Thursday, July 30, 2020

NIT 2020 Playing Out as 36,000th Visitor to Value Add Basketball Game

Game results continue to be added most recent first - scroll down to "Game Results." Click here for the shorter description of each game.

Thursday night basketball resumed in the bubble and the 36,000th visitor went to our free Value Add Basketball Game. In that light, we shifted for a night from our Statis-Pro basketball league. Using these player cards we already crowned the 2020 NCAA champ (Creighton defeated Duke in title game in tournament in which 37% of games were upsets - better seed went 40-23).  The all-time Champ (Bill Walton's UCLA, which did crush Creighton in a match of the two champions).

We did set up an NIT tournament, but had only played one game (Oklahoma State defeated South Alabama). Obviously the marque teams all played in our NCAA, so looking back at our bracket we decided to play the most evenly matched game. We seeded the 32 teams from 1 to 32 rather than four regions of 8 seeds, and that left 17-seed St. John's visiting 16-seed UConn.

Unlike our NCAA tournaments played at neutral sites, we use the home advantage for NIT games until the Final Four. The home advantage in the game is that the home team can always flip a dice roll of 36 and 66 to their advantage. In this traditional Big East match-up (UConn will return to the Big East this year) the Huskies did get three calls - all missed four calls that hurt St. John's. Caraher misses shot with 3:07 to go in the first half, Heron drove to the hoop with 15:01 to play and missed with a no call, and finally in overtime Dunn tried to break a 76-76 tie and missed after a no call.

Game Results - NIT that might have been (most recent game on top, so far 45% upsets, better seed 6-5)

29-South Dakota State 85, 4-St. Louis 83 (OT). 

The Summit League's South Dakota State overcame a 14-point deficit, 24 fouls including both forwards  fouling out and a monster performance by Jordan Goodwin (29 points, 10 rebounds) to stun St. Louis in overtime. Center Matt Dentlinger scored only 4 points but blocked his 5th shot to prevent a game-winner at the buzzer to force overtime. Douglas Wilson then scored 8 of his 21 points in overtime before fouling out as they scored 17 in overtime for the win.



3-Arkansas 75, 30-Murray State 70

Murray State's Anthony Smith drew 9 fouls including fouling out 3-point specialist Isaiah Joe
To make it 53-46 Murray State. The Racers looked ready to follow-up on their real 1st round NCAA upset of Marquette. However last year Ja Morant was the best player in the court, and as good as Murray State's Tevin Brown (10 points, 7 rebounds), Arkansas' Jimmy Whitt (16 points, 8 rebounds, 2 steals) was top www.valueaddbasketball.com player on the court and he took over in the final 2 minutes to avoid the upset. Whitt had 2 steals and dunk to lead a 6-0 run to end the game with the 75-70 win.



23-Wright St. 72, 10-Memphis 62.

Memphis started the season with potentially the top player in the country in Wiseman and national title hopes, but ended with a 42-point loss to Cincinnati that would have left then in the NIT. Switching to our simulated NIT, it continued downhill with a 1st round NIT loss as the offense could not click despite 13 steals leading to many fast break chances. The Horizon League's Wright State continued Butler's tradition of upsets, dominating underneath with power forward Bill Wampler (18 points, 7 resbounds) and center Loudon Love (15,7) holding their two counterparts to a total of 15 and 11. Love is one of the few players who gets the ball on 3 of 8 die rolls when on the court, a 5,7 or 8.




9-Texas 84, 24-Colgate 82: Texas coach Shaka Smart will only host his former team VCU in the 2nd round because his star Jericho Sims took over in the final minutes including the game-winner buzzer beater. The 44 possessions we play included 13 lead changes and 8 ties. Sims scored with 3:30 left to give Texas a 71-70 lead, then to tie it 73-73 on the next trip, then grabbed an offensive rebound and fed Courtney Ramsey to make it 75-73, then scored again for 77-75 lead for 6 points, and offensive rebound and assist in four trips. When Will Raymond capped his 27-point game with a game-tying 3-pointer to make it 82-82, before Sims beat the buzzer for the 84-82 win.



