Top 100 College Players 2020-2021 When on Court

The final www.valueaddbasketball.com ratings for the 2020-21 season are nearly complete. The final ratings for all players on every team except those in the Final Fours are calculated and are will be current on www.valueaddbasketball.com by morning. The Final Four teams will be updated for a final tally for the year after the National Title game Monday night.

However, we wanted to make one distinction.

The ratings at the link of all 4,000+ D1 college players provides are based on their Value Add ratings - that is how many points per game they improved a team on both offense and defense verses how the team would have done with a standard replacement player (7th or 8th player on an average team). If Evan Mobley (11.16), Luka Garza (11.09) and the much lesser known Kendric Davis (11.01) had missed the whole season we would have expected USC, Iowa and SMU to average doing 11 points worse each game. So a 70-65 win, would have been about a 65-71 loss.

Under this system, when a player is out injured (or on Covid-19 quarantine this year) the player gets a 0.00 for a game, so the players who missed time drop in the ratings. 

Therefore, we are listing the top 100 players this season PER GAME and put it in the notes fields in the database, so you will know where a player would have ranked if he had played the whole season. The table below provides the top 100 most valuable college basketball players this year when they were on the court. Here are some notes on elite players whose ratings were held down.

Keep in mind a player in the top 41 is in the top 1% of all players, the top 82 players in the top 2%, and the top 410 players are in the top 10% and elite.

The top 4 players, the three mentioned above plus Gonzaga's Drew Timme, did not miss any games so their ratings in the database is the same as their total below.

Oregon's Chris Duarte is the first player impacted. In the 25 games in which he played, his Value Add was 9.78, the fifth best in the country. However, he missed two games so will rank 10th in the database. The database and list below show "25/0/2," meaning he started 25 games, had 0 games off the bench, and missed 2 games.

Auburn's Sharife Cooper was the most impacted player. He just missed the top 1% of all players with a 7.65 rating, the 46th most valuable player in the country when he played. He also has an NBA rating of 98 of 100, so an almost sure fire strong NBA player in the future. However, because he played only 12 games and missed 15, his actual calculation will leave him with less than half as high a Value Add rating and ranked 585th - in the top 15% of players but not a reflection of how dominant he is.

Illinois' Ayo Dosunmu would have ranked 11th of all players but is 25th due to injuries, and Stanford's Oscar da Silva would have ranked 16th, but injuries pushed him to 29th.

Three other players would have ranked just a bit out side of the top 1% except for injuries. These are Virginia Tech's Tyrece Radford (57th most valuable when playing), Villanova's Collin Gillespie (64th) and UConn's James Bouknight (65th).

Here are the top 100 in the games in which they played:

