Wednesday, September 18, 2019

How much pitchers can pitch in playoffs - study of last three years

In 2020, MLB will require relief pitchers to either complete the inning he is pitching, or pitch to at least three batters. Players of baseball board or computer games of all kinds know that deciding how often, when and how long pitchers can pitch is a great part of the fun of the game.

In my regular season, I allow pitchers to finish the inning or pitch to either 3 or 4 pitchers - no more or no less - to make the game move along, so I've been a step ahead of MLB. I also only allowed each reliever to pitch one out of every two games - and I play all 2-game series to make it easy to keep track. If a pitcher is used in the first of two games then he is not available in the second game, but if not then you may as well use him if needed. This gives a very realistic maximum use of each pitcher over the course of a season.

However, in the playoffs pitchers are actually used more - so I did a study to decide how much to use them in my upcoming playoffs. I researched any pitcher who pitched at least half of the teams playoff games for any of the ALCS or NLCS teams (47 total pitchers, or an average of four pitchers for each of the 12 League Championship teams. The following lists the team, how many playoff games the team had that season, and how many of those games the pitcher was used and what percentage of games that represents.

The "RR" is a Statis-Pro term for tracking the reduction of a reliever's endurance for every time he allows a player to reach first, or allowed an earned run or inning ends, and this figure averaged 2.6 among these pitchers. The pitchers threw to an average of four batters in each of these games. Based on that, I am using these rules for playoff pitchers.

1. If pitcher pitches to at least 6 batters in a game, then he is TIRED if he pitches in the next game (in Statis-Pro, lower PB by 1 - so from PB: 2-9 to PB: 2-8 for example.

2. If a pitcher pitches in a second game in a row, he cannot pitch to more than five batters AND he is automatically tired for what would be a third straight game of pitching.

3. If a pitcher comes into a game despite being TIRED (based on 1 or 2 above) he MUST sit out the next game completely.

Here are the pitchers on which I based this number.

Pitched half PO GmsTEAMYearTeam GmsPitcher Gms% gamesAve. RRBatter/GmERA
Top 4 relievers each team12.58.064%2.64.03.43
Brandon MorrowLAD2017151493%2.33.53.95
Corey KnebelMIL201810990%1.83.60.90
Roberto OsunaTOR20168788%1.94.00.00
Kenley JansenLAD2017151387%2.34.21.62
Aroldis ChapmanCHC2016161381%2.94.53.45
Jeremy JeffressMIL201810880%4.35.26.75
Brett CecilTOR20168675%1.22.30.00
Joe BiaginiTOR20168675%1.93.90.00
Tony WatsonLAD2017151173%1.42.32.57
Matt BarnesBOS2018141071%1.83.11.04
Carl Edwards Jr.CHC201710770%2.62.811.57
Joakim SoriaMIL201810770%2.32.87.71
Josh HaderMIL201810770%2.34.70.00
Mike MontgomeryCHC2016161169%3.65.43.14
Ryan MadsonLAD2018161169%2.03.12.08
Andrew MillerCLE2016151067%3.96.91.40
Cody AllenCLE2016151067%2.64.90.00
Ryan BrasierBOS201814964%2.43.81.04
Craig KimbrelBOS201814964%3.84.95.91
Joe KellyBOS201814964%2.24.20.79
Joe BlantonLAD201611764%3.74.77.88
Kenley JansenLAD201611764%3.65.73.09
Pedro BaezLAD201611764%2.74.12.57
Grant DaytonLAD201611764%2.02.38.10
Lance McCullers Jr.HOU20188563%2.43.91.80
Ryan PresslyHOU20188563%2.03.51.80
Pedro BaezLAD2018161063%2.23.91.59
Jason GrilliTOR20168563%0.81.90.00
David RobertsonNYY201713862%4.36.34.15
Kenta MaedaLAD201715960%2.03.80.84
Corbin BurnesMIL201810660%2.74.92.00
Travis WoodCHC201616956%1.72.62.84
Kenley JansenLAD201816956%2.13.81.69
Alex WoodLAD201816956%2.53.25.40
Chris DevenskiHOU2017181056%2.83.49.00
Tommy KahnleNYY201713754%3.25.42.38
Eduardo RodriguezBOS201814750%4.05.46.30
Wade DavisCHC201710550%4.05.54.26
Brian DuensingCHC201710550%2.23.81.69
Pedro StropCHC201710550%2.03.61.69
Mike MontgomeryCHC201710550%6.05.816.62
Pedro StropCHC201616850%1.72.53.18
Carl Edwards Jr.CHC201616850%2.13.22.84
Collin McHughHOU20188450%1.33.00.00
Roberto OsunaHOU20188450%4.35.67.50
Dylan FloroLAD201816850%2.53.63.86
Kenta MaedaLAD201816850%2.73.64.05
Top 4 relievers each team12.58.064%2.64.03.43


adddd

Baseball Board Game Results: 24 of 30 Teams Finish Within 2 Games of Actual MLB Win%

