In both our www.valueaddbasketball.com ratings of players' values this season, and the Value Add Basketball Game, it is helpful to outline the basic steps of a basketball game and the value each player provides with every play. Because you want negative numbers on defense and positive numbers on offense, any number in red is an action that hurts the player's team, and anything in green is the amount they helped their team.
1. Team with ball is expected to score 1.0 points on their trip down the court.
The values below indicate how much each play changes that 1.0 points expected.
2. Team turns the ball over, average points drop to 0.0.
a. Offensive player turning the ball over gets an offensive -1.0 (cost his team one point).
b. If turnover was due to a steal, the defensive player stealing the ball gets DEFENSE credit for -1.0 (you want negatives on defense for taking points from your opponent).
c. If ball was turned over without a steal (traveling, ball out of bounds, shot clock violation), then all a defensive credit of -0.2 goes to all five defenders.
3. Player is fouled and gets free throws - expected points increase from 1.0 points to 1.4 points if two shots.
a. Defender committing foul blamed for +0.4 defense, or +1.1 if fouls on 3-point shot or, or +1.7 if fouls and player scores and gets one free throw, or finally the worst play of all a +2.7 if fouls and three-point shot is made plus one free throw.
b. If Offensive player makes both free throws he gets +1.0.
c. If Offensive players misses both free throws he gets -0.1.
d. If Offensive player misses first, and makes second shot, he gets 0.0 for the one point expected.
e. If Offensive player makes first and misses second, he gets credit for +0.1, because the made shot gets him to the average 1.0, and since the offensive team gets the miss on a missed free throw 17% of the time we round up to a +0.2 for the chance of scoring in addition to the free throw already made.
4. If the last free throw is missed
a. If an offensive player grabs the missed free throw, he gets a +0.8.
b. If a defensive player grabs the missed free throw, he gets a -0.2 for taking the one-fifth of a point expected.
5. If player takes a shot.
a. If a player makes a 3-point shot without an assist, he gets a +2.0 (note if he is also fouled on this or the made 2-pointer, then he gets this plus anything from #4 above on the free throw).
b. If a player makes a 2-point shot without an assist, he gets a +1.0.
c. If a player makes a 3-point shot with any assist, he gets a +1.5, and the player with the assist gets a +0.5.
d. If a player makes a 2-point shot with an assist, he gets a +0.5 and the player with the assist gets a +0.5.
e. If a player misses a shot, every defender gets defensive credit for a -0.2.
6. After a missed shot.
a. If an offensive player gets a rebound, he gets a +0.7.
b. If a defensive player gets a rebound, he gets defensive credit for a -0.3.