42 Catholic Schools of 351 D1 Basketball Programs

Received a great question today - with two Catholic Universities in the Final Four - how many Division 1 programs are Catholic? The answer is 42 out of 351.

Rank	Team (42 Catholic Teams)	Catholic Affiliation	Conf
1	Villanova 1	Augustinian	BE
10	Gonzaga 4	Jesuit	WCC
15	Xavier 1	Jesuit	BE
25	Seton Hall 8	Diocesan	BE
30	Loyola Chicago 11	Jesuit	MVC
31	Creighton 8	Jesuit	BE
32	Saint Mary's	De La Salle Christian Brothers	WCC
35	Notre Dame	Holy Cross	ACC
56	Marquette	Jesuit	BE
64	Providence 10	Dominican	BE
68	St. Bonaventure 11	Franciscan	A10
76	Boston College	Jesuit	ACC
79	St. John's	Vincentian	BE
97	Georgetown	Jesuit	BE
101	DePaul	Vincentian	BE
116	Saint Joseph's	Jesuit	A10
130	San Diego	Independent	WCC
131	Canisius	Catholic	MAAC
139	Iona 15	Christian Brothers	MAAC
147	Saint Louis	Jesuit	A10
153	San Francisco	Jesuit	WCC
158	La Salle	De La Salle Christian Brothers	A10
173	Dayton	Society of Mary	A10
195	Seattle	Jesuit	WAC
202	Duquesne	Spiritans	A10
205	Niagara	Vincentian	MAAC
213	Fairfield	Jesuit	MAAC
216	St. Francis PA	Franciscan	NEC
217	Manhattan	De La Salle Christian Brothers	MAAC
218	Saint Peter's	Jesuit	MAAC
231	Loyola Marymount	Jesuit	WCC
240	Mount St. Mary's	Diocesan	NEC
272	Portland	Holy Cross	WCC
274	Santa Clara	Jesuit	WCC
290	Holy Cross	Holy Cross	Pat
293	Fordham	Jesuit	A10
302	Siena	Franciscan	MAAC
306	Sacred Heart	Diocesan	NEC
313	St. Francis NY	Franciscan	NEC
321	Detroit	Jesuit	Horz
322	Loyola MD	Jesuit	Pat
342	Incarnate Word	Sisters of Charity	Slnd

Bracket Goes for 3 of Final 4 & Possible 100th Percentile Sunday; Only 0.03% Picked Sister Jean's Loyola

The Value Add System adjusted for the Hottest Teams enters Sunday's game in the 97th percentile of 17.3 million brackets, and would be the best method presented if the prediction of Duke making the Final Four proves correct Sunday evening. The bracket could pick three of four Final Four teams if Duke AND Villanova win Sunday, as it already picked Michigan but was not one of the 0.03% of brackets (5,532 of 17,300,000) to pick Sister Jean's Loyola team.

If Duke loses, then the Value Add System that gave toss-up games to the worse seed as a minor upset is currently in the 98th percentile, would be the top bracket method.  Each system based on the Value Add Total of the players on the roster (adjustments for injuries and returning players) picked Villanova to win the title, so they would all drop several percentage points with a Villanova loss Sunday, but alternately shoot up among the elite brackets in the country if Nova won one or both in the Final Four. This bracket was in the 100th Percentage as the 72,000 best bracket of 17,300,000 until Texas Tech beat Purdue - a game the system would have predicted correctly based on Isaac Haas' injury if it happened before the bracket.

As you can see from the explanation before the tournament, the Value Add system rated Purdue three points better (+18.1 to +15.1) than Texas Tech when both were injury free at the start of the tournament.

However, Haas' injury lowered Purdue's Value Add/Injury rating by 4.72 to 13.38  to drop behind Texas Tech and would have made Texas Tech the pick if the injury happened before brackets had to be completed. (Haas' Value Add of 6.72 minus 2.00 for the 7th best player on the team estimates him leaving costs Purdue 4.72 points per game in Value.)

While all Value Add systems predict a Villanova win at 2 p.m. ET, the other two variations disagree on the Duke-Kansas game later Sunday. The system based on the better-experienced guards goes with Kansas and Value Add All-American Devonte Graham, while the system based on the Top 3 Value Add players agrees with the Hottest system above in picking Duke. These systems were all much more accurate than the alternative systems based on coaching experience and potential mismatches.

All brackets were put in this "8th methods" bracket so anyone could go to ESPN to see how the Value Add system performed against the other 17.3 million brackets.

Friday Update

Friday morning additional note: The upset bracket referenced below moved up to 118,000 of 17.3 million yesterday and goes up higher with wins by Villanova, Purdue and/or Kansas tonight. The straight Value Add with injuries factored has the same three picks and is slightly behind in the 94th percentile. The bracket adjusted Value Add for which team is hotter is already in the 98th percentile at 373,000th place, but would catch the top bracket if Duke wins tonight - while it also has Villanova and Purdue by not Kansas.)

Thursday Headline and Original Post: WVU-Nova Could Determine 5-Way Race for MVP; 99th Percentile Bracket Says Nova over Kentucky

In response to a request by a Senator at a speech for www.takeback.org yesterday, below give results of the Value Add basketball bracket that is in the 99th percentile with chances for wins in 12 of the remaining 15 games including a Villanova win over Kentucky in the national championship. First, I want to detail the incredibly close 5-way race for the Most Valuable Player in the country from the 4,068 on the newly updated www.valueaddbasketball.com site.

Arizona's Deandre Ayton is first, but like Cincinnati's Gary Clark he can only wait to see how three others still playing do on the offensive and defensive side of the ball because right now those five are within 0.72 points of value per game. Here is the list, and note that while Saint Mary's Jock Landale is in the NIT, Villanova's Mikal Bridges and West Virginia's Jevon Carter could shoot up in the rankings if either can dominate against the other in Friday's Sweet 16 game:

Rnk	Player	Team	Next	Value Add
1	Deandre Ayton #13	Arizona	Done	11.32
2	Jock Landale #34	St. Mary's	NIT vs Utah-Wed	11.00
3	Gary Clark #11	Cincinnati	Done	10.80
4	Mikal Bridges #25	Villanova	NCAA vs WVU-Fri	10.74
5	Jevon Carter #2	West Virginia	NCAA vs Vill-Fri	10.60

Carter Dominated Defensively in Round 2

Everyone else looks at offensive stats first, so let's first look at the defense. Carter's led a West Virginia defense with four defensive rebounds and five steals, as they help Marshall to only 86% of their normal offensive production (they normally score 1.10 points per possession, and only scored on 71 of 75 possessions for 0.95 points per possession - so 0.95 divided by 1.10 is 0.86. If Carter can perform anywhere near that level against Villanova - the top offense in the country with 1.20 points per trip - then his defensive rating would improve enough to help him move up into the top three.

Bridges led and even more impressive defensive effort as Villanova held an Alabama team to only 58 points on 66 trips, which is only 0.81 of their normal offensive output of 1.09 per trip. Bridges did not have any steals, and with two blocked shots and defensive rebounds ranks just below Carter for the game's defensive effort, but we are talking an A+ vs an A.

Landale had a terrible NIT performance against Washington. Not only did Washington run all over the Saint Mary's defense that he anchors, scoring 81 points in 64 trips down the court, but Landale did not block a shot or grab a steal and only recorded one defensive rebound.

Wednesday Landale needs to redeem himself on defense against a Utah offense that is even better than Washington's (1.12 per trip vs. 1.07 per trip), while Carter tries to stop the best offense in the national and Bridges takes on a solid offense from West Virginia. Here is the summary of the defensive grades for all three players and the challenge ahead:

Best Defense			Def Effort	Opp Off	How Good	Def Reb	Blk	Stl
Jock Landale	vs. Wash	F	1.27	1.07	1.18	1	0	0
Wednesday	vs. Utah			1.12
Mikal Bridges	vs. Ala	A	0.88	1.09	0.81	2	2	0
Friday	vs. WVU			1.20
Jevon Carter	vs. Marsh	A+	0.95	1.10	0.86	4	0	5
Friday	vs. Vill			1.28

Landale was solid on offense, with 7 of 12 shooting and five offensive rebounds to be worth 1.52 points per time he had the ball - however he did not have the ball that much and his 14 points performance was actually not as strong as Carter running the offense with the same 1.52 rating, or even Bridges 1.24 but handling the ball a lot more to dominate the second half against Alabama.

