Note: click here for the bracket results for all 8 methods.
This bracket is based on a combination of each team's KenPom ratings plus the level of NBA talent on the roster. Most of the 68 teams do not have players likely to be in the NBA within two years, and sometimes those who do rise to a new level in the tournament. Other times the NBA talent is already looking ahead to the draft however.
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In prep for the March Madness brackets being announced tonight, we are laying out separate blogs on the various factors that can point to NCAA runs. The first factor we reviewed was turnover margin, and the 2nd factor is the amount of NBA talent on each team.
We calculated that about 1 percent of current Division I college basketball players - about 47 out of well over 4,000 - will be playing in the NBA this year or next. Sometimes someone asks me why a player that was so dominant in college is not that good in the NBA, to which I throw up my hands and say "HE IS ON THE NBA!" He is now only playing against the other dominant one percent.
Sometimes the players ready to go in the NBA draft are not as focused on March Madness, but other times they just take over come tournament time.
Duke has the most NBA talent, followed by Arkansas. You can find those players below the team tallies, with the percent chance that each makes the NBA.
| Team | NBA Players | NBA Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Duke | 3.8 | 1 |
| Arkansas | 3.1 | 2 |
| Alabama | 2.6 | 3 |
| UCLA | 1.8 | 4 |
| Kansas | 1.5 | 5 |
| Kentucky | 1.5 | 6 |
| Baylor | 1.5 | 7 |
| Arizona | 1.3 | 8 |
| Connecticut | 1.1 | 9 |
| Indiana | 0.8 | 10 |
| Saint Mary's | 0.8 | 11 |
| Tennessee | 0.7 | 12 |
| Texas | 0.7 | 13 |
| Iowa | 0.6 | 14 |
| Gonzaga | 0.6 | 15 |
| Xavier | 0.6 | 16 |
| Illinois | 0.5 | 17 |
| Purdue | 0.5 | 18 |
| Virginia | 0.5 | 19 |
| TCU | 0.5 | 20 |
| Howard | 0.4 | 21 |
| Texas Southern | 0.4 | 22 |
| Arizona St. | 0.0 | 23 |
| Auburn | 0.0 | 23 |
| Boise St. | 0.0 | 23 |
| Charleston | 0.0 | 23 |
| Colgate | 0.0 | 23 |
| Creighton | 0.0 | 23 |
| Drake | 0.0 | 23 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | 0.0 | 23 |
| Florida Atlantic | 0.0 | 23 |
| Furman | 0.0 | 23 |
| Grand Canyon | 0.0 | 23 |
| Iona | 0.0 | 23 |
| Iowa St. | 0.0 | 23 |
| Kansas St. | 0.0 | 23 |
| Kennesaw St. | 0.0 | 23 |
| Kent St. | 0.0 | 23 |
| Louisiana | 0.0 | 23 |
| Marquette | 0.0 | 23 |
| Maryland | 0.0 | 23 |
| Memphis | 0.0 | 23 |
| Miami FL | 0.0 | 23 |
| Michigan St. | 0.0 | 23 |
| Mississippi St. | 0.0 | 23 |
| Missouri | 0.0 | 23 |
| Montana St. | 0.0 | 23 |
| N.C. State | 0.0 | 23 |
| Nevada | 0.0 | 23 |
| Northern Kentucky | 0.0 | 23 |
| Northwestern | 0.0 | 23 |
| Oral Roberts | 0.0 | 23 |
| Penn St. | 0.0 | 23 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.0 | 23 |
| Princeton | 0.0 | 23 |
| Providence | 0.0 | 23 |
| San Diego St. | 0.0 | 23 |
| Southeast Missouri St. | 0.0 | 23 |
| Texas A&M | 0.0 | 23 |
| Texas A&M Corpus Chris | 0.0 | 23 |
| UC Santa Barbara | 0.0 | 23 |
| UNC Asheville | 0.0 | 23 |
| USC | 0.0 | 23 |
| Utah St. | 0.0 | 23 |
| VCU | 0.0 | 23 |
| Vermont | 0.0 | 23 |
| West Virginia | 0.0 | 23 |
The following is a cheat sheet of all the players by March Madness team that we believe will be in the NBA within the next few years.
