Showing posts with label Arizona basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arizona basketball. Show all posts

Thursday, November 23, 2023

Big 12 Best Top to Bottom and the Return of Value Add Basketball Rankings

All-Big 12 Conf        Team               Value   AdjO   AdjD     Notes                                           
Markquis NowellKansas St.8.92111953-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Sir'Jabari RiceTexas8.66116.392.12-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe ColesTCU8.64118.494.36-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Dylan DisuTexas8.48119.192.12-seed, 29-9, Poss 20.3%
Kalib BooneOklahoma St.8.12112.891.920-16, Poss 24.5%
2nd T-Big 12 ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Osun OsunniyiIowa St.8.06112.9916-seed, 19-14, Poss 23.1%
Brock CunninghamTexas7.89128.692.12-seed, 29-9, Poss 13.4%
Adam FlaglerBaylor7.31120.4101.63-seed, 23-11, Poss 22.9%
Jalen WilsonKansas7.06106.291.81-seed, 28-8, nba 51 in 2023
Jalen BridgesBaylor7.03124.9101.63-seed, 23-11, Poss 17.3%
HM-Big 12 ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
LJ CryerBaylor6.33118.1101.63-seed, 23-11, nba 49 in 2024
Erik StevensonWest Virginia5.83107.998.19-seed, 19-15, Poss 28.9%
Keyonte GeorgeBaylor3.27102.5101.63-seed, 23-11, nba 16 in 2023

Above is a very late All-Big 12 Conference team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

While we will note in the next post that the Big East has the most talent at the top, which played out in the best tournament of any conference last year, the Big 12 is the best top to bottom. It is the only conference in which every team is in the top 100, so no team has the occasional easier game like Big East teams do when they play DePaul or Georgetown - neither in the top 150.

The stability of replacing Texas, which had flirted strongly with the Big Ten and Pac-12 and would not accept equal revenue distribution from the rest of the Big 12, with the Brigham Young program that has long been coveted may make realignment a long-term blessing. Like Notre Dame being coveted for the national Catholic following, the BYU as the flagship for Latter Day Saints members cannot be overstated - and it doesn't hurt that BYU is now ranked 12th by Pomeroy.

For Texas departure to also open a gold plated hoops power like Arizona in addition to Utah and Colorado whose entire campus is lit up with athletics in light of Deion Sanders - it looks like the Big 12 could stay atop the basketball conference rankings for a long time.

If the 2025 alignment were in place last year, the Big 12 would have had five 3-seeds or better, losing Texas but adding Arizona and Houston to Baylor, Kansas and K-State.

Team                   2023     2024    2025    Seed23  Rnk24
ArizonaP12P12B1224
Arizona St.P12P12B1211113
BaylorB12B12B12311
BYUWCCB12B12 12
CincinnatiAmerB12B12 36
ColoradoP12P12B12 34
HoustonAmerB12B1212
Iowa St.B12B12B12617
KansasB12B12B1217
Kansas St.B12B12B12340
OklahomaB12B12SEC 24
Oklahoma St.B12B12B12 90
TCUB12B12B12625
TexasB12B12SEC232
Texas TechB12B12B12 58
UCFAmerB12B12 66
UtahP12P12B12 46
West VirginiaB12B12B12997

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season
 
The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony DavisJon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 
All-American 1st Team    Team               Value    AdjO  AdjDNotes                                                
Zach EdeyPurdue13.17125.994.51-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)Connecticut11.37122.690.94-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)Houston11.25123.490.41-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan KalkbrennerCreighton10.80133.493.26-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)Utah St.10.72127.798.910-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Tylor Perry (K-State)North Texas10.37124.394.131-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)Alabama10.23117.088.21-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)Akron9.94121.9103.422-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan RobertsHouston9.90127.990.41-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)Connecticut9.88121.290.94-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)UCLA9.80113.1882-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)Penn St.9.66118.7101.110-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)UAB9.64114.797.929-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler KolekMarquette9.6311896.72-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago VescoviTennessee9.52114.287.54-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Max Abmas (Texas)Oral Roberts9.47120.2102.212-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)Indiana9.45118.597.24-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan YoungDuke9.37128.793.95-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)Memphis9.24111.196.18-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)Gonzaga9.21119.699.33-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Markquis Nowell (gone)Kansas St.8.92111953-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)Xavier8.87119.298.63-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)Kentucky8.83122.698.86-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)Louisiana8.74131.2102.913-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)Liberty8.68114.597.527-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Azuolas TubelisArizona8.68116.196.32-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)Rutgers8.66119.490.819-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)Texas8.66116.392.12-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe ColesTCU8.64118.494.36-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie EllisUSC8.56113.397.510-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%

