Thursday, May 31, 2018

LeBron now GOAT; Midnight Announcement Leaves Nevada No. 1

What a 24 hours for basketball! But before we run through why LeBron James (who will always be tied to our Dwyane Wade) takes the court tonight at Golden State having passed Michael Jordan as the most valuable player of all time, let's talk about what happened just before the midnight deadline for players to return to their colleges rather than stay eligible for the NBA draft in three weeks ...

At 11:33 p.m. ET last night, Cody Martin tweeted that he would return to Nevada, and at 11:34 his twin Caleb Martin confirmed he would stay as well - beating the Midnight deadline for players to leave the NBA draft t return to school. Kentucky, Villanova, Tennessee, Maryland and Virginia Tech were not so lucky, losing players to drop in the www.valueaddbasketball.com top 25.
  
However, Kentucky's replacement players were so good that they actually remained the No. 3 team in the nation. Duke passed them for No. 2, but Villanova fell from No. 2 to No. 10 - with Kansas rounding out the projected Final Four. Here is the top 25 with notes on teams that lost players to the NBA once and for all at Midnight.
  
Team   Top 8 Value Add
1.   Nevada   52.98 – Cody and Caleb Martin announced return at 11:33 pm to keep them at No. 1 with 52.98 combined Value Add.
2.   Duke   46.65
3.   Kentucky   stayed in third despite 241st Vanderbilt (5.17) & 272nd Gabriel (4.93) dropping but being replaced by almost as good 9th and 10th men (8.22 combined Value Add) as Villanova dropped further and Duke moved ahead of Kentucky’s 45.33
4.   Kansas   42.26
5.   Oregon   41.52
6.   North Carolina   40.31
7.   Mississippi St.   40.05
8.   Louisiana St.   39.18
9.   Auburn   38.66
10.   Villanova   dropped from 2nd after 25th ranked Spellman (8.01 Value Add) & 32nd DiVincenzo, (7.84) both left and replacements are a combined 6.85 to lower team from 47.51 to 38.51
11.   Gonzaga   37.94
12.   Tennessee   dropped from 6th after Alexander, 5.89 left and with (1.25 replacement) lowered from 42.01 to 37.37
13.   Syracuse   37.44
14.   North Carolina St.   35.07
15.   Indiana   34.95
16.   Virginia   34.62
17.   Texas   34.28
18.   UCLA   34.26
19.   Kansas St.   34.16
20.   Michigan St.   33.63
21.   Marquette   33.13
22.   Maryland   39.36 – dropped from 9th after 33rd ranked Huerter (7.82) left and only a 1.23 replacement to lower from 39.36 to 32.77
23.   Florida   32.73
24.   Iowa   32.49
25.   Arizona St.   32.1 (moved from 26th to 25th due to Virginia Tech dropping out)
Dropped Out - Virginia Tech   33.49 – dropped from 21st to 33rd after 381th ranked Alexander-Walker (4.25 Value Add) left with only 1.32 replacement Value Add to drop from 33.49 to 30.85
  
... now back to the inconvenient truth that LeBron James takes the court tonight as the GOAT, at least if that means the most valuable player in the history of basketball. Now that all of my friends in North Carolina and Chicago have stopped reading, let's walk through this.
  
As Golden State opens as a double digit favorite in the opener of the NBA Finals, Michael Jordan fans are likely to still be able to cling to their one argument for his superiority over LeBron James - six championships.
  
This ignores the fact that Jordan was one of THREE Hall of Famers playing at HOF levels (one of those years all three were in the top 15 in MVP voting) were on the 4th, 5th and 6th championship, and that argument leaves Jordan behind Robert Horry (7 titles), a legitimate contender for the greatest of all-time in Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and many previous players who had more than six.
  
In this his 15th season, LeBron James was more than twice as valuable as Jordan was in his 15th and final season based on career Win Shares (the only way to truly compare players from different eras).
  
