If the Chicago Cubs pick up an elite starting pitcher or two to make up for losing Jake Arrieta, they could have the final piece to a return to the World Series two years after winning it all. The Cubs line-up is by far the best in the division, but the Milwaukee Brewers improved in the offseason and are good enough at everything else to contend, and the St. Louis Cardinals pitching gives them a chance if they can pull off trade or two.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are a prototype average across-the-board, while the Cincinnati Reds are unfortunately weak in all aspects and unfortunately could part with one superstar.
Explanation of Ratings: We start by rating each team on a base 20 scale, with a 10-point scale for batting, 5-point scale for starting pitching, 3-point scale for relief pitching and 2-point scale for fielding. This was done by reviewing personnel and results to date and playing simulated games through Statis-Pro baseball (free version here), weighing pitching and batting stats by the team's home ballpark, reviewing which fielders on each team were nominated for a gold glove either of the past two seasons and evaluating all new players. We then assess the new players acquired and present the weaknesses that might be addressed by the July trade deadline.
Chicago (15.0 of 20) - While the three elite teams all appear to be in the AL in the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox, the Cubs are strong in all four areas that they could contend and match up pretty closely if they make the World Series. If the Cubs can get another top starter or two like Tyson Ross (SD) or Chris Archer (TB), they could truly be a contender.
Batters (6.9 of 10) - The Cubs stayed pat with a strong line-up.
Starters (3.6 of 5) - With the loss of Jake Arrieta to the Phillies, the Cubs might need to add Tyson Ross (SD) or Chris Archer (TB) before the trade deadline to truly have the elite rotation to potentially go all the way. - The gamble assuming Tyler Chatwood would pitch well making the move from the altitude of Colorado to Wrigley, and the rotation is solid but not quite elite. If Yu Darvish comes back strong once off DL it will help as well.
Relievers (2.0 of 3) - Adding Steve Cishek from Tampa Bay was a big addition to a pen that already included Brandon Morrow and can certainly shut an opponent down for at least a couple of innings.
Fielding (1.8 of 2) - Contender for the best fielders in baseball with Jason Heyward in RF, and Anthony Rizzo (1b), Ben Zobrist (2b) and Addison Russell (ss) all gold glove nominees.
Milwaukee (13.3 of 20) - On paper, the Brewers made substantial moves to improve the line-up, starting pitchers and relievers - and the great defensive improvement in the outfield helps make them a legit playoff contender. They may still need to add a battery like Cole Hamels and Jonathan Lucroy to beat out the Cubs in the end, but they are right there.
Batters (4.2 of 10) - The additions of Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich give the Brewers a strong first five hitters - through the line-up is still not as deep as other playoff contenders.
Starters (4.5 of 5) - The pickup of Jhoulys Chacin rounds out what could be a fantastic starting rotation.
Relievers (3.0 of 3) - The pickup of Albers from the Nationals was expected to make a great pen even stronger, but it's been the pickup of Jeremy Jeffres added to the already great pen that - if healthy and living up to its potential - could make it the best in the majors. Fielding 1.0 of 2. In addition to their great bats, the additions of Gold Glove nominees Cain and Yelich transform the Brewers from a poor to a solid fielding team.
St. Louis (11.8 of 20) - The Cardinals are certainly solid, but with an average lineup and above average pitching and fielding, they still do not look like they have the overall talent to beat out the Cubs or even the Brewers.
Batters (5.0 of 10) - The Cardinals appeared to be a bit below average until they won the rest of the Marlins' sweepstake by signing one of the top hitters in the game last year in Marcell Ozuna.
Starters (2.1 of 3) - A solid rotation left in place. Relievers (2.1 of 3) - Greg Holland coming from the Rockies seemed like a good bet but has not panned out yet - but this bullpen was and is still loaded.
Fielding (1.1 of 2) - The Marlins Marcell Ozuna is not only a huge addition in the line-up but adds another Gold Glove nominee in the outfield to join perhaps the most dominant defender in the game - catcher Yadier Molina.
Pittsburgh (9.7 of 20) - The Pirates are almost exactly average across-the-board, from their starting pitching to their pen, to their batters. The only spot they are below average is in the field, and that is partly because a great glove at third base is on the bench a good bit due to a great new bat.
Batters (5.1 of 10) - The big addition to the lineup is slugging third baseman Colin Moran, who along with former Tampa Bay outfielder Corey Dickerson makes the line-up above average.
Starters (2.5 of 5) - The addition of Astro Joe Musgrove as a starter helps the rotation just a bit to make them almost exactly average.
(Relievers 1.5 of 3) - The addition of Kyle Click from the Giants is a nice addition but still leaves the pen just average overall.
Fielding (0.6 of 2) - The only problem with Molin hitting so well is that he puts Gold Glove nominee David Freese on the bench for most games, leaving Starling Marte (LF) as the only nominee on the field.
Cincinnati (5.1 of 20) - Scooter Gennett is providing a third big bat, but if he is traded away then the Reds could finish at the bottom as they are weak throughout except for strong fielding and one nice addition in the bullpen. Batters (2.9 of 10) - If Scooter Gennett is traded it will take the Reds down to just a couple of big bats and not a lot of punch in many spots.
Starters (1.2 of 5) Picking up Matt Harvey after his rough season with the Mets may be working out and Anthony James DeSclafani looks like an adequate starter - but the rotation is still a big weakness even prior to assuming Harvey is traded.
Relievers (0.8 of 3) - Jared Hughes was a great pickup from the Brewers, but beyond him, the pen is suspect despite a couple of players having decent starts.
Fielding (1.8 of 2) - For all their weaknesses, the Reds may have the best defense in baseball with 4 Gold Glove nominees in C Tucker Barnhart, 1b Joey Votto, LF Adam Duvall, and of course the amazing cf Billy Hamilton for whom contenders must be considering offers.
