Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Cubs Wish List - Elite Pitcher to Replace Arrieta and Hold Off Improved Brewers in NL Central

If the Chicago Cubs pick up an elite starting pitcher or two to make up for losing Jake Arrieta, they could have the final piece to a return to the World Series two years after winning it all. The Cubs line-up is by far the best in the division, but the Milwaukee Brewers improved in the offseason and are good enough at everything else to contend, and the St. Louis Cardinals pitching gives them a chance if they can pull off trade or two.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are a prototype average across-the-board, while the Cincinnati Reds are unfortunately weak in all aspects and unfortunately could part with one superstar.

Explanation of Ratings: We start by rating each team on a base 20 scale, with a 10-point scale for batting, 5-point scale for starting pitching, 3-point scale for relief pitching and 2-point scale for fielding. This was done by reviewing personnel and results to date and playing simulated games through Statis-Pro baseball (free version here), weighing pitching and batting stats by the team's home ballpark, reviewing which fielders on each team were nominated for a gold glove either of the past two seasons and evaluating all new players. We then assess the new players acquired and present the weaknesses that might be addressed by the July trade deadline. 

Chicago (15.0 of 20) - While the three elite teams all appear to be in the AL in the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox, the Cubs are strong in all four areas that they could contend and match up pretty closely if they make the World Series. If the Cubs can get another top starter or two like Tyson Ross (SD) or Chris Archer (TB), they could truly be a contender.    

Batters (6.9 of 10) - The Cubs stayed pat with a strong line-up.    

Starters (3.6 of 5) - With the loss of Jake Arrieta to the Phillies, the Cubs might need to add Tyson Ross (SD) or Chris Archer (TB) before the trade deadline to truly have the elite rotation to potentially go all the way.  - The gamble assuming Tyler Chatwood would pitch well making the move from the altitude of Colorado to Wrigley, and the rotation is solid but not quite elite. If Yu Darvish comes back strong once off DL it will help as well.           

Relievers (2.0 of 3) - Adding Steve Cishek from Tampa Bay was a big addition to a pen that already included Brandon Morrow and can certainly shut an opponent down for at least a couple of innings.

Fielding (1.8 of 2) - Contender for the best fielders in baseball with Jason Heyward in RF, and Anthony Rizzo (1b), Ben Zobrist (2b) and Addison Russell (ss) all gold glove nominees.

Milwaukee (13.3 of 20) - On paper, the Brewers made substantial moves to improve the line-up, starting pitchers and relievers - and the great defensive improvement in the outfield helps make them a legit playoff contender. They may still need to add a battery like Cole Hamels and Jonathan Lucroy to beat out the Cubs in the end, but they are right there.

Batters (4.2 of 10) - The additions of Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich give the Brewers a strong first five hitters - through the line-up is still not as deep as other playoff contenders.     
    
Starters (4.5 of 5) - The pickup of Jhoulys Chacin rounds out what could be a fantastic starting rotation.           

Relievers (3.0 of 3) - The pickup of Albers from the Nationals was expected to make a great pen even stronger, but it's been the pickup of Jeremy Jeffres added to the already great pen that - if healthy and living up to its potential -  could make it the best in the majors.              Fielding 1.0 of 2. In addition to their great bats, the additions of Gold Glove nominees  Cain and Yelich transform the Brewers from a poor to a solid fielding team.

St. Louis (11.8 of 20) - The Cardinals are certainly solid, but with an average lineup and above average pitching and fielding, they still do not look like they have the overall talent to beat out the Cubs or even the Brewers.  

Batters (5.0 of 10) - The Cardinals appeared to be a bit below average until they won the rest of the Marlins' sweepstake by signing one of the top hitters in the game last year in Marcell Ozuna.      
    
Starters (2.1 of 3) - A solid rotation left in place.   Relievers (2.1 of 3) - Greg Holland coming from the Rockies seemed like a good bet but has not panned out yet - but this bullpen was and is still loaded.

Fielding (1.1 of 2) - The Marlins Marcell Ozuna is not only a huge addition in the line-up but adds another Gold Glove nominee in the outfield to join perhaps the most dominant defender in the game - catcher Yadier Molina.

Pittsburgh (9.7 of 20) - The Pirates are almost exactly average across-the-board, from their starting pitching to their pen, to their batters. The only spot they are below average is in the field, and that is partly because a great glove at third base is on the bench a good bit due to a great new bat.

Batters (5.1 of 10) - The big addition to the lineup is slugging third baseman Colin Moran, who along with former Tampa Bay outfielder Corey Dickerson makes the line-up above average.     
     
Starters (2.5 of 5) - The addition of Astro Joe Musgrove as a starter helps the rotation just a bit to make them almost exactly average.

(Relievers 1.5 of 3) - The addition of Kyle Click from the Giants is a nice addition but still leaves the pen just average overall.      

Fielding (0.6 of 2) - The only problem with Molin hitting so well is that he puts Gold Glove nominee David Freese on the bench for most games, leaving Starling Marte (LF) as the only nominee on the field.

Cincinnati (5.1 of 20) -  Scooter Gennett is providing a third big bat, but if he is traded away then the Reds could finish at the bottom as they are weak throughout except for strong fielding and one nice addition in the bullpen.  Batters (2.9 of 10) - If Scooter Gennett is traded it will take the Reds down to just a couple of big bats and not a lot of punch in many spots.         

Starters (1.2 of 5) Picking up Matt Harvey after his rough season with the Mets may be working out and Anthony James DeSclafani looks like an adequate starter - but the rotation is still a big weakness even prior to assuming Harvey is traded.          