Carter hit 5 of 7 three-pointers en route to 28 points, and Bridges scored only one first half point before taking over to finish with 5 of 8 three-pointers for 23 points. Once again an A+ for Carter and an A for Bridges, while Landale was very efficient but just not enough touches.

Best Offense		Off Grade	Offense	Opposing Def	How Good?
Jock Landale	vs. Wash	B	1.52	1.00	1.52
Wednesday	vs. Utah			1.00
Mikal Bridges	vs. Ala	A	1.24	0.95	1.31
Friday	vs. WVU			0.97
Jevon Carter	vs. Marsh	A+	1.52	1.03	1.48
Friday	vs. Vill			0.95

Put it all together, and on both offense and defense, Carter and Bridges are surging heading into their showdown Friday, while Landale needs to get the ball more on offense and play tougher defense tonight to stay ahead of them in this 5-player race to determine who is the Most Valuable Player in the country.

99th Percentile Bracket

My Tuesday speech asking Senators to pass a resolution was pre-empted by a Senator shouting out, “Don’t tell me you had a basketball bracket in the 99^th percentile after all these upsets!” Yes, here is the link to the www.valueaddbasketball.com bracket that is currently 150,000^th out of 17.3 million and could still be correct in 12 of the final 15 games.

So here it is. Among the possible methods for approaching a bracket, we noted the most important under the header, “March Madness: Top Team Value Adds Adjusted for Injuries, Returning Players (Most Important).” This looked at all key injuries and chose games based on the Value Add of the current roster and then provided two columns with suggested picks:

1. Overall Value/Upsets went with the higher Value Add and is currently in the 88^th percentile, and
2. “Take Upsets in tight” gave any toss-up games – within a point either way – to the worse seed to account for the “hunter” having an edge over the hunted in the toss-up games.

We plugged each option into an “8 methods” group in the ESPN bracket challenge to provide an independent tracking of where these Value Add-based and competing methods stacked up against the other 17.3 million brackets submitted.

The first column put your bracket in the 89^th percentile – with 24 of 32 in the first round and 8 of 16 picks in the second round.

However, the second column is above the 99^th percentile with 24 of 32 in the first round but 10 of 16 in the second round for 440 points and another 1120 potential points left due to 12 more potential wins in 15 games culminating with a predicted 76-71 Villanova win over Kentucky in the championship.

We provided these three Value Add-based brackets along with several other methods in a Breitbart piece, and then in the link to that story to adjust for late-breaking injuries before the tournament started, and then plugged the final picks into the ESPN group, where you can see the rankings after future games are completed.

RANK	Pudner Value Add	R64	R32	Champ	PPR	TOTAL	PCT
1	Upset if lower seed close	240	200	Villanova	1120	440	99.1
2	Hottest Teams	240	180	Villanova	920	420	96.2
3	Experienced PG/SG	230	180	Villanova	840	410	93.2
4	Value Add All-Amer, Top 3	240	160	Villanova	800	400	88.8
4	Value Add/Kenpom/injuries	240	160	Villanova	840	400	88.8
6	Pudner's MASTER COMPOSITE	210	160	Villanova	800	370	65.7
7	NBA Talent	210	140	Duke	1160	350	43.8
7	Best Coaches Pull Thru	190	160	Villanova	720	350	43.8
9	Mismatch (3pts, OR, Stl)	200	80	Villanova	800	280	8.3

The two competing bracket methods that did not work were based on assuming more experience coaches can overcome a team with a little more Value Add (just below average at 44^th percentile) and even worse seeing if a mismatch in one component of the game such as three-pointers, steals or offensive rebounds could lead to upsets (a pathetic 8^th percentile). That mismatch also held the Composite down to the 66^th percentile.

Relying on the most NBA talent yielded a below average bracket (44^th percentile), HOWEVER, it could improve dramatically if it’s prediction of Duke defeating Kentucky in the championship holds true.

The other three adjustments to the bracket based on Value Add after injuries have been very strong, with a tweak for the Hottest teams currently in the 96^th percentile, and tweaks for more experienced guards in the 93^rd percentile, and finally going with the team with the three best Value Add players in the 89^th percentile.

The lesson once again is to rely heavily upon Value Add for your brackets – and while tweaks based on experienced guards or finishing the season strong are fine – adjusting for coaches or style of play will only hurt your bracket or worse yet your favorite conference generally costs you wins. Stick with Value Add.

As for the Value Add bracket that is behind on 150,000 brackets, and ahead of 17.1 million brackets for the 99.1 percentile, here are the 12 wins still possible from the final 15 games.

South
Kentucky 3 More (vs. Kansas State, Gonzaga-Michigan, then Final 4)
(Did not have Loyola or Nevada)

West
Gonzaga 1 more (vs. Florida State)
Michigan 2 more (vs. Texas A&M then Gonzaga-FSU)

East
Villanova 4 more (vs. West Virginia, Texas Tech-Purdue, then 2 in Final Four)
Purdue 1 more (vs. Texas Tech)

Midwest
Kansas 1 more (vs. Clemson)
(Did not have Duke or Syracuse)

Bracket Factoring Injuries Based on Value Add Best Option in 92nd Percentile

Of the tens of millions of completed brackets, only 2.2 percent predicted 16th-seed UMBC would upset Virginia, who was easily the top choice (20.1% of brackets to win all six games and the title. The next most popular choice was Villanova, which was picked by eight of our nine brackets and 15.4% of all brackets to take the title. (Note after email update: We updated the screen below after the first 2nd round game, Villanova's blowout of Alabama, which put the four brackets mentioned into the 93rd percentile. Note that ESPN counts 2nd round wins as 20 points each, so that win gave those four brackets 260 points in 33 games, which is ahead of 16.1 million brackets but behind 1.2 million brackets.)

You are in the 92nd percentile of all brackets with 24 of 32 correct picks if you used one of our four brackets posted before the tournament based on; 1) Value Add/Kenpom/injuries, 2) All-American/Top 3 Value Add Players, 3) Upset only if lower seed within a point of Value Add, or 4) Hottest teams. Of these, the bracket that went with the best Value Add of healthy players and limited upset picks to when the worse seed was within a point in Value Add of the favorite is the best with the potential for up to 1580 points in the ESPN leaders list.

This is because, despite Virginia's loss, the other 15 Sweet 16 teams, seven Elite 8 teams, and three Final Four teams are all alive (see all picks below from the prediction post before the tournament.

If you went with the bracket that adjusted for the experience of the team's guards, then you are only one worse with 23 of 32 correct to place in the 81st percentile.

However, if you were lazy and just went with the first "composite" bracket or based on the most NBA talent, then you are just below average with 21 correct picks for the 43rd percentile.

The two bad brackets this year were the one based on teams pulling upsets if they had a mismatch (20 correct for 28th percentile) and the bracket that relied on the most experienced coaches to pull off close upsets (19 correct for 17th percentile).

Here are the actual results and predictions

West 8-0, all Sweet 16, Elite 8 and Final Four Still Alive

Midwest 7-1, all Sweet 16, Elite 8 and Final 4 still alive

South 3-5, Except for UVa all Sweet 16, Elite 8 and Final 4 Still Alive

East 6-2, All Sweet 16, Elite 8 and Final 4 Still Alive

All that being said, the best bracket I saw was from my Director of Scheduling, who started my day by saying, "I didn't pick Seton Hall because I had never heard of them, but I had the others right." Sure enough, I looked at her bracket and she was 15-1 despite only watching youth basketball games with her son this year :-) I will figure out her system next year.

