Saturday, June 22, 2019

All MLB Rosters on One Easy Sheet to check you Statis-Pro Rosters (and updated standings)

For those who like playing the current Statis-Pro season with current rosters, I put them all on my one google sheet of projected cards. This does not play NEARLY as fun as using a set of cards from last season, but I keep the projection page up for when you are looking for a player who is missing, or suddenly have a player in a new stadium (e.g. Coors). The projections were all park neutral before the season started.

Comparing all 30 rosters took some time, so for the hundreds of new players I did not actually produce new cards yet. Rather I set up a very basic card that could be used for a batter with an OPS closest to .800, .750, .700, .650, .600 and then just listed steals to give you an idea of whether you should give him a triple in place of his highest double, and take a stab at OBR/SP. Basically sorted each team's actual roster plus DLs by OPS and then by ERA. The yellow means I do not have a card for them but wanted to at least show were they might fit in the line-up.

I am sure I will produce a batch of cards for new players just to fill in gaps, but after putting hours into getting all rosters on one sheet and clearing out the junk, I wanted to get this down and resume playing.


With the sheets cleaned up, we also put in a nice binge day to try to get all our NL teams up to a 24-game record (which is really 8 games, or two times through the rotation, because we count every game as a 3-game series which is usually split 2-1, unless you get a sweep by being up by 5 after 8 innings without using your closer. My best friend and I rotate leagues each year, so he has the AL this year. After I had the Astros, Red Sox, Yankees and Indians leave everyone in the dust last year all within a game of 38-22, the super balanced NL is anyone's game. Even the Giants have pulled off a couple of shockers despite a very weak rotation. Here are the standings with some recent game updates, but I keep a short summary on each game I play here.



TeamDivisionWinsLossesGames Back
CubsNL Central1260
PiratesNL Central13112
BrewersNL Central12123
RedsNL Central12123
CardinalsNL Central11197
BravesNL East1680
PhilliesNL East14102
NationalsNL East13113
MetsNL East11135
MarlinsNL East7179
GiantsNL West18120
DiamondbacksNL West14101
DodgersNL West14101
PadresNL West1082
RockiesNL West6126

Recent Game Summaries (Starting pitcher for winning team, winning team, their runs, then same for visitors, then if it was a Sweep, then a short summary):

·         LAD, Ryu, 7, LAA, Cole, 2, yes, Bellinger slammed 3 homers and Ryu gave up just one run in 6 innings to dominate after Trout's leadoff homer to start the game.
·         Sea, Kikuchi, 6, SD, Lauer, 1, No, Excitement of seeing rookie Fernando Tatis Jr, Hosmer and Machado batting 2nd to 4th fizzled when Padres left 5 in scoring position in first 4 winnings and Vogelbach's 2-run homer broke tie.
·         Chc, Darvish, 9, ChW, Cease, 0, Yes, Kimbrel warming up to preserve a 3-0 win in his first Cubs appearances was anti-climatical when Baez 3-run homer keyed a 6 run 8th and 9-0 win. Cubs have scored 9 both Darvish starts.
·         Mil, Chacin, 7, SF, Blach, 3, In a match up 2 great hitting pitchers, Chacin's 2 2-out singled drove in a run and kept the inning alive for a 2-run Cain homer in the 7-3 win.
·         SF, Rodriguez, 6, Mil, Nelson, 5, Giants stunning run continues as 2 of the best bullpens kept it tied after 9, our international rules of starting 2 on base in the 10th led to 2 SB and runs for Mil, then Bolt 3-run homer
·         Atl, Keuchel, 2, NYM, Syndergaard, 0, x, Keuchel's return to Statis-Pro play could not have been better, needing only Minter to come in for the save in a 2-0 win off 2 uneared runs.
·         Atl, Fried, 3, NYM, Lugo, 2, Homers by Freeman and McCann, and Acuna's speed (1 out HBP, stole second, raced home on 2-out single by Freeman) was just enough after 6 innings from Friend and pen barely held.
·         Pitt, Musgrove, 4, Cin, Gray, , 3, No, , In 7th, Schebler's 2-run, 2-out pinch hit homer cut Pirates lead to 4-3, then Puig walked and stole second, but could not score on Votto line drive. Vazquez lights out save in 9th.
·         Cin, Castillo, 21, Pitt, Stratton, , 3, Yes, , If you play long enough ... Reds scored 11 in 1st in 21-3, 20-hit performance to claim credit for sweep. Puig HR, 2B, !B, Barnhart that plus extra single, Peraza triple and 2 singles.

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Box Score from UVA 2019 Beating Chris Paul's Wake Forest Team on NBA Draft Night

I had just moved from my Value Add Basketball Game to Statis-Pro Baseball after the NBA Finals, but I decided to put Chris Paul's Wake Forest team up against UVa's recent national champs. UVa was the first team with three players in the top 20 at www.valueaddbasketball.com, and all three were picked in the NBA Draft including De'Andre Hunter as the 4th pick (he will make $14.5 million for his first two years while teammate Ty Jerome will make $4.5 million for being picked 24th ,while Kyle Guy UVa is not guaranteed a contract but was picked in the second round). In my game, UVa moved into 2nd place in the vicious 8-team ACC with the blowout of Wake Forest.


