Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Top Shooting Guards in College Basketball This Season

 In Value Add Basketball we consider the team's "shooting guard" the player who behind only the team's point guard in assists, but compared to the other three players on the court typically has fewer defensive rebounds, blocked shots and less height. A great center or power forward will typically have even better raw numbers than a great point guard, because the guards typically need to get the ball to a power forward or center close to the basket for a closer shot.  (for a summary of the top players at each position, click here).

Because calculates how many points per game a player improves his team compared to if a typical replacement player took his place, the raw value add is adjusted by position since the replacement player would be at the same position. Therefore, once the formulas are run, and shooting guard's raw value add is increased by multiplying it by 1.10 to get the result you see below and at

In general, freshmen guards in particular make so many mistakes (turnovers, bad shots etc.) the first half of the season that they do not rank nearly as high as more experienced guards. However, they tend to improve more at the end of the season, so we watch for breakout freshmen first when looking at brackets. Therefore we start with the 10 most valuable freshmen shooting guards in college basketball, starting with the best freshman shooting guard TyTy Washington of Kentucky. His value add of 6.34 indicates there is a better than 50/50 chance Kentucky would have LOST any game that they won by fewer than seven points. 

In his case, he improves the Kentucky's offense by 4.90 points per game, while his defensive rating of -1.44 indicates he takes three to four points more away from the opposing team then a typical replacement shooting guard. Here are the most valuable 10 freshmen power forwards through games of February 15. Arizona's Dalen Terry is one of three Arizona players we would name to our All-American freshmen team - and his defense of -2.35 is by far the best for any shooting guard.

RnkTop Freshmen SGTeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
15TyTy Washington #3Kentucky6.34SEC6'3"Fr
20Dalen Terry #4Arizona5.65P126'7"Fr
38Trevor Keels #1Duke4.72ACC6'4"Fr
50Terquavion Smith #0N.C. State4.35ACC6'4"Fr
60Steele Venters #2Eastern Washington4.18BSky6'7"Fr
62Reyne Smith #2Charleston4.06CAA6'2"Fr
65Nate Heise #0Northern Iowa4.02MVC6'4"Fr
67Malaki Branham #22Ohio St.4B106'5"Fr
71Brandon Murray #0LSU3.95SEC6'5"Fr
73JD Davison #3Alabama3.91SEC6'3"Fr

Top overall SG

One reason we love running these numbers is to find truly elite players who will not be noticed because their team either does not get enough TV coverage or is just not winning enough games to draw attention. The biggest case this year comes from teh 13-10 Washington in the Pac-12. We calculte that Washington would be 4-19 instead of 13-10 if Terrell Brown were not on the team, and for us that makes him the truly deserving 1st team All-American shooting guard who will not get any voters for it.

The race for 2nd and 3rd team All-American shooting buard is much closer.  TyTy Washington should be considered because it is truly unusual for a freshman guard to be anywhere near this high - but K-State, St. John's, BYU, Tennessee and the player who may have improved his team the most this year from last year - Alondes Williams of Wake Forest.
RnkTop Shooting Guards (2)TeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
1Terrell Brown #23Washington10.42P126'3"Sr
2Nijel Pack #24Kansas St.9.39B126'0So
3Posh Alexander #0St. John's8.8BE6'0So
4Alex Barcello #13BYU8.69WCC6'2"Sr
5Santiago Vescovi #25Tennessee8.65SEC6'3"Jr
6Alondes Williams #31Wake Forest8.15ACC6'5"Sr
7Garrett Sturtz #3Drake7.66MVC6'3"Sr
8Justin Moore #5Villanova7.53BE6'4"Jr
9Jaden Ivey #23Purdue7.05B106'4"So
10Brad Davison #34Wisconsin6.97B106'4"Sr
11Ryan Rollins #5Toledo6.72MAC6'4"So
12JD Notae #1Arkansas6.66SEC6'2"Sr
13Jaden Shackelford #5Alabama6.63SEC6'3"Jr
14Josh Jefferson #11Middle Tennessee6.39CUSA6'2"Sr
15TyTy Washington #3Kentucky6.34SEC6'3"Fr
16Eli Brooks #55Michigan6.17B106'1"Sr
17Umoja Gibson #2Oklahoma6B126'1"Sr
18Alfonso Plummer #11Illinois5.73B106'1"Sr
19Hunter Cattoor #0Virginia Tech5.71ACC6'3"Jr
20Dalen Terry #4Arizona5.65P126'7"Fr
21Reece Beekman #2Virginia5.62ACC6'3"So
22Buddy Boeheim #35Syracuse5.56ACC6'6"Sr
23Adam Flagler #10Baylor5.5B126'3"Jr
24Michael Jones #13Davidson5.49A106'5"Jr
25Grayson Murphy #2Belmont5.46OVC6'3"Sr
26Amorie Archibald #3Louisiana Tech5.41CUSA6'3"Sr
27Gibson Jimerson #24Saint Louis5.4A106'5"Fr
28Mason Archambault #11South Dakota5.25Sum6'0Sr
29Sean McNeil #22West Virginia5.23B126'3"Sr
30Rasir Bolton #45Gonzaga5.11WCC6'3"Sr
31Jabari Rice #10New Mexico St.5.05WAC6'4"Jr
32D'Moi Hodge #55Cleveland St.5.03Horz6'4"Sr
33Spencer Jones #14Stanford4.96P126'7"Jr
34James Reese V #0South Carolina4.93SEC6'4"Sr
35Rudi Williams #3Coastal Carolina4.92SB6'2"Sr
36Desmond Cambridge #4Nevada4.88MWC6'4"Sr
37Cameron Tyson #5Seattle4.87WAC6'2"So
38Trevor Keels #1Duke4.72ACC6'4"Fr
39Davion Warren #2Texas Tech4.7B126'6"Sr
40CJ Fleming #25Bellarmine4.7ASun6'0Sr
41Joe Bryant #4Norfolk St.4.62MEAC6'1"Sr
42Logan Johnson #0Saint Mary's4.54WCC6'2"Sr
43Demaree King #1Jacksonville St.4.52ASun6'0Jr
44Caleb Grill #2Iowa St.4.42B126'3"Jr
45Courtney Ramey #3Texas4.41B126'3"Sr
46Alex Hunter #10Furman4.41SC5'11"Sr
47Isaiah Wong #2Miami FL4.4ACC6'3"So
48Michael Forrest #11Florida Atlantic4.37CUSA6'1"Jr
49Tyler Harris #14Memphis4.36Amer5'9"Sr
50Terquavion Smith #0N.C. State4.35ACC6'4"Fr

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