Our CBS Sports/247: Value Add Top Trio (Duke) and Top Duo (Nova) Reach Final 4

(This is the email that went out to our sports list. Email johnp@takebackaction.org if you would like to be added to that list). 

The www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings are final for the players on 342 of 358 teams. PudnerSports.com lists the schedule for the last 16 teams in the Basketball Classic, NIT and of course NCAA, as well as listing the top 2% of the 4,258 players in the www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings.

Click on the picture below or on this link for our CBS Sports/247 Story on how the top trio in basketball (yes better than Gonzaga's according to our rankings) led Duke and Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s to the Final 4, while the top duo in the country (including Collin Gillespie, pictured) led Villanova to the Final 4.  They await the winner of the two games on CBS today, with Miami leading Kansas at the half as ACC fans hope they hold on and UNC tops Saint Peter's in the finale after that game to give the ACC three of the Final 4 teams.

Scroll further down for our final National Player of the Year and All-American teams.

The Value Add Basketball National Player of the Year battle was one of our closest ever, with Iowa's Keegan Murray nudging out Kentucky's Oscar Tshiebwe with respective Value Adds of 12.31 to 12.13. That means both team would be expected to be 12 points worse if either of those MVPs had to miss a game - so turning a 6-point win into a 6-point loss.

Our Final 1st Team All-Americans calculate as:

• 4-PF, Keegan Murray #15, Iowa, 12.31, 6'8", 90% chance at NBA.
• 5-C, Oscar Tshiebwe #34, Kentucky, 12.13, 6'9", 80% chance at NBA. Top defensive rating in country at -4.47 points erased from opponent (edges out Auburn's Kessler and the Zags Chet Holmgren).
• 1-PG, Collin Gillespie #2, Villanova, 10.35, 6'3", 31% chance at NBA.
• 2-SG, Terrell Brown #23, Washington, 10.29, 6'3".
• 1-PG, Malachi Smith #13, Chattanooga, 9.93, 6'4.

The 2nd Team All-Americans calculate as:

• 4-PF, EJ Liddell #32, Ohio St., 9.77, 6'7", 77% chance at NBA.
• 4-PF, Tari Eason #13, LSU, 9.52, 6'8", 79% chance at NBA.
• 5-C, Armando Bacot #5, North Carolina, 9.48, 6'10", 59% chance at NBA.
• 2-SG, Santiago Vescovi #25, Tennessee, 9.36, 6'3.
• 2-SG, Nijel Pack #24, Kansas St., 9.31, 6'0.

The 3rd Team All-Americans calculate as:

• 3-SF, Matt Bradley #3, San Diego St., 9.25, 6'4", 28% chance at NBA.
• 5-C, Trayce Jackson-Davis #23, Indiana, 9.23, 6'9", 78% chance at NBA.
• 1-PG, Jamaree Bouyea #1, San Francisco, 9.21, 6'2", 80% chance at NBA.
• 1-PG, Kendric Davis #3, SMU, 9.2, 6'0, 27% chance at NBA.
• 5-C, Chet Holmgren #34, Gonzaga, 9.06, 7'0, 97% chance at NBA, by far the top freshman ranking, as freshman generally make enough mistakes (bad shots, turnovers) to not rank as highly despite long-term potential to dominate.

Note, both Ochai Abdaji of Kansas and Wendell Moore of Duke are just outside the All-American list and could play themselves back into it. Abdaji rated as an All-American until having a bit of an off tournament.

For all conference teams, simply go to www.valueaddbasketball.com and then enter the conference abbreviation in the "Conf" search box.

John Pudner 404.606.3163

Best Power Forwards in College Basketball This Season

 In Value Add Basketball we consider the team's "power forward" the player who behind the team's "center" has some combination of the most defensive rebounds, blocked shots and height, but typically the fewest assists and steals. A great center or power forward will typically have even better raw numbers than a great point guard, because the guards typically need to get the ball to a power forward or center close to the basket for a closer shot.  (for a summary of the top players at each position, click here).

Because www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates how many points per game a player improves his team compared to if a typical replacement player took his place, the raw value add is adjusted by position since the replacement player would be at the same position. Therefore, once the formulas are run, and power forward's raw value add is lowered by multiplying it by 0.95 to get the result you see below and at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

In general, freshmen make so many mistakes (turnovers, bad shots etc.) the first half of the season that they do not rank nearly as high as more experienced players. However, they tend to improve more at the end of the season, so we watch for breakout freshmen first when looking at brackets. Therefore we start with the 10 most valuable freshmen centers in college basketball, starting with the most talented future NBA prospect, Auburn's Jabari Smith, who improves Auburn by 7.14 points per game - meaning there is a better than 50/50 chance Auburn would have LOST any game that they won by fewer than seven points. This calculations were run before Auburn's win against Vanderbilt Wednesday, during which Smith had his first 30-point game, so he is gaining value. 

