## Sunday, October 16, 2022

### Formulas and Tables to Calculate Statis-Pro Pitcher Cards

Calculating Statis-Pro batter cards has been straight-forward since Avalon Hill games published the formulas in the 1970s. However, the formulas needed to calculate Statis-Pro pitcher cards are incredibly complicated, and the original tables for those cards based on innings pitched were pretty inaccurate including great pitchers give up far fewer hits than they did in real baseball.

Almost 50 years after first thinking I would write this one day - here is the process and tables to calculate accurate Statis-Pro cards. First, the following is the calculation for the average pitcher card for the 2022 season using the tables and formulas in this blog.

PB: 4-7  SR: 12/4

1Bf:11K: 24-44
1B7:12-14W:45-53
1B8:15-18WP:54
1B9:21-23CD-C:55-56
BK: Out:57-88

Step 1 - Determine the PB Rating

The most important breakthrough that distinguishes Statis-Pro from all other board games in the pitcher's PB rating. It is what makes calculating the cards so difficult, but it is the most important thing to calculate first because it enables the best pitchers to attain a PB: 2-9 that keeps 83% of all plate appearances on the pitcher's card where the worst result is a single, to an average PB: 4-7 that keeps it on his card 50% of the time, to a PB: 2-4 that only keeps action on his card 17% of the time.

To determine the pitcher's PB, divide the pitchers ERA by the average League ERA (3.97 during the 2022 MLB season). Round to the nearest 10th, and compare that on this table to determine which of the seven PB ratings the pitcher gets.

You can also use FIPs instead of ERA's in this formula, and you can adjust each pitchers ERA by their home ballpark factor.

ERA / Lg ERAPitcher PB
0.6 or lower2 to 9
0.72 to 8
0.82 to 7
0.9 to 1.14 to 7
1.22 to 6
1.32 to 5
1.4 or higher2 to 4

Step 2

Determine how many hits, strikeouts and walks will appear on the pitcher's card in the range of 64 numbers from 11-88 (this is a base 8 system, so skip numbers that end in 9 or 0).

Step 2a - Batters Faced

First you need a pitcher's BATTERS FACED for the rest of the formulas. If you don't have that stat, then use the following formula to estomate it: (IP*3 + H + W) = BATTERS FACED

Step 2b - Calculate Hits

Hits divided by Batters Faced.

... then find on this table in the column based on his PB column. The hits on each pitcher's card starts with 11, and then goes to the number on this chart. The average pitcher number on the table below is 23, so the average card would have hits on 11-23.

H / BF   PB 2-4   PB 2-5   PB 2-6   PB 4-7   PB 2-7   PB 2-8   PB 2-9
14%  11 12 13141516
15% 11 12 13 14151617
16% 12 13 14 15161718
17% 13 14 15 16171821
18% 14 15 16 17182121
19% 15 16 17 18212222
20% 16 17 18 21222222
21% 17 18 21 22232323
22% 23 23 23 23232323
23% 24 24 24 24242424
24% 25 25 25 25252525
25% 26 26 26 26262626
26% 27 27 27 27272727
27% 28 28 28 28282828
28% 31 31 31 31313131
29% 32 32 32 32323232
30% 33 33 33 33333333
31% 34 34 34 34343434
32% 35 35 35 35353535
33% 36 36 36 36363636
34% 37 37 37 37373737
35% 38 38 38 38383838

Step 2c - Balks

Normally do not put a number by the BK: item that appears after the highest hit number. There were only 122 balks in 44,000 plate appearances this year, so leave it blank unless you know a pitcher had a balk during the season, if he did, then you can add one number after the hits on the card.

Step 2d - Strikeouts

Strikeouts divided by Batters faced.

... then find on this table under the pitcher's PB column. Once you know the count on the table below, add that many strike numbers starting right after the hits, and the average card at the top shows that the average strikeout range on the card is 24-44. You need to skip the numbers that end in 9 or 0, so there is no 29, 30, 39 or 40.

K / BF   PB 2-4    PB 2-5    PB 2-6    PB 4-7    PB 2-7    PB 2-8    PB 2-9
9% 1 1 1 1 3 5 8
10% 2 2 2 2 4 6 9
11% 3 3 3 3 5 7 9
12% 4 4 4 4 6 8 10
13% 6 6 6 6 7 9 11
14% 7 7 7 7 8 10 11
15% 8 8 8 8 9 11 12
16% 9 9 9 9 10 12 13
17% 11 11 11 11 12 13 14
18% 12 12 12 12 13 13 14
19% 13 13 13 13 14 14 15
20% 14 14 14 14 15 15 16
21% 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
22% 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
23% 19 19 19 18 18 18 18
24% 21 20 20 19 19 19 18
25% 23 22 22 21 20 20 19
26% 25 24 23 22 21 21 20
27% 27 26 25 23 23 22 21
28% 28 27 26 24 24 22 21
29% 30 29 28 26 25 23 22
30% 32 31 29 27 26 24 23
31% 32 32 31 28 27 25 23
32% 32 32 32 29 28 26 24
33% 32 32 32 31 29 27 25
34% 32 32 32 32 30 28 25
35% 32 32 32 32 31 29 26
36% 32 32 32 32 32 30 27
37% 32 32 32 32 32 31 28
38% 32 32 32 32 32 31 28
39% 32 32 32 32 32 32 29
40% 32 32 32 32 32 32 30
41% 32 32 32 32 32 32 30
42% 32 32 32 32 32 32 31
43% 32 32 32 32 32 32 32