After playing 234 games with current 2019 rosters, the following were my standings. The tweak I've gone to over the years - which seems to provide even more realistic results with a truer test - is to count each game as a 3-game series. Normally the winning team is credited with 2 wins and the losing team with 1 win UNLESS the winning team lead by 5 or more runs after 8 innings without using their top reliever. A team has about a 14% chance of accomplishing this in any given game, the same chance a team has of winning all three games of a series.

For anyone who enjoys any baseball board game, you may want to try this. Here is a grid of games this season (still filling some in)

The following is each team's record (this is my NL year, the only AL games are interleague). For each team I list their record in my games - so the Dodgers went 55-32 - then I list how much better or worse this is than their actual MLB winning percentage through September 18 would dictate (the Dodgers went 55-32 in my game for a .632 winning percentage, which is actually one game below (-1) the 56-31 they would have played if they hit their actual MLB .645 winning percentage this season.

Twenty-four of 30 teams were within 2 games of where they would have expected to finish based on their actual MLB winning percentage - so I bolded the two that performed much better and four that performed worse in the board game than in real life.

Statis-Pro teamDivisionWinsLosses+ or - actualBoard gameWin%
Dodgers (Div)NL West5532-10.632
PadresNL West464170.529
GiantsNL West424220.500
DiamondbacksNL West3642-40.462
RockiesNL West263400.433
Nationals (Div)NL East523920.571
Braves (wc)NL East5140-50.560
Mets (wc)NL East504040.556
PhilliesNL East464400.511
MarlinsNL East223810.367
Cubs (Div)NL Central494100.544
BrewersNL Central4743-20.522
CardinalsNL Central4143-60.488
RedsNL Central3747-20.440
PiratesNL Central2535-10.417
Astros (Div)AL West75-10.583
MarinersAL West5700.417
RangersAL West57-10.417
AngelsAL West39-20.250
AthleticsAL West210-50.167
Yankees (Div)AL East75-10.583
Rays (wc)AL East76-10.538
Red SoxAL East67-10.462
BlueJaysAL East48-10.333
OriolesAL East4800.333
Indians (Div)AL Central9320.750
Twins (wc)AL Central7500.583
WhiteSoxAL Central5700.417
RoyalsAL Central4800.333
TigersAL Central4800.333
7047040.500
AL Record791030.434


Monday, September 16, 2019

Statis-Pro Playoffs 2019 Bracket; Braves and Twins Win WC

Our 2019 Statis-Pro Playoffs are set. This year was our NL year, so we played extended 90-game seasons on the NL side and quick 12-game seasons on the AL resulting in these playoffs. The wrap up of the end of the season is here.


To play Statis-Pro baseball yourself click this google sheet (includes cards for all MLB players and instructions) and two 6-sided dice, two 8-sided dice and one 20-sided die.

In the Statis-Pro Season 24 of 30 teams finished within 2 games of what their record would have been is they had their real life winning percentage. Click here for a full breakdown.


NL

At Braves 3, Mets 0 in wildcard -

Braves winner at Los Angeles Dodgers 5-game Series.

Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals 5-game Series.

Final two in Best-of-Seven NL Championship.

AL

At Minnesota 7,T Bay Rays 6 for wild card.

Twins at Cleveland Indians 5-game Series.

Houston Astros at New York Yankees 5-game Series.

Final two in Best-of-Seven AL Championship.

World Series Best of 7.



Sunday, September 15, 2019

Seeing Dorsett, Talking to Swann; Wrap up end of Statis-Pro Baseball Season

NL EastWinsLossesWin%WcGBBest CaseRemaining (if necessary)
Wash52390.571Div
Playoff
Atl51400.560+0.5
WC vs. NYM
Nym50400.5550
WC at Atl
Phi46440.511-4EliminatedDone
Other WCWinsLossesWin%GBBest CaseRemaining
Mil47430.522-3EliminatedNone
SD46410.528-4EliminatedSF2 Ar2
SF42420.500-4EliminatedSD2 Ar2
StL41430.488-6EliminatedCin2
Ari35420.403-8.5EliminatedSD2 SF2 LA1
Cin37470.440-15EliminatedStL2
Previously eliminated: Miami, Pittsburgh, Colorado.