Experienced Guards & Hottest Teams Brackets the Best on Day 1

The picks from the 9 bracket options in the previous post were plugged into an "8 methods" league (the 9th is a composite) so that we could track which was most effective.

After one day, the system that adjusts for the most experienced guards was the best method - picking 14 of 16 games correctly to land in the 99th percentile. The other big winner was the system that adjusted for the hottest teams, which picked 13 of 16 games correctly to land in the 92.7 percentile.

Three other systems were above average with 12 of 16 correct picks, including the system that adjusts www.kenpom.com based on injuries, the system that picks a worse seed if they are only slightly behind, and the system that goes with the team with the best three Value Add players. However, that last system was incredibly damaged with the Arizona loss, as that was the only of the 9 systems that picked Arizona to win more than one or two games total. That loss is actually good for the other 8 methods because most other people had Arizona winning a number of games.

The other four systems finished just below average with 11 of 16 correct picks (the average national bracket was between 11 and 12 wins). Neither the potential NBA talent or the more experienced tournament coaches did that well. Both the composite system and the Mismatch system nearly registered a huge win having picked the 14th seed Stephen F. Austin in what I called my most stupid pick, and SFA led until there were four minutes left in the game.

If anyone based their bracket based on believing the Pac12 would make a run - they had a terrible day with all three Pac12 teams losing to teams from New York. Included was 4-seed Arizona losing by 21 points to Buffalo. ACC fans also went 1-3 on Thursday and will need to hope for wins from some of their five teams still in action tomorrow or risk repeating last year when only one of nine ACC teams made the Sweet 16 (though that one UNC did win the title).

The Big East and SEC both have four games tomorrow to try to build on their 2-0 and 4-0 starts Thursday, respectively.

March Madness 2018 Bracket Master of All Suggested Picks (Master)

Here are the recommended bracket picks with Villanova beating Virginia 61-59 in the title game. After the bracket see explanations and 8 other methods for making picks (none of Wednesday's injury upsets should change picks due to strong back-ups as Houston's VanBeck 2.34 Value Add and IL-Chic's Dixson 0.00 are out, while Kansas' Azubuike 6.53 is questionable). We covered Hunter Tuesday by updating injuries here. Three years ago the Washington Post noted I rated Justin Anderson as indispensable to UVa's run, but this year they are deep enough to potentially make the run with Hunter out.

Bracket
(a decimal.5 after a number can be ignored, but it indicates it was a very close call and the team could be given one more win than indicated. The first number to the right of the team is the composite recommendation, with the other bracket scenarios given as further options.)

See Injury Updates from Tuesday 11 p.m. which results in adjustments below. Injuries to Miami, Duke, UNC, and Virginia could result in extra wins for Loyola, Michigan State, Michigan/Gonzaga and Kentucky/Arizona (respectively).

Seed	South	Total	Value Add	Top 3	NBA	Upset	Mismatch	Hot	PG/SG	Coach
1	Virginia	5	5	2	2	3	5	5	5	5
16	UMBC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Creighton	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1
9	Kansas St.	0.5	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0
5	Kentucky	2	1	0	5	5	1	2	1	2
12	Davidson	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Arizona	1.5	2	5	1.5	1	2	1	2	1
13	Buffalo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	South	Total	Value Add	Top 3	NBA	Upset	Mismatch	Hot	PG/SG	Coach
6	Miami FL	0	1	0	2.5	1	0	0	0	1
11	Loyola Chicago	1	0	1	0	0	1	2	2	0
3	Tennessee	2	2	2	1	2	2	1	1	2
14	Wright St.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Nevada	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
10	Texas	1	1	0	3	1	1	1	0	1
2	Cincinnati	3	3	3	1	3	3	3	3	3
15	Georgia St.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Seed	West	Total	Value Add	Top 3	NBA	Upset	Mismatch	Hot	PG/SG	Coach
1	Xavier	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	1	2
16	North Carolina Central	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Texas Southern
8	Missouri	0	0	0	2.5	0	0	1	2	1
9	Florida St.	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
5	Ohio St.	1	1	4		1	1	1	1	1
12	S. Dakota St.				1
4	Gonzaga	4	4	1	4	3	3	3	3	3
13	UNC Greensboro
Seed	West	Total	Value Add	Top 3	NBA	Upset	Mismatch	Hot	PG/SG	Coach
6	Houston	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1
11	South Dakota St.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Michigan	2	3	2	2	4	1	4	2	2
14	Montana	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Texas A&M	0	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0
10	Providence	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1
2	North Carolina	3	2	3	3	2	4	2	4	4
15	Lipscomb	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Seed	East	Total	Value Add	Top 3	NBA	Upset	Mismatch	Hot	PG/SG	Coach
1	Villanova	6	6	6	4	6	6	6	6	6
16	LIU Brooklyn
16	Radford	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Virginia Tech	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1
9	Alabama	0	0	0	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
5	West Virginia	2	2	2	1	2	0	2	2	2
12	Murray St.	0.5	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0
4	Wichita St.	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1
13	Marshall	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Seed	East	Total	Value Add	Top 3	NBA	Upset	Mismatch	Hot	PG/SG	Coach
6	Florida	1	1	1	3	1	0	2	2	0
11	St. Bonav.	0.5	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2
11	UCLA
3	Texas Tech	0	2	2	1.5	2	0	1	1	1
14	Stephen F. Austin	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0
7	Arkansas	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	1
10	Butler	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0
2	Purdue	3	3	3	2.5	3	3	3	3	3
15	Cal St. Fullerton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Seed	Midwest	Total	Value Add	Top 3	NBA	Upset	Mismatch	Hot	PG/SG	Coach
1	Kansas	3	3	3	3	3	1	1	4	3
16	Penn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Seton Hall	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	1
9	North Carolina St.	1.5	0	0	1.5	0	2	3	0	0
5	Clemson	1.5	1	2	1.5	2	1	2	2	1
12	New Mexico St.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Auburn	2	2	1	2	1	3	1	1	2
13	College of Charleston	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Seed	Midwest	Total	Value Add	Top 3	NBA	Upset	Mismatch	Hot	PG/SG	Coach
6	TCU	0.5	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	1
11	Arizona St.	1	1	0	1.5	1	1	0	0	0
11	Syracuse	1	1	0	1.5	1	1	0	0	0
3	Michigan St.	4	4	2	2	4	2	2	2	4
14	Bucknell	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Rhode Island	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0
10	Oklahoma	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	1
2	Duke	2	2	4	6	2	4	4	3	2
15	Iona	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

The 2018 Value Add bracket based on www.valueaddbasketball.com projects Villanova over Virginia for the title with Duke and UNC also in the Final Four. All bracket picks appear at the top of this blog. (Photo above from CBS Sports 247 site showing Nova star Mikal Bridges.)

However, variations listed in the other numbers under each heading of the table project Arizona and Ohio State to join the Final Four if it comes down to the best dominant three-player comb on the court (third number left of each team by each team). If it comes down to the most NBA talent (fourth number left of each team) then Duke over Kentucky could follow a Final Four with Villanova and Gonzaga. Michigan is the hottest team (third number from the far right), and Kansas has the best-experienced guard play for a Final Four run (2nd column from the right).

The main system clinched a victory over President Obama's (who knows his basketball) last bracket by the Elite 8 in 2016. In 2017, the Value Add All-Americans hit the 99th percentile by picking the Gonzaga vs. UNC championship game.

That being said, the 2015 bracket was a disaster, and everyone from Nate Silver to the casual fan knows that one of the many fans who take wild guesses will stumble onto wins that neither Nate, me or any basketball expert would logically choose.

Here is the story at John Dodds' 247 sites for CBS Sports as we unveil the bracket predictions at the top of this blog.

While some have credited following my picks for winning their brackets, I accept no responsibility for anyone following these picks and being destroyed in their pool :-) Like a stockbroker warns - past results do not guarantee future performance.