Sunday, November 20, 2022

College Hoops 5th Best Conference History - Pac-12 (2nd Best with All UCLA Teams)

Going purely by the mathematical ratings, the top six Pac-12 teams in our game rank as the 5th best conference of all time. 

However, subjectively it is clearly the 2nd best conference of all time for the following reasons:

1. In the game we made a point of only including a couple of teams from each program, and trying not to include teams from the same school within a few years of each other. We could have easily included another half dozen teams from the John Wooden years that would have made the Pac-12 the second greatest basketball conference of all time. The same applies in our all-time Statis-Pro Baseball Game where we only include a few New York Yankees teams - and UCLA is the Yankees of college basketball.

2. The 2nd through 5th greatest conferences of all time based on our rankings are all within 1.2 points of each other anyway, so a virtual tie, 

3. The top six Pac-12 teams in the game have dominated all-time great teams for an 18-6 mark, but for some reason several surprise blowout losses among those 6 losses - such as Kareem's UCLA team getting shocked by double digits again 1980 DePaul, have held the overall rating down just a bit.

Bill Walton's 1972 UCLA team so far has been 10 points better than the rest of the conference and in fact ranks #1 of our 135 great all-time teams. Their 6-0 mark was in the tournament of our first 96 teams, where they took the title with a win against Michael Jordan's UNC. 

In addition to the great UCLA teams of the past, that 2017 Oregon team was the best in the country - and I believe would have been the clear No. 1 if their one big guy Chris Boucher (a star) was not injured at the end of the regular season to miss March Madness.

Arizona's great teams include the 1997 squad that beat Kentucky for the national title. I also really meant to include Utah's more recent team with Delon Wright, the subject of 2014 articles on my Value Add basketball ratings system, but forgot to make the team so we actually have 135 teams instead of 136. 


RnkGreat TeamYearKey Player            W    L   Pts    Allow  Rate
 Top 6 Pac-12   18674.671.24.6
1UCLA1972Bill Walton6072.062.015.5
2UCLA1967Kareem Abdul-Jabbar2183.087.05.6
3Oregon2017Dillon Brooks4371.969.92.7
4Arizona2015Stanley Johnson3175.370.52.6
5Arizona1997Mike Bibby2168.771.01.0
6USC2021Evan Mobley1077.067.00.0
7Colorado2021McKinley Wright1086.082.0-0.6
8Utah1998Andre Miller0169.079.0-4.6
9UCLA2006Jordan Farmar2366.072.4-5.2
10California1959Jack Grout0169.071.0-5.8
11Arizona St.1980Byron Scott0164.079.0-10.0

We invented the Value Add Basketball Game, and since then have grown it to to 135 teams of all-time great teams and players. We have played 188 games to date, and 63,000 unique visitors have clicked on the game. 
Seven current conferences have at least six all-time great teams in the game. We decided to rank those conferences based on the average rating of their top six teams so far in our games against other teams.

Click on the game to play yourself - it contains everything you need to play the Value Add Basketball game, which lets you pit any of 136 great all-time college teams against each other. To pick your two teams it is best to click on this Google doc and print the pages of the teams you want (each team is one page). I track my games on this google sheet, but play your own for free!

Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Top Shooting Guards in College Basketball This Season

 In Value Add Basketball we consider the team's "shooting guard" the player who behind only the team's point guard in assists, but compared to the other three players on the court typically has fewer defensive rebounds, blocked shots and less height. A great center or power forward will typically have even better raw numbers than a great point guard, because the guards typically need to get the ball to a power forward or center close to the basket for a closer shot.  (for a summary of the top players at each position, click here).