Dodgers (55-32 .632) and Cubs (49-41 .544) already in playoffs as NL West and Central Champs. AL Wildcards Rays vs Twins, Winner vs. Indians. Yankees vs. Astros.

To play Statis-Pro baseball yourself click this google sheet (includes cards for all MLB players and instructions) and two 6-sided dice, two 8-sided dice and one 20-sided die.

In the Statis-Pro Season 24 of 30 teams finished within 2 games of what their record would have been is they had their real life winning percentage. Click here for a full breakdown.

My Facebook explanation of why I focus only on Statis-Pro baseball and Value Add Basketball on this blog on a weekend where I saw Tony Dorsett at the Pitt at Penn State game appears at the bottom of this blog - but first the final 17 Statis-Pro games to determine the final 3 NL playoff teams:
  • NL East Round Robin in order played (Marlins eliminated) 
Click here for the NL round robin divisional year end Statis-Pro games played before this blog.
  1. Nationals L 1-3 (to Braves), Anibal Sanchez, 5, PB: 2-6 vs. Braves, Bryse Wilson, 5, PB: 4-7 (6), Result: Wilson and top 3 Braves relievers one-hit the powerful Nats line-up, a 2nd inning HR by Eaton.
  2. Nationals W6-3 (to Braves), Stephen Strasburg, 2, PB: 2-8 vs. Braves, Mike Soroka, 2, PB: 2-7, Result: Turner's 3-run walkoff HR broke 3-3 tied in 9th to move Nats into first.
  3. Phillies L2-4 (to Braves), Nick Pivetta, 3, PB: 4-7 (7) vs. Braves, Dallas Keuchel, 3, PB: 2-7, Result: Donaldson 2-run HR tied it 2-2 in 5th, then Markakis, Swanson and Flowers. Hamilton PR, stole 2nd and 3rd, and scored game winner.
  4. Mets W 8-4 (v Nats), Steven Matz, 4, PB: 4-7 (6) vs. Nationals, Erick Fedde, 4, PB: 4-7 (7), Result: ex-Giant Panik's PH RBI single in 6th helped Mets hold 5-4 lead, until Alonso's 3-run HR in top of 9th let them save reliever Diaz (like Familia and Wilson great in the game if not in real life). Nats drop to 50-37 tie for Braves in NL East with 1 game left for each team.
  5. Mets W2-1 (v Wash), Marcus Stroman, 3, PB: 2-7 vs. Nationals, Patrick Corbin, 3, PB: 2-8, Result: Pitchers duel ended with Nats ace reliever walking three straight batters to force go-ahead run, then Diaz (a great PB2-9 in game) shut down Nats for the win leaving door open for Braves to win division with win in final game.
  6. Phillies W6-5 (v Braves), Vince Velasquez, 4, PB: 2-6 vs. Braves, Mike Foltynewicz, 4, PB: 2-7, Result: Braves chance to clinch ended with "what if" walk off HR by McCutchen to overcome Donaldson hitting 2-run HR and beating 2 throws home. Nats and Braves will play one-game playoff for NL East unless Mets clobber Phillies 5 games to 1 to force 3-way tie or 6-0 (would require two wins by 5 or more runs each).
  7. Phillies L6-7 (to Mets), Jake Arrieta, 2, PB: 4-7 (6) vs. Mets, Noah Syndergaard, 2, PB: 2-7, Result: McNeil's 2 homers and RBI double combined with 5 scoreless relief innings eliminated the Phillies.
  8. Phillies L3-4 (to Mets), Ranger Suarez, 5, PB: 2-4 (5) vs. Mets, Zack Wheeler, 5, PB: 2-6, Result: McNeil homered and doubled again, the latter pushing Phils closer Robertson into the game before the 9th to preserve a Phils 3-2 lead. With him gone, Rosario hit a 9th inning grounder down the third baseline that Franco (Clutch Defense 3) failed to make a play on, resulting in an RBI double. Cano then hit a walk off double.  The Mets practically guarantee themselves the 2nd playoff spot to face the loser of the Braves-Nats 1-game playoff for the NL East - unless the Giants or Padres can go 10-2 in remaining games against each other and the Diamondbacks.
NL West Games to be played if teams still alive for wild card:
  1. Padres L1-4 (vs. Giants), Dinelson Lamet, 2, PB: 2-7 vs. Giants, Jeff Samardzija, 3, PB: 2-6, Result: Samardzija pitched 7 innings of 2-hit ball to keep the Giants hopes alive and take the Padres to the edge of elimination (needing to get credits for "Sweeps/5-run wins" in their last three games to survive). Giants first four hitters (Pillar, Belt, Posey and Austin) singled then Padres starter Lamet booted a grounder and Longoria hit a sac fly to give Samardzija all the support he needed.
  2. Padres W12-3 S (vs. Giants), Eric Lauer, 5, PB: 2-5 vs. Giants, Shaun Anderson, 4, PB: 2-5, Result: Padres came in needing to register sweeps in their last three games (winning and leading by at least 5 runs at the end of the 8th without using top reliever). A 2-run HR by Renfroe in the 1st, then 2-run double by Kinsler and 2-run triple by Tatis in the second put them on their way to a 12-3 barrage to eliminate the Giants. If the Padres do the same to the Diamondbacks two games in a row, then they would get a one-game playoff with the Mets to try to take the last wild card spot.
  3. Padres, Robbie Erlin W5-2 (vs Giants), 4, PB: 4-7 (6) vs. Diamondbacks, Luke Weaver, 4, PB: 4-7 (6), Result: Tatis and Machado homered in the 1st and the Padres stretched the lead to 5-2 and loaded the basis in the 5th inning. However, the great Diamondback's bullpen shut it down from there to leave the Padres with a win but not the 5-run sweep they needed to stay alive - leaving the Mets as the final wild card team.
  4. NL East 1 Game Playoff: Braves (Foltynewicz) at Nationals (Fedde). The Nats overcame a collision between Soto and Eaton in the 4th inning that took them out of the game (Z-play) and two errors to secure a 3-0 win and the NL East title. The Braves will host the Mets in the Statis-Pro Playoff game.  Turner singled in 2-runs in the 5th, and a third run scored in the 6th when Zimmerman scored on an attempted double play (Gx6) on Suzuki's grounder with men on 1st and third. The Braves loaded the bases in both the 7th and 8th, but Rosenthal and Doolittle pitched out of the jams to preserve the shutout. Nats 3, Braves 0.