In fact, in his five seasons without Hall of Famer Scottie Pippen on the court with him, Jordan never even had a winning season, averaging just 30 wins and 52 losses. Jordan apologists complained when James went to Miami to likewise team up with a future Hall of Fame Player in Marquette's Dwyane Wade - but James did not need a Hall of Fame teammate to make his teams awesome - averaging a 51-31 record in the years before and after he and Wade teamed up.
  
So when they had to carry their teams without the help of another Hall of Fame player, James’ teams were 21 wins better than Jordan's teams.
  
It is also fair to note that while Pippen finished 5th, 7th and 9th in MVP voting three of his years with Jordan, and in one year Dennis Rodman gave Jordan TWO teammates in the top 15 in voting - only one season has LeBron ever had a top 9 teammate (Wade 7th, as his best player was prior to James' arrival). In short, Jordan never produced nearly the same results as Jordan EXCEPT when he had Hall of Fame support far superior to the poor cast James dragged to the NBA Finals some of his years.
  
The three years before Jordan arrived in Chicago, the Bulls averaged a 36-46 record. Jordan played three seasons before another Hall of Fame player arrived, and during his three years befoer adding Pippen Jordan's teams averaged the identical 36-46 record. Jordan scored a lot - but his team was no better with him until another Hall of Famer came along.
  
Compare this to the transformation of the Cavs after James’ arrival. The Cavs prior to James were far worse than the Bulls prior to Jordan, with a 17-65 record. For an apples to apples, they averaged 25-67 in the 3 years prior to James arrival (11 games worse than the pre-Jordan Bulls), yet in their first three years with James the averaged 42-40 for a 17 average improvement in wins to ZERO for Jordan.
  
Jordan did not lead his team to a winning record until he was 25 and Pippen had arrived - but by age 25 James finished his seventh season having taken his Cavs to an average mark of 50-32 before leaving to Miami to team up with a player almost at Pippen’s level in Wade.
  
The difference continued throughout their careers. In the years before or after James and Jordan left and arrived, James’ teams averaged being 22 games better with him than without him and Jordan's teams did not improve at all until an extra Hall of Famer was added to the roster.
  
The dreadful Cavs improved 18 games as soon as the teenager James took the court. When he went from the Cavs to the Heat the Cavs lost 42 more games and the Heat won 11 more games. When he went back to the Cavs they won 20 more games and the Heat lost 17 more, for an average of 22 more wins a season with than without James.


Season
LeBron arriving or departing
W
L
Before and After
2003-04
Cleveland Cavaliers
35
47
18
2009-10
Cleveland Cavaliers
61
21
42
2010-11
Miami Heat
58
24
11
2013-14
Miami Heat
54
28
17
2014-15
Cleveland Cavaliers
53
29
20
Teams 22 games better w/LeBron
22


Contrast this with the amazing lack of difference Jordan’s departures and returns made. When he arrived from UNC he made the Bulls one game worse at 27-55, and as noted did not improve them one game over his first three years. When he took the 1993-94 season off the Bulls were only two games worse. 

James critics will note that Jordan then came back for only part of the 1994-95 season, but he was there for the entire playoffs and the team did just as well as they did the year before without him - a loss in the Conference Semifinals. The next year they had a monster year - but remember that was only after adding a THIRD Hall of Fame Player in Dennis Rodman to the them.
  
And then Jordan played his final two seasons with the Wizards’ - his 14th and 15th seasons, but unlike James’ 14th and 15th seasons he was simply not very good, getting a couple of MVP mentions the first year and then having a nice farewell tour. The Wizards’ were 10 games worse when he arrived, and just as good the year after he left.
  

That means the only time a team was more than two games better the year after or before Jordan left was after the 1997-98 season - WHEN ALL THREE HALL OF FAME PLAYERS LEFT AT ONCE.

Season
Jordan arriving or departing
W
L
Before and After
1983-84
Chicago Bulls
27
55
-1
1992-93
Chicago Bulls
57
25
2
1994-95
Chicago Bulls
47
35
-8
1997-98
Chicago Bulls***
62
20
41
2000-01
Washington Wizards
19
63
-10
2001-02
Washington Wizards
37
45
0
Teams 4 games better w/Jordan
4

*** because of the 1998-99 strike, the Bulls record is projected with 21 wins

Jordan was an incredible leader of teams with other Hall of Fame players, and he knew how to close when his teammates were superior to all the opponents they would face. I will even grant that his three best seasons may have been slightly better than any of James' seasons.
  