(Those who want to play the game should read the note at the bottom on the numbers to the left showing when each player plays.) Because average point differential is my tie-breaker, a team winning big does leave the starters in until the end - and in this case Kyle Guy hit a 3-pointer at the end and then Jerome stole the ball to end the game and give UVa an average win margin of +15 to nudge past Duke (+14) and UNC (+12) for second place behind Carmelo Anthony and the 3-0 Syracuse team. Since I also play possessions rather than actual time, so UVa's slowest in the nation pace is not a factor as they get a half dozen more possessions than they typically get in a game. They were the only team I've had in almost 60 games played to only allow 1 steal and they actually only had two turnovers in the game.

The other ACC game I played back-to-back to get all 8 teams up to three games was much more exciting. Georgia Tech (2004) Jarrett Jack grabbed six steals and drove to the hoop to foul Pitt (2019) point guard Lawrence Fields which was a key down the stretch. The game stayed within 2 points from 39-38 with 20 possessions left (12:08) to 55-53 (1:52 left) when Pitt's DuJuan Blair seemed to give Pitt to chance by rejecting a shot, only to have Georgia Tech's Luke Schenscher grab the rebound and score to make it 57-53 en route to a 57-54 win that left both teams at 1-2.



I do let four ACC teams make the tournament since there are five National Champions and in the conference, and the next closest is the Big East with three (even though I did move Syracuse from their actual 2003 spot in the Big East to the ACC as I was balancing the conferences.


Note for those playing the game. The game starts with a 20-20 score and 44 possessions remaining, which we count down from 44-1 on the scoresheet. I do show the box scores for all games in all 8 conferences in this google sheet, That sheet let's other players look at the numbers on the left side of the box to see what possessions I have each player in the game and at what position. Jerome is one of the more complicated rotation guys since Hunter and him can basically play anywhere from point guard to power forward. The numbers show that he starts the game at the "1" or point guard and the first range of 44-34 means those are the 11 possessions he plays at that position. he then gives Hunter a two possession rest during possessions 32-31 at the "4," then he sits out one possession (the 30th), and finally ends up at the "2" for the final 30 possession of the game (30-1). Braxton Key plays at the "2" from 44-31 until Jerome gets there.

Monday, June 17, 2019

Statis-Pro Baseball Season Resumes Now That Hoops Over - Royals Overcome Puig's 3rd Homer in 2 Games

After a few months focused on the new basketball game through the NBA Finals, I went back to the Statis-Pro baseball season. Ironically the Reds two best relievers (both PB2-7) had been used in the first game of a two game series to wrap up the first game against the Royals 3-1 behind two Puig homers, and that bit them as Hughes gave up a 2-run homer in the 9th to Gordon to give the Royals the split and drop the Reds to 8-10.


The only two line-up changes I needed to make two months later was subbing Duda in for O'Hearn in the Royals lineup, and replacing Kemp in the Reds line-up. Puig and Suarez both homered to give the Reds to 2-1 lead until the top of the 9th.

The most discouraging part for the Reds was Votto hitting a triple to lead off the 8th but not score. The Reds line-up is not as good against lefties, and Duffy held them to 2 runs in 6 innings, but they faced righties out of the pen and failed to score.  Here is the line-up sheet - I put two games on each sheet and the winning team in each of these games was awarded a 2-1 win to make it 3 games each on the grid above. If a team wins and leads by at least 5 runs after not using their closer, then they get a 3-0 sweep.

Thursday, June 13, 2019

Tale of 2 Game 7s: DOH! called Boston at Faceoff as MA Chased CA for 21st Century Champions

Almost 24 hours ago I was driving home excited about Boston trying to claim Massachusetts 18th championship of the century in one of the four traditional sports, while I played off two great college basketball teams of the century in my game and put in my miles on the walking desk. A couple of notes prior to the NBA's Game 6 and then the following tables at the bottom of this post:

Table A at bottom - 21st Century Champions by State
Table B at bottom - 48 Great Basketball Teams with Future NBA Players

If the Bruins had taken the Stanley Cup they would have tied California with 18 titles this century in the traditional four sports. If Toronto finished off Golden State tonight or Sunday after both UCLA and Stanford were stunned and are not in the College Baseball World Series (go Auburn!), Massachusetts could still pass the much larger California if both UMass hockey and the New England Patriots take the title.

Even with the setback last night, the fact that the 7 million residents of the Bay State have enjoyed more championships than the 29 million Texans and 19 million Floridians and almost as many as the 40 million Californians seems a bit disproportional. And then my DOH moment happened.

I remember I am supposed to call someone back from Boston, glance at the clock on my dash to see it is still just after 7 p.m. - I am assuming the clock is on Atlanta/Eastern time - and make a (legal) bluetooth call. To my horror, I suddenly realize the clock is actually on Auburn AL/Central time and I have basically just placed a call as the puck is being dropped IN BOSTON for Game 7 of the Stanley Cup. Wow, hopefully I am not banned from the Bay State for long.

Now that I've recovered from that mistake, a few notes on the daunting task of Golden State repeating what LeBron James did to them by winning three straight games after falling behind 3-1 in the NBA Finals.