Because www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates how many points per game a player improves his team compared to if a typical replacement player took his place, the raw value add is adjusted by position since the replacement player would be at the same position. Therefore, once the formulas are run, and shooting guard's raw value add is increased by multiplying it by 1.10 to get the result you see below and at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

In general, freshmen guards in particular make so many mistakes (turnovers, bad shots etc.) the first half of the season that they do not rank nearly as high as more experienced guards. However, they tend to improve more at the end of the season, so we watch for breakout freshmen first when looking at brackets. Therefore we start with the 10 most valuable freshmen shooting guards in college basketball, starting with the best freshman shooting guard TyTy Washington of Kentucky. His value add of 6.34 indicates there is a better than 50/50 chance Kentucky would have LOST any game that they won by fewer than seven points. 

In his case, he improves the Kentucky's offense by 4.90 points per game, while his defensive rating of -1.44 indicates he takes three to four points more away from the opposing team then a typical replacement shooting guard. Here are the most valuable 10 freshmen power forwards through games of February 15. Arizona's Dalen Terry is one of three Arizona players we would name to our All-American freshmen team - and his defense of -2.35 is by far the best for any shooting guard.

RnkTop Freshmen SGTeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
15TyTy Washington #3Kentucky6.34SEC6'3"Fr
20Dalen Terry #4Arizona5.65P126'7"Fr
38Trevor Keels #1Duke4.72ACC6'4"Fr
50Terquavion Smith #0N.C. State4.35ACC6'4"Fr
60Steele Venters #2Eastern Washington4.18BSky6'7"Fr
62Reyne Smith #2Charleston4.06CAA6'2"Fr
65Nate Heise #0Northern Iowa4.02MVC6'4"Fr
67Malaki Branham #22Ohio St.4B106'5"Fr
71Brandon Murray #0LSU3.95SEC6'5"Fr
73JD Davison #3Alabama3.91SEC6'3"Fr

Top overall SG

One reason we love running these numbers is to find truly elite players who will not be noticed because their team either does not get enough TV coverage or is just not winning enough games to draw attention. The biggest case this year comes from teh 13-10 Washington in the Pac-12. We calculte that Washington would be 4-19 instead of 13-10 if Terrell Brown were not on the team, and for us that makes him the truly deserving 1st team All-American shooting guard who will not get any voters for it.

The race for 2nd and 3rd team All-American shooting buard is much closer.  TyTy Washington should be considered because it is truly unusual for a freshman guard to be anywhere near this high - but K-State, St. John's, BYU, Tennessee and the player who may have improved his team the most this year from last year - Alondes Williams of Wake Forest.
 
RnkTop Shooting Guards (2)TeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
1Terrell Brown #23Washington10.42P126'3"Sr
2Nijel Pack #24Kansas St.9.39B126'0So
3Posh Alexander #0St. John's8.8BE6'0So
4Alex Barcello #13BYU8.69WCC6'2"Sr
5Santiago Vescovi #25Tennessee8.65SEC6'3"Jr
6Alondes Williams #31Wake Forest8.15ACC6'5"Sr
7Garrett Sturtz #3Drake7.66MVC6'3"Sr
8Justin Moore #5Villanova7.53BE6'4"Jr
9Jaden Ivey #23Purdue7.05B106'4"So
10Brad Davison #34Wisconsin6.97B106'4"Sr
11Ryan Rollins #5Toledo6.72MAC6'4"So
12JD Notae #1Arkansas6.66SEC6'2"Sr
13Jaden Shackelford #5Alabama6.63SEC6'3"Jr
14Josh Jefferson #11Middle Tennessee6.39CUSA6'2"Sr
15TyTy Washington #3Kentucky6.34SEC6'3"Fr
16Eli Brooks #55Michigan6.17B106'1"Sr
17Umoja Gibson #2Oklahoma6B126'1"Sr
18Alfonso Plummer #11Illinois5.73B106'1"Sr
19Hunter Cattoor #0Virginia Tech5.71ACC6'3"Jr
20Dalen Terry #4Arizona5.65P126'7"Fr
21Reece Beekman #2Virginia5.62ACC6'3"So
22Buddy Boeheim #35Syracuse5.56ACC6'6"Sr
23Adam Flagler #10Baylor5.5B126'3"Jr
24Michael Jones #13Davidson5.49A106'5"Jr
25Grayson Murphy #2Belmont5.46OVC6'3"Sr
26Amorie Archibald #3Louisiana Tech5.41CUSA6'3"Sr
27Gibson Jimerson #24Saint Louis5.4A106'5"Fr
28Mason Archambault #11South Dakota5.25Sum6'0Sr
29Sean McNeil #22West Virginia5.23B126'3"Sr
30Rasir Bolton #45Gonzaga5.11WCC6'3"Sr
31Jabari Rice #10New Mexico St.5.05WAC6'4"Jr
32D'Moi Hodge #55Cleveland St.5.03Horz6'4"Sr
33Spencer Jones #14Stanford4.96P126'7"Jr
34James Reese V #0South Carolina4.93SEC6'4"Sr
35Rudi Williams #3Coastal Carolina4.92SB6'2"Sr
36Desmond Cambridge #4Nevada4.88MWC6'4"Sr
37Cameron Tyson #5Seattle4.87WAC6'2"So
38Trevor Keels #1Duke4.72ACC6'4"Fr
39Davion Warren #2Texas Tech4.7B126'6"Sr
40CJ Fleming #25Bellarmine4.7ASun6'0Sr
41Joe Bryant #4Norfolk St.4.62MEAC6'1"Sr
42Logan Johnson #0Saint Mary's4.54WCC6'2"Sr
43Demaree King #1Jacksonville St.4.52ASun6'0Jr
44Caleb Grill #2Iowa St.4.42B126'3"Jr
45Courtney Ramey #3Texas4.41B126'3"Sr
46Alex Hunter #10Furman4.41SC5'11"Sr
47Isaiah Wong #2Miami FL4.4ACC6'3"So
48Michael Forrest #11Florida Atlantic4.37CUSA6'1"Jr
49Tyler Harris #14Memphis4.36Amer5'9"Sr
50Terquavion Smith #0N.C. State4.35ACC6'4"Fr