However, James’ ability to take teams that should not be in the playoffs all the way to the NBA Finals time and time again is a much dramatic than Jordan’s ability to make sure his Hall of Fame teammates did not blow championships.
  
James passed Jordan and he is still playing strong.
  
Unless you want to argue that Horry is greater than Jordan because of the extra championship, it is time to admit there is a new all time King.


Monday, May 28, 2018

Statis-Pro Baseball Game (Learn Free Basic Version in 5)

We consolidated various sets of instructions on Statis-Pro Baseball game into the following.


Basic Understanding of the Game 1

What you need to play 2

1. Dice or Fast Action Cards. 2

2. Player Cards 2

How to Play the Game 3

Setting Up 4

Order of Play 4

2-12 number: 4

11-88 number - 11 possible results (hits, balks, Ks, Walks, HBP, WP, PB, Out) 4

Left vs. Right Adjustment 12/88, 88/11 or other. 5

If Result is OUT: 5

Chance of Error on Hit or Out 6

Once you determine a player who might make an error - E-0 to E-10 6

SR and RR - How Long Can a Pitcher Pitch Before Getting Tired? 10

Taking Extra Bases on Hits, Hit and Runs, or Bunts 11

Optional Advanced Rules 13

Clutch Batting (BD): 14

Clutch Fielding (CD or for catcher CD-C): 14

Z-Play - unusual plays, injuries and tough fielding plays: 14


Statis-Pro Baseball was invented by Jim Barnes in 1970, and in an interview he invited others to adopt and update the game as “open source.” Our free version enables you to either play current teams with projected players, or to choose from 60 all-time great baseball teams. There is a complete game and many seasons of great advanced Statis-Pro cards on the Statis Pro Advanced Facebook page, if you want to try the game here first and consider ordering from them if you determine you like it.

Basic Understanding of the Game


The unique aspect of the game is that each plate appearance starts by determining if the pitcher is in control of the at-bat and his card will be used, or if he “makes a mistake” to put the action on the batter’s card and give him a chance for an extra base hit. An initial roll of two-tradition 6-sided dice or a use of “fast action cards” yield a number of 2-12. The best pitchers keep it on their card on 2-9, while the worst pitchers only control the action on a 2-4. Once you know whether the batter or pitcher card will be used for that at bat, a subsequent roll of two 8-sided dice for a result of 11-88 or a similar number from the fast action card gives the result of the plate appearance.

What you need to play

  1. Dice or Fast Action Cards. 

You need one of the three things in these photos. If you choose to use dice, you need two traditional 6-sided dice, two 8-sided dice of different colors, and one 20-sided die. If you prefer to use the free fast action cards we provide, they look like the all-white card below. Others sell much nicer fast action cards, so google “statis-pro baseball fast action cards” and you can find a set for $10 - you can see the blue and green corner of one of those cards and they really do add to the game..




  1. Player Cards 

Next, choose the teams you want to play. If you want to play two of the 60 all-time great teams, print the pitchers (see 1995 Braves below) from this pdf (one team to a page) and then follow these directions to print out the batters (see 1927 Yankees below) from a google sheet. If you prefer to play modern players, then choose the pages of the teams you want from all 2022 Projected Batters (49 pages, 9 cards to a page) and All 2022 Projected Pitchers (62 pages, 9 cards to a page) - the cards will have ranges like the Scherzer vs. Betts cards below. So you will be using EITHER team sheets of players or individual cards of players.




How to Play the Game

Setting Up


Choose a player on each team to pitch and play the other 8 positions - C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF and RF. Next choose if you will use an extra batter as a designated hitter (DH) or have pitchers hit in the game. Once you choose the 9 who will start the game, write them down in the order they will hit from 1st through 9th.


If you are using cards you can shuffle them, but if you printed out our free ones, you may just want to put them all in a big bowl to pull out the cards one at a time. Of course, if you are using the five dice then no shuffling is needed.


