Friday, March 22, 2019

32 Team All-Conference March Madness Tournament Via Value Add GAme

Latest Note: Big 12 matched ACCs 30-point margin with 96-66 win over the SWAC behind 24 from Dean Wade, who actually could not play for K-State in March Madness due to injury.

The Value Add Basketball Game includes the 10 player cards for each of the 32 conferences as well as instructions for the game. All you need is four dice to simulate each players ability to get the ball and get shots off, defense, rebound, hit from the line and inside and outside the arc, dish out great assists, guard the ball, steal and block shots adjusted for the level of competition they faced.

While we also calculated cards for every player who played at least 8 minutes a game for all 353 teams, we decided to start with a tournament pitting all 32 All-Conference teams during March Madness. 

After the ACC, SEC and Big East advanced to the Conference "Sweet 16" the game between Murray State's Ja Morant of the Ohio Valley Conference (OVC) and Buffalo's CJ Massinburg of the Mid-American was a back-and-forth affair.

The following is the bracket, followed by a photo and stats from the OVC vs. MAC game.


SeedEast Region1st Round2nd RoundElite 8SemiChamp
1Atlantic Coast ConferenceACC 90-60
8Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
2nd Round
4Ivy LeagueTBD
5Patriot League
East Regional
2Big East ConferenceBE 97-73
7Northeast Conference
2nd Round
3Atlantic 10 ConferenceA10 82-68
6America East Conference
Semi
SeedMidwest Region
1Big Ten ConferenceTBD
8Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
2nd Round
4Conference USATBD
5Missouri Valley Conference
Midwest Regional
2Mid American ConferenceMAC 88-82
7Ohio Valley Conference
2nd Round
3Mountain West ConferenceTBD
6Horizon League
Title Game
SeedWest Region
1Big 12 ConferenceB12 96-66
8Southwestern Athletic Conference
2nd Round
4Western Athletic ConferenceTBD
5Big West Conference
West Regional
2Pac 12 ConferenceTBD
7Big Sky Conference
2nd Round
3West Coast ConferenceTBD
6Summit League
Semi
SeedSouth Region
1Southeastern ConferenceSEC 83-71
8Southland Conference
2nd Round
4Sun Belt ConferenceTBD
5Big South Conference
South Regional
2American Athletic ConferenceTBD
7Colonial Athletic Association
2nd Round
3Southern ConferenceTBD
6Atlantic Sun Conference

Here is photo of what the game looks like if you print the cards from the google doc, and then fill in the scoring sheet during the game.  was the actual scoring in the OVC vs. Mid American game.





The following was the actual scoring of each All-Conference player from the sheet above. We only record and "R" for contested rebounds where the cards determine the battle for the rebound.We circle an "R" on the occasions where the best rebounder on the court at that time grabs the rebound from everyone else, but normally it is two players at the same position battling for the rebound.



All-Ohio Valley
Team
Pts

All-Mid American
Team
Pts
Morant
Murray St.
16
PG
Turner
Bowling Green
11
Taylor
Austin Peay
10
SG
Massinberg
Buffalo
25
Brown
Murray St.
3
SF
Ivey
Akron
4
Windler
Belmont
15
PF
Thompson
Eastern Michigan
11
Muszynski
Belmont
10
C
Dugan
Western Michigan
8
2nd Team
Team
Pts

2nd Team
Team
Pts
Murphy
Belmont
7
PG
German
Northern Illinois
12
Buchanan
Murray St.
9
SG
Graves
Buffalo
5
Burnell
Jacksonville St.
4
SF
Teague
Ball St.
10
Dove
Tenn Martin
5
PF
Navigato
Toledo
0
Mayo
Eastern Kentucky
3
C
Knapke
Toledo
2
Totals

82



88

In this game Justin Turner fouled out trying to guard Morant as Morant tied the game at the free throw line 63-63 with just 14 possessions left for each team (a full game includes 33 possession for each team each half).  However, CJ Massinburg went on a 6-0 personal run to make it 73-67 with 8 possessions left, and then James Thompson grabbed two rebounds away from everyone else on the court twice down the stretch to wrap up the game.

Other games:

SEC 83: Herro KY 16, Harper AU 13, Williams TN 11, Washington KY 8, Hall AL 3; backups Okeke AU 10, Gafford 10, Waters 6, Mays 4, Silva 2.
Southland 71: Greenwood SELa 19, Maxwell AbC 16, Franklin AbC 10, Harris SFA 8, Delaney SH 1; backups Ricks 5, Garth 7, DuBose 6, Mitchell 1, Delaney 0.

