Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Women's Basketball increasing Popularity Shown in Unique Visitors

We hoped to play Cheryl Miller and the 1983 USC squad against the 2017 South Carolina national champs to see which advanced to our All-Time Elite 8 in the Value Add Basketball Game - but too much work to finish tonight.. 

However, a good sign for the popularity of women's basketball was the 1,484 unique visitors on this page on Tuesday - easily the highest of the last three months and one of the highest since the huge audiences when we first released the game in 2019.  

This occurred after a stretch of posts on our first women's basketball tournament using the game - which now features 20 of the greatest women's teams of all-time. As shown on the blogger graph below, generally 100 to 200 unique visitors come to the page. The vast majority go straight to www.pudnersports.com, and we will hit a few hundred when someone takes an interest and reposts the page.

The other thing we cannot ignore is the impact of Notre Dame on the popularity of all sports. In our tournament, the Irish have pulled off the two big upsets to date to become the surprise team of the tournament.

This is just one of many good signs for women's basketball, which had five million viewers for their final last year (best since 6 million for Tennessee vs. UConn in 2004), several recent TV games have shown sell out arenas, and South Carolina coach Dawn Staley noted tickets for their visit to UConn were going for $700.

Here are the stats on the 15,800 unique visits the last three months, led by the 990 who clicked on the Value Add Basketball Game to bring that all-time total to 64,000 to date.

Sunday, February 26, 2023

Cinderella Notre Dame Ladies Pull Miracle in OT Win Over Stanford and Elite 8

In the day the real Notre Dame Ladies overcame an injury to claim a share of another ACC title, their 2018 squad pulled off the first true miracle in our all-time great Ladies tournament ... 

Trailing Stanford 74-69 Notre Dame with 40 seconds to play, Notre Dame put all 3-point shooters in the floor in desperation. The normal line-ups is the top row of players in the Value Add Basketball Game, but we wrote the end of game positions from 1 to 5 with big circles on the team sheet below, along with each players stats. 

We also chose the strategy of trying for a 3-pointer. When this is done, each players 3-point made range is increased by 1 for every 1 2-point made at the top of the range that can be turned into a 2-pt missed and rebound automatically goes to the defense. However no player can more than double their 3-pt range. You do not need to use Advanced rules to play the game, but it does allow strategies like this.

In English, the Notre Dame made shot ranges on the cards below changed to:

8-sided            Name                   3-pt made   2-pt-made     2-pt now missed, def reb
3, 6 & 7Ogunbowale1-6None7-9
8Poss TO  

For the top square of the 1 possession (0:16 seconds) box the 8-sided die was a "5", so the ball went to Jackie Young, and the 20-sided die was a 6, which is a 2-pointer made. Note the 3-pointer range can only be doubled, so Young's 3-point range could only be increased from 1-2 to 1-4 since the Irish did not have a 5th player with a higher 3-point range. The 20-sided die was a "6," which meant Young made a 2-pointer, still leaving Notre Dame behind 74-71. 

Only a steal or foul results in the spot under the diagonal slash being used as a last possession, thus requiring Notre Dame to use the advanced strategy of going for a turnover or fouling to prolong the game. When going for the steal or foul the 20-sided shot dice is not used, and if the result of the other three is a steal or turnover that result stands with the extra possession created. Any other result is a foul and two shots. The 8-sided die was a "5" sending the ball to Haley Jones, meaning only a 11-16 could be a steal by Jackie Young, or a 41-42 as a turnover on Jones offensive card. It just missed that range as a 43, sending Young to the foul line needing 1 of 2 shots to seal the win.

Jones free throw range was 1-14, a decent 70%, but the 20-sided die came up "20" and then "16" to give Notre Dame one desperation trip down the court needing a 3-pointer to force overtime.

Instead, Arike Ogunbowaie was fouled for two shots. The normal starting five were put back on the court for Notre Dame since at this point the only hope was to make the first free throw, miss the second and then have the two best possible offensive rebounders in the game. In actual basketball the home team grabs an offensive rebound about 33% of the time on a regular shot, but only 17% on a missed free throw - so in the game a missed free throw resulting in an offensive rebound by the Point Guard, Shooting Guard or Small Forward goes to the defense instead. Only the Power Forward (in this case Jackie Young, with a good 1-6 offensive rebound) or Center (in this case Jessica Shepard, with an even better 1-8 offensive rebound).

With the first free throw cutting it to 74-72, the rebound chart was a "10" on the 20-sided die, and a 10 or 20 goes to the highest rebounding range on the entire court (ties go to offense). In this case, Shepard's 1-8 Offensive Rebound topped Haley Jones Defensive Rebound of 1-7, so Jones had the rebound, and on the roll of the four dice scored herself for an unbelievable 74-74 tie and the first overtime came in our women's tournament.

We wrote the stats by each players name on the Notre Dame team sheet above, and the Stanford sheet below, which is followed by the scoresheet which includes the running score through the 5-minute overtime off to the right.

Ogunbowaie's 28-point, 6-rebound, 3-steal, 3-blocked shots game included a 12-6 personal run that cut Stanford's lead from 51-43 to 57-55. 

The overtime went back-and-forth, with Ogunbowaie hitting the final bucket to make it 87-84, and then Stanford also putting in their 3-point shooters as indicated below. 

The Irish will try to continue their Cinderella run next against the #1 all-time seed, 2016 UConn in the Elite 8.

The last Elite 8 spot will be filled by the winner of South Carolina 2017 vs. Cheryl Miller's 1983 team - a USC vs. USC battle. 

Friday, February 24, 2023

OSU Upset Bid Stopped by Best Player in World - A'ja Wilson; Final Bracket Set

 The 2016 Ohio State women trailed only 53-52 with 8:17 (14 possessions to play), then they ran into a wall named A'ja Wilson. The college player of the year in 2018 and WNBA player of the year in 2020 and 2022 blocked shots on three of the next four Ohio State trips down the court. The games are played using the free Value Add Basketball Game.

Then with 7 possessions left the South Carolina star scored off an offensive rebound, the immediately stole a pass and laid it in to make it 66-56. The next trip she grabbed another offensive rebound and was fouled and converted a free throw to make it 69-57.