If you are using player cards, you can stack the line-up in order. If using team sheets, you may want to use a couple of business cards to put below each batter as they hit.


Order of Play


2-12 number:

Get a result of 2-12 from flipping a card or rolling the dice. If that number falls within the pitcher’s PB rating (pitcher or batter) then the action will occur on the pitcher’s card, and if outside that range it will occur on the batter’s card. The possible PB ranges on pitchers’ cards, from best to worst, are 2-9, 2-8, 2-7, 4-7, 2-6, 2-5 or 2-4.


If you choose to use optional advanced rules, look at the bottom of these rules for CD, BD or Z-plays, which can occur in place of the 2-12 number.


11-88 number - 11 possible results (hits, balks, Ks, Walks, HBP, WP, PB, Out)

On the 2nd card, read the second number (Random Number 11-88) to see what happens on that card, or look at the 8-sided dice for the 11-88 number.. (If noone is one base, change any BK, WP or CD on line 2 to an OUT).


Here are the 10 possible results:


1B = Single 

2B = Double (only on batters' cards)

3B = Triple (only on batters' cards)

HR = Home Run (only on batters' cards)

BK = Balk if anyone on base (only on pitchers' cards, if no one on base treat as OUT)

K = Strikeout 

W = Walk 

CD-C = Catcher Clutch Defense - if not using advanced rules treat as out

HPB = Hit by Pitched Ball (only on pitchers' cards)

WP/PB = Wild Pitch or Passed Ball  (only on pitchers' cards, if no one on base treat as OUT)

Out = see below.


If using player cards, the card will also indicate the fielder who gets the ball on a single (1Bf, 1B7, 1B8 or 1B9) or double (2B7, 2B8, 2B9). If using a sheet, the reading is simply 1B or 2B so use the second digit of the number to determine the field. A 1 or 2 (11, 12, 21, 22 etc.) indicates the batter pulled the ball, so a RN or RP hits it to LF, a SN, SP or P to CF and a LN or LP to right. If the last digit is 3 or 4, the hit goes to LF, 5 or 6 goes to CF and 7 or 8 goes to RF.


On old fast action cards, you would check after a WP or BK for a “yes” or “no” result, but skip that step even if using those old cards. If anyone is on base, the WP or BK occurs if it comes up on the card.

Left vs. Right Adjustment 12/88, 88/11 or other. 

The Cht numbers at the bottom right of the batter card indicates numbers on which results are adjusted based on if the opposing pitcher is right-handed or left-handed. The standard 12/88 for a left-handed batter indicates that an 11 or 12 is changed from a hit to a strikeout against a left handed pitcher, and an 88 is changed from an out to a single with runners advancing two bases against a right-handed batter. The standard right-handed batter has an 88/11 meaning an 88 against a left-handed pitcher is a single, runners advance two bases while an 11 is changed to a strikeout against a right-handed pitcher. Typically a switch-hitter is –/– meaning no adjustment.


For some batters there are more numbers impacted, for example a 14/85 would be the most extreme possible adjustment, and mean the batter struck out on 11-14 against lefties, and had singles with runners advancing 2 bases on 85-88. Just remember the number to the left of the dash is the adjustment against lefties, and the number to the right of the dash is the adjustment against righties. Further, the number either goes all the way down to 11, or all the way up to 85 from what is listed.

If Result is OUT:

If the result is an OUT, the fast action cards we provide will tell you what type of out is made.


If using the nice Fast Action Cards you produce then the following will tell you what happens to runners on base.


G6A (grounder to short) or any other A at the end of a grounder tells you the batter is out, but all runners advance.


Gx6 or any other reading with an x in the middle indicates runners hold and if there is a force out then the defense can throw out a forced runner. However, if runners are on 1st and 3rd then the defense must choose whether to take the out at second base and let the runner on third score or hold the runner at third and throw out the batter to leave runners on 2nd and 3rd.


G6 or any other reading with no x or A indicates a double play grounder if a runner is on 1st. However, if there is a runner on 3rd and no outs, the defense needs to either hold him and just throw the batter out at 1st, or let him score and turn the double play. If bases are loaded with no outs, the defense can choose to either throw the runner out at home, or take the double play from 2nd to 1st and let him score.