20-Alabama 77, 13-Notre Dame 68. Alabama overcame 18 turnovers and a bit of a home job at South Bend with a barrage of 3-pointers to advance. On roughly 100 rolls of the 4 dice per game (44 possessions per team plus some offensive rebounds and extra possessions for steals-fast breaks or fouls in the last 9 possessions) there is a one in 36 chance of a bad call favoring the home team that can slip a roll of 36 (foul) and 66 (non foul). The refs missed four Notre Dame fouls, one more bad call than average. However, Bama hit four 3-pointers in their first 6 possessions to take a 32-20 lead and they never trailed behind double digits from their trio of stars in PG Kira Lewis (16 points), SG Jaden Shacelford (18) and John Petty (12).



 15-Syracuse 73, 18-Georgetown 66

 John Thompson's stunning upset in the final game played Syracuse in Syracuse's Manley Field House is so famous that if you start to type Manley Field House in google it will add the rest of Thompson's quote "Manley Field House is Officially Closed." Every game Georgetown trip to the currrent Carrier Dome brings back that memory, but on this game the strength of Syracuse forwards - superstar Elijah Hughes (12 points, 8 rebounds) and Marek Dolezaj (15, 8) dominated their Hoya rivals 27-8 in points and 16-11 in rebounds. With the promising backcourt of James Akinjo and Mac McClung play limited minutes each game based on their injury plagued season the backcourt did not have enough as Syracuse point guard Joseph Girard scored 20 points. Though it was close the whole way, Syracuse never trailed.




 25-VCU 76, 8-Stanford 61

The first big upset of the 2020 NIT started at Stanford with a 13-0 blitz from VCU that made it 33-20 out of the gate.  In a match-up of star shooting guards, VCU's De'Riante Jenkins stole the ball on two of the first four trips, and on two others back-up Corey Douglas grabbed offensive rebounds and on one of the steals Douglas completed a 4-point play off the steal from Jenkins.

The other match-up of big stars featred the two centers with similar last names, as VCU's Marcus Santos-Silva (9 points, 15 rebounds) dominated the boards while Stanford's Oscar da Silva (10 points, 7 rebounds) was strong with four blocked shots. However, the surprise games by Douglas (9 points, 3 rebounds in limited time) and small forward Issac Vann (19 points, 7 rebounds).


The upset brought back memories of VCU's team that Jay Bilas said should never have been invited to the tournament, but made the miracle run to the Final Four. That team is in our great teams in the game, featuring Bradford Burgess. When Burgess played for my alma mater, Benedictine High School, I once watched him help win a battle of two of Virginia's Top 10 teams. Our Cadets beat TC Williams, the inspiration for the movie Remember the Titans, and Burgess teammate and future NBA player Ed Davis had my favorite stat line ever - 30 points, 20 rebounds, 10 blocked shots.



 2-Purdue 74, 31-Merrimack 53

After 2 NIT games that came down to final shots, Purdue dominated as expected behind 7-foot-3 Matt Haarms (12 pts, 9 rebounds, 4 blocks) and the sharp-shooting of Sasha Stefanovic (22 points).

The game was not within 10 points after Stefanovic hit a 3-pointer to make it 44-34 with 16:51 to play. Jurvaris (16 points, 5 steals) led Merrimack, the biggest surprise team of their first season moving up from Division II to Division I and winning the NEC after being picked to finish 11th of 11 teams.


Here are the top players in the NEC.



 1-Xavier 79, 32-North Florida 77

North Florida's Ivan Gandia-Rosa, who just missed Atlantic Sun Value Add Player of the year, came within seconds of upsetting 1-seed Xavier. Having already drawn 5 fouls on Paul Scrugg's, he hit 2 free throws finish with 28 points and lead 77-76 with 16 seconds to play.

Quintin Gooden missed a potential game-winner for Xavier, but Tyrique Jones grabbed the offensive rebound (game-high 9), fed the ball to Naji Marshall who scored the game-winner despite being fouled and hit the free throw to finish with a team-high 15 and deliver the 79-77 win.


Here are the top rated ASun players in the past season.


17-St. John's vs 16-UConn

Here is a picture of the score sheet and five starters for each team, except we accidentally put Mustapha Heron of St. John's on the second line of players even though he is a starter. You can click on and blow up the photo to see the running score and the stats marked for each players points, rebounds, steals, turnovers, blocks and fouls:


The team's players all now come on one sheet so you can cut them into 10 cards or just keep the sheet together.

