Table Explaining Drop in Efficiency the More a Player Must Do

In a piece in Big Apple Buckets, I refer to my adaption of tables on page 234 and subsequent chapters of Basketball On Paper by Dean Oliver. Basically the same player who could average 131 points for 100 trips if he just handled the ball 1% of the time (meaning the defense ignored him, he only shot if open at the rim and he was well rested) would fall off to 122 if he had to extend and take 5% of his team's possessions. The following table shows how much we would expect him to drop off if other players were injured and he suddenly had to take more and more of the load:

Player Ortg Drop with higher  Pos%	% Poss	% Min	Per Game	Off Rat
Stackhouse/Iverson 2001/2002	1%	83%	1%	131
Stackhouse/Iverson  2001/2002	6%	83%	5%	122
Stackhouse/Iverson  2001/2002	12%	83%	10%	115
Stackhouse/Iverson  2001/2002	18%	83%	15%	113
Stackhouse/Iverson  2001/2002	24%	83%	20%	109
Stackhouse/Iverson  2001/2002	30%	83%	25%	106
Stackhouse/Iverson   2001/2002	36%	83%	30%	97
Stackhouse/Iverson  2001/2002	40%	83%	33%	85

This table is based on two players with great endurance who were All-Stars at the time. Obviously a lesser player like an eighth man who only had an Offensive Rating of 82 while handling 10% of possessions, would be very low if he suddenly had to start.

The lack of understanding about the how much a player falls off in efficiency the more he has to do is often the biggest stumbling block to understanding Value Add as well as why a player with a slightly lower Offensive Rating who can do it while playing many minutes and possessing the ball a lot is more valuable than a player with a higher rating who does not have to do that much.