Chance of Error on Hit or Out

An error can occur under any of the three systems you can use for random numbers.


If using dice, any time a 18 or 19 on the 20-sided die is rolled there is a chance for an error. On a hit, the outfielder who fields the ball could make an error to allow an extra base on the hit, while on an Out the player could allow a 1- or 2-base error instead of an out.


On the nice Fast Action Cards you can buy from someone, a * will appear by the out result to let you know to check for errors on the next card. When using those cards, check for an error only on hits on the batter’s card - there is no chance of an error on a hit off the pitcher’s card.


If using the free fast action cards we provide, the Error Reading on the 4th card is only used if; there is a hit on the BATTER card on line 2 OR, there is a possible error (e?) on line 3 with an out. If the fielder's E number is in the range on this 4th line then everyone is safe in an out or gets an extra base on a hit. Flip for another 11-88 and if the number is 61-88 give batter and runners one additional base for a throwing error.


Once you determine a player who might make an error - E-0 to E-10

If there is a chance of an error on a player, then the next fast action card will determine if the error is in the player's range. A player can have anywhere from an E-0 (the best, never makes an error) to the worst E-10. If using the fast action cards, the next card will tell you if the error is in that range (e.g. Error 3-10 would be an error for an E-3 but not for an E-2).


If using dice, the 20-sided die determines the same thing with a roll of 3 meaning the same as a 3-10 range is an error. If the roll is 10 or higher, then subtract 10 but if it is an error then it is in the range. So a 13 die roll would be a 2-base error for an E-3, but no error at all for an E-2.


Obviously you cannot have a double play with noone on base, pardon the type under “1” with bases empty, just a grounder from shortstop to first base.


SR and RR - How Long Can a Pitcher Pitch Before Getting Tired?


The SR number is used for a starting pitcher, and RR used for a relief pitcher to see when they tire in a game.


For example, Greg Maddux on the sheet above would start at 15 or his SR.


This number is lowered by 1 every time the pitcher:


  1. Allows a runner to reach 1st base (unless on an error that is not his fault)

  2. Allows an earned run

  3. An inning ends while he is pitching (whether he started that inning, or cam in after it started)


Once a pitcher’s SR or RR is reduced to 0, his PB drops by 1, and then every additional education from one of those three occurs it is reduced by one more. If a pitcher started with the best rating of PB 2-9, then when he hit zero he would drop to PB 2-8, and then to 2-7, 4-7, 2-6, 2-5, 2-4, 2-3, 2-2 and if reduced further then the rest of the batters faced would skip the 2-12 number and automatically go to the 11-88 on the batter’s card.

Taking Extra Bases on Hits, Hit and Runs, or Bunts


Normally after getting the result you move onto the next batter. However, you can opt for any of the following strategies to advance base runners rather than going immediately to the next batter and the next 2-12 number.


Here are charts with various options. Note I have made some changes in writing after reviewing stats on frequencies of various scenarios. 


On bunts, we do have some all-time great players whose Sac (bunt) rating is AA+. The first time an AA+ player bunts in a game, use the AA column on the sacrifice chart BUT on an 11-28 he is safe at first base on a single. 


When a runner tries to take an extra base on a hit, the chart is used for the numbers on which he makes it to the next base. However, in some cases he cannot make it the extra base, but he is not thrown out either, he just sees a strong throw coming and stops at the base. He is only thrown if the 11-88 number for the throw is a 71-88 from a T-5 throwing arm for the outfielder, or a 75-88 for T-4, 81-88 for a T-3 and finally 85-88 for a T-2. Players advancing or being thrown out in modern baseball is even more rare, with layers taking the next base only 30 percent of the time and only being thrown out 1 percent of the time.






Optional Advanced Rules


You can choose to ignore a BD, CD or Z-play result to keep the game simple. If so, just ignore and play the 2-12 range to use the batter or pitcher card instead.


If you choose to play the advance rules, these can come up instead of the 2-12 number in the following ways.