I reflected on just how hard it is to win three straight games against great teams as 2004 UConn beat 2014 Louisville to prevent the latter from getting to 3-0 in my dice game. With that result, only 6 of my 48 Great College teams of the Century managed to start 3-0 having to play from among the other 42 great teams. Carmelo Anthony's 2003 Syracuse, Mario Chalmers' 2008 Kansas and Anthony Davis' 2012 Kentucky joined three modern teams who ironically were the last three teams that UVa pulled a Houdini against to win this year's title.

We actually used Carsen Edward's 2018 Purdue team so he could throw the ball to two 7-foot-2 players with almost the same name (Haas and Haarms). His Boilermakers who lose in the Elite 8 to UVa started their Big Ten play 3-0, Auburn at full strength with Chuma Okeke, who was injured the game before their last second loss to UVa in the Final 4 joined Kentucky atop the ACC at 3-0 when Stephen Curry scored my all-time high 38 points to stun 2006 Florida and drop them to 2-1, and the Texas Tech team that lost in OT with start defender Tariq Owens hobbling joined Kansas at 3-0 in Big 12 play.

The first of two tables lists the 21st century champions in the four traditional sports:

18, CA (California has 18 titles below, Golden State going for 20)
17, MA (the Bay State has 17 titles below, the Patriots and UMass hockey among favorites)
14, FL
10, TX
9, PA
8, NC
6, AL
5, CO, IL, MN, NY
4, CT, MI, MO, SC
3, LA, OH, OR
2, AZ, KY, MD, VA, WI

1, DC, IN, KS, LSU, ND, NJ, RI, TN, WA



YEARStateSportCHAMPION
2019NBAToronto Raptors or Golden State
2019MNCollege HockeyMinnesota Duluth
2019MONHLSt. Louis Blues 
2019VACollege BasketballVirginia
2018CANBAGolden State Warriors
2018DCNHLWashington Capitals 
2018MAMLBBoston Red Sox 
2018MANFLNew England Patriots
2018MNCollege HockeyMinnesota Duluth
2018ORCollege BaseballOregon State
2018PACollege BasketballVillanova
2018SCCollege FootballClemson
2017ALCollege FootballAlabama
2017CANBAGolden State Warriors
2017COCollege HockeyDenver
2017FLCollege BaseballFlorida
2017NCCollege BasketballNorth Carolina
2017PANFLPhiladelphia Eagles
2017PANHLPittsburgh Penguins 
2017TXMLBHouston Astros
2016ILMLBChicago Cubs 
2016MANFLNew England Patriots
2016NCCollege BaseballCoastal Carolina
2016NDCollege HockeyNorth Dakota
2016OHNBACleveland Cavaliers
2016PACollege BasketballVillanova
2016PANHLPittsburgh Penguins 
2016SCCollege FootballClemson
2015ALCollege FootballAlabama
2015CANBAGolden State Warriors
2015CONFLDenver Broncos
2015ILNHLChicago Blackhawks 
2015MOMLBKansas City Royals 
2015NCCollege BasketballDuke
2015RICollege HockeyProvidence
2015VACollege BaseballVirginia
2014CAMLBSan Francisco Giants
2014CANHLLos Angeles Kings 
2014CTCollege BasketballConnecticut
2014MANFLNew England Patriots
2014NYCollege HockeyUnion
2014OHCollege FootballOhio State
2014TNCollege BaseballVanderbilt
2014TXNBASan Antonio Spurs
2013CACollege BaseballUCLA
2013CTCollege HockeyYale
2013FLCollege FootballFlorida State
2013FLNBAMiami Heat
2013ILNHLChicago Blackhawks 
2013KYCollege BasketballLouisville
2013MAMLBBoston Red Sox 
2013WANFLSeattle Seahawks
2012ALCollege FootballAlabama
2012AZCollege BaseballArizona
2012CAMLBSan Francisco Giants 
2012CANHLLos Angeles Kings 
2012FLNBAMiami Heat
2012KYCollege BasketballKentucky
2012MACollege HockeyBoston College
2012MDNFLBaltimore Ravens
2011ALCollege FootballAlabama
2011CTCollege BasketballConnecticut
2011MANHLBoston Bruins 
2011MNCollege HockeyMinnesota Duluth
2011MOMLBSt. Louis Cardinals
2011NYNFLNew York Giants
2011SCCollege BaseballSouth Carolina
2011TXNBADallas Mavericks
2010ALCollege FootballAuburn
2010CAMLBSan Francisco Giants 
2010CANBALos Angeles Lakers
2010ILNHLChicago Blackhawks 
2010MACollege HockeyBoston College
2010NCCollege BasketballDuke
2010SCCollege BaseballSouth Carolina
2010WINFLGreen Bay Packers
2009ALCollege FootballAlabama
2009CANBALos Angeles Lakers
2009LACollege BaseballLSU
2009LANFLNew Orleans Saints
2009MACollege HockeyBoston University
2009NCCollege BasketballNorth Carolina
2009NYMLBNew York Yankees 
2009PANHLPittsburgh Penguins 
2008CACollege BaseballFresno State
2008FLCollege FootballFlorida
2008KSCollege BasketballKansas
2008MACollege HockeyBoston College
2008MANBABoston Celtics
2008MINHLDetroit Red Wings 
2008PAMLBPhiladelphia Phillies 
2008PANFLPittsburgh Steelers
2007CANHLAnaheim Ducks 
2007FLCollege BasketballFlorida
2007LSUCollege FootballLouisiana State
2007MAMLBBoston Red Sox 
2007MICollege HockeyMichigan State
2007NYNFLNew York Giants
2007ORCollege BaseballOregon State
2007TXNBASan Antonio Spurs
2006FLCollege BasketballFlorida
2006FLCollege FootballFlorida
2006FLNBAMiami Heat
2006INNFLIndianapolis Colts
2006MOMLBSt. Louis Cardinals 
2006NCNHLCarolina Hurricanes 
2006ORCollege BaseballOregon State
2006WICollege HockeyWisconsin
2005COCollege HockeyDenver
2005ILMLBChicago White Sox 
2005NCCollege BasketballNorth Carolina
2005PANFLPittsburgh Steelers
2005TXCollege BaseballTexas
2005TXCollege FootballTexas
2005TXNBASan Antonio Spurs
2004CACollege FootballSouthern California
2004CACollege BaseballCal State Fullerton
2004COCollege HockeyDenver
2004CTCollege BasketballConnecticut
2004FLNHLTampa Bay Lightning 
2004MAMLBBoston Red Sox
2004MANFLNew England Patriots
2004MINBADetroit Pistons
2003FLMLBFlorida Marlins
2003LACollege FootballLouisiana State, Southern California
2003MANFLNew England Patriots
2003MNCollege HockeyMinnesota
2003NJNHLNew Jersey Devils 
2003NYCollege BasketballSyracuse
2003TXCollege BaseballRice
2003TXNBASan Antonio Spurs
2002CAMLBAnaheim Angels
2002CANBALos Angeles Lakers
2002FLNFLTampa Bay Buccaneers
2002MDCollege BasketballMaryland
2002MINHLDetroit Red Wings 
2002MNCollege HockeyMinnesota
2002OHCollege FootballOhio State
2002TXCollege BaseballTexas
2001AZMLBArizona Diamondbacks 
2001CANBALos Angeles Lakers
2001CONHLColorado Avalanche 
2001FLCollege BaseballMiami
2001FLCollege FootballMiami
2001MACollege HockeyBoston College
2001MANFLNew England Patriots
2001NCCollege BasketballDuke