South Carolina won 79-68 in the last home game of the tournament. The last 9 games will be in a neutral court. The next game will be a USC vs USC game as South Carolina plays Cheryl Miller's Lady Trojans of 1983. The 10 teams who won their first game now advance into this bracket:

Here are the first round results. Based on the margins we expected based on the cards, we expected the 10 favored home teams to go 8.6 - 1.4 and win by an average of 17.8 points in these first 10 games. In fact, they did go 9-1, but winning by an average of six points less - by 11.7 points per game including the negative 7 for the Notre Dame upset.

1st Round All-Time Women's TournamentHome FavoredPercentActual Score
#20 Long Beach St. 1987 at #1 Connecticut 20163499%UConn wins 98-53
#19 Duke 2006 at #2 Connecticut 20103299%UConn wins 75-66
#18 Old Dominion 1980 at #3 Tennessee 19983199%Tennessee wins 80-55
#17 Texas 2018 at #4 Louisiana Tech 19822598%La Tech wins 84-62
#16 Louisville 2014 at #5 Baylor 20191489%Baylor wins 76-69
#15 Oregon 2019 at #6 Baylor 20121387%Baylor wins 84-81
#14 Washington 2017 at #7 USC 1983979%USC wins 65-57
#13 Mississippi St. 2018 at #8 Stanford 2021979%Stanford wins 74-58
#12 Notre Dame 2018 at #9 Texas A&M 2011772%ND wins 76-69
#11 Ohio St. 2016 at #10 South Carolina 2017463%SC wins 79-68
Expected ave. margin for favorite 17.8 pts, actual 11.717.88.6Favorites Expected Record 8.6 - 1.4, Actual 9-1

Oregon 2019 and Washington 2017 might have won their games on a neutral court, but the first round the better seeds received home court advantage. In the game the home team can switch defensive rolls form 36 to 66 or vice versa. The rest of the games are neutral court.

Notre Dame Lady's Pull 1st Road Upset

 With the history of upsets by Notre Dame in multiple sports, perhaps the fact that their ladies pulled the first road upset of our all-time great Women's Tournament.

This Value Add Basketball Game was won 76-69 behind a dominant double double by Arike Ogunbowale (20 points, 10 rebounds), despite being fouled twice in the opening possessions on calls missed due to Texas A&M 2011 team being at home.

The 2018 Notre Dame team overcame those and another missed call and there would have been additional calls on Ogunbowale and Jackie Young except both players avoid all fouls on their card so even changing a 66 to 36 roll twice did not become a foul.

The lead was only 71-66 with 2:07 (4 possessions) to play. Ogunbowale then hit a 3-pointer to make it 74-66. Texas A&M scored to make it 74-68 and then put on a press, which entails not rolling the 20-sided die to men any result other than a steal or turnover becomes a foul and two free throws but creates and extra possession by stopping the clock.

Texas A&M got what they wanted, a 42 in the turnover range with a "5" on the 8-sided die to give the ball to Young (15 points, 9 rebounds, 4 blocked shots) who moved from power forward to center after a 5th foul on Jessica Shepard (11 points, 9 rebounds, 3 blocked shots). Note another rebound for each and the Irish would have had three players with double doubles.

However, because Young's turnover range is a great 41-41 the 42 was not a turnover but a foul. Young hit both free throws to make it 76-68, then at the other end of the court she rejected a 3-point shot by Danielle Adams that would have gone in (the 20-sided shot die was a 3 so in her 1-3 range for a made 3-pointer, but you always check defense as well and it was a 22, which any player in the court with a 21-26 can block). Young even grabbed the rebound and Notre Dame advanced 76-69.

The first 10 games of this tournament features the better seed as the home team, but then the rest of the games will be in a neutral court. The only remaining home game is South Carolina 2017 hosting Ohio State 2016.

Monday, February 20, 2023

Kelsey Plum Bests Cheryl Miller, but USC Rallies 65-57

 Kelsey Plum started the clash of two of the greatest players ever by drawing a foul on Cheryl Miller. She then hit both free throws - the second on a roll of "18" on the 20-sided due, which we assumed was a miss only to see her range is 1-18 good 19-20 miss as a 90% free throw shooter. 

Two trips later Plum hit a 3-pointer and the 2017 Washington team had a 27-20 lead over Millers's 1983 USC champs that inspired a movie. (click for free Value Add Basketball Game)

Washington had an edge these opening 7 possessions when we usually play reserves, because Plum, Natalie Romo and Chantel Osahor all have stamina of 44 or higher so were all three in for all 44 possessions, while Miller was the only USC player to do that.

Plum, who was third in WNBA MVP voting this year and is Tom Brady's favorite WNBA star, lead all scorers with 21 points to go with two blocks and steals, but more importantly drew five fouls on Miller to the bench. Miller already had 13 points, 7 rebounds and 4 steals. From Plum's Facebook page: The actual video of her opening the surprise gift.

Miller may have the best player card in the game, and is one of two ladies in our game who used to defeat their brothers as children - the other being Dennis Rodman's sister for Louisiana Tech the year before this USC season.

After Miller left the USC lead dwindled from 11 points to 4, but they held on for a 65-57 win.

However, this game might have come down to the wire except for four "home job" calls (in the game the home team can flip a 36 or 66 roll which calculates to the average home advantage in real games).

Home Job calls

At the end of the half Plum was call for a phantom foul on Miller, who went to the line and tied the game 29-29 at halftime.

The second possession of the 2nd half, Aair McDonald was called for a phantom foul and Cynthia Cooper cashed in at the line to make it 34-30 USC 

With 18 possessions left Plum actually drew a 5th foul on Miller, but the call was missed to let her get in several more crucial possessions.

With 8 possessions left Osahor drew a foul on Pam McGee that was missed.

This is the second game in which the home court advantage may have changed the result. The other was Britney Griner's three point opening round win in which two calls were missed.

The better seed in our first two rounds of this all-time great women's tournament get home court advantage, but the elite 8 will be neutral court games.