  • The games below were not played because all playoff spots were secure. The playoff bracket and results are kept here.
  1. Padres, Joey Lucchesi, 3, PB: 2-7 vs. Diamondbacks, Zac Gallen, 3, PB: 4-7 (6), Result:(played only if Padres "Sweep" 1st game vs. Diamondbacks with 5+ run win)
  2. Giants, Andrew Suarez, 2, PB: 4-7 (7) vs. Diamondbacks, Matt Andriese, 2, PB: 2-7, Result: (not necessary)
  3. Giants, Conner Menez, 5, PB: 2-5 vs. Diamondbacks, Taijuan Walker, 5, PB: 2-6, Result: (not necessary)
  4. Dodgers, Walker Buehler, 1, PB: 2-8 vs. Diamondbacks, Robbie Ray, 1, PB: 2-7, Result: (not necessary)
  5. Cardinals, Alex Reyes, 2, PB: 4-7 (7) vs. Reds, Alex Wood, 2, PB: 2-7, Result: (not necessary)
  6. Cardinals, Miles Mikolas, 5, PB: 4-7 (6) vs. Reds, Kevin Gausman, 5, PB: 4-7 (7), Result: (not necessary)
My Facebook Note along with photo of Dorsett:

When seeing Tony Dorsett at the Pitt at Penn State game this weekend, and talking to Lynn Swann on the phone recently, I should explain why the blog focuses only on baseball and basketball. I love football and hockey, have children with soccer and track scholarships - but I don't believe I have much to add in writing or creating games and/or player cards for those sports. I am a stat guy, and the Value Add Basketball game I developed of great teams, and starter game to let people try out Statis Pro Baseball Advanced stem from sports I believe you can break down analytically - and for that reason sports you can following even when on a business trip where you lose the ability to watch games on TV. So here are the final 17 games I'll play in Statis-Pro minus any between teams who clinch or are eliminated. It started with a blast with Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals playing a great Statis-Pro series with the actual game in the background on TV. Both should join my Statis-Pro playoffs with Los Angeles Dodgers Chicago Cubs Tampa Bay Rays Minnesota Twins Cleveland Indians Houston Astros New York Yankees and one other NL team based on these final games. I want to wrap up in time to start my Value Add Basketball season between 48 of the greatest college hoops teams of the century.