The fact that St. John's even forced overtime was amazing, since UConn's Christian Vital (19 points, 5 rebounds, 3 steals) dominated for a stretch - on three straight trips hitting a 3-pointer, getting an offensive rebound and kicking out to Gilbert for a 3-pointer and then coming up with a steal and fast break dunk to complete an 8-0 run to go from down 32-33 to up 40-32.

With 6-foot-11 Carlton dominating (12 points and 12 rebounds) dominating the offensive boards against the smaller St. John's, UConn maintained the lead and led 60-50 with just 5 minutes to play.

However, St. John's then did one they do best, turning UConn over down the stretch. While the lack of height hurt until that point, center Champagnie had 6 steals en route to a team 16-8 edge in steals with several in the last 5 minutes. Figueroa hit two 3-pointers en route to his game high 23 points and Willams scored with 16 seconds left to close the amazing 24-14 run in the final 5 minutes to send the game into overtime 74-74.

With 1:30 left, St. John's had a 4-point trip when Dunn stole the ball and scored on the fast break while being fouled, then missed the free throw by Champagnie who put it in to cut the score to 71-65.

Dunn and Figueroa took over in OT to advance St. John's 86-83 to face the winner of 1-seed Xavier vs. 32-seed North Florida.

Here is the complete bracket, followed by the breakdown of the one NIT game we played before the break.


NIT Games with Home Court Advantage

7-Oklahoma State 70, 26-South Alabama 58

South Alabama (USA) dominated the boards to lead 47-42 with 10:45 (18 possessions) to play.

However, USA big men Trhae Mitchell and later Josh Ajayi (8 points, 9 rebounds) fouled out to let Cameron McGriff (18 points, 8 rebounds) take over inside down the stretch to lead Oklahoma State's 70-68 NIT 1st round win.

Since our NCAA tournament was played using neutral court rules, this was the first time a game was played as a home game, and two calls hurt USA. The refs missed a call (36 roll) that prevented Mitchell from hitting a 3-pointer and instead caused a turnover. Later Mitchell's 5th foul was on a good call but one that would have been overlooked (also 36 roll) if South Alabama were at home.

From the time Mitchell fouled out USA was outscored 28-11 in part because of several OSU baskets on shots Mitchell would have blocked if still in the game.

With the other two front line players fouled out, USA's Chad Lott (16 points) kept it close for a while, but OSU's point guard Isaac Likelele (9 points, 5 steals) helped OSU win the turnover battle 16 to 8.

The following photo is of the first game played with the team sheets rather than the bigger playing cards. All 10 players on each team are on their sheet, though in the photo we just show the 5.starters across the top and the scoresheet at the top.




Monday, July 20, 2020

Debut Score sheets and Free 2020 Statis-Pro Cards and Game; Machado Stops Cole's Perfecto but Yanks Dominate

To play Statis-pro baseball just click on the score sheet for each of the 30 teams, which now includes cards for all 30 teams based on Zips projections. See the (free game here). Search "new games" to find where newest game score sheets start.

This blog includes the games we have played. In our season five teams from each league were relegated, while the 10 AL teams below and 10 NL teams being played separately continue to play for four division Championship byes and eight wild card spots.


AL "East"WLDivWCUpcoming 2-game seriesplayoffs
NYY492907LAA, Min, Mil (3) 2-Bye
TB.  4830-26CWS, LAA, StL (3)3 vs 6-cws
Cle4038-9-2Hou, Oak, Tor (3)Out 
Bost3642-13-6Hou, Oak, Pit (3)Out 
Tor. 3543-14-7Cle, Hou, Min, (3)Out 
AL "West"WLDivWCUpcoming 2-game seriesplayoffs
Hou472508Bos, Cle, Tor, CWS (4)1-Bye
Min4335-72NYY, Tor, Tex (3)4 vs 5-oak
LAA4137-9-1NYY, TB, Phi (3)Out
Oak. 3933-80Bos, Cle, CWS, CHC (4)  5 vs 4-min
CWS4236-80TB, Hou, Oak (3)6 vs 3-tb

The grid of all series are in this google sheet. Bold opponents indicates games against a relegated (therefore easier opponent). After all series above, each team will have played two games against the other 9 teams in these AL standings, two NL qualifiers, and 5 relegated teams.

