Best 25 College Basketball Teams on the Road

Look for the feature story on the CBS Sports Site Dodds on Sports that will run down the top road teams in the country.

This blog is a link for anyone who wants to look further down the list of the best road teams this year, or for the fellow stat geeks who want to read the way kenpom calculations are made - below these lists.
 

Rnk	Top 25 Road Warriors	SoS	Wins	Loss	Margin	Away kenpom
1	Kansas	20.3	3	0	15.0	35.3
2	Houston	13.3	3	0	19.0	32.3
3	UCLA	14.0	4	0	16.8	30.8
4	Alabama	19.0	3	0	9.0	28.0
5	Tennessee	12.7	2	1	14.0	26.7
6	UConn	18.8	2	2	5.3	24.0
7	Oklahoma St.	16.8	2	2	6.8	23.5
8	Rutgers	24.7	1	2	-2.3	22.3
9	Marquette	17.6	3	2	3.6	21.2
10	West Virginia	16.2	2	3	4.0	20.2
11	Providence	11.8	4	1	8.0	19.8
12	Kansas St.	16.5	2	2	3.0	19.5
13	Purdue	14.3	3	0	5.0	19.3
14	San Diego St.	10.7	3	0	8.7	19.3
15	Wisconsin	20.7	2	1	-1.3	19.3
16	Creighton	27.7	0	3	-8.3	19.3
17	Gonzaga	16.3	4	1	4.4	19.2
18	Xavier	11.5	4	0	7.3	18.8
19	Virginia	15.0	2	2	3.8	18.8
20	Missouri	18.0	2	1	0.0	18.0
21	Penn St.	18.7	1	2	-0.7	18.0
22	Seton Hall	23.0	2	4	-6.3	16.7
23	Utah St.	5.7	3	0	10.7	16.3
24	New Mexico	10.5	3	1	5.5	16.0
25	Auburn	12.3	1	2	2.7	15.0
Rnk	Others Qualified	SoS	Wins	Loss	Margin	Away kenpom
26	Indiana	24.0	1	3	-9.3	14.8
27	Memphis	16.5	1	3	-1.8	14.8
28	Iowa St.	19.3	2	1	-4.7	14.7
29	Clemson	10.5	3	1	3.8	14.3
30	Utah	10.8	3	1	3.3	14.0
31	FL Atlantic	5.4	4	1	7.6	13.0
32	Sam Houston St.	11.3	5	3	1.1	12.4
33	North Carolina	15.8	1	3	-3.5	12.3
34	Washington St.	14.9	1	7	-6.1	8.8
35	Nebraska	17.2	2	4	-9.5	7.7
36	Va Tech	10.0	0	3	-3.0	7.0
37	Kentucky	24.7	0	3	-18.7	6.0
38	Weber St.	8.9	2	5	-5.4	3.4
39	Southern Illinois	4.5	4	4	-1.4	3.1
40	Colorado St.	16.2	1	4	-13.2	3.0
41	Duke	12.3	1	2	-11.3	1.0
42	Northwestern St.	6.8	4	5	-8.9	-2.1
Rnk	Only 1 or 2 road games	SoS	Wins	Loss	Margin	Away kenpom
	Texas	20.5	2	0	5.5	26.0
	Saint Mary's	24.5	1	1	-1.0	23.5
	Ohio St.	19.5	1	1	3.5	23.0
	TCU	20.0	2	0	2.5	22.5
	Oklahoma	18.0	0	2	-0.5	17.5
	Arizona	17.5	1	1	-3.0	14.5
	Texas Tech	20.0	0	1	-6.0	14.0
	Arkansas	17.5	1	1	-8.0	9.5
	Illinois	18.0	0	2	-9.0	9.0
	Baylor	22.5	0	2	-20.5	2.0

These would be the standings (give or take a rounding error) if teams were rated using Ken Pomeroy's method but only based on the road games they played this year. Too often a team looks really dominant at home in a few early games, and then cannot handle hostile crowds. On the flip side, the teams that can handle the pressure of a hostile crowd seem more likely to handle the pressure of March Madness.

The 42 teams we did calculated fit one of two categories:

1. One of the 30 teams who were both in the overall www.kenpom.com Top 40 AND played at least three road games, or

2. One of the 12 teams who are not in www.kenpom.com top 40 but have won a road game at a Top 40 team AND have played at least three road games.

