Big Ten Boasts BY FAR the Best Player in Edey in the Return of Value Add Basketball Rankings

All-Big Ten Conf	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Zach Edey	Purdue	13.17	125.9	94.5	1-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Jalen Pickett	Penn St.	9.66	118.7	101.1	10-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Trayce Jackson-Davis	Indiana	9.45	118.5	97.2	4-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Cam Spencer	Rutgers	8.66	119.4	90.8	19-15, Poss 19.8%
Hunter Dickinson	Michigan	8.14	116.3	97.4	18-16, nba 53 in 2024
2nd T-Big Ten Conf	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Boo Buie	Northwestern	7.96	106.4	94.3	7-seed, 22-12 (PG), Poss 28.6%
Joey Hauser	Michigan St.	7.84	121.4	96.6	7-seed, 21-13, Poss 19.5%
Jahmir Young	Maryland	7.76	106.7	95.6	8-seed, 22-13 (PG), Poss 29.4%
Terrence Shannon	Illinois	7.57	111.9	94.9	9-seed, 20-13, nba 43 in 2024
Mason Gillis	Purdue	7.48	121.5	94.5	1-seed, 29-6, Poss 16.6%
HM-Big Ten Conf	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Keisei Tominaga	Nebraska	7.43	119.6	98.8	16-16, Poss 21.3%
Caleb Furst	Purdue	7.33	121.9	94.5	1-seed, 29-6, Poss 15.8%
Zed Key	Ohio St.	6.56	117	101.6	16-19, Poss 23.1%
Kris Murray	Iowa	6.53	118.3	104.6	8-seed, 19-14, nba 23 in 2023
Seth Lundy	Penn St.	6.46	117.5	101.1	10-seed, 23-14, nba 46 in 2023
Steven Crowl	Wisconsin	6.46	109	94.1	20-15, Poss 23.2%
Brice Sensabaugh	Ohio St.	6.34	112	101.6	16-19, nba 28 in 2023
Miller Kopp	Indiana	6.05	125.2	97.2	4-seed, 23-12, Poss 10.9%
Filip Rebraca	Iowa	6.05	118.9	104.6	8-seed, 19-14, Poss 21.3%
Payton Sandfort	Iowa	5.88	117.3	104.6	8-seed, 19-14, Poss 22.7%
Connor McCaffery	Iowa	5.34	123.9	104.6	8-seed, 19-14, Poss 12.1%

Above is a very late All-Big Ten Conference team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

The Big Ten boasted the second most top 300 players just behind the ACC, and that list starts with by far the best college basketball player last year and this, 7-foot-4 Zach Edey of Purdue. This doesn't mean Edey will be a dominant NBA player - he is projected to go at the end of the second round because the fast breaks in the NBA won't wait for him - but in college he is the guy who dominates both ends. While Purdue took an early exit last year - so did UVa the year before they won the national title, and this seems a great chance to end the stunning streak of the Big Ten not winning a title yet this Century (Michigan State's 2000 title is technically the last year of the 19th century).

What an incredible move to grab four of the best Pac-12 teams to basically combined the old Rose Bowl showdown into one conference. Both USC and UCLA have made Elite 8 runs in the last few years, and would give the conference 10 NCAA bids last year if they were already in the conference. Look down the current Pomeroy rankings on this chart - only one of the 16 teams would be outside the top 82 (Minnesota) in addition to Purdue being No. 1. Next season should be the greatest conference tournament in the history of college basketball.

Team	2023	2024	2025	Seed23	Rnk24
Illinois	B10	B10	B10	9	29
Indiana	B10	B10	B10	4	79
Iowa	B10	B10	B10	8	49
Maryland	B10	B10	B10	8	57
Michigan	B10	B10	B10		39
Michigan St.	B10	B10	B10	7	22
Minnesota	B10	B10	B10		107
Nebraska	B10	B10	B10		42
Northwestern	B10	B10	B10	7	59
Ohio St.	B10	B10	B10		50
Oregon	P12	P12	B10		37
Penn St.	B10	B10	B10	10	82
Purdue	B10	B10	B10	1	1
Rutgers	B10	B10	B10		63
UCLA	P12	P12	B10	2	31
USC	P12	P12	B10	10	30
Washington	P12	P12	B10		61
Wisconsin	B10	B10	B10		23

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season

 

The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony Davis, Jon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 