For any Californians trying to add the LA Lakers 2000 title - sorry, that is the LAST year of the 20th Century.

Now for the standings of my great college teams. Basically I developed this dice game with pretty precise numbers to let myself pull out the dice, player cards and rebound chart to make myself shut of the computer and play a meaningless game that takes 30 minutes. With the NBA Finals I will likely switch back to a half hour "get off computer" Statis-Pro baseball to help me keep up with all the new baseball stars. The following are my current standings after a couple of months with the Great Teams basketball season, and I list all players on each team who made the NBA and how many years they were on an NBA team (or I project how long careers will go for current  players or future draft picks - because I don't believe Kawhi Leonard will be done anytime soon).


ACC (past & present)WinLossPtsPtsAllDiffNBA Players, actual and estimated years
Syracuse 200330847410.02 Nba players, 24 NBA yrs, Carmelo Anthony 16, Hakim Warrick 8
Duke 201021806614.06 Nba players, 30 NBA yrs, Lance Thomas 7, Kyle Singler 6, Miles Plumlee 6, Mason Plumlee 5, Ryan Kelly 4, Nolan Smith 2
North Carolina 200521756312.06 Nba players, 40 NBA yrs, Marvin Williams 13, Raymond Felton 13, Sean May 5, Rashad McCants 4, Jawad Williams 3, David Noel 2
Virginia 20191185787.03 Nba players, 20 NBA yrs, De'Andre Hunter 10, Ty Jerome 7, Kyle Guy 3
Pittsburgh 2009116364-1.03 Nba players, 12 NBA yrs, DeJuan Blair 7, Sam Young 4, Brad Wanamaker 1
Maryland 2002126575-10.04 Nba players, 35 NBA yrs, Steve Blake 13, Chris Wilcox 11, Juan Dixon 7, Lonny Baxter 4
Georgia Tech 2004025572-17.03 Nba players, 23 NBA yrs, Jarrett Jack 13, Will Bynum 8, Luke Schenscher 2
Wake Forest026187-26.01 Nba players, 17 NBA yrs, Chris Paul 17
Big 12 (A10)WinLossPtsPtsAllDiffNBA Players, actual and estimated years
Kansas 2008307550257 Nba players, 42 NBA yrs, Brandon Rush 10, Darrell Arthur 10, Mario Chalmers 9, Cole Aldrich 8, Darnell Jackson 3, Sasha Kaun 1, Sherron Collins 1
Texas Tech 201930686081 Nba players, 9 NBA yrs, Jarrett Culver 9
St. Joe's 2004217175-43 Nba players, 28 NBA yrs, Jameer Nelson 14, Delonte West 8, Dwayne Lee 6
Texas 2003116470-63 Nba players, 21 NBA yrs, Royal Ivey 10, T.J. Ford 9, James Thomas 2
Oklahoma 2016125864-61 Nba players, 12 NBA yrs, Buddy Hield 12
Oklahoma St. 2004026774-75 Nba players, 36 NBA yrs, Tony Allen 14, John Lucas 9, Joey Graham 6, Stephen Graham 6, Ivan McFarlin 1
West Virginia 2010026776-92 Nba players, 4 NBA yrs, Devin Ebanks 3, Kevin Jones 1
K-State 2008026373-102 Nba players, 18 NBA yrs, Michael Beasley 13, Henry Walker5
Big East (past & present)WinLossPtsPtsAllDiffNBA Players, actual and estimated years
Connecticut 200431736013.06 Nba players, 47 NBA yrs, Ben Gordon 11, Charlie Villanueva 11, Emeka Okafor 11, Hilton Armstrong 6, Josh Boone 4, Marcus Williams 4
Villanova 20182174695.05 Nba players, 40 NBA yrs, Mikal Bridges 11, Jalen Brunson 9, Omari Spellman 8, Donte DiVincenzo 7, Eric Paschall 5
Marquette 20032173730.03 Nba players, 31 NBA yrs, Dwyane Wade 15, Steve Novak 11, Travis Diener 5