It is very unlikely any other teams we did not calculate would be in the Top 20.

There are 10 teams who are in the top 40 at www.kenpom.com but have NOT played three road games yet, so we list them at the bottom. The Texas Longhorns ranking of 26.0 in the bottom set of teams would rank them 6th in our road Top 25, but based on only two games we want to wait until they get their tough road tests in Big 12 player shortly.

How we simulated KenPom's rankings:

SoS - the strength of schedule is the average www.kenpom.com AdjME for the team's road games today rounded to the nearest number. The number on this table is then increased by +4 to give credit for the four point edge to the home team opponent, and we did include "semi-road" games but in that case only two points were added to the SoS.

For example, our #1 road team Kansas played road games at Missouri, West Virginia and Texas Tech, and those three teams average a 16.3 AdjEM at www.kenpom.com. However, because these are all true road games, we add +4 to each and the average comes out to 20.3. 

Not only did Kansas beat all three, but they averaged beating them by 15.0 points, so the kenpom system adds the SoS and the margin of the scores, and together the www.kenpom.com rating if only road games were counted would be 35.3 - making Kansas the best team in the country in this small sample.

Best Point Guards in College Basketball This Year

Note: While www.kenpom.com and www.valueaddbasketball.com analytics flagging Chattanooga's Malachi Smith as the 2nd best small forward in the country, we have been informed that in fact he plays point guard - where he would also rank as the 2nd best player at the country barely behind Villanova's Collin Gillespie. We will update for his next post, but we would still consider Smith a 2nd Team All-American at this point - just at a different position. (The analytics are thrown off because he grabs so many defensive rebounds that he appears to be a small forward rather than a point guard statistically).

In Value Add Basketball we consider the team's "point guard" the player who typically has the most  assists, and typically is the shortest player on the floor and with fewer defensive rebounds, blocked shots and less height. A point guard has the toughest job because he is the player who needs to handle it all the way down the court and create his own shots or create shots for others by working the ball inside to a center or power forward, who will thus typically have even better raw numbers than a great point guard. (for a summary of the top players at each position, click here).

Because www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates how many points per game a player improves his team compared to if a typical replacement player took his place, the raw value add is adjusted by position since the replacement player would be at the same position. Therefore, once the formulas are run, and power guard's raw value add is increased by multiplying it by 1.05 to get the result you see below and at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

In general, freshmen guards in particular make so many mistakes (turnovers, bad shots etc.) the first half of the season that they do not rank nearly as high as more experienced guards. Nowhere is this more true than at point guard.

However, they tend to improve more at the end of the season, so we watch for breakout freshmen first when looking at brackets. Therefore we start with the 10 most valuable freshmen pointing guards in college basketball, and perhaps the most incredible finding in these systems is that the top two freshman point guard in all of college basketball both play for Tennessee. Zakai Zeigler plays the point whenever he is in the game based on analytics - and when he sits Kennedy Chandler moves from shooting guard to point guard and is even better. 

Chandler was unbelievable in the recent double digit win against Kentucky, scoring 17 points despite taking only 9 shots, and dishing out 6 assists without a single turnover. Zeigler has four steals in that game, and scored 14 points only taking eight shots. With the importance of guards able to handle the ball in March Madness, this duo could be scary good in the tournament.

Rnk	Top 10 Freshman PG	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
23	Kennedy Chandler #1	Tennessee	6.08	SEC	6'0	Fr
52	Zakai Zeigler #5	Tennessee	4.92	SEC	5'9"	Fr
58	Malachi Smith #11	Dayton	4.71	A10	6'0	Fr
60	Jalen Cook #3	Tulane	4.54	Amer	6'0	Fr
66	Jao Ituka #10	Marist	4.22	MAAC	6'1"	Fr
94	Kino Lilly #10	Brown	3.57	Ivy	6'0	Fr
113	Kerr Kriisa #25	Arizona	3.19	P12	6'3"	Fr
116	Ajay Mitchell #13	UC Santa Barbara	3.14	BW	6'4"	Fr
134	Jeremiah Williams #25	Temple	2.81	Amer	6'5"	Fr
136	Walter Clayton #13	Iona	2.77	MAAC	6'2"	Fr

If anyone had any doubts about Collin Gillespie being the top point guard in the country, they should watch how he has brought Villanova surging back into the top 10 - and the difference it made last year when he was injured for March Madness. It is a very close battle for 2nd Team All-American Point Guard between Mississippi State's Iverson Molinar and SMU's Kendric Davis. 