Nonetheless, here is the comprehensive breakdown of the factors we consider and the links to further explanation on each.

Those numbers above are based on consideration of these factors:

The total composite (1st column left of the team) Value Add projection based on all of the below is for Villanova over Virginia, UNC and Duke also in Final Four. The variations based on components are:

1. Value Add adjusted for Injuries/Returning Players (2nd column) - By far the most important single factor is ... how good the team on the floor is today. This starts with a fraction of the www.kenpom.com rating and uses Value Add to increase that rating for returning players (e.g. Michael Porter Jr. for Missouri) and subtracting for players injured with strong replacements (Auburn, Clemson, and Nevada hardest hit). Based on this the final would be Virginia over Villanova with UNC and Duke in the Final Four.

a. Upsets (5th column left of the team). This is a variation on above, except it takes a chance on the worse seed whenever they are within one point of the favorite in the Value Add Adjusted for injuries. Villanova over Virginia with Duke and Michigan in the Final Four.

2. NBA Talent.  (4th column left of the team) Duke over Kentucky, with Villanova and Gonzaga in the Final Four.

3. All American/Top 3 dominant players (3rd column left of the team). See also the original All-American Announcement). Villanova over Arizona with Duke and Ohio State in the Final Four.

4. Upset Mismatches. (6th column left of the team) Chances for upsets due to one of these three areas of mismatches; Three-point Shooting, Steals or Offensive Rebounding. A lot more first-round upsets, but still Virginia over Villanova with Duke and UNC in the Final Four in the end.

5. Coaching/Senior Guards/Hot Streaks. A final piece covers three other factors:

a. Coaching (furthest column right). Villanova over Virginia with UNC and Duke in the Final Four.

b. Experienced Guards (2nd column from right). Virginia over Villanova with UNC and Kansas in the Final Four.

c. Hot Teams (third column from right). Virginia over Villanova with Duke and Michigan in the Final Four.

To go beyond the Final Four scenarios spelled out by each method, the number by each team in each scenario indicates how many times you should write in the team name. For example, the top team listed Virginia is either the National Champion (6 lines) or Runner Up (5 lines) in all but two scenarios. In these two scenarios, Virginia would lose after two games to either Arizona or Kentucky. If it comes down to the most dominant trio on the court they would lose to Arizona (whose top three players are better than Virginia's top three players), and if it came down to the most future NBA talent dominating then they would lose to Kentucky after two wins.

March Madness: Coaching, Senior Guards, and Hot Streaks

The final factors to consider when filling out your bracket are the experience of the team's coach in making NCAA runs, if they have upperclassmen point guard who can steady the team under the pressure of the tournament, and if the team closed the season playing well or not.

The first three numbers left of the team gives the prediction of how many games they would win with an emphasis on any of these three areas.

The first number (Hot) is based on how many they would win based on how "hot" they are which corresponds to the movement in the team's KenPom rating since Feb. 1. Virginia projects as the national champion (6 lines) based on their overall top rating plus being hot as they moved from 2nd to 1st in KenPom.

The second column (PG/SG)  is wins adjusted for the experience of the Point Guard (primarily) and the Shooting Guard (secondary). Virginia projects as the National Champion under that scenario as well, with their Point Guard Hall (senior) and shooting guard Guy (sophomore) getting a "7 of 10" for the experience.

The third column (Coach) projects Virginia being nudged out by Villanova. Virginia has small edge over Villanova overall, but Jay Wright has gone further than Tony Bennett so far with the national title two years ago, so Villanova gets a slight advantage on this category.

(Marquette Note: Andrew Rowsey's status as a senior point guard (6 points) and Markus Howard's as a sophomore shooting guard (1 point) gives Marquette a 7 of 10 rating on the experienced backcourt. That would project to be a big enough gap to shift one regoinal match against a 6-seed (Miami with freshman point guard Lykes and sophomore shooting guard Vasiljevic) for a win. Since February 1 Marquette dropped from 50th to 53rd to rate as slighly cold, and Coach Wojo's inexperience would not have provided a win based on either of those two categories).

