Notre Dame Most Disappointing, Marquette & Charleston Most Surprising Teams

If you are rushing to fill out your bracket before the deadline Thursday morning, then skip this blog and go to the bracket breakdowns.

At the beginning of the season www.kenpom.com ratings projected Notre Dame would beat Marquette by eight points, but when December 11 rolled around it was Marquette that won going away at 79-64.

By the end of the season, Notre Dame was the most disappointing team of all those projected to make the tournament.  The started the season with a +15.93 rating (almost 16 points better than the average team in the country of 363 total teams).  By the end of the season they were slightly below average, at -0.14, a drop of -16.07.

Based of subjective polls UNC is the most disappointing with a drop from #1 to not in the tournament, but of all the 93 teams that either made the tournament or were projected to make the tournament, LSU, Kentucky and Virginia Tech were all more disappointing then UNC based on Pomeroy. Kentucky and Virginia were projected to be so good that even thought they make they were among the 10 most disappointing, they both made the tournament and can start a new season. 

In order, the most disappointing 10 (ranked 84th to 93rd and last on the list below) are; 1, Notre Dame; 2, LSU; 3, Kentucky (still a 6-seed); 4, Virginia Tech; 5, North Carolina; 6, Virginia (still a 4-seed); 7, Saint Louis; 8, Dayton; 9, St. John's (note the firing of Mike Anderson after the season), and the 10th most disappointing team is Villanova.

The teams at the top of this list are the biggest surprises of the year, and one team was an even bigger surprise this season was Charleston, which was expected to be three points worse than the average team (-3.11) but in fact finishes the season as a 12-seed and 11.79 points better than average - an improvement of 14.9 points.

Marquette was also projected to miss the tournament - by 30 spots - as the 76th best team at +11.07 points better than average. They finished as a 2-seed and 21.86 points better than average, an improvement of 10.79.

One word of caution is that Nevada was the third most improved team in the country, and in their opening NCAA game they were DESTROYED. Marquette and Charleston need to hope that doesn't indicate other teams that played way above expectations are coming back to earth for the tournament.

Here are the teams ranked from most improved to most disappointed. The actual seed is listed by the team, followed by their anticipated seed at the beginning of the season.

