PudnerSports.com: 2021

Friday, December 31, 2021

Est. KenPom Ratings Based On All-time Great Teams (just added four 2021 teams)

We recorded all the Value Add Basketball Games we'd played to date on this google sheet (each score is listed twice, once for each team, so you can just look up your team alphabetically). Our team rankings for our games played replicates the way KenPom rates teams, treating their actual SRS rating minus 20 as their pre-season KenPom rating and then adjusting every time we play a game with them to get the rating below.

Because the average great team in our league had an SRS of 20 (20 points better than the average team in their season) we actually subtract 20 from the SRS we list for their KenPom rating, as you can see by Duke 2001 having an actual SRS of 33, which gives them a 13 KenPom in our game. While attempting to replicate KenPom's system (long explanation below table), we add 5 points for the game if the team wins the game and subtract 5 points if they lose.

Keep in mind the games adds about the same random aspects as a real game. For example, in our games Russ Smith and the 2013 Louisville national champs created havoc with steals to thump the 2004 champs from UConn 74-61. UConn then dominated inside the crush Mikal Bridges and Nova's 2018 champs 73-56. Then Nova handled Louisville's pressure for a 77-73 win so all went 1-1.

Despite losing a rematch to the Memphis 2008 team in our game, Kansas calculates as 1st due to destroying the other Big 12 teams in our league play for an average margin of +19 for a KenPom rating slightly higher than our All-Time Tournament Champ UCLA 1972.