Relievers (0.8 of 3) - Jared Hughes was a great pickup from the Brewers, but beyond him, the pen is suspect despite a couple of players having decent starts.    
     
Fielding (1.8 of 2) - For all their weaknesses, the Reds may have the best defense in baseball with 4 Gold Glove nominees in C Tucker Barnhart, 1b Joey Votto, LF Adam Duvall, and of course the amazing cf Billy Hamilton for whom contenders must be considering offers.

Monday, June 18, 2018

The 81 Clutch Defensive Players based on recent Gold Glove nominations

One part of the Statis-Pro game that was dated was the reliance merely on double plays to determine if a player was a clutch defensive player. While modern stats measure defensive Wins Above Replacement figures, on fielding I still rely on the gold glove votes by managers and coaches to determine which players get the highest mark - the Clutch Defense 4 that allows for diving catches that can save games.

When I play Statis-Pro I change all of the following players - players who received a gold glove nomination in the past two years - to a "Clutch Defense 4. If the cards sent to me have a player not on this list with a CD4 rating, I lower it to a CD3, which is still the next best rating since other players are a CD1 or CD2.

In a Statis-Pro game, if a reading of CD for Clutch Defense occurs, flip another card or roll the two 8-sided die and refer to the Random Number if you are using Fast Action Cards and cross reference on this chart. If bases are empty ignore this chart - this is only used if at least one runner is on base.


CD1 = no play madeCD Clutch DefenseChance for Great Play
Infielders resultCD2 on cardCD3 or 4 on Card but NOT on list belowOn Gold Glove list below (treated as CD4)
Line out, lead runner doubled off base11 to 2111 to 4211 to 56
Grounder, lead runner thrown out22 to 3243 to 5557 to 78
No action, return to normal play33 to 8856 to 8881 to 88
Outfielders onlyCD2 on cardCD3 or 4 on Card but NOT on list belowOn Gold Glove list below (treated as CD4)
Line out in gap, lead runner doubled off base11 to 2111 to 4211 to 56
Line out, runners get back safely22 to 3243 to 5557 to 78
No action, return to normal play33 to 8856 to 8881 to 88
Catchers OnlyCD2 on cardCD3 or 4 on Card but NOT on list belowOn Gold Glove list below (treated as CD4)
Diving catch of pop up, lead runner doubled off base11 to 3211 to 5511 to 78
No Action33 to 8856 to 8881 to 88


TEAMGold Glove Nominee 2017 or 18Position
ArizonaJean SeguraSecond Base
ArizonaPaul GoldschmidtFirst Base
ArizonaZack GreinkePitcher
AtlantaEnder InciarteCenter Field
AtlantaNick MarkakisRight Field
BaltimoreAlex CobbPitcher
BaltimoreChris DavisFirst Base
BaltimoreColby RasmusLeft Field
BaltimoreManny MachadoThird Base
BostonChris SalePitcher
BostonDustin PedroiaSecond Base
BostonJackie Bradley Jr.Center Field
BostonMitch MorelandFirst Base
BostonMookie BettsRight Field
Chicago CubsAddison RussellShortstop
Chicago CubsAnthony RizzoFirst Base
Chicago CubsBen ZobristSecond Base
Chicago CubsJason HeywardRight Field
CincinnatiAdam DuvallLeft Field
CincinnatiBilly HamiltonCenter Field
CincinnatiJoey VottoFirst Base
CincinnatiTucker BarnhartCatcher
ClevelandFrancisco LindorShortstop
ClevelandJose RamirezThird Base
ClevelandYan GomesCatcher
ColoradoCarlos GonzalezRight Field
ColoradoDJ LeMahieuSecond Base
ColoradoGerardo ParraLeft Field
ColoradoNolan ArenadoThird Base
DetroitIan KinslerSecond Base
DetroitJames McCannCatcher
DetroitJose IglesiasShortstop
Free AgentR.A. DickeyPitcher
HoustonDallas KeuchelPitcher
HoustonGeorge SpringerRight Field
HoustonJustin VerlanderPitcher
Kansas CityAlex GordonLeft Field
Kansas CitySalvador PerezCatcher
LA AngelsAndrelton SimmonsShortstop
LA AngelsJustin UptonLeft Field
LA AngelsKole CalhounRight Field
LA AngelsMartin MaldonadoCatcher
LA DodgersCorey SeagerShortstop
LA DodgersJustin TurnerThird Base
LA DodgersYasiel PuigRight Field
MilwaukeeChristian YelichLeft Field
MilwaukeeLorenzo CainCenter Field
MilwaukeeZach DaviesPitcher
MinnesotaBrian DozierSecond Base
MinnesotaByron BuxtonCenter Field
NY YankeesAaron JudgeRight Field
NY YankeesBrett GardnerLeft Field
NY YankeesGiancarlo StantonRight Field
OaklandJonathan LucroyCatcher
PhiladelphiaCarlos SantanaFirst Base
PhiladelphiaJake ArrietaPitcher
PhiladelphiaOdubel HerreraCenter Field
PittsburghDavid FreeseThird Base
PittsburghStarling MarteLeft Field
San DiegoEric HosmerFirst Base
San DiegoFreddy GalvisShortstop
San DiegoWil MyersFirst Base
San FranciscoBrandon CrawfordShortstop
San FranciscoBuster PoseyCatcher
San FranciscoEvan LongoriaThird Base
San FranciscoJoe PanikSecond Base
SeattleDee GordonSecond Base
SeattleKyle SeagerThird Base
SeattleRobinson CanoSecond Base
St. LouisAdam WainwrightPitcher
St. LouisMarcell OzunaLeft Field
St. LouisYadier MolinaCatcher
Tampa BayKevin KiermaierCenter Field
TexasAdrian BeltreThird Base
TexasCarlos PerezCatcher
TexasElvis AndrusShortstop
TorontoKevin PillarCenter Field
TorontoMarcus StromanPitcher
WashingtonAdam EatonRight Field
WashingtonAnthony RendonThird Base
WashingtonMichael TaylorCenter Field

Friday, June 15, 2018

Monitoring New MLB Players with Creation of Statis-Pro Cards

New player cards will continue to be added to this link.