In his case, he improves the Auburn offense by 4.44 points per game, while his defensive rating of -2.70 indicates he takes three to four points more away from the opposing team then a typical replacement power forward. Here are the most valuable 10 freshmen power forwards through games of February 15.

Rnk	Top Freshmen Power Forwards	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
7	Jabari Smith #10	Auburn	7.14	SEC	6'10"	Fr
11	Paolo Banchero #5	Duke	6.69	ACC	6'10"	Fr
18	Justin Lewis #10	Marquette	6.28	BE	6'7"	Fr
23	Tyson Degenhart #2	Boise St.	6.13	MWC	6'7"	Fr
27	Azuolas Tubelis #10	Arizona	5.9	P12	6'11"	Fr
39	Dillon Jones #2	Weber St.	5.35	BSky	6'6"	Fr
44	Sadaidriene Hall #3	Stephen F. Austin	5.12	WAC	6'5"	Fr
46	Aboubacar Traore #25	Long Beach St.	4.96	BW	6'5"	Fr
51	Jalen Wilson #10	Kansas	4.77	B12	6'8"	So
52	Keshad Johnson #0	San Diego St.	4.68	MWC	6'7"	Jr

Top Overall Power Forwards (4)

A voter would certainly be justified in placing Smith, likely the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft, as the 1st Team All-American Power Forward. However, if the entire season including early games were rated evenly, the 1st and 2nd Team All-American should really go to two Big Ten stars. Ohio State's EJ Liddell may have been the most valuable player over the course of the last two seasons, while Keegan Murray of Iowa has been able to explode now that his teammate and National Player of the Year Luka Garza has graduated.

Rnk	Top Freshmen Power Forwards	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
1	Keegan Murray #15	Iowa	10.86	B10	6'8"	So
2	EJ Liddell #32	Ohio St.	9.93	B10	6'7"	Jr
3	Justin Bean #34	Utah St.	9.69	MWC	6'7"	Sr
4	Tari Eason #13	LSU	9.25	SEC	6'8"	So
5	David Roddy #21	Colorado St.	8.84	MWC	6'6"	Jr
6	Christian Braun #2	Kansas	7.54	B12	6'6"	Jr
7	Jabari Smith #10	Auburn	7.14	SEC	6'10"	Fr
8	Vince Williams #10	VCU	6.9	A10	6'6"	Sr
9	Jaime Jaquez #24	UCLA	6.81	P12	6'7"	Jr
10	Jake LaRavia #0	Wake Forest	6.77	ACC	6'8"	Jr
11	Paolo Banchero #5	Duke	6.69	ACC	6'10"	Fr
12	Race Thompson #25	Indiana	6.49	B10	6'8"	Jr
13	Dane Goodwin #23	Notre Dame	6.49	ACC	6'6"	Jr
14	Paul Atkinson #20	Notre Dame	6.45	ACC	6'9"	Sr
15	Timmy Allen #0	Texas	6.44	B12	6'6"	Sr
16	Drew Timme #2	Gonzaga	6.41	WCC	6'10"	Jr
17	Fabian White #35	Houston	6.36	Amer	6'8"	Sr
18	Justin Lewis #10	Marquette	6.28	BE	6'7"	Fr
19	Alex Morales #2	Wagner	6.28	NEC	6'6"	Sr
20	Dereon Seabron #1	N.C. State	6.25	ACC	6'7"	So
21	Ryan Hawkins #44	Creighton	6.24	BE	6'7"	Sr
22	Justyn Mutts #25	Virginia Tech	6.17	ACC	6'7"	Sr
23	Tyson Degenhart #2	Boise St.	6.13	MWC	6'7"	Fr
24	Bryce Hamilton #13	UNLV	6.13	MWC	6'4"	Sr
25	Aher Uguak #30	Loyola Chicago	6.07	MVC	6'7"	Sr
26	Abu Kigab #24	Boise St.	5.96	MWC	6'7"	Sr
27	Azuolas Tubelis #10	Arizona	5.9	P12	6'11"	Fr
28	Anthony Holland #25	Fresno St.	5.9	MWC	6'5"	Jr
29	Collin Welp #40	UC Irvine	5.88	BW	6'9"	Sr
30	Ron Harper #24	Rutgers	5.81	B10	6'6"	Sr
31	Jeriah Horne #41	Tulsa	5.81	Amer	6'7"	Sr
32	Keshawn Justice #14	Santa Clara	5.76	WCC	6'7"	Sr
33	Jalen Hill #1	Oklahoma	5.62	B12	6'6"	Jr
34	Anton Watson #22	Gonzaga	5.6	WCC	6'8"	Jr
35	Jayden Gardner #1	Virginia	5.6	ACC	6'6"	Sr
36	Noah Horchler #14	Providence	5.59	BE	6'8"	Sr
37	Marcus Weathers #50	SMU	5.49	Amer	6'5"	Sr
38	Ben Vander Plas #5	Ohio	5.46	MAC	6'8"	Sr
39	Dillon Jones #2	Weber St.	5.35	BSky	6'6"	Fr
40	Taylor Funk #33	Saint Joseph's	5.28	A10	6'8"	Sr
41	Brady Manek #45	North Carolina	5.27	ACC	6'9"	Sr
42	Jalen Bridges #11	West Virginia	5.26	B12	6'7"	So
43	Isaac Mushila #10	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	5.14	Slnd	6'5"	Jr
44	Sadaidriene Hall #3	Stephen F. Austin	5.12	WAC	6'5"	Fr
45	Jermaine Samuels #23	Villanova	5.08	BE	6'7"	Sr
46	Aboubacar Traore #25	Long Beach St.	4.96	BW	6'5"	Fr
47	Julian Champagnie #2	St. John's	4.93	BE	6'8"	Jr
48	Jabari Walker #12	Colorado	4.89	P12	6'9"	So
49	Kris Murray #24	Iowa	4.8	B10	6'8"	So
50	Jalen Adaway #33	St. Bonaventure	4.79	A10	6'5"	Sr

