Thursday, November 23, 2023

Big 12 Best Top to Bottom and the Return of Value Add Basketball Rankings

All-Big 12 Conf        Team               Value   AdjO   AdjD     Notes                                           
Markquis NowellKansas St.8.92111953-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Sir'Jabari RiceTexas8.66116.392.12-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe ColesTCU8.64118.494.36-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Dylan DisuTexas8.48119.192.12-seed, 29-9, Poss 20.3%
Kalib BooneOklahoma St.8.12112.891.920-16, Poss 24.5%
2nd T-Big 12 ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Osun OsunniyiIowa St.8.06112.9916-seed, 19-14, Poss 23.1%
Brock CunninghamTexas7.89128.692.12-seed, 29-9, Poss 13.4%
Adam FlaglerBaylor7.31120.4101.63-seed, 23-11, Poss 22.9%
Jalen WilsonKansas7.06106.291.81-seed, 28-8, nba 51 in 2023
Jalen BridgesBaylor7.03124.9101.63-seed, 23-11, Poss 17.3%
HM-Big 12 ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
LJ CryerBaylor6.33118.1101.63-seed, 23-11, nba 49 in 2024
Erik StevensonWest Virginia5.83107.998.19-seed, 19-15, Poss 28.9%
Keyonte GeorgeBaylor3.27102.5101.63-seed, 23-11, nba 16 in 2023

Above is a very late All-Big 12 Conference team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

While we will note in the next post that the Big East has the most talent at the top, which played out in the best tournament of any conference last year, the Big 12 is the best top to bottom. It is the only conference in which every team is in the top 100, so no team has the occasional easier game like Big East teams do when they play DePaul or Georgetown - neither in the top 150.

The stability of replacing Texas, which had flirted strongly with the Big Ten and Pac-12 and would not accept equal revenue distribution from the rest of the Big 12, with the Brigham Young program that has long been coveted may make realignment a long-term blessing. Like Notre Dame being coveted for the national Catholic following, the BYU as the flagship for Latter Day Saints members cannot be overstated - and it doesn't hurt that BYU is now ranked 12th by Pomeroy.

For Texas departure to also open a gold plated hoops power like Arizona in addition to Utah and Colorado whose entire campus is lit up with athletics in light of Deion Sanders - it looks like the Big 12 could stay atop the basketball conference rankings for a long time.

If the 2025 alignment were in place last year, the Big 12 would have had five 3-seeds or better, losing Texas but adding Arizona and Houston to Baylor, Kansas and K-State.

Team                   2023     2024    2025    Seed23  Rnk24
ArizonaP12P12B1224
Arizona St.P12P12B1211113
BaylorB12B12B12311
BYUWCCB12B12 12
CincinnatiAmerB12B12 36
ColoradoP12P12B12 34
HoustonAmerB12B1212
Iowa St.B12B12B12617
KansasB12B12B1217
Kansas St.B12B12B12340
OklahomaB12B12SEC 24
Oklahoma St.B12B12B12 90
TCUB12B12B12625
TexasB12B12SEC232
Texas TechB12B12B12 58
UCFAmerB12B12 66
UtahP12P12B12 46
West VirginiaB12B12B12997

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season
 
The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony DavisJon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 
All-American 1st Team    Team               Value    AdjO  AdjDNotes                                                
Zach EdeyPurdue13.17125.994.51-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)Connecticut11.37122.690.94-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)Houston11.25123.490.41-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan KalkbrennerCreighton10.80133.493.26-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)Utah St.10.72127.798.910-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Tylor Perry (K-State)North Texas10.37124.394.131-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)Alabama10.23117.088.21-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)Akron9.94121.9103.422-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan RobertsHouston9.90127.990.41-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)Connecticut9.88121.290.94-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)UCLA9.80113.1882-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)Penn St.9.66118.7101.110-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)UAB9.64114.797.929-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler KolekMarquette9.6311896.72-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago VescoviTennessee9.52114.287.54-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Max Abmas (Texas)Oral Roberts9.47120.2102.212-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)Indiana9.45118.597.24-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan YoungDuke9.37128.793.95-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)Memphis9.24111.196.18-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)Gonzaga9.21119.699.33-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Markquis Nowell (gone)Kansas St.8.92111953-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)Xavier8.87119.298.63-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)Kentucky8.83122.698.86-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)Louisiana8.74131.2102.913-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)Liberty8.68114.597.527-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Azuolas TubelisArizona8.68116.196.32-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)Rutgers8.66119.490.819-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)Texas8.66116.392.12-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe ColesTCU8.64118.494.36-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie EllisUSC8.56113.397.510-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%

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