The best 5% of all pitchers control the game with a PB rating of 2-9, meaning only a roll or card flip of 10, 11 or 12 give the batter a pitch they can drive. The next 10% have a 2-8 rating, then a 2-7 for anyone who is at least above average (top 45%). The 15% that struggles the worse get the lowest rating of 2-5, leaving everyone from average to mediocre/below average as a PB 2-6.

The following gives the exact average for all pitcher, then the average card for someone in the top four of their rotation (which is an almost identical 2-6). However, the average closer from the 30 teams has a PB 2-8 as one of the top 15% of all pitchers and gives up fewer hits and walks while striking out more.

Below those top three cards are cards for new players this year who do not have a card from last year, and then below that we show the average card for a batter - which has a home run range of 27-32 - or 4 of the 64 ranew dom numbers or rolls from the 11-88 base 8 range. So if a batter has more than 4 home run numbers, or his numbers go higher than 32 or he has more than the 4 walks on an average card, those indicate a strong batter.



Here are the average batters, the cards that should be used when a pitcher is batting, and then some new cards for a few of the players getting time this year who played little or not at all last year.




Thursday, May 31, 2018

LeBron now GOAT; Midnight Announcement Leaves Nevada No. 1

What a 24 hours for basketball! But before we run through why LeBron James (who will always be tied to our Dwyane Wade) takes the court tonight at Golden State having passed Michael Jordan as the most valuable player of all time, let's talk about what happened just before the midnight deadline for players to return to their colleges rather than stay eligible for the NBA draft in three weeks ...

At 11:33 p.m. ET last night, Cody Martin tweeted that he would return to Nevada, and at 11:34 his twin Caleb Martin confirmed he would stay as well - beating the Midnight deadline for players to leave the NBA draft t return to school. Kentucky, Villanova, Tennessee, Maryland and Virginia Tech were not so lucky, losing players to drop in the www.valueaddbasketball.com top 25.
  
However, Kentucky's replacement players were so good that they actually remained the No. 3 team in the nation. Duke passed them for No. 2, but Villanova fell from No. 2 to No. 10 - with Kansas rounding out the projected Final Four. Here is the top 25 with notes on teams that lost players to the NBA once and for all at Midnight.
  
Team   Top 8 Value Add
1.   Nevada   52.98 – Cody and Caleb Martin announced return at 11:33 pm to keep them at No. 1 with 52.98 combined Value Add.
2.   Duke   46.65
3.   Kentucky   stayed in third despite 241st Vanderbilt (5.17) & 272nd Gabriel (4.93) dropping but being replaced by almost as good 9th and 10th men (8.22 combined Value Add) as Villanova dropped further and Duke moved ahead of Kentucky’s 45.33
4.   Kansas   42.26
5.   Oregon   41.52
6.   North Carolina   40.31
7.   Mississippi St.   40.05
8.   Louisiana St.   39.18
9.   Auburn   38.66
10.   Villanova   dropped from 2nd after 25th ranked Spellman (8.01 Value Add) & 32nd DiVincenzo, (7.84) both left and replacements are a combined 6.85 to lower team from 47.51 to 38.51
11.   Gonzaga   37.94
12.   Tennessee   dropped from 6th after Alexander, 5.89 left and with (1.25 replacement) lowered from 42.01 to 37.37
13.   Syracuse   37.44
14.   North Carolina St.   35.07
15.   Indiana   34.95
16.   Virginia   34.62
17.   Texas   34.28
18.   UCLA   34.26
19.   Kansas St.   34.16
20.   Michigan St.   33.63
21.   Marquette   33.13
22.   Maryland   39.36 – dropped from 9th after 33rd ranked Huerter (7.82) left and only a 1.23 replacement to lower from 39.36 to 32.77
23.   Florida   32.73
24.   Iowa   32.49
25.   Arizona St.   32.1 (moved from 26th to 25th due to Virginia Tech dropping out)
Dropped Out - Virginia Tech   33.49 – dropped from 21st to 33rd after 381th ranked Alexander-Walker (4.25 Value Add) left with only 1.32 replacement Value Add to drop from 33.49 to 30.85
  
... now back to the inconvenient truth that LeBron James takes the court tonight as the GOAT, at least if that means the most valuable player in the history of basketball. Now that all of my friends in North Carolina and Chicago have stopped reading, let's walk through this.
  
As Golden State opens as a double digit favorite in the opener of the NBA Finals, Michael Jordan fans are likely to still be able to cling to their one argument for his superiority over LeBron James - six championships.
  
This ignores the fact that Jordan was one of THREE Hall of Famers playing at HOF levels (one of those years all three were in the top 15 in MVP voting) were on the 4th, 5th and 6th championship, and that argument leaves Jordan behind Robert Horry (7 titles), a legitimate contender for the greatest of all-time in Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and many previous players who had more than six.
  
In this his 15th season, LeBron James was more than twice as valuable as Jordan was in his 15th and final season based on career Win Shares (the only way to truly compare players from different eras).
  