Rnk	Team (Year) Player you might recognize	Pre-SRS	W	L	Win%	KenPom	SoS	Sc	All	Mar
1	Kansas (2008) Mario Chalmers	27	5	1	0.833	22	0	75	56	19
2	UCLA (1972) Bill Walton	34	6	0	1.000	16	1	72	62	10
3	North Carolina (2005) Sean May	29	4	2	0.667	15	3	73	63	11
4	North Carolina (1982) Michael Jordan	21	4	1	0.800	14	6	68	64	4
5	Virginia (2019) Kyle Guy	26	4	1	0.800	14	3	73	65	7
6	Duke (2001) Shane Battier	33	0	0		13
7	Gonzaga (2017) Nigel Williams-Goss	28	3	2	0.600	11	1	69	59	9
8	Connecticut (2004) Ben Gordon	23	4	2	0.667	11	0	74	64	10
9	Indiana (1976) Scott May	27	3	1	0.750	11	0	71	60	12
10	Houston (1968) Elvin Hayes	25	3	1	0.750	11	2	73	64	9
11	Duke (2010) Jon Scheyer	26	5	2	0.714	11	1	74	67	7
12	Villanova (2018) Mikal Bridges	27	6	2	0.750	10	2	76	70	6
13	Purdue (2018) Carsen Edwards	24	5	1	0.833	10	4	72	69	3
14	UCLA (1967) Lew Alcindor	30	0	0		10
15	Kentucky (1996) Antoine Walker	33	0	1	0.000	9	-1	64	67	-3
16	Auburn (2019) Chuma Okeke	21	8	1	0.889	8	-2	71	65	6
17	Louisville (2013) Russ Smith	25	2	1	0.667	8	3	74	66	8
18	Cincinnati (1960) Oscar Robertson	27	1	1	0.500	7	11	70	74	-4
19	Kansas (1997) Paul Pierce	27	1	0	1.000	7	-16	84	68	16
20	Michigan St. (2009) Draymond Green	18	6	2	0.750	7	3	72	70	1
21	Duke (1992) Christian Laettner	25	1	1	0.500	6	2	72	65	7
22	Oregon (2017) Dillon Brooks	21	3	2	0.600	6	4	69	68	1
23	North Carolina (1998) Vince Carter	27	1	0	1.000	6	-8	72	66	6
24	NC State (1974) David Thompson	26	2	1	0.667	6	5	72	73	-1
25	Michigan (1989) Glen Rice	28	0	1	0.000	6	2	69	70	-1
26	Illinois (2005) Deron Williams	25	3	2	0.600	6	2	72	70	2
27	Memphis (2008) Derrick Rose	24	4	2	0.667	6	1	69	66	3
28	Houston (1983) Hakeem Olajuwon	23	1	0	1.000	5	-7	79	64	15
29	Illinois (1989) Nick Anderson	25	0	0		5
30	Baylor (2021) Jared Butler	25	0	0		5
31	Michigan St. (1979) Magic Johnson	23	2	1	0.667	5	-1	70	63	8
32	Kentucky (2012) Anthony Davis	25	4	2	0.667	5	-4	72	66	7
Rnk	Team (Year) Player you might recognize	Pre-SRS	W	L	Win%	KenPom	SoS	Sc	All	Mar
33	Wake Forest (1996) Tim Duncan	19	2	1	0.667	4	7	66	65	1
34	Wisconsin (2015) Frank Kaminsky	25	2	2	0.500	4	2	65	63	2
35	Oklahoma (1985) Wayman Tisdale	19	3	1	0.750	4	3	75	74	2
36	Connecticut (1999) Richard Hamilton	25	0	1	0.000	3	6	60	64	-4
37	Syracuse (2003) Carmelo Anthony	20	2	1	0.667	3	4	76	74	2
38	Ohio St. (1960) Jerry Lucas	26	0	1	0.000	3	-2	78	79	-1
39	DePaul (1980) Mark Aguirre	15	1	0	1.000	3	12	82	64	18
40	Loyola Marymount (1990) Bo Kimble	17	1	0	1.000	3	-2	138	116	22
41	Michigan (2013) Trey Burke	22	2	3	0.400	2	2	71	70	1
42	Arkansas (1994) Corliss Williamson	24	0	1	0.000	2	1	78	79	-1
43	Indiana (1981) Isaiah Thomas	22	0	0		2
44	Iowa (2021) Luka Garza	22	0	0		2
45	North Carolina (1982) Michael Jordan	21	1	0	1.000	2	-2	72	70	2
46	Seton Hall (1989) John Morton	21	1	1	0.500	2	3	78	78	0
47	Cincinnati (2002) Jason Maxiell	25	2	2	0.500	2	-1	73	72	1
48	Texas Tech (2019) Jarrett Culver	23	3	2	0.600	2	2	66	67	-2
49	Loyola-Chicago (1963) Jerry Harkness	25	0	1	0.000	2	-1	62	68	-6
50	Arizona (2015) Stanley Johnson	25	3	1	0.750	1	-5	75	71	5
51	Georgetown (1984) Patrick Ewing	19	2	1	0.667	1	1	67	65	2
52	USC (2021) Evan Mobley	21	0	0		1
53	Georgetown (2007) Roy Hibbert	20	1	2	0.333	1	-1	77	75	1
54	Pittsburgh (2009) DeJuan Blair	22	1	3	0.250	1	3	60	62	-2
55	UTEP/Texas Western (1966) Bobby Joe Hill	14	2	1	0.667	0	8	64	66	-2
56	Syracuse (1987) Rony Seikaly	18	2	1	0.667	0	-1	72	69	4
57	Missouri (1982) Steve Stipanovich	19	2	0	1.000	0	1	70	66	4
58	Purdue (1969) Rick Mount	22	0	1	0.000	0	-1	86	87	-1
59	Jacksonville (1970) Artis Gilmore	20	0	0		0
60	Duke (1986) Johnny Dawkins	23	0	1	0.000	0	-5	106	108	-2
61	Marquette (2003) Dwyane Wade	17	2	2	0.500	0	1	73	74	-1
62	Marquette (1971) Jim Chones	17	1	0	1.000	0	-4	67	58	9
63	UNLV (1991) Larry Johnson	32	1	2	0.333	-1	-4	72	78	-5
64	Kansas (1957) Wilt Chamberlain	21	1	1	0.500	-1	3	68	74	-7
Rnk	Team (Year) Player you might recognize	Pre-SRS	W	L	Win%	KenPom	SoS	Sc	All	Mar
65	Arizona (1997) Mike Bibby	22	2	1	0.667	-1	0	69	71	-2