As a sample, here is the score sheet and game notes for the 2-game series between the Yankees and Padres, which you can click on and stretch out to see the result of every at bat.


For the past month I've been plugging a set of Basic because the batters cards seemed as accurate as the Advanced Cards produced by Derrick Beckner that I use for all-time games. Unfortunately when I pointed out the formulas for those Basic cards allowed way too many hits to be allowed by most pitchers, rather than simply considering revising his cards the creator was defensive and I simply created the 2020 cards myself so you can play your own games with them. I suggest using the sheets for your pitcher cards, and use a stack of cards you already have or choose to buy for your line-ups, but I did include a second sheet on the google sheet with rough batters cards - so you can play without buying anything except a few dice.

New games

Dbacks crush Ohtani to complete 8-4 and 12-3 domination to knock Angels out of playoffs for now

The Angels would not make the playoffs if the Statis-pro season ended today, as even with a great card Ohtani was blasted as hard as he was in his actual 2020 season.



Manchado spoils Cole perfect game, but Yanks blast Padres, pull within 1 of Astros (13-0, 6-1).

Through 8 innings, Cole allowed only one base-runner (Machado double) and striking out 13 in a 13-0 win. That saved the 4 ace relievers to close out the 2nd game. The score sheet appears at the top of this blog.

Twins lose 2-5 and 0-4 to Nats - Scherzer 15k, 1 H and 2 W in shutout

Twins fall percentage points behind Angels to flip 4- and 5- seeds.


White Sox 8-6 and 10-9 over Orioles when 2 9th inning DEEP drives caught at wall

The White Sox continued to slug, finally catching the A's for a virtual tie for the 6th and final AL playoff spot. This was our first game played since the actual MLB season started.



Tigers 3-1 win, then Red Sox 4-1

At the 78-game mark for all AL East teams, the Red Sox managed only a split with their weakest opponent left on the schedule, staying 13 games behind the Yankees for 1st and six out of the playoffs.



Indians pull within 2 games of playoffs, 9-1 and 4-2 over Marlins 

Pitching (assume 1 inning pitched unless parenthesis for number if innings) runs allowed. Each # symbol means one unearned run.

Indians - 1st Game, beiber (8.0) 1 w, Rodriguez 0. 2nd game, Plurko ( 3.0*) 0, wittgren 0, Maton (0.2) 1, wood (1.1) 0 W, Hoyt 0, Perez 0, Hand 0 S.

Marlins - 1st game, Hernandez (4.0) 7## L, neibert 0, Duggar 0, stekenridge 0, Brigham 1, alcantara 0. 2nd game, Lopez (6.0) 3 L, sharp 1, stanek 1, tarpley 9.




Mariners scrap past Rays once, Rays respond with blowout to stay within game of Yanks

Rays best pitching staff in game.


Mariners Speed Upsets Rays 7-5; Tsutsugo in Rays 10-2 win to stay within a game of Yanks.

Tsutsugo 3 homers in 2-game series.



Blue Jays Playoff Hopes Fade with 7-2, 10-2 Losses to Rangers


Blue Jays' ace Ryu pitched 7 great innings in a 2-2 tie, but when the Blue Jays young sluggers do not put up their normal great numbers they are in trouble. In the 8th inning, Gallo's 3-run but HR started a 9-inning stretch during which the Rangers scored 15 runs. The complete sweep was a huge blow to the young Blue Jays' playoff hopes, as they are now 7 games out of the last wild card spot.

In their last 6 at bats, respectively, Gallo had three hits including two home runs, and Choo (batting before him in the No. 3 spot)  had 5 hits including one home run. In the second game, Rangers ace Lance Lynn went 8 strong innings to wrap up the 7-2 and 10-2 wins.

Once the schedule at the top is done the strength of schedule will be balanced and all 10 teams will have played 6 games against each other, as well as the same number of relegated teams (5 from each league that did not make the cutoff for the top 10) and NL teams who did advance. The free instructions are here. All you need is a few dice. However, while we don't sell anything, we do recommend once you try out the game you order your own playing cards and we recommend using adjustments for ball parks based on this chart,

Sunday, July 19, 2020

Formula for Accurate Statis-pro pitcher cards

In the 40 years I've played Statis-pro the only accurate pitchers cards I've seen are those produced by Derrick of Advanced Statis-pro. The hit, walk and strikeout ranges on PB 2-9 cards in particular have not only been incredibly inaccurate but backward because of the initial charts indicating a PB 2-9 pitcher with the same hits allowed per inning  as a PB 2-5 would have fewer hits on his card rather than more.