If using dice, a roll of 20 on the 20-sided dice can overrule the 2-12 rating only if runners are on base.


If using fast action cards, in some cases a BD, CD or Z will come up instead of a 2-12 on some cards. With Fast Action Cards, Z-plays do happen even if noone is on base, but BD or CD is skipped if noone is on base.


Clutch Batting (BD):

If at least one runner is on base and the results is BD, or clutch batting, then the 11-88 number results in one of the following:


If the number would result in a 1B on the batters cards, then make the result is a 2B (double) and all runners on base score.


If the number would result in a 2B, 3B, HR or Deep on the batters card, then change to a home run.


If the number would have resulted in anything else on the batters card, then change to a foul ball, and the batter is still at the plate.


Clutch Fielding (CD or for catcher CD-C):

If the result is a CD-C then use the catcher's clutch defense rating from 1 to 5 but simply score as an Out if noone is on base. If a CD results and anyone is on base, then check to see which fielder has a chance to make a play. The fast action card will indicate which player, but if using dice then refer to the 2-12 number to determine the player.  If are using dice to determine which player has a chance for a clutch defensive player, or might commit and error - then use the following numbers:


2 or 3 = 1B, 4 = P, 5 = CF, 6 = 3B, 7 or 12 = SS, 8 = 2B, 9 - LF, 10 = C, 11 = RF.


Once you know the position, use that players CD rating of 1 to 5 then the 11-88 number on the chart below:


Z-Play - unusual plays, injuries and tough fielding plays

The following charts are used if an unusual “Z-Play” occurs. Draw a new 11-88 number.


ason.

2nd to home on 1b T2                            T3                           T4                           T5                        
OBR A11'-87 / out 8811'-77 / out 85-8811'-67 / out 83-8811'-57 / out 81-88
OBR B11'-77 / out 87-8811'-67 / out 85-8811'-57 / out 83-8811'-47 / out 81-88
OBR C11'-67 / out 87-8811'-57 / out 85-8811'-47 / out 83-8811'-37 / out 81-88
OBR D11'-57 / out 87-8811'-47 / out 85-8811'-37 / out 83-8811'-27 / out 81-88
OBR E11'-47 / out 87-8811'-37 / out 85-8811'-27 / out 83-8811'-17 / out 81-88
     
1st to home on 2bT2T3T4T5
OBR A11'-73 / out 87-8811'-63 / out 85-8811'-53 / out 83-8811'-43 / out 81-88
OBR B11'-63 / out 87-8811'-53 / out 85-8811'-43 / out 83-8811'-33 / out 81-88
OBR C11'-53 / out 87-8811'-43 / out 85-8811'-33 / out 83-8811'-23 / out 81-88
OBR D11'-43 / out 87-8811'-33 / out 85-8811'-23 / out 83-8811'-13 / out 81-88
OBR E11'-33 / out 87-8811'-23 / out 85-8811'-13 / out 83-88Cannot attempt
     
1st to 3B on 1B9T2T3T4T5
OBR A11'-73 / out 87-8811'-63 / out 85-8811'-53 / out 83-8811'-43 / out 81-88
OBR B11'-63 / out 87-8811'-53 / out 85-8811'-43 / out 83-8811'-33 / out 81-88
OBR C11'-53 / out 87-8811'-43 / out 85-8811'-33 / out 83-8811'-23 / out 81-88
OBR D11'-43 / out 87-8811'-33 / out 85-8811'-23 / out 83-8811'-13 / out 81-88
OBR E11'-33 / out 87-8811'-23 / out 85-8811'-13 / out 83-88Cannot attempt
     
1st to 3B on 1B8T2T3T4T5
OBR A11'-63 / out 87-8811'-53 / out 85-8811'-43 / out 83-8811'-33 / out 81-88
OBR B11'-53 / out 87-8811'-43 / out 85-8811'-33 / out 83-8811'-23 / out 81-88
OBR C11'-43 / out 87-8811'-33 / out 85-8811'-23 / out 83-8811'-13 / out 81-88
OBR D11'-33 / out 87-8811'-23 / out 85-8811'-13 / out 83-88Cannot attempt
OBR E11'-23 / out 87-8811'-13 / out 85-88Cannot attemptCannot attempt
     
