Saturday, December 23, 2017

Value Add Team Point Adjustments Based on Players Departing or Returning (injuries, semester transfers, etc.)

The following point differences lists how much better or worse a team should be this year than their rating based on players who missed time but are back, or in the case of negatives players who have been part of the team but are likely gone for the rest of the season.

Players like Michael Porter Jr. of Missouri are not factored because he may be out for the year but having only played a few minutes before his injury he has yet to impact Missouri's current rating. However, if he were to return a click on the overall Value Add Database shows based on his projections for this year he would be worth an additional 9.74 points per game to Missouri - the eight best total in the country.

The individual players that make up this rating are listed in this post, while the overall team rankings of the 68 teams projected to make the tournament as of December 22 and the 12 teams that just missed are listed in this post. If you see a new returning player or season ending injury or transfer, then check that post to see if they were already factor into these numbers, and if not then they should be factored the same way.

Boston College-2.35
Boston University1.33
Charleston Southern1.88
College of Charleston4.68
Florida Gulf Coast1.73
Florida St.2.18
Georgia Tech6.44
Incarnate Word1.54
Louisiana Tech-2.86
Loyola Chicago4.05
Loyola Marymount1.87
Loyola MD2.86
Mount St. Mary's1.58
New Hampshire1.10
New Orleans0.75
North Carolina5.64
North Carolina St.-1.34
Northern Iowa4.91
Northwestern St.5.39
Oklahoma St.-0.61
Portland St.3.43
Saint Joseph's-0.67
Saint Mary's2.17
San Jose St.-1.30
Santa Clara0.78
Seton Hall1.48
Southern Utah1.28
St. Bonaventure5.47
St. Francis PA3.61
St. John's3.34
Utah Valley0.66

Value Add Most Valuable Returning Players, and Most Damaging Injuries

A comparison of the preseason Projected Value Add vs. the actual Value Add of players who have only played a few games due to transfer rules or injuries reveals 61 players who should ultimately add at least 0.5 points to their team from what the current team ratings would include. On the downside, eight player injuries are reflected on the bottom names of this list because the team will now lose their Value Add. Here are the team total's in alphabetical order,

For example, Josh Okogie's Value Add to date is just 1.21 because he has only played two games due to a suspension, but if he comes back his projection for the year is actually 7.65. A bigger deal may be UNC's Cameron Johnson, who only played one game since coming back from back surgery but projects to be worth 5.64 points per game moving forward.

The list shows the player, team, the Adj figure indicates how many more points the player should be worth to the team if playing every day moving forward. Next the "Gms" and "VA5D" indicate how many games the player has played and his Value Add based on that (e.g. if a player played one of his team's 10 games and had a 0.50 Value Add, then he would actually be on pace for a 5.00 Value Add if he had played all 10 games). The next figure is the preseason Projection in the big Value Add database. After the conference, the notes from that database are included, such as if the players was a preseason 1st, 2nd or 3rd team all-conference pick.

As of the December 23 stats, each team's per game points above average is adjusted by the figures below, and then the NCAA tournament seed is projected based on that figure in this blog.

