Saturday, October 1, 2022

Statis-Pro 2022 Season Warp with Just a Few Series Left

Some notes as we wrap-up the 2021 season using the Statis-Pro baseball. This season was played using these 2022 Protected Batters, and 2022 Projected Pitchers for Arizona to Miami and then Milwaukee to Washington. Occasionally we added some fun with this chart for unusual "Z-plays.

We've played 96 games, and the 95th game included the first 20-run game with the Blue Jays beating the Red Sox 22-1. The Blue Jays won the second game 9-3 to become the first team all season to "sweep" both games in our 48 double header series. Overall 27 of the 96 games were sweeps. To get credit for a sweep in our league a team must lead by at least 5-runs at the end of the 8th inning without using their closer through 8 innings. When a team does this they get credit for winning a 3-game series 3-0, while all other games count as a 2 games to 1 win. Our series were swept 28% of all games (27 of 96), once again very close to the percent of the time a team wins the first 3 games of a series. (notes further down on how Toronto fought through the 2nd sweep.

The expanding standings below show the Blue Jays and Yankees have actually tied for the exact same record at 12-6, but because the Blue Jays have now swept 7 series and never been swept to get a 37-17 record, while the Yankees have swept 3 and been swept 2 times to have a 31-23 record.

We pick the projected top 10 teams in one league at the beginning of the season (we rotate each year, but this year is AL) and this sheet tracks their series and each team plays the other nine in a double headers, so the Blue Jays were the first to get credit for going 6-0 in a series.

Near the end of the year we pick one of the five "relegated" teams that have overachieved this year - and the Baltimore Orioles were the no-brainer this year - and we play them as needed to let the other teams all get their top four starting pitchers five starts on the season. The only remaining series will be a team against the Orioles.

The Orioles did play the Astros, Mariners and Rays. Next we will/may play:

Orioles vs. Red Sox - The Red Sox still have the 6th and final spot in the playoff. If they go at least 4-2 against the Orioles then the clinch a playoff spot because the White Sox and LA Angels can no longer catch them even if they went 6-0 against the Orioles. If the Red Sox go at least 2-4 against the Orioles then the Angels cannot catch them and the Angels would be completely eliminated. The Angels actually went 4-14, but two of their four wins were "sweeps."

The other two teams who still need to play the Orioles in order to clinch a playoff spot are:

Orioles vs. Guardians - Cleveland must go at least 3-3 to guarantee they beat out the White Sox, but lose the tie-breaker if the White Sox catch them (the two went 3-3, but our next tie-breaker is better record against the top team, and Chicago went 2-4 against the Blue Jays while Cleveland went 1-5).

Orioles vs. Twins - The Twins need to go at least 2-4 to assure they beat out the White Sox and make the playoffs.

The White Sox will only play their series against the Orioles if they still have a chance to make the playoffs after the three series above.

The Angels will only play their series against the Orioles if Cleveland went 1-5 or 0-6 to give them a longshot chance to make the playoffs with a 6-0 or 5-1 record.

The Yankees will play their series just to determine if they are the second team to get a bye (Toronto has clinched one bye).

The playoffs will be the same as MLB playoffs this year with the 3rd through 6th place teams playing 3-game series at the home of the higher seeds, while the Toronto and the No. 2 seed get byes.

For the playoffs, we will use the cards for the 10 most improved batters and pitchers this season, but all other cards being used are the 2022 projected cards - whether or not the player actually had a better or worst year than projected. So yes, Aaron Judge's incredible 24-36 home run range in this card will be used in the playoffs.

Row LabelsWLWin %GBRunsAllowWin %Actual record and extra credit for sweeps
Toronto37-170.685106.24.10.685Act Rec: 12 - 6, 7 sweeps & 0 times swept.
NY Yankees31-230.57444.33.40.574Act Rec: 12 - 6, 3 sweeps & 2 times swept.
Minnesota30-240.55634.34.10.556Act Rec: 11 - 7, 3 sweeps & 2 times swept.
Cleveland29-250.53724.33.80.537Act Rec: 10 - 8, 3 sweeps & 2 times swept.
Houston32-280.53325.54.40.533Act Rec: 11 - 9, 4 sweeps & 3 times swept.
Boston27-270.50004.74.60.500Act Rec: 10 - 8, 2 sweeps & 3 times swept.
Chicago WS25-290.463- Rec: 9 - 9, 1 sweeps & 3 times swept.
LA Angels23-310.426-445.50.426Act Rec: 4 - 14, 2 sweeps & 1 times swept.
Seattle25-350.417-5450.417Act Rec: 7 - 13, 2 sweeps & 4 times swept.
Tampa Bay23-370.383- Rec: 8 - 12, 0 sweeps & 5 times swept.
Baltimore6-120.333- Rec: 2 - 4, 0 sweeps & 2 times swept.

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