Seed	South	Hot	PG/SG	Coach	KenPom since Feb		PG/SG Exp		Coach Tour Exp
1	Virginia	6	6	5	2nd to 1st	8	Hall & Guy	7	Tony Bennett	6
16	UMBC				192nd to 184th	6	Maura & Lyles	9	Ryan Odom	1
8	Creighton		1	1	23rd to 27th	4	Foster & Mintz	8	Greg McDermott	7
9	Kansas St.	1			42nd to 44th	5	Stokes & Diarra	5	Bruce Weber	7
5	Kentucky	2	1	2	27th to 18th	9	Gilgeous-Alexander & Green	0	John Calipari	9
12	Davidson				70th to 43rd	9	Gudmundsson & Grady	2	Bob McKillop	6
4	Arizona	1	2	1	20th to 21st	5	Jackson-Cartwright & Trier	9	Sean Miller	8
13	Buffalo				81st to 77th	6	Clark & Caruthers	8	Nate Oats	3
	South	Hot	PG/SG	Coach	KenPom since Feb		PG/SG Exp		Coach Tour Exp
6	Miami FL			1	32nd to 36th	4	Lykes & Vasiljevic	1	Jim Larranaga	7
11	Loyola Chicago	2	2		55th to 41st	8	Custer & Richardson	7	Porter Moser	2
3	Tennessee	1	1	2	8th to 11th	5	Bone & Bowden	3	Rick Barnes	8
14	Wright St.				121st to 135th	3	Gentry & Hughes	4	Scott Nagy	6
7	Nevada		1		17th to 24th	3	Martin & Cooke	7	Eric Musselman	2
10	Texas	1		1	47th to 39th	7	Coleman & Jacob	1	Shaka Smart	9
2	Cincinnati	3	3	3	5th to 4th	7	Broome & Cumberland	5	Mick Cronin	7
15	Georgia St.				116th to 96th	7	Simonds & Williams	6	Ron Hunter	6
Seed	West	Hot	PG/SG	Coach	KenPom since Feb		PG/SG Exp		Coach Tour Exp
1	Xavier	2	1	2	13th to 14th	5	Goodin & Mancura	5	Chris Mack	8
16	North Carolina Central				281st to 309th	3	Perkins & Gardner	0	LeVelle Moton	3
16	Texas Southern				232nd to 249th	3	Jefferson & McClelland	2	Mike Davis	8
8	Missouri	1	2	1	43rd to 38th	7	Geist & Robertson	7	Cuonzo Martin	7
9	Florida St.				25th to 35th	3	Forrest & Savoy	4	Leonard Hamilton	7
5	Ohio St.	1	1	1	13th to 15th	4	Jackson & Williams	7	Chris Holtmann	7
12	San Diego St.				63rd to 50th	7	Watson & Kell	7	Brian Dutcher	0
4	Gonzaga	3	3	3	7th to 8th	5	Perkins & Melson	7	Mark Few	8
13	UNC Greensboro				115th to 82nd	9	Troy & Miller	4	Wes Miller	0
Seed	West	Hot	PG/SG	Coach	KenPom since Feb		PG/SG Exp		Coach Tour Exp
6	Houston	1	1	1	38th to 17th	9	Gray & Robinson	8	Kelvin Sampson	8
11	South Dakota St.				84th to 75th	7	Key & Jenkins	4	T.J. Otzelberger	3
3	Michigan	4	2	2	23rd to 10th	10	Simpson & Abdur-Rahkman	6	John Beilein	9
14	Montana				71st to 71st	5	Rorie & Oguine	6	Travis DeCuire	0
7	Texas A&M	1			33rd to 30th	5	Starks & Gilder	2	Billy Kennedy	6
10	Providence		1	1	61st to 63rd	6	Cartwright & Lindsey	10	Ed Cooley	8
2	North Carolina	2	4	4	14th to 7th	8	Berry & Williams	9	Roy Williams	10
15	Lipscomb				179th to 165th	6	Cooper & Buckland	3	Casey Alexander	0
Seed	East	Hot	PG/SG	Coach	KenPom since Feb		PG/SG Exp		Coach Tour Exp
1	Villanova	5	5	6	1st to 2nd	5	Brunson & Booth	7	Jay Wright	9
16	LIU Brooklyn				284th to 251st	6	Batts & Agosto	3	Derek Kellogg	4
16	Radford				176th to 170th	5	Jones & Fields	1	Mike Jones	0
8	Virginia Tech	1	1	1	39th to 32nd	7	Robinson & Wilson	7	Buzz Williams	8
9	Alabama				60th to 51st	7	Sexton & Petty	1	Avery Johnson	4
5	West Virginia	2	2	2	18th to 13th	7	Carter & Miles	10	Bob Huggins	10
12	Murray St.				60th to 59th	5	Morant & Stark	3	Matt McMahon	0
4	Wichita St.	1	1	1	20th to 20th	5	Frankamp & Reaves	7	Gregg Marshall	8
13	Marshall				131st to 114th	7	Elmore & West	4	Dan D'Antoni	0
Seed	East	Hot	PG/SG	Coach	KenPom since Feb		PG/SG Exp		Coach Tour Exp
6	Florida	2	2		28th to 23rd	7	Chiozza & Allen	9	Michael White	5
11	St. Bonaventure			2	75th to 69th	6	Adams & Mobley	10	Mark Schmidt	3
11	UCLA			2	54th to 48th	6	Holiday & Ali	5	Steve Alford	8
3	Texas Tech	1	1	1	12th to 12th	5	Evans & Culver	7	Chris Beard	4
14	Stephen F. Austin				126th to 111th	7	Augustin & Bogues	4	Kyle Keller	0
7	Arkansas		1	1	48th to 37th	7	Macon & Beard	9	Mike Anderson	9
10	Butler	1			21st to 25th	5	Baldwin & Jorgensen	4	LaVall Jordan	0
2	Purdue	3	3	3	3rd to 5th	5	Edwards & Thompson	6	Matt Painter	8
15	Cal St. Fullerton				171 to 153rd	7	Smith & Allman	4	Dedrique Taylor	0
Seed	Midwest	Hot	PG/SG	Coach	KenPom since Feb		PG/SG Exp		Coach Tour Exp
1	Kansas	1	4	3	7th to 9th	6	Graham & Newman	8	Bill Self	9
16	Penn				152nd to 127th	8	Foreman & Woods	8	Steve Donahue	7
8	Seton Hall		1	1	29th to 26th	6	Carrington & Powell	6	Kevin Willard	6
9	North Carolina St.	3			64th to 42nd	9	Johnson & Beverly	2	Kevin Keatts	6
5	Clemson	2	2	1	16th to 19th	4	Mitchell & Reed	6	Brad Brownell	6
12	New Mexico St.				40th to 55th	3	Harris & N'Dir	4	Chris Jans	0
4	Auburn	1	1	2	9th to 16th	2	Harper & Brown	4	Bruce Pearl	10
13	College of Charleston				147th to 120th	8	Chealey & Pointer	8	Earl Grant	0
Seed	Midwest	Hot	PG/SG	Coach	KenPom since Feb		PG/SG Exp		Coach Tour Exp
6	TCU	1	1	1	19th to 22nd	4	Robinson & Bane	5	Jamie Dixon	8
11	Arizona St.				27th to 45th	1	Martin & Evans	3	Bobby Hurley	7
11	Syracuse				47th to 54th	3	Howard & Battle	5	Jim Boeheim	10
3	Michigan St.	2	2	2	6th to 6th	5	Winston & McQuaid	4	Tom Izzo	10
14	Bucknell				107th to 100th	6	Brown & Mackenzie	6	Nathan Davis	3
7	Rhode Island	1	1		34th to 49th	3	Garrett & Dowtin	7	Dan Hurley	7
10	Oklahoma			1	26th to 47th	0	Young & McGusty	1	Lon Kruger	8
2	Duke	4	3	4	4th to 3rd	6	DuVal & Allen	3	Mike Krzyzewski	10
15	Iona				123rd to 134th	4	"McGill & Casimir
"	6	Tim Cluess	5

March Madness: All-Americans and 3 Star Domination

Al McGuire said a team needed three-and-a-half stars to win a championship. It is hard for us to measure the hustler who can be the third star, but sometimes the team with the most dominant All-American level player on the court or a team with three great options as stars can beat more balanced teams with a longer bench during March Madness.

The Value Add All-American list was the most accurate last year, and if that happened this year it would be Villanova over Arizona in the title game - who feature the two most dominant All-Americans in the tournament and the most dominant trio.

Villanova (26.98 Value Add of top 3 stars) is led by the 1st team All-American swingman Mikal Bridges (10.75) and just missed a second All-American in the close race between four point guards including Jalen Brunson (11th best in the country, 9.59 Value Add). Omari Spillman (6.64, 109th of more than 4,000 players) gives Nova a third player in the top three percent of all players.

Arizona (24.63) is led by the only player in the tournament more dominant than Bridges this year - center Deandre Ayton (11.64 Value Add) who scored over 30 points in consecutive Pac-12 games to surge into 1st at www.valueaddbasketball.com. Arizona was the only team with two All-Americans Allonzo Trier, though he fell off slightly during the conference tournament. They then have the unbelievable luxury of a second dominant seven-footer who can be on the court at the same time as Ayton in Dusan Ristic.

The other Final Four teams under this scenario would be Ohio State (All-American Keita Bates-Diop, 114th ranked Kaleb Wesson and 218th ranked Jae'Sean Tate) and Duke only team with three players in the top 1% in Marvin Bagley, Wendall Carter and Grayson Allen).

(Marquette note, Marquette's trio has a total Value Add of 20.22, which would have been strong enough to win two games in the South before a loss to Cincinnati, two wins in the West until losing to Ohio State or one win in the east before losing to Texas Tech. The only bracket in which Marquette's trio would not calculate as an 11-seed is the Midwest, where they would have been projected to lose to TCU.)

Seed	South	Top 3 Value Add	Top 3 wins	Mismatch
1	Virginia	23.76	2	6
16	UMBC	6.27
8	Creighton	17.46		1
9	Kansas St.	20.57	1
5	Kentucky	17.99		1
12	Davidson	21.52	1
4	Arizona	24.63	5	2
13	Buffalo	16.85
	South	Top 3 Value Add	Top 3 wins	Mismatch
6	Miami FL	15.96
11	Loyola Chicago	16.63	1	1
3	Tennessee	18.33	2	2
14	Wright St.	11.56
7	Nevada	20.03	1
10	Texas	16.95		1
2	Cincinnati	22.86	3	3
15	Georgia St.	13.03
Seed	West	Top 3 Value Add	Top 3 wins	Mismatch
1	Xavier	19.39	1	2
16	North Carolina Central	6.43
16	Texas Southern	8.29
8	Missouri	19.47	2
9	Florida St.	15.24		1
5	Ohio St.	22.22	4	1
12	San Diego St.	15.42
4	Gonzaga	18.38	1	3
13	UNC Greensboro	6
Seed	West	Top 3 Value Add	Top 3 wins	Mismatch
6	Houston	19.71	1	2
11	South Dakota St.	16.19
3	Michigan	20.11	2	1
14	Montana	19.34
7	Texas A&M	18.92	1
10	Providence	12.86		1
2	North Carolina	21.84	3	4
15	Lipscomb	14.18
Seed	East	Top 3 Value Add	Top 3 wins	Mismatch
1	Villanova	26.98	6	5
16	LIU Brooklyn
16	Radford	11.91
8	Virginia Tech	16.35		1
9	Alabama	18.23	1
5	West Virginia	22.21	2
12	Murray St.	20.33		2
4	Wichita St.	18.31	1	1
13	Marshall	16.76
Seed	East	Top 3 Value Add	Top 3 wins	Mismatch
6	Florida	18.72	1
11	St. Bonaventure	15.7		1
11	UCLA	18.33		1
3	Texas Tech	22.41	2
14	Stephen F. Austin	11.77		2
7	Arkansas	20.02	1	1
10	Butler	17.67
2	Purdue	22.78	3	3
15	Cal St. Fullerton	14.47
Seed	Midwest	Top 3 Value Add	Top 3 wins	Mismatch
1	Kansas	21.99	3	1
16	Penn	10.53
8	Seton Hall	18.54	1
9	North Carolina St.	16.25		2
5	Clemson	19.39	2	1
12	New Mexico St.	15.72
4	Auburn	16.5	1	3
13	College of Charleston	14.51
Seed	Midwest	Top 3 Value Add	Top 3 wins	Mismatch
6	TCU	22.41	1
11	Arizona St.	15.81		1
11	Syracuse	18.41	1	1
3	Michigan St.	21.63	2	2
14	Bucknell	17.04
7	Rhode Island	15.74		1
10	Oklahoma	18.48	1
2	Duke	25.79	4	4
15	Iona	8.64

