Thursday, April 18, 2024

Biggest Upsets and Blowouts by All-Time Great Men's and Women's Teams

Since inventing the Value Add Basketball Game five years ago, we have played 294 games between all-time great teams, and the biggest upsets to date have been by Auburn 2019, Stephen Curry’s Davidson, DePaul 1980 men and two by the Notre Dame 2019 women. We just finished double checking and updating all of our men's and women's scores.

The favorite in a given game can be calculated by subtracting one team’s “rating,” which appears above their player cards, from the other team’s rating. If one team is playing at home – meaning they are allowed to change any roll of 36 to 66 (to create a foul on the home team that was not called) or a 66 to 36 (to create a bad call against a visiting player) then adjust another three points in favor of the home team.

So far we have had 21 games played between teams that had equal ratings and therefore there was no favorite. In the other games:

Teams favored by 18 points or more in the game are a perfect 16-0. The biggest point spread to date was Sue Bird’s UConn 2002 tram

Biggest Favorites and Blowouts So Far

The biggest favorites so far in our game were by UConn men’s and women’s teams.

Sue Bird’s 2002 UConn team was a 26-point favorite against Elena Delle Donne’s Delaware, and after Delaware led at halftime UConn pulled away from a 75-46 win to actually cover.

UConn Men’s 2023 team was the only bigger favorite every in our game, as a 29-point favorite against the Saint Peter’s 2022 team that made the Elite 8 despite not being in the top 100 teams in www.kenpom.com. UConn made that hold up with a 77-39 win, a 38-point win that was the third biggest margin we’ve ever had in our game.

Houston 2021 beat Princeton 2023 by an 102-50 score for the biggest at 52-points, and UConn’s 2016 with perhaps the greatest player ever, Maya Moore, defeated the Long Beach State 1987 team 98-53 for a 45-point margin.

Biggest upsets

Auburn 2019 with Chuma Okeke was a 17-point underdog against Kentucky 2012 with Anthony Davis, but pulled off the 75-68 upset. While this was an upset, Auburn barely lost in the Final 4 on a tough call, and that was after Okeke had a terrible injury during Auburn’s blowout win against the 2019 Kentucky win. They were not as good as the 34-1 Kentucky 2012 team, but they were by far the best team at the end of the 2019 season before the injury. 

Davidson 2008 with Stephen Curry was a 16-point underdog against 2-time champion Florida 2006 with Joakim Noah and a host of NBA stars, but Curry went crazy in a 68-52 win. This game was before we invented the 20th century teams, so we had 21st century teams in conferences playing home and home series, and Florida had already beaten Davidson before this rematch.

DePaul 1980 with Mark Aguirre and Terry Cummings was a 16-point underdog against UCLA 1967 with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, but stunned them 86-71. We thought Kareem’s team might have been the best team ever, but DePaul got up and down the court in the win. While DePaul never made the big run, they often seemed like the top team in the country during the regular season  but just couldn’t seem to avoid the early upset in March.

While we haven’t played as many women’s games since the stats were not filled in until a few years later, the two biggest upsets in a couple of dozen games were both by Notre Dame 2018 with Arike Ogunbowales, who made our first Women’s Final Four as our 11-seed.

We played our opening rounds of the women’s conference at home sites of the better seed, meaning the home team can always change a roll of 66 to 36 or vice versa, to get a few extra calls a game (either missing a foul on the home team or having a bad call against a road player. This changes about three calls a game for about a 3-point edge.

Notre Dame went on the road to Texas A&M as a 7-point underdog with the A&M home court advantage and overcame the bad calls in a 76-69 win. After another win, they advanced to the Final Four.

In the Final Four, Notre Dame was an even bigger 10-point underdog against Maya Moore and UConn 2016, which we consider one of the three best teams in the game.  The Irish pulled off a shocker 76-62.

Wednesday, April 17, 2024

UNC's McAdoo Survives Upset Scare from Wilkens and Providence

The last all-time top 100 men's team to play a Value Add Basketball Game was #38 UNC, led by all time great center Bob McAdoo with point guard and future great coach George Karl Because their team rating is +4, and Lenny Wilkens 1960 Providence is a -9, UNC was a +13 point favorite, and so far teams favored by 10 to 15 points in Value Add Basketball Games have won 78% of the time.
 