Wednesday, June 20, 2018
Monday, June 18, 2018
The 81 Clutch Defensive Players based on recent Gold Glove nominations
One part of the Statis-Pro game that was dated was the reliance merely on double plays to determine if a player was a clutch defensive player. While modern stats measure defensive Wins Above Replacement figures, on fielding I still rely on the gold glove votes by managers and coaches to determine which players get the highest mark - the Clutch Defense 4 that allows for diving catches that can save games.
When I play Statis-Pro I change all of the following players - players who received a gold glove nomination in the past two years - to a "Clutch Defense 4. If the cards sent to me have a player not on this list with a CD4 rating, I lower it to a CD3, which is still the next best rating since other players are a CD1 or CD2.
In a Statis-Pro game, if a reading of CD for Clutch Defense occurs, flip another card or roll the two 8-sided die and refer to the Random Number if you are using Fast Action Cards and cross reference on this chart. If bases are empty ignore this chart - this is only used if at least one runner is on base.
When I play Statis-Pro I change all of the following players - players who received a gold glove nomination in the past two years - to a "Clutch Defense 4. If the cards sent to me have a player not on this list with a CD4 rating, I lower it to a CD3, which is still the next best rating since other players are a CD1 or CD2.
In a Statis-Pro game, if a reading of CD for Clutch Defense occurs, flip another card or roll the two 8-sided die and refer to the Random Number if you are using Fast Action Cards and cross reference on this chart. If bases are empty ignore this chart - this is only used if at least one runner is on base.
| CD1 = no play made | CD Clutch Defense | Chance for Great Play | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Infielders result | CD2 on card | CD3 or 4 on Card but NOT on list below | On Gold Glove list below (treated as CD4) |
| Line out, lead runner doubled off base | 11 to 21 | 11 to 42 | 11 to 56 |
| Grounder, lead runner thrown out | 22 to 32 | 43 to 55 | 57 to 78 |
| No action, return to normal play | 33 to 88 | 56 to 88 | 81 to 88 |
| Outfielders only | CD2 on card | CD3 or 4 on Card but NOT on list below | On Gold Glove list below (treated as CD4) |
| Line out in gap, lead runner doubled off base | 11 to 21 | 11 to 42 | 11 to 56 |
| Line out, runners get back safely | 22 to 32 | 43 to 55 | 57 to 78 |
| No action, return to normal play | 33 to 88 | 56 to 88 | 81 to 88 |
| Catchers Only | CD2 on card | CD3 or 4 on Card but NOT on list below | On Gold Glove list below (treated as CD4) |
| Diving catch of pop up, lead runner doubled off base | 11 to 32 | 11 to 55 | 11 to 78 |
| No Action | 33 to 88 | 56 to 88 | 81 to 88 |
| TEAM | Gold Glove Nominee 2017 or 18 | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Jean Segura | Second Base |
| Arizona | Paul Goldschmidt | First Base |
| Arizona | Zack Greinke | Pitcher |
| Atlanta | Ender Inciarte | Center Field |
| Atlanta | Nick Markakis | Right Field |
| Baltimore | Alex Cobb | Pitcher |
| Baltimore | Chris Davis | First Base |
| Baltimore | Colby Rasmus | Left Field |
| Baltimore | Manny Machado | Third Base |
| Boston | Chris Sale | Pitcher |
| Boston | Dustin Pedroia | Second Base |
| Boston | Jackie Bradley Jr. | Center Field |
| Boston | Mitch Moreland | First Base |
| Boston | Mookie Betts | Right Field |
| Chicago Cubs | Addison Russell | Shortstop |
| Chicago Cubs | Anthony Rizzo | First Base |
| Chicago Cubs | Ben Zobrist | Second Base |
| Chicago Cubs | Jason Heyward | Right Field |
| Cincinnati | Adam Duvall | Left Field |
| Cincinnati | Billy Hamilton | Center Field |
| Cincinnati | Joey Votto | First Base |
| Cincinnati | Tucker Barnhart | Catcher |
| Cleveland | Francisco Lindor | Shortstop |
| Cleveland | Jose Ramirez | Third Base |
| Cleveland | Yan Gomes | Catcher |
| Colorado | Carlos Gonzalez | Right Field |
| Colorado | DJ LeMahieu | Second Base |
| Colorado | Gerardo Parra | Left Field |
| Colorado | Nolan Arenado | Third Base |
| Detroit | Ian Kinsler | Second Base |
| Detroit | James McCann | Catcher |
| Detroit | Jose Iglesias | Shortstop |
| Free Agent | R.A. Dickey | Pitcher |
| Houston | Dallas Keuchel | Pitcher |
| Houston | George Springer | Right Field |
| Houston | Justin Verlander | Pitcher |
| Kansas City | Alex Gordon | Left Field |
| Kansas City | Salvador Perez | Catcher |
| LA Angels | Andrelton Simmons | Shortstop |
| LA Angels | Justin Upton | Left Field |
| LA Angels | Kole Calhoun | Right Field |
| LA Angels | Martin Maldonado | Catcher |
| LA Dodgers | Corey Seager | Shortstop |
| LA Dodgers | Justin Turner | Third Base |
| LA Dodgers | Yasiel Puig | Right Field |
| Milwaukee | Christian Yelich | Left Field |
| Milwaukee | Lorenzo Cain | Center Field |
| Milwaukee | Zach Davies | Pitcher |
| Minnesota | Brian Dozier | Second Base |
| Minnesota | Byron Buxton | Center Field |
| NY Yankees | Aaron Judge | Right Field |
| NY Yankees | Brett Gardner | Left Field |
| NY Yankees | Giancarlo Stanton | Right Field |
| Oakland | Jonathan Lucroy | Catcher |
| Philadelphia | Carlos Santana | First Base |
| Philadelphia | Jake Arrieta | Pitcher |
| Philadelphia | Odubel Herrera | Center Field |
| Pittsburgh | David Freese | Third Base |
| Pittsburgh | Starling Marte | Left Field |
| San Diego | Eric Hosmer | First Base |
| San Diego | Freddy Galvis | Shortstop |
| San Diego | Wil Myers | First Base |
| San Francisco | Brandon Crawford | Shortstop |
| San Francisco | Buster Posey | Catcher |
| San Francisco | Evan Longoria | Third Base |
| San Francisco | Joe Panik | Second Base |
| Seattle | Dee Gordon | Second Base |
| Seattle | Kyle Seager | Third Base |
| Seattle | Robinson Cano | Second Base |
| St. Louis | Adam Wainwright | Pitcher |
| St. Louis | Marcell Ozuna | Left Field |
| St. Louis | Yadier Molina | Catcher |
| Tampa Bay | Kevin Kiermaier | Center Field |
| Texas | Adrian Beltre | Third Base |
| Texas | Carlos Perez | Catcher |
| Texas | Elvis Andrus | Shortstop |
| Toronto | Kevin Pillar | Center Field |
| Toronto | Marcus Stroman | Pitcher |
| Washington | Adam Eaton | Right Field |
| Washington | Anthony Rendon | Third Base |
| Washington | Michael Taylor | Center Field |
Friday, June 15, 2018
Monitoring New MLB Players with Creation of Statis-Pro Cards
New player cards will continue to be added to this link.