Top 25 Value Add Basketball Players & Top 15 in Each Conference

The rankings for 4,000+ college Most Valuable Players in college basketball are updated at www.valueaddbasketball.com based on stats as of January 17, 2022. Value Add Basketball ranks players in a method similar to how www.kenpom.com ranks teams. The offensive rating (AdjO) minus the defensive rating (AdjD, negative is good because the player is taking points away from the other team) to calculated the overall "Value" of each player above a replacement player.

This blog links to three options to review the rankings:

1. The 25 most valuable players in the country are listed on the table below.

2. You can also go to www.valueaddbasketball.com to sort all 4000+ players by team, conference, class, etc.

3. The picture above is from this CBS 247 story on the updated rankings.

4. Finally, the links below the table take you to your choice of the 32 college basketball conferences for the notes specific to that conference and their top 15 players in the ratings.

Rnk	Top 25 All-Americans	Team	Value	Ht	Cl	AdjO	AdjD	Gm/St	Conf
1	Keegan Murray #15	Iowa	11.08	6'8"	So	8.97	-2.12	16, 16	B10
2	Justin Bean #34	Utah St.	10.58	6'7"	Sr	8.38	-2.20	16, 16	MWC
3	Oscar Tshiebwe #34	Kentucky	10.51	6'9"	Jr	6.86	-3.65	17, 17	SEC
4	Trayce Jackson-Davis #23	Indiana	10.12	6'9"	So	7.21	-2.91	16, 16	B10
5	Alex Barcello #13	BYU	10.12	6'2"	Sr	8.87	-1.25	17, 17	WCC
6	Collin Gillespie #2	Villanova	9.94	6'3"	Sr	8.30	-1.64	17, 17	BE
7	Kendric Davis #3	SMU	9.71	6'0	Sr	9.12	-0.59	17, 17	Amer
8	Armando Bacot #5	North Carolina	9.43	6'10"	Jr	6.85	-2.58	16, 16	ACC
9	Terrell Brown #23	Washington	9.30	6'3"	Sr	7.45	-1.84	15, 15	P12
10	Ochai Agbaji #30	Kansas	9.27	6'5"	Sr	8.33	-0.93	16, 16	B12
11	Tylor Perry #5	North Texas	9.22	5'11"	Jr	7.92	-1.30	13, 0	CUSA
12	Malachi Smith #13	Chattanooga	9.21	6'4"	So	8.62	-0.60	16, 16	SC
13	Posh Alexander #0	St. John's	9.21	6'0	So	5.36	-3.85	14, 13	BE
14	Orlando Robinson #10	Fresno St.	9.12	7'0	Jr	6.79	-2.34	15, 15	MWC
15	EJ Liddell #32	Ohio St.	8.93	6'7"	Jr	6.86	-2.07	15, 15	B10
16	Justin Moore #5	Villanova	8.56	6'4"	Jr	6.14	-2.42	17, 17	BE
17	Santiago Vescovi #25	Tennessee	8.52	6'3"	Jr	6.00	-2.51	16, 16	SEC
18	Jamaree Bouyea #1	San Francisco	8.43	6'2"	Sr	6.46	-1.97	17, 17	WCC
19	Christian Braun #2	Kansas	8.32	6'6"	Jr	6.20	-2.12	16, 16	B12
20	Iverson Molinar #1	Mississippi St.	8.29	6'3"	Jr	8.00	-0.30	16, 16	SEC
21	Tevin Brown #10	Murray St.	8.25	6'5"	Jr	6.33	-1.91	13, 13	OVC
22	Trent Frazier #1	Illinois	8.23	6'2"	Sr	4.61	-3.62	14, 13	B10
23	Alondes Williams #31	Wake Forest	8.21	6'5"	Sr	6.89	-1.32	18, 18	ACC
24	Tari Eason #13	LSU	8.08	6'8"	So	5.16	-2.92	16, 0	SEC
25	Hunter Dickinson #1	Michigan	7.95	7'1"	So	6.17	-1.78	13, 13	B10