Pl/G	Tm/G	Playerb	Team	VA/GP	GS/Ben/DNP	NBA
1	1	Evan Mobley #4	USC	11.16	33/0/0	100
2	2	Luka Garza #55	Iowa	11.09	31/0/0	71
3	3	Kendric Davis #3	SMU	11.01	17/0/0	10
4	4	Drew Timme #2	Gonzaga	9.96	30/0/0	84
6	5	McKinley Wright #25	Colorado	9.75	32/0/0	57
7	7	Quentin Grimes #24	Houston	9.68	29/0/1	91
8	6	Alex Barcello #13	BYU	9.46	26/0/0	10
9	8	Miles McBride #4	West Virginia	9.26	29/1/0	90
10	9	Corey Kispert #24	Gonzaga	9.16	30/0/0	95
11	25	Ayo Dosunmu #11	Illinois	9.01	28/0/3	93
12	11	Matthew Hurt #21	Duke	8.84	24/0/0	76
13	12	Jose Alvarado #10	Georgia Tech	8.74	26/0/0	10
14	13	Jared Butler #12	Baylor	8.73	28/0/0	91
15	14	Trayce Jackson-Davis #23	Indiana	8.72	27/0/0	64
16	29	Oscar da Silva #13	Stanford	8.69	24/0/2	62
17	15	Neemias Queta #23	Utah St.	8.67	28/0/0	76
18	24	Moses Wright #5	Georgia Tech	8.62	25/0/1	10
19	16	Kofi Cockburn #21	Illinois	8.53	31/0/0	85
20	17	Franz Wagner #21	Michigan	8.51	28/0/0	81
21	18	Max Abmas #3	Oral Roberts	8.51	25/0/0	10
22	36	Justin Champagnie #11	Pittsburgh	8.42	20/1/2	10
23	19	Jay Huff #30	Virginia	8.41	25/0/0	10
24	20	Sam Hauser #10	Virginia	8.39	25/0/0	80
25	21	Davion Mitchell #45	Baylor	8.37	28/0/0	65
26	22	Cameron Krutwig #25	Loyola Chicago	8.37	28/0/0	10
27	23	Marcus Carr #5	Minnesota	8.34	29/0/0	70
28	37	Tyreke Key #11	Indiana St.	8.25	22/0/2	10
29	31	Charles Bassey #23	Western Kentucky	8.19	28/0/1	96
30	78	Isaiah Livers #2	Michigan	8.17	23/0/5	80
31	26	Cameron Thomas #24	LSU	8.11	29/0/0	92
32	27	Gaige Prim #44	Missouri St.	8.1	22/0/0	10
33	38	Jalen Suggs #1	Gonzaga	8.04	28/0/2	100
34	52	Cade Cunningham #2	Oklahoma St.	8.03	27/1/3	100
35	28	Joel Ayayi #11	Gonzaga	8.02	30/0/0	75
36	46	Austin Reaves #12	Oklahoma	7.97	25/0/2	1
37	30	Osun Osunniyi #21	St. Bonaventure	7.97	21/0/0	1
38	32	Jeremiah Robinson-Earl #24	Villanova	7.89	24/0/0	94
39	33	Tyson Etienne #1	Wichita St.	7.88	20/0/0	1
40	49	EJ Liddell #32	Ohio St.	7.8	29/0/2	27
41	34	Jordan Schakel #20	San Diego St.	7.78	27/0/0	1
42	35	DeVante' Jones #3	Coastal Carolina	7.78	22/0/0	1
43	56	Nah'Shon Hyland #5	VCU	7.74	24/0/2	67
44	47	Tre Mann #1	Florida	7.68	24/0/1	84
45	55	Marcus Zegarowski #11	Creighton	7.65	28/0/2	58
46	585	Sharife Cooper #2	Auburn	7.65	12/0/15	98
47	54	Emanuel Miller #5	Texas A&M	7.59	17/4/1	1
48	81	Scotty Pippen #2	Vanderbilt	7.57	22/0/3	1
49	51	Eric Ayala #5	Maryland	7.53	29/1/1	1
50	39	JaQuori McLaughlin #3	UC Santa Barbara	7.5	25/0/0	1
51	115	Nijel Pack #24	Kansas St.	7.49	23/0/5	1
52	40	Jaime Jaquez #4	UCLA	7.46	31/0/0	50
53	63	Carlik Jones #1	Louisville	7.44	19/0/1	1
54	41	MaCio Teague #31	Baylor	7.43	28/0/0	67
55	42	Aamir Simms #25	Clemson	7.42	24/0/0	56
56	43	Grant Sherfield #25	Nevada	7.41	25/0/0	1
57	124	Tyrece Radford #23	Virginia Tech	7.41	18/0/4	1
58	44	Moses Moody #5	Arkansas	7.4	32/0/0	99
59	45	Dru Smith #12	Missouri	7.4	26/0/0	12
60	68	LJ Figueroa #12	Oregon	7.39	25/5/2	1
61	67	Grayson Murphy #2	Belmont	7.38	27/0/2	1
62	72	Julian Champagnie #2	St. John's	7.37	25/1/2	25
63	48	Keve Aluma #22	Virginia Tech	7.34	22/0/0	1
64	119	Collin Gillespie #2	Villanova	7.33	20/0/4	72
65	270	James Bouknight #2	Connecticut	7.33	15/1/8	95
66	50	Tahj Eaddy #2	USC	7.28	33/1/0	1
67	53	DeJon Jarreau #3	Houston	7.19	30/0/0	1
68	57	Jacob Gilyard #0	Richmond	7.13	22/0/0	1
69	58	Nate Watson #0	Providence	7.11	26/0/0	68
70	59	Armando Bacot #5	North Carolina	7.1	29/1/0	58
71	60	Jaylen Forbes #25	Tulane	7.09	23/0/0	1
72	61	Micah Potter #11	Wisconsin	7.08	31/11/0	1
73	62	Eugene Omoruyi #2	Oregon	7.07	27/0/0	51
74	64	Montre' Gipson #1	Tarleton St.	7.06	15/0/0	1
75	65	Jermaine Samuels #23	Villanova	7.02	24/1/0	1
76	66	Jared Rhoden #14	Seton Hall	6.93	27/0/0	1
77	93	Marcus Sasser #0	Houston	6.88	28/1/2	1
78	69	Marreon Jackson #3	Toledo	6.84	30/0/0	1
79	70	David Roddy #21	Colorado St.	6.84	26/1/0	1
80	71	Trevion Williams #50	Purdue	6.82	28/2/0	46
81	73	Justin Gorham #4	Houston	6.81	30/0/0	1
82	117	Iverson Molinar #1	Mississippi St.	6.79	28/1/3	1
83	74	Jamaree Bouyea #1	San Francisco	6.79	25/0/0	1
84	187	Jason Preston #0	Ohio	6.78	19/0/5	90
85	75	Collin Welp #40	UC Irvine	6.75	24/0/0	1
86	76	Matt Coleman #2	Texas	6.73	27/0/0	68
87	77	Hunter Dickinson #1	Michigan	6.72	28/5/0	41
88	79	Aaron Wiggins #2	Maryland	6.7	30/1/0	79
89	80	Baylor Scheierman #3	South Dakota St.	6.7	22/0/0	1
90	511	Michael Nuga #1	Kent St.	6.69	12/0/10	1
91	147	Tre Mitchell #33	Massachusetts	6.69	13/1/2	1
92	240	DeAndre Williams #12	Memphis	6.68	20/1/7	1
93	82	Timmy Allen #1	Utah	6.63	25/0/0	61
94	100	Colin Castleton #12	Florida	6.61	24/3/1	1
95	83	Myles Johnson #15	Rutgers	6.58	28/6/0	1
96	84	Joe Wieskamp #10	Iowa	6.57	31/0/0	60
97	317	Dylan Disu #1	Vanderbilt	6.57	17/0/8	1
98	85	Tyson Walker #2	Northeastern	6.57	19/0/0	1
99	86	D'Mitrik Trice #0	Wisconsin	6.55	31/0/0	1
100	87	Tanner Holden #2	Wright St.	6.55	24/0/0	1

Developing ... How Garza Passed for National MVP

The new run of Value Add Basketball rankings after the Elite 8 games show the following Top 10 with only the three Final Four games remaining. We will update www.valueaddbasketball.com later today with all 4000+ players. In the 2nd column we show Top 10 players who overlapped with the ratings at www.kenpom.com. Luka Garza led both all season, but in the final weekend Evan Mobley snuck ahead of him in the Value Add Basketball rankings (still 3rd place at www.kenpom), and Drew Timme passed him at www.kenpom.com (still 4th place in www.valueaddbasketball.com. More to come ...
 

