Showing posts with label Iowa basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa basketball. Show all posts

Sunday, December 25, 2022

B10 VABG Reminder Set-up for Game and Home Advantages

For Christmas Day Basketball we decided to use the home advantage advanced rules for some Big Ten match-ups. Under the Value Add Basketball Game rules games can be played on a neutral site, which we have done with most of the games we have tracked.

This blog is a good reminder on how to set up the game - see steps through the end of the blog.

However, we chose to play the following three Big Ten games with a home advantage:

Iowa 2021 at Indiana 1981
Michigan 1989 at Iowa 2021
Illinois 1989 at Michigan 1965

Under these rules, the home team can reverse any role of 36 or 66. If the visiting team has the ball and a "36" comes up, that would usually (but not always) result in the home team committing a foul. The home team can reverse that to a "66" so the referee missed the foul call. The reverse is also true, if the home team has the ball and a 66 is rolled, the home offense can reverse the result to a "36" which means the referee gave them a foul call that should not have been called. 

Over the course of a game, that will result in a few bad calls in favor of the home team, that will result in about a 3-point advantage for the home team.

The reason we picked those teams is that it gets them all to three games played - the teams ranked #1 to #37 have all played between three and nine games, so we are trying to work through and get every great team up to at least three games played.

We can then have Loyola Marymount travel to #49 Missouri, which will mean the top 49 teams have all played at least three games. 

Here are the teams ranked from #38 to #47 all-time. The number to the left is their ranking among all-time great teams in our game. After a key player from their team is listed, we then list their average points score and allowed, and then an overall ranked and their conference. So Michigan 1965 featuring Cazzie Russell is 1-1, has won their average game by a 81.0 to 71.5 score, and has a rating of 2.5.
 
38Michigan1965Cazzie Russell  11     81  71.5   2.5B10
39Iowa2021  Luka Garza   10      88    69   2.4      B10
40Loyola Marymount (WCC)1990  Bo Kimble   11  119.5    110   2.3     Mid-Maj
41Syracuse2003  Carmelo Anthony   21      76     74   2.3      ACC
42Illinois1989  Nick Anderson   11      78     77    2      B10
43Oklahoma1985  Wayman Tisdale   31    75.3   73.8  1.9      B-12
44Cincinnati2002  Jason Maxiell   22    72.8    71.5  1.9      Amer
45Missouri1982  Steve Stipanovich   20    69.5    65.5  1.5      SEC
46Michigan1989  Glen Rice   02    70.5    78.5  1.3      B10
47Indiana1981   Isaiah Thomas   11      73      73  1.3      B10

Other Set up reminders

When you set up the game, there are adjustment reminders if you plan not to use all players, since each player starts with at least 2 points, 1 foul and 1 rebound that must be given to other players. In this case 1981 Indiana's players have enough stamina that you only need seven players. Since 2 players will not be in the game, I added two points each to Isaiah Thomas (top right), Wittman and Tolbert to start each with 4 points instead of 2 points to give Indiana 20 points at the start of the 20-20 play in the game.

For the 3 rebounds we need to replace, I always work up from the starting center (Turner) so add one rebound to him and then one to Tolbert and Kitchel, the two forwards (we still call the "3" and the "4" the small forward and power forward for easy reference, even though they are often really just bigger guards with modern teams. 

Finally and most important, we need to add three fouls, and try to do it in hopes that the extra foul doesn't make anyone foul out. Obviously I added a foul to two subs, but then picked Wittman for the other extra foul since with only a "36" for fouls on his card - particularly in a home game where a 36 can be turned to a 66 - he is less likely to pick up additional fouls.

The other key in this game is the low dunk ranges and good defensive adjustments to opponents dunk ranges. If you go to the chart in teh game, Iowa is a 51-50, which means they have no automatic dunks, while Indiana calculates as a 51-48, and since that is two below no dunks it actually changes to any 51-52 being a STOP - meaning the shot is missed and defensive player gets the rebound automatically.