All-American 1st Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Zach Edey	Purdue	13.17	125.9	94.5	1-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)	Connecticut	11.37	122.6	90.9	4-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)	Houston	11.25	123.4	90.4	1-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan Kalkbrenner	Creighton	10.80	133.4	93.2	6-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)	Utah St.	10.72	127.7	98.9	10-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Tylor Perry (K-State)	North Texas	10.37	124.3	94.1	31-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)	Alabama	10.23	117.0	88.2	1-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)	Akron	9.94	121.9	103.4	22-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan Roberts	Houston	9.90	127.9	90.4	1-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)	Connecticut	9.88	121.2	90.9	4-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)	UCLA	9.80	113.1	88	2-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)	Penn St.	9.66	118.7	101.1	10-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)	UAB	9.64	114.7	97.9	29-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler Kolek	Marquette	9.63	118	96.7	2-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago Vescovi	Tennessee	9.52	114.2	87.5	4-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Max Abmas (Texas)	Oral Roberts	9.47	120.2	102.2	12-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)	Indiana	9.45	118.5	97.2	4-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan Young	Duke	9.37	128.7	93.9	5-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)	Memphis	9.24	111.1	96.1	8-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)	Gonzaga	9.21	119.6	99.3	3-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Markquis Nowell (gone)	Kansas St.	8.92	111	95	3-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)	Xavier	8.87	119.2	98.6	3-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)	Kentucky	8.83	122.6	98.8	6-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)	Louisiana	8.74	131.2	102.9	13-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)	Liberty	8.68	114.5	97.5	27-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Azuolas Tubelis	Arizona	8.68	116.1	96.3	2-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)	Rutgers	8.66	119.4	90.8	19-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)	Texas	8.66	116.3	92.1	2-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe Coles	TCU	8.64	118.4	94.3	6-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie Ellis	USC	8.56	113.3	97.5	10-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%

Rick Berry's Miami vs. Izzo' MSU National Champs

After a few days of updating the www.valueaddbasketball.com ratings for the current 4,200 players, we went back to our all-time tournament using the Value Add Basketball Game cards for Rick Berry and his fast paced Miami 1965 and the last Big Ten National Champs - 2000 Michigan State. While this Spartans teams did not have the memorable superstars from their other two teams in our game who did very well in our first tournament - Draymond Green and Magic Johnson - but their leading scorer Morris Peterson was a great 3-point shooter who hit one of the greatest buzzer beaters in NBA history  (watch here).

Results of Miami vs Michigan State below the list of fast-paced teams below.

After noting that three of the seven best players in American right now are from the Big Ten in this blog, it is amazing that this 2000 Michigan State team was the 21st Big Ten national champ of the 20th century but no Big Ten team has won it all yet in the 21st century. We do rank one current Miami FL player in this top 10 of the ACC and another with a good shot at the NBA, but of course Rick Berry's 1965 Miami FL team that went 22-4 while outscoring teams 98-84 was an independent.

We estimate Miami played at the second fastest pace of the 128 great teams in our game, which means we use an extra sheet to play an extra 18 possessions in our game above the normal game as shown on the scoresheets below. These are the only teams for which we add possessions in our games - if neither of these teams are playing then the game plays out the last 44-53 possessions (depending on how many fouls in the final five minutes) on one sheet after assuming a 20-20 score through 22 possessions.

High Pace Team	80+ Poss
Loyola Marymount 1990	26
Miami FL 1965	18
VMI 2007	10
Jacksonville 1970	10
St. Bonaventure 1970	7
Kentucky 1970	5
Niagara 1970	5
Michigan 1965	5
Illinois 1989	4
Savannah State 2018	3
VMI 2010	3
Duke 2001	3
Georgia Tech 1990	2
Savannah State 2017	1
DePaul 1980	1

Results: 

If you follow the scoresheet below, the extra 18 possessions are played on the extra sheets and for those possessions the top line of starters on each team card (see player cards below for both teams) play half the possessions while the bottom line of five reserves play the other half (the next nine). At the end of the extra sheet the score was 48-42 Michigan State as you can see from the running score to start the full sheet that would normally start the game at 20-20.

With five minutes to play in the game Izzo's defense had held Berry to 21 points but Miami had cut the score from double digits for much of the second half to 90-84.

With 5:49 (10 possessions to go) Berry scored to make it 88-84. On their next possession Berry drew a foul which first created an extra possession (in the last 5 minutes a foul or steal and fast break creates an extra possession below the diagonal) and then when he hit both free throws (he makes them on a 1-17 on the 20-sided die or 85% of the time) the margin was down to 4 points again - 92-88.

The Spartans finally got two straight stops and took a 94-88 lead on AJ Granger's offensive rebound and score. Then Michigan State's leading scorer, Morris Peterson, came through with the biggest play of the game when he hit a 3-pointer and was fouled, completing the 4-point play to make it 98-88 and MSU held on for a 108-104 win to advance.

While not famous like Berry, Peterson became a great 3-point shooter that last year during Michigan State's title run, and for another decade in the NBA. While in the NBA he hit one of the greatest buzzer beaters ever, when the Raptors appeared to have lost down three when the Wizards Mike Ruffin intercepted a pass and threw it up in the air to kill the final ticks. In a play you need to watch here to believe, Peterson waited for it to come down, caught it, and made an insane contested lefthanded 3-pointer while twisting his body to beat the buzzer.