Sunday, February 19, 2023

Pac-12 Gets 2 spots - Stanford 74, Mississippi St. 58

 With USC and Washington set to play, the PAC-12 will have two teams in the second round as Stanford 2021 easily handled Mississippi State, 74-58.

Bracket for final 14 Women's All-Time great teams

 The following are the teams remaining in our All-Time Great Women's basketball tournament.

The teams to the left have not played yet, and note that each of them actually needs to win twice to get to the next bracket and play one of the UConn teams (seeded 1 and 2). 

The Mississippi State/Stanford winner will play the Notre Dame/Texas A&M winner - and the team that comes out of those four will face the #1 all-time seed, UConn 2016.

The Washington/USC winner will play the Ohio State/South Carolina winner - and the team that comes out of those four will face the #2 all-time seed, UConn 2010.

If Stanford loses, the USC-Washington game will also be considered the all-time Pac-12 championship as well.

1st Round All-Time Women's TournamentHome FavoredActual Score
#20 Long Beach St. 1987 at #1 Connecticut 201634UConn wins 98-53
#19 Duke 2006 at #2 Connecticut 201032UConn wins 75-66
#18 Old Dominion 1980 at #3 Tennessee 199831Tennessee wins 80-55
#17 Texas 2018 at #4 Louisiana Tech 198225La Tech wins 84-62
#16 Louisville 2014 at #5 Baylor 201914Baylor wins 76-69
#15 Oregon 2019 at #6 Baylor 201213Baylor wins 84-81
#14 Washington 2017 at #7 USC 19839TBD
#13 Mississippi St. 2018 at #8 Stanford 20219TBD
#12 Notre Dame 2018 at #9 Texas A&M 20117TBD
#11 Ohio St. 2016 at #10 South Carolina 20174TBD

Click here to print out the 20 all-time great teams, and then use the free Value Add Basketball Game to play your own match-ups or men's all-time great matchups (137 teams).

Griner, Sims Rally Baylor 84-81 Over Oregon - Tourney Set

 A lucky glitch, my printer ran out of black ink as I printed new scoresheets, and for some reason it defaulted to red - which I found much easier to read.

As we continue to move from the top seeds and huge favorites down to the more competitive games, Oregon 2019 dominated most of the game against Britney Griner's 2012 Baylor team. 

As shown on their Basketball Reference team page, Oregon actually had four future WNBA players compared to two for Baylor 2012 and that played out as Sabally and Ionescu dominated the Baylor forwards and helped offset Griner in side. The two combined for 40 points and 14 rebounds, to 15 points and 9 rebounds for their counterparts to take a 42-34 lead.

At that point the other future WNBA player Sims went on an incredible run of drawing fouls on 4 straight drives and hitting her first 11 free throws, eventually causing Boley and Chavez to foul out trying to guard her as she finished with 29 points and 16 of 18 from the line.

Griner finally started to find space against the three Oregon bigs, getting 16 points and 10 rebounds, but also coming up with her third steal of the game with 16 seconds left Oregon trailing only 82-79 and looking for a game-tying three pointers. Oregon fouled Griner, she hit both free throws, and the Oregon buzzer beater was meaningless as Baylor advainces 84-81.

The top six seeds all won, so all get a buy, and the 7th through 14th seeds each now need to win two games to join the top six in the Elite 8.

Baylor (2019 and Griner's 2012) Host Tourney Doubleheader

 Our #5 and #6 seeds were both Baylor teams, and since they would both host as better seeds, we made it a double header.

The 2019 team was up first, and the tournament is still "chalk" with the top five seeds winning, but this was a battle. Baylor's Kalani Brown, who along with Baylor's small forward Chloe Jackson played much of the game with four fouls, blocked a shot by Louisville 2014 center Asia Taylor. 

A score would have cut Baylor's lead to 74-71 with 53 seconds to play - but another score and stop by Baylor advanced them.

Here is their score sheet and starter cards, and below that we will add the results of the first game for Britney Griner and her 2012 Baylor team.

Baylor 2012 details to follow

Saturday, February 18, 2023

All-Time Great Women's Tournament Results

 Where the all-time great women's tournament stands - the top four seeds advanced in our Value Add Basketball Game results. A crossed off team was eliminated, a bolded team advanced.

1st Round All-Time Women's TournamentHome FavoredActual Score
#20 Long Beach St. 1987 at #1 Connecticut 201634UConn wins 98-53
#19 Duke 2006 at #2 Connecticut 201032UConn wins 75-66
#18 Old Dominion 1980 at #3 Tennessee 199831Tennessee wins 80-55
#17 Texas 2018 at #4 Louisiana Tech 198225La Tech wins 84-62
#16 Louisville 2014 at #5 Baylor 201914TBD
#15 Oregon 2019 at #6 Baylor 201213TBD
#14 Washington 2017 at #7 USC 19839TBD
#12 Mississippi St. 2018 at #8 Stanford 20219TBD
#13 Notre Dame 2018 at #9 Texas A&M 20117TBD
#11 Ohio St. 2016 at #10 South Carolina 20174TBD

2nd Round

Bottom Four Seeds to win in 1st round games play each other.

Elite 8 - 3rd Round

UConn 2016, UConn 2010, Tennessee 1998, Louisiana Tech 1982 and two additional highest seed winners to win in first round advance to Elite 8..

Two winners from Round 2 advance.

#1 UConn (2016) 98, #20 Long Beach State (1987) 53

UConn 2016 lived up to our billing of them as the greatest women's team of all time by scoring on their first 11 possessions and crushing to a 98-53 win against Long Beach State.

In the final possession UConn had a chance to be our first Value Add Basketball Game women's team to hit the century mark,  but Long Beach State Center Cindy Brown grabbed a miss to end the game.

The game took 26 minutes to play from first dice roll to last, a reminder of how quick we made this game if you want to play. We have now played the top four all-time teams in our tournament, and all won, with only UConn 2010 being threatened until late in teh game by Duke 2006.

