Saturday, January 26, 2019

Top 30 Hitting Pitchers Based on Statis-Pro Cards

Most current season updates here.

following list counts down the best 30 hitting pitchers in Major League baseball and shows their Statis-Pro batting cards that are now included in this google sheet of all players for use in the free Statis-Pro game.

With Ohtani's (0.879 projected OPS among the best of all batters) only able to DH in 2019, the  ultimate battle of silver bat contenders featured Bumgarner beating Wainwright in the season results here.

The first two lines show the results of plays if an AL starting pitcher or NL relief pitcher must bat, with the result of the card only resulting in about a 0.158 OPS. NL Starting Pitchers hit a bit better at a 0.222 OPS clip, which results in singles 11-14, doubles on 15-16, then strikeouts on 17-51, a Walk if the result is a 52, hit by pitch if 53, and an Out if 54-88. Pitchers use the CC bunting chart (AA is best and DD is worse).

The countdown from their through the 30th best hitting pitcher down to the best based on expected OPS that would result from their card over time. When a pitcher comes to bat, the "PB" rating of the pitcher is ignored and the RN on the next card is always used on the numbers below for the result. The reason you can't use PBs when pitchers hit is that this would make a PB2-9 worse than a PB2-5 when facing an opposing pitcher because you would want the action on the weak hitting g pitcher's card.

Tracking these pitchers through their first game of at bats in Statis-Pro games after making these cards:

Phi          Arrieta (2)           xxx
SF           Blach (4)               xxx
SF           Bumgarner         missing
Mil          Chacin (4)            xxx
Chc         Chatwood reliever)         xxx
Was       Corbin (3)            xxx
NYM      DeGrom (1)        xxx
col          Freeland              0 of 2
Ari          Greinke (1)         xxx
LAD        Kershaw (1)        xxx
Sea         Leake (4)             xxxx
Chc         Lester (4)     yyyy
KC           Lively     0 of 2
Cin          Lorenzen / Roark?           1 of 3, 2b, r, K; DNP
StL          Martinez (3)       xxx
Nym      Matz      0 of 2
col          Mazquez             0 for 2
Tor         Richard (1)          xxx
Det         Ross       1 of 2, R
LAD        Ryu (4)  xxx
NYY        Sabathia               1 of 3, K, 2-run homer
Was       Scherzer (1)        xxx
Mil          Suter     0 for 2, K
NYM      Syndergaard (2)                xxx
StL          Wainwright         missing

Mil          Woodruff            0 for 1,R reached Err and W

The main problem with using season stats to produce hitting cards for pitchers is always that the sample size is too small. Therefore, I used the following processes to determine the hitters card for each pitcher.

The standard cards used by all pitchers except the 30 are based on a compilation of all pitchers hitting.

If a pitcher had 125 career plate appearances and his OPS was consistently better than the standard card - either over .300 or over .200 but with the ability to hit triples or home runs - then a card was produced.

If a batter had many more at bats than 125, then I used the option of only using more recent seasons (e.g. Clayton Kershaw did not hit well his first few years but has since then so I used the last three years). In either case, the years that were used are shown in the column on the right.

However, in some cases a pitchers has hit extremely well but not been to the plate 125 times yet. In those cases, we assume he would not keep at the same pace. In those case I assumed that over the course of additional at bats to get to 125 that he would get just 3 singles and strike out 8 times every 20 times at bat. Even holding down the Reds' Michael Lorenzen's averages by adding on those at bats, he edged out the Giants Madison Bumgarner for the best hitting card - but both calculate to hit home runs on 3 of their 64 possible results - which is like another batter having 6 home run numbers since they only have the action on their card half of the time after the PB flip to see if the opposing pitcher retains control.

Since Lorenzen does not look like he will be in the Reds new improved rotation and CC Sabathia's hitting talent is being wasted in the AL, we decided to make our first game in the ongoing NL season a match-up of Bumgarner's Giants and Wainwright's Cardinals.

While update the player sheet for these 30 top hitting pitchers, I also updated the "Sac" rating for all batters.