Rnk	KenPom	Player	Team	Value Add
1	3	Evan Mobley	USC	11.16
2	2	Luka Garza	Iowa	11.09
3	NR	Kendric Davis	SMU	11.01
4	1	Drew Timme	Gonzaga	9.96
5	NR	McKinley Wright	Colorado	9.75
6	NR	Alex Barcello	BYU	9.46
7	9	Quentin Grimes	Houston	9.36
8	NR	Miles McBride	West Virginia	9.26
9	10	Corey Kispert	Gonzaga	9.16
10	NR	Chris Duarte	Oregon	9.06

To better understand how Mobley skyrocketed in our ratings (and we do emphasize defense a bit more than Pomeroy's leader board I believe), start by looking at how dominant USC's defense was in the tournament.

Based on the number of possessions in each game, and Pomeroy's calculations of each opponents Adjusted Offense (Adj) we know how many points each team would have been expected to score in that many possessions against an average opponent. For example, Value Add rated defensive god Anthony Davis as by far the best player in college basketball his one year at Kentucky, but in Pomeroy's rating he was 4th.

 

Drake would normally score 73 in 65 possessions, Kansas would normally score 75 in 68 possessions, Oregon 79 in 67 possessions, and even in the tough Gonzaga game the Zags would normally score six more points - 80 in a 72 possession game. Put it all together, and USC averaged giving up 15 fewer points per tournament game then would have been expected.

Opponent	USC Allowed	KenPom AdjO x Poss	Points Saved
Drake	56	73	-17
Kansas	51	75	-24
Oregon	68	79	-11
Gonzaga	85	91	-6
Tourney Ave.	65	80	-15

You look at Pomeroy's breakdown to get an idea of how much of that was Evan Mobley altering shots with eight blocked shots in the first three games, and he did alter shots if you watched the Zags game. Add the 24 defensive rebounds to end possessions, and we factor all that with steals along with the factors above of the overall team defense and he passes Garza.

8 Title Scenarios, and Possible Multiple Brackets in 100th Percentile

With most of the www.valueaddbasketball.com brackets we published in the 98th to 100th percentile, here are the scenarios based on the 8 possibilities for the title game. Here is the blog of all 7 brackets that was posted and sent out a few hours after the brackets were announced.

1. Gonzaga beats Houston

Our coaches ballot, already in the 100% would stay our best, but our Value Add only and our Defense brackets should all end up at 100% since all three picked this result.

Only 34% of all brackets picked Gonzaga to win and only 5% picked Houston to finish 2nd, so this would mean our three brackets were among only about 2% to have the title.game correct and thus pass millions of brackets to likely all end up in the 100th percentile.

2. Baylor beats Gonzaga

Our Experienced Guard bracket would end up the top of our brackets and move up from the 99th percentile to 100th percentile, since it would have picked the title game correctly, and the three above would drop a few because it means they would have been wrong predicting Houston beating Baylor and on the Zags inning it all.

However only 3 percent have Houston winning and only 18% percent have Gonzaga finishing 2nd, so probably only about 2 percent have this as the title game so the three above would be in the top couple of percent. We know this from this breakdown of the 17.2 million brackets.

3. Gonzaga beats Baylor

The most likely result at this point, but probably only about 6% or a little higher percentage of brackets would have this correct exactly since 34% picked the Zags to win and 17% picked Baylor in 2nd.

The coach brackets would still be 100th percentile and the defense and value add only would be close to it despite all 3 missing one semifinal game but nailing the other and the title game.

4. Houston beats Gonzaga

Because the champion is weighted so heavily, all four of the brackets mentioned above would drop the most if this happened since all would have the wrong champion.

5. Baylor beats UCLA

This is actually the worst of all scenarios for all 4 brackets because all would have the wrong champ and would have missed with predicting a Gonzaga semi final win, but likely still in the 90+ percentile since less than 1 percent picked ucla in the title game.

6. Houston beats UCLA

Experience guards would be our best and in the 100th percentile. 

7. UCLA beats Baylor

With only 0.2 percent picking UCLA to win, our top few might stay where they are at 100th, 99th and 98th.

8. UCLA beats Houston

Experienced guards would pass the other three for picking Houston over Baylor correctly, and would likely be in the 100th percentile, and the other three might stay 100th, 99th and 98th, but could slip a perfnet.

Elite 8 Brackets: Value Add/Guards 100th Percentile, Coaches 99th

To update the public brackets we released before the tournament, all five brackets based on the Value Add Basketball rankings are in the top 10% of the 17.2 million brackets submitted. The top 2 are the system that also factors experienced guards (100th percentile, picks Baylor to win the title) and the system that also factors coaches (99th percentile, picks Gonzaga to win the title).