Big East 97: Howard MU 24, Powell SH 19, Govan Gtn 11, Ponds StJ 6, Hauser MU 2; backups Booth Vill 13, Jones Xav 7, Krampeli Cr 6, Figerous StJ 5, Pascall Vil 4.
NEC 73: Saunders Wag 13, Flowers LIU 9, Baxton StF 9, Edge FD 8, Hoehn SH 5; backups Anosike 9, Jordan StF 7, LaRose SH 5, Backmon SF 4, Jenkins FD 4.

ACC 90: Hunter UVA 15, Williamson Duke 13, Barrett Duke 12, Blackshear VT 12, Reed Clem 5; backups Thomas Clem 15, Alexander-Walker VaT 10, Johnson UNC 4, Guy UVa 3, Jerome UVa 1.
MEAC 60: Pope Bethune 16, Cole Howard 12, Jamerson Nolf St 6, Appletwhite SC St 2, Ravenel FL A&M 0; backups Williamson Howard 8, Jackson NC A&T 7, Thomas Norf St 6, Maitland Beth C 2, Davis NC Central 1. (note: Norfolk State players stunned Alabama in NIT)

Atlantic Ten 82: Santos-Silva VCU 17, Gudmundsson David. 16, Toppin  Dayt 12, Bess StL 5, Dowton RI 5; backups Brown StJ 7, Cunningham Day 7, Evans VCU 5, Vann VCU 5, Osunniyi StB 3.
American East 68: Duncan VT 12, Lamb VT 8, Sherburne UMBC 8, Yeboah SB 7, Lynch Hrt 7; backups Gantz UMass-Low 8, Lutele UMass 7, Blagojevic Hart 6, Healy Alb 3, Smith VT 1.

Big-12  96: Wade (K-State) 24, Culver  (Tex Tech)  15, Brown (K-State) 11, Lawson (Kansas) 10), Moretti (Tex Tech) 2; Back-ups: Owens (Tex Tech) 12, Haliburton (Iowa St) 9, Shayot (Iowa St) 5, Bane (TCU) 4, Dotson (Kansas) 4. Fouled Out: Lawson and Owens.
SWAC 66: Blackson (PV A&M) 15, Combs (Tex South) 11, McKnight (Ark PB) 11, Doss (Ark PB) 6, McKinnis (Jack St) 1. Back-up: Daniels (Al State) 6, Smith (Grambling) 6, Andrus (Prarie View) 4, Patterson (PV) 4, Butler (Tex Southern) 2.


Thursday, March 21, 2019

5 of our 8 Brackets Topped All CBS Experts

Wildcard Brackets Hot; Led by Those Based on NBA Talent and Defense

Through the first day of basketball, five of eight brackets we published in this Wildcard post registered more first day wins than any of the CBS crew, and were rated as red hot in ESPN's bracket tracking.

The bracket based on the "Healtiest" team was correct on 14 of 16 Thursday games to land in the 97th percentile of the millions of brackets submitted.

However, the brackets based on which teams the www.valueaddbasketball.com site calculates has the most NBA talents and the bracket based on the teams with the best DEFENSIVE Value Add rankings picked 13 of 16 correctly and have the highest ceiling with a total of 1890 total points based on ESPN's calculations of how man possible points the bracket could yield.

The Value Add bracket adjusted by where games are played, and the one weighted toward the most experienced point guards also was correct on 13 of 16 picks.

The four CBS commentators doing the night's wrap up revealed that their four experts on set all had either 11 or 12 correct.

That was the same as the bracket based purely on Value Add ratings with none of the adjustments above (12 of 16) and the purely subjective picks (11 of 16).

the one bracket rated "ice cold" by ESPN was the bracket based on which team had the best player on the court, which was correct only 10 of 16 games for 100 points - or the 19th percentile.

The following is the calculation by ESPN of each of the brackets, what percentile that places each bracket, and how many total MAX points the bracket could yield (lower if teams picked in later rounds were already eliminated.


BRACKET NAMEPTSPCTMAX
Healthiest Team14097%1760
Pudner's Most NBA Talent13087%1890
Defensive Value Add13087%1890
Adjust Value Add by Venue13087%1850
Experienced Guards13087%1750
Value Add Master12066%1880
Just for Fun Big East/SEC12066%1660
Subjective Picks11037%1770
Best Player on Team10019%1740

The following the actual photo of the ESPN calculations for each of our brackets.