1st Round All-Time Women's TournamentHome FavoredActual Score
#20 Long Beach St. 1987 at #1 Connecticut 201634UConn wins 98-53
#19 Duke 2006 at #2 Connecticut 201032UConn wins 75-66
#18 Old Dominion 1980 at #3 Tennessee 199831Tennessee wins 80-55
#17 Texas 2018 at #4 Louisiana Tech 198225La Tech wins 84-62
#16 Louisville 2014 at #5 Baylor 201914TBD
#15 Oregon 2019 at #6 Baylor 201213TBD
#14 Washington 2017 at #7 USC 19839TBD
#12 Mississippi St. 2018 at #8 Stanford 20219TBD
#13 Notre Dame 2018 at #9 Texas A&M 20117TBD
#11 Ohio St. 2016 at #10 South Carolina 20174TBD

We are working toward the more competitive first round games. Based on the cards, the closest match-up appears to be Ohio State vs. South Carolina, where we estimated South Carolina is about one point better. However, because the game includes a home court advantage (home team can flip rolls of 36 or 66) worth about 3 points a game, South Carolina is a 4-point favorite in that game as the home team.

Scoresheet for UConn 98, Long Beach State 53

We show the points, rebounds, steals and blocked shots in the columns for each team in the scoresheet in the photo.

Moriah Jefferson was the star of this game out of the eight future WNBA players - scoring 28 points and with four steals.

She was part of a UConn starting front line that outscored the Long Beach front line 59-18. Morgan Tufk had 16 points and superstar Breanna Stewart had 15 points, 9 rebounds and 4 blocked shots.

Despite the 35 point loss, Penny Toler was her normal incredible self with 17 points and six steals. We ranked the Final Four team that dominated the west in the 1980s as possible the weakest of our all-time great teams, but the duo of point guard Brown (21.9 ppg) and center Brown (27.8 ppg) could be the greatest duo in women's history. However, in this game UConn simply prevented the ball from getting isnide to Stewart.

Based on their player cards we estimated they were about 34 points better than the Long Beach cards if playing at home, so the 45 point win was an even better performance. After the game we looked at their actual season scores and saw they opened with a similar score of 100-56 at #7 Ohio State, and their last four tournament wins (all against ranked opponents) were by an average of 35 points.

Teams from Baylor, USC, Louisiana Tech, Stanford, Tennessee and Maya Moore's UConn team from six years earlier all have a chance against UConn 2016 in our game tournament, but they do look like the team to beat.

Statis-Pro baseball opening day with 2023 cards

 For the record, I am still in full basketball mode. However, having set up the Statis-Pro baseball cards for everyone, I do always want to play a couple of games to work out any kinks.

Plus it was interesting to play a double header in Milwaukee, going out and shoveling snow in Milwaukee in between games.

After the Cardinals win a crazy 11-9 extra inning game I also decided I'm going to real scoresheets after using condensed freehand to fit both games of a double header on one piece of paper.

Cardinals win the first game 6-1. Normally reliable Brewers bullpen fell apart in both.

Thursday, February 16, 2023

Statis-Pro 2023 Projected Pitchers All Complete - You can now play 2023 season

 We just added the Statis-Pro 2023 projected pitchers cards, so those of you have been asking now have all the pitchers, batters and ballpark factors on this one google sheet, and can start playing the 2023 season. We will use one of the best pitching staffs (along with the cross town Yankees) in baseball this year, the New York Mets, to go through the numbers for those of you not familiar with the cards (in sheet form for now) - and one new twist this year to the far right.

(note, as we went through the first game and double checked all, we ended up adjusting all pitchers hit ranges down by one. This is now reflected in the google sheet above and the screen shots below).

Average Batters     Average Pitcher

1B: 11-21                1B: 11-23
2B: 22-27                BK: 24
3B: -------                K: 25-45
HR: 28-32                W: 46-53
Deep: 33-35            WP: 54
K: 36-51                  CD-C: 55-56
W: 52-55                Out 57-88
HPB: 56
Out: 57-88

We put players in the order of a 4-man rotation in blue, then start with the top relievers (Edwin Diaz has the best card of any reliever in the game so is the ace reliever or closer.

While the Mets basically added Justin Verlander to replace an even better Jacob deGrom (a rare PB 2-9 starter as shown at the bottom). However, Mets fans may not mind that the once great Noah Syndergaard now projects to be the lowest of all rated PB 2-4 for the Dodgers. Obviously he has been dominant and could return to form, but so far he left the Mets at the right time for Mets fans.

The PB number is the most important number on the card, as on the die roll or fast action card anything in that range is controlled by the pitcher, while outside the range gives the batter a chance on his card at extra base hits etc. So Scherzer controls on a 2-8, the batter he is facing on a 9-12.''

We note LHP or RHP which matters based on whether the batter hits lefties or righties better.

The boxes numbers then show what happens if the action is on the pitcher's card.  So for Diaz an 11-20 (there is really no 19 or 20, so really this is 11-18) is a single allowed. A 21 maybe a balk (roll 8-sided die again and 1 or 2 is balk, 3-8 ignore). 22-54 is a strikeout. 55-63 is a walk allowed. 64 is a wild pitch, 65-66 is a chance for the catcher to make a clutch defensive play is anyone is on base, and 67-88 is an out on a ball put into play. Note each number is the top of the range.

FYI for those of you old timers like me who used the formulas back in the 1980s to make our own cards. The only formulas he messed up on back then was the charts for hits, strikeouts and walks which resulted in year of ridiculous PB 2-9, 11-14 hit ranges. You actually need to ADD three hits on average to a PB 2-9 card vs a PB 4-7, and LOWER the strikeouts by -6 if they are above average. Then +2 and -4 for PB 2-8 card, and +1 and -2 for a PB2-7 cards since they control the action most of the time.

The next numbers tell you how long the pitcher can pitch before he is tired and should be taken out or his PB will start to drop. If the pitcher is starting the game use his SR, and if relieving use his RR. Every time he allows a hit, walk, hit by pitch or earned run to score reduce that number by 1, and when an inning ends reduce it by 1. When his number hits 0 then start to reduce his PB by 1 and continue for every other item above that happens. even if a pitcher still has SR or RR left, if he hits his Max innings reduce him to 0 and take him out of the game unless you want him to pitch tired.