Sweet 16 Features 5 of top 10 Value Add Players, Mobley Challenging Garza for MVP

The www.valueaddbasketball.com ratings of college basketball players will be updated shortly, and we started by posting them here. We posted two separate blogs, one with the top NIT Final Four Players, while this blog includes the final ratings for players on the 327 teams who were no longer playing as of Saturday morning.

One interested shocker to us is that USC's Evan Mobley's rating of 10.97 is on the verge of topping Luka Garza's 11.09 as the Most Valuable Player in the country this year. Garza continues to easily be the most valuable offensive player, however his defensive rating is a decent but not great -1.23 after Iowa yield 95 points to Oregon in only 75 possessions to be eliminated after allow 74 points in just 63 possessions to one of the weakest offenses in the tournament, Grand Canyon as shown at www.kenpom.com.

(Correction) the original email stated Grand Canyon was one if the worst offenses innthe country, which we corrected to note we meant one of the worst in the tournament. They rank 57th out of 68 tournament teams in AdjO, however they were 119th out of 347 offenses in the country, so a good overall offense just poor compared to other teams that made the tournament.

Sat Mar 20	6	104	Grand Canyon	W, 86-74	63		Neutral	22-8
Mon Mar 22	6	17	Oregon	L, 95-80	75		Neutral	22-9
Home games played at Carver Hawkeye Arena (15,056, 28th largest in D-I)

Meanwhile Mobley grabbed 15 defensive rebounds and blocked six shots - more than twice as many of each as the other five elite freshmen to play in the first two rounds, to help USC allow on 56 points in 65 possessions to Drake and an unbelievably low 51 points in 68 possessions against Kansas, again as shown by Ken Pomeroy. Mobley has the second best AdjD (defensive value add) in the country at -3.53 to bring his overall Value Add (AdjO - AdjD) almost equal to Garza.

Sat Mar 20	11	53	Drake	W, 72-56	65		Neutral	23-7
Mon Mar 22	9	29	Kansas	W, 85-51	68		Neutral	24-7

The ratings below, and that will be posted as www.valueaddbasketball.com this weekend are as of the opening of the Sweet 16 games, so do include the first NIT semifinal but no other games played on Saturday.

Rnk	Player	Team	Value	Ht	Pos	NBA%
2	Evan Mobley #4	USC	10.97	7'0	PF	100
4	Drew Timme #2	Gonzaga	9.69	6'10"	C	84
8	Quentin Grimes #24	Houston	9.14	6'5"	SF	91
9	Corey Kispert #24	Gonzaga	9.13	6'7"	PF	95
10	Chris Duarte #5	Oregon	9.04	6'6"	SG	86
11	Jared Butler #12	Baylor	8.95	6'3"	SG	91
16	Franz Wagner #21	Michigan	8.56	6'9"	PF	81
17	Cameron Krutwig #25	Loyola Chicago	8.54	6'9"	C	1
19	Max Abmas #3	Oral Roberts	8.44	6'1"	SG	1
22	Davion Mitchell #45	Baylor	8.38	6'2"	PG	65
28	Joel Ayayi #11	Gonzaga	8.1	6'5"	SF	75
29	Jeremiah Robinson-Earl #24	Villanova	8	6'9"	C	94
31	Moses Moody #5	Arkansas	7.96	6'6"	SF	99
48	MaCio Teague #31	Baylor	7.25	6'4"	SF	67
49	Jalen Suggs #1	Gonzaga	7.23	6'4"	PG	100
50	Marcus Zegarowski #11	Creighton	7.23	6'2"	PG	58
51	Tahj Eaddy #2	USC	7.19	6'2"	PG	1
56	Jermaine Samuels #23	Villanova	7.12	6'7"	PF	1
61	Isaiah Livers #2	Michigan	7.06	6'7"	SF	80
63	Eugene Omoruyi #2	Oregon	7.04	6'6"	PF	51
64	DeJon Jarreau #3	Houston	7.02	6'5"	PG	1
65	Jaime Jaquez #4	UCLA	7.02	6'6"	SF	50
68	Hunter Dickinson #1	Michigan	6.92	7'1"	C	41
72	LJ Figueroa #12	Oregon	6.84	6'6"	PF	1
80	Justin Gorham #4	Houston	6.7	6'7"	PF	1
89	Quincy Guerrier #1	Syracuse	6.47	6'7"	PF	1
90	Jaden Shackelford #5	Alabama	6.44	6'3"	SG	27
98	RaiQuan Gray #1	Florida St.	6.37	6'8"	PF	16
104	Herbert Jones #1	Alabama	6.22	6'8"	PF	87
107	Collin Gillespie #2	Villanova	6.21	6'3"	SG	72
117	John Petty #23	Alabama	6.12	6'5"	PG	72
119	Eli Brooks #55	Michigan	6.11	6'1"	SG	1
126	Marcus Sasser #0	Houston	6.04	6'1"	PG	1
127	Alan Griffin #0	Syracuse	5.99	6'5"	SF	1
128	Ethan Thompson #5	Oregon St.	5.99	6'5"	PG	73
141	Kevin Obanor #0	Oral Roberts	5.83	6'8"	C	1
153	Christian Bishop #13	Creighton	5.7	6'7"	C	1
154	Drew Peterson #13	USC	5.69	6'8"	SG	1
155	Marek Dolezaj #21	Syracuse	5.67	6'10"	C	1
161	Warith Alatishe #10	Oregon St.	5.63	6'7"	PF	50
162	Lucas Williamson #1	Loyola Chicago	5.62	6'4"	SF	1
163	Buddy Boeheim #35	Syracuse	5.62	6'6"	SG	1
166	Damien Jefferson #23	Creighton	5.55	6'5"	PF	1
169	Scottie Barnes #4	Florida St.	5.52	6'9"	SF	98
183	Justin Moore #5	Villanova	5.38	6'4"	PG	60
185	Anthony Polite #2	Florida St.	5.34	6'6"	SG	1
191	Andrew Nembhard #3	Gonzaga	5.32	6'5"	SG	71
192	Justin Smith #0	Arkansas	5.31	6'7"	PF	1
198	Jarod Lucas #2	Oregon St.	5.25	6'3"	SG	1
205	Isaiah Mobley #3	USC	5.19	6'10"	C	1
235	Mike Smith #12	Michigan	4.97	5'11"	PG	1
239	Johnny Juzang #3	UCLA	4.94	6'6"	SG	25
248	Mitch Ballock #24	Creighton	4.86	6'5"	SG	1
266	Jules Bernard #1	UCLA	4.78	6'6"	PF	35
274	Jahvon Quinerly #13	Alabama	4.75	6'1"	PG	27
279	Marquise Kennedy #12	Loyola Chicago	4.71	6'1"	PG	1
281	Anton Watson #22	Gonzaga	4.7	6'8"	PF	86
291	Balsa Koprivica #5	Florida St.	4.65	7'1"	C	44
311	Aher Uguak #30	Loyola Chicago	4.51	6'7"	PF	1
330	MJ Walker #23	Florida St.	4.39	6'5"	PG	82
344	JD Notae #1	Arkansas	4.34	6'1"	PG	1
354	Tyger Campbell #10	UCLA	4.29	5'11"	PG	1
374	Mark Vital #11	Baylor	4.2	6'5"	PF	42
375	Jalen Tate #11	Arkansas	4.2	6'6"	PG	1
393	Braden Norris #4	Loyola Chicago	4.15	6'0	PG	1
417	Matthew Mayer #24	Baylor	4.04	6'9"	PF	1