The following shows the average number of wins selected from the millions of brackets this year. For example, Duke is listed on an average of 4.36 lines per bracket, while North Dakota State squad that was listed on an average of 0.05 lines per bracket. They were actually picked on only one in 40 brackets to win the first game, but then a few picked them to go deeper into the tournament.

Fans who submitted brackets should understand that they should root against teams that they pick IF most fans picked them in more games than they did. For example, if someone picked North Carolina to win only two games and they were losing the second game, the person who put them on only two lines would want them to lose since it will hurt their average competition more because they were listed on an average of 3.75 wins. Yes, the person doesn't get their second win from North Carolina, but their competition is eliminated from getting wins in the third and fourth round, which count for many more points than the 10 points per win in the opening two days.

The following table shows if the team has been eliminated (Done), which team has wins to date, and how many lines the team appeared on in the average bracket.

TeamDone? Wins Ave. Lines/Wins
Duke4.36
North Carolina3.75
Virginia3.33
Gonzaga1 3.12
Tennessee2.83
Kentucky1 2.83
Michigan State1 2.80
Michigan1 2.64
Texas Tech1.97
Houston1.79
Florida St1 1.77
Purdue1 1.68
LSU1 1.65
Virginia Tech1.64
Kansas1 1.52
Villanova1 1.39
Auburn1 1.39
Kansas State1.33
Buffalo1.14
Iowa State1.12
Wisconsin1.05
Mississippi St1.03
Maryland1 0.98
Marquettedone - 0.90
Louisvilledone - 0.86
Cincinnati0.85
Syracusedone - 0.83
Nevadadone - 0.71
Wofford1 0.70
Oregon0.63
Florida1 0.63
Murray State1 0.61
UCF0.59
Ole Miss0.59
Utah State0.56
Oklahoma0.56
Washington0.54
Seton Halldone - 0.53
VCU0.49
Belmontdone - 0.46
Baylor1 0.42
Iowa0.42
Ohio State0.41
Minnesota1 0.40
Saint Mary'sdone - 0.34
Liberty0.32
UC Irvine0.30
Arizona State0.29
New Mexico Stdone - 0.27
Yaledone - 0.25
Saint Louis0.19
Vermontdone - 0.17
Northeasterndone - 0.16
Old Dominiondone - 0.14
Georgia State0.14
N Kentucky0.12
Montanadone - 0.08
Colgate0.08
Bradleydone - 0.08
Abil Christiandone - 0.07
Gardner-Webb0.07
F. Dickinsondone - 0.06
Iona0.06
North Dakota St0.05
Total Games16 63.00

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Bracketology: Prediction for all 63 Winners

I'm getting a lot of last minute calls about the brackets, so please see my explanation for my brackets in this Western Journal piece. If you are up against the Thursday noon Eastern deadline, you can go down the first column for the number of lines/wins I had for each team (e.g. Duke 6 lines for the championship, then one win for VCU, one for Mississippi State, two for Virginia Tech etc.).

SeedEastMy picksValue AddHealthDefExp PGNBAVenueTop Player
1Duke66662446
16North Carolina Central00000000
16North Dakota St.00000000
8VCU11010011
9UCF00101100
5Mississippi St.11111111
12Liberty00000000
4Virginia Tech22225222
13Saint Louis00000000
6Maryland11121110
11Belmont00000002
11Temple00000000
3LSU22212221
14Yale00000000
7Louisville11111100
10Minnesota00000011
2Michigan St.33333333
15Bradley00000000
SeedWestMy picksValue AddHealthDefExp PGNBAVenueTop Player
1Gonzaga44242564
16Fairleigh Dickinson00000000
16Prairie View A&M00000000
8Syracuse11010101
9Baylor00101010
5Marquette21414022
12Murray St.00000100
4Florida St.12121211
13Vermont00000000
6Buffalo11111003
11Arizona St.00000110
11St. John's00000110
3Texas Tech22222221
14Northern Kentucky00000000
7Nevada31001111
10Florida00110000
2Michigan13343332
15Montana00000000
SeedMidwestMy picksValue AddHealthDefExp PGNBAVenueTop Player
1North Carolina24444344
16Iona00000000
8Utah St.11101011
9Washington00010100
5Auburn42222101
12New Mexico St.00000020
4Kansas11111212
13Northeastern00000000
6Iowa St.11101211
11Ohio St.00010000
3Houston32223022
14Georgia St.00000100
7Wofford01111110
10Seton Hall20002003
2Kentucky13332631
15Abilene Christian00000000
SeedSouthMy picksValue AddHealthDefExp PGNBAVenueTop Player
1Virginia55556235
16Gardner Webb00000000
8Mississippi11101111
9Oklahoma00010000
5Wisconsin22022022
12Oregon00200400
4Kansas St.11011111
13UC Irvine00100000
6Villanova21111220
11Saint Mary's00000002
3Purdue12222111
14Old Dominion00000000
7Cincinnati10010101
10Iowa01101010
2Tennessee33333353
15Colgate00000000

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Bracket for Dummies as Seton Hall's Powell and Duke's Williamson Surge

This is my morning email for Selection Sunday ...