It may look strange to have Wyoming's super star Hunter Maldonado listed at point guard despite standing 6-foot-7, but he is in the top half percent of all players in assist rate - dishing and making everyone else score for a team that appears to be heading to March Madness.

 

Rnk	Top Point Guards (1)	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
1	Collin Gillespie #2	Villanova	9.33	BE	6'3"	Sr
2	Iverson Molinar #1	Mississippi St.	8.68	SEC	6'3"	Jr
3	Kendric Davis #3	SMU	8.54	Amer	6'0	Sr
4	Hunter Maldonado #24	Wyoming	8.08	MWC	6'7"	Sr
5	Jamaree Bouyea #1	San Francisco	8.06	WCC	6'2"	Sr
6	Payton Willis #0	Minnesota	7.92	B10	6'4"	Sr
7	Tylor Perry #5	North Texas	7.77	CUSA	5'11"	Jr
8	Trent Frazier #1	Illinois	7.77	B10	6'2"	Sr
9	Baylor Scheierman #3	South Dakota St.	7.45	Sum	6'6"	So
10	Will Richardson #0	Oregon	7.44	P12	6'5"	Sr
11	RJ Cole #2	Connecticut	7.35	BE	6'1"	Sr
12	Mark Sears #1	Ohio	6.99	MAC	6'1"	So
13	Tyger Campbell #10	UCLA	6.92	P12	5'11"	Jr
14	Jacob Gilyard #0	Richmond	6.71	A10	5'9"	Sr
15	Isaiah Stevens #4	Colorado St.	6.69	MWC	6'0	Jr
16	Jalen Williams #24	Santa Clara	6.59	WCC	6'6"	Jr
17	Foster Loyer #0	Davidson	6.55	A10	6'0	Jr
18	Jamari Wheeler #55	Ohio St.	6.53	B10	6'1"	Sr
19	Andrew Nembhard #3	Gonzaga	6.49	WCC	6'5"	Sr
20	Michael Flowers #12	Washington St.	6.41	P12	6'1"	Sr
21	Sincere Carry #3	Kent St.	6.3	MAC	6'1"	Jr
22	Jordan Goldwire #0	Oklahoma	6.19	B12	6'3"	Sr
23	Kennedy Chandler #1	Tennessee	6.08	SEC	6'0	Fr
24	Jovan Blacksher #10	Grand Canyon	6.07	WAC	5'11"	Jr
25	Javon Freeman-Liberty #4	DePaul	6.06	BE	6'4"	Sr
26	RJ Davis #4	North Carolina	5.93	ACC	6'0	So
27	Wendell Green #1	Auburn	5.83	SEC	5'11"	So
28	Scotty Pippen #2	Vanderbilt	5.74	SEC	6'3"	Jr
29	Ben Shungu #24	Vermont	5.74	AE	6'2"	Sr
30	Michael Devoe #0	Georgia Tech	5.65	ACC	6'5"	Sr
31	Markquis Nowell #1	Kansas St.	5.61	B12	5'8"	Jr
32	Jordan Walker #10	UAB	5.57	CUSA	5'11"	Jr
33	Kevion Nolan #3	Jacksonville	5.55	ASun	6'2"	Jr
34	Darius McGhee #2	Liberty	5.5	ASun	5'9"	Sr
35	Souley Boum #0	UTEP	5.49	CUSA	6'3"	Jr
36	Jamal Shead #1	Houston	5.41	Amer	6'1"	So
37	James Akinjo #11	Baylor	5.41	B12	6'1"	Sr
38	Marcus Domask #1	Southern Illinois	5.38	MVC	6'6"	Jr
39	Tristen Newton #2	East Carolina	5.27	Amer	6'5"	So
40	Marcus Shaver #10	Boise St.	5.2	MWC	6'2"	Sr
41	Justice Hill #14	Murray St.	5.18	OVC	6'0	So
42	Bryce Aiken #1	Seton Hall	5.12	BE	6'0	Sr
43	Max Abmas #3	Oral Roberts	5.09	Sum	6'0	Jr
44	Jared Bynum #4	Providence	5.06	BE	5'10"	Jr
45	Darrion Trammell #2	Seattle	5.05	WAC	5'10"	So
46	Noah Kirkwood #10	Harvard	5.01	Ivy	6'7"	Sr
47	Braden Norris #4	Loyola Chicago	4.99	MVC	6'0	Jr
48	AJ Green #4	Northern Iowa	4.98	MVC	6'4"	Jr
49	KD Johnson #0	Auburn	4.97	SEC	6'0	So
50	Jahmir Young #1	Charlotte	4.96	CUSA	6'1"	Jr

