP faces a RP or RN.

However, if an RHP faces a RN or RP, then a roll of 11 or 12 is changed to an out. If a LHP faces an LN or LP it is even harder to get a hit, as any roll of 11 to 15 is a strikeout. Note that SN and SP batters do not have any adjustments no matter if they face a LHP or RHP.

Add Baserunning and Bunt Option (Optional in Basic Game)

Rather than simply having runners advance as many bases as the batter, you can use their speed (OBR/SP of A to E on the card) to try to take extra bases. When trying to take an extra base on a hit, or steal a base, the runner is only out if you roll a "6." On a roll of a 1 through 5, if his OBR or SP is not good enough to take the extra base, then he just stays on the base. An OBR: E cannot try to take an extra base, and a SP: E cannot try to steal.

Just decide which of the three you want to do and roll one 6-sided die instead of all 4 dice.


1 die
Extra Base on hit
Stealing base
Bunting
1
OBR A, B or C Xtra base        
SP AA, A, B or C steals     
Sacrifice, OBR: A batter safe for hit
2
OBR A or B Xtra base
SP AA, A or B steals
Sacrifice
3
OBR A Xtra base
SP AA or A steals
Sacrifice
4
Xtra base only if 2 outs
Only SP AA steals
Foul, use normal hitting
5
Hold base
Holds base
Strikeout
6
OF throws out runner

Out Stealing
Leader Runner out

Once a batter is done hitting, and you decide if you want to try to take an extra base, steal or bunt, then go to the next batter. Click here for advanced rules.


Statis-Pro Baseball: 6 International Teams to Print and Play

You can view and sort Statis-Pro baseball cards based on projected pitching, fielding and batting stats for everyone from upcoming 19 year old rookie Vlad Guerrero to just retired Ichiro. You can sort and update by current major league teams, or any other way you want to group players. As another option, we picked six international all-start teams with suggested line-ups and pitching rotations and inserted them below, so you can print on each of the six teams below for an off season international challenge. Learn to play Statis-Pro Baseball in 5 minutes by clicking here.

Here are the actual season updates.


InternationalStarters ERAPitchLine-ups OPSBat
Overall Rating   Seed
Dominican Republic3.696.50.8128.8
15.41
Venezuela3.478.10.7876.2
14.32
Canada/Netherlands3.974.50.7714.6
9.13
Japan/Korea3.7760.7270
6.04
Cuba4.6100.7734.8
4.85
Puerto Rico4.560.40.7502.4        2.76

The following are the actual player cards, listed in row form. The first nine batters for each of these teams are in order our suggested line-up, so for Canada we suggest batting Ozzie Albies first, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. second etc. Several bench players are listed next. Then we list our suggestion for four players in a pitching rotation, then the relievers are listed from best to worst. We will post a breakdown of the US-born players separately.









Statis-Pro: 8 USA Teams and 6 International Teams Compete

The 2019 Statis-Pro baseball cards can be sorted by MLB team and used to play the free Statis-Pro baseball game, however in the off season we sorted by birth place and picked all-stars from each region. Learn to play Statis-Pro Baseball in 5 minutes by clicking here.

For the American-born players, we picked the best players from the three states that produce the most talent - Florida, California and Texas - and then grouped the other teams by which of the big five college conferences is the big one where they are born. For example, Justin Verlander played for Old Dominion University but because he was born in my home town of Richmond, VA I consider him in the ACC region so he is there ace.

I then divided the non-USA players by country, with the Dominican Republic and Venezuela being the biggest producers of talent in that order and Puerto Rico and Cuba needed just a few players to complete their rosters. I needed to group Japan and South Korea for an Asian level team and did get a couple of Asian-Americans born in Hawaii to complete their roster as they are pitching rich but hitting light, and finally I grouped a Northern team from north of the 50th parallel made up mainly of players born in Canada or the Netherlands and let them have a few players from the Netherlands one former island in the Caribbean as well.

To give an idea of how strong every region is, I graded all 14 teams based on the OPS of their starting line-up, and the ERA of their starting rotation - giving the best a "10" and the worst a "0" in each category so each team could have an overall rating of 0 to 20.

Florida edged out California as the top overall team with a 3.20 ERA and 0.809 OPS for 18.5 out of 20 points. However, California had the best batting with an 0.823 OPS to be taken as my 2nd seed. Florida will get the Pac12 in a 1 v 8 series in my tournament, as the Pac12 really was cheated since the California players, and then California will get the Big Ten in a 1 vs 7 "Rose Bowl" type series:

All-Star TeamStarters ERAPitching 0-10Line-ups OPSBatting 0-10DivisionOverall RatingSeed
Florida3.20100.8098.5USA18.51
California3.4980.82310USA17.92
SEC3.249.70.7805.5USA15.23
Texas3.805.80.7967.2USA12.94
Big 124.024.20.8108.6USA12.85
ACC3.726.30.7866.1USA12.56
Big Ten4.014.30.8058.1USA12.47
Pac 123.795.80.7290.2USA6.08

On the International side the Dominican Republic and Venezuela are the class of the world, not producing quite as high marks as the teams of Californians and Floridians, but about as much as the entire SEC states outside of Florida. On the international front, I'm actually playing off a mini season.


InternationalStarters ERAPitching 0-10Line-ups OPSBatting 0-10DivisionOverall RatingSeed
Dominican Republic3.696.50.8128.8International15.41
Venezuela3.478.10.7876.2International14.32
Canada/Netherlands3.974.50.7714.6International9.13
Japan/Korea3.7760.7270International6.04
Cuba4.6100.7734.8International4.85
Puerto Rico4.560.40.7502.4International2.76