Yes, today is not only St. Patrick's Day, but also the day you need to fill out your basketball brackets for the office - which also makes it the one day a year most of you get a sports email from me.

Last night after wading through the Madison Square Garden confetti drop blocks from where the Empire State Building was lit up for the Big East tournament, I interviewed Villanova's Phil Booth about defending the second hottest player in the country on the last second shot that decided the Big East title. I then ran the calculations at www.valueaddbasketball.com (which you can click on to sort by teams) to update the rankings on all 4,000 players and put together the grid below of each team from the March Madness basketball brackets, with explanations and details on my interviews below the table to help you use this to to fill out your brackets even if its the only time all year you pay attention to college basketball.

Team in BracketHighest Ranked PlayerTeam RankNBA RankingLost to Injury NBATop 100Top 400
Abilene Christian396, BJ Maxwell73No NBA-0.55   1
Alabama82, Donta Hall54230.00 412
Arizona St.248, Remy Martin5370.00 6 2
Auburn47, Jared Harper14110.00 623
Belmont15, Dylan Windler43450.00 113
Bradley623, Nate Kennell75No NBA0.00    
Buffalo10, CJ Massinburg20No NBA0.00  15
Cincinnati63, Jarron Cumberland34390.00 214
Clemson16, Marcquise Reed28470.00 122
Colgate539, Jordan Burns70No NBA0.00    
Creighton149, Martin Krampelj47400.00 1 3
Duke1, Zion Williamson130.00 737
Fairleigh Dickinson418, Darnell Edge79No NBA0.00    
Florida127, Kevarrius Hayes3031-0.92 3 5
Florida St.85, Mfiondu Kabengele16170.00 423
Furman3, Matt Rafferty52No NBA0.00  12
Gardner Webb300, David Efianayi76No NBA0.00   1
Georgia St.335, Malik Benlevi67410.00 1 2
Gonzaga6, Brandon Clarke320.00 734
Harvard481, Bryce Aiken69530.00 1  
Houston36, Corey Davis12No NBA0.00  13
Indiana30, Juwan Morgan40300.00 222
Iona374, EJ Crawford77No NBA0.00   1
Iowa183, Joe Wieskamp32380.00 2 4
Iowa St.109, Marial Shayok2624-3.54 3 5
Kansas5, Dedric Lawson448-6.15 513
Kansas St.59, Barry Brown19220.00 314
Kentucky34, Tyler Herro91-0.98 725
Liberty97, Scottie James55No NBA0.00  12
Lipscomb147, Garrison Mathews50No NBA0.00   3
Louisville100, Jordan Nwora21280.00 315
LSU45, Skylar Mays15190.00 424
Marquette18, Markus Howard24270.00 322
Maryland29, Bruno Fernando2290.00 513
Michigan48, Jon Teske6140.00 446
Michigan St.2, Cassius Winston426-2.17 335
Minnesota22, Jordan Murphy4525-0.51 413
Mississippi119, Breein Tyree37360.00 2 3
Mississippi St.31, Quinndary Weatherspoon1760.00 713
Montana343, Ahmaad Rorie71No NBA0.00   2
Murray St.14, Ja Morant46370.00 112
Nevada98, Caleb Martin25150.00 415
New Mexico St.294, Eli Chuha49No NBA0.00   2
North Carolina24, Cameron Johnson540.00 726
North Carolina Central682, Raasean Davis82No NBA0.00    
North Carolina St.224, Torin Dorn33330.00 2 4
North Dakota St.505, Vinnie Shahid78No NBA0.00    
Northeastern178, Jordan Roland56No NBA0.00   3
Northern Kentucky144, Drew McDonald64No NBA0.00   2
Ohio St.129, Kaleb Wesson42No NBA0.00   3
Oklahoma120, Christian James38No NBA0.00   3
Old Dominion124, Ahmad Caver65No NBA0.00   2
Oregon102, Payton Pritchard6810-9.94 7 1
Prairie View A&M761, Gary Blackston81No NBA-1.96    
Purdue46, Carsen Edwards10350.00 215
Saint Louis65, Javon Bess74No NBA-0.88  11
Saint Mary's20, Jordan Ford29No NBA0.00  23
Seton Hall8, Myles Powell48510.00 112
St. Bonaventure168, Kyle Lofton66No NBA0.00   2
St. John's21, Shamorie Ponds6020-0.28 312
Syracuse80, Tyus Battle31160.00 414
TCU40, Desmond Bane5148-1.99 113
Temple84, Shizz Alston58420.00 112
Tennessee4, Grant Williams7130.00 415
Texas60, Jaxson Hayes2750.00 813
Texas Southern330, Jeremy Combs80490.00 1 1
Texas Tech26, Jarrett Culver8320.00 234
UC Irvine302, Jonathan Galloway63No NBA0.00   2
UCF101, Aubrey Dawkins39500.00 1 3
UNC Greensboro131, Isaiah Miller61No NBA0.00   1
UT Arlington424, Brian Warren72No NBA0.00    
Utah St.17, Sam Merrill35No NBA0.00  12
VCU64, Marcus Santos-Silva36520.00 114
Vermont33, Anthony Lamb59No NBA0.00  12
Villanova77, Phil Booth23180.00 415
Virginia7, Kyle Guy2120.00 435
Virginia Tech39, Nickeil Alexander-Walker11290.00 225
Washington74, Matisse Thybulle41210.00 323
Wisconsin13, Ethan Happ13460.00 114
Wofford42, Fletcher Magee18440.00 123
Xavier150, Zach Hankins57340.00 3 3
Yale327, Miye Oni62430.00 1 2
As an example of how to use the table when you pick, let's take the top team Abilene Christian against Duke going through each item from left to right. Abilene's top player BJ Maxwell is the 396th most valuable player (of more than 4,000) based on our www.valueaddbasketball.com ratings, while Duke's Zion Williamson shot way ahead of everyone else again since returning from injury to rank No. 1. The "Team Rank" indicates Duke also has the highest team rating at Value Add of healthy players (we do not count any players injured) while Abilene is ranked 73rd. Next is the NBA ranking, which ranks every NBA prospect on a team from 150 points (Zion gets this as the top ranked prospect) down to 51 for players at least good enough to be considered. Duke ranks third in overall NBA talent behind Kentucky and Gonzaga, while Abilene has no NBA prospects.

