Saturday, October 20, 2018

Statis-Pro Clutch Defense: See Charts Below for Result of Play

An exciting aspect of Statis-Pro Baseball is the chance of a defender needing to make a clutch play. This only applies if men are on base and instead of a number by the PB spot on the Fast Action Card comes up or in the dice version the 20-sided die comes up as a "20" and the two 6-sided die equal between 5 and 9.

When this happens, the next step is to determine which fielder will try to make a great play, or perhaps misplay the ball. In the dice version, the combination of the two six-sided dice determines which player, but in the Random Card version another card must be flipped and the position by the "CD" determines which player attempts to make the play.

Look at the fielder's card, and locate whether he is a CD 1, 2, 3 or 4. Then find his position on the chart below and look at the two 8-sided dice to see the number from 11 to 88 - or if using Random Cards then flip another card to get a number from 11 to 88. Find the position below, the CD of 1 to 4 and the number of 11 to 88 and read the result of the play:

Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Oct. 12: Democrats Project 218-217 Lead based on process using Sabato, NY Times, Silver

So far the NY Times district-by-district polling of Sabato's toss-up districts is breaking the Republicans way and pointing to them losing only 218-217 in the House as of October 12 at 2:30 p.m. One example of the apparent across-the-board shift to Republicans from the Kavanaugh testimony to confirmation is GOP Lee Zeldin in New York. He was slightly behind, causing me to temporarily add that poll to the list below and give the Democrats a 219-216 lead, but voters steadily moved his way to such an extent that he fnished the poll nine points ahead.

October 11, 7:30 p.m. note - its dangerous to count incomplete polls, but based on the New York Times we flipped two seats. This switches PA-1 to Democrat (a -12 for Democrat up 12) and Minnesota-8 to Republicans (+25 so GOP up an incredible 25 points) to still leave the House 218 to 217 in favor of the Democrats.

I'm tracking the Senate here. The NY Times just got going on Senate polls, and the GOP had a double-digit lead in Tennessee and almost as big a lead in Texas.

The methodology we went with from day one was the same; 1) go with the Party Sabato forecasts as winning the race, 2) chance that only if the New York Times poll is run to pick (or in one case reverse) Sabato's projected winner, and if neither side has the edge through #1 and #2 then, 3, go to Nate Silver's projection and take the most current poll he records.

StateCDGOP leadNum. ratingBased on
CA10-2DemocratNate Silver
CA252RepublicanNY Times Poll
CA392RepublicanNate Silver
CA45-5DemocratNY Times Poll
CA483RepublicanNate Silver
IA3-1DemocratNY Times Poll
IL61RepublicanNY Times Poll
IL121RepublicanNY Times Poll
KS2-1DemocratNY Times Poll
KS3-10DemocratNY Times Poll
KY61RepublicanNY Times Poll
ME25RepublicanNY Times Poll
MI83RepublicanNY Times Poll
MN110RepublicanNate Silver
MN2-12DemocratNY Times Poll
MN825RepublicanIncomplete NY Times
NC95RepublicanNY Times Poll
NJ3-10DemocratNY Times Poll
NJ71RepublicanNY Times Poll
NM2-1DemocratNY Times Poll
NY19-3DemocratNate Silver
NY22-2DemocratNate Silver
OH19RepublicanNY Times Poll
PA1-12DemocratIncomplete NY Times
TX73RepublicanNY Times Poll
TX2316RepublicanNY Times Poll
VA28RepublicanNY Times Poll
VA74RepublicanNY Times Poll
WV36RepublicanNY Times Poll
1.4Average GOP

Of the 1 tied race and 6 unpolled race above, I went back and looked at the most recent adjusted poll on Nate Silver's page. In those races the GOP goes 5-2, losing only the two New York races, which would give the GOP a 218-217 win.