I finally decided to create this google sheet to accurately calculate basic Statis-pro pitcher cards any time you need one (e.g. if you use 2019 cards but 2020 rosters and want to create a rookie card). I used Rich Hill's projected stats but calculated as though he were each PB. A PB 2-9 with his same other stats should allow hits on 11-25, and a PB 2-5 should allow hits only on 11-13, etc. The green numbers are the ones you type in, and the sheet calculates the red numbers that would appear on the card (because excel conversions of normal numbers to a Base 8 system like 11-88 use 0 instead of 8, a range like 24-50 below is really the same as a 24-48).



More technical Explanation for Fellow Data Geeks

I thought I finally found someone else with correct formulas when I saw a Aroldis Chapman PB 2-9 projected 2020 cards with a correct Hit Range of 11-22, only to see PB 2-7 Rich Hill had a 11-25 (accurate card would be 11-22) and PB 2-5 Tommy Milone with an 11-33 (correct would be 11-25).

The reason for this is that if Hill were a PB 2-9 then for every 64 times the random number were on his card (accounting for all results from 11-88) the random number would land of the batters' card an average of 13 times, and on those the batter would have 4 hits. (Actually just over 3.5, but rounding in the table). To get to his projected 92 hits in 100 innings as a PB 2-9 he would need to allow hits on 11-25.

As a PB 2-7, he needs 11-22 to average 10 hits per the 64 RNs on his card because on average batters' card he is facing would yield 13 hits in 46 chances.

If he were a PB 2-5 his card would only allow hits on 11-13 because on average the RN would land on the batters' card 166 times and yield 47 hits.

I don't mind that people are selling pitching cards that are not precise, but that they are highly inaccurate such as a PB 2-9 pitching card that only allowed hits on a random number on something like 11-15 when the range should be 11-23.

For those who want to see the actual formulas they are in columns further right than the columns shown below, but if you have any extra pitcher you want to create (e.g. those of us who play current seasons but want to add a rookie) then you can type in just projected innings pitched, hits allowed, strikeouts and walks allowed and this will generate the card.

Derrick's PBs are much more PRECISE than the traditional PB calculation of using the FIPs or ERA. However you still get less precise but cards that are accurate as far as hits, walks, and strikeouts allowed if you start with the traditional way of giving a PB 2-9 to the best 5%, 2-8 if best 15%, PB 2-7 if top 35%, PB 4-7 if 65%, PB 2-6 if top 85%, PB 2-5 if top 95% and PB 2-4 for the bottom.

For purposes of these simple but accurate calculations I just give a player one balk, wild pitch and passed ball - the most common mistake players made over the years is not realizing you do need to read these as an "out" if noone is on base.

The problem from the beginning of the game is that charts were provided when the game first came out that gave the very accurate and simple batting card calculations (much easier since the batter will have action on his card half of his at bats over the course of the season) but was fatally flawed on.the pitcher charts.

Under the assumption that a great PB 2-9 pitcher allowed 92 hits in 100 innings - like in our example above if Rich Hill's projected stats - then he would logically have fewer hits allowed on his card than a much worse PB 2-5 pitcher who allowed the same number of hits per inning (92 in 100).

The chart calculates the same for walks and strikeouts as well, which likewise have been way off.

One the table, I do calculate an Inning pitched as 3 outs (at bats - hits). Even though that number in the 2020 season was actually 2.86 because in addition to batters making outs other outs are produced on the base paths or double plays or sacrifices. However because Statis-pro balks, wild pitches and passed balls sometimes take the place of outs for purposes of card calculations the 3.0 is very close. Many Statis-pro players mistakenly play a WP, PB and BK as no action when noone is on base, but really it needs to be treated as an "Out" with noone is on base or even if the "no" result came up on the next card.

Still my favorite game of all time, and the PB 2-7 and PB 2-6 cards have always been very close to accurate, the PB 2-9s have just always been way too good and the PB 2-5s way too bad.