The 44 batters with 5 or more sacrifice bunts in 2018 have the highest Sac: AA rating

The other 66 batters with 3 or 4 sacrifice bunts in 2018 have the next best Sac: BB rating

All other pitchers get the Sac: CC rating

All other batters get the lowest rating, a Sac: DD

Monday, January 21, 2019

Value Add Simplified to Offensive and Defensive Points Per Game, and Duke's Williamson No. 1 in Both

Last week we circulated the 32 All-Conference teams which was in turn run in great posts like this one from Fresno State (top photo below). This week we simplified the figures on offense and defense to represent the points per game a player improves both the offense and defense per game at (see second photo).

Here is what each column means for the top-ranked player. Zion Williamson has the "#1" for his jersey number for Duke, and the 13.00 means he improves the final score by 13 points over a replacement player (turns a 5 point loss to an 8 point win). Continuing down the columns, his conference is the "ACC," his height is "6-07," he is a freshman (1 Fr). He improves Duke's offense by 9.48 points, and his defense takes -3.52 points away from opponents - both his offense and defense are the best in the country and add up to the 13.00 total value. 

While breaking down each players defensive impact is complicated (see factors here), we broke down the four aspects of each player's defense on a scale of 0 to 10. Williams ranks as a 9 in defensive rebounding (DefR 9^), a 10 in blocking shots (Blk 10^), a 10 in steals (Stl 10^) and a 7 in the Guarding calculation which factors all the other ways they can stop opponents from scoring in the context of offenses faced for a "Guard 7" of 10.

As you can see at, this lets you sort by conference to get the updated All-Conference players at any point in the season, or sort by best defender or offensive player, freshmen, or just pull up your team.

One note on the top ranked players - the system basically assumes that the team calculations are accurate at There is one weakness in the system, of which he is aware, in that a complete reliance on margins of victory does assume every point allowed or scored is equal. While this usually works there are exceptions. For example, he calculated Marquette was the 35th best team in the country when they were 3-2. Since then they have gone 13-1 including wins over three top 15 teams - Kansas State, Wisconsin and Buffalo - a neutral court win over a Louisville team that went into UNC and killed the Tar Heels, and a win at Georgetown with star Markus Howard (see below) out with back spasms. After that incredible run, they went from the 35th best team in the country to the ... 35th best team.

This happened because over those 14 games their overall victory margin was almost exactly what the prediction was on AS A WHOLE. So on January 1 he projected Marquette would win by 1 and since they lost by 20 that is a -21 for the game. On December 4, he projected Marquette would beat UTEP by 21 and they only won by 7 so that is a -14. So those two games out of 14 dig them a whole of -35. In the other 12 games during that 13 game streak they averaged doing 3 points BETTER than projected, a huge factor since just 10 points fewer in regulation of 5 specific games would have turned those five games from wins to losses. Obviously those 10 points were much more important than some additional points against UTEP or St. John's, but the math is that a point is a point, so while Marquette has shot up in the NCAA's NET ratings (replacing RPI) and coaches' and writers' poll, they are still at 35th at

This revives the old argument, is a team that wins more games than they should based on point differential "lucky" or "clutch." The beauty of the ratings are that the breakdowns of how each player performs is unmatched - and goes from their to fit all his stats into one overall calculation of the player's overall value. I do believe the NCAA's NET ratings are actually the great figure to use for tournament invites etc. because by accounting for playing a great team tough, they cap the victory margin at 10  so that beating a team by 40 instead of 10 does not help the NET rating the NCAA is using, even though it will greatly improve the team's rating at and the player's rating at

Sonny Gray Gives Reds 3rd Strong (PB: 2-7) Starters- Link to All Players

The Cincinnati Reds acquisition of Sonny Gray gives them a third starting pitcher who ranks as a PB: 2-7 (top 16th to 45th percentile of all pitchers based on park and defense neutral ERA/FIPs). Their actual ERAs project to be higher because they pitch in the Great American Ballpark, which is a hitters' park, but we calculate all players in a neutral park so that when they are traded no adjustments are necessary.