The best 5% of all pitchers control the game with a PB rating of 2-9, meaning only a roll or card flip of 10, 11 or 12 give the batter a pitch they can drive. The next 10% have a 2-8 rating, then a 2-7 for anyone who is at least above average (top 45%). The 15% that struggles the worse get the lowest rating of 2-5, leaving everyone from average to mediocre/below average as a PB 2-6.
The following gives the exact average for all pitcher, then the average card for someone in the top four of their rotation (which is an almost identical 2-6). However, the average closer from the 30 teams has a PB 2-8 as one of the top 15% of all pitchers and gives up fewer hits and walks while striking out more.
Below those top three cards are cards for new players this year who do not have a card from last year, and then below that we show the average card for a batter - which has a home run range of 27-32 - or 4 of the 64 ranew dom numbers or rolls from the 11-88 base 8 range. So if a batter has more than 4 home run numbers, or his numbers go higher than 32 or he has more than the 4 walks on an average card, those indicate a strong batter.
Here are the average batters, the cards that should be used when a pitcher is batting, and then some new cards for a few of the players getting time this year who played little or not at all last year.
The best 5% of all pitchers control the game with a PB rating of 2-9, meaning only a roll or card flip of 10, 11 or 12 give the batter a pitch they can drive. The next 10% have a 2-8 rating, then a 2-7 for anyone who is at least above average (top 45%). The 15% that struggles the worse get the lowest rating of 2-5, leaving everyone from average to mediocre/below average as a PB 2-6.
The following gives the exact average for all pitcher, then the average card for someone in the top four of their rotation (which is an almost identical 2-6). However, the average closer from the 30 teams has a PB 2-8 as one of the top 15% of all pitchers and gives up fewer hits and walks while striking out more.
Below those top three cards are cards for new players this year who do not have a card from last year, and then below that we show the average card for a batter - which has a home run range of 27-32 - or 4 of the 64 ranew dom numbers or rolls from the 11-88 base 8 range. So if a batter has more than 4 home run numbers, or his numbers go higher than 32 or he has more than the 4 walks on an average card, those indicate a strong batter.
Thursday, May 31, 2018
LeBron now GOAT; Midnight Announcement Leaves Nevada No. 1
What a 24 hours for basketball! But before we run through
why LeBron James (who will always be tied to our Dwyane Wade) takes the court tonight at Golden State having passed Michael
Jordan as the most valuable player of all time, let's talk about what happened
just before the midnight deadline for players to return to their colleges
rather than stay eligible for the NBA draft in three weeks ...
At 11:33 p.m. ET last night, Cody Martin tweeted that he
would return to Nevada, and at 11:34 his twin Caleb Martin confirmed he would
stay as well - beating the Midnight deadline for players to leave the NBA draft
t return to school. Kentucky, Villanova, Tennessee, Maryland and Virginia Tech
were not so lucky, losing players to drop in the www.valueaddbasketball.com top
25.
However, Kentucky's replacement players were so good that
they actually remained the No. 3 team in the nation. Duke passed them for No.
2, but Villanova fell from No. 2 to No. 10 - with Kansas rounding out the
projected Final Four. Here is the top 25 with notes on teams that lost players
to the NBA once and for all at Midnight.
Team Top 8 Value Add
1. Nevada 52.98 – Cody and Caleb Martin announced
return at 11:33 pm to keep them at No. 1 with 52.98 combined Value Add.
2. Duke 46.65
3. Kentucky stayed in third despite 241st Vanderbilt
(5.17) & 272nd Gabriel (4.93) dropping but being replaced by almost as good
9th and 10th men (8.22 combined Value Add) as Villanova dropped further and
Duke moved ahead of Kentucky’s 45.33
4. Kansas 42.26
5. Oregon 41.52
6. North
Carolina 40.31
7. Mississippi
St. 40.05
8. Louisiana
St. 39.18
9. Auburn 38.66
10. Villanova dropped from 2nd after 25th ranked Spellman
(8.01 Value Add) & 32nd DiVincenzo, (7.84) both left and replacements are a
combined 6.85 to lower team from 47.51 to 38.51
11. Gonzaga 37.94
12. Tennessee dropped from 6th after Alexander, 5.89 left
and with (1.25 replacement) lowered from 42.01 to 37.37
13. Syracuse 37.44
14. North Carolina
St. 35.07
15. Indiana 34.95
16. Virginia 34.62
17. Texas 34.28
18. UCLA 34.26
19. Kansas St. 34.16
20. Michigan
St. 33.63
21. Marquette 33.13
22. Maryland 39.36 – dropped from 9th after 33rd ranked
Huerter (7.82) left and only a 1.23 replacement to lower from 39.36 to 32.77
23. Florida 32.73
24. Iowa 32.49
25. Arizona St. 32.1 (moved from 26th to 25th due to
Virginia Tech dropping out)
Dropped Out - Virginia Tech
33.49 – dropped from 21st to 33rd after 381th ranked Alexander-Walker
(4.25 Value Add) left with only 1.32 replacement Value Add to drop from 33.49
to 30.85
... now back to the inconvenient truth that LeBron James
takes the court tonight as the GOAT, at least if that means the most valuable
player in the history of basketball. Now that all of my friends in North
Carolina and Chicago have stopped reading, let's walk through this.
