Sunday, December 30, 2018

Top 100 Defensive Players in College Basketball

Here are the top 100 defenders in college basketball based on calculations at www.valueaddbasketball.com as of December 29, 2018. These are the personal AdjD calculations, which tells you how much each player lowers his team's AdjD at www.kenpom.com. This system was developed in 2011 and explained in this post and has undergone only minor adjustments.


RnkTop 100 DefendersTeamHeightConfClassAdjD
1Matisse ThybulleWashington6-foot-5P124 Sr-4.45
2Ethan HappWisconsin6-foot-10B104 Sr-4.32
3Zion WilliamsonDuke6-foot-7ACC1 Fr-4.14
4Nicolas ClaxtonGeorgia6-foot-11SEC2 So-4.11
5Dedric LawsonKansas6-foot-9B123 Jr-4.04
6Tyler BeyColorado6-foot-7P122 So-3.89
7Matt MooneyTexas Tech6-foot-3B124 Sr-3.8
8Bruno FernandoMaryland6-foot-10B102 So-3.72
9Jon TeskeMichigan7-foot-1B103 Jr-3.68
10Matt RaffertyFurman6-foot-8SC4 Sr-3.61
11Ty JeromeVirginia6-foot-5ACC3 Jr-3.59
12Ed PoliteRadford6-foot-5BSth4 Sr-3.57
13Brandon ClarkeGonzaga6-foot-8WCC3 Jr-3.5
14Jordan MurphyMinnesota6-foot-7B104 Sr-3.48
15Aric HolmanMississippi St.6-foot-10SEC4 Sr-3.46
16Daniel GaffordArkansas6-foot-11SEC2 So-3.41
17Brandon GilbeckWestern Illinois7-foot-0Sum4 Sr-3.4
18Xavier TillmanMichigan St.6-foot-8B102 So-3.39
19Jeromy RodriguezEast Tennessee St.6-foot-7SC3 Jr-3.33
20Trent ForrestFlorida St.6-foot-4ACC3 Jr-3.29
21Braxton KeyVirginia6-foot-8ACC3 Jr-3.28
22Josh ReavesPenn St.6-foot-5B104 Sr-3.24
23Bol BolOregon7-foot-2P121 Fr-3.22
24Cortez EdwardsSouthern Mississippi6-foot-2CUSA4 Sr-3.18
25Kevarrius HayesFlorida7-foot-9SEC4 Sr-3.13
26Zavier SimpsonMichigan7-foot-0B103 Jr-3.12
27Grant WilliamsTennessee6-foot-7SEC3 Jr-3.1
28Chuma OkekeAuburn6-foot-8SEC2 So-3.1
29Ebuka IzunduMiami FL6-foot-10ACC4 Sr-3.08
30Barry BrownKansas St.6-foot-3B124 Sr-3.07
31Nick RakocevicSouthern California6-foot-11P123 Jr-3.07
32Kylor KelleyOregon St.7-foot-0P123 Jr-3.06
33Nickeil Alexander-WalkerVirginia Tech6-foot-5ACC2 So-3.06
34Nate GrimesFresno St.6-foot-8MWC3 Jr-3.05
35Charles BasseyWestern Kentucky6-foot-11CUSA1 Fr-3.04
36Tariq OwensTexas Tech6-foot-10B124 Sr-3.03
37Dylan WindlerBelmont6-foot-8OVC4 Sr-2.98
38Jordan NworaLouisville6-foot-7ACC2 So-2.95
39Marcus Santos-SilvaVirginia Commonwealth6-foot-7A102 So-2.92
40Alpha DialloProvidence6-foot-7BE3 Jr-2.91
41Dhamir Cosby-RoundtreeVillanova6-foot-9BE2 So-2.89
42Dylan OsetkowskiTexas6-foot-9B124 Sr-2.87
43Cameron KrutwigLoyola Chicago6-foot-9MVC2 So-2.87
44RJ WilliamsBoise St.6-foot-7MWC2 So-2.87