Gray projects to have a park neutral ERA of 3.85, just ahead of the former Dodgers' starter Alex Wood who would be No. 2 in the Reds new rotation based on the Statis-Pro cards, and Luis Castillo projects. While a PB: 2-7 is strong for a starting pitcher, teams hope for at least a couple of PB: 2-9 (top 5%) or PB: 2-8 (top 15%).

The photo above is of the current Reds players with the Statis-Pro batters in black and their project park neutral OPS as a frame of reference in their suggested batting order. Numbers 21-24 are the suggested pitching rotation, while the top reliever starts with 25, and the second best is "26" etc.

The following is the sheet of all projected players for all teams, which can be used with this link to play Statis-Pro baseball.

Thursday, January 17, 2019

Statis-Pro NL Season Continues With Current Rosters - Click to Play - Archive

Most current season updates here.

Here is the Game log continues to be updated here. The most current updates will always be here, but this is an archive of the early season updates.

The following standings result from playing the free Statis-Pro baseball game using these 2019 projected player cards for 1000+ potential MLB sorted by current rosters. Updates on the previous games through January 17, 2019 and reviews appear here.

NL East
Nationals 7-5 0 - 0.768  - Scherzer almost perfect in debut and adding Corbin gives Nats best rotation
Mets 7-5 0 - Cespedes stars to sweep Nats, but will he really return in key life in 2019?
Braves 7-5 0- Donaldson now hitting clean-up after Freeman completes great 1-4 hitters, gloves
Phillies 6-6 2  Finally made them play Cubs after trying to wait for Harper's decision.
Marlins 3-9 4

NL Central
Pirates 9-3 0 Dominicans Starling Marte/Greg Polanco dominating at top of line-up
Cubs 4-2 2  - tired of waiting for Harper and had them play Phillies, longshot Kris Bryant gets Harper
Brewers 6-6 3 - Will dominant relievers be enough to repeat?
Reds 5-7 4 - Puig, Wood and Kemp from Dodgers great, but can they get any relief pitching?
Cardinals 4-8 5 - Andrew Miller goes 9th and 10th to beat Brewers

NL West
Diamondbacks 9-3 0 - pitching still loaded and team slump of 2018 yielding to hot start in 2019
Padres 8-4 1 Newly acquired Hosmer hitting behind speedster Margot proving a killer 1-2 punch
Giants 3-3 3
Dodgers 5-7 4  Proved very vulnerable to lefties with Puig/Kemp gone; obviously they will add
Rockies 1-5 5 - "neutral park" projections make pitching pretty good, line-up not quite as dominant 

Game log will be kept on this google sheet and periodically pasted below. We pay each game counts as 3, with the winner getting 2 wins and the loser 1 win UNLESS winning team led by at least 5 runs after 8 innings without using their closer. In that case winning teams "sweeps" the series 3-0. We finally tired of waiting for Bryce Harper's decision, so had the Phillies and Cubs play without him and the Cubs won the series. A big acquisition that may pay off is Eric Hosner, who took the Brewers to the top mark in our Statis-Pro season last year and has scorched the Braves and Dodgers in our first two offseason series.

SDPaddock2LADBuehler1No1/5/2019Newly acquired Hosmer reached 6 of 10 times in the series including 3 doubles and they key 9th inning single of Jansen after speedster Margot singled and stole to give Padres 2-1 win
SDLamet9LADFerguson2Sweep1/5/2019Dodgers best player cards, but like the 1927 Yanks proved vulnerable vs a lefty starter and 5 lefty relievers, and w/ rookie replacing traded Wood, SD's Hosmer's onslaught continued off rookie Ferguson in 5-0 1st inning of 9-2 Sweep.

Projections and Background BEFORE Season

Here is the summary of how good each team's Statis-Pro cards appear to be:

OPS lineup




Total Rating

Game log will be kept on this google sheet and periodically pasted below. We pay each game counts as 3, with the winner getting 2 wins and the loser 1 win UNLESS winning team led by at least 5 runs after 8 innings without using their closer. In that case winning teams "sweeps" the series 3-0.