Favored by                                     Wins     Losses      Win%
Even - Ratings the Same19 50%
Favored 1-2 points272057%
Favored 3-5 points503063%
Favored 6-9 points462268%
Favored 10-15 points25778%
Favored 16 points or more24389%
Total Games to Date191 

However, for most of the game Wilkens looked like he was going to lead only the 11th double digit upset winner.  With 19 possessions left he stole the ball from the other all-time great on the court, McAdoo, and hit a 3-pointer on the other end to give the 1960 Friars a 49-44 lead. a few possessions later, he had a traditional 3-point play to make it 57-50.

However, McAdoo took over down the stretch as both greats topped 30 points, and UNC pulled away late for an 84-73 win. UNC 1972 came into the game without having played, but ranked 38th of all time in our game. There was no one else ranked higher than 143rd who had not played a game.

Here is the box score.
 
Pos       Providence 1960 Starters      Pts  3pt  2pt  FTAtt    RebStlBlkFl       Actual Season
1-PGJohn Egan11132323036'0, 14.2 ppg
2-SGLenny Wilkens31111674402#75 best, 6'1
3-SFTom Moynahan4020020016'1, 7 ppg
4-PFDick Whelan5110020116'3, 8.3 ppg
5-CJames Hadnot7023450146'10, 14.8 ppg
PosBench VisitorsPts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlActual Season
1-PGDenny Guimares2010010016'0, 2.6 ppg
2-SGRichard Holtzheimer2010010016'3, 4.8 ppg
3-SFJohn Woods2010031016'4, 6 ppg
4-PFRobert Siembida5021210016'4, 3.6 ppg
5-CRichard Leonard4020020016'4, 1.8 ppg
 16 Turnovers733261216238216 
            
            
PosUNC 1972 StartersPts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFl 
1-PGGeorge Karl7023532346'3, 11.7 ppg
2-SGDennis Wuycik16153321056'6, 18 ppg
3-SFBill Chamberlain6030080016'6, 10.9 ppg
4-PFBobby Jones9122260016'9, 10.2 ppg
5-CBob McAdoo32014456143#54 best, 6'9
PosBench HomePts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlActual Season
1-PGKim Huband6030010016'5, 5.6 ppg
2-SGSteve Previs2010011016'3, 5.3 ppg
3-SFBill Chambers2010010016'4, 2.4 ppg
4-PFDonn Johnston2010010026'8, 2.5 ppg
5-CCraig Corson2010010016'9, 1.5 ppg
 13 Turnovers842331215305720

Candace Parker Faces Tougher Georgia Team Than we Realized



One reason we try to play every team in the Value Add Basketball Game at least once is to catch mistakes, and we just caught one on the Georgia 2013 team.

We had printed "Layup 51-44" on the Georgia cards which led to them carrying a rating of -15 or the worst of 56 all-time great women's team. That was a miscalculation - the cards have been corrected to show their 51-52 Lay-Up range and overall that gives them an expected score against other great teams of a narrow 68-69 loss. 

We had already scheduled them against best team yet to play - Candace Parker and the Tennessee 2007 team - which we believe to be one of the best five all-time teams in our game.

The Vols will still be a 13-point favorite - but not a 27-point favorite from before we caught the mistake.

Georgia upset #8 Kentucky on the road late in the season. They then had to play Pac-12 teams on the West Coast, stunning #4 Stanford in the Sweet 16 to advance to the Elite 8, where they fell in overtime to #6 Cal. Obviously Tennessee will still be favored, having won the first of two consecutive national titles with dominant 34-3 and 36-2 records for a combined 70-5 mark despite playing in the tough SEC.

We will add the results once the game is complete.

Top 25 All-Time Men's and Women's Teams in Value Add Game

With the college basketball season in the rearview mirror, here is the update on the Top 25 men's and Top 25 women's teams in the Value Add Basketball Game through games we've played so far. If you click on the links above, you will see our record of every game we have played on one google sheet, and another google sheet ranking all 234 men's teams and 56 women's teams beyond just the top 25 listed below. 