45Isaiah RobyNebraska6-foot-8B103 Jr-2.86
46Nate RenfroSan Francisco6-foot-8WCC4 Sr-2.86
47Javon BessSt. Louis6-foot-6A104 Sr-2.84
48King McClureBaylor6-foot-3B124 Sr-2.82
49Tre'Shawn ThurmanNevada6-foot-8MWC4 Sr-2.81
50Tristan ClarkBaylor6-foot-9B122 So-2.77
51Kamar BaldwinButler6-foot-1BE3 Jr-2.76
52Shaq BuchananMurray St.6-foot-3OVC4 Sr-2.75
53Elijah ChildsBradley6-foot-7MVC2 So-2.74
54Neemias QuetaUtah St.6-foot-11MWC1 Fr-2.74
55BJ StithOld Dominion6-foot-5CUSA4 Sr-2.73
56Jehyve FloydHoly Cross6-foot-8Pat4 Sr-2.72
57Xavier SneedKansas St.6-foot-5B123 Jr-2.72
58Talen Horton-TuckerIowa St.6-foot-4B121 Fr-2.71
59PJ WashingtonKentucky6-foot-8SEC2 So-2.7
60Zylan CheathamArizona St.6-foot-8P124 Sr-2.69
61Tacko FallCentral Florida7-foot-6Amer4 Sr-2.66
62Alexis YetnaSouth Florida6-foot-8Amer1 Fr-2.64
63Tres TinkleOregon St.6-foot-8P123 Jr-2.63
64Juwan MorganIndiana6-foot-8B104 Sr-2.62
65Jaime EcheniqueWichita St.6-foot-11Amer3 Jr-2.62
66Tyrese HaliburtonIowa St.6-foot-5B121 Fr-2.59
67Trhae MitchellSouth Alabama6-foot-6SB3 Jr-2.58
68Oshae BrissettSyracuse6-foot-8ACC2 So-2.56
69Keith BraxtonSt. Francis PA6-foot-5NEC3 Jr-2.55
70Jordan GoodwinSt. Louis6-foot-3A102 So-2.53
71Jarrett CulverTexas Tech6-foot-6B122 So-2.52
72Brekkott ChapmanWeber St.6-foot-9BSky4 Sr-2.52
73Anthony LawrenceMiami FL6-foot-7ACC4 Sr-2.52
74Charles MatthewsMichigan6-foot-6B104 Sr-2.52
75Alex PeacockTexas St.6-foot-7SB4 Sr-2.51
76Jack WhiteDuke6-foot-7ACC3 Jr-2.5
77Brady ManekOklahoma6-foot-9B122 So-2.49
78Elston JonesUC Irvine6-foot-9BW4 Sr-2.49
79Kenny GoinsMichigan St.6-foot-7B104 Sr-2.49
80Nick MuszynskiBelmont6-foot-11OVC1 Fr-2.49
81Doug TaylorOhio6-foot-9MAC4 Sr-2.48
82Tamenang ChohBrown6-foot-5Ivy2 So-2.47
83Nate Pierre-LouisTemple6-foot-4Amer2 So-2.46
84Osun OsunniyiSt. Bonaventure6-foot-10A101 Fr-2.44
85Paschal ChukwuSyracuse7-foot-2ACC4 Sr-2.43
86Chuba OhamsFordham6-foot-8A103 Jr-2.43
87Mark VitalBaylor6-foot-5B122 So-2.42
88Sagaba KonateWest Virginia6-foot-8B123 Jr-2.41
89Elijah Mitrou-LongTexas6-foot-1B123 Jr-2.41
90Donta HallAlabama6-foot-9SEC4 Sr-2.39
91Kaleb WessonOhio St.6-foot-9B102 So-2.38
92Jarrell BrantleyCharleston Southern6-foot-7BSth4 Sr-2.37
93Elijah ThomasClemson6-foot-9ACC4 Sr-2.36
94Isaiah LiversMichigan6-foot-7B102 So-2.36
95Chris SilvaSouth Carolina6-foot-9SEC4 Sr-2.34
96Jaxson HayesTexas6-foot-11B121 Fr-2.34
97Luke MayeNorth Carolina6-foot-8ACC4 Sr-2.33
98Chase JeterArizona6-foot-10P123 Jr-2.33
99James BanksGeorgia Tech6-foot-9ACC3 Jr-2.32
100Jason BurnellJacksonville St.6-foot-7OVC4 Sr-2.32