The instructions show coins being used to keep track of who is in the game, but another method is just to write the numbers on the team sheet. In this case, Isaiah Thomas and two other starters will play the whole game, so I write 1, 2 and 4 on their cards to show they will be in the whole game, but then 3 and 5 by the two players who will be replaced by a player on the top line. Once I cross those out and write 3 and 5 on the top line I will circle those because they will be in for the rest of the game once inserted.

Also wrote out who gets the ball on the 6, 7 or 8 roll as shown (we suggest using dimes on player getting an extra die roll if you use coins to track who is in the game).








Notice Iowa is much more confusing in their substitutions, with all 10 players being used a lot and noone on the team playing the whole game. Therefore noone is circled, but I also had to play around trying to figure out the possessions each should be in the game and writing in what possessions they would play at what position. One reason I try to play each team a few times is to catch where I have not listed suggestion rotations for a team, so I will likely add the numbers written on these cards back on the master set of cards on the google docs. Also notice that Keegan Murray, who went onto be one of the top players in the country the next year, actually played less than half of games in this season while Luka Garza was National Player of the Year.


Some who play the game have had trouble getting the scoresheet to print out correctly, with the top line being cut off or all 21 images printing from the instructions when they want to just print the scoresheet. I will show these in reverse order, but the image below shows what you hope to see on your printer that will give you a clean print of the whole scoresheet.

The screen below shows how you get to this screen - click on the scoresheet, then right click on it and save the image to your computer. From that point on, you can always pull that image up from your computer to print this image.








Sunday, November 20, 2022

College Hoops 2nd Best Conference History - Big Ten

The second greatest conference so far in our Value Add Basketball Game is the Big Ten - which has had 21 National Champions, and Maryland won the title in 2002 before joining the Big Ten. Here is the list by school - Chicago 1907-1909; Illinois 1915; Indiana 1940, 1953, 1976, 1981,1987; Maryland 2002; Michigan 1989; Michigan State 1979, 2000; Minnesota 1902, 1919; Northwestern 1931; Ohio State 1960; Purdue 1932; Wisconsin 1912, 1914, 1916, 1941.

The conference is led so far by the last undefeated team in basketball, Bobby Knight's 1976 squad, followed by the last actual Big Ten Champion, the 2000 Michigan State Spartans.

It truly is amazing the Big Ten has technically not won a title this century (2000 is technically is the last year of the 20th century). Consider that Frank Kaminsky led Wisconsin to a 2015 Final Four upset against the Kentucky team that was considered by some the greatest ever until that game. Further only a bizarre final few seconds cost Purdue a win over eventual national champ Virginia in 2018.  Michigan State is constantly on the verge of a title.

So far the top 6 teams in the conference are 15-6 against the other greatest teams, and rank second with a 5.8 rating - which estimates they are about 6 points better than the average great team in the game - or about 27 points better than the average team.


RnkGreat TeamYearKey Player           W  L  Pts    Allow  Rate
 Top 6 Other Conf  15673.768.25.8
1Indiana1976Scott May3171.359.89.6
2Michigan St.2000Mateen Cleaves3088.378.37.3
3Purdue2018Carsen Edwards4171.268.85.0
4Michigan1989Glen Rice0169.070.04.6
5Illinois2005Deron Williams3272.069.64.3
6Michigan St.1979Magic Johnson2170.362.74.1
7Wisconsin2015Frank Kaminsky2265.063.33.4
8Michigan1965Cazzie Russell1181.071.52.5
9Iowa2021Luka Garza1088.069.02.4
10Ohio St.1960Jerry Lucas0178.079.02.2
11Illinois1989Nick Anderson1178.077.02.0
12Indiana1981Isaiah Thomas1173.073.01.3
13Michigan St.2009Draymond Green6371.371.90.9
14Michigan2013Trey Burke1270.369.70.3
15Ohio St.2007Greg Oden2370.271.4-0.4
16Purdue1969Rick Mount0186.087.0-0.8
17Maryland1984Len Bias1169.568.5-3.2
18Indiana2002Jared Jeffries1367.372.8-3.9
19Maryland2002Juan Dixon1367.076.3-4.0
20Iowa2001Reggie Evans1271.075.3-5.3



We invented the Value Add Basketball Game, and since then have grown it to to 135 teams of all-time great teams and players. We have played 188 games to date, and 63,000 unique visitors have clicked on the game. 