Top Small Forwards in College Basketball This Year

Note: While www.kenpom.com and www.valueaddbasketball.com analytics flagging Chattanooga's Malachi Smith as the 2nd best small forward in the country, we have been informed that in fact he plays point guard - where he would also rank as the 2nd best player at the country barely behind Villanova's Collin Gillespie. We will update for his next post, but we would still consider Smith a 2nd Team All-American at this point - just at a different position. (The analytics are thrown off because he grabs so many defensive rebounds that he appears to be a small forward rather than a point guard statistically).


 In Value Add Basketball we consider the team's "small forward" the player who has some combination of more defensive rebounds, blocked shots and height than two guards on the team, and typically more assists and steals then the two players on the team we consider the center and power forward. In many cases in modern basketball this is really a third guard, but either way it is the "3" position on the court.  (for a summary of the top players at each position, click here).

Because www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates how many points per game a player improves his team compared to if a typical replacement player took his place, the raw value add is adjusted by position since the replacement player would be at the same position. Therefore, once the formulas are run, and other positions are adjusted, but the average Small Forward actually is right about the average overall player, so their calculations are not adjusted before being entered at  at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

In general, freshmen make so many mistakes (turnovers, bad shots etc.) the first half of the season that they do not rank nearly as high as more experienced players. However, they tend to improve more at the end of the season, so we watch for breakout freshmen first when looking at brackets. Therefore we start with the 10 most valuable freshmen small forwards in college basketball, starting with one of three Arizona players we would put on the Freshman All-American team - Bennedict Mathurin - who improves his team by 7.32 points per game. This means Arizona would have LOST any game that they won by fewer than seven points if he had not played..

In his case, he improves the Arizona's offense by 5.55 points per game, while his defensive rating of -1.77 indicates he takes one to two points more away from the opposing team then a typical replacement small forward. Here are the most valuable 10 freshmen small forwards through games of February 15.