Top Shooting Guards in College Basketball This Season

 In Value Add Basketball we consider the team's "shooting guard" the player who behind only the team's point guard in assists, but compared to the other three players on the court typically has fewer defensive rebounds, blocked shots and less height. A great center or power forward will typically have even better raw numbers than a great point guard, because the guards typically need to get the ball to a power forward or center close to the basket for a closer shot.  (for a summary of the top players at each position, click here).

Because www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates how many points per game a player improves his team compared to if a typical replacement player took his place, the raw value add is adjusted by position since the replacement player would be at the same position. Therefore, once the formulas are run, and shooting guard's raw value add is increased by multiplying it by 1.10 to get the result you see below and at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

In general, freshmen guards in particular make so many mistakes (turnovers, bad shots etc.) the first half of the season that they do not rank nearly as high as more experienced guards. However, they tend to improve more at the end of the season, so we watch for breakout freshmen first when looking at brackets. Therefore we start with the 10 most valuable freshmen shooting guards in college basketball, starting with the best freshman shooting guard TyTy Washington of Kentucky. His value add of 6.34 indicates there is a better than 50/50 chance Kentucky would have LOST any game that they won by fewer than seven points. 

In his case, he improves the Kentucky's offense by 4.90 points per game, while his defensive rating of -1.44 indicates he takes three to four points more away from the opposing team then a typical replacement shooting guard. Here are the most valuable 10 freshmen power forwards through games of February 15. Arizona's Dalen Terry is one of three Arizona players we would name to our All-American freshmen team - and his defense of -2.35 is by far the best for any shooting guard.

Rnk	Top Freshmen SG	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
15	TyTy Washington #3	Kentucky	6.34	SEC	6'3"	Fr
20	Dalen Terry #4	Arizona	5.65	P12	6'7"	Fr
38	Trevor Keels #1	Duke	4.72	ACC	6'4"	Fr
50	Terquavion Smith #0	N.C. State	4.35	ACC	6'4"	Fr
60	Steele Venters #2	Eastern Washington	4.18	BSky	6'7"	Fr
62	Reyne Smith #2	Charleston	4.06	CAA	6'2"	Fr
65	Nate Heise #0	Northern Iowa	4.02	MVC	6'4"	Fr
67	Malaki Branham #22	Ohio St.	4	B10	6'5"	Fr
71	Brandon Murray #0	LSU	3.95	SEC	6'5"	Fr
73	JD Davison #3	Alabama	3.91	SEC	6'3"	Fr

Top overall SG

One reason we love running these numbers is to find truly elite players who will not be noticed because their team either does not get enough TV coverage or is just not winning enough games to draw attention. The biggest case this year comes from teh 13-10 Washington in the Pac-12. We calculte that Washington would be 4-19 instead of 13-10 if Terrell Brown were not on the team, and for us that makes him the truly deserving 1st team All-American shooting guard who will not get any voters for it.

The race for 2nd and 3rd team All-American shooting buard is much closer.  TyTy Washington should be considered because it is truly unusual for a freshman guard to be anywhere near this high - but K-State, St. John's, BYU, Tennessee and the player who may have improved his team the most this year from last year - Alondes Williams of Wake Forest.