The "pre" to the left of each men's and women's team indicates where we ranked the team based purely on how good their playing cards are.

The "rnk" to the left of that figure is the team's ranking updated based on games we play.

 
Rnk   Pre    Men's Top 25              Year                         Rnk   Pre   Women's Top 25      Yr
11UCLA1972 11Tennessee1998
211Ohio St.1960 21Connecticut2002
35Duke2001 36Louisiana Tech1982
420Kansas1997 45Tennessee2007
510Indiana1976 51Connecticut2016
69Connecticut2023 67Connecticut1995
763Kansas2008 78South Carolina2024
816Houston1968 815Notre Dame2018
915North Carolina2005 94Connecticut2010
104Kentucky1996 1013USC1983
1129Arkansas1994 1110Stanford2021
1213North Carolina1982 1211Baylor2012
1328San Francisco1956 1319Iowa2024
1462Baylor2021 149Baylor2019
1527Villanova2018 1512Texas A&M2011
1621Connecticut1996 1620Notre Dame2001
1726Gonzaga2017 1721Virginia1991
1861Connecticut2004 1816Oregon2019
198Duke1992 1917Mississippi State2018
2041Louisville2013 2022Maryland2006
217Cincinnati1960 2123Ohio State1993
2283Houston2021 2224LSU2023
232Kentucky2012 2318Old Dominion1980
2440Virginia2019 2414South Carolina2017
2514North Carolina St.1974 2530Duke2006
373UCLA1967 4925Long Beach State1987
386UNLV1991     
6112Florida2006     
7217North Carolina1998     
4618Michigan1989     
3219Michigan1993     
8722Kansas1957     
2923Purdue2024     
2824Michigan St.1979     
2725Houston1983    

Note UConn has 7 teams between the men and women - more than twice any other school - so Danny Hurley appears to be right about this being UConn's century.

The formula we use to update from our "pre" rating  formula is similar to the  www.kenpom.com except we give an extra 5 points for winning or subtract 5 points for losing.

Note we do not have this year's UConn national champs since we don't let a school have more than one team every five years or a

So, and their 2023 champs are No. 6 all-time using our ranking system. If we did not space out teams from one school, then the Tennessee and UConn women would have many more teams, as would the UCLA men.

The biggest women's upset to date was Notre Dame 2018 upsetting Maya Moore and UConn 2016. As you can see, that UConn team dropped from from a 3-way tie for No. 1 to 5th place, while Notre Dame improved from 15th place to 8th place. We track all games and list the ratings with additional information (such as conference rank) for all 56 women's teams here. Long Beach State is the 25th best team based on their player cards, but before UConn lost to Notre Dame they defeated Long Beach State 88-53, dropping Long Beach State from 25th to 49th.

The "Rnk' (Rank) number is where we ranked the team right now 

Women's Greatest 25 Teams in VABG (see men below)
 
Rnk  Pre  School                    Yr      WL     Score  Allow  Player(s)
11Tennessee19984076.364.0Tamika CatchingsChamique Holdsclaw
21Connecticut20021075.046.0Sue BirdDiana Taurasi
36Louisiana Tech19823176.067.5Pam Kelly
45Tennessee200700  Candace Parker
51Connecticut20161180.064.5Maya Moore
67Connecticut199500  Nykesha SalesRebecca Lobo
78South Carolina202400  Kamilla Cardoso
815Notre Dame20183176.372.8Arike Ogunbowales
94Connecticut20102173.373.3Breanna Stewart
1013USC19832172.063.3Cheryl Miller
1110Stanford20211179.072.5Kiana Williams
1211Baylor20121173.577.0Kalani Brown
1319Iowa20241084.064.0Caitlin Clark
149Baylor20191174.073.0Brittney Griner
1512Texas A&M20110169.076.0Danielle Adams
1620Notre Dame200100  Ruth Riley
1721Virginia199100  Dawn Staley
1816Oregon20190181.084.0Sabrina Ionescu
1917Mississippi State20180158.074.0Victoria Vivans
2022Maryland200600  Crystal Langhorne
2123Ohio State199300  Katie Smith
2224LSU202300  Angel Reese
2318Old Dominion19800155.080.0Nancy Lieberman
2414South Carolina20171169.073.5A'ja Wilson
2530Duke20060166.075.0Alison Bales
4925Long Beach State19870153.098.0Cindy Brown

Men's Greatest 25 Teams in VABG

We have a lot more games in with the men, as the stats were available when we invented it in 2019, but the stats have just become available for many of the great women.