As Golden State opens as a double digit favorite in the
opener of the NBA Finals, Michael Jordan fans are likely to still be able to
cling to their one argument for his superiority over LeBron James - six
championships.
This ignores the fact that Jordan was one of THREE Hall of
Famers playing at HOF levels (one of those years all three were in the top 15 in MVP voting) were on the 4th, 5th and 6th championship, and that argument leaves Jordan
behind Robert Horry (7 titles), a legitimate contender for the greatest of
all-time in Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and many previous players who had more than six.
In this his 15th season, LeBron James was more than twice as
valuable as Jordan was in his 15th and final season based on career Win Shares
(the only way to truly compare players from different eras).
In fact, in his five seasons without Hall of Famer Scottie
Pippen on the court with him, Jordan never even had a winning season, averaging
just 30 wins and 52 losses. Jordan apologists complained when James went to
Miami to likewise team up with a future Hall of Fame Player in Marquette's Dwyane Wade -
but James did not need a Hall of Fame teammate to make his teams awesome -
averaging a 51-31 record in the years before and after he and Wade teamed up.
So when they had to carry their teams without the help of
another Hall of Fame player, James’ teams were 21 wins better than Jordan's teams.
It is also fair to note that while Pippen finished 5th, 7th
and 9th in MVP voting three of his years with Jordan, and in one year Dennis
Rodman gave Jordan TWO teammates in the top 15 in voting - only one season has
LeBron ever had a top 9 teammate (Wade 7th, as his best player was prior to James' arrival). In short, Jordan never produced nearly the same results as Jordan
EXCEPT when he had Hall of Fame support far superior to the poor cast James
dragged to the NBA Finals some of his years.
The three years before Jordan arrived in Chicago, the Bulls
averaged a 36-46 record. Jordan played three seasons before another Hall of
Fame player arrived, and during his three years befoer adding Pippen Jordan's teams averaged the
identical 36-46 record. Jordan scored a lot - but his team was no better with
him until another Hall of Famer came along.
Compare this to the transformation of the Cavs after James’
arrival. The Cavs prior to James were far worse than the Bulls prior to Jordan,
with a 17-65 record. For an apples to apples, they averaged 25-67 in the 3
years prior to James arrival (11 games worse than the pre-Jordan Bulls), yet in
their first three years with James the averaged 42-40 for a 17 average
improvement in wins to ZERO for Jordan.
Jordan did not lead his team to a winning record until he
was 25 and Pippen had arrived - but by age 25 James finished his seventh season
having taken his Cavs to an average mark of 50-32 before leaving to Miami to
team up with a player almost at Pippen’s level in Wade.
The difference continued throughout their careers. In the
years before or after James and Jordan left and arrived, James’ teams averaged
being 22 games better with him than without him and Jordan's teams did not
improve at all until an extra Hall of Famer was added to the roster.
The dreadful Cavs improved 18 games as soon as the teenager
James took the court. When he went from the Cavs to the Heat the Cavs lost 42
more games and the Heat won 11 more games. When he went back to the Cavs they
won 20 more games and the Heat lost 17 more, for an average of 22 more wins a
season with than without James.
Season
|
LeBron arriving or departing
|
W
|
L
|
Before and After
|
2003-04
|
Cleveland Cavaliers
|
35
|
47
|
18
|
2009-10
|
Cleveland Cavaliers
|
61
|
21
|
42
|
2010-11
|
Miami Heat
|
58
|
24
|
11
|
2013-14
|
Miami Heat
|
54
|
28
|
17
|
2014-15
|
Cleveland Cavaliers
|
53
|
29
|
20
|
Teams 22 games better w/LeBron
|
22
|
Contrast this with the amazing lack of difference Jordan’s
departures and returns made. When he arrived from UNC he made the Bulls one
game worse at 27-55, and as noted did not improve them one game over his first
three years. When he took the 1993-94 season off the Bulls were only two games
worse.
James critics will note that Jordan then came back for only
part of the 1994-95 season, but he was there for the entire playoffs and the
team did just as well as they did the year before without him - a loss in the
Conference Semifinals. The next year they had a monster year - but remember
that was only after adding a THIRD Hall of Fame Player in Dennis Rodman to the
them.
And then Jordan played his final two seasons with the
Wizards’ - his 14th and 15th seasons, but unlike James’ 14th and 15th seasons
he was simply not very good, getting a couple of MVP mentions the first year and then having a nice farewell tour. The Wizards’ were 10 games worse when he arrived,
and just as good the year after he left.
That means the only time a team was more than two games better the year after or
before Jordan left was after the 1997-98 season - WHEN ALL THREE HALL OF FAME
PLAYERS LEFT AT ONCE.
Season
|
Jordan arriving or departing
|
W
|
L
|
Before and After
|
1983-84
|
Chicago Bulls
|
27
|
55
|
-1
|
1992-93
|
Chicago Bulls
|
57
|
25
|
2
|
1994-95
|
Chicago Bulls
|
47
|
35
|
-8
|
1997-98
|
Chicago Bulls***
|
62
|
20
|
41
|
2000-01
|
Washington Wizards
|
19
|
63
|
-10
|
2001-02
|
Washington Wizards
|
37
|
45
|
0
|
Teams 4 games better w/Jordan
|
4
|
*** because of the 1998-99 strike, the Bulls record is projected with 21 wins
Jordan was an incredible leader of teams with other Hall of
Fame players, and he knew how to close when his teammates were superior to all
the opponents they would face. I will even grant that his three best seasons may have been slightly better than any of James' seasons.