The projected ERA is just to give you an idea of how good he is, but really the PB does that.

Each pitcher has two fielding numbers. His Clutch Defense (CD) tells you how likely he is to make a tough defensive play - with CD-5 being a gold glove nominee level fielder, and CD-1 being a very poor fielder. The error (E) number is how likely he is to make an error, with an E10 meaning he could make an error on up to 1 in 10 players, while an E-1 rarely ever makes and error.

Finally the one new twist for this year, because the Mets' stats are projected based on them getting to pitch in a good pitcher's park, every time they fail to keep the action on the pitchers card, the batter gets one extra HR number on his card - replacing the lowest OUT number. So if a batter were Out: 57-88, then a 57 on the batters card is a Home Run, and 58-88 is still an out.

 The Colorado players are the reverse, with the poor pitchers getting to lower opposing batter's RNs by 2, while their batters had 2 HRs taken away. Therefore if a Colorado pitcher is on the mound and the opposing batter has a HR 31-34, then the 31 and 32 are still home runs, but the 33 and 34 are flyouts.

You now have everything you need to play the game this season.

This year my friend is playing the AL and I am playing the NL. We are both playing out what we perceive as the top 10 teams in our league (we switch leagues every year.

For my NL

Arizona Diamondbacks 

Atlanta Braves  

Chicago Cubs    

Los Angeles Dodgers      

Milwaukee Brewers        

New York Mets 

Philadelphia Phillies        

San Diego Padres             

San Francisco Giants       

St. Louis Cardinals

I play a quirky rule that if a team wins and was leading by at least 5 runs at the end of the 8th inning then they get credit for a 3 game sweep for the on game, while in all other games they get credit for winning a series 2 games to one. However, my friend plays it straight up one game is one game.

for his AL

The 2023 AL looks like this:


New York

Tampa Bay











Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Statis-Pro Baseball Projected Batters' Cards Debut

While still focused on basketball for another month, the requests for the 2023 projected Statis-Pro baseball cards are mounting, and we have completed the batters.

Click on this google sheet for the projected batters by team, and we have put the team in a potential batting order. As an example, here are the defending champion Houston Astros. 

We based fielding on Defensive Runs Saved over the past three seasons to determine the clutch defensive rating of 1 to 4 and the throwing arms and errors. The clutch defensive CD-5s were only giving to players nominated for Gold Gloves in 2022, and for pitchers nominated any time in the last four years. However, if a player has yet to play a single inning in an MLB infield, we noted that and do not have defense calculated yet.

Note, since initial post, we added the splits. Tucker strikes out on an 11 against left handed pitchers (number to left of slash), while Altuve singles and runners advance two bases on an 88 against lefties. The reserve is true against righties. Keep in mind the platoon adjustments are made whether the action is on the batters card or on the opposing pitchers card. The numbers are more extreme for Brantley (11-13 K against LHP, 87--88 single advance 2 against RHP) and McCormick (87-88 single advance 2 against lefties, K on 11 vs righties). I took each players combined batting average over the past three years against lefties, righties and overall, to calculate these splits.

When a ball is hit in the DEEP range you go to the chart below based on where the game is being played to see if it is a home run, or just a deep drive.

I finally figured out the only exact way to adjust the batters and pitchers the exact same amount based on their ballpark. When I finish the pitcher's cards, those who pitched in a big hitters park or big pitchers park will have the advantage or disadvantage of always adjusting the opposing batters RN during the game. This is exactly fair because this is the adjustment we make to the batters card before setting the deep range.

.For example, the ultimate pitchers' park the last three years has been San Diego's PETCO Park, so a huge advantage for their pitchers and disadvantage for their batters. The flip side as always is the Colorado Rockies Coors Field.

A note on all Rockies' pitchers cards will now say "subtract 2 from batter's RN which will be in effect except you cannot adjust below a 15 or above an 84 to avoid messing up the platoon numbers. That helps the Colorado pitchers just as the Colorado batters actually had the home run range in their card calculations lowered by 3 when calculating their cards.

Meanwhile the San Diego pitcher's cards will include the note "add one to batters card" to offset the fact that they have a big advantage of playing in a pitchers park, while their batters cards were calculated understanding that, and therefore their batters had the DEEP range added on top of their home run range that was calculated.

Rodman's Sister Starts La Tech's 84-62 blowout of Longhorns

When Jennifer White steals the ball on the first play of the game, and passes ahead to Dennis Rodman's sister for the layup just seconds into the game, it's not your day Texas Longhorns.

When you realize this is the young Debra Rodman who Dennis Rodman said (click for story pictured below) defeated him on the basketball court when they were kids, and on the 1982 national champs from Louisiana Tech she was the BACK-UP center to the great Pam Kelly - it's really not your day. 

Kudos again to the incredible upgrade a Basketball Reference to recently release many women's seasons with more to come - which will make our women's cards more and more accurate after piecing stats together in some cases for the Value Add Basketball Game.

Rodman and the second string blitzed the Longhorns 12-2 in their seven possessions on the court, then Pam Kelly (23 points, 9 rebounds, 3 blocked shots), powered to a 75-49 lead before some late baskets by the Longhorns backcourt tightened the final slightly to 84-62, in the Value Add Basketball Game.

The one brightspot for the Longhorns was the starting back court of Brook McCarthy (14 points) and Ariel Atkins (17 points, 5 steals), but on the possessions on which Texas did not force a turnover, Louisiana Tech averaged an amazing 2.1 points per trip down the court.

Three of the four heavy favorites that are quite possibly the four best teams in the history of women's college basketball, will advance to the Elite 8 - and the 1-seed UConn 2016 is a heavy favorite to beat #20 seed Long Beach State and join them.

Louisiana Tech held Texas to just 19 rebounds the entire game.

Developing #17 Texas 2018 women at #4 Louisiana Tech

 Our 3rd of 4 heavily favored 1st round teams Louisiana Tech hosts the Texas Longhorns next. Will see if we can fit it in Tuesday night after work.