The biggest upset in this game was the 1980 DePaul team stunning Kareem and UCLA, which has dropped from No. 3 to No. 37 of the 234 teams. 


Rnk Pre  School                    Year  WL    ScoreAllow  Player(s)
11UCLA19726072.062.0Bill Walton #64
211Ohio St.19602184.076.3Jerry Lucas #72, John Havlicek #29
35Duke20013178.372.5Shane Battier
420Kansas19975076.862.4Paul Pierce #50
510Indiana19763171.359.8Scott May
69Connecticut20232078.558.0Adama Sanogo
763Kansas20085174.756.0Mario Chalmers
816Houston19683173.063.8Elvin Hayes #41
915North Carolina20053272.264.4Sean May
104Kentucky19962172.069.3Antoine Walker
1129Arkansas19941275.370.3Corliss Williamson
1213North Carolina19825168.865.0Michael Jordan #1, James Worthy #59
1328San Francisco19563173.063.5Bill Russell #4
1462Baylor20212286.078.5Jared Butler
1527Villanova20187279.470.3Mikal Bridges
1621Connecticut19961090.068.0Ray Allen #52
1726Gonzaga20173369.863.0Nigel Williams-Goss
1861Connecticut20045274.766.0Ben Gordon
198Duke19921273.770.3Christian Laettner
2041Louisville20132174.066.3Russ Smith
217Cincinnati19601272.378.0Oscar Robertson #12
2283Houston202110102.050.0Quentin Grimes
232Kentucky20124272.265.7Anthony Davis #53
2440Virginia20194172.665.4Kyle Guy
2514North Carolina St.19742172.072.7David Thompson
2725Houston19832170.765.0Hakeem Olajuwon #11, Clyde Drexler #43
2824Michigan St.19792170.362.7Magic Johnson #5
2923Purdue202410 74.0 53.0Zach Edey
3219Michigan19931062.055.0Chris Webber #65
373UCLA19672183.087.0Kareem Abdul-Jabbar #3
386UNLV19911272.776.3Larry Johnson
4618Michigan19890270.578.5Glen Rice
6112Florida20065374.472.0Joakim Noah
7217North Carolina19982180.783.7Vince Carter
8722Kansas19573267.871.4Wilt Chamberlain #6

Monday, April 15, 2024

Caitlin Clark Value Add Debut vs. Penn State 2012

Scroll past the preview for the box score and game results at the bottom after this preview - as Alex Bentley kept Penn State close by harassing Caitlin Clark and her Iowa teammates for 20 turnovers ... (continued at bottom)

 We celebrated the No. 1 pick in the WNBA draft Caitlin Clark, ranked as the 8th greatest college player ever in the Value Add Basketball Game, by having her debut in a game. For the first time since playing LSU with Pete Maravich, we have three dimes on one player to indicate she not only gets the ball on the position roll if 1, but also in the 8-sided die roll of 6, 7 and 8.


Note in the top of the scoresheet Iowa's layup range of 51-62 with Penn State's below average +2 defense actually takes Iowa 2 above the max 51-66 range. Therefore even though Penn State's range of 51-52 and Iowa's very weak +7 defense would make Penn State's range 51-63 on the table we lower that by 2 to match taking Iowa down to 51-66 to get a 51-61 in a defense optional for the game.


Penn State's star Maggie Lucas has one of the three dimes meaning she gets the ball in a 3 or 7 when you go left to right with the players in the game at the outset (in the game we play reserves first to finish the game with the top row of starters). 