In fact, in his five seasons without Hall of Famer Scottie Pippen on the court with him, Jordan never even had a winning season, averaging just 30 wins and 52 losses. Jordan apologists complained when James went to Miami to likewise team up with a future Hall of Fame Player in Marquette's Dwyane Wade - but James did not need a Hall of Fame teammate to make his teams awesome - averaging a 51-31 record in the years before and after he and Wade teamed up.
  
So when they had to carry their teams without the help of another Hall of Fame player, James’ teams were 21 wins better than Jordan's teams.
  
It is also fair to note that while Pippen finished 5th, 7th and 9th in MVP voting three of his years with Jordan, and in one year Dennis Rodman gave Jordan TWO teammates in the top 15 in voting - only one season has LeBron ever had a top 9 teammate (Wade 7th, as his best player was prior to James' arrival). In short, Jordan never produced nearly the same results as Jordan EXCEPT when he had Hall of Fame support far superior to the poor cast James dragged to the NBA Finals some of his years.
  
The three years before Jordan arrived in Chicago, the Bulls averaged a 36-46 record. Jordan played three seasons before another Hall of Fame player arrived, and during his three years befoer adding Pippen Jordan's teams averaged the identical 36-46 record. Jordan scored a lot - but his team was no better with him until another Hall of Famer came along.
  
Compare this to the transformation of the Cavs after James’ arrival. The Cavs prior to James were far worse than the Bulls prior to Jordan, with a 17-65 record. For an apples to apples, they averaged 25-67 in the 3 years prior to James arrival (11 games worse than the pre-Jordan Bulls), yet in their first three years with James the averaged 42-40 for a 17 average improvement in wins to ZERO for Jordan.
  
Jordan did not lead his team to a winning record until he was 25 and Pippen had arrived - but by age 25 James finished his seventh season having taken his Cavs to an average mark of 50-32 before leaving to Miami to team up with a player almost at Pippen’s level in Wade.
  
The difference continued throughout their careers. In the years before or after James and Jordan left and arrived, James’ teams averaged being 22 games better with him than without him and Jordan's teams did not improve at all until an extra Hall of Famer was added to the roster.
  
The dreadful Cavs improved 18 games as soon as the teenager James took the court. When he went from the Cavs to the Heat the Cavs lost 42 more games and the Heat won 11 more games. When he went back to the Cavs they won 20 more games and the Heat lost 17 more, for an average of 22 more wins a season with than without James.


Season
LeBron arriving or departing
W
L
Before and After
2003-04
Cleveland Cavaliers
35
47
18
2009-10
Cleveland Cavaliers
61
21
42
2010-11
Miami Heat
58
24
11
2013-14
Miami Heat
54
28
17
2014-15
Cleveland Cavaliers
53
29
20
Teams 22 games better w/LeBron
22


Contrast this with the amazing lack of difference Jordan’s departures and returns made. When he arrived from UNC he made the Bulls one game worse at 27-55, and as noted did not improve them one game over his first three years. When he took the 1993-94 season off the Bulls were only two games worse. 

James critics will note that Jordan then came back for only part of the 1994-95 season, but he was there for the entire playoffs and the team did just as well as they did the year before without him - a loss in the Conference Semifinals. The next year they had a monster year - but remember that was only after adding a THIRD Hall of Fame Player in Dennis Rodman to the them.
  
And then Jordan played his final two seasons with the Wizards’ - his 14th and 15th seasons, but unlike James’ 14th and 15th seasons he was simply not very good, getting a couple of MVP mentions the first year and then having a nice farewell tour. The Wizards’ were 10 games worse when he arrived, and just as good the year after he left.
  

That means the only time a team was more than two games better the year after or before Jordan left was after the 1997-98 season - WHEN ALL THREE HALL OF FAME PLAYERS LEFT AT ONCE.

Season
Jordan arriving or departing
W
L
Before and After
1983-84
Chicago Bulls
27
55
-1
1992-93
Chicago Bulls
57
25
2
1994-95
Chicago Bulls
47
35
-8
1997-98
Chicago Bulls***
62
20
41
2000-01
Washington Wizards
19
63
-10
2001-02
Washington Wizards
37
45
0
Teams 4 games better w/Jordan
4

*** because of the 1998-99 strike, the Bulls record is projected with 21 wins

Jordan was an incredible leader of teams with other Hall of Fame players, and he knew how to close when his teammates were superior to all the opponents they would face. I will even grant that his three best seasons may have been slightly better than any of James' seasons.
  
However, James’ ability to take teams that should not be in the playoffs all the way to the NBA Finals time and time again is a much dramatic than Jordan’s ability to make sure his Hall of Fame teammates did not blow championships.
  
James passed Jordan and he is still playing strong.
  
Unless you want to argue that Horry is greater than Jordan because of the extra championship, it is time to admit there is a new all time King.


Monday, May 28, 2018

Basic Statis-Pro Basic Game - Learn and play in Just a Minute

Quick Start Page
Entire Statis-Pro game can be played with only this top page, dice and player cards

A. Traditional 6-sided dice for the PB rating of 2 to 12.
B. Two 8-sided dice of different colors to create a Random Number of 11 to 88.
C. Use 20-sided die result for all "Out" results (if a hit occurs, ignore unless 18-20).
If you do not have a 20-sided dice, just score all Outs as a flyout with runners holding,


When Pitchers bat, skip the PB and draw the random number with the following results: 1b7: 11-12, 1b8: 13-14,
1b9: 15-16, 2b8: 17, K: 18-52, W: 53-54, Out: 55-88. OBR: E, SP: E, Sac: CC

Once a runner is on base, you can use one of these three options before the next batter hits.