However, James’ ability to take teams that should not be in
the playoffs all the way to the NBA Finals time and time again is a much
dramatic than Jordan’s ability to make sure his Hall of Fame teammates did not
blow championships.
James passed Jordan and he is still playing strong.
Unless you want to argue that Horry is greater than Jordan
because of the extra championship, it is time to admit there is a new all time
King.
Monday, May 28, 2018
Basic Statis-Pro Basic Game - Learn and play in Just a Minute
Quick Start Page
Entire Statis-Pro game can be played with only this top page, dice and player cards
A. Traditional 6-sided dice for the PB rating of 2 to 12.
B. Two 8-sided dice of different colors to create a Random Number of 11 to 88.
C. Use 20-sided die result for all "Out" results (if a hit occurs, ignore unless 18-20).
If you do not have a 20-sided dice, just score all Outs as a flyout with runners holding,
If you do not have a 20-sided dice, just score all Outs as a flyout with runners holding,
When Pitchers bat, skip the PB and draw the random number with the following results: 1b7: 11-12, 1b8: 13-14,
1b9: 15-16, 2b8: 17, K: 18-52, W: 53-54, Out: 55-88. OBR: E, SP: E, Sac: CC
Once a runner is on base, you can use one of these three options before the next batter hits.
1b9: 15-16, 2b8: 17, K: 18-52, W: 53-54, Out: 55-88. OBR: E, SP: E, Sac: CC
Once a runner is on base, you can use one of these three options before the next batter hits.
1 die
|
Extra Base on hit
|
Stealing base
|
Bunting
|
|---|---|---|---|
1
|
OBR A, B or C Xtra base
|
SP A, B or C steals
|
Sacrifice, OBR: A batter safe for hit
|
2
|
OBR A or B Xtra base
|
SP A or B steals
|
Sacrifice
|
3
|
OBR A Xtra base
|
SP A steals
|
Sacrifice
|
4
|
Xtra base only if 2 outs
|
Only SP AA steals
|
Sacrifice
|
5
|
Hold base
|
Hold
|
Strikeout
|
6
|
Roll again for throw
|
Roll again for throw
|
Leader Runner out
|
When trying to take an extra base or by stealing on the chart above, the runner can only be out
on a roll of 6. On rolls of 1-5 he just fails to take the extra base if his OBR or SP is not good enough.
However, if a 6 is rolled, then there is a close play and he will be either safe or out.
The 6-sided die is rolled one more time, and this time if the number is equal to or less than
the outfielders throwing arm (T5, T4, T3 or T2) then he is out. For stealing, a TA always
throws the base stealer out, while a TB throws him out on 1-4 and a TC on 1-2.
20-Sided Die result (always use if "Out," and if roll is number 20 then always use)
1. Double play 6-4-3
2. Double Play 4-6-3 OBR A batter beats throw to 1st
3. Double Play 5-4-3, OBR A or B batter beats throw to 1st
4. Double Play 3-4-3, OBR A, B or C batter beats throw to 1st
5. Double Play, OBR A, B or C batter beats throw to 1st (If no one on 1st base
on a double play above, the throw is to 1st base for out. With 1st and 3rd base, defense can
say INFIELD IN before roll, and instead of double play batter out and runners now 2nd and 3rd base)
6. Lead forced runner out, others advance (shortstop to lead base)
7. Lead forced runner out, others advance (2nd base to lead base)
8. Lead forced runner out, others advance
9. Line out
10. infield fly
11. Fly out to left field, runners hold (LN or LP is fly out to right field)
12. Fly out to left field, runners hold
13. Fly out to center field, OBR A on 2nd or 3rd advance
14. Fly out to right field, runner OBR A or B on 2nd or 3rd advance
15. Fly out to right field, runner on 2nd or 3rd advance
16. Batter grounds out, runners advance
17. Batter grounds out, runners advance
18. ROLL two 6-sided dice AGAIN and refer to green to see which fielder might make 1-base error:
19. Possible 2-base error, use same process as “18” above but if error results then 2 bases
| 2 dice | Check for error | 2 dice | Check for error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 or 3 | 1b | 8 | 2B |
| 4 | P | 9 | LF |
| 5 | CF | 10 | C |
| 6 | 3b | 11 | RF |
| 7 | SS | 12 | SS |
Look at position, then roll 20-sided Die again - subtract 10 if roll is from 11-20 - so result = 1 to 10.
If that number is LOWER THAN or EQUAL TO the E number on the fielder
then score as 1-base error, if not then OUT and runners advance one base.
(e.g. Aaron Judge is E2, so roll of 3 or 13 NOT error)
If a 18 or 19 occurred on a hit, then use the 20-sided die to determine if error where ball was hit.
20. If noone on base OR you opt to play "simple rules" then a 20 on an out is a flyout to CF.
If anyone is on base when a 20 is rolled, then ignore the normal PB and RN on the batter or pitcher card, INSTEAD use those dice for the numbers below:
If anyone is on base when a 20 is rolled, then ignore the normal PB and RN on the batter or pitcher card, INSTEAD use those dice for the numbers below:
2 - BD - Clutch Batting: Look up the Random Number of 11-88 on batters card for bases-clearing double, triple or home run or if not in range then ignore.
