Tuesday, November 28, 2023

Winslow 23/10 Mismatch Gives 2015 Duke 75-73 Win vs. Marquette 2023

 Kam Jones sent Marquette to our Sweet 16 of new Value Add Basketball Game teams as one of the only players who could have avoided a turnover on a "41" roll to then hit a 3-pointer at the horn to beat Creighton 94-93 and set up a game with Duke's 2015 national champs. 

While Marquette had a disappointing 2nd round loss to Michigan State last year and Duke exploded to the title in 2015 - heading into that tournament Duke was ranked #5 by the AP and #6 at www.kenpom.com while basically the same team right now is ranked #3 by the AP and #5 at www.kenpom.com after Tuesday night's win vs. Southern - which I attended.

The mismatch appears to be based on NBA talent, where Duke 2015 may be the only team in our game with eight NBA players. However, even this is interesting since we mark players as "NBA" if they either played in the league or are forecast to go in one of the next two NBA drafts at NBADraft.net.  Marquette had only one NBA player in the game in Olivier-Maxence Prosper, however that changed recently. Kam Jones moved into a projected 2025 2nd round pick, and then this week he was moved up to a projected 2024 projected pick and Oso Ighodaro shot all the way to the top of the 2nd round in the 2024 draft and on the verge of being projected as a 1st rounder.

In this game, Marquette led only a few times in a back-and-forth stretch starting with 22 possessions left (13:11) when Olivier-Maxence Prosper scored to make it 52-50 Marquette, through the 16th possession left when Justise Winslow stole a pass and scored on the fast break to put Duke ahead for good 57-56.

As great as Jones' card is, a mismatch was created because Marquette starts three pure guards with little rebounding, while the 6'6 powerful Winslow is one of three overpowering frontline Duke players (6'11 Jahlil Okafor and 6'9 Amile Jefferson are the others even after 7'0 Marshall Plumlee plays the opening minutes. When a defensive rebound opportunity came to Jones on the rebound chart he never got it because his 1-0 range (meaning no roll on the 6-sided die), meaning Winslow always go the offensive rebound, while when the rebound chart came to the chart gave the rebound chart gave Winslow the chance as the offensive small forward he also got it with his 1-6. 

Note on the scoresheet that every other possession the ball automatically goes to a defensive player, so when Duke missed on possession 27 and 6 the rebound they went to Jones. However, Winslow towered over Jones to grab eight rebounds to those two and this included sticking it back in at the half for a 34-32 lead, and twice again in the second half. But the true killer was when Okafor grabbed an offensive rebound and kicked it out to Winslow, who hit a 3-pointer due to s shot off an offensive rebound lowering the 20-sided die one number which meant a "3" was a 3-pointer made instead of a 2-pointer  to give Duke a 65-58 lead with 12 possessions (6:26) left in the game. 

Marquette would rally to cut it within 71-73, and fouled Amile Jefferson twice at the end for a chance at the win. Jefferson is only a 1-11 on the 20-sided die to make a free throw (55%) but he hit all four at the end to pull out the 75-73 win. Here is the box score and photo of the sheet, followed by the entire Sweet 16 match-ups.  

Pos     Stam 14-seed Marquette 2023 (73) PtsRebStlBlkFlsHtNBAActual Stats                     
1-PG42Tyler Kolek1331016'3 12.9 Pts, 4.1 Reb, 7.5 Ast
2-SG27Stevie Mitchell613016'2 7.1 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 1.0 Ast
3-SF37Kameron Jones1442026'4NBA15.1 Pts, 3.6 Reb, 2.0 Ast
4-PF36Olivier-Maxence Prosper1150016'8NBA12.5 Pts, 4.7 Reb, 0.7 Ast
5-C40Oso Ighodaro1071346'9NBA11.4 Pts, 5.9 Reb, 3.3 Ast
1-PG4Sean Jones610015'10 3.6 Pts, 0.8 Reb, 1.1 Ast
2-SG15Chase Ross211016'4 4.6 Pts, 1.7 Reb, 0.8 Ast
3-SF15David Joplin721046'7 9.2 Pts, 3.2 Reb, 0.8 Ast
4-PF0Keeyan Itejere210016'9 0.8 Pts, 0.5 Reb, 0.0 Ast
5-C4Ben Gold210016'11 2.7 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.2 Ast
 220Total Turnovers 1273269317   
PosStam6-seed Duke 2015 (75)PtsRebStlBlkFlsHtNBA  Actual Stats 
1-PG44Tyus Jones1023016'1NBA11.8 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 5.6 Ast
2-SG44Quinn Cook821026'2NBA15.3 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 2.6 Ast
3-SF37Justise Winslow23103126'6NBA12.6 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 2.1 Ast
4-PF37Jahlil Okafor890046'11NBA17.3 Pts, 8.5 Reb, 1.3 Ast
5-C24Amile Jefferson830316'9NBA6.1 Pts, 5.8 Reb, 0.8 Ast
1-PG4Rasheed Sulaimon210016'5 7.5 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 1.8 Ast
2-SG20Matt Jones421016'5 6.0 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 1.0 Ast
3-SF5Grayson Allen211016'4NBA4.4 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.4 Ast
4-PF5Marshall Plumlee610017'0NBA2.2 Pts, 2.4 Reb, 0.3 Ast
5-C0Semi Ojeleye210016'8NBA3.0 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 0.2 Ast
 220Total Turnovers 1273329415  Game Turnovers 12

Sweet 16 - New Value Add Basketball Teams

East Region: #1 Seed Connecticut 2023 with  Adama Sanogo beat #17 seed Duke 2022 with Wendell Moore, 80-77 to advance to East Region title game. The opponent will be the winner of ...

#8 seed Gonzaga 2023 Drew Timme vs. #9 Kansas 2022 Ochai Agbaji.

South Region: #4 seed Tennessee 2023 Santiago Vescovi vs. #13 Texas 2023 Marcus Carr with winner facing winner of surprise #5 seed Colorado 2021 McKinley Wright vs #21 seed Miami 2023 Norchad Omier.

Midwest Region: #2 seed Rutgers 1976 Phil Sellers won 84-74 over #18 seed Stanford 2008 Brook Lopez and will play in Midwest title game against winner of ...

#7 seed SMU 2017 Semi Ojeleye vs. #10 Xavier 2023 Jack Nunge.

West Region - Duke 2015 Justise Winslow won 75-73 over Marquette 2023 Tyler Kolek and gets winner of ...

 #3 Houston Quentin Grimes vs. #19 UNC 2022 Armando Bacot .

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