1 die
Extra Base on hit
Stealing base
Bunting
1
OBR A, B or C Xtra base        
SP A, B or C steals     
Sacrifice, OBR: A batter safe for hit
2
OBR A or B Xtra base
SP A or B steals
Sacrifice
3
OBR A Xtra base
SP A steals
Sacrifice
4
Xtra base only if 2 outs
Only SP AA steals
Sacrifice
5
Hold base
Hold
Strikeout
6
Roll again for throw
Roll again for throw
Leader Runner out

When trying to take an extra base or by stealing on the chart above, the runner can only be out
on a roll of 6. On rolls of 1-5 he just fails to take the extra base if his OBR or SP is not good enough.
However, if a 6 is rolled, then there is a close play and he will be either safe or out.
The 6-sided die is rolled one more time, and this time if the number is equal to or less than
the outfielders throwing arm (T5, T4, T3 or T2) then he is out. For stealing, a TA always
throws the base stealer out, while a TB throws him out on 1-4 and a TC on 1-2.

20-Sided Die result (always use if "Out," and if roll is number 20 then always use)
1. Double play 6-4-3
2. Double Play 4-6-3 OBR A batter beats throw to 1st
3. Double Play 5-4-3, OBR A or B batter beats throw to 1st
4.      Double Play 3-4-3, OBR A, B or C batter beats throw to 1st
5.      Double Play, OBR A, B or C batter beats throw to 1st (If no one on 1st base
on a double play above, the throw is to 1st base for out. With 1st and 3rd base, defense can
say INFIELD IN before roll, and instead of double play batter out and runners now 2nd and 3rd base)
6.      Lead forced runner out, others advance (shortstop to lead base)
7.      Lead forced runner out, others advance (2nd base to lead base)
8.      Lead forced runner out, others advance
9.    Line out
10.   infield fly
11.   Fly out to left field, runners hold (LN or LP is fly out to right field)
12.   Fly out to left field, runners hold
13.   Fly out to center field, OBR A on 2nd or 3rd advance
14.   Fly out to right field, runner OBR A or B on 2nd or 3rd advance
15.   Fly out to right field, runner on 2nd or 3rd advance
16.   Batter grounds out, runners advance
17.   Batter grounds out, runners advance
18.   ROLL two 6-sided dice AGAIN and refer to green to see which fielder might make 1-base error:
19.   Possible 2-base error, use same process as “18” above but if error results then 2 bases
2 diceCheck for error2 diceCheck for error
2 or 31b82B
4P9LF
5CF10C
63b11RF
7SS12SS
Look at position, then roll 20-sided Die again - subtract 10 if roll is from 11-20 - so result = 1 to 10.
If that number is LOWER THAN or EQUAL TO the E number on the fielder
then score as 1-base error, if not then OUT and runners advance one base.
(e.g. Aaron Judge is E2, so roll of 3 or 13 NOT error)
If a 18 or 19 occurred on a hit, then use the 20-sided die to determine if error where ball was hit.
20. If noone on base OR you opt to play "simple rules" then a 20 on an out is a flyout to CF.
If anyone is on base when a 20 is rolled, then ignore the normal PB and RN on the batter or pitcher card, INSTEAD use those dice for the numbers below:


2 - BD - Clutch Batting: Look up the Random Number of 11-88 on batters card for bases-clearing double, triple or home run or if not in range then ignore.
3 - BD - Clutch Batting (same as "2")
4 - BD - Clutch Batting (same as "2")

Numbers 5 through 9 use the two 6-sided dice to pick a position below, and the 11 to 88 on the chart:
5 - CF 
6 (1 & 5) - LF
6 (2 & 4) - RF
6 (3 & 3) - P
7 (1 & 6) - 1B
7 (2 & 5) - 2B
7 (3 & 4) - 3B
8 (4 & 4) - C
8 (any other combination) - SS
9 - CF

CD1 = no play madeCD Clutch DefenseChance for Great Play
Infielders resultCD2                   CD3CD4
Line out, lead runner doubled  11 to 21           11 to 4211 to 56
Grounder, lead runner thrown out22 to 32           43 to 5557 to 78
No action, return to normal play33 to 88           56 to 8881 to 88
Outfielders only


CD2           CD3CD4
Line out in gap, lead runner doubled off base11 to 21           11 to 4211 to 56
Line out, runners get back safely22 to 32           43 to 5557 to 78
No action, return to normal play33 to 88           56 to 8881 to 88
Catchers OnlyCD2                     CD3CD4
Diving catch of pop up, lead runner doubled off base11 to 32            11 to 5511 to 78
No Action33 to 88            56 to 8881 to 88


10 - Use Z Chart - if you do not have Z Charts then ignore
11 - Use Z Chart - if you do not have Z Charts then ignore
12 - Use Z Chart  - if you do not have Z Charts then ignore