The college basketball world spent half a season wondering, "Is there any way to stop Trae Young," and now the same people are asking, "Is there any way to stop Deandre Ayton?" While Young led the www.valueaddbasketball.com ratings most of the year with his Steph Curry-like range and release for Oklahoma, it has been Arizona's Deandre Ayton who shows an amazing skill set at 7-foot-1 en route to the Pac-12 title and taking over the No. 1 spot with an 11.64 Value Add as of Selection Sunday.

You can go to www.valueaddbasketball.com to see the values of all 4,000 players, and most importly who good the top three stars are on each team - which is the basis of a teams "All-American" projection for wins in March Madness. Here are the top 50 plus some stars who were also named All-American but in some cases had their Value Add held down because of injuries.

We focused another post on the chance that a team can score a March Madness upset by dominating a favored team via Offensive Rebounds (OR%), Steals (Stl%) or 3-point shorts (3PM-3PA). For these top stars we added their figure from www.kenpom.com for these three states, while the number between their name and team is their Value Add - or how many points a game they are worth beyond a replacement player.

Rnk	Player	Value	Team	OR%	Stl%	3PM-3PA	Ht	Class	Notes
1	Deandre Ayton #13	11.64	Arizona	13.4	1.0	12-33	7' 1	Fr	All-Amer 2nd C^ 34 Gms
2	Jock Landale #34	11.18	Saint Mary's	12.0	0.8	3-9	6' 11	Sr	All-Amer 1st C^ 33 Gms
3	Mikal Bridges #25	10.75	Villanova	5.5	2.8	88-203	6' 7	Jr	All-Amer 1st SF-3^ 34 Gms
4	Gary Clark #11	10.59	Cincinnati	12.3	3.2	24-55	6' 8	Sr	All-Amer 1st Team PF-4 ^ 33 Gms
5	Yante Maten #1	10.30	Georgia	11.8	0.8	29-85	6' 8	Sr	All-Amer 2nd Team PF-4^ 33 Gms
6	Keita Bates-Diop #33	10.09	Ohio St.	5.6	1.8	58-162	6' 7	Jr	All-Amer 3rd Team PF-4^ 32 Gms
7	Jevon Carter #2	10.04	West Virginia	2.5	4.6	71-183	6' 2	Sr	All-Amer 2nd PG^ 34 Gms
8	Dean Wade #32	9.95	Kansas St.	5.0	2.8	40-91	6' 10	Jr	All-Amer 3rd C^ 32 Gms
9	John Konchar #55	9.81	Fort Wayne	6.3	3.9	60-155	6' 5	Jr	All-Amer 3rd SF-PF (tied+1.3)^ 28 Gms
10	Trae Young #11	9.71	Oklahoma	1.3	2.5	115-318	6' 2	Fr	All-Amer 1st PG^ 31 Gms
11	Jalen Brunson #1	9.59	Villanova	1.1	1.5	74-179	6' 2	Jr	All-Amer HM^ 34 Gms
12	Devonte' Graham #4	9.53	Kansas	1.6	2.5	98-238	6' 2	Sr	All-Amer 3rd PG^ 34 Gms
13	Juwan Morgan #13	9.44	Indiana	10.7	2.4	16-53	6' 7	Jr	All-Amer HM^ 31 Gms
14	Devon Hall #0	9.43	Virginia	1.5	1.8	57-126	6' 5	Sr	All-Amer HM^ 33 Gms
15	Marvin Bagley #35	9.40	Duke	13.7	1.5	20-54	6' 11	Fr	All-Amer HM^ 29 Gms
16	Trevon Bluiett #5	9.14	Xavier	3.0	1.2	101-239	6' 6	Sr	All-Amer 2nd SF-3 (+1.2)^ 33 Gms
17	James Thompson #2	9.06	Eastern Michigan	13.9	1.3	0-0	6' 10	Jr	All-Amer HM^ 29 Gms
18	Luke Maye #32	9.02	North Carolina	10.2	1.7	48-109	6' 8	Jr	All-Amer HM^ 35 Gms
19	Jonathan Stark #2	8.88	Murray St.	1.3	2.0	103-254	6' 0	Sr	All-Amer 1st Team SG-2 (+1.))^ 29 Gms
20	Jeff Roberson #11	8.79	Vanderbilt	6.6	1.5	62-153	6' 6	Sr	32 Gms
21	Keenan Evans #12	8.72	Texas Tech	1.4	2.4	43-137	6' 3	Sr	All-Amer HM (+.1)^ 32 Gms
22	Wendell Carter #34	8.71	Duke	13.0	1.6	19-41	6' 10	Fr	33 Gms
23	Peyton Aldridge #23	8.64	Davidson	5.0	0.7	76-192	6' 8	Sr	31 Gms
24	Mohamed Bamba #4	8.51	Texas	12.1	1.5	14-50	6' 11	Fr	All-Amer HM^ 29 Gms
25	Dylan Windler #3	8.29	Belmont	6.3	1.7	69-162	6' 7	Jr	All-Amer 3rd SF-PF (tied +.4)^ 33 Gms
26	Carsen Edwards #3	8.10	Purdue	1.7	2.3	89-216	6' 1	So	All-Amer HM^ 34 Gms
27	Ethan Happ #22	8.09	Wisconsin	9.7	3.0	1-11	6' 10	Jr	All-Amer HM^ 33 Gms
28	Michael Oguine #0	8.00	Montana	8.0	2.6	42-119	6' 2	Jr	All-Amer HM^ 31 Gms
29	Reid Travis #22	7.98	Stanford	10.2	1.3	17-57	6' 8	Jr	33 Gms
30	Mike Daum #24	7.95	South Dakota St.	7.2	0.9	85-198	6' 9	Jr	30 Gms
31	Anthony Cowan #1	7.93	Maryland	0.7	2.3	52-140	6' 0	So	31 Gms
32	Rob Gray #32	7.93	Houston	2.2	2.2	51-147	6' 1	Sr	31 Gms
33	Marcquise Reed #2	7.88	Clemson	2.6	2.9	65-179	6' 3	Jr	32 Gms
34	Cassius Winston #5	7.75	Michigan St.	0.9	1.3	71-135	6' 0	So	33 Gms
35	Kenrich Williams #34	7.73	TCU	9.6	2.9	45-110	6' 7	Sr	31 Gms
36	Tyler Davis #34	7.73	Texas A&M	13.2	0.7	7-25	6' 10	Jr	32 Gms
37	Elijah Bryant #3	7.73	BYU	1.7	2.2	82-199	6' 5	Jr	34 Gms
38	Allonzo Trier #35	7.70	Arizona	1.4	1.1	70-179	6' 5	Jr	All-Amer 2nd Team SG-2^ 32 Gms
39	Grayson Allen #3	7.68	Duke	1.8	2.7	90-239	6' 5	Sr	33 Gms
40	Moritz Wagner #13	7.68	Michigan	6.4	2.2	52-132	6' 11	Jr	32 Gms
41	Justin Bibbins #1	7.66	Utah	1.3	2.2	82-182	5' 8	Sr	30 Gms
42	Dakota Mathias #31	7.65	Purdue	0.6	2.4	90-194	6' 4	Sr	34 Gms
43	Landry Shamet #11	7.65	Wichita St.	1.6	1.3	84-183	6' 4	So	31 Gms
44	Daryl Macon #4	7.57	Arkansas	1.4	1.8	84-196	6' 3	Sr	34 Gms
45	Zhaire Smith #2	7.56	Texas Tech	9.9	2.4	13-31	6' 5	Fr	33 Gms
46	Tookie Brown #4	7.48	Georgia Southern	2.1	3.0	49-101	5' 11	Jr	30 Gms
47	Jacob Evans #1	7.46	Cincinnati	5.0	2.6	58-152	6' 6	Jr	All-Amer HM^ 33 Gms
48	TJ Shorts #0	7.44	UC Davis	1.6	3.6	10-28	5' 9	Jr	30 Gms
49	Noah Dickerson #15	7.41	Washington	12.5	1.4	2-5	6' 8	Jr	32 Gms
50	Sam Hauser #10	7.38	Marquette	3.8	1.7	91-