RnkTop Freshmen Small ForwardsTeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
9Bennedict Mathurin #0Arizona7.32P126'6"Fr
17Kendall Brown #2Baylor6.07B126'8"Fr
38Ricky Council #4Wichita St.4.97Amer6'6"Fr
53Alijah Martin #15Florida Atlantic4.41CUSA6'2"Fr
56Jadon Jones #12Long Beach St.4.4BW6'5"Fr
90Zeke Mayo #2South Dakota St.3.44Sum6'3"Fr
93Houston Mallette #0Pepperdine3.41WCC6'5"Fr
100Caleb Houstan #22Michigan3.28B106'8"Fr
101Bryce McGowens #5Nebraska3.27B106'7"Fr
105Ra'Heim Moss #0Toledo3.21MAC6'4"Fr

If you were picking an All-American team based by position, the Small Forward or "3" spot would be the toughest choice. Mathurin certainly is close enough to the top players to be considered due to freshmen surging at the end of the year. However, Wisconsin's Johnny Davis, San Diego State's Matt Bradley, Chattanooga's Malachi Smith, Loyola's Lucas Williamson and Iowa State's Izaiah Brockingham could all be serious considered as the most valuable small forward in college basketball.
 
RnkTop Overall Small Forwards (3)TeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
1Matt Bradley #3San Diego St.9.3MWC6'4"Sr
2Malachi Smith #13Chattanooga8.84SC6'4"So
3Ochai Agbaji #30Kansas8.6B126'5"Sr
4Lucas Williamson #1Loyola Chicago8.28MVC6'4"Sr
5Johnny Davis #1Wisconsin7.9B106'5"So
6Izaiah Brockington #1Iowa St.7.79B126'4"Sr
7Keon Ellis #14Alabama7.48SEC6'6"Sr
8Wendell Moore #0Duke7.34ACC6'5"Jr
9Bennedict Mathurin #0Arizona7.32P126'6"Fr
10Darryl Morsell #32Marquette7.04BE6'5"Sr
11George Papas #5Monmouth7.04MAAC6'5"Sr
12Tevin Brown #10Murray St.6.92OVC6'5"Jr
13Isiaih Mosley #1Missouri St.6.58MVC6'5"Jr
14Julian Strawther #0Gonzaga6.49WCC6'7"So
15Kameron McGusty #23Miami FL6.4ACC6'5"Sr
16Davonte Gaines #3George Mason6.08A106'7"Jr
17Kendall Brown #2Baylor6.07B126'8"Fr
18Colby Jones #3Xavier6.04BE6'6"So
19Mark Smith #13Kansas St.6.04B126'4"Sr
20Jules Bernard #1UCLA5.94P126'7"Sr
21Kyler Edwards #11Houston5.91Amer6'4"Sr
22Taz Sherman #12West Virginia5.88B126'4"Sr
23Teddy Allen #0New Mexico St.5.85WAC6'6"Jr
24Johnny Juzang #3UCLA5.78P126'7"Jr
25Cam Spencer #12Loyola MD5.78Pat6'4"Jr
26Aaron Estrada #4Hofstra5.74CAA6'3"Jr
27Daylen Kountz #1Northern Colorado5.7BSky6'4"Sr
28Hakim Hart #13Maryland5.66B106'8"Jr
29Tyler Burton #3Richmond5.59A106'7"Jr
30De'Monte Buckingham #10UNC Greensboro5.49SC6'4"Sr
31Brandon Slater #3Villanova5.45BE6'7"Sr
32Sasha Stefanovic #55Purdue5.37B106'5"Sr
33Adrian Delph #20Appalachian St.5.3SB6'3"Sr
34Kellan Grady #31Kentucky5.13SEC6'5"Sr
35Drew Peterson #13USC5.07P126'9"Jr
36Tanner Holden #2Wright St.5.04Horz6'6"Jr
37Drake Jeffries #0Wyoming5.01MWC6'5"Sr
38Ricky Council #4Wichita St.4.97Amer6'6"Fr
39Charles Pride #5Bryant4.92NEC6'4"Jr
40Hyunjung Lee #1Davidson4.88A106'7"Jr
41Andrew Jones #1Texas4.88B126'4"Sr
42Chuck O'Bannon #5TCU4.87B126'6"Sr
43Taze Moore #4Houston4.84Amer6'5"Sr
44Gabe Brown #44Michigan St.4.77B106'8"Sr
45Jared Rhoden #14Seton Hall4.76BE6'6"Sr
46Ethan Wright #14Princeton4.61Ivy6'4"Sr
47Erik Stevenson #10South Carolina4.6SEC6'4"Sr
48David Jones #32DePaul4.59BE6'6"So
49Alex O'Connell #5Creighton4.53BE6'6"Sr
50Kane Williams #12Georgia St.4.52SB6'4"Sr

Sunday, December 26, 2021

Pac 12 Conference Top 15 Men’s Basketball Players To Date

 For Immediate Release

John Pudner, 404.606.3163, johnp@takebackaction.org


Pac 12 Conference Top 15 Men’s Basketball Players To Date


“Value Add Basketball is happy to provide the early list of the conference’s top 15 men’s  basketball players based on proven analytics used by NBA teams for draft prep,as well as writers at Sports Illustrated, ESPN, NBC Sports, Fox Sports,” said John Pudner, the inventor of the system.”