After calculating the cards of 20 all-time great women's, four looked almost unbeatable for the opening round. Of the other three, Tennessee 1998 did blow out ODU 1979, but May Moore's UConn team faced a stronger than expected challenge from Duke 2006 before winning by then. After this game UConn 2016 will be the only of the top four to play. After playing these four heavy favorites, the six more competitive opening round games will be played.

Kudos again to the incredible upgrade a Basketball Reference to recently release many women's seasons with more to come - which will make our women's cards more and more accurate after piecing stats together in some cases for the Value Add Basketball Game.

Monday, February 13, 2023

Maya Moore 27 pts let's UConn Avoid Duke Upset

 In what we assumed would be simply a warmup game for Maya Moore's 2010 team, 19-seed Duke led 48-45 with 13:50 or 23 possessions left.

Monique Curry opened the game with consecutive 3-pointers and then had the first of eight blocked shots for the 2006 national runners-up Duke.

UConn finally took the lead on consecutive threes for a 51-48 lead, then Maya Moore scored a couple of times to make it a 12-0 run to make it 57-48 UConn.

But Duke kept it to 66-70 until 2:44 or 5 possessions to play. The play that finally put it away occurred then. Moore hit a 3-pointer while being fouled to make it 66-73. She missed the free throw but Kalana Greene grabbed the rebound and scored to make it 75-66.

Moore finished with 27 points, 10 rebounds and two steals in the 84-74 win.

The UConn 2010 team won a second straight national title to complete a 78-0 record, and appeared to be one of the top four seeds that would have easy opening wins because they consolidated so much talent. Tennessee 1998 did win in a blowout, and UConn 2016 and Louisiana Tech are expected to as well, but Duke made this one a lot closer than we expected.

Pat Summitt's 1998 Lady Vols 80, Liebermann's 1980 ODU 55

Even against perhaps the best women's team in history, ODU's Nancy Lieberman was spectacular with 17 points and 6 steals. However, all five starters scored in double figures for Pat Summitt's 39-0 Tennessee squad from 1998, and center Chamique Holdsclaw scored 12 points with 14 rebounds and four blocked shots as the Lady Vols started the second half on a 12-1 run to pull away for an easy 80-55 win.

For those who play the game, the table in the game instructions showed as overwhelming Vols edge. Tennessee's "51-54=Layup" combined with ODUs defensive "adjust opp LU by 4" combined to give the Vols an uncontested lay-up on a 51-62 on the 11-66 roll each time they had the ball. The suffocating 39-0 Tennessee national champs played out in their -3 on on their adjustment - since ODU had no lay-ups their offensive cards, the -3 on the Tennessee cards meant on rolls of 51-53 the Vols had an automatic STOP meaning missed shot on defensive rebound.

The game took 37 minutes to play as we start from a 20-20 tie and give each team 44+ possessions. With the reserves in for the first seven possessions, ODU's Noreen Kemether hit a 3-pointer immediately, and when the starters came in for both teams with 37 possessions left ODU was within 26-28. However the Tennessee starters were just too much.

Below the starters we show the box score on the game followed by a photo of our first scoresheet in women's play.

Tennessee had home court advantage as the #3 seed, but for the first time in one of our games the 18-seed ODU did not get a single bad call. This was our first Value Add Basketball Game with our new all-time great women's team cards. Tennessee is one of 10 teams to host an opening round game, and will be one of six teams to get a buy to the quarterfinals as one of the top six seeds to advance. The bottom four seeds to advance will be the only teams with a 2nd round game as they will play second round games against each other to get to the quarterfinals.

Here is the box score.

at #3 Tennessee 80, #18 Old Dominion 55

#18 Old Dominion 1980 PtsRebStealsBlocksFouls
Nancy Lieberman172624
Angela Cotman31102
Rhonda Rompola64102
Inge Nissen25004
Anne Donovan138031
Chris Critelli21001
Sue Brown22002
Noreen Kemether64002
Linda Jerome22002
Susan Richardson21001
Old Dominion 1980 Totals55308521

Turnovers: ODU 15, Tennessee 14
#3 Tennessee 1988PtsRebStealsBlocksFouls
Kristen "Ace" Clement163101
Kellie Jolly114112
Tamika Catchings105301
Semeka Randall135101
Chamique Holdsclaw1214044
Laurie Milligan21001
Brynae Laxton32001
Niya Butts51002
LaShonda Stephens62001
Teresa Geter24001
Tennessee 1988 Totals80416515

Based on our calculation of the cards, Tennessee was actually a 31-point favorite in the game with the top four seeds heavily favored. South Carolina calculates as just one point better than Ohio State based on their player cards, but with home advantage being worth three points they are favored by four.

Match-upHome FavoredActual
#20 Long Beach St. 1987 at #1 Connecticut 201634 
#19 Duke 2006 at #2 Connecticut 201032 
#18 Old Dominion 1980 at #3 Tennessee 199831W 80-55
#17 Texas 2018 at #4 Louisiana Tech 198225 
#16 Louisville 2014 at #5 Baylor 201914 
#15 Oregon 2019 at #6 Baylor 201213 
#14 Washington 2017 at #7 USC 19839 
#12 Mississippi St. 2018 at #8 Stanford 20219 
#13 Notre Dame 2018 at #9 Texas A&M 20117 
#11 Ohio St. 2016 at #10 South Carolina 20174 
2nd round  
Bottom 4 winners in 1st round face off  
Two second round winners join Elite 8 

20 All-Time Great Women Basketball Teams Now a Click Away

 Click here for player cards for each of the 20 All-Time Great Women's Basketball teams for use with the Value Add Basketball Game.

Here is an image of one of the teams - the 2010 National Champs from UConn.

Women's BB All-Time Great Team Player Cards Debut for Value Add Basketball Game

For the first time, we now have All-Time great college women's basketball teams for use with our Value Add Basketball Game. We will turn these into cards, but you can play the game using them as sheets. Just find the team you want to play and print out that sheet and it will print that sheet with three teams. The last of seven sheets with Cheryl Miller's USC team includes notes on what each range means by the player. 

Once I calculated the cards, I ran the numbers and it appears the two UConn teams and Pat Summitt's undefeated Tennessee team have the best cards, and all three would probably beat the average women's college basketball team by 50 points.