The tip off - roll the dice at 11:05 pm Central, and the game concluded at 11:34 for a very fast 29 minutes play time. Granted I invented the game so know it well, and this game actually had only 7 fouls (6 on Iowa and 1 on Penn State) to keep it moving fast, but the game is designed to let you play i about 45 minutes once you are used to it.

With 16 possessions left, 14-point underdog Penn State 2012 was within 50-57. Caitlin Clark had been held to 14 points, with only super sub Molly Davis keeping Iowa ahead, and Penn State's Alex Bentley had seven steals including a few off Clark. In fact, if Penn State had converted HALF of those seven steals into baskets they would have led at that point.

However, on the next play Sydney Affolter drew a foul and hit a free throw to make it 58-50. She missed the second free throw but the rebound chart came up Offensive Small Forward. On free throws only the offensive power forward or center can try for a rebound on the chart (other offensive positions automatically go to the defensive center. UNLESS one of those two are shooting the free throws, which in this case was the case since at the time Affolter was the 4th coin from left to right in the game - and that made small forward Kate Martin and with her Defense Rebound range of 1-6, the 6-sided die rolls are all in her range so she grabbed the rebound and scored to make it 60-50. 

Bentley scored at the other end to keep her hot game going and cut it to single digits (52-60), but Clark hit a 3-pointer at the other end to make it 63-52 and Penn State could never get it back to single digits. Clark exploded the rest of the way and hit her average 32 points exactly in a 84-64 win to advance.

Pos     Penn St. 2012           Pts  3pt  2pt  FT Att Reb Stl  Blk  Fl    Season Actual
1-PGAlex Bentley111402170112 pts, 6'0
2-SGZhaque Gray80324110111.9 pts, 6'1
3-SFMaggie Lucas91222300110.6 pts, 6'4
4-PFMia Nickson6030050026.7 pts, 6'6
5-CNikki Greene140544312124.9 pts, 7'4
1-PGGizelle Studevent2010010010.7 pts, 6'7
2-SGAriel Edwards6030010013.4 pts, 6'5
3-SFMarisa Wolfe2010010013.3 pts, 6'7
4-PFTori Waldner2010010016.4 pts, 6'9
5-CTalia East4020010012.2 pts, 6'10
 15 Turnovers64225812189211 
            
PosIowa 2024Pts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlSeason Actual
1-PGCaitlin Clark324100141026'0, 32.0 Pts
2-SGKate Martin10050043116'0, 13.1 Pts
3-SFSydney Affolter5021240025'11,8.3 Pts
4-PFGabbie Marshall5110030015'9,6.1 Pts
5-CHannah Stuelke6030071136'2,13.8 Pts
1-PGMolly Davis16242240035'7, 6.1 Pts
2-SGTaylor McCabe2010010015'9,3.5 Pts
3-SFKylie Feuerbach4020010016'0, 2.6 Pts
4-PFAddison O'Grady2010010016'4,4.1 Pts
5-CSharon Goodman2010010016'3,4.5 Pts
 20 Turnovers8473035305216

As WNBA Draft Kicks Off, Schedule Released of 36 All-Time Great College Women's Team

With the 36 teams added to the Value Add Basketball Game, including every team on which one of our top 40 players of all time played, we scheduled out all the teams we have not used.  

The original 20 teams played in a tournament whose bracket is included at the bottom of the blog, eventually won by Pat Summitt's 1998 Tennessee team.

As the WNBA draft kicked off tonight with Caitlin Clark going No. 1, here Iowa team is seeded 5th in our new tournament and will play the 2012 team from Penn State  featuring Maggie Lucas as the 32-seed. We list the matchups first, then below the bracket of the first game, we list all teams in alpha order for reference - with their record and opponent(s) faced so far or their first opponent if they have yet to play.

However, first we seeded the 36 teams yet to play, and scheduled 18 game and then after that will reseed the 18 winners and then the lowest four seeds will get a playin game to join the other winners in the Sweet 16. In what we expected would be our most lopsided game, our new top seed Connecticut 2002 (featuring Sue BirdDiana Taurasi) easily defeated our 36-seed Delaware 2013 (featuring Elena Delle Donne), 75-36. Here is the complete schedule with one or two stars listed with each team.