Below are the links to each conference review and top 15 players, with the Player of the Year listed.

Abbr, Conference, Player of Year so far, Team

AE, America East Conference, Ryan Davis #35, Vermont

Amer, American Athletic Conference, Kendric Davis #3, SMU

ASun, ASUN Conference, Darius McGhee #2, Liberty

A10, Atlantic 10 Conference, Michael Jones #13, Davidson

ACC, Atlantic Coast Conference, Armando Bacot #5, North Carolina

B12, Big 12 Conference, Ochai Agbaji #30, Kansas

BE, Big East Conference, Collin Gillespie #2, Villanova

BSky, Big Sky Conference, Dillon Jones #2, Weber St.

BSth, Big South Conference, Ricky Clemons #1, Campbell

B10, Big Ten Conference, Keegan Murray #15, Iowa

BW, Big West Conference, Collin Welp #40, UC Irvine

CAA, Colonial Athletic Association, Cam Holden #55, Towson

CUSA, Conference USA, Tylor Perry #5, North Texas

Horz, Horizon League, Jamal Cain #1, Oakland

Ivy, Ivy League, Kino Lilly #10, Brown

MAAC, Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, George Papas #5, Monmouth

MAC, Mid American Conference, JT Shumate #32, Toledo

MEAC, Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference, Kris Bankston #30, Norfolk St.

MVC, Missouri Valley Conference, Garrett Sturtz #3, Drake

MWC, Mountain West Conference, Justin Bean #34, Utah St.

NEC, Northeast Conference, Alex Morales #2, Wagner

OVC, Ohio Valley Conference, Tevin Brown #10, Murray St.

P12, Pac 12 Conference, Terrell Brown #23, Washington

Pat, Patriot League, Cam Spencer #12, Loyola MD

SEC, Southeastern Conference, Oscar Tshiebwe #34, Kentucky

SC, Southern Conference, Malachi Smith #13, Chattanooga

Slnd, Southland Conference, Isaac Mushila #10, Texas A&M CC

SWAC, Southwestern Athletic Conference, Jayveous McKinnis #11, Jackson St.

Sum, Summit League, Baylor Scheierman #3, South Dakota St.

SB, Sun Belt Conference, Javon Franklin #13, South Alabama

WCC, West Coast Conference, Alex Barcello #13, BYU

WAC, Western Athletic Conference, Jovan Blacksher #10, Grand Canyon

Note: I added the words "Most Valuable Player" above after initially posting this because our rankings measure how valuable a player is to a team while other votes may measure the "Player of the Year." In most cases I'd say the two are similar, but when writing the Big 12 summary below it occurred to me Baylor was a perfect example of when MVP and POY can be different. James Akinjo and Kendall Brown should be considered for Player of the Year in the rugged Big 12, but I don't believe either of the are in the running for Most Valuable Player because Baylor is so deep that if either of them could not play, Baylor still has seven players on the court that can dominate. I don't believe Kansas could contend nationally if Ochai Agbaji or Christian Braun were out - if those two were out and the two Baylor players above were out for the same game, I believe Baylor would beat Kansas handily..Baylor's incredible depth actually means each player is slightly less valuable because the replacement player stepping in for them is so good.