Value Add Basketball Year End Player Calculations

This email went out to our sports list the morning of December 30. To be added to the list, email pudnerjohn@gmail.com with "add to sports list" in the subject field.

Of the 4,095 college players to take the court this season, Dedric Lawson's ability to improve Kansas an average of 13.29 points per game on offense and defense makes him the most valuable player in the country - and here are the 20 most valuable listed at www.valueaddbasketball.com. Look for the CBS 247 story on the top 8 match-up between St. John's Shamorie Ponds and Marquette's Markus Howard, who just scored 62 points in a 29 minute stretch on 13 of 15 three-pointers and 13 of 13 free throws to shoot up the 6th.

RnkPlayerTeamValue Add/GameConfClass3-pts and Games
1Dedric LawsonKansas13.29B123 Jr4 3-pts in 11 Gms
2Zion WilliamsonDuke12.30ACC1 Fr3 3-pts in 12 Gms
3Grant WilliamsTennessee11.69SEC3 Jr6 3-pts in 11 Gms
4Jarrett CulverTexas Tech11.03B122 So19 3-pts in 12 Gms
5Ethan HappWisconsin10.91B104 Sr0 3-pts in 12 Gms
6Markus HowardMarquette10.9BE3 Jr49 3-pts in 13 Gms
7Juwan MorganIndiana10.67B104 Sr13 3-pts in 13 Gms
8Shamorie PondsSt. John's10.27BE3 Jr22 3-pts in 13 Gms
9Tristan ClarkBaylor10.21B122 So1 3-pts in 11 Gms
10Ja MorantMurray St.10.16OVC2 So13 3-pts in 9 Gms
11Ebuka IzunduMiami FL10.13ACC4 Sr1 3-pts in 11 Gms
12Brandon ClarkeGonzaga10.13WCC3 Jr2 3-pts in 14 Gms
13Javon BessSt. Louis9.9A104 Sr25 3-pts in 12 Gms
14Ty JeromeVirginia9.54ACC3 Jr26 3-pts in 11 Gms
15Carsen EdwardsPurdue9.44B103 Jr47 3-pts in 12 Gms
16Matt MorganCornell9.14Ivy4 Sr38 3-pts in 11 Gms
17Ahmad CaverOld Dominion9.09CUSA4 Sr28 3-pts in 13 Gms
18De'Andre HunterVirginia9.02ACC2 So11 3-pts in 11 Gms
19Nickeil Alexander-WalkerVirginia Tech8.99ACC2 So22 3-pts in 11 Gms
20Myles PowellSeton Hall8.97BE3 Jr41 3-pts in 13 Gms

In addition to the CBS Sports 247 site, keep up with this blog for coverage of the Value Add Basketball rankings and Statis-Pro baseball projections all year. You can sort www.valueaddbasketball.com by team, conference or even click for past projections and seasons. Click here for the explanation of the Value Add basketball and how it calculates how much worse a teams average score would be if the player were replaced by a bench player on a mediocre team.

The top 5 defensive players in the country, based on their personal AdjD points by which they lower their teams www.kenpom.com rating.

Top 5 Defensive Players State Points stopped AdjD
Matisse Thybulle Washington -4.45
Ethan Happ Wisconsin -4.32
Zion Williamson Duke -4.14
Nicolas Claxton Georgia -4.11
Dedric Lawson Kansas -4.04

Sunday, December 23, 2018

Statis-Pro 2019 NL Season Log Using Projected Cards

Trying to hold off on playing the top contenders to land Machado or Harper, but here is the start of the season - you play your own with free dice version of Statis-Pro baseball if you are a 1st time player, but then we recommend you go on line to buy the true game with fast action cards. All game summaries are here. Latest result: Rays Charlie Morton shuts out the Phillies 2-0, but then Arrieta wins the second game in a "sweep" 6-1 to wrap up all 15 NL teams with 12 games on their record as everyone still waits for Bryce Harper and Manny Manchado.

NL East
Nationals 7-5 0 - 0.768  - Scherzer almost perfect in debut and adding Corbin gives Nats best rotation
Mets 7-5 0 - Cespedes stars to sweep Nats, but will he really return in key life in 2019?
Braves 7-5 0- Donaldson now hitting clean-up after Freeman completes great 1-4 hitters, gloves
Phillies 6-6 2  Finally made them play Cubs after trying to wait for Harper's decision.
Marlins 3-9 4

NL Central
Pirates 9-3 0 Dominicans Starling Marte/Greg Polanco dominating at top of line-up
Cubs 4-2 2  - tired of waiting for Harper and had them play Phillies, longshot Kris Bryant gets Harper
Brewers 6-6 3 - Will dominant relievers be enough to repeat?
Reds 5-7 4 - Puig, Wood and Kemp from Dodgers great, but can they get any relief pitching?
Cardinals 4-8 5 - Andrew Miller goes 9th and 10th to beat Brewers

NL West
Diamondbacks 9-3 0 - pitching still loaded and team slump of 2018 yielding to hot start in 2019
Padres 8-4 1 Newly acquired Hosmer hitting behind speedster Margot proving a killer 1-2 punch
Giants 3-3 3
Dodgers 5-7 4  Proved very vulnerable to lefties with Puig/Kemp gone; obviously they will add
Rockies 1-5 5 - "neutral park" projections make pitching pretty good, line-up not quite as dominant 

Game log will be kept on this google sheet and periodically pasted below. We pay each game counts as 3, with the winner getting 2 wins and the loser 1 win UNLESS winning team led by at least 5 runs after 8 innings without using their closer. In that case winning teams "sweeps" the series 3-0. We finally tired of waiting for Bryce Harper's decision, so had the Phillies and Cubs play without him and the Cubs won the series. A big acquisition that may pay off is Eric Hosner, who took the Brewers to the top mark in our Statis-Pro season last year and has scorched the Braves and Dodgers in our first two offseason series.