Most Imp.	Team and Act. Seed	Exp. Seed	Improve	Preseason	Started	Now	Ended	Conf
1	Charleston 12		14.9	-3.11	195	11.79	73	CAA
2	Marquette 2		10.79	11.07	76	21.86	11	BE
3	Nevada 11		10.21	2.85	132	13.06	59	MWC
4	Florida Atlantic 9		9.73	8.63	89	18.36	22	CUSA
5	Fairleigh Dickinson 16		9.66	-20.45	355	-10.79	299	NEC
6	Oral Roberts 12	14	8.5	4.66	120	13.16	57	Sum
7	West Virginia 9		7.78	11.33	73	19.11	17	B12
8	Boise St. 10		7.66	9.01	87	16.67	32	MWC
9	Kent St. 13		7.65	4.2	123	11.85	72	MAC
10	Kennesaw St. 14		7.5	-3.9	207	3.6	127	ASun
11	Kansas St. 3		7.29	10.91	77	18.2	25	B12
12	Alabama 1	5	6.78	20.63	17	27.41	3	SEC
13	Utah St. 10		6.62	11.79	68	18.41	21	MWC
14	Montana St. 14	16	6.56	-0.63	173	5.93	110	BSky
15	Saint Mary's 5		6.38	15.41	47	21.79	12	WCC
16	Iona 13	14	6.36	5.39	116	11.75	74	MAAC
17	Louisiana 13		6.36	1.68	145	8.04	91	SB
18	Connecticut 4	7	6.19	19.17	27	25.36	4	BE
19	Iowa St. 6		5.71	12.58	62	18.29	24	B12
20	VCU 12		5.39	7.84	94	13.23	56	A10
21	Purdue 1	7	5.31	19.24	25	24.55	6	B10
22	Southeast Missouri St. 16		4.93	-11.82	309	-6.89	253	OVC
23	Liberty	12	4.89	9.58	82	14.47	47	ASun
24	Houston 1	2	4.72	24.3	7	29.02	1	Amer
25	UCLA 2	3	4.55	23.13	11	27.68	2	P12
26	Maryland 8		4.26	14.16	56	18.42	20	B10
27	UNC Asheville 15		4.14	-2.6	187	1.54	146	BSth
28	Texas A&M Corpus Chris 16	16	3.98	-4.31	212	-0.33	171	Slnd
29	Princeton 15	15	3.71	1.88	143	5.59	112	Ivy
30	N.C. State 11		3.3	9.8	81	13.1	58	ACC
31	Xavier 3	10	3.23	16.47	38	19.7	16	BE
32	Northwestern 7		3.12	11.73	70	14.85	40	B10
33	James Madison	15	2.87	3.74	127	6.61	102	SB
34	Howard 16		2.61	-5.84	239	-3.23	216	MEAC
35	Texas A&M 7	11	2.51	15.62	45	18.13	26	SEC
36	Arizona St. 11		2.42	11.21	75	13.63	54	P12
37	Pittsburgh 11		2.13	9.19	84	11.32	78	ACC
38	Drake 12	12	1.66	10.65	79	12.31	67	MVC
39	Memphis 8	9	1.43	17.51	34	18.94	18	Amer
40	Creighton 6	6	1.35	19.36	23	20.71	13	BE
41	Providence 11		1.03	13.74	57	14.77	45	BE
42	UC Santa Barbara 14	14	0.09	6.54	106	6.63	101	BW
43	Longwood	15	-0.07	-0.12	166	-0.19	170	BSth
44	Colgate 15	14	-0.15	5.49	115	5.34	114	Pat
45	Toledo	13	-0.16	9.14	86	8.98	87	MAC
46	Arizona 2	3	-0.25	23.21	10	22.96	10	P12
47	Penn St. 10	11	-0.54	15.56	46	15.02	39	B10
48	Morehead St.	16	-0.56	-4.68	223	-5.24	234	OVC
49	San Diego St. 5	5	-0.58	20.37	18	19.79	15	MWC
50	Northern Kentucky 16	15	-0.69	1.2	151	0.51	162	Horz
51	Mississippi St. 11		-0.9	14.69	53	13.79	51	SEC
52	Norfolk St.	16	-1	-0.52	171	-1.52	197	MEAC
53	Kansas 1	2	-1.13	24.22	8	23.09	9	B12
54	UAB	12	-1.14	14.8	52	13.66	53	CUSA
55	Illinois 9	9	-1.17	17.68	33	16.51	33	B10
56	Miami FL 5	11	-1.27	16.07	42	14.8	43	ACC
57	Michigan St. 7	8	-1.44	18.15	31	16.71	31	B10
58	USC 10	9	-1.53	17.26	36	15.73	35	P12
59	Grand Canyon 14	13	-1.6	7.67	96	6.07	108	WAC
60	Vermont 15	13	-1.63	7.12	100	5.49	113	AE
61	Missouri 7	11	-2.25	16.09	41	13.84	50	SEC
62	Tennessee 4	1	-2.53	27.11	4	24.58	5	SEC
63	Wagner	16	-2.92	-9.61	282	-12.53	316	NEC
64	Oklahoma St.	8	-2.99	18.2	30	15.21	38	B12
65	Furman 13	12	-3.32	11.76	69	8.44	89	SC
66	Gonzaga 3	1	-3.44	27.67	3	24.23	8	WCC
67	Oregon	8	-3.53	18.37	29	14.84	41	P12
68	Iowa 8	6	-3.76	19.37	22	15.61	36	B10
69	Ohio St.	8	-3.81	17.83	32	14.02	48	B10
70	Texas 2	1	-3.87	28.4	2	24.53	7	B12
71	Duke 5	4	-3.92	22.27	15	18.35	23	ACC
72	Towson	13	-4	7.55	98	3.55	128	CAA
73	TCU 6	4	-4.15	22.15	16	18	27	B12
74	BYU	11	-4.33	15.87	44	11.54	77	WCC
75	Arkansas 8	4	-4.35	22.79	14	18.44	19	SEC
76	Michigan	7	-4.36	19.19	26	14.83	42	B10
77	Oklahoma	7	-5.31	18.93	28	13.62	55	B12
78	Baylor 3	2	-5.61	25.52	6	19.91	14	B12
79	Auburn 9	4	-5.61	22.92	13	17.31	30	SEC
80	Indiana 4	3	-5.63	23.02	12	17.39	29	B10
81	Florida	9	-5.7	17.35	35	11.65	75	SEC
82	Texas Southern 16	16	-5.96	-5.2	233	-11.16	303	SWAC
83	Texas Tech	6	-6.81	19.7	21	12.89	62	B12
84	Villanova	5	-7.38	20.37	19	12.99	60	BE
85	St. John's	10	-7.48	16.98	37	9.5	85	BE
86	Dayton	6	-8.09	19.29	24	11.2	79	A10
87	Saint Louis	10	-8.8	16.27	39	7.47	95	A10
88	Virginia 4	2	-9.53	25.75	5	16.22	34	ACC
89	North Carolina	3	-9.54	24.06	9	14.52	46	ACC
90	Virginia Tech	5	-10.18	20.08	20	9.9	81	ACC
91	Kentucky 6	1	-12.14	29.78	1	17.64	28	SEC
92	LSU	10	-14.77	16.24	40	1.47	149	SEC
93	Notre Dame	11	-16.07	15.93	43	-0.14	169	ACC