Georgetown 20071176715.04 Nba players, 24 NBA yrs, Jeff Green 10, Roy Hibbert 9, DaJuan Summers 4, Patrick Ewing 1
Louisville 20131174695.04 Nba players, 23 NBA yrs, Gorgui Dieng 10, Montrezl Harrell 10, Russ Smith 2, Peyton Siva 1
Cincinnati 2002117175-4.01 Nba players, 10 NBA yrs, Jason Maxiell 10
Creighton027285-13.01 Nba players, 11 NBA yrs, Doug McDermott 11
Butler 2010025480-26.02 Nba players, 26 NBA yrs, Gordon Hayward 15, Shelvin Mack 11
Big TenWinLossPtsPtsAllDiffNBA Players, actual and estimated years
Purdue 20183075687.02 Nba players, 6 NBA yrs, Carson Edwards 5, Vince Edwards 1
Illinois 20052174740.05 Nba players, 23 NBA yrs, Deron Williams 12, Luther Head 6, Dee Brown 2, James Augustine 2, Roger Powell 1
Wisconsin 20151168635.04 Nba players, 21 NBA yrs, Sam Dekker 10, Frank Kaminsky 9, Duje Dukan 1, Nigel Hayes 1
Michigan 20131172702.06 Nba players, 48 NBA yrs, Caris LeVert 11, Trey Burke 10, Nik Stauskas 9, Tim Hardaway 9, Glenn Robinson 7, Mitch McGary 2
Michigan St. 20091174740.02 Nba players, 17 NBA yrs, Draymond Green 16, Kalin Lucas 1
Iowa 2002116368-5.02 Nba players, 16 NBA yrs, Reggie Evans 13, Jared Reiner 3
Indiana 2002027276-4.01 Nba players, 11 NBA yrs, Jared Jeffries 11
Ohio St. 2007027080-10.04 Nba players, 31 NBA yrs, Mike Conley 17, Daequan Cook 6, Greg Oden 6, Othello Hunter 2
Pac 12 (WCC, MVC, CUSA)WinLossPtsPtsAllDiffNBA Players, actual and estimated years
Gonzaga 201721725715.02 Nba players, 2 NBA yrs, Killian Tillie 1, Zach Collins 1
Oregon 20172175705.04 Nba players, 22 NBA yrs, Tyler Dorsey 7, Dillon Brooks 6, Jordan Bell 6, Chris Boucher 3
Arizona 20151169645.03 Nba players, 28 NBA yrs, Stanley Johnson 10, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 9, T.J. McConnell 9
San Diego St.1173721.03 Nba players, 24 NBA yrs, Kawhi Leonard 18, Malcolm Thomas 4, Jamaal Franklin 2
Wichita St. 20131169690.03 Nba players, 17 NBA yrs, Fred VanVleet 9, Ron Baker 6, Cleanthony Early 2
Memphis 2008116068-8.04 Nba players, 21 NBA yrs, Derrick Rose 10, Chris Douglas-Roberts 6, Joey Dorsey 4, Antonio Anderson 1
UCLA 2006115971-12.06 Nba players, 51 NBA yrs, Arron Afflalo 11, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute 10, Jordan Farmar 10, Ryan Hollins 10, Darren Collison 9, Cedric Bozeman 1
Loyola-Chicago 2018025873-15.00 Nba players, 0 NBA yrs
SEC (Colonial)WinLossPtsPtsAllDiffNBA Players, actual and estimated years
Kentucky 201230746212.04 Nba players, 25 NBA yrs, Anthony Davis 16, Darius Miller 4, Marquis Teague 3, Doron Lamb 2
Auburn 20193066579.02 Nba players, 9 NBA yrs, Chuma Okeke 7, Austin Wiley 2
Florida 20062165641.05 Nba players, 46 NBA yrs, Al Horford 16, Joakim Noah 14, Corey Brewer 13, Chris Richard 2, Taurean Green 1
South Carolina 20171169654.02 Nba players, 7 NBA yrs, Sindarius Thornwell 5, PJ Dozier 2
Davidson1265650.01 Nba players, 18 NBA yrs, Stephen Curry 18
George Mason 2006026369-6.00 Nba players, 0 NBA yrs
VCU 2011025569-14.00 Nba players, 0 NBA yrs
LSU 2006025776-19.03 Nba players, 24 NBA yrs, Garrett Temple 8, Glen Davis 8, Tyrus Thomas 8