Not far behind them it appears both Baylor teams, the original NCAA champ Louisiana Tech, and Cheryl Miller's USC team could be the next best. After watching South Carolina destroy #3 LSU before the Super Bowl last night, it looks to me like they will be even better than the 2021 team I have in the game, which looks like the 8th best team in the game.

Seed    Great Team            Year           Cards pts above average
4Louisiana Tech198243.6
9Texas A&M201137.9
10South Carolina201735.0
11Ohio St.201634.3
12Mississippi St.201833.7
13Notre Dame201833.7
18Old Dominion198020.0
20Long Beach St.198718.6

While we have had more than 64,000 unique visitors to the game, I'm sure many others with no interest in playing a board game might still like looking over the sheets to get a feel for how good great players were.

We did try to keep it to one team per school to include as many schools as possible, but as you can see at the top did include two teams each for both Baylor and UConn out of our 20 total colleges represented. 

Stats are much hard to pull together for many of these teams, and we also calculated in WNBA stats for everyone who played there, and in other cases had to pull together multiple box scores from individual games to accurately rank a player. 

Saturday, February 11, 2023

Great 18 Women's Teams Chosen for Game

We pulled together as many stats as we could for the history of college basketball, and chose these 18 teams for our initial All-Time Great Women's teams. We might have the player cards ready this weekend for use with the free Value Add Basketball Game.

Update, we did pull together the Long Beach State 1987 Final Four team, so these players will replace the more recent team listed below for the school.

We tried to limit every school to one team so that more would be represented, but did feel we had to include two teams from both Baylor and UConn. The first five players listed for each team are the players we plan to start, and each team has five reserves.