Random NumberIf Z Play Results, read random number below.RandomIf Z Play Fielding for CD 1 or 2If CD 3 or 4
11Catcher ejected11 to 34 ignore if noone on 1st
12Pitcher ejected1114G3, runners advance3-6-3 double play
13Batter ejected15184-3 runners advance4-6-3 double play
14Single, P, C & 1b ejected21246-3 runners advance6-4-3 double play
15Batter ejected25285-3 runners advance5-4-3 double play
16Pitcher ejected31341-3 runner advance1-6-3 double play
17Walk for pitcher going to mouth35381B - E0 to 3, out runners advanceE4-10 Single
18Batter out for illegal bat41442B - E0 to 3, out runners advanceE4-10 Single
21Rained out4548SS - E0 to 4, out runners advanceE5-10 Single
22Rained out51543b - E0 to 5, out runners advanceE6 -10 Single
23April games only rain out5563LF - E0 to 1 OutE2-10 Double, runners score
24April games only rain out6474CF - E0 to 2 OutE3-10 Double, runners score
25April games only rain out7583RF - E0 to 2 OutE3-10 Double, runners score
26Rain delay, both pitchers PB lowered by 18487C - E0 to 3 catch in standsE4-10 foul
27Double, but if runner on 1st ruled out for batter passing88Triple Play - line out & runners doubled off
28Strikeout, wild pitch, batter safe at 1st
31Double erased, batter out for missing 1st baseIf Z Play Injury
32If man on first, steals and SS ejectedInjury playPlayer hurt
33Runner out stealing second and ejected1112FoulC
34IF man on first, picked off 1-3-4-3 but a runner on 3b scores1314Foul1b
35IF man on first, picked off 1-3-6, all others advance1516Foul2b
36If man on 3rd, catcher picks off1718Foul3b
37Strikeout, passed ball batter safe at first if unoccopied or 2 outs2122FoulSS
38Single runners advance 2, but batter out rounding 1st2325DoubleLF
41Batter out for running into slow roller2628Inside Park Home RunCF
42Only runners on 1st and 2nd, grounder hits runner on 1st who is ruled out but batter gets hit3133TripleRF
43Catcher interference, batter gets 1st34FoulBatter
44Batter out on Fan interference3536FoulC
45 to 78Z chart fielding3741Double, runners score1b and RF
81 to 88Z chart injury4244Double, runners score2b and CF
4547Single, runners 2 basesSS and LF
48FoulBatter
5153Foul3b and P
5458Double, runners scoreLF and CF
6165Double, runners scoreCF and RF
6668Single, runners 1 base1b
7173Line out 2b2b
7476Line out 3b3b
7781Line out SSSS
8284FoulC
8588Double, runners scoreCF

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
You can use the simple version of the game by printing just the 1st page above to use with dice. If playing a game where a surface space is not available, the photo below gives the suggested set-up; 1) the sheet above laid at the bottom of a box; 2, The visiting line-up (Astros in photo) in the upper right photo, visiting pitcher (Verlander) below them, , home pitcher (Severino) below him, and home ine-up (Yankees) stacked in the lower right corner. This allows the dice to be rolled within the box. Reserve players can be put in an envelope elswhere to pull out when needed, and you can track results on a score sheet or pad.
However, if not using the simple version, then additional charts and other information is
included in the rest of this document:




Table of Contents

1.     For Experienced Players 
a.      Dice to replace Fast Action Deck (PB, RN, Fielding results)
b.     Check for Errors (roll of 18 or 19)
c.      Check for BD, CD or Z plays (roll of 20 IF someone on base)
d.     Experienced Readers Stop here
2.     Items if you do not have a board, charts from game
a.      Charts for taking extra base on hit, BD, CD, Z play
b.     Bunt and Steal Option
3.     1st Timers
a.      Sample game with Dodgers and Yankees player cards to play your first game
b.     Pictures of cards and dice alongside on-line dice and Fast Action Cards
c.      Make or Order your own cards
d.     Advance Rules for Pitchers endurance and rest
e.      Left handed vs Right Handed batter/pitcher adjustments
4.     My season and personal tweaks
a.      Avoiding ridiculous player cards
b.     International Rules for extra innings
c. Rest Rules
d.      Click for my season blog


1. For Experienced Players

If you have played Statis-Pro baseball before, but do not have a set of fast action cards with you, you can instead roll the following dice for each batter (or use dice simulator for all at www.roll-dice-online.com):


1a. Dice to replace Fast Action Deck (PB, RN, Fielding Results)

You can use the first page before the table of contents to use the results on that one page. 98% of the time you play will be spent on that first page using the typical Statis-Pro results by simply letting 5 dice yield the results that otherwise result from the Fast Action Cards.

A. Two traditional 6-sided dice for the PB rating of 2 to 12.
B. Two 8-sided dice of different colors to create a Random Number of 11 to 88.
C. A 20-sided dice for "Out" results that will replace all of the other parts of the Fast Action Deck by giving you the result of the out below.  You normally only need to look at the 20-sided die on an "Out" result, however if the result is a hit or an out and the roll is 18, 19 or 20 then you will need to review the 1 to 20 results on the 1st QUICK START page above the table of contents for Out results on 20-sided die.



1b. Check for Errors

As detailed in green on the 1st sheet.
1c. Check for BD, CD or Z Plays (if roll 20 and men on base)
The first sheet gives the option of skipping the clutch batting, clutch fielding and unusual plays, but unless you choose the simple game, then a roll of "20" on the 20-side dice will overrule the Hit or Out that would have resulted on the Batter or Pitcher card and the rest of the dice will be used to determine based on the following:

If 20-SIDED DIE = See above in yellow

1d. Experienced Readers with the Statis-Pro Board and Charts can play without reading further.