66	Maryland (1984) Len Bias	15	1	0	1.000	-1	0	74	64	10
67	Michigan (1965) Cazzie Russell	19	0	0		-1
68	Colorado (2021) McKinley Wright	19	0	0		-1
69	South Carolina (2017) Sindarius Thornwell	18	1	2	0.333	-1	-1	65	66	0
70	Marquette (1977) Butch Lee	17	1	1	0.500	-2	-4	66	62	5
71	St. John's (1985) Chris Mullin	19	0	1	0.000	-2	1	75	76	-1
72	LSU (1992) Shaquille O'Neal	21	0	1	0.000	-2	-5	85	88	-3
73	San Diego St. (2011) Kawhi Leonard	18	2	2	0.500	-2	1	69	72	-3
74	Holy Cross (1950) Bob Cousy	15	1	0	1.000	-2	3	108	106	2
75	Kansas St. (2008) Michael Beasley	16	1	1	0.500	-2	2	75	76	-1
76	Creighton (2020) Ty-Shon Alexander	18	1	1	0.500	-2	-2	77	77	0
77	Georgia Tech (1990) Dennis Scott	18	0	0		-2
78	Kentucky (1948) Alex Groza	15	1	0	1.000	-2	1	88	85	3
79	San Francisco (1956) Bill Russell	19	0	1	0.000	-2	5	67	74	-7
80	Oklahoma St. (2004) John Lucas	21	1	3	0.250	-3	-1	69	71	-2
81	Iowa (2002) Reggie Evans	15	1	2	0.333	-3	3	71	75	-4
82	Davidson (2008) Stephen Curry	14	1	3	0.250	-3	2	64	67	-3
83	Ohio St. (2007) Greg Oden	22	2	4	0.333	-3	2	69	72	-3
84	Indiana (2002) Jared Jeffries	20	1	3	0.250	-3	2	67	73	-6
85	Florida (2006) Joakim Noah	21	3	3	0.500	-3	-4	72	71	1
86	St. Joe's (2004) Jameer Nelson	21	1	2	0.333	-4	0	68	76	-7
87	Oklahoma (2016) Buddy Hield	20	1	3	0.250	-4	3	60	67	-7
88	St. Bonaventure (1970) Bob Lanier	20	0	1	0.000	-4	-5	64	74	-10
89	Georgia Tech (2004) Jarrett Jack	21	2	4	0.333	-4	6	61	69	-8
90	DePaul (1945) George Mikan	15	0	1	0.000	-4	8	51	55	-4
91	Wichita St. (2013) Fred VanVleet	15	1	2	0.333	-4	3	64	71	-7
92	Texas (2003) T.J. Ford	19	1	2	0.333	-4	1	69	76	-8
93	West Virginia (2010) Kevin Jones	20	1	3	0.250	-4	1	70	76	-6
94	Virginia (1981) Ralph Sampson	19	0	1	0.000	-4	-2	61	72	-11
95	Tennessee (1977) Bernard King	15	1	1	0.500	-5	3	76	83	-7
96	California (1959) Jack Grout	16	0	1	0.000	-5	-1	69	71	-2
Rnk	Team (Year) Player you might recognize	Pre-SRS	W	L	Win%	KenPom	SoS	Sc	All	Mar
97	North Carolina (1957) Lennie Rosenbluth	15	0	0		-5
98	Seattle (1958) Elgin Baylor	15	0	1	0.000	-5	1	62	64	-2
99	Utah (1998) Andre Miller	18	0	1	0.000	-5	-3	69	79	-10
100	LSU (2006) Glen Davis	18	1	2	0.333	-5	0	66	75	-9
101	Alabama (1977) Reggie King	15	0	1	0.000	-6	-2	70	71	-1
102	George Mason (2006) Jai Lewis	13	0	3	0.000	-6	1	59	67	-8
103	Maryland (2002) Juan Dixon	24	1	3	0.250	-6	2	67	76	-9
104	Notre Dame (1981) Orlando Woolridge	14	0	0		-6
105	UCLA (2006) Jordan Farmar	18	2	3	0.400	-6	1	66	72	-6
106	Kansas (1988) Danny Manning	16	0	1	0.000	-7	-3	58	67	-9
107	Indiana St. (1979) Larry Bird	15	0	1	0.000	-7	-2	69	76	-7
108	South Carolina (1973) Mike Dunleavy	12	0	1	0.000	-7	7	66	72	-6
109	Notre Dame (1970) Austin Carr	13	1	1	0.500	-7	2	67	77	-10
110	La Salle (1954) Tom Gola	15	0	1	0.000	-7	-2	67	76	-9
111	Oklahoma St. (1946) Bob Kurland	15	0	1	0.000	-7	-9	80	82	-2
112	Wyoming (1943) Ken Sailors	15	0	1	0.000	-7	2	60	73	-13
113	Auburn (1984) Charles Barkley	13	1	1	0.500	-7	-3	72	77	-6
114	West Virginia (1959) Jerry West	14	0	1	0.000	-7	-7	68	69	-1
115	Kentucky (1970) Dan Issel	18	0	1	0.000	-8	-3	116	138	-22
116	Creighton (2014) Doug McDermott	19	0	3	0.000	-8	0	66	80	-14
117	Navy (1986) David Robinson	14	0	1	0.000	-8	5	61	77	-16
118	Wake Forest (2005) Chris Paul	21	0	3	0.000	-8	5	64	85	-21
119	Villanova (1985) Ed Pinckney	13	0	1	0.000	-8	-1	65	72	-7
120	Georgia (1982) Dominique Wilkins	11	1	1	0.500	-9	0	70	78	-8
121	VCU (2011) Bradford Burgess	9	0	3	0.000	-9	2	60	71	-11
122	Arizona St. (1980) Byron Scott	13	0	1	0.000	-9	3	64	79	-15
123	Louisville (1980) Darrell Griffith	16	0	1	0.000	-9	4	52	82	-30
124	Loyola-Chicago (2018) Cameron Krutwig	11	0	3	0.000	-10	3	59	75	-16
125	Butler (2010) Gordon Hayward	15	0	3	0.000	-11	5	55	76	-22
126	LSU (1970) Pete Maravich	6	0	1	0.000	-12	2	66	67	-1
127	Princeton (1965) Bill Bradley	11	0	1	0.000	-12	-2	62	79	-17
128	Niagara (1970) Calvin Murphy	4	0	1	0.000	-16	7	68	84	-16
Rnk	Team (Year) Player you might recognize	Pre-SRS	W	L	Win%	KenPom	SoS	Sc	All	Mar