 

Rnk	Top Shooting Guards (2)	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
1	Terrell Brown #23	Washington	10.42	P12	6'3"	Sr
2	Nijel Pack #24	Kansas St.	9.39	B12	6'0	So
3	Posh Alexander #0	St. John's	8.8	BE	6'0	So
4	Alex Barcello #13	BYU	8.69	WCC	6'2"	Sr
5	Santiago Vescovi #25	Tennessee	8.65	SEC	6'3"	Jr
6	Alondes Williams #31	Wake Forest	8.15	ACC	6'5"	Sr
7	Garrett Sturtz #3	Drake	7.66	MVC	6'3"	Sr
8	Justin Moore #5	Villanova	7.53	BE	6'4"	Jr
9	Jaden Ivey #23	Purdue	7.05	B10	6'4"	So
10	Brad Davison #34	Wisconsin	6.97	B10	6'4"	Sr
11	Ryan Rollins #5	Toledo	6.72	MAC	6'4"	So
12	JD Notae #1	Arkansas	6.66	SEC	6'2"	Sr
13	Jaden Shackelford #5	Alabama	6.63	SEC	6'3"	Jr
14	Josh Jefferson #11	Middle Tennessee	6.39	CUSA	6'2"	Sr
15	TyTy Washington #3	Kentucky	6.34	SEC	6'3"	Fr
16	Eli Brooks #55	Michigan	6.17	B10	6'1"	Sr
17	Umoja Gibson #2	Oklahoma	6	B12	6'1"	Sr
18	Alfonso Plummer #11	Illinois	5.73	B10	6'1"	Sr
19	Hunter Cattoor #0	Virginia Tech	5.71	ACC	6'3"	Jr
20	Dalen Terry #4	Arizona	5.65	P12	6'7"	Fr
21	Reece Beekman #2	Virginia	5.62	ACC	6'3"	So
22	Buddy Boeheim #35	Syracuse	5.56	ACC	6'6"	Sr
23	Adam Flagler #10	Baylor	5.5	B12	6'3"	Jr
24	Michael Jones #13	Davidson	5.49	A10	6'5"	Jr
25	Grayson Murphy #2	Belmont	5.46	OVC	6'3"	Sr
26	Amorie Archibald #3	Louisiana Tech	5.41	CUSA	6'3"	Sr
27	Gibson Jimerson #24	Saint Louis	5.4	A10	6'5"	Fr
28	Mason Archambault #11	South Dakota	5.25	Sum	6'0	Sr
29	Sean McNeil #22	West Virginia	5.23	B12	6'3"	Sr
30	Rasir Bolton #45	Gonzaga	5.11	WCC	6'3"	Sr
31	Jabari Rice #10	New Mexico St.	5.05	WAC	6'4"	Jr
32	D'Moi Hodge #55	Cleveland St.	5.03	Horz	6'4"	Sr
33	Spencer Jones #14	Stanford	4.96	P12	6'7"	Jr
34	James Reese V #0	South Carolina	4.93	SEC	6'4"	Sr
35	Rudi Williams #3	Coastal Carolina	4.92	SB	6'2"	Sr
36	Desmond Cambridge #4	Nevada	4.88	MWC	6'4"	Sr
37	Cameron Tyson #5	Seattle	4.87	WAC	6'2"	So
38	Trevor Keels #1	Duke	4.72	ACC	6'4"	Fr
39	Davion Warren #2	Texas Tech	4.7	B12	6'6"	Sr
40	CJ Fleming #25	Bellarmine	4.7	ASun	6'0	Sr
41	Joe Bryant #4	Norfolk St.	4.62	MEAC	6'1"	Sr
42	Logan Johnson #0	Saint Mary's	4.54	WCC	6'2"	Sr
43	Demaree King #1	Jacksonville St.	4.52	ASun	6'0	Jr
44	Caleb Grill #2	Iowa St.	4.42	B12	6'3"	Jr
45	Courtney Ramey #3	Texas	4.41	B12	6'3"	Sr
46	Alex Hunter #10	Furman	4.41	SC	5'11"	Sr
47	Isaiah Wong #2	Miami FL	4.4	ACC	6'3"	So
48	Michael Forrest #11	Florida Atlantic	4.37	CUSA	6'1"	Jr
49	Tyler Harris #14	Memphis	4.36	Amer	5'9"	Sr
50	Terquavion Smith #0	N.C. State	4.35	ACC	6'4"	Fr