We list the teams in chronological order, starting with Nancy Lieberman's ODU two years before the NCAA had their first women's tournament.
YearCollegeP;auerStart?Notes on team or player
1980Old DominionRec: 72-2 (2 yr), SRS: NATitle"Magic" Lady pre-NCAA
1980Old DominionNancy LiebermansHOF -WNBA assists at 48 yrs old!
1980Old DominionInge NissensDouble-double machine
1980Old DominionAnne DonovansDouble-double machine
1980Old DominionAngela Cotmans 
1980Old DominionRhonda Rompolas 
1980Old DominionChris Critellir 
1980Old DominionSusan Richardsonr 
1980Old DominionLinda Jeromer 
1980Old DominionSue Brownr 
1980Old DominionNoreen Kemetherr 
1982Louisiana TechRec: 35-1, AP: 1stTitle1st official NCAA champs
1982Louisiana TechPam Kellys20.3 ppg, 9.1 reb
1982Louisiana TechJanice LawrencesHall of Fame
1982Louisiana TechAngela TurnersAll-American
1982Louisiana TechKim MulkeysHall of Fame
1982Louisiana TechLori Scotts 
1982Louisiana TechDebra Rodmanr 
1982Louisiana TechTia Sossamonr 
1982Louisiana TechPam Gantr 
1982Louisiana TechJennifer WhiterBig off bench in title game
1982Louisiana TechJulie Wilkersonr 
1983USCRec: 31-2, SRS: NATitleCheryl Miller best ever?
1983USCCheryl MillersPOY, HOF 20.4, 9.7 R, 3.5 St
1983USCPaula McgeesAll-American
1983USCPam McgeesAll-American
1983USCCynthia CoopersHall of Fame
1983USCRhonda Windhams 
1983USCJamaiia Bondr 
1983USCJuliette Robinsonr 
1983USCKathy DoylerAll-Conf another yr
1983USCMelissa Wardr 
1983USCYolanda FletcherrHit big shots in F4
1998TennesseeRec: 39-0, AP: 1stTitlePat Summitt's most dominant
1998TennesseeChamique HoldsclawsPOY, Hall of Fame
1998TennesseeTamika Catchingss1 of 3 could score 20 a game
1998TennesseeKellie Jollys1 of 3 could score 20 a game
1998TennesseeSemeka Randalls 
1998TennesseeKristen "Ace" Clements 
1998TennesseeTeresa Geterr 
1998TennesseeNiya Buttsr 
1998TennesseeLaShonda Stephensr 
1998TennesseeBrynae Laxtonr 
1998TennesseeLaurie Milliganr 
2006DukeRec: 31-4, SRS: 24Runner-upLed by 13 in Title Game vs. MD
2006DukeAlison Baless15 pt, 13 reb to upset Uconn
2006DukeMonique CurriesStrong WNBA
2006DukeMistie Williamss 
2006DukeLindsey Hardings 
2006DukeWanisha Smiths 
2006DukeAbby Wanerrcould score 10 off bench
2006DukeChante Blackr 
2006DukeJessica Foleyr 
2006DukeLaura Kurzr45% 3-pt, 87% FT
2006DukeCarrem Gayr63% FG despite inj
2010ConnecticutRec: 39-0, SRS: 50TitleOnly 2 w/ SRS 50 are UConn
2010ConnecticutMaya MooresPlayer of the Year
2010ConnecticutTina Charless18 ppg, 10 rpg
2010ConnecticutKalana Greenes 
2010ConnecticutTiffany Hayess 
2010ConnecticutCaroline Dotys 
2010ConnecticutMeghan Gardlerr 
2010ConnecticutKelly Farisr 
2010ConnecticutKaili McLarenr 
2010ConnecticutLorin Dixonr 
2010ConnecticutHeather Buckr 
2011Texas A&MRec: 33-5, SRS: 39TitleMost dominant 1 player title
2011Texas A&MDanielle Adamss22.3 ppg, 8.5 rpg
2011Texas A&MTyra Whites 
2011Texas A&MSydney Carters 
2011Texas A&MAdaora Elonus 
2011Texas A&MSydney Colsons 
2011Texas A&MKarla Gilbertr 
2011Texas A&MMaryann Bakerr 
2011Texas A&MAdrienne Pratcherr 
2011Texas A&MKelsey Assarianr 
2011Texas A&MSkylar Collinsr 
2012BaylorRec: 40-0, SRS: 43TitlePOY & next POY
2012BaylorBrittney GrinersPOY, 23 ppg, 9 rpg
2012BaylorOdyssey SimssPOY, HOF
2012BaylorDestiny Williamss 
2012BaylorKimetria Haydens 
2012BaylorJordan Maddens 
2012BaylorBrooklyn Poper 
2012BaylorTerran Condreyr 
2012BaylorAshley Fieldr 
2012BaylorSune Agbuker 
2012BaylorMakenzie Robertsonr 
2016ConnecticutRec: 38-0, SRS: 52TitleHighest SRS ever, 52
2016ConnecticutBreanna StewartsPlayer of the Year
2016ConnecticutMoriah Jeffersons2.6 steals per game
2016ConnecticutMorgan Tucks 
2016ConnecticutKatie Lou Samuelsons 
2016ConnecticutKia Nurses 
2016ConnecticutGabby Williamsr 
2016ConnecticutNapheesa Collierr 
2016ConnecticutNatalie Butlerr 
2016ConnecticutSaniya Chongr 
2016ConnecticutCourtney Ekmarkr 
2016Ohio St.Rec: 26-8, SRS: 27Sweet 16Need little more help for Kelsey
2016Ohio St.Kelsey MitchellsPOY 26 ppg
2016Ohio St.Ameryst Alstons18 ppg
2016Ohio St.Alexa Harts11 ppg, 8 rpg
2016Ohio St.Asia Dosss 
2016Ohio St.Cait Crafts 
2016Ohio St.Shayla Cooperr13.3, 8.1 off bench
2016Ohio St.Makayla Watermanr 
2016Ohio St.Lisa Blairr 
2016Ohio St.Kaylan Pughr 
2016Ohio St.Chelsea Mitchellr 
2017Long Beach St.Rec: 23-11, SRS: 41st roundNot enough stats 87 & 88 Final 4
2017Long Beach St.Madison Montgomerys 
2017Long Beach St.Anna Kims 
2017Long Beach St.Jewelyn Sawyers 
2017Long Beach St.Gigi Hascheffs 
2017Long Beach St.Martina McCowans 
2017Long Beach St.Raven Bentonr 
2017Long Beach St.Jessica Gertzr 
2017Long Beach St.Cecily Wilsonr 
2017Long Beach St.Chanterria Jacksonr 
2017Long Beach St.Katie Websterr 
2017South CarolinaRec: 33-4, SRS: 36TitleCould have another title this yr
2017South CarolinaA'ja WilsonsPlayer of the Year
2017South CarolinaAllisha Grays 
2017South CarolinaKaela Daviss 
2017South CarolinaAlaina Coatess 
2017South CarolinaTyasha Harriss 
2017South CarolinaBianca Cuevas-Moorer 
2017South CarolinaMikiah Herbert Harriganr 
2017South CarolinaDoniyah Clineyr 
2017South CarolinaVictoria Patrickr 
2017South CarolinaAraion Bradshawr 
2017WashingtonRec: 29-6, SRS: 34Sweet 16Pac-12 rising back to top
2017WashingtonKelsey PlumsAll-time great, 31.7 ppg
2017WashingtonChantel Osahors16 ppg, 15 rpg
2017WashingtonNatalie Romeos 
2017WashingtonAari McDonalds 
2017WashingtonKatie Colliers 
2017WashingtonHeather Corralr 
2017WashingtonHannah Johnsonr 
2017WashingtonMai-Loni Hensonr 
2017WashingtonDeja Strotherr 
2017WashingtonAmber Melgozar 
2018Notre DameRec: 35-3, SRS: 36TitleRallied from 13 down for title
2018Notre DameArike OgunbowalesPlayer of the Year
2018Notre DameJessica Shepards16 ppg, 8 reb
2018Notre DameJackie Youngs 
2018Notre DameMarina Mabreys2 steals per game
2018Notre DameKathryn Westbelds 
2018Notre DameKristina Nelsonr 
2018Notre DameDanielle Pattersonr 
2018Notre DameLili Thompsonr 
2018Notre DameMikayla Vaughnr 
2018Notre DameKaitlin Coler 
2018TexasRec: 28-7, SRS: 33Sweet 16Two Elite 8s since then, so close
2018TexasAriel Atkinss15 ppg, 3 steals per game
2018TexasBrooke McCartys 
2018TexasLashann Higgss 
2018TexasJatarie Whites 
2018TexasAudrey-Ann Caron-Goudreaus 
2018TexasSug Suttonr 
2018TexasJoyner Holmesr 
2018TexasJordan Hoseyr 
2018TexasRellah Boother 
2018TexasJada Underwoodr 
2019BaylorRec: 37-1, SRS: 42TitleAbout equal to Griner's team
2019BaylorKalani Browns15.8 ppg
2019BaylorLauren Coxs 
2019BaylorChloe Jacksons 
2019BaylorJuicy Landrums 
2019BaylorDiDi Richardss 
2019BaylorNaLyssa SmithrPOY later
2019BaylorQueen Egbor 
2019BaylorMoon Ursinr 
2019BaylorHonesty Scott-Graysonr 
2019BaylorAquira DeCostar 
2019OregonRec: 33-5, SRS: 38Final 4Covid season was shot at title
2019OregonSabrina Ionescusall-time great
2019OregonSatou Saballys 
2019OregonRuthy Hebards16 ppg, 9 rpg
2019OregonErin Boleys 
2019OregonMaite Cazorlas 
2019OregonOti Gildonr 
2019OregonTaylor Chavezr 
2019OregonLydia Giomir 
2019OregonMorgan Yaegerr 
2019OregonNyara Saballyr 
2021StanfordRec: 19-2, SRS: 42TitleFollowed title w/ Final 4, next?
2021StanfordKiana Williamss 
2021StanfordHaley Joness 
2021StanfordLexie Hulls 
2021StanfordCameron Brinks 
2021StanfordAnna Wilsons 
2021StanfordFrancesca Belibir 
2021StanfordHannah Jumpr 
2021StanfordAshten Prechtelr 
2021StanfordLacie Hullr 
2021StanfordJana Van Gytenbeekr