Step 2e - Walks

Walks divided by Batters Faced.

... then apply to the table below using the column with the pitcher's PB.

W / BF       PB 2-4   PB 2-5   PB 2-6   PB 4-7   PB 2-7   PB 2-8   PB 2-9
1% - - - - - - 0
2% - - 1 1 1 1 1
3% - 1 1 2 2 1 1
4% 2 2 3 3 3 2 2
5% 5 5 4 4 4 3 3
6% 8 7 6 5 5 4 4
7% 11 9 8 6 6 5 5
8% 14 12 9 7 7 6 6
9% 15 13 10 8 8 7 7
10% 16 14 11 9 9 8 8
11% 17 15 12 10 9 9 8
12% 18 16 13 11 10 10 9
13% 19 17 14 12 11 10 9
14% 20 17 15 13 12 11 10
15% 21 18 16 14 13 12 11
16% 22 19 17 15 14 13 12
17% 23 20 18 16 15 14 13
18% 24 21 19 17 16 15 14
19% 24 22 20 18 17 16 15
20% 24 22 20 19 18 17 16
21% 24 22 21 20 19 18 17
22% 24 23 22 21 20 19 18
23% 24 23 22 22 21 20 19
24% 24 23 23 23 22 21 20
25% 24 24 24 24 23 22 21
26% 24 24 24 24 24 23 22

Step 2f - Wild Pitches

There were 1606 wild pitches out of 44,000 batters faced. Not too many, but just add 1 number after the last walk number. When a wild pitch comes up in a game, if no one on base it is changed to an OUT. If someone is on base then roll a one-sided die again an a 1-2 is a wild pitch but a 3-6 is an OUT (same process if a balk were to occur).

Step 2g - Clutch Defense - Catcher (CD-C)

Always add the next two numbers in the CD-C range, which means the catcher needs to make a clutch defensive play if anyone is on base (otherwise it is an OUT). After the CD-C numbers, the next number through 88 is an OUT.

Alternate to Steps 1 and 2 for a PB 4-7

The table above is pretty close to accurate. The actual formula this year for a PB: 4-7 that would be exactly accurate is all formulas:

(IP*3 + H + W) / 128 = Factor

(Hits Allowed / Factor) - 17

(Strikeouts / Factor) - 11

(Walks / Factor) - 3

If you do this, just note it will give you an accurate count for all PB 4-7 pitchers, but then look at the table for how the counts vary for other PBs.

The average number of strikeouts on pitchers cards each year is 17, and this year the average for batters is 11, meaning between pitchers and batters the average should be 28 hits per 128 random numbers. The hits are the reverse, the average on a pitchers card is 11, and the average on a batters card is 17 (11-31) for the same 28 of 128. The average walks on a pitchers card is 7, and just 3 on a batters card for an average of 10 total. This reflects today's game, as in 2022 MLB play there were 39,675 hits, 40,812 strikeouts and only 14,853 walks. Hits should once again shoot above strikeouts next year when left handed pull hits start getting hits again with only two infielders allowed to the right of second base and both of their feet required to be on the dirt - meaning no more "short right fielder" position and thus many more 1B9s for left handed batters.

Step 3 - Stamina

At this point the card is created, except that we need to know how long the pitcher can pitch before he loses his endurance and must be replaced.

Factor A = Innings Pitched + Runs Allowed + Hits Allowed + Walks Allowed

Factor B = Games Pitched + Games Started + Games Started

In factor B, this means that if a pitcher pitched just one game and it was not a start, then his factor would be "1."

If he pitched just one game but it was a start, then this factor would add up to "3."

RR (Endurance when a pitcher is in relief) = Factor A divided by Factor B

SR (Endurance when a pitcher starts) = RR time 3 (so if RR is 4, then SR is 12).

The SR/RR is the traditional number used in the game to decide when a pitcher must be removed. However, I also take Innings Pitched divided by Games Pitched, round it up and then add 1 for the Maximum innings a pitcher can stay in the game even if his SR or RR has not run out.

This is it for calculating any Statis-Pro pitcher you want to create.