March Madness: Top Team Value Adds Adjusted for Injuries, Returning Players (Most Important)

Tuesday, March 13, 11 p.m. Injury Update

Rnk	Key Players Lost Late	Team	Value	Hurt Team
82	Jordan Barnett #21	Missouri	6.97	-6
174	De'Andre Hunter #12	Virginia	5.93	-4
755	Bruce Brown #11	Miami FL	2.94	-1.6
1943	Bruce Moore #13	Bucknell	0.7	-0.3
Rnk	Other possible lost players	Team	Value	Hurt Team
8	Dean Wade #32	Kansas St.	9.95	-9.6
22	Wendell Carter #34	Duke	8.71	-7
51	Donta Hall #0	Alabama	7.33	-6
395	Cameron Johnson #13	UNC	4.38	-3.5
674	Trevon Duval #1	Duke	3.21	-3
963	Wes VanBeck #12	Houston	2.34	-1
1284	Jarred Vanderbilt #2	Kentucky	1.64	-0.5

The late-breaking injuries wreak havoc. In the bracket based on Value Add and Health/Injuries Virginia drops to a projected runner-up (5 wins) and in the "slight" upset bracket down to 3 wins as either Arizona or Kentucky could easily beat them now in the Sweet 16. De'Andre Hunter has a 5.93 Value Add and despite some solid backups, being replaced by the 8th best player leaves Virginia 4.0 points worse. Kentucky also has a potential injury in Jarred Vanderbilt, which would cost them half a point, but we just take half off for a player who just misses. That actually nudges them below Arizona, but Kentucky is so close that if we go with slight upsets for a worse seed that is close then Kentucky beats Arizona and Virginia.

Dropping half of the three potential injuries for Duke and UNC could create Final Four runs for Michigan State and possibly even Michigan.

Original Selection Sunday Article Here

The team Value Add Ratings at the end of the season indicate how many points a team is better or worse than average. We have the raw Value Add, and then the injury adjustments to add for returning stars like Bonzie Colson (Notre Dame) and Michael Porter Jr. (Missouri) as well as players that were lost.

This is the most important rating for determining bracket picks - who has the best team on the floor right now based on their season-long value adjusted for current personnel changes. All teams that were still alive Saturday evening, because they were still in their conference tournament or because they are viewed as in the tournament or on the bubble, are listed.

First, here are the brackets you would use if you stuck with this, the most important factor - how good is the team right now. Virginia is the best team right now, a healthy team with a 21.7, so they would logically be the most likely to win the title. However, because it takes picking some upsets to have a chance to win, we do a second bracket that takes the worse seed if they are within 1 point in this important rating - for example, Villanova is within one of Virginia so we give them the title in the "Take upsets in tight match-ups."

The teams with the most damaging injuries were Nevada, Auburn, and Clemson - but ironically Auburn would play Clemson in the second round. The team helped the most was Missouri with the return of Michael Porter Jr. to take them to another level. Notre Dame would have been the other team helped to that degree as the 15th best team in the country adjusted for Colson's return (11.4+3=14.4), but they lost their spot in the tournament when Davidson stole a bid.

(Note for Marquette fans: Marquette was an 11.4 with no major personnel changes to calculate as the 48th best team in the nation - which would not have calculated high enough to win a game as the 11-seed in any of the four regions.)

Seed	South	Overall Value/ Upsets	Take upsets in tight	Value Add	Injury/ Returning	Adjusted Value Add
1	Virginia	5	3	21.7	-4.0	17.7
16	UMBC			-1.9	0.0	-1.9
8	Creighton	1	1	11.8	-1.0	10.8
9	Kansas St.			10.1	0.0	10.1
5	Kentucky	1	5	14.0	(-0.2)	13.8
12	Davidson			9.2	0.0	9.2
4	Arizona	2	1	13.9	0.0	13.9
13	Buffalo			6.9	0.0	6.9
6	Miami FL	1		10.7	0.4	11.1
11	Loyola Chicago		1	10.3	0.0	10.3
3	Tennessee	2	2	14.7	0.0	14.7
14	Wright St.			1.9	-1.0	0.9
7	Nevada			13.0	-3.0	10.0
10	Texas	1	1	10.6	-1.0	9.6
2	Cincinnati	3	3	18.8	0.0	18.8
15	Georgia St.			4.4	0.0	4.4
Seed	West	Overall Value/ Upsets	Take upsets in tight	Value Add	Injury/ Returning	Adjusted Value Add
1	Xavier	2	2	14.8	0.0	14.8
16	North Carolina Central			-9.5	0.0	-9.5
16	Texas Southern			-6.0	0.0	-6.0
8	Missouri			10.5	-2.0	8.5
9	Florida St.	1	1	10.7	0.0	10.7
5	Ohio St.	1	1	14.3	0.0	14.3
12	San Diego St.			8.9	0.0	8.9
4	Gonzaga	4	3	16.8	0.0	16.8
13	UNC Greensboro			6.1	0.0	6.1
6	Houston	1	1	13.1	0.0	13.1
11	South Dakota St.			7.2	0.0	7.2
3	Michigan	3	4	15.8	0.0	15.8
14	Montana			6.9	0.0	6.9
7	Texas A&M	1	1	11.5	-2.0	9.5
10	Providence			8.0	0.0	8.0
2	North Carolina	2	2	16.9	-1.7	15.2
15	Lipscomb			0.3	0.0	0.3
Seed	East	Overall Value/ Upsets	Take upsets in tight	Value Add	Injury/ Returning	Adjusted Value Add
1	Villanova	5	6	21.1	0.0	21.1
16	LIU Brooklyn			-5.3	0.0	-5.3
16	Radford			0.0	0.0	0.0
8	Virginia Tech	1	1	11.3	0.0	11.3
9	Alabama			10.1	-4.8?	5.3
5	West Virginia	2	2	15.1	0.0	15.1
12	Murray St.			8.6	0.0	8.6
4	Wichita St.	1	1	13.8	0.0	13.8
13	Marshall			3.4	0.0	3.4
6	Florida	1	1	13.1	0.0	13.1
11	St. Bonaventure			8.0	0.0	8.0
11	UCLA			10.1	0.0	10.1
3	Texas Tech	2	2	15.1	0.0	15.1
14	Stephen F. Austin			3.6	0.0	3.6
7	Arkansas			10.8	0.0	10.8
10	Butler	1	1	12.5	0.0	12.5
2	Purdue	3	3	18.1	0.0	18.1
15	Cal St. Fullerton			0.0	0.0	0.0
Seed	East	Overall Value/ Upsets	Take upsets in tight	Value Add	Injury/ Returning	Adjusted Value Add
1	Kansas	3	3	15.4	0.0	15.4
16	Penn			2.1	0.0	2.1
8	Seton Hall	1	1	11.8	0.0	11.8
9	North Carolina St.			10.2	0.0	10.2
5	Clemson	1	2	13.8	-3.0	10.8
12	New Mexico St.			9.1	0.0	9.1
4	Auburn	2	1	14.1	-3.0	11.1
13	College of Charleston			3.2	0.0	3.2
6	TCU			12.9	-3.0	9.9
11	Arizona St.			10.0	0.0	10.0
11	Syracuse	1	1	9.2	0.0	9.2
3	Michigan St.	4	4	17.9	0.0	17.9
14	Bucknell			4.6	-0.7	3.8
7	Rhode Island			9.9	0.0	9.9
10	Oklahoma	1	1	9.9	0.0	9.9
2	Duke	2	2	20.1	-5.0	15.1
15	Iona			2.0	0.0	2.0