1st to 3B on 1B7T2T3T4T5
OBR A11'-53 / out 87-8811'-43 / out 85-8811'-33 / out 83-8811'-23 / out 81-88
OBR B11'-43 / out 87-8811'-33 / out 85-8811'-23 / out 83-8811'-13 / out 81-88
OBR C11'-33 / out 87-8811'-23 / out 85-8811'-13 / out 83-88Cannot attempt
OBR D11'-23 / out 87-8811'-13 / out 85-88Cannot attemptCannot attempt
OBR E11'-13 / out 87-88Cannot attemptCannot attemptCannot attempt

Decide before the game if you want these optional adjustments to the ranges above.

Optional AdjustmentsUse 1st that appliesif 0 or 1 outsif 2 outs
Regular Hitany odd number RNSameadd 20
Texas Leaguercan divide RN by 12add 40add 60
Bloopcan divide RN by 4add 20add 40
Line Drivecan divide RN by 2subtract 20Same

The numbers above are based on these numbers.
   
Random Number 11-88                1st to 3rd on 1B2nd to home on single1st to home on double
Advances Extra Base11-3311-5711-43
Only advances same as hitter34-8758-8544-86
Out trying to Advance8886-8887-88
    
Based on actual occurances through 7/4  1st to 3rd on 1B2nd to home on single1st to home on double
Advances Extra Base252428871062
Only advances same as hitter569117071420
Out trying to Advance10919162

Below are the Clutch Defensive Charts so you have them in one place.

C-CD (Catcher)CD1      CD2      CD3      CD4    CD5
Foul Out11'-1812'-1811'-3811'-4811'-58
Passed Ball21-5831-5841-5851-5861-64
Infield single61-8861-7861-6861-6465-66
Lead runner out 81-8871-8865-8867-88
      
1st Base & 3rd BaseCD1CD2CD3CD4CD5
Line Out, Lead Runner Doubled off11'-1811'-2811'-3811'-4811'-58
Grounder, lead runner thrown out even if no force21-2831-4841-5851-6861-78
Line Drive single, advance 2 bases31-5851-6861-7871-8481-88
Double down line, runners score61-8871-8881-8885-88 
      
Shortstop, 2nd Base or PitcherCD1CD2CD3CD4CD5
Line Out, Lead Runner Doubled off11'-1828-Nov11'-3811'-4811'-58
Grounder, lead runner thrown out even if no force21-2831-4841-5851-6851-78
Hard Grounder through for Single, runners advance 2 bases31-8851-8861-6871-8881-88
      
OutfielderCD1CD2CD3CD4CD5
Line Out, Lead Runner Doubled offNoneNone11'-1411'-1811'-24
Nice catch of line drive, runners hold11'-1811'-2815-3821-4825-48
Nice catch of deep drive, runner on 2nd and/or 3rd advance21-2831-4841-5851-6851-78
Line drive single, advance 1 base31-5851-6861-7871-8481-88
Line drive double, runners score61-7871-8281-8685-88 
Line drive triple81-8883-8887-88 


Here is the updated Steal Chart.

 
Results (not odd RN never out stealing, worst case holds)                       Steal 2b     Steal 3b
Steal unless SP: E11'-1411'-14
Steal if AAA, AA, A, B or C15-2315-17
Steal if AAA, AA, A or B24-3218-28
Steal if AAA, AA or A33-4631-38
Runner Out Stealing (odd number holds)47-5241-52
Runner Out if Catcher TA or TB (steal if TC, if out on odd RN holds)53-5653-55
Runner Out if Catcher TA (steal if TB or TC, if out on odd RN holds)57-6356-61
Holds, cannot get break64-6862-67
TA picks off catcher, otherwise hold71-7168-68
TA or TB picks off catcher, otherwise hold72-7271-71
Steal if AAA or AA73-7872-76
Steal if AAA81-8877-82
Runner Holds 83-88


Here are the Z-Plays so you have all in one place.