2. Items if you do not have a board, Charts

I

2a.      Charts for taking extra base on hit, BD, CD, Z play

The original chart for trying to take an extra base on a hit is below, however it was the on part of the game that was unrealistic since further studies showed that runners only advance from 1st to 3rd on about 30 percent of singles, and are only thrown out a little over 1% of the time 

Therefore, we recommend the folowing adjustments if the offensive player chooses to try to take an extra base:

1. Lower the safe range listed below by 20 with 0 or 1 out, and if there are 2 outs use the numbers below but do not add 20. Also, if the runner advances AND the random number is between 11-18 then a batter with either an OBR A or B takes another base on the throw attempt at the runner, and if the number is 21-28 AND the runner advances than only a batter who is OBR A can advance.

2. However, if the Random Number is NOT within the range listed then simply keep the runner at the base as he saw he probably could not make it to the next base. The runner is only thrown out on the following Random Numbers in all scenarios:

81-82 = T5 throws out runner trying to advance, others hold.
83-84 = same as above, except T4 or T5 throws runner out.
85-86 = same as above, execpt T3, T4 or T5 throws runner out
87-88 = runner trying to advance thrown out.


2b. Bunt and Steal Option

If you want to bunt or try to steal a base then roll the 20-sided die again and look at the chart below while referring to the T on the catcher's card and either the OBR or SP on the batter or runner's card as indicated. If you would rater bu


Steal OptionBunt Option
DieSteal attempt (add 1 to roll if 3B)DieBunt
1Catcher throws out (others hold)1Single for Batter OBR A-C, otherwise Sacrifice
2Catcher TA-B throws out (others hold)2Single for Batter OBR A-B, otherwise Sacrifice
3Catcher TA-B throws out (others hold)3Single for Batter OBR A-B, otherwise Sacrifice
4Catcher TA throws out (others hold)4Single for Batter OBR A, otherwise Sacrifice
5Catcher TA throws out (others hold)5Single only if Batter OBR A AND Sac AA, otherwise Sacrifice
6Hold6Sacrifice
7Sp AA steals, others hold7Sacrifice
8Sp AA steals, others hold8Sacrifice
9Sp AA steals, others hold9Sacrifice
10Sp AA steals, others hold10Sacrifice if batter Sac AA-CC, otherwise lead runner out
11SP A steals, others hold11Sacrifice if batter Sac AA-CC, otherwise lead runner out
12SP A steals, others hold12Sacrifice if batter Sac AA-BB, otherwise lead runner out
13SP A-B steals, others hold13Sacrifice if batter Sac AA-BB, otherwise lead runner out
14SP A-B steals, others hold14Sacrifice if batter Sac AA, otherwise lead runner out
15SP A-C steals, others hold15Sacrifice if batter Sac AA, otherwise lead runner out
16SP A-C steals, others hold16Popout
17SP A-D steals, others hold17Lead runner thrown out
18SP A-D steals, others hold18Lead runner thrown out and if runner on first, then double play with both him and batter thrown out
19Roll 20-sided die again, if roll equal or lower than catchers E number then 1-base error, otherwise runner holds19Roll 20-sided die again, if roll equal or lower than catchers E number then 1-base error, otherwise runner holds
20Same as 19 except 2-base error20Same as 19 except 2-base error



3. 1st Timers 

You can start by playing a sample game here between the Yankees and Dodgers, and then see "Make or Order Your Own Cards" (my order from big32dave at eBay was emailed within 2 hours or calculate on this google sheet) below whether to manage current or all-time major league players or player cards for minor league, college, American Legion, high school or even little league players.

3a.      Sample game with Dodgers and Yankees player cards to play your first game


Here we include player cards for nine Yankees to bat against the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw and nine Dodgers to bat against Yankee CC Sabathia. To try out the game, choose your line-up for both teams from the cards below and we will start with Clayton Kershaw against Aaron Judge.




Once you determine which pitcher is playing which batter, you will get a dice or card result from 2 to 12 to first determine whose card controls play based on the pitcher's PB rating (in this case PB 2-8 for Kershaw), and then through a result of 11-88 on that card. These numbers can be generated in one of three ways shown in these pictures:

1. If you have or can get a Statis-Pro Fast Action card deck you flip one card to get the PB (the first card below shows a "9" so it would be on Judge's card), then a second card to get the "Random" number (on the second card below the Random number is "27" which would be a home run because Judge's card shows a home run occurs on a 25-35 on his card. (Not that if the PB number were lower it would have been on Kershaw's card, and been in his stikeout range of 23-46.

2. You can generate the same results by rolling two traditional 6-sided dice and adding up the total of the dots (in this case "9" based on the blue dice to give the same result as the PB9 if you were using cards). You also need two 8-sided dice with the first number entering the "10s" number (we use yellow here so the "2" in yellow indicates the total will be 20-something) and the second die with a "7" on it makes the roll 27 to yield the same result as the card - a home run for Judge. The 20-sided roll of 1 day is used in advanced rules below.

3b. Pictures of cards and dice alongside on-line dice and Fast Action Cards




3. If you do not have the Face Action Cards or the dice, you can simply generate the rolls randomly on line by going to www.roll-dice-online.com. You need to first click "6" for Numer of Sides and Roll Dice - in this case generated a total of 3 + 6 that must be added together to total of 9 as the PB. You then must hit "8" by Number of sides for the random number and in this case the order is important as the "2" and then "7" rolls in the middle roll is read as 27 - the home run for Judge. The 20-sided roll of 1 day is used in advanced rules below.
Then bring up the next Yankees hitter from the cards below to complete a 9-man line-up, and then do the same for the Dodgers to face the pitcher CC Sabathia to play a game using basic baseball rules with outs and hits as indicated on the cards. To play a very basic game, simply keep track of what base each player is on and how many outs there are in each inning. If you do not yet want to use the advanced rules below on baserunning, then simply have runners on base move as many bases as the batter who hit the ball, but with two outs let them go an extra base (1st to 3rd or 2nd to home on a single or score from 1st on a double). This is actually surprisingly accurate as runners actually take an extra base on a hit almost one-third of the time and are actually thrown out trying just over 1% of the time.