SDPaddock2LADBuehler1No1/5/2019Newly acquired Hosmer reached 6 of 10 times in the series including 3 doubles and they key 9th inning single of Jansen after speedster Margot singled and stole to give Padres 2-1 win
SDLamet9LADFerguson2Sweep1/5/2019Dodgers best player cards, but like the 1927 Yanks proved vulnerable vs a lefty starter and 5 lefty relievers, and w/ rookie replacing traded Wood, SD's Hosmer's onslaught continued off rookie Ferguson in 5-0 1st inning of 9-2 Sweep.

Projections and Background BEFORE Season

Here is the summary of how good each team's Statis-Pro cards appear to be:



OPS lineup

Rotation

Fielding

Relievers

Total Rating
Dodgers
0.785
10
3.64
8
27
4
3.73
5
65
Cubs
0.786
10
3.82
7
34
7
3.84
3
64
Cardinals
0.783
10
4.03
5
40
10
3.88
2
61
Nationals
0.768
8
3.49
10
26
4
3.65
6
59
Mets
0.776
9
3.64
8
24
3
3.85
3
57
Pirates
0.769
8
3.9
6
20
1
3.71
5
50
Reds
0.772
8
4.04
5
28
5
4
0
47
Braves
0.764
7
4.14
5
27
4
3.67
6
47
Brewers
0.751
5
4.27
4
32
6
3.47
10
44
Rockies
0.742
4
3.75
8
28
5
3.68
6
41
Padres
0.731
2
3.69
8
28
5
3.6
7
38
Phillies
0.758
6
4.05
5
18
0
3.87
2
37
Giants
0.734
3
4.23
4
38
9
3.53
8
37
Diamondbacks
0.713
0
3.57
9
30
5
3.47
10
33
Marlins
0.729
2
4.72
0
26
4
4.41
0
12

Game log will be kept on this google sheet and periodically pasted below. We pay each game counts as 3, with the winner getting 2 wins and the loser 1 win UNLESS winning team led by at least 5 runs after 8 innings without using their closer. In that case winning teams "sweeps" the series 3-0.





To try it out Print projected player sheets for all 2019 players and free dice version of game (just add dice in photo below) and print Out Chart. If you are a 1st time player but then buy the full player cards in line for current or historic teams. On the sheets you can sort teams by nation or MLB team, for example the Pirates No. 1 and No. 2 hitters in the game are Dominicans Starling Marte and Greg Polanco who just scored a combined 7 runs to beat the Cardinals in our first MLB games. Prior to that, they led the Dominican Republic to a 21-9 record to win the regular season and playoff over 2nd place Venezuela. The set up looks like the next photo, and you can order here if you want to purchase nice PDF player cards and games.We created the dice version and out chart so you could 1) use it as a free trial, 2) use all the other great teams and charts here even if you have trouble getting Fast Action Cards, and 3) to use as I do as a travel version without having to pack the whole game on trips.

To print your favorite teams; 1, click on this google sheet of projected 2019 cards; 2, define the team's batters and starters like in the next photo; then 

 3, hit print but choose to only print those cells you have selected so you get one nice sheet for all of the team's batters (which are in black) then pitchers (which are in red).




Adjustments I made from my 2018 AL season include:

1. The biggest improvement is that I started to use the modern Clutch Defensive (CD) and Clutch Batting (BD) process which means something happens every time those are drawn (or rolled). For BD with someone on my base the batters card is used and singles are turned to base-clearing doubles, the doubles are converted to home runs, triples and homers stay the same and everything else is a flyout. The next CD charts showed in the photo go from CD 1 to CD 5.

2. The next biggest change is in relieving. In 2018 I found I way overused relievers letting the Indians and Yankees dominate, so this season each reliever can only pitch one inning in each 2-game series, unless; a) he comes in for a pitcher who has faced at least 3 batters in an inning in which case he can finish the inning and start with a PB one lower in the next inning and only face 5 batters total, b) the game goes extra innings or a team is 5 runs or more behind in which case a pitcher can go as long as they want and never drop below a PB2-4. We will use either the No. 1 and No. 4 starter or No. 2 and No. 3 starter in each series.

3. We still play that a team winning by at least 5 runs gets credit for a 3 games to 0 series win, HOWEVER, we now say the team must be ahead 5 runs by the end of the 8th inning and hold that lead. This is to prevent the awkward problem last year with a team winning in the bottom of the 9th but still batting to try to get a 5-run win. This occurred in the season opener when the Reds rallies in the bottom of the 9th to beat the Brewers, and last year would have kept hitting to try to win by 5 but we decided to cut it off with their 7-6 win. (The Brewers won the second game of the series 16-8 but in 10 innings, so both teams were credited with a 2-1 series win a piece, so they both start the season 3-3.