Seven current conferences have at least six all-time great teams in the game. We decided to rank those conferences based on the average rating of their top six teams so far in our games against other teams.

Click on the game to play yourself - it contains everything you need to play the Value Add Basketball game, which lets you pit any of 136 great all-time college teams against each other. To pick your two teams it is best to click on this Google doc and print the pages of the teams you want (each team is one page). I track my games on this google sheet, but play your own for free!

Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Best Power Forwards in College Basketball This Season

 In Value Add Basketball we consider the team's "power forward" the player who behind the team's "center" has some combination of the most defensive rebounds, blocked shots and height, but typically the fewest assists and steals. A great center or power forward will typically have even better raw numbers than a great point guard, because the guards typically need to get the ball to a power forward or center close to the basket for a closer shot.  (for a summary of the top players at each position, click here).

Because www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates how many points per game a player improves his team compared to if a typical replacement player took his place, the raw value add is adjusted by position since the replacement player would be at the same position. Therefore, once the formulas are run, and power forward's raw value add is lowered by multiplying it by 0.95 to get the result you see below and at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

In general, freshmen make so many mistakes (turnovers, bad shots etc.) the first half of the season that they do not rank nearly as high as more experienced players. However, they tend to improve more at the end of the season, so we watch for breakout freshmen first when looking at brackets. Therefore we start with the 10 most valuable freshmen centers in college basketball, starting with the most talented future NBA prospect, Auburn's Jabari Smith, who improves Auburn by 7.14 points per game - meaning there is a better than 50/50 chance Auburn would have LOST any game that they won by fewer than seven points. This calculations were run before Auburn's win against Vanderbilt Wednesday, during which Smith had his first 30-point game, so he is gaining value. 

In his case, he improves the Auburn offense by 4.44 points per game, while his defensive rating of -2.70 indicates he takes three to four points more away from the opposing team then a typical replacement power forward. Here are the most valuable 10 freshmen power forwards through games of February 15.

RnkTop Freshmen Power ForwardsTeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
7Jabari Smith #10Auburn7.14SEC6'10"Fr
11Paolo Banchero #5Duke6.69ACC6'10"Fr
18Justin Lewis #10Marquette6.28BE6'7"Fr
23Tyson Degenhart #2Boise St.6.13MWC6'7"Fr
27Azuolas Tubelis #10Arizona5.9P126'11"Fr
39Dillon Jones #2Weber St.5.35BSky6'6"Fr
44Sadaidriene Hall #3Stephen F. Austin5.12WAC6'5"Fr
46Aboubacar Traore #25Long Beach St.4.96BW6'5"Fr
51Jalen Wilson #10Kansas4.77B126'8"So
52Keshad Johnson #0San Diego St.4.68MWC6'7"Jr

Top Overall Power Forwards (4)

A voter would certainly be justified in placing Smith, likely the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft, as the 1st Team All-American Power Forward. However, if the entire season including early games were rated evenly, the 1st and 2nd Team All-American should really go to two Big Ten stars. Ohio State's EJ Liddell may have been the most valuable player over the course of the last two seasons, while Keegan Murray of Iowa has been able to explode now that his teammate and National Player of the Year Luka Garza has graduated.