Here are the rest of the Yankees in addition to Judge and Hicks above to give you the 9-man line-up.



One the Yankees have 3 outs in the first inning, CC Sabathia can pitch against the nine Dodgers below his card.






3c. Make or Order Your Own Cards


Making or Ordering the Rest of the Player cards for this or any past season, or for American Legion, college, high school, little league or the Minor Leagues.

Once you get more cards and can pinch hit or change pitchers, you can add these factors.

To get extra cards, you can order sets of cards for this or previous seasons through eBay for as little as $10, or even type in the stats to calculate your own cards on this google sheet.  You just need the following stats to type into the google sheet and create new cards.


PitcherBatter
Throws R or LBats R,S,L
Games PitchedPOS
Games StartedAB
Innings PitchedR
ERAH
K2B
BB3B
HHR
BB
SO
SB

3d. Advanced Rules: Relief Pitchers and Pinch Hitters

Kershaw's SR is 11, which is his endurance. Every time he gives up a hit, walk, hits a batter with a pitch (HBP), throws a wil pitch (WP) or allows a run, lower that by one number. If Judge did hit a home run against him that would be a hit and a run allowed and his SR would drop from 11 to 9. Once he gets to 0 you start to take numbers off of his PB. So if he was down to an SR "1" and then gave up a solo homer to Judge, then he would be at zero so the run and hit Judge scored would instead lower his PB from 2-8 to PB: 2-6 and you would normally take him out of the game for a reliever.

When playing a series or season, a pitcher who starts a game should rest the next 3 games, a reliever who faces at least 12 batters should rest 2 games, and a pitcher who faces at least 6 players should rest 1 game.

3e.      Left handed vs Right Handed batter/pitcher adjustments


Once you have pinch hitters, you generally want to try to use a left-handed batter (LN or LP) against a right-handed pitcher (Throws: Right) and vice versa. On very low or very high Random Numbers, double check this chart in case you need to adjust the result:

11-12 - if Throws Right faces RN or RP, change result to out.
11-15 - if Throws Left faces LN or LP, change result to out.
87 - if Throws Right against LN or LP OR if Throws Left against RN or RP, change result to single and runners advance two bases.
88 - same as 87, except runners only advance one base.
SN and SP never effected, always keep result on card.

4. My season and personal tweaks


4a. Avoiding ridiculous players


A few personal tweaks as I play:


Occasionally a player will have a ridiculously good card based on just 20 inning pitched or 50 at bats, making it appear he is the best batter or best pitcher in the league. I put the following caps on players if they played less than half - or even less than one-quarter of the season:

Very part-time player


(40 or fewer position games, or 8 or fewer starts as a pitcher, or 16 or fewer relief appearances). For these very part-time players:

A batters Home Run range can be no better than 32-36 (5 home run numbers and strikeouts on the card must start by 37). Therefore a player who had a 41-42 for home runs would push those two homers down the card to a 35-36, and then push the same number of triples, than doubles down to the lower numbers. If a player had a 21-28 on home runs (8 home run numbers) then they could only keep 5 home run numbers and would thus be a 24-28 on home runs.

A Very Part-time pitcher cannot have a PB higher than 207.

Half-time player


 (80 or fewer position games, 16 or fewer starts as a pitcher, 32 or fewer relief appearances).

A batters home run range can be no better than 32-38 (7 home run numbers).

A pitchers PB can not be a 2-9, so much be lowered to a PB 2-8.

4b.      International Rules for extra innings


One last option is to play the new international rules for extra innings. The version I am using is that beginning in the 10th inning the next two batters scheduled up basically get intentional walks - so the third batter of the inning always comes up with runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs until someone wins the game. (the actual rule allows managers to pick where to go to in the lineup for those 1st two players to put on base starting in the 11th inning, but I just keep it to the next two batters in the line-up in the 11th).

4c. Rest Rules


The other variation I use is to count every game as a 3-game series with goes to the winner of the game 2 games to 1 UNLESS they win by at least 5 runs, in which case they are awarded a 3 games to 0 edge in the record. If you do this the home team is still allowed to hit in the bottom of the 9th if they are ahead but by less than 5 runs in order to try to turn it into a sweep.

To prevent one ace reliever from coming in and pitching a bunch of innings, I do not allow a pitcher to appear in as many innings as his RR (so an RR of 3, can only appear in part or all of 2 innings).

4d. Tips on storing the team's cards between games.

The following groupings of cards within a team let's you keep track of the pitching rotation and which relievers need to sit out a game or two:

i. 4 cards facing you can start with the starting pitcher who should start the next game. Behind him an backward can be any reliever who needs to skip that game because he faced at least 6 batters last game or 12 batters the game before. Then the pitcher who will start the next game, with any relievers reversed behind him who pitched to at least 12 batters and thus needs to rest that game. Then the 3rd and 4th pitchers, with 4th being the one who started the last game.

ii. The relievers who are rested to pitch the next game can then all be put in any order facing away from you under the starters.

iii. The bench players who do not usually start can then be under the relievers but facing toward you.

iv. The 8- or 9- man line-up (depending on if you are using the DH) would then be facing away from you at the bottom of the stack

Therefore the next time you are ready for the team to play, once side has the starting rotation, the other the starting line-up, and all pitching and bench reserves are in the middle.

4e. Season Blog


Here is my season blog.