Peterson's heroics in this simulated game against one of the fastest paced teams in history and he scored 33 points in our up-and-down high possession game. This was the other extreme from the actual national semifinals when he overcame one of the slowest paced opponents - the Wisconsin Badgers stall that held the Spartans to a 19-17 lead at halftime. In that game Peterson opened the second half with 10 points in a 13-2 run that led MSU to the title game where they beat Florida for the national championship.

Here is our scoresheet, followed by pictures of the two teams cards from the 128 teams available for free by clicking on the Value Add Basketball Game.

Big Ten Conference Top 15 Men’s Basketball Players To Date

 For Immediate Release

John Pudner, 404.606.3163, johnp@takebackaction.org

Big Ten Conference Top 15 Men’s Basketball Players To Date

“Value Add Basketball is happy to provide the early list of the conference’s top 15 men’s  basketball players based on proven analytics used by NBA teams for draft prep,as well as writers at Sports Illustrated, ESPN, NBC Sports, Fox Sports,” said John Pudner, the inventor of the system.”

“Seven of 14 Big Ten teams feature a player with more than a 70 percent chance of making the NBA, and that does not even include Ohio State and the top player in the league - EJ Liddell. Liddell leads three Big Ten players in the top seven players, placing 4th, while Iowa’s Keegan Murray ranks 5th and Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis ranks 7th.”

“The All-Big Ten team would be completed by Purdue’s Jaden Ivey, the top NBA prospect at 95% and 4th in the conference in Value Add (8.58) and Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson 5th. Wisconsin’s Johnny Davis ranks as the 19th most valuable player in the country, which would make him 1st team All-Conference in all 31 other conference but leaves him as the 6th best player in the loaded Big Ten.”

You can click on this google doc with information on all 4,000+ players prior to it being posted on www.valueaddbasketball.com. You can also click here for the top 100 players in the country.

Information includes each player’s chance of making the NBA, his Value Add Rating for how many points he impacts a typical game (roughly 10 points is All-American level). The key to the table is: Rank = the player's conference ranking, Value Add = how many points he improves his team over a replacement player, Class = if he is in his 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th and final year of eligibility, Ht = his height, AdjD = how many points he takes away from opponents, and NBA = his percent chance of making the NBA.

Feel free to use any information contained in these statements as wanted, and email (johnp@takebackaction.org), or text/call 404.606.3163 for any questions or additional quotes from John Pudner.

Rank	B10	Team	Value Add	Class	Ht	AdjD	NBA
1	EJ Liddell	Ohio St.	9.88	Jr	6'7"	-3.06	49%
2	Keegan Murray	Iowa	9.61	So	6'8"	-2.65	78%
3	Trayce Jackson-Davis	Indiana	9.39	So	6'9"	-3.75	71%
4	Jaden Ivey	Purdue	8.58	So	6'4"	-2.66	95%
5	Hunter Dickinson	Michigan	8.39	So	7'1"	-3.07	26%
6	Johnny Davis	Wisconsin	8.32	So	6'5"	-2.59	86%
7	Brad Davison	Wisconsin	7.78	Sr	6'4"	-1.37	1%
8	Payton Willis	Minnesota	7.55	Sr	6'4"	-1.83	1%
9	Pete Nance	Northwestern	7.31	Sr	6'10"	-3	1%
10	Hakim Hart	Maryland	7.14	Jr	6'8"	-1.94	1%
11	Trevion Williams	Purdue	7.09	Sr	6'10"	-3.55	26%
12	Ron Harper	Rutgers	6.98	Sr	6'6"	-2.62	31%
13	Eli Brooks	Michigan	6.96	Sr	6'1"	-1.76	1%
14	Jamari Wheeler	Ohio St.	6.93	Sr	6'1"	-3.5	1%
15	Kofi Cockburn	Illinois	6.74	Jr	7'0	-2.76	40%
Def	Marcus Bingham	Michigan St.	6.69	Sr	7'0	-4.26	1%
Def	Trent Frazier	Illinois	6.74	Sr	6'2"	-3.9	1%
Def	Caleb McConnell	Rutgers	2.96	Sr	6'7"	-3.38	1%
Def	Race Thompson	Indiana	6.05	Jr	6'8"	-3.18	1%
Def	John Harrar	Penn St.	6.34	Sr	6'9"	-2.99	1%
NBA	Caleb Houstan	Michigan	3.36	Fr	6'8"	-1.56	83%
NBA	Gabe Brown	Michigan St.	6.08	Sr	6'8"	-1.14	45%
NBA	Malaki Branham	Ohio St.	0.94	Fr	6'5"	-0.86	45%
NBA	Bryce McGowens	Nebraska	3.32	Fr	6'7"	-0.79	91%
NBA	Max Christie	Michigan St.	2.97	Fr	6'6"	-0.74	90%
NBA	Frankie Collins	Michigan	0.86	Fr	6'1"	-0.73	28%