Top Rated Players Going into NIT Final Four

The NIT was a great tournament again this year, and the Final Four teams will all play again after today because there is a consolation game. These are the stats before Saturday's semifinals. While the highest rated player David Roddy will be in the 3rd place game with Colorado State, notice that there will be several players with NBA-level talent, topped by DJ Stewart's NBA Rating of 89 for Mississippi State, in their title game against Memphis.

The ratings will be updated at www.valueaddbasketball.com soon. 

 

Rnk	Player	Team	Value	Ht	Pos	NBA%
71	David Roddy #21	Colorado St.	6.85	6'5"	PF	1
130	Iverson Molinar #1	Mississippi St.	5.99	6'3"	PG	1
157	Lester Quinones #11	Memphis	5.64	6'5"	SF	1
193	Isaiah Stevens #4	Colorado St.	5.29	6'0"	PG	1
240	DJ Stewart #3	Mississippi St.	4.94	6'6"	SG	89
243	DeAndre Williams #12	Memphis	4.88	6'9"	C	1
246	Tolu Smith #35	Mississippi St.	4.88	6'10"	PF	1
270	Landers Nolley #3	Memphis	4.77	6'7"	SF	77
298	Isaiah Crawford #22	Louisiana Tech	4.6	6'6"	PF	1
400	Kenneth Lofton #2	Louisiana Tech	4.1	6'7"	C	1
530	Adam Thistlewood #31	Colorado St.	3.6	6'6"	SF	1
543	Alex Lomax #2	Memphis	3.53	6'0"	PG	1
545	Boogie Ellis #5	Memphis	3.52	6'3"	SG	74
553	Abdul Ado #24	Mississippi St.	3.49	6'11"	C	37
599	DJ Jeffries #0	Memphis	3.34	6'7"	PF	42
640	JaColby Pemberton #11	Louisiana Tech	3.24	6'5"	PF	1
728	Cobe Williams #24	Louisiana Tech	2.97	5'11"	PG	1
759	Kendle Moore #3	Colorado St.	2.87	5'10"	SG	1
789	Kalob Ledoux #5	Louisiana Tech	2.78	6'4"	SF	1

Final Value Add Ratings for Players Done Playing

The are the top rated players for the 327 teams whose season ended before the NIT Final Four and March Madness Sweet 16 ended. The ratings will be updated at http://www.valueaddbasketball.com/ soon. While Luka Garza is still the most valuable player in the country with an 11.09 Value Add, his lead is the smallest margin of the year as Evan Mobley has pulled within one-tenth of a points and has led USC into the Sweet 16.