| Team | Rnk | Player | NBA? | Inj | PG? | Exp | Ht |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 1 | Brandon Miller 2 | 0.99 | 0 | 6'9 | ||
| Alabama | 2 | Noah Clowney | 0.85 | 0 | 6'10 | ||
| Alabama | 6 | Jaden Bradley | 0.75 | 0 | 6'3 | ||
| Arizona | 1 | Azuolas Tubelis 7 | 0.58 | 2 | 6'11 | ||
| Arizona | 5 | Henri Veesaar | 0.7 | 0 | 7'0 | ||
| Arkansas | 2 | Anthony Black | 0.97 | PG | 0 | 6'7 | |
| Arkansas | 4 | Ricky Council | 0.53 | 2 | 6'6 | ||
| Arkansas | 5 | Jordan Walsh | 0.64 | 0 | 6'7 | ||
| Arkansas | 6 | Nick Smith | 0.98 | 0 | 6'5 | ||
| Baylor | 3 | Keyonte George | 0.94 | 0 | 6'4 | ||
| Baylor | 4 | LJ Cryer | 0.55 | 2 | 6'1 | ||
| Connecticut | 1 | Adama Sanogo | 0.52 | 2 | 6'9 | ||
| Connecticut | 6 | Andre Jackson | 0.57 | 2 | 6'6 | ||
| Duke | 1 | Kyle Filipowski | 0.82 | 0 | 7'0 | ||
| Duke | 3 | Dereck Lively | 0.68 | 0 | 7'1 | ||
| Duke | 4 | Mark Mitchell | 0.71 | 0 | 6'8 | ||
| Duke | 5 | Tyrese Proctor | 0.81 | 0 | 6'5 | ||
| Duke | 6 | Dariq Whitehead | 0.76 | 0 | 6'7 | ||
| Gonzaga | 3 | Julian Strawther | 0.6 | 2 | 6'7 | ||
| Howard | 6 | Reece Brown | 0.38 | 2 | 6'9 | ||
| Illinois | 4 | Coleman Hawkins | 0.54 | 2 | 6'10 | ||
| Indiana | 6 | Jalen Hood-Schifino | 0.84 | PG | 0 | 6'6 | |
| Iowa | 1 | Kris Murray | 0.61 | 2 | 6'8 | ||
| Kansas | 1 | Jalen Wilson 6 | 0.59 | 2 | 6'8 | ||
| Kansas | 2 | Gradey Dick | 0.95 | 0 | 6'8 | ||
| Kentucky | 2 | Cason Wallace | 0.9 | PG | 0 | 6'4 | |
| Kentucky | 6 | Chris Livingston | 0.63 | 0 | 6'6 | ||
| Purdue | 1 | Zach Edey 1 | 0.51 | 2 | 7'4 | ||
| Saint Mary's | 5 | Aidan Mahaney | 0.77 | 0 | 6'3 | ||
| TCU | 3 | Mike Miles | 0.49 | 2 | 6'2 | ||
| Tennessee | 3 | Julian Phillips | 0.67 | 0 | 6'8 | ||
| Texas | 6 | Dillon Mitchell | 0.65 | 0 | 6'8 | ||
| Texas Southern | 6 | PJ Henry | 0.36 | PG | 3 | 5'10 | |
| UCLA | 2 | Jaylen Clark | 0.37 | Maj. | 2 | 6'5 | |
| UCLA | 5 | Adem Bona | 0.74 | Min. | 0 | 6'10 | |
| UCLA | 6 | Amari Bailey | 0.66 | 0 | 6'5 | ||
| Virginia | 3 | Reece Beekman | 0.5 | 2 | 6'3 | ||
| Xavier | 3 | Colby Jones | 0.56 | 2 | 6'6 |
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