Longer Explanation:

The "Pre-SRS" is the Simple Rating System number for the team for their actual season played, so a calculation of how many points better than the average team they appeared to be in their season. Since the average team in our All-Time Great Value Add Basketball Game is 20 points above their average team, we subtract 20 from that number to estimate a beginning KenPom rating for that team.

We then track the team in our game the same way KenPom does with one exception, we award or subtract an extra 5 points for which team wins and loses a game. So a team playing against 1972 UCLA gets credit for the highest Strength of Schedule (SoS) of 14 (SRS 34 - 20 = 14), and if they lost to them by 10 then they would get a "+4" for that game (Margin -10 but +14 SoS). However, because we also subtract 5 for losing they would actually get a -1 for the game.

We do this because in KenPom a team only gets a two point higher rating for winning by 1 point than by losing by 1 point - the same difference between scoring to win by 3 instead of by 1. I love KenPom's system and base a lot of my individual www.valueaddbasketball.com ratings on his team ratings, BUT for purposes of play a game I want everything to be riding on game-winning shots, so in my game missing a game-winning shot to lose by one point is a -6 but making the game-winning shot to win by 1 point is a +6.

Because a team starts with an estimated Ken-Pom 20 points lower than their Pre-season SRS, a team that has not played yet like Duke is in the ratings with a "13" and, also like KenPom, if a team has played fewer than 5 games then I give them their Pre-SRS for the balance of the five games and then average.

Team and Player: For each team we list the year and picked one of their better known players to list.

Record: Note that because we started a season of the 21st century teams first, many 20th century teams have only played a game or two, with a few at the bottom yet to play. We are playing a tournament of the new teams, and once that is done we will try to fill in and get every team up to a few games.