Third and perhaps most important is the injury report. A negative numbers shows how much of a team's Value Add is with players they lost for the season, so the bigger the negative number the worse - and Kansas,Oregon and Michigan State are among the teams who lost major players. Finally we list the number of NBA prospects on the team (7 for Duke, none for Abilene), Top 100 players (three for Duke and none for Abilene) and and top 400 players (in the top 10% of all players) which includes seven Duke players and just Maxwell for Abilene. I'm comparing Duke to Abilene party because the Abilene fans were waving signs last night in jest saying Zion was scared of Abilene, but in other cases you might see a match-up that makes you think upset.
 
 
For example, Seton Hall is just 48th based on their team Value Add link, and only 51st in NBA talent based on one prospect Myles Powell. However, Powell is the second hottest player in the country behind Williamson, rising almost 20 spots in the rankings during the Big East tournament and is now the 8th best player in the country, and if you couple on unstoppable player like that on a team that started the year by beating Kentucky and finished by beating Marquette twice and falling just short of beating Villanova for a second time to claim the Big East title.
 
 
After meeting with Powell and doing a story on him a few days ago (see Western Journal story here), I tracked down Villanova's two-time national champion Phil Booth in the locker room last night to ask about the perfect defense he played when Powell got the ball with a few seconds left to try a game-winning shot.
 
 
"We practice contesting and not fouling in those situations for hours and hours. Powell can make ANY shot so you just need to get as tight on him as you can to try to make it as hard as you can," Booth told me, before I asked what he honestly thought would happen when Powell let go of the shot, and he continued. "Man, it looked like it was going in when I turned around." It hit centimeters too deep on the rim and bounced out, the difference between a 75-74 Seton Hall championship and the actual 74-72 Villanova win.
 
 
I will update brackets at www.pudnersports.com or just email back if you want to be added to my normal sports update list or just call 404.606.3163 with any questions.

Have fun with your bracket! - John Pudner