3 - BD - Clutch Batting (same as "2")
4 - BD - Clutch Batting (same as "2")
Numbers 5 through 9 use the two 6-sided dice to pick a position below, and the 11 to 88 on the chart:
5 - CF
6 (1 & 5) - LF
6 (2 & 4) - RF
6 (3 & 3) - P
7 (1 & 6) - 1B
7 (2 & 5) - 2B
7 (3 & 4) - 3B
8 (4 & 4) - C
8 (any other combination) - SS
9 - CF
| CD1 = no play made | CD Clutch Defense | Chance for Great Play | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infielders result | CD2 | CD3 | CD4 | |||
| Line out, lead runner doubled | 11 to 21 | 11 to 42 | 11 to 56 | |||
| Grounder, lead runner thrown out | 22 to 32 | 43 to 55 | 57 to 78 | |||
| No action, return to normal play | 33 to 88 | 56 to 88 | 81 to 88 | |||
| Outfielders only | CD2 | CD3 | CD4 | |||
| Line out in gap, lead runner doubled off base | 11 to 21 | 11 to 42 | 11 to 56 | |||
| Line out, runners get back safely | 22 to 32 | 43 to 55 | 57 to 78 | |||
| No action, return to normal play | 33 to 88 | 56 to 88 | 81 to 88 | |||
| Catchers Only | CD2 | CD3 | CD4 | |||
| Diving catch of pop up, lead runner doubled off base | 11 to 32 | 11 to 55 | 11 to 78 | |||
| No Action | 33 to 88 | 56 to 88 | 81 to 88 |
10 - Use Z Chart - if you do not have Z Charts then ignore
11 - Use Z Chart - if you do not have Z Charts then ignore
12 - Use Z Chart - if you do not have Z Charts then ignore
| Random Number | If Z Play Results, read random number below. | Random | If Z Play Fielding for CD 1 or 2 | If CD 3 or 4 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Catcher ejected | 11 to 34 ignore if noone on 1st | ||||
| 12 | Pitcher ejected | 11 | 14 | G3, runners advance | 3-6-3 double play | |
| 13 | Batter ejected | 15 | 18 | 4-3 runners advance | 4-6-3 double play | |
| 14 | Single, P, C & 1b ejected | 21 | 24 | 6-3 runners advance | 6-4-3 double play | |
| 15 | Batter ejected | 25 | 28 | 5-3 runners advance | 5-4-3 double play | |
| 16 | Pitcher ejected | 31 | 34 | 1-3 runner advance | 1-6-3 double play | |
| 17 | Walk for pitcher going to mouth | 35 | 38 | 1B - E0 to 3, out runners advance | E4-10 Single | |
| 18 | Batter out for illegal bat | 41 | 44 | 2B - E0 to 3, out runners advance | E4-10 Single | |
| 21 | Rained out | 45 | 48 | SS - E0 to 4, out runners advance | E5-10 Single | |
| 22 | Rained out | 51 | 54 | 3b - E0 to 5, out runners advance | E6 -10 Single | |
| 23 | April games only rain out | 55 | 63 | LF - E0 to 1 Out | E2-10 Double, runners score | |
| 24 | April games only rain out | 64 | 74 | CF - E0 to 2 Out | E3-10 Double, runners score | |
| 25 | April games only rain out | 75 | 83 | RF - E0 to 2 Out | E3-10 Double, runners score | |
| 26 | Rain delay, both pitchers PB lowered by 1 | 84 | 87 | C - E0 to 3 catch in stands | E4-10 foul | |
| 27 | Double, but if runner on 1st ruled out for batter passing | 88 | Triple Play - line out & runners doubled off | |||
| 28 | Strikeout, wild pitch, batter safe at 1st | |||||
| 31 | Double erased, batter out for missing 1st base | If Z Play Injury | ||||
| 32 | If man on first, steals and SS ejected | Injury play | Player hurt | |||
| 33 | Runner out stealing second and ejected | 11 | 12 | Foul | C | |
| 34 | IF man on first, picked off 1-3-4-3 but a runner on 3b scores | 13 | 14 | Foul | 1b | |
| 35 | IF man on first, picked off 1-3-6, all others advance | 15 | 16 | Foul | 2b | |
| 36 | If man on 3rd, catcher picks off | 17 | 18 | Foul | 3b | |
| 37 | Strikeout, passed ball batter safe at first if unoccopied or 2 outs | 21 | 22 | Foul | SS | |
| 38 | Single runners advance 2, but batter out rounding 1st | 23 | 25 | Double | LF | |
| 41 | Batter out for running into slow roller | 26 | 28 | Inside Park Home Run | CF | |
| 42 | Only runners on 1st and 2nd, grounder hits runner on 1st who is ruled out but batter gets hit | 31 | 33 | Triple | RF | |
| 43 | Catcher interference, batter gets 1st | 34 | Foul | Batter | ||
| 44 | Batter out on Fan interference | 35 | 36 | Foul | C | |
| 45 to 78 | Z chart fielding | 37 | 41 | Double, runners score | 1b and RF | |
| 81 to 88 | Z chart injury | 42 | 44 | Double, runners score | 2b and CF | |
| 45 | 47 | Single, runners 2 bases | SS and LF | |||
| 48 | Foul | Batter | ||||
| 51 | 53 | Foul | 3b and P | |||
| 54 | 58 | Double, runners score | LF and CF | |||
| 61 | 65 | Double, runners score | CF and RF | |||
| 66 | 68 | Single, runners 1 base | 1b | |||
| 71 | 73 | Line out 2b | 2b | |||
| 74 | 76 | Line out 3b | 3b | |||
| 77 | 81 | Line out SS | SS | |||
| 82 | 84 | Foul | C | |||
| 85 | 88 | Double, runners score | CF |
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
You can use the simple version of the game by printing just the 1st page above to use with dice. If playing a game where a surface space is not available, the photo below gives the suggested set-up; 1) the sheet above laid at the bottom of a box; 2, The visiting line-up (Astros in photo) in the upper right photo, visiting pitcher (Verlander) below them, , home pitcher (Severino) below him, and home ine-up (Yankees) stacked in the lower right corner. This allows the dice to be rolled within the box. Reserve players can be put in an envelope elswhere to pull out when needed, and you can track results on a score sheet or pad.