Thursday, December 30, 2021

Schedule of Final 4 Round 1 Games in All-Time Great Tournament

Only 4 Round 1 Games remain to be played in our tournament of 30 new All-Time Great College basketball teams. (In our original All-Time March Madness tournament featuring 96 teams, the favored seed dominated with a 62-33 record through UCLA (Bill Walton) defeating UNC (Michael Jordan) in the title game.)

#16 Michigan 1965 vs. #17 Arkansas 1978

#7 Illinois 1989 vs. #26 Notre Dame 1981

#10 Indiana 1981 vs. #23 Georgia Tech 1990

#11 Jacksonville 1970 vs. #22 North Carolina 1957

Vince Carter & 3 NBA-bound UNC teammates vs. Frank McGuire's 3 NBA-bound SC Stars

While the favorites in our 2nd tournament of all-time great teams are only 5-5, the top 6 seeds are still alive after a fun simulation of the Carolinas. (In our original All-Time March Madness tournament featuring 96 teams, the favored seed dominated with a 62-33 record through UCLA (Bill Walton) defeating UNC (Michael Jordan) in the title game.)

Al McGuire's older brother Frank pit his 3 future NBA stars with South Carolina against 4 future NBA stars with the UNC program he coached to ACC titles his last 3 years there.

On the day SC actually upset UNC in a football bowl game, they also led 45-43 with 13:50 (23 possessions) to go in our simulation. While Mike Dunleavy (1977-90), Brian Winters (1975-83) and Alex English (1977-91) combined for 38 years in the NBA and Mike Dunleavy Jr. (2003-2017) played 15 more, but PG Kevin Joyce led the actual team (20.4 ppg in 1973) and our game today (26 points).

However our 4-seed of our 30 teams in this tournament, 1998 UNC, rallied with 47 years of future NBA experience in their starting line-up with Vince Carter (1999-2020), Shammond Williams (1999-2007) and the actual star of the team center Antawn Jamison (1999-2014). Jamison averaged 22.2 points for the 1998 Final 4 team scored 28 and grabbed 13 rebounds in this game to rally UNC to a 72-66 win. (Backup Brandon Hayward actually had a long NBA career too.)

The actual team that year rolled easily to the Final 4 as the No.1 team in the AP poll in coach Bill Guthridge rookie season (Frank McGuire actually passed away 4 years before this UNC team) but then was upset in the real 1998 Final 4 by Al McGuire's longtime assistant coach Rick Majerus and Utah.

In our tournament, UNC advances to play the highest scoring, fastest paced team in history. That Loyola-Marymount team upset Kentucky in the opening round 138-116. Their win means that the top 6 seeds are still alive with No. 1 UCLA 1967 (bye), No.2 Duke 2001 (bye), No. 3 Kansas 1997 (beat Calvin Murphy's Niagra 84-68), No. 4 UNC 1998 from this game, No. 5 Michigan State 2000 (beat Rick Berry's Miami 108-104), and No. 6 Houston 1983 (beat Arizona State 79-64).

However, in the other five first round games the favorite is only 1-5. Four 1st round games remain.

QuickStart for Value Add Basketball Game

Quick start card - updated charts for reading dice rolls:

In addition to printing out the two teams you want to play from the Value Add Basketball Game instructions, you need to either buy four dice (20-sided, 8-sided and two traditional 6-sided of different colors for an 11-66 roll) OR print out these Fast Action Cards.

8-sided die determines which player gets the ball:

You can cut out the 10 cards to rotate players, but I just leave the 10 players on the sheet and put coins on the players in the game. In this case the 5 Michigan State starters (top row) are in the game, so on a roll of 1,2,3,4 or 5 you read straight across the cards from left to right with Magic Johnson (point guard far left) getting the ball on a "1" and Greg Kesler (far right) getting the ball on a "5."

The 6,7 and 8 rolls go to players with a 6,7 or 8 after their "get ball on" range under their name. For quick reference on who gets those, I put dimes on the players who get those rolls, so the first dime left to right gets it on a "6" (Magic on this sheet), the next dime gets it on the "7" (Vincent) and the third dime gets it on an "8" (Kesler).