RnkTop Freshmen Power ForwardsTeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
1Keegan Murray #15Iowa10.86B106'8"So
2EJ Liddell #32Ohio St.9.93B106'7"Jr
3Justin Bean #34Utah St.9.69MWC6'7"Sr
4Tari Eason #13LSU9.25SEC6'8"So
5David Roddy #21Colorado St.8.84MWC6'6"Jr
6Christian Braun #2Kansas7.54B126'6"Jr
7Jabari Smith #10Auburn7.14SEC6'10"Fr
8Vince Williams #10VCU6.9A106'6"Sr
9Jaime Jaquez #24UCLA6.81P126'7"Jr
10Jake LaRavia #0Wake Forest6.77ACC6'8"Jr
11Paolo Banchero #5Duke6.69ACC6'10"Fr
12Race Thompson #25Indiana6.49B106'8"Jr
13Dane Goodwin #23Notre Dame6.49ACC6'6"Jr
14Paul Atkinson #20Notre Dame6.45ACC6'9"Sr
15Timmy Allen #0Texas6.44B126'6"Sr
16Drew Timme #2Gonzaga6.41WCC6'10"Jr
17Fabian White #35Houston6.36Amer6'8"Sr
18Justin Lewis #10Marquette6.28BE6'7"Fr
19Alex Morales #2Wagner6.28NEC6'6"Sr
20Dereon Seabron #1N.C. State6.25ACC6'7"So
21Ryan Hawkins #44Creighton6.24BE6'7"Sr
22Justyn Mutts #25Virginia Tech6.17ACC6'7"Sr
23Tyson Degenhart #2Boise St.6.13MWC6'7"Fr
24Bryce Hamilton #13UNLV6.13MWC6'4"Sr
25Aher Uguak #30Loyola Chicago6.07MVC6'7"Sr
26Abu Kigab #24Boise St.5.96MWC6'7"Sr
27Azuolas Tubelis #10Arizona5.9P126'11"Fr
28Anthony Holland #25Fresno St.5.9MWC6'5"Jr
29Collin Welp #40UC Irvine5.88BW6'9"Sr
30Ron Harper #24Rutgers5.81B106'6"Sr
31Jeriah Horne #41Tulsa5.81Amer6'7"Sr
32Keshawn Justice #14Santa Clara5.76WCC6'7"Sr
33Jalen Hill #1Oklahoma5.62B126'6"Jr
34Anton Watson #22Gonzaga5.6WCC6'8"Jr
35Jayden Gardner #1Virginia5.6ACC6'6"Sr
36Noah Horchler #14Providence5.59BE6'8"Sr
37Marcus Weathers #50SMU5.49Amer6'5"Sr
38Ben Vander Plas #5Ohio5.46MAC6'8"Sr
39Dillon Jones #2Weber St.5.35BSky6'6"Fr
40Taylor Funk #33Saint Joseph's5.28A106'8"Sr
41Brady Manek #45North Carolina5.27ACC6'9"Sr
42Jalen Bridges #11West Virginia5.26B126'7"So
43Isaac Mushila #10Texas A&M Corpus Chris5.14Slnd6'5"Jr
44Sadaidriene Hall #3Stephen F. Austin5.12WAC6'5"Fr
45Jermaine Samuels #23Villanova5.08BE6'7"Sr
46Aboubacar Traore #25Long Beach St.4.96BW6'5"Fr
47Julian Champagnie #2St. John's4.93BE6'8"Jr
48Jabari Walker #12Colorado4.89P126'9"So
49Kris Murray #24Iowa4.8B106'8"So
50Jalen Adaway #33St. Bonaventure4.79A106'5"Sr


Sunday, January 30, 2022

Kentucky Star Tops Updated Hoops Top 25 Players

Not just Kentucky hype - Oscar Tshiebewe is BY FAR the most valuable player in college basketball after the Wildcats destroyed Kansas this weekend. Below this tweet is the email that went to almost all Athletic Departments the morning of January 31 outlining the numbers and then listing the rest of the top 25. Another piece on the www.valueaddbasketball.com ratings appeared on this CBS site.



We ran the updated calculations for college basketball players prior to the 1st kick-off of the two incredible Conference playoff games resulting in a Rams-Bengals Super Bowl.

(Note, if you want updates on John Pudner's non-sports organization simply click on www.takebackaction.org to sign up.)

You can click on the image below or www.valueaddbasketball.com to pull up the ratings for all 4,281 Division 1 college players, or simply sort by conference, team or player as shown in the image.