Big Ten Conference Top 15 Men’s Basketball Players To Date

 For Immediate Release

John Pudner, 404.606.3163, johnp@takebackaction.org

Big Ten Conference Top 15 Men’s Basketball Players To Date

“Value Add Basketball is happy to provide the early list of the conference’s top 15 men’s  basketball players based on proven analytics used by NBA teams for draft prep,as well as writers at Sports Illustrated, ESPN, NBC Sports, Fox Sports,” said John Pudner, the inventor of the system.”

“Seven of 14 Big Ten teams feature a player with more than a 70 percent chance of making the NBA, and that does not even include Ohio State and the top player in the league - EJ Liddell. Liddell leads three Big Ten players in the top seven players, placing 4th, while Iowa’s Keegan Murray ranks 5th and Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis ranks 7th.”

“The All-Big Ten team would be completed by Purdue’s Jaden Ivey, the top NBA prospect at 95% and 4th in the conference in Value Add (8.58) and Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson 5th. Wisconsin’s Johnny Davis ranks as the 19th most valuable player in the country, which would make him 1st team All-Conference in all 31 other conference but leaves him as the 6th best player in the loaded Big Ten.”

You can click on this google doc with information on all 4,000+ players prior to it being posted on www.valueaddbasketball.com. You can also click here for the top 100 players in the country.

Information includes each player’s chance of making the NBA, his Value Add Rating for how many points he impacts a typical game (roughly 10 points is All-American level). The key to the table is: Rank = the player's conference ranking, Value Add = how many points he improves his team over a replacement player, Class = if he is in his 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th and final year of eligibility, Ht = his height, AdjD = how many points he takes away from opponents, and NBA = his percent chance of making the NBA.

Feel free to use any information contained in these statements as wanted, and email (johnp@takebackaction.org), or text/call 404.606.3163 for any questions or additional quotes from John Pudner.

Rank	B10	Team	Value Add	Class	Ht	AdjD	NBA
1	EJ Liddell	Ohio St.	9.88	Jr	6'7"	-3.06	49%
2	Keegan Murray	Iowa	9.61	So	6'8"	-2.65	78%
3	Trayce Jackson-Davis	Indiana	9.39	So	6'9"	-3.75	71%
4	Jaden Ivey	Purdue	8.58	So	6'4"	-2.66	95%
5	Hunter Dickinson	Michigan	8.39	So	7'1"	-3.07	26%
6	Johnny Davis	Wisconsin	8.32	So	6'5"	-2.59	86%
7	Brad Davison	Wisconsin	7.78	Sr	6'4"	-1.37	1%
8	Payton Willis	Minnesota	7.55	Sr	6'4"	-1.83	1%
9	Pete Nance	Northwestern	7.31	Sr	6'10"	-3	1%
10	Hakim Hart	Maryland	7.14	Jr	6'8"	-1.94	1%
11	Trevion Williams	Purdue	7.09	Sr	6'10"	-3.55	26%
12	Ron Harper	Rutgers	6.98	Sr	6'6"	-2.62	31%
13	Eli Brooks	Michigan	6.96	Sr	6'1"	-1.76	1%
14	Jamari Wheeler	Ohio St.	6.93	Sr	6'1"	-3.5	1%
15	Kofi Cockburn	Illinois	6.74	Jr	7'0	-2.76	40%
Def	Marcus Bingham	Michigan St.	6.69	Sr	7'0	-4.26	1%
Def	Trent Frazier	Illinois	6.74	Sr	6'2"	-3.9	1%
Def	Caleb McConnell	Rutgers	2.96	Sr	6'7"	-3.38	1%
Def	Race Thompson	Indiana	6.05	Jr	6'8"	-3.18	1%
Def	John Harrar	Penn St.	6.34	Sr	6'9"	-2.99	1%
NBA	Caleb Houstan	Michigan	3.36	Fr	6'8"	-1.56	83%
NBA	Gabe Brown	Michigan St.	6.08	Sr	6'8"	-1.14	45%
NBA	Malaki Branham	Ohio St.	0.94	Fr	6'5"	-0.86	45%
NBA	Bryce McGowens	Nebraska	3.32	Fr	6'7"	-0.79	91%
NBA	Max Christie	Michigan St.	2.97	Fr	6'6"	-0.74	90%
NBA	Frankie Collins	Michigan	0.86	Fr	6'1"	-0.73	28%