To try it out Print projected player sheets for all 2019 players and free dice version of game (just add dice in photo below) and print Out Chart. If you are a 1st time player but then buy the full player cards in line for current or historic teams. On the sheets you can sort teams by nation or MLB team, for example the Pirates No. 1 and No. 2 hitters in the game are Dominicans Starling Marte and Greg Polanco who just scored a combined 7 runs to beat the Cardinals in our first MLB games. Prior to that, they led the Dominican Republic to a 21-9 record to win the regular season and playoff over 2nd place Venezuela. The set up looks like the next photo, and you can order here if you want to purchase nice PDF player cards and games.We created the dice version and out chart so you could 1) use it as a free trial, 2) use all the other great teams and charts here even if you have trouble getting Fast Action Cards, and 3) to use as I do as a travel version without having to pack the whole game on trips.

To print your favorite teams; 1, click on this google sheet of projected 2019 cards; 2, define the team's batters and starters like in the next photo; then 

 3, hit print but choose to only print those cells you have selected so you get one nice sheet for all of the team's batters (which are in black) then pitchers (which are in red).

Latest: AJ Pollock reached three of four times in his Dodgers debut and made a clutch diving catch to end the 6th and keep Clayton Kershaw in a 2-2 tie en route to a 3-2 win. Bellinger made a clutch diving catch in centerfield the batter before, and in the 8th Turner made a diving catch at third base to end what had been a bases load, no outs rally. Bellinger then led off the bottom of the eighth with a game winning homer, and Jensen got the save in the top of the 9th to finally best the Diamondbacks, whose strong pitching put them in first after two series. Dodgers won the 2nd game 1-0.

Team Division W L GB Notes
Pirates NL Central 11 7 0
Cubs NL Central 8 4 0
Brewers NL Central 6 6 2
Reds NL Central 5 7 3
Cardinals NL Central 4 8 4
Braves NL East 7 5 0
Mets NL East 7 5 0
Nationals NL East 7 5 0
Phillies NL East 6 6 1
Marlins NL East 3 9 4
Diamondbacks NL West 11 7 0
Padres NL West 8 4 0
Dodgers NL West 9 9 2
Giants NL West 5 7 3
Rockies NL West 3 9 5

After the first 12 games for each team Sonny Gray was traded to the Reds to give them a very nice starting rotation as covered here. The biggest signings since then (Jan 22) were AJ Pollock going to the Dodgers (.764 OPS and excellent CD4 in the outfield) and Nick Markakis  who projects only a few points behind with a .757 OPS and one of the few fielders better than Pollock with a rare Clutch Defense 5  in RF to make the Braves even stronger. The Angels tried to help their terrible pen with Cody Allen, but we only project him as a PB2-7 (3.92 ERA as a reliever decent but not the old Cody Allen). Also, the Rangers signed Asdrubal Cabrera with a decent .756 projected OPS but no speed and below average fielding. All Statis-Pro cards are sorted by team here.

Only two great Statis-Pro pitching cards remain among free agents with ace reliever Craig Kimbrel (projected park neutral 2.72 ERA for PB2-9) and starter Dallas Keuchel (3.76 ERA for PB2-7). Beyond the two superstars of Bryce Harper (.923 projected park neutral OPS trails only Trout) and Manny Machado (.878 and elite clutch defense 3b-5 clutch defense) there are solid sluggers Mike Moutstakas .789 and cf-4, Evan Gattis .753 and Marwin Gonzalez .748. Two light-hitting but awesome middle infielders up the middle are Jose Iglesias (weak .677 but SS-4) and Josh Harrison (.689 but 2b-4).

In 2018, we played the imbalanced AL and the Red Sox, Yankees, Astros and Indians dominated to all finish between 36-24 and 38-32. However, the NL is incredibly balanced so every new acquisition gives another team a chance to emerge.

In order to list out all teams as they look with their rosters today, we set up 30 interleague 2-game series and will list match-ups and result of our two sample games in each match-up below.