1-'seed Connecticut 2002 (Sue Bird, Diana Taurasi) vs. 36-'seed Delaware 2013 (Elena Delle Donne)  - UConn wins 75-46

2-'seed Tennessee 2007 (Candace Parker) vs. 35-'seed Georgia - 2013 (Jasmine James

3-'seed Connecticut 1995 (Nykesha Sales, Rebecca Lobo) vs. 34-'seed Virginia 2018 (Dominique Toussaint) 

4-'seed South Carolina 2024 (Kamilla Cardoso) vs. 33-'seed Auburn 2009 (Keke Carrier, DeWanna Bonner

5-'seed Iowa 2024 (Caitlin Clark) vs. 32-'seed Penn State 2012 (Maggie Lucas

6-'seed Notre Dame 2001 (Ruth Riley) vs. 31-'seed Virginia Tech 2024 (Elizabeth Kitley

7-'seed Virginia 1991 (Dawn Staley) vs. 30-'seed Minnesota 2004 (Lindsay Whalen

8-'seed LSU - 2023 (Angel Reese) vs. 29-'seed Purdue 2003 (Shereka Wright

9-'seed Maryland 2006 x (Crystal Langhorne) vs. 28-'seed LSU 2005 (Sylvia Fowles, Seimone Augustus

10-'seed Ohio State 1993 (Katie Smith) vs. 27-'seed Rutgers 1988 (Sue Wicks

11-'seed NC State 2024 (Aziaha James) vs. 26-'seed Oklahoma 2010 (Abi Olajuwon) 

12-'seed North Carolina 2007 (Ivory Latta) vs. 25-'seed Marquette 2019 (Chloe Marotta, N Hiedeman) 

13-'seed Rutgers 2007 (Kia Vaughn) vs. 24-'seed Louisville 2009 (Angel McCoughtry

14-'seed Rutgers 2005 -1 (Cappie Poindexter) vs. 23-'seed Indiana 2024 (MacKenzie Holmes

15-'seed Stanford 2012 (Nnemkadi Ogwumike) vs. 22-'seed Texas Tech 1993 (Sheryl Swoopes

16-'seed Texas 1989 (Clarissa Davis) vs. 21-'seed Colorado St. 1999 (Becky Hammon

17-'seed Vanderbilt 2002 (Chantelle Anderson) vs. 20-'seed USC 1994 (Lisa Leslie, Tina Thompson

18-'seed Kentucky 2013 (DeNesha Stallworth) vs. 19-'seed UCLA 2018 (Monique Billings