Monday, June 10, 2019

Value Add Basketball Dice Game Ave. Score 75-63 While Real Final Four Average 74-64 this Century

Stephen Curry averaged 20.5 points in his first two dice games, but in the 54th Great Teams of the Century he set a new high in the dice game with 38 points - enough to upset the 2006 Florida Gators champs despite no other Davidson player breaking double figures. Buddy Hield of Oklahoma had the high until then with 37 vs. Oklahoma State.

The following are the updated standings and leader boards for all 48 Great Teams of the Century after 54 total games played. The average score in those 54 games is 75-63, while in real life it has been 74-64 in the last 54 Final Four (and Championship) games. This is a good apples-to-apples because Final Fours and the dice game features elite teams except for the occasional surprise team.

The game also appears to be balanced based on how hard it has proven for any one great team to win three straight games. of the 48 great teams, only 4 to 8 will start the season 3-0. So far Kansas has defeated their first three Big 12 opponents, Purdue their first three Big Ten opponents, and both Kentucky and Auburn started 3-0 in the SEC. Four more teams started 2-0 but have yet to play their third game - Villanova (Big East), Gonzaga (Pac-12). Syracuse (ACC) and Texas Tech (Big 12). If a lot of the great teams started 3-0 it might indicated the player cards are unbalanced with the great teams being "too good."

Click on each conference for the update on leaders and records, or here for a google sheet of all box scores and standings, or finally here for the official rules and links to player cards if you want to play yourself.

ACC

Big 12

Big East

Big Ten

Pac-12

SEC

After completing 54 games in my Great Teams of the Century play of Value Add Basketball, I compared those scores to the 54 Final Four and Championship games that have been played during the era covered by the game (2002 season to just concluded 2019 season). The overall scoring was amazingly identical - with the average points scored in the dice game 69.08 within a tenth of a point of the 69.15 scored in the actual Final Four games.

However, the average win in the dice game is 75-63, while in real life it has been 74-64. That could be because there is a slight inaccuracy in the game, however one other possibility is that in real life teams let up once they have the game one, whereas in the dice game we play it out to the end - particularly because point differential is the tie-breaker.

To take an extreme case, Jameer Nelson was having an off day against a tough Kansas team - which is not unusually considering he was coming off two hot games with a 29.5 points per game average. St. Joe's was down by 26 - 75-49 - at which point in a real game Kansas would have pulled their subs, probably let a couple of players get to the hoop for an easy bucket or two, and let a walk on take a shot. Perhaps Kansas would have won by 21 or 22 in the end. However, playing the game out with the dice Mario Chalmers drilled 3-pointers on consecutive trips to stretch the lead to 81-52 and then Robinson stole the ball from Nelson on a play that we know from the dice would have been a 3-pointer made, and he fed it ahead to Rush for a dunk to give Kansas a 31-point win - 83-52.

You can see how the dice would have slightly larger average margins, but I will keep also watching for any future tweaks if the strong teams do have a slightly bigger edge right now than they should. The following would be the playoff bracket if the season ended today, but teams will play seven games.



Here are the scores for the last 54 Final Four Games (including Championships) as well as our 54 games, organized from closest game to biggest blowout. For these purposes, I take the score at the end of regulation, so Virginia's win over Texas Tech this year counts the 68-68 at the end of regulation, and Kansas comeback over Memphis is 2008 is 63-63, while Marquette's dice win over Creighton was 83-83. I actually thought that game was unrealistic because Marquette scored 17 points in overtime for a 100-90 win - but then I realized Virginia also scored 17 in overtime against Texas Tech.