 

Rnk	Player	Team	Value	Ht	Pos	NBA%
1	Luka Garza #55	Iowa	11.09	6'11"	C	71
3	Kendric Davis #3	SMU	10.95	5'11"	PG	1
5	McKinley Wright #25	Colorado	9.65	6'0	PG	57
6	Alex Barcello #13	BYU	9.38	6'2"	SG	1
7	Miles McBride #4	West Virginia	9.24	6'2"	PG	90
12	Matthew Hurt #21	Duke	8.87	6'9"	PF	76
13	Jose Alvarado #10	Georgia Tech	8.81	6'0	SG	1
14	Trayce Jackson-Davis #23	Indiana	8.74	6'9"	C	64
15	Neemias Queta #23	Utah St.	8.64	7'0	C	76
18	Kofi Cockburn #21	Illinois	8.52	7'0	C	85
20	Sam Hauser #10	Virginia	8.43	6'8"	PF	80
21	Jay Huff #30	Virginia	8.43	7'1"	C	1
23	Moses Wright #5	Georgia Tech	8.36	6'9"	C	1
24	Marcus Carr #5	Minnesota	8.31	6'2"	PG	70
25	Cameron Thomas #24	LSU	8.17	6'4"	SG	92
26	Gaige Prim #44	Missouri St.	8.15	6'8"	C	1
27	Ayo Dosunmu #11	Illinois	8.14	6'5"	PF	93
30	Osun Osunniyi #21	St. Bonaventure	7.97	6'10"	C	1
32	Oscar da Silva #13	Stanford	7.95	6'9"	C	62
33	Charles Bassey #23	Western Kentucky	7.91	6'11"	C	96
34	Tyson Etienne #1	Wichita St.	7.83	6'2"	SG	1
35	Jordan Schakel #20	San Diego St.	7.73	6'6"	SF	1
36	DeVante' Jones #3	Coastal Carolina	7.73	6'1"	SF	1
37	Justin Champagnie #11	Pittsburgh	7.67	6'6"	PF	1
38	Tyreke Key #11	Indiana St.	7.54	6'3"	SG	1
39	Aamir Simms #25	Clemson	7.45	6'8"	C	56
40	Dru Smith #12	Missouri	7.44	6'3"	SG	12
41	JaQuori McLaughlin #3	UC Santa Barbara	7.44	6'4"	SF	1
42	Grant Sherfield #25	Nevada	7.4	6'2"	PG	1
43	Tre Mann #1	Florida	7.39	6'5"	PG	84
44	Austin Reaves #12	Oklahoma	7.36	6'5"	PG	1
45	Keve Aluma #22	Virginia Tech	7.36	6'9"	C	1
46	EJ Liddell #32	Ohio St.	7.3	6'7"	PF	27
47	Eric Ayala #5	Maryland	7.28	6'5"	PG	1
52	Cade Cunningham #2	Oklahoma St.	7.18	6'8"	PF	100
53	Jacob Gilyard #0	Richmond	7.15	5'9"	PG	1
54	Nah'Shon Hyland #5	VCU	7.13	6'3"	SG	67
55	Emanuel Miller #5	Texas A&M	7.13	6'7"	PF	1
57	Nate Watson #0	Providence	7.12	6'10"	C	68
58	Jaylen Forbes #25	Tulane	7.11	6'5"	SF	1
59	Armando Bacot #5	North Carolina	7.1	6'10"	C	58
60	Carlik Jones #1	Louisville	7.1	6'1"	PG	1
62	Micah Potter #11	Wisconsin	7.05	6'10"	C	1
66	Montre' Gipson #1	Tarleton St.	7.02	5'11"	SG	1
67	Jared Rhoden #14	Seton Hall	6.97	6'6"	SF	1
69	Marreon Jackson #3	Toledo	6.87	6'1"	PG	1
70	Grayson Murphy #2	Belmont	6.86	6'2"	SG	1
73	Julian Champagnie #2	St. John's	6.84	6'8"	PF	25
74	Trevion Williams #50	Purdue	6.83	6'10"	C	46
75	Jamaree Bouyea #1	San Francisco	6.73	6'2"	PG	1

'What If' Value Add Game 2021 Game Log

We decided to hold an 128-team Value Add Basketball Game tournament with this year's player cards, meaning the 28-seed in each region starts against the 5-seed, the 27-seed plays the 6-seed etc., and the top four seeds in each region get a first round bye.

Click here for details on Midwest Games:

22-Marquette 78, 11-Clemson 75

Click here for details on South Games:

17-Auburn 91, 16-SMU 84 (OT)

Click here for details on West Games:

10-VCU 77, 23-Eastern Washington 75

Click here for details on East Games:

11-Penn State 85, 22-Notre Dame 73

For regular players of the game, note there is a new optional rule to adjust for match-ups for teams that play at a much slower or faster pace than average teams.

Optional Pace Rule to start at score other than 20-20 for game between faster or slower paced teams: While starting the game 20-20 with 44-53 possessions left to play is normally realistic, certain teams play at a much faster or slower pace. This optional rule allows you to change the starting score, and in turn change the distribution of points by player at the outset of the game from the normal 2 points per game per player to equal that total.

Step 1 determine each team's pace - Determine the pace for each team. For teams since 2002, you can go to www.kenpom.com or another site to see the pace (number of possessions per game) for each team. For example the two fastest pace teams in the 2021 tournament were Gonzaga (round to 74 possessions) and Alabama (73), while the two slowest pace teams were Virginia (62) and Mount St. Mary's (60). For teams from before 2002 or if you don't have the pace, average their points scored per game and points allow per game - so the highest estimated pace in history would be the 1990 Loyola Marymount team which average winning 122-108 - average those two together and their estimated pace is 115 as the average of 122 and 108.