Next check two dice 11-66 roll:

The 11-66 roll (determine which color 6-sided die is the 10s and which is the 1s before the game) determines if their is a steal (11-16 or 31 on defender's card), blocked shot (21-26 or 32 on defender's card), foul (33-36 on defender's card), turnover (41-46 on offensive player's card) or dunk/uncontested basket (51-66 based on dunk chart combination of offensive and defensive card).

Follow the chart below to see the result of the 11-66 roll.

20-sided die for shot or drawing foul

The 20-sided die is ignored if a steal, blocked shot, or turnover happen on the 11-66 roll above.

If a FOUL results from a 33-36 roll being in the defender's range, then refer to the 20-sided number on the offensive player's card to see if he also made a 3-pointer or 2-pointer and therefore gets one foul shot plus the basic, or was fouled on a 3-point shot and thus gets 3 shots, or on other results if he simply gets two free throws.

If a DUNK results from the 51-66 roll in a green range above, then the offensive player scores a 2-point basket UNLESS he chooses to take the result of the 20-sided card. This could either be because he made a 3-point shot on the 20-sided die or if he draws a foul on the 20-sided die and it results in the opposing defender fouling out.

If NOTHING results on the 11-66 roll then the result of the 20-sided die is the result of the page. In the case of Magic's card above he makes a 3-pointer on a "1," makes a 2-pointer on a 2 to 7, draws a foul to get two free throws on an 8 to 12, misses a 3-pointer on a 13 to 15, and misses a two pointer on a 16 to 20.

20-sided die for free throws

If at any point the player gets fouled then use the 20-sided die for his free throws.

Optional Advanced Rules Die Roll Adjustments

You can choose to use either or both of the following advanced rules before a game.

1. Home Court Advantage. A roll of 36 when the visiting team has the ball is changed to a 66 (meaning the ref missed a foul he should have called on the home team) or when the offense has the ball change a roll of 66 to a 36 (thus making a bad foul call against the visiting team unless the defender is very good at avoiding fouls). On average, this will help the home team about 3 points during the game.

2. Tired player. If a player plays more possessions in a game then his "Stamina" number then any time he has the ball or is defending the player with the ball, the other team can adjust both the 11-66 roll and 20-sided die roll one number in either direction for a better result (e.g. Magic's Stamina of 44 means he can play the whole game without running out of Stamina, but the other guard Mike Brkovich has a Stamina of 37 so if you played him all 44 possessions then the last 7 possessions of the game the opponent can adjust all rolls involving him by one). If a player plays DOUBLE his possessions then the other team can adjust the 20-sided or 11-66 roll by TWO in either direction (for example Draymond Green on another Michigan State team has a great card but low stamina because it was from his freshman year, so if you choose to play him the whole game then most of the game rolls would be moved two numbers against him).

Wednesday, December 29, 2021

Thank You! 400,000 Visitors to PudnerSports.com

After posting blogs on all 32 basketball all conference teams based on our www.valueaddbasketball.com ratings, we topped 400,000 visitors to www.pudnersports.com. Thank you!

The explanation for the current Value Add Basketball ratings is in this blog.

The key three links for this blog site the links to two free games with player cards - Statis-Pro Baseball Game and the Value Add Basketball Game - and the database rating all the college basketball players of this century at www.valueadddbasketball.com.

To date, our top single link is to the free college basketball board game with player cards for 128 of the greatest teams of all time (56.700 visits). Second is the free Statis-Pro baseball game and projected cards for upcoming seasons, which is in three different blogs which rank 2nd to 4th all time (total 27,600 visits). I list the top 20 individual sites as blogger reports them to me, but the exciting thing for me is that 70%, or 280,000, have simply clicked on www.pudnersports.com to read whatever our latest is vs. 120,000 who have gone specifically to one blog.

Whichever of our three topics - current college basketball ratings at www.valueaddbasketball.com, all-time great college basketball players, or for the other half of the year Statis-Pro baseball - thanks for joining us!

At the top of our list of blogs, you can start with the 127th and final game of our first all-time great tournament using the game pitting Bill Walton's UCLA vs. Michael Jordan's UNC - and then we list the ...

Top 20 blog posts at www.pudnersports.com (you can click on each link below for that blog):