Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Notre Dame Most Disappointing, Marquette & Charleston Most Surprising Teams

If you are rushing to fill out your bracket before the deadline Thursday morning, then skip this blog and go to the bracket breakdowns.

At the beginning of the season ratings projected Notre Dame would beat Marquette by eight points, but when December 11 rolled around it was Marquette that won going away at 79-64.

By the end of the season, Notre Dame was the most disappointing team of all those projected to make the tournament.  The started the season with a +15.93 rating (almost 16 points better than the average team in the country of 363 total teams).  By the end of the season they were slightly below average, at -0.14, a drop of -16.07.

Based of subjective polls UNC is the most disappointing with a drop from #1 to not in the tournament, but of all the 93 teams that either made the tournament or were projected to make the tournament, LSU, Kentucky and Virginia Tech were all more disappointing then UNC based on Pomeroy. Kentucky and Virginia were projected to be so good that even thought they make they were among the 10 most disappointing, they both made the tournament and can start a new season. 

In order, the most disappointing 10 (ranked 84th to 93rd and last on the list below) are; 1, Notre Dame; 2, LSU; 3, Kentucky (still a 6-seed); 4, Virginia Tech; 5, North Carolina; 6, Virginia (still a 4-seed); 7, Saint Louis; 8, Dayton; 9, St. John's (note the firing of Mike Anderson after the season), and the 10th most disappointing team is Villanova.

The teams at the top of this list are the biggest surprises of the year, and one team was an even bigger surprise this season was Charleston, which was expected to be three points worse than the average team (-3.11) but in fact finishes the season as a 12-seed and 11.79 points better than average - an improvement of 14.9 points.

Marquette was also projected to miss the tournament - by 30 spots - as the 76th best team at +11.07 points better than average. They finished as a 2-seed and 21.86 points better than average, an improvement of 10.79.

One word of caution is that Nevada was the third most improved team in the country, and in their opening NCAA game they were DESTROYED. Marquette and Charleston need to hope that doesn't indicate other teams that played way above expectations are coming back to earth for the tournament.

Here are the teams ranked from most improved to most disappointed. The actual seed is listed by the team, followed by their anticipated seed at the beginning of the season.

Most Imp.Team and Act. SeedExp. SeedImprovePreseasonStartedNowEndedConf
1Charleston 12 14.9-3.1119511.7973CAA
2Marquette 2 10.7911.077621.8611BE
3Nevada 11 10.212.8513213.0659MWC
4Florida Atlantic 9 9.738.638918.3622CUSA
5Fairleigh Dickinson 16 9.66-20.45355-10.79299NEC
6Oral Roberts 12148.54.6612013.1657Sum
7West Virginia 9 7.7811.337319.1117B12
8Boise St. 10 7.669.018716.6732MWC
9Kent St. 13 7.654.212311.8572MAC
10Kennesaw St. 14 7.5-3.92073.6127ASun
11Kansas St. 3 7.2910.917718.225B12
12Alabama 156.7820.631727.413SEC
13Utah St. 10 6.6211.796818.4121MWC
14Montana St. 14166.56-0.631735.93110BSky
15Saint Mary's 5 6.3815.414721.7912WCC
16Iona 13146.365.3911611.7574MAAC
17Louisiana 13 6.361.681458.0491SB
18Connecticut 476.1919.172725.364BE
19Iowa St. 6 5.7112.586218.2924B12
20VCU 12 5.397.849413.2356A10
21Purdue 175.3119.242524.556B10
22Southeast Missouri St. 16 4.93-11.82309-6.89253OVC
24Houston 124.7224.3729.021Amer
25UCLA 234.5523.131127.682P12
26Maryland 8 4.2614.165618.4220B10
27UNC Asheville 15 4.14-2.61871.54146BSth
28Texas A&M Corpus Chris 16163.98-4.31212-0.33171Slnd
29Princeton 15153.711.881435.59112Ivy
30N.C. State 11 3.39.88113.158ACC
31Xavier 3103.2316.473819.716BE
32Northwestern 7 3.1211.737014.8540B10
33James Madison152.873.741276.61102SB
34Howard 16 2.61-5.84239-3.23216MEAC
35Texas A&M 7112.5115.624518.1326SEC
36Arizona St. 11 2.4211.217513.6354P12
37Pittsburgh 11 2.139.198411.3278ACC
38Drake 12121.6610.657912.3167MVC
39Memphis 891.4317.513418.9418Amer
40Creighton 661.3519.362320.7113BE
41Providence 11 1.0313.745714.7745BE
42UC Santa Barbara 14140.096.541066.63101BW
44Colgate 1514-0.155.491155.34114Pat
46Arizona 23-0.2523.211022.9610P12
47Penn St. 1011-0.5415.564615.0239B10
48Morehead St.16-0.56-4.68223-5.24234OVC
49San Diego St. 55-0.5820.371819.7915MWC
50Northern Kentucky 1615-0.691.21510.51162Horz
51Mississippi St. 11 -0.914.695313.7951SEC
52Norfolk St.16-1-0.52171-1.52197MEAC
53Kansas 12-1.1324.22823.099B12
55Illinois 99-1.1717.683316.5133B10
56Miami FL 511-1.2716.074214.843ACC
57Michigan St. 78-1.4418.153116.7131B10
58USC 109-1.5317.263615.7335P12
59Grand Canyon 1413-1.67.67966.07108WAC
60Vermont 1513-1.637.121005.49113AE
61Missouri 711-2.2516.094113.8450SEC
62Tennessee 41-2.5327.11424.585SEC
64Oklahoma St.8-2.9918.23015.2138B12
65Furman 1312-3.3211.76698.4489SC
66Gonzaga 31-3.4427.67324.238WCC
68Iowa 86-3.7619.372215.6136B10
69Ohio St.8-3.8117.833214.0248B10
70Texas 21-3.8728.4224.537B12
71Duke 54-3.9222.271518.3523ACC
73TCU 64-4.1522.15161827B12
75Arkansas 84-4.3522.791418.4419SEC
78Baylor 32-5.6125.52619.9114B12
79Auburn 94-5.6122.921317.3130SEC
80Indiana 43-5.6323.021217.3929B10
82Texas Southern 1616-5.96-5.2233-11.16303SWAC
83Texas Tech6-6.8119.72112.8962B12
85St. John's10-7.4816.98379.585BE
87Saint Louis10-8.816.27397.4795A10
88Virginia 42-9.5325.75516.2234ACC
89North Carolina3-9.5424.06914.5246ACC
90Virginia Tech5-10.1820.08209.981ACC
91Kentucky 61-12.1429.78117.6428SEC
93Notre Dame11-16.0715.9343-0.14169ACC

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