However, if not using the simple version, then additional charts and other information is
included in the rest of this document:
included in the rest of this document:
Table of Contents
1. For Experienced Players
a. Dice to replace Fast Action Deck (PB, RN, Fielding results)
b. Check for Errors (roll of 18 or 19)
c. Check for BD, CD or Z plays (roll of 20 IF someone on base)
d. Experienced Readers Stop here
2. Items if you do not have a board, charts from game
a. Charts for taking extra base on hit, BD, CD, Z play
b. Bunt and Steal Option
3. 1st Timers
a. Sample game with Dodgers and Yankees player cards to play your first game
b. Pictures of cards and dice alongside on-line dice and Fast Action Cards
c. Make or Order your own cards
d. Advance Rules for Pitchers endurance and rest
e. Left handed vs Right Handed batter/pitcher adjustments
4. My season and personal tweaks
a. Avoiding ridiculous player cards
b. International Rules for extra innings
c. Rest Rules
c. Rest Rules
1. For Experienced Players
If you have played Statis-Pro baseball before, but do not have a set of fast action cards with you, you can instead roll the following dice for each batter (or use dice simulator for all at www.roll-dice-online.com):
1a. Dice to replace Fast Action Deck (PB, RN, Fielding Results)
You can use the first page before the table of contents to use the results on that one page. 98% of the time you play will be spent on that first page using the typical Statis-Pro results by simply letting 5 dice yield the results that otherwise result from the Fast Action Cards.A. Two traditional 6-sided dice for the PB rating of 2 to 12.
B. Two 8-sided dice of different colors to create a Random Number of 11 to 88.
C. A 20-sided dice for "Out" results that will replace all of the other parts of the Fast Action Deck by giving you the result of the out below. You normally only need to look at the 20-sided die on an "Out" result, however if the result is a hit or an out and the roll is 18, 19 or 20 then you will need to review the 1 to 20 results on the 1st QUICK START page above the table of contents for Out results on 20-sided die.
1b. Check for Errors
As detailed in green on the 1st sheet.
1c. Check for BD, CD or Z Plays (if roll 20 and men on base)
The first sheet gives the option of skipping the clutch batting, clutch fielding and unusual plays, but unless you choose the simple game, then a roll of "20" on the 20-side dice will overrule the Hit or Out that would have resulted on the Batter or Pitcher card and the rest of the dice will be used to determine based on the following:
If 20-SIDED DIE = See above in yellow
The first sheet gives the option of skipping the clutch batting, clutch fielding and unusual plays, but unless you choose the simple game, then a roll of "20" on the 20-side dice will overrule the Hit or Out that would have resulted on the Batter or Pitcher card and the rest of the dice will be used to determine based on the following:
If 20-SIDED DIE = See above in yellow
1d. Experienced Readers with the Statis-Pro Board and Charts can play without reading further.
2. Items if you do not have a board, Charts
I
2a. Charts for taking extra base on hit, BD, CD, Z play
The original chart for trying to take an extra base on a hit is below, however it was the on part of the game that was unrealistic since further studies showed that runners only advance from 1st to 3rd on about 30 percent of singles, and are only thrown out a little over 1% of the time
Therefore, we recommend the folowing adjustments if the offensive player chooses to try to take an extra base:
1. Lower the safe range listed below by 20 with 0 or 1 out, and if there are 2 outs use the numbers below but do not add 20. Also, if the runner advances AND the random number is between 11-18 then a batter with either an OBR A or B takes another base on the throw attempt at the runner, and if the number is 21-28 AND the runner advances than only a batter who is OBR A can advance.
2. However, if the Random Number is NOT within the range listed then simply keep the runner at the base as he saw he probably could not make it to the next base. The runner is only thrown out on the following Random Numbers in all scenarios:
81-82 = T5 throws out runner trying to advance, others hold.
83-84 = same as above, except T4 or T5 throws runner out.
85-86 = same as above, execpt T3, T4 or T5 throws runner out
87-88 = runner trying to advance thrown out.
2b. Bunt and Steal Option
If you want to bunt or try to steal a base then roll the 20-sided die again and look at the chart below while referring to the T on the catcher's card and either the OBR or SP on the batter or runner's card as indicated. If you would rater bu| Steal Option | Bunt Option | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Die | Steal attempt (add 1 to roll if 3B) | Die | Bunt |
| 1 | Catcher throws out (others hold) | 1 | Single for Batter OBR A-C, otherwise Sacrifice |
| 2 | Catcher TA-B throws out (others hold) | 2 | Single for Batter OBR A-B, otherwise Sacrifice |
| 3 | Catcher TA-B throws out (others hold) | 3 | Single for Batter OBR A-B, otherwise Sacrifice |
| 4 | Catcher TA throws out (others hold) | 4 | Single for Batter OBR A, otherwise Sacrifice |
| 5 | Catcher TA throws out (others hold) | 5 | Single only if Batter OBR A AND Sac AA, otherwise Sacrifice |
| 6 | Hold | 6 | Sacrifice |
| 7 | Sp AA steals, others hold | 7 | Sacrifice |
| 8 | Sp AA steals, others hold | 8 | Sacrifice |
| 9 | Sp AA steals, others hold | 9 | Sacrifice |
| 10 | Sp AA steals, others hold | 10 | Sacrifice if batter Sac AA-CC, otherwise lead runner out |
| 11 | SP A steals, others hold | 11 | Sacrifice if batter Sac AA-CC, otherwise lead runner out |
| 12 | SP A steals, others hold | 12 | Sacrifice if batter Sac AA-BB, otherwise lead runner out |
| 13 | SP A-B steals, others hold | 13 | Sacrifice if batter Sac AA-BB, otherwise lead runner out |
| 14 | SP A-B steals, others hold | 14 | Sacrifice if batter Sac AA, otherwise lead runner out |
| 15 | SP A-C steals, others hold | 15 | Sacrifice if batter Sac AA, otherwise lead runner out |
| 16 | SP A-C steals, others hold | 16 | Popout |
| 17 | SP A-D steals, others hold | 17 | Lead runner thrown out |
| 18 | SP A-D steals, others hold | 18 | Lead runner thrown out and if runner on first, then double play with both him and batter thrown out |
| 19 | Roll 20-sided die again, if roll equal or lower than catchers E number then 1-base error, otherwise runner holds | 19 | Roll 20-sided die again, if roll equal or lower than catchers E number then 1-base error, otherwise runner holds |
| 20 | Same as 19 except 2-base error | 20 | Same as 19 except 2-base error |
3. 1st Timers
You can start by playing a sample game here between the Yankees and Dodgers, and then see "Make or Order Your Own Cards" (my order from big32dave at eBay was emailed within 2 hours or calculate on this google sheet) below whether to manage current or all-time major league players or player cards for minor league, college, American Legion, high school or even little league players.