TeamConfRatingWLScoreAllowGames So Far
Auburn 2009 - Keke Carrier, DeWanna BonnerSEC-14000.00.01st Game vs. South Carolina 2024
Baylor 2012 - Kalani Brownb12101173.577.0W84-81 Oreg (h),L63-73 TN
Baylor 2019 - Brittney Grinerb1281174.073.0W 76-69 Lville (H),L72-77 LaTech
Colorado St. 1999 - Becky HammonP12/MWC-40164.084.0Vanderbilt 2002
Connecticut 1995 - Nykesha SalesRebecca Lobobe10000.00.01st Game vs. Virginia 2018
Connecticut 2002 - Sue BirdDiana Taurasibe141075.046.0w Delaware 2013 - 75-46
Connecticut 2010 - Breanna Stewartbe132173.373.3W75-66 Duke(H),w74-72 USC 1983,L71-82 Tenn 1998
Connecticut 2016 - Maya Moorebe141180.064.5W98-53 Long Beach st (h), L62-76 ND
Delaware 2013 - Elena Delle DonneLow-120146.075.0L Connecticut 2002 - 75-46
Duke 2006 - Alison BalesACC-20166.075.0L66-75 at Conn 2010
Georgia - 2013 - Jasmine JamesSEC-15000.00.01st Game vs. Tennessee 2007
Indiana 2024 - MacKenzie Holmesb10-5000.00.01st Game vs. NC State 2024
Iowa 2024- Caitlin Clarkb1031084.064.0W 84-64 vs Penn State 2012
Kentucky 2013 - DeNesha StallworthSEC-3000.00.01st Game vs. Kentucky 2013
Long Beach State 1987 - Cindy BrownLow00153.098.0L53-98 at Uconn 2016
Louisiana Tech 1982 - Pam KellyCUSA103176.067.5W84-62 Texas (H),W77-72 Baylor 2012, w76-66 ND, L67-70 Tenn 1998
Louisville 2009 - Angel McCoughtryACC-5000.00.01st Game vs. North Carolina 2007
Louisville 2014 - Shoni SchimmelACC-50169.076.0L69-76 at Baylor 2019
LSU - 2023 - Angel ReeseSEC1000.00.01st Game vs. Purdue 2003
LSU 2005 - Sylvia FowlesSeimone AugustusSEC-6000.00.01st Game vs. Maryland 2006
Marquette 2019 - Chloe Marotta, N Hiedemanbe-5000.00.01st Game vs. Rutgers 2005
Maryland 2006 - Crystal Langhorneb101000.00.01st Game vs. LSU 2005
Minnesota 2004 - Lindsay Whalenb10-8000.00.01st Game vs. Notre Dame 2001
Mississippi State 2018 - Victoria VivansSEC40158.00.0L58-74 at Stanford
NC State 2024 - Aziaha Jamesacc-1000.00.01st Game vs. Indiana 2024
North Carolina 2007 - Ivory Lattaacc-1000.00.01st Game vs. Louisville 2009
Notre Dame 2001 - Ruth RileyACC2000.00.01st Game vs. Minnesota 2004
Notre Dame 2018 - Arike OgunbowalesACC43176.072.8W 76-69 at Tex AM, W87-84 Stan, W76-62, L 66-76 LaTech
Ohio State 1993 - Katie SmithB101000.00.01st Game vs. Oklahoma 2010
Ohio State 2016 - Kelsey MitchellB10-80158.074.0L at S. Car 68-79
Oklahoma 2010 - Abi OlajuwonSEC-5000.00.01st Game vs. Ohio State 1993
Old Dominion 1980- Nancy LiebermanLow40155.080.0L55-80 TN
Oregon 2019 - Sabrina IonescuB1040181.084.0L81-84 at bay 2012
Penn State 2012 - Maggie LucasB10-9000.00.01st Game vs. L64-84 vs Iowa 2024
Purdue 2003- Shereka WrightB10-7000.00.01st Game vs. LSU
Rutgers 1988 - Sue WicksB10-5000.00.01st Game vs. Texas 1989
Rutgers 2007 - Cappie PoindexterB10-1000.00.01st Game vs. Marquette 2019
Rutgers 2007 - Kia VaughnB10-1000.00.01st Game vs. Marquette 2019
South Carolina 2017 - A'ja WilsonSEC51169.073.5W79-68 Ohio State(H),L59-79 USC
South Carolina 2024 - Kamilla CardosoSEC10000.00.01st Game vs. Auburn 2009
Stanford 2012 - Nnemkadi OgwumikeACC-2000.00.01st Game vs. Texas Tech 1993
Stanford 2021- Kiana WilliamsACC81179.072.5W74-58 Miss St (H), L84-87 ND
Tennessee 1998 - Tamika Catchings, C HoldsclawSEC144076.364.0w 80-55 ODU (H) 80-55,W73-63 Bay 2012, w82-71 Uconn 2010,w70-67 LaTech
Tennessee 2007 - Candace ParkerSEC12000.00.01st Game vs. Georgia
Texas 1989 - Clarissa DavisSEC-2000.00.01st Game vs. Rutgers 1988
Texas 2018 - Ariel AtkinsSEC-50162.084.0L62-84 at La Tech
Texas A&M 2011 - Danielle AdamsSEC70169.076.0L69-76 ND (H)
Texas Tech 1993 - Sheryl Swoopesb12-4000.00.01st Game vs. Stanford 2012
UCLA 2018 - Monique Billingsb10-3000.00.01st Game vs. USC 1994
USC 1983 - Cheryl Millerb1062172.063.3W65-57 Wash (H) 2017,W79-59 S. Car 2017,L 72-74 Conn2010
USC 1994 - Lisa LeslieTina Thompsonb10-3000.00.01st Game vs. UCLA 2018
Vanderbilt 2002 - Chantelle AndersonSEC-2000.00.01st Game vs. Colorado St. 1999
Virginia 1991 - Dawn Staleyacc2000.00.01st Game vs. Virginia Tech 2024
Virginia 2018 - Dominique ToussaintACC-14000.00.01st Game vs. Connecticut 1995
Virginia Tech 2024 - Elizabeth KitleyACC-8000.00.01st Game vs. Virginia 1991
Washington 2017 - Kelsey Plumb10-30157.064.0L57-64 at USC