Step 2 adjust if either team's pace is lower than 65 or higher than 70. If both team's pace is between 65-70, then the score starts at the normal 20-20 score. However, for each team that is higher than 71 add a point to the starting score, add a point to the starting score. If Gonzaga (74) played Alabama (73) then you would +4 for Gonzaga's pace and +3 for Alabama's pace to make the starting score 27-27 instead of 20-20. If UVa (62) and Mount St. Mary's (60) played then you would subtract -3 for UVa (3 lower than 65) and -5 for Mount St. Mary's for a total of -8 and therefore start the game 12-12 instead of 20-20. If a team with an average pace of 65-70 (no adjustment) played 1990 Loyola Marymount (115 from previous paragraph) then the other team would be a +0 and Loyola would be +45 (45 higher than 70) and the score of the game would start at 65-65 instead of 20-20.

USC's Mobley Clearly Best Frosh, Hot Teams Cool Off In Tourney

After the blitz of games we now have four days with no March Madness games. While catching our breath, a couple of notes: 

As I tweeted last night, Evan Mobley of USC is clearly the best freshman in the country. While 2nd through 6th is very close, Cade Cunningham calculates as 6th, which is also where he ranks among Big 12 players. 

For the rankings going into the tourney above and at www.valueaddbasketball.com, he was worth three points more per game then the next five best. This is based on calculations similar to the www.kenpom.com AdjO for offense is AdjD for defense.

The top 6 all played two tournament games so far. On defense Mobley has been by far the best defender, with twice as many defensive rebounds (15) and blocked shots (6).  Cunningham was the second best defender with 7 steals and Suggs third best with 4 steals. 

In offense for the two games, the average rating at KenPom was Mobley first at 123, Thomas second at 120, Moody at 115, the other three were below average in double digits. 

Overall it was not close this year - Mobley was BY FAR the best freshman in the country both in the season and in the tournament first weekend. You can argue 2nd through 6th because they are very close.

As for our overall brackets, most rank very high - between the 87th and 98th percentile. The one that once again falls flat is the one adjusted for the hottest teams in the tournament. We always remember the occasional run by a hot team, like Louisville and UConn title runs in the last decade, but in most cases teams do not play better if they finished the season hot.

Sss

Why Oral Roberts' Abmans More Valuable than BEST Player, Cunningham

This was the statement we sent to sports writers across the US Saturday morning. An exclamation point was put on the statement when Max Abmans lit it up for another Oral Roberts upset while Cade Cunningham went 6 of 20 shots including getting rejected on jumpers twice at key moments and Oklahoma State was upset by Oregon State:

"This season Oral Roberts' Max Abmas ranked as one of only two players from smaller conferences ranked in the top 1 percent of all players by www.valueaddbasketball.com," said John Pudner, inventor of the Value Add Basketball rankings. "Friday he torched Ohio State for 29 points while committing only one turnover playing point guard to make Oral Roberts only the 9th 15-seed to defeat a 2-seed in 141 chances."

"Meanwhile Oklahoma State's Cade Cunningham showed both sides of why he may be the BEST player in college basketball, but does not rank in the top 1% of MOST VALUABLE players over the course of the season based on his value add above replacement players. Like many games this year, Cunningham was in total control at the end of the game, securing the ball, hitting free throws, being a wall on defense, just like he will likely do in the NBA next year. However, his 3 of 14 shooting and 4 turnovers kept Liberty in the game until the closing minutes, in line with his higher than normal turnover percentage (22%) and lower than average 2-point fielding percentage (47%), both typical of talented freshmen."

Historical references for Value Add Basketball are included in this blog http://www.pudnersports.com/2016/11/value-add-basketball-history-and.html, and more in depth statistical background is written up regularly at www.pudnersports.com.

Updated Bracket End of 1st Round; Value Add + Coach Experience in 99th Percentile of Brackets

The bracket published basing picks on the www.valueaddbasketball.com ratings of all valuable players plus the experience of the head coach in winning March Madness games has been correct on 25 of 32 picks in the first round to place in the 99th percentile.

The system correctly picked four upsets on the lower bracket below, the team winning with the worse seed - UCLA, Rutgers, Syracuse and Wisconsin. Almost penciled in Mark Turgeon to tip Maryland past UConn and should have pulled the trigger. That was a brilliant packed defense to make UConn shoot jumpers instead of driving.

Click for this CBS Sports 24/7 story:

Teams bolded when they win 2nd round game to advance to Sweet 16. The "Prev Yrs" indicates how many of the past 25 years the coach has advanced to at least the 2nd round of the NCAA tournament coming into this tournament. All times Central.