YearWinner of Actual Final 4 GamesLoserPtsPts AllDiffWinner Dice GameLoserPtsPts AllDiff
2019Virginia (35-3) = OT winTexas Tech68680Marquette 2003Creighton 201483830
2008Kansas (37-3) = OT winMemphis63630Iowa 2002Michigan St. 200971701
2019Virginia (35-3)Auburn63621Texas Tech 2019Oklahoma St. 200473721
2017North Carolina (33-7)Oregon77761Florida 2006South Carolina 201767661
2014KentuckyWisconsin74731Syracuse 2003Duke 201086842
2011Connecticut (32-9)Kentucky56551Kentucky 2012George Mason 200666642
2004Connecticut (33-6)Duke79781Cincinnati 2002Georgetown 200779772
2012KansasOhio State64622Michigan St. 2009Indiana 200278762
2010Duke (35-5)Butler61592Memphis 2008Oregon 201772702
2010ButlerMichigan State52502Illinois 2005Wisconsin 201571692
2004Georgia TechOklahoma St.67652Villanova 2018Louisville 201377734
2016Villanova (35-5)North Carolina77743Auburn 2019Davidson 201169645
2003Syracuse (30-5)Kansas81783Purdue 2018Indiana 200274686
2017GonzagaSouth Carolina77734Pittsburgh 2009North Carolina 200570646
2013Louisville (35-5)Wichita State72684St. Joe's 2004K-State 200880737
2015Duke (35-4)Wisconsin68635Illinois 2005Ohio St. 200783767
2013MichiganSyracuse61565Purdue 2018Michigan 201375678
2005North Carolina (33-4)Illinois75705Oregon 2017San Diego St. 201178708
2017North Carolina (33-7)Gonzaga71656Purdue 2018Illinois 200577698
2014Connecticut (32-8)Kentucky60546South Carolina 2017George Mason 200671629
2013Louisville (35-5)*Michigan82766Maryland 2002Pittsburgh 200964559
2015WisconsinKentucky71647Texas 2003West Virginia 201073649
2008MemphisUCLA75687Kentucky 2012Davidson 2011746410
2007Ohio StateGeorgetown67607UCLA 2006Loyola-Chicago 2018706010
2012Kentucky (38-2)Kansas67598Auburn 2019VCU 2011615110
2012Kentucky (38-2)Louisville69618St. Joe's 2004West Virginia 2010807010
2011ButlerVCU70628San Diego St.Wichita St. 2013766610
2007Florida (35-5)Ohio State84759Wichita St. 2013Arizona 2015726111
2004Connecticut (33-6)Georgia Tech82739Marquette 2003Cincinnati 2002736211
2002Maryland (32-4)Kansas97889Duke 2010Georgia Tech 2004675611
2002IndianaOklahoma73649Wisconsin 2015Iowa 2002665412
2019Texas TechMichigan State615110Georgetown 2007Marquette 2003746212
2014Connecticut (32-8)Florida635310Michigan 2013Ohio St. 2007766412
2007Florida (35-5)UCLA766610Oklahoma 2016Oklahoma St. 2004756312
2003Syracuse (30-5)Texas958411Louisville 2013Connecticut 2004746113
2018MichiganLoyola695712Texas Tech 2019K-State 2008675413
2011Connecticut (32-9)Butler534112Auburn 2019LSU 2006695613
2002Maryland (32-4)Indiana645212Davidson 2011Florida 2006705416
2009North Carolina (34-4)Villanova836914Gonzaga 2017Memphis 2008654718
2006UCLALSU594514Florida 2006VCU 2011765818
2006Florida (33-6)George Mason735815Syracuse 2003Virginia 2019927220
2005IllinoisLouisville725715North Carolina 2005Wake Forest 2005856520
2018Villanova (36-4)Kansas957916Arizona 2015Loyola-Chicago 2018765521
2006Florida (33-6)UCLA735716Kansas 2008Texas 2003755421
2005North Carolina (33-4)Michigan State877116Kansas 2008Oklahoma 2016664422
2018Villanova (36-4)Michigan796217Connecticut 2004Butler 2010714724
2016North CarolinaSyracuse836617North Carolina 2005Georgia Tech 2004775324
2009North Carolina (34-4)Michigan State897217Connecticut 2004Creighton 2014866125
2009Michigan StateConnecticut897217Kentucky 2012LSU 2006835825
2008Kansas (37-3)North Carolina846618Villanova 2018Butler 2010896029
2015Duke (35-4)Michigan State816120Kansas 2008St. Joe's 2004835231
2010Duke (35-5)West Virginia785721Duke 2010Wake Forest 2005895732
2003KansasMarquette946133Virginia 2019Maryland 2002976433
2016Villanova (35-5)Oklahoma955144Gonzaga 2017UCLA 2006814833
74.064.39.875.462.812.6

Big 12 Wraps Up Opening Two Games

We finished getting two games a piece played by the Big 12, the final of our six conferences. Buddy Hield helped Oklahoma 2016 bounce back from being crushed by Kansas in their first game to beat Oklahoma State and nudge Jamaar Nelson from St. Joe's with 29.5 points per game. In fact the only player from our 48 great teams of the century averaging higher is Doug McDermott of Crighton with 31.5 through two games.  All games from all conferences are here.

RnkPoints Per GamePts
1Hield, Oklahoma 201629.58.01.01.0
2Nelson, St. Joe's 200429.03.05.00.5
3West, St. Joe's 200420.03.52.00.5
4Beasley, K-State 200817.08.00.52.0
4Butler, West Virginia 201017.08.00.50.5
RnkRebounds Per Game
1Thomas, Texas 200315.511.50.51.5
2Jones, St. Joe's 200410.511.00.02.0
3Jackson, Kansas 200816.58.50.50.5
4Beasley, K-State 200817.08.00.52.0
4Hield, Oklahoma 201629.58.01.01.0
RnkSteals Per Game
1Nelson, St. Joe's 200429.03.05.00.5
2Chalmers, Kansas 200813.03.04.51.5
2Culver, Texas Tech 201914.04.04.50.0
4Robinson, Kansas 200811.51.04.01.0
5Pullen, K-State 20087.52.03.50.0
RnkBlocks Per Game
1Arthur, Kansas 20085.58.01.03.0
2Beasley, K-State 200817.08.00.52.0
3Jones, St. Joe's 200410.511.00.02.0
4Jones, West Virginia 201012.58.00.02.0
5Four tied with 1.5 Bl

The final big game was Texas Tech beating K-State 2008 and Michael Beasley to join Kansas and St. Joe's at 2-0 - however if the playoffs were held today they would lose out on the second playoff spot by one point since they average winning by 7 and St. Joe's by 8.