“Last year we calculated that Isaiah Mobley’s brother was actually the National Player of the Year over Luka Garza, and this year Isaiah himself is dominating as the 3rd most valuable player in the Pac-12 to give USC a chance to compete against loaded UCLA and Arizona teams. In addition to placing Jaime Jaquez and Tyger Campbell as 4th and 5th for 1st team all-Pac 12 status, note that we listed Peyton Watson and Johnny Juzang among likely future NBA players, and for Arizona both Christian Koloko and

Bennedict Mathurin are likely to end up in the NBAand give the Pac-12 an impressive seven of the top 100 players in the country.”


“While Washington is unlikely to challenge Pac-12 powers for the title, Arizona transfer Terrell Brown is playing at an All-American level in leading the Huskies. His ranking as the 13th best player in the country is calculated based on incredible numbers of steals and assists with very few turnovers, and of drawing fouls while rarely fouling.”


In addition to the top 15 players, we list five other outstanding defenders in the conference, and several other players likely headed to the NBA who could begin to dominate at some point this season.


You can click on this google doc with information on all 4,000+ players prior to it being posted on www.valueaddbasketball.com. You can also click here for the top 100 players in the country.


Information includes each player’s chance of making the NBA, his Value Add Rating for how many points he impacts a typical game (roughly 10 points is All-American level). The key to the table is: Rank = the player's conference ranking, Value Add = how many points he improves his team over a replacement player, Class = if he is in his 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th and final year of eligibility, Ht = his height, AdjD = how many points he takes away from opponents, and NBA = his percent chance of making the NBA.


Feel free to use any information contained in these statements as wanted, and email (johnp@takebackaction.org), or text/call 404.606.3163 for any questions or additional quotes from John Pudner.



RankP12TeamValue AddClassHtAdjDNBA
1Terrell BrownWashington8.93Sr6'3"-2.041%
2Andre KellyCalifornia7.66Sr6'9"-2.221%
3Isaiah MobleyUSC7.24Jr6'10"-3.1117%
4Jaime JaquezUCLA6.98Jr6'7"-3.556%
5Tyger CampbellUCLA6.96Jr5'11"-0.891%
6Christian KolokoArizona6.65So7'1"-3.9643%
7Bennedict MathurinArizona6.61Fr6'6"-1.8394%
8Michael FlowersWashington St.6.28Sr6'1"-0.971%
9Jules BernardUCLA6.11Sr6'7"-1.0826%
10Azuolas TubelisArizona5.95Fr6'11"-2.65%
11Chevez GoodwinUSC5.49Sr6'9"-1.461%
12Will RichardsonOregon5.48Sr6'5"0.2530%
13Kimani LawrenceArizona St.5.42Sr6'6"-2.421%
14DJ HorneArizona St.5.22So6'1"0.181%
15Harrison IngramStanford5.05Fr6'8"-1.3641%
DefMyles JohnsonUCLA5.01Sr6'10"-3.81%
DefMarco AnthonyUtah3.2Sr6'5"-2.81%
DefKim AikenArizona3.05Jr6'7"-21%
NBAJabari WalkerColorado4.6So6'9"-2.2774%
NBAPeyton WatsonUCLA1.68Fr6'8"-2.166%
NBADalen TerryArizona4.4Fr6'7"-1.848%
NBABoogie EllisUSC4.68Jr6'3"-1.6345%
NBAWarith AlatisheOregon St.3.82Sr6'8"-1.3522%
NBAJohnny JuzangUCLA4.06Jr6'7"-1.2857%
NBADe'Vion HarmonOregon2.81Jr6'2"-0.414%
NBAMarcus BagleyArizona St.0.35So6'8"0.1837%