Gm CT	Round 2 Coach	Prev Yrs	Best Run
11:10	Porter Moser, Loy	1	2018 Final Four
	Brad Underwood, IL	2	No Sweet 16
1:40	Greg Gard, WI	2	2 Sweet 16s
	Scott Drew, Baylor	5	Elite 8 2010 and 2012
4:15	Jim Boeheim, Syr	13	2003 title, final 4 2013 & 2016
	Bob Huggins, WVU	14	Final 4 2010, 5 Sweet 16s
5:10	Chris Beard, TX Tech	3	2019 Title Game
	Eric Musselman, Ark	1	Sweet 16 in 2018
6:10	Steve Pikiell, Rutg	0	No Sweet 16
	Kelvin Sampson, Hou	8	Final 4 2002 Oklahoma
6:45	Paul Mills, Oral R	0	No Sweet 16
	Michael White, FL	3	Elite 8 in 2017
7:45	Grant McCasland, N TX	0	No Sweet 16
	Jay Wright, Vill	12	NatlChamps 2016 & 2018
8:40	Wayne Tinkle, OR St	0	No Sweet 16
	Mike Boynton, OK St	0	No Sweet 16
M 8:40	Andy Enfield, USC	2	FGCU 2013 Sweet 16
	Bill Self, KS	13	2008 National Title
M 6:10	Will Wade, LSU	2	Sweet 16 in 2019
	Juwan Howard, MI	0	No Sweet 16
M 4:15	Mick Cronin, UCLA	5	Sweet 16 in 2012
	Joe Golding, Abil Chr	0	No Sweet 16
M 1:40	Mark Few, Gonz	15	2017 Title Game
	Lon Kruger, OK	6	Final 4 2016
M 6:45	Tad Boyle, Col	1	No Sweet 16
	Leonard Hamilton, FSU	7	2018 Elite 8
M 7:45	Mark Turgeon, MD	7	Sweet 16 2006, 2016
	Nate Oats, AL	2	No Sweet 16
M 11:10	Dana Altman, OR	8	Final 4 2017
	Fran McCaffery, IA	5	No Sweet 16
M 5:15	Jeff Boals, OH	0	No Sweet 16
	Greg McDermott, Creigh	3	No Sweet 16

Other systems factor on the Value Add Basketball Rankings, while other variations adjust for; 1, experienced guards, 2, defense and 3, how hot the team finished the season, or how much NBA talent they feature. 

Here are the rankings of the 7 brackets we published, as tracked by espn, followed by the bracket in the lead - Value Add adjusted for coaches who have taken their teams on big runs.

Here are the actual brackets released Sunday, hours after the brackets were announced. Readers were told to list the team on as many lines as indicated.

Seed	West	Region	Value Add	Hot	Coach	Def	Exp Gu	NBA	My Pick
1	Gonzaga	Favored	6	6	6	6	5	6	6
16	Appalachian St./Norfolk St	Underdog
8	Oklahoma	Favored	1		1	1	1	1	1
9	Missouri	Underdog		1
5	Creighton	Favored	1	1	1	1	2	1	2
12	UC Santa Barbara	Underdog
4	Virginia or Louisville	Favored	2	2	2	2	1	2
13	Ohio	Underdog							1
6	USC	Favored	2	2	3	2	3	1	3
11	Wichita St. or Drake	Underdog
3	Kansas	Favored	1	1	1	1	1	3	1
14	Eastern Washington	Underdog
7	Oregon	Favored	1	1	1	1	1	1
10	VCU	Underdog							2
2	Iowa	Favored	3	3	2	3	2	2	1
15	Grand Canyon	Underdog
Seed	East	Region	Value Add	Hot	Coach	Def	Exp Gu	NBA	My Pick
1	Michigan	Favored	4	3	4	4	3	1	4
16	Texas Southern/Mt St. Mary's	Underdog
8	LSU	Favored						3
9	St. Bonaventure	Underdog	1	1	1	1	1		1
5	Colorado	Favored	1		1	1	2	1
12	Georgetown	Underdog		1					2
4	Florida St.	Favored	2	2	2	2	1	2	1
13	UNC Greensboro	Underdog
6	BYU	Favored	1	2		1	1
11	UCLA or Michigan St	Underdog			1			1	1
3	Texas	Favored	2	1	2	2	2	4	2
14	Abilene Christian	Underdog
7	Connecticut	Favored	1	4	3	1		1	3
10	Maryland	Underdog					1
2	Alabama	Favored	3	1	1	3	4	2	1
15	Iona	Underdog
Seed	South	Region	Value Add	Hot	Coach	Def	Exp Gu	NBA	My Pick
1	Baylor	Favored	4	4	4	4	6	4	1
16	Hartford	Underdog
8	North Carolina	Favored						1	3
9	Wisconsin	Underdog	1	1	1	1	1
5	Villanova	Favored	1	1	2	1	1	2	1
12	Winthrop	Underdog
4	Purdue	Favored	2	2	1	2	2	1	2
13	North Texas	Underdog
6	Texas Tech	Favored	1	1	1		1	3
11	Utah St.	Underdog				1			2
3	Arkansas	Favored	2	3	2	2	3	1	1
14	Colgate	Underdog
7	Florida	Favored	1	1	1	1	2	2	1
10	Virginia Tech	Underdog
2	Ohio St.	Favored	3	2	3	3	1	1	4
15	Oral Roberts	Underdog
Seed	Midwest	Region	Value Add	Hot	Coach	Def	Exp Gu	NBA	My Pick
1	Illinois	Favored	3	5	3	3	4	2	3
16	Drexel	Underdog
8	Loyola Chicago	Favored	1		1	1
9	Georgia Tech	Underdog		1			1	1	1
5	Tennessee	Favored	1	1	1	1	2	5	2
12	Oregon St.	Underdog
4	Oklahoma St.	Favored	2	2	2	2	1	1
13	Liberty	Underdog							1
6	San Diego St.	Favored	2	2		3	1	1	1
11	Syracuse	Underdog			1
3	West Virginia	Favored	1	1	2	1	2	2	2
14	Morehead St.	Underdog
7	Clemson	Favored
10	Rutgers	Underdog	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
2	Houston	Favored	5	3	5	5	3	3	5
15	Cleveland St.	Underdog