3a. Sample game with Dodgers and Yankees player cards to play your first game
1. If you have or can get a Statis-Pro Fast Action card deck you flip one card to get the PB (the first card below shows a "9" so it would be on Judge's card), then a second card to get the "Random" number (on the second card below the Random number is "27" which would be a home run because Judge's card shows a home run occurs on a 25-35 on his card. (Not that if the PB number were lower it would have been on Kershaw's card, and been in his stikeout range of 23-46.
2. You can generate the same results by rolling two traditional 6-sided dice and adding up the total of the dots (in this case "9" based on the blue dice to give the same result as the PB9 if you were using cards). You also need two 8-sided dice with the first number entering the "10s" number (we use yellow here so the "2" in yellow indicates the total will be 20-something) and the second die with a "7" on it makes the roll 27 to yield the same result as the card - a home run for Judge. The 20-sided roll of 1 day is used in advanced rules below.
3b. Pictures of cards and dice alongside on-line dice and Fast Action Cards
3. If you do not have the Face Action Cards or the dice, you can simply generate the rolls randomly on line by going to www.roll-dice-online.com. You need to first click "6" for Numer of Sides and Roll Dice - in this case generated a total of 3 + 6 that must be added together to total of 9 as the PB. You then must hit "8" by Number of sides for the random number and in this case the order is important as the "2" and then "7" rolls in the middle roll is read as 27 - the home run for Judge. The 20-sided roll of 1 day is used in advanced rules below.
Here are the rest of the Yankees in addition to Judge and Hicks above to give you the 9-man line-up.
3c. Make or Order Your Own Cards
Once you get more cards and can pinch hit or change pitchers, you can add these factors.
To get extra cards, you can order sets of cards for this or previous seasons through eBay for as little as $10, or even type in the stats to calculate your own cards on this google sheet. You just need the following stats to type into the google sheet and create new cards.
3d. Advanced Rules: Relief Pitchers and Pinch Hitters
Kershaw's SR is 11, which is his endurance. Every time he gives up a hit, walk, hits a batter with a pitch (HBP), throws a wil pitch (WP) or allows a run, lower that by one number. If Judge did hit a home run against him that would be a hit and a run allowed and his SR would drop from 11 to 9. Once he gets to 0 you start to take numbers off of his PB. So if he was down to an SR "1" and then gave up a solo homer to Judge, then he would be at zero so the run and hit Judge scored would instead lower his PB from 2-8 to PB: 2-6 and you would normally take him out of the game for a reliever.When playing a series or season, a pitcher who starts a game should rest the next 3 games, a reliever who faces at least 12 batters should rest 2 games, and a pitcher who faces at least 6 players should rest 1 game.
3e. Left handed vs Right Handed batter/pitcher adjustments
11-12 - if Throws Right faces RN or RP, change result to out.
11-15 - if Throws Left faces LN or LP, change result to out.
87 - if Throws Right against LN or LP OR if Throws Left against RN or RP, change result to single and runners advance two bases.
88 - same as 87, except runners only advance one base.
SN and SP never effected, always keep result on card.
4. My season and personal tweaks
4a. Avoiding ridiculous players
A few personal tweaks as I play:
Very part-time player
(40 or fewer position games, or 8 or fewer starts as a pitcher, or 16 or fewer relief appearances). For these very part-time players:
A batters Home Run range can be no better than 32-36 (5 home run numbers and strikeouts on the card must start by 37). Therefore a player who had a 41-42 for home runs would push those two homers down the card to a 35-36, and then push the same number of triples, than doubles down to the lower numbers. If a player had a 21-28 on home runs (8 home run numbers) then they could only keep 5 home run numbers and would thus be a 24-28 on home runs.
A Very Part-time pitcher cannot have a PB higher than 207.
Half-time player
(80 or fewer position games, 16 or fewer starts as a pitcher, 32 or fewer relief appearances).
A batters home run range can be no better than 32-38 (7 home run numbers).
A pitchers PB can not be a 2-9, so much be lowered to a PB 2-8.
4b. International Rules for extra innings
4c. Rest Rules
The other variation I use is to count every game as a 3-game series with goes to the winner of the game 2 games to 1 UNLESS they win by at least 5 runs, in which case they are awarded a 3 games to 0 edge in the record. If you do this the home team is still allowed to hit in the bottom of the 9th if they are ahead but by less than 5 runs in order to try to turn it into a sweep.
To prevent one ace reliever from coming in and pitching a bunch of innings, I do not allow a pitcher to appear in as many innings as his RR (so an RR of 3, can only appear in part or all of 2 innings).
4d. Tips on storing the team's cards between games.
The following groupings of cards within a team let's you keep track of the pitching rotation and which relievers need to sit out a game or two:
i. 4 cards facing you can start with the starting pitcher who should start the next game. Behind him an backward can be any reliever who needs to skip that game because he faced at least 6 batters last game or 12 batters the game before. Then the pitcher who will start the next game, with any relievers reversed behind him who pitched to at least 12 batters and thus needs to rest that game. Then the 3rd and 4th pitchers, with 4th being the one who started the last game.
ii. The relievers who are rested to pitch the next game can then all be put in any order facing away from you under the starters.
iii. The bench players who do not usually start can then be under the relievers but facing toward you.
iv. The 8- or 9- man line-up (depending on if you are using the DH) would then be facing away from you at the bottom of the stack
Therefore the next time you are ready for the team to play, once side has the starting rotation, the other the starting line-up, and all pitching and bench reserves are in the middle.
4e. Season Blog
Here is my season blog.
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