Click here for our posts on all 32 all-conference teams, or on this CBS/247 site for more information.

You can look up the following numbers for all players, but we will use the top-rated player for the explanation of what each number means.

Oscar Tshiebwe's 17 point, 14 rebound, 4 steal performance in Kentucky's dominant win at Kansas followed his 21,22,3 performance in the same categories against Mississippi State to move into the clear lead in the Value Add Basketball Player of the Year calculations.

The system calculates a players points above replacement in the same way www.kenpom.com calculates the offensive and defensive and overall ratings for college basketball teams.

Tshiebwe improves Kentucky by +6.94 on offense (same as a 106.94 team rating at www.kenpom.com) and takes -4.33 away from the Wildcats opponents on defense (same as a 95.67 for teams in www.kenpom.com as 4.33 less than 100).

The offense of 6.94 and defense of -4.33 adds up to a total 11.27 Value Add, the same as a +11.27 overall team rating for www.kenpom.com.

The Notes field includes information on the most common position played, and the weighting on that position to make the measurement a true measure of points above replacement at his position.

For example, Tshiebwe actually calculates with an even higher points above average replacement, but because most centers calculate higher than players at other possessions, his 11.27 rating was lowered from the non-position specific calculation.

Saturday, January 1, 2022

Cards for Epic Players and Team from 2021 Season to Print

We finally selected an calculated four great teams from the 2021 season to bring the total teams you can choose from to play in the Value Add Basketball Game to 128, going back in history to the inventor of the jumpshot (Kenny Sailors, Wyoming 1943 team). All four teams not only had great seasons, but each had one of the 6 most valuable basketball players in the country last year in the all-time Value Add Basketball Player ratings (click here, then put "2021" in the year search box).

Baylor 2021. The champs certainly earned a spot with their complete domination of excellent Final 4 teams Houston and Gonzaga. Jared Butler ranked as the 6th most valuable player in the country at Value Add Basketball, and www.kenpom.com had him even higher as the 4th best player.

Baylor starts out in our game rankings as the 29th best all-time team in the game, though we don't have games scheduled yet for these four new teams to see if they move up or down.


Colorado 2021. We loved watching McKinley Wright run point guard for Colorado, and ranked him as the 4th most valuable player in the country. He scored 24 points to eventual Elite 8 team USC in the Pac-12 tournament. Then we publicly picked him to destroy a red hot Georgetown team in the NCAA tournament, which he did with an amazing 13 assist performance.

While being a great team is one factor in adding new teams, we also factor in great players like him (e.g. Pistol Pete's LSU team was barely above average but we wanted him in the game). We also factor schools that have not yet had a team in the game. We passed over Final 4 teams UCLA and Houston because they already have multiple teams, and Gonzaga's other National Runner-Up from just a few years ago is in the game - so it was nice to add the first team from the state of Colorado.


Iowa 2021. The National Player of the Year Luka Garza was such an treat to watch his entire career. Even though both Value Add and www.kenpom.com ranked him 2nd in the country last year, KenPom ranked him 1st and Value Add 4th the year before to make him the rare player to be in the top 5 out of 4000+ players in consecutive years.

Even as his final game turned into a 1-on-5 against a great Oregon team in the tournament, watching him score 36 points on the way out was a fantastic sendoff.


USC 2021. As great as Garza was, we calculated 7-footer Evan Mobley was the most valuable player in the country last year. We would have still voted for Garza as the 4-year star against the freshman Mobley, but with the highest possible shot block ranking possible (21-30), a great steal guy for a 7-footer, and scoring or being fouled 65% of the time it gets to him on the 20-sided die (1-13), and an incredibly dominant rebounder at both ends (1-9 offensive and 1-8 defensive), he is the complete package. Seeing a 7-footer then dish out seven assists in a Sweet 16 win (vs. Oregon) just added to the complete picture.

His 13 rebound, MVP performance in the incredible 85-51 win against Kansas to move to the Sweet 16 was epic, and his brother Isaiah has kept it up by leading USC to a 12-0 start - the last undefeated team besides Baylor.