Big 12 (A10)WLPtsPtsAllPt Dif
Kansas 200820714922
St. Joe's 20042080728
Texas Tech 20192070637
Oklahoma 2016116065-5
Texas 2003116470-6
Oklahoma St. 2004026774-7
West Virginia 2010026776-9
K-State 2008026373-10
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Saturday, June 8, 2019

Illinois 2005 and Purdue 2018 Lead Balanced Big Ten

Standings in the Big Ten after two games:

Big TenWLPtsPtsAllPt Dif
Purdue 20182075687.0
Illinois 20052077734.0
Wisconsin 20151168635.0
Michigan 20131172702.0
Michigan St. 20091174740.0
Iowa 2002116368-5.0
Indiana 2002027276-4.0
Ohio St. 2007027080-10.0

On the leaders board we listed the top 10 scorers and top 5 in other categories:

LeaderPtsRebStlBlks
Williams, Illinois 200524.5300.5
Lewis, Ohio St. 20072430.50.5
Lucas, Michigan St. 2009231.50.50.5
Evans, iowa 2002221320
Brown, Illinois 200520410.5
Edwards C, Purdue 201819.540.50
Jeffries, Indiana 20021851.50.5
Hardaway, Michigan 201319.560.50
Kaminsky, Wisconsin 2015188.502.5
LeaderPtsRebStlBlks
Evans, iowa 2002221320
Suton, Michigan St. 20091410.521
Oden, Ohio St. 200711.58.51.50.5
Kaminsky, Wisconsin 2015188.502.5
Edwards V, Purdue 201811.58.500
LeaderPtsRebStlBlks
Burke, Michigan 2013161.53.50.5
Summers, Michigan St. 20095.5630.5
Walton, Michigan St. 20092.52.530
Conley, Ohio St. 20071112.50
5 with 2.0 each
LeaderPtsRebStlBlks
Haarms, Purdue 2018126.503
Kaminsky, Wisconsin 2015188.502.5
Roe, Michigan St. 20094402
4 with 1.5 blocks

Pac-12: Zags Dominant Start, with TJ McConnell, Kawhi Leonard and Jordan Bell Battling for 2nd

TJ McConnell put up another big outing to take the lead in the Pac-12 in scoring at 20.5 points per game, and San Diego State's Kawhi Leonard (19.5 ppg for second and 10.0 rebounds per game for first) and Oregon's Jordan Bell (19.0 ppg, 8.5 rpg and 2.0 blocks for game all top 5) left the three teams within points of each other for second place in the Pac-12 of our Value Add Basketball Game.

Based on the tie-breaker of average point differential after the three teams 1-1 starts, Arizona 2015 (+5) is now second, a basket a game ahead of Oregon 2017 (+3) and then San Diego State 2011 (+1).

Pac 12 (WCC, MVC, CUSA)WLPtsPtsAllPt Dif
Gonzaga 201720734825.0
Arizona 20151169645.0
Oregon 20171174713.0
San Diego St.20111173721.0
Wichita St. 20131169690.0
Memphis 2008116068-8.0
UCLA 2006115971-12.0
Loyola-Chicago 2018025873-15.0

While the second place team makes the tournament, they must win two tournament games to make the Elite 8. Gonzaga's domination of UCLA and Memphis gives them not only the only 2-0 mark in our Pac-12, but also a +25 that would almost certainly leave them in 1st with the tiebreaker even if they drop to 2-1. However, there is plenty of time as the conference season is seven games. Here are the top five in each category. The second tie-breaker is points allowed, leaving Gonzaga in even better shape.


Points Per GamePtsRebStlsBlocks
1McConnell, Arizona 201520.5310
2Leonard, San Diego St. 201119.51010.5
3Bell, Oregon 2017198.512
3White, San Diego St. 20111960.50.5
5Williams-Goss, Gonzaga 201718.5510.5
Rebounds Per GamePtsRebStlsBlocks
1Leonard, San Diego St. 201119.51010.5
2Dorsey, Memphis 20088.5900
3Bell, Oregon 2017198.512
4Williams, Gonzaga 201718810.5
4Ingram, Loyola 201813800
Steals Per GamePtsRebStlsBlocks
1Williams, Wichita St. 2013702.50
2Johnson, Arizona 201511321.5
2Collison, UCLA 200691.520.5
2Mbaha Mouta, UCLA 200610720
2Douglas-Roberts, Memphis 200814.54.520
2Gay, San Diego St. 20116.5220
Blocks Per GamePtsRebStlsBlocks
1Collins, Gonzaga 20178.54.502.5
2Bell, Oregon 2017198.512
4Johnson, Arizona 201511321.5
4Hollis-Jefferson, Arizona 2015144.50.51.5
517 with 1.0 blocks per game1


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