Sunday, April 14, 2024

Edey Card Debuts with 23 pts, 17 reb, 5 blocks and Draws 4 Fouls on 11-time NBA All-Star

The match-up of 6-foot-8, 11 time all-NBA player Dolph Schayes against 7-foot-4 2024 player of the year Zach Edey stayed close at 34-39 until there were 28 possessions left in the game. However, at that point Edey drew a forth foul on Schayes and New York University 1948 had to switch to put 6'1 Ray Lumpp on him.

Purdue pulled away from that point - winning 74-53 in the debut of both cards, and Edey finished with 23 points, 17 rebounds and 5 blocked shots. Much work is done to balance eras, including our "dunk ranges," and playing the game dispels the misconception among many fans that "shooting used to be much better" than it is today.

As an example in this game, NYC averaged hitting 25 of 86 shots, shooting below 30% for the season, and they were a very good team at 22-4 that had been national runner-up a few years earlier in Dolph Schayes freshman season. Below the box score of Purdue advancing is our preview of the game.

 
Pos       New York University 1948   Pts  3pt  2pt  FT Att Reb Stl Blk Fl   Season Actual
1-PGJoe Dolhon7023422138.2 pts, 6'0
2-SGDon Forman91224320211.9 pts, 5'10
3-SFJoel Kaufman4020051128.3 pts, 6'3
4-PFRay Lumpp1204461212417.1 pts, 6'1
5-CDolph Schayes1315001001113.7 pts, 6'8
1-PGTom Kelly6030010027.1 pts, 6'0
2-SGJoe DeBonis2010010012.7 pts
3-SF 0         
4-PF 0         
5-C 0         
 13 Turnovers53219914346515 
            
PosPurdue 2024 3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlSeason Actual
1-PGBraden Smith131422410412 pts, 6'0
2-SGLance Jones71200520311.9 pts, 6'1
3-SFFletcher Loyer102200100110.6 pts, 6'4
4-PFMason Gillis2010040216.7 pts, 6'6
5-CZach Edey2309591705124.9 pts, 7'4
1-PGEthan Morton3011221010.7 pts, 6'7
2-SGMyles Colvin2010020013.4 pts, 6'5
3-SFCamden Heide2010010013.3 pts, 6'7
4-PFTrey Kaufman-Renn8032210026.4 pts, 6'9
5-CCaleb Furst4020050012.2 pts, 6'10
 13 Turnovers744261015424716

First the setup for the game.

One reason we try to play each team once is catch any tweaks, and there were a couple of them for NYU. We needed to increase the Stamina to get high enough to cover all minutes in the game with only seven player cards. The +2 for Purdue and -21 for NYC lets you know Purdue could be about a 21-point favorite in this game - which we set up as the top newly created against the 16th best team - or overall the 232nd best team in the game against the 63rd of all time. 

The other change we made is flipping the Power Forward and Center 4th and 5th spot to line Dolph Schayes up against Zach Edey for this game. Schayes is obviously not as tall as Edey - coming in at 6-foot-8, but he was an NBA All-Star 11 years in a row so gives a classic match-up at center.

As for Edey, note that his 1-15 offensive rebound range is so strong that he will not only always get a "high rebound" reading, but he also will great the offensive rebound if the rebound chart gives one of the other Purdue players a chance for the offensive rebound but a "6" comes up on the 1-6 roll - which his teammates would not have in their range but Edey will grab.