Josh OkogieGeorgia Tech6.4421.217.65ACCAll-Conf3, 6-gm susp over
Dorian PickensStanford5.7730.165.93P12
Cameron JohnsonNorth Carolina5.6410.796.43ACC2017/Pittsburgh, back from surgery
BJ TaylorUCF5.5710.436.00AmerAll-Conf2, will return inj
Jaylen AdamsSt. Bonaventure5.4753.088.55A10ConfPOY
Jalan WestNorthwestern St.5.3952.748.13SlndPG ,ConfPOY, given 6th yr
Wyatt WalkerSamford5.3020.165.46SCAll-Conf2
Jason CarterOhio5.1730.435.60MACAll-Conf1, early season inj
Jarrell BrantleyCollege of Charleston4.6810.244.92CAAAll-Conf1, early season inj
Jordon VarnadoTroy4.6351.175.80SBAll-Conf1
Rawle AlkinsArizona4.6142.467.07P12All-Conf1, returning off season inj
Isaiah BlackmonSt. Francis PA3.6130.293.90NECAll-Conf2, will return inj
Traylin FarrisPortland St.3.4350.764.19Bsky
Ben RichardsonLoyola Chicago3.4020.203.60MVC
Marcus LoVettSt. John's3.3461.835.17BE
Ryan TaylorEvansville3.0761.694.76MVCAll-Conf2
David SkaraClemson2.5420.302.84ACC2016/Valparaiso
Rodney SimeonAlabama St.2.3930.112.50SWACAll-Conf2
Adam McDermottNorthern Iowa2.3730.502.87MVC2016/North Dakota
Arkadiy MkrtychyanIdaho2.3150.652.96BSKy
Ikenna SmartBuffalo2.2230.122.34MAC
Christ KoumadjeFlorida St.2.1830.322.50ACC
Kyle ClarkSaint Mary's2.1730.322.49WCC
Andrew KosteckaLoyola MD2.1651.133.29Pat
Connor McCafferyIowa2.0930.172.26B10SF
Guillien SmithDartmouth2.0720.122.19Ivy
Petr HermanLoyola Marymount1.8710.101.97WCC
Dajour DickensProvidence1.8430.081.92BEC
Michael GilmoreFlorida Gulf Coast1.7330.111.84Asun2016/VCU
Chase JohnsonFlorida1.6441.012.65SECPF
Chris WrayMount St. Mary's1.5831.833.41NEC
Jordan WalkerSeton Hall1.4820.121.60BE
Pape DiattaGeorgia1.4230.041.46SEC
Brandon SampsonLSU1.4042.443.84SEC
Lawson SchafferAlabama1.4030.211.61SEC
Avi ToomerBucknell1.3730.161.53Pat
Destin BarnesBoston University1.3320.071.40Pat
Jordan LyonsSouthern Utah1.2830.021.30SEC
Hunter RhodesNorthern Iowa1.2840.862.14MVC
Jake KillingsworthColumbia1.2720.101.37Ivy
Luke McDonnellNorthern Iowa1.2640.411.67MVC
Lance ThomasLouisville1.2450.992.23ACCPF
Christian KeelingCharleston Southern1.2363.474.70BSthAll-Conf2
Harry FrolingMarquette1.2120.101.31BE2017/SMU
Jesse BuntingFordham1.1750.671.84A10
James BanksTexas1.1260.751.87B12
Terry MastonBaylor1.1062.833.93B12
Luke RosinskiNew Hampshire1.1030.151.25AE
Jorden KiteIncarnate Word1.0340.441.47Slnd
Victor UyaelunmoUSC0.9450.631.57B12C
Solomon HainnaEvansville0.8230.311.13MVC
Henrik JaderstenSanta Clara0.7850.561.34WCC
Jorge RosaNew Orleans0.7520.761.51Slnd
Ryan McMahonLouisville0.7441.101.84SEC
Matt StaubiLoyola MD0.7040.451.15Pat
Zach NelsonUtah Valley0.6650.821.48WAC
Jamar MartinCharleston Southern0.6540.411.06BSth
Adarius AveryLoyola Chicago0.6540.491.14MVCSF Connors State (JUCO 2017)
Malik WilliamClemson0.6150.861.47ACCPF
Jeremy CombsLSU0.5260.811.33CUSAC
Shawn JohnsonIncarnate Word0.5152.993.50Slnd
Davon DillardOklahoma St.-0.6140.24goneB12Gone
Lamarr KimbleSaint Joseph's-0.6710.07gonea10All-Conf2, 4.3 projection, but gone
Rapolas IvanauskasNorthwestern-0.8830.26goneB10
Ryan SingerSan Jose St.-1.3020.26goneMWC
Darius HicksNorth Carolina St.-1.3440.54goneACC
Kobe KingWisconsin-1.57101.57goneB10
Deontae HawkinsBoston College-2.3581.88goneACC
Jalen HarrisLouisiana Tech-2.8692.57goneCUSA

Friday, December 22, 2017

Updated Top 1% of All Basketball Players Based on

Here are the updated Value Add Basketball rankings. The top 1% of all players - the top 41 of 4,072 total players - can be found below or you can go to the complete list in the sortable database at

RnkPlayers in Top 1%TeamValue Add v5.0 Pts/GameConf
1Trae Young #11Oklahoma12.31B12
2Jevon Carter #2West Virginia11.95B12
3Jalen Brunson #1Villanova10.89BE
4Deandre Ayton #13Arizona10.84P12
5Justinian Jessup #3Boise St.10.61MWC
6Bonzie Colson #35Notre Dame10.23ACC
7Mikal Bridges #25Villanova9.81BE
8Kevin Hervey #25Texas Arlington9.76SB
9Luke Maye #32North Carolina9.75ACC
10Gary Clark #11Cincinnati9.7Amer
11Ria'n Holland #10Mercer9.65SC
12Ajdin Penava #11Marshall9.63CUSA
13Tookie Brown #4Georgia Southern9.59SB
14Jock Landale #34St. Mary's9.39WCC
15Marvin Bagley #35Duke9.23ACC
16Jordan McLaughlin #11Southern California9.22P12
17Shamorie Ponds #2St. John's8.97BE
18Jordan Murphy #3Minnesota8.96B10
19Kenrich Williams #34Texas Christian8.84B12
20Collin Sexton #2Alabama8.8SEC
21Yante Maten #1Georgia8.78SEC
22Devonte' Graham #4Kansas8.77B12
23Jeremiah Martin #3Memphis8.77Amer
24Tyus Battle #25Syracuse8.71ACC
25Fletcher Magee #3Wofford8.69SC
26Tra Holder #0Arizona St.8.67P12
27Keita Bates-Diop #33Ohio St.8.67B10
28DJ Hogg #1Texas A&M8.66SEC
29Dean Wade #32Kansas St.8.62B12
30Devon Hall #0Virginia8.55ACC
31Rob Gray #32Houston8.51Amer
32Nick King #5Middle Tennessee8.43CUSA
33Nick Weiler-Babb #1Iowa St.8.36B12
34Allonzo Trier #35Arizona8.36P12
35Keenan Evans #12Texas Tech8.33B12
36Josh Cunningham #0Dayton8.33A10
37Isaiah Wilkins #21Virginia8.31ACC
38Jeff Roberson #11Vanderbilt8.25SEC
39Zach Thomas #23Bucknell8.2Pat
40Landry Shamet #11Wichita St.8.19Amer
41Reid Travis #22Stanford8.19P12