And here are the overall rankings of the final 91 teams competing for bids and notes on how much a player's injury or returning player helped or hurt their strength as of Selection Sunday.

Rank	Team	Value Add	Injury/ Returning	Adjusted Value Add	Notes on significant personnel changes
1	Virginia	21.7	0.0	21.7	Healthy
2	Villanova	21.1	0.0	21.1	Healthy
3	Duke	20.1	0.0	20.1	Healthy
4	Cincinnati	18.8	0.0	18.8	Healthy
5	Purdue	18.1	0.0	18.1	Healthy
6	Michigan St.	17.9	0.0	17.9	Healthy
7	North Carolina	16.9	0.0	16.9	Healthy
8	Gonzaga	16.8	0.0	16.8	Healthy
9	Michigan	15.8	0.0	15.8	Healthy
10	West Virginia	15.1	0.0	15.1	Healthy
11	Texas Tech	15.1	0.0	15.1	Keenan Evans fine
12	Xavier	14.8	0.0	14.8	Healthy
13	Tennessee	14.7	0.0	14.7	Healthy
14	Missouri	10.5	4.0	14.5	No. 1 NBA draftee Michael Porter Jr. is back.
15	Notre Dame	11.4	3.0	14.4	D.J. Harvey (knee) is out for the season but the return of National POY candidate Bonzie Colson back.
16	Ohio St.	14.3	0.0	14.3	Healthy
17	Arizona	13.9	0.0	13.9	Healthy
18	Wichita St.	13.8	0.0	13.8	Healthy
19	Kansas	15.4	0.0	15.4	If Udoka Azubuike not back, then -2.0.
20	Florida	13.1	0.0	13.1	Healthy
21	Houston	13.1	0.0	13.1	Healthy
22	Kentucky	14.0	0.0	14.0	Healthy
23	Miami FL	10.7	2.0	12.7	If Bruce Brown not back then -2.
24	Butler	12.5	0.0	12.5	Healthy
25	Seton Hall	11.8	0.0	11.8	Healthy
26	Saint Mary's	11.6	0.0	11.6	Healthy
27	Virginia Tech	11.3	0.0	11.3	Healthy
28	Louisville	11.2	0.0	11.2	Healthy
29	Baylor	11.0	0.0	11.0	Healthy
30	Creighton	11.8	-1.0	10.8	Martin Krampelj ACL is out for season.
31	Arkansas	10.8	0.0	10.8	Healthy
32	Florida St.	10.7	0.0	10.7	Healthy
33	Loyola Chicago	10.3	0.0	10.3	Healthy
34	North Carolina St.	10.2	0.0	10.2	Healthy
35	Auburn	14.1	-3.0	11.1	NBA prospects Purijoy and Wiley,Auburn 2-4 w/oAnfernee McLemore.
36	Kansas St.	10.1	0.0	10.1	Healthy
37	UCLA	10.1	0.0	10.1	Ikenna Okwarabizie Concussion indefinite.
38	Alabama	10.1	0.0	10.1	Healthy
39	Nevada	13.0	-3.0	10.0	L. Drew was 4.50 Value add.
40	Arizona St.	10.0	0.0	10.0	Healthy
41	Rhode Island	9.9	0.0	9.9	Healthy
42	TCU	12.9	-3.0	9.9	Jaylen Fisher (5 value add), RJ Nembhard Ankle.
43	Oklahoma	9.9	0.0	9.9	Healthy
44	Clemson	13.8	-3.0	10.8	01/22/18 F Donte Grantham ACL is out for season, may be biggest loss of any team.
45	USC	10.2	-0.5	9.7	Good backups for Bennie Boatwright.
46	Texas	10.6	-1.0	9.6	Andrew Jones (5 value add) and Eric Davis 2.5.
47	Texas A&M	11.5	-2.0	9.5	Wilson 2.0 VA, Caldwell 1.0.
48	Marquette	9.4	0.0	9.4	Healthy
49	Middle Tennessee	9.4	0.0	9.4	Healthy
50	Syracuse	9.2	0.0	9.2	Thorpe, Washington out.
51	Davidson	9.2	0.0	9.2	Healthy
52	Oklahoma St.	9.2	0.0	9.2	Healthy
53	Nebraska	9.1	0.0	9.1	Healthy
54	New Mexico St.	9.1	0.0	9.1	Healthy
55	Maryland	10.0	-1.0	9.0	Bender, Jackson out.
56	Boise St.	9.0	0.0	9.0	Healthy
57	San Diego St.	8.9	0.0	8.9	Healthy
58	Western Kentucky	8.7	0.0	8.7	Healthy
59	Murray St.	8.6	0.0	8.6	Healthy
60	Penn St.	11.6	-3.0	8.6	Watkins, Knee, worth 7.0.
61	St. Bonaventure	8.0	0.0	8.0	Healthy
62	Providence	8.0	0.0	8.0	Healthy
63	South Dakota St.	7.2	0.0	7.2	Healthy
64	Buffalo	6.9	0.0	6.9	Healthy
65	Montana	6.9	0.0	6.9	Healthy
66	UNC Greensboro	6.1	0.0	6.1	Healthy
67	Georgia St.	4.4	0.0	4.4	Healthy
68	Bucknell	4.6	-0.4	4.2	Newman Suspension.
69	New Mexico	4.2	0.0	4.2	Healthy
70	Stephen F. Austin	3.6	0.0	3.6	Healthy
71	Toledo	3.6	0.0	3.6	Healthy
72	Marshall	3.4	0.0	3.4	Healthy
73	Grand Canyon	3.4	0.0	3.4	Healthy
74	College of Charleston	3.2	0.0	3.2	Healthy
75	Eastern Washington	2.7	0.0	2.7	Healthy
76	UT Arlington	2.4	0.0	2.4	Healthy
77	UC Irvine	2.2	0.0	2.2	Healthy
78	Penn	2.1	0.0	2.1	Healthy
79	Iona	2.0	0.0	2.0	Healthy
80	Wright St.	1.9	-1.0	0.9	Justin Mitchell 2.4 out indefinitely.
81	Harvard	0.9	0.0	0.9	Healthy
82	Lipscomb	0.3	0.0	0.3	Healthy
83	Cal St. Fullerton	0.0	0.0	0.0	Healthy
84	Radford	0.0	0.0	0.0	Healthy
85	Georgia Southern	1.2	-2.0	-0.8	03/10/18 F Montae Glenn Knee is out indefinitely.
86	Southeastern Louisiana	-1.6	0.0	-1.6	Healthy
87	UMBC	-1.9	0.0	-1.9	Healthy
88	LIU Brooklyn	-5.3	0.0	-5.3	Healthy
89	Texas Southern	-6.0	0.0	-6.0	Healthy
90	North Carolina Central	-9.5	0.0	-9.5	Healthy
91	Arkansas Pine Bluff	-11.0	0.0	-11.0	Healthy