Thursday, November 23, 2023

Big East Returns Most Dominant All-Americans in Return of Value Add Basketball Rankings

All-Big East Conf         Team             Value   AdjO   AdjD    Notes
Adama SanogoConnecticut11.37122.690.94-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Ryan KalkbrennerCreighton10.80133.493.26-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Jordan HawkinsConnecticut9.88121.290.94-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
Tyler KolekMarquette9.6311896.72-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Souley BoumXavier8.87119.298.63-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
2nd T-Big East ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Joel SorianoSt. John's7.95120.19818-15, Poss 22.4%
Oso IghodaroMarquette7.93123.896.72-seed, 29-7, Poss 18.2%
Ed CroswellProvidence7.79123.3100.811-seed, 21-12, Poss 21.3%
Alex KarabanConnecticut7.7712490.94-seed, 31-8, nba 32 in 2024
Jack NungeXavier7.73120.298.63-seed, 27-10, Poss 21.9%
HM-Big East ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Eric DixonVillanova7.25116.399.717-17, Poss 25.6%
Zach FreemantleXavier6.04110.998.63-seed, 27-10, Poss 24.7%
Umoja GibsonDePaul5.87110.9105.210-23 (PG), Poss 24.1%

Above is a very late All-Big East Conference team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

Simply put, the Big East returns the most dominant conference based on having four of the top 10 returning players in the country according to the Value Add Basketball calculations. The Big East not only has four of the top 10 returning players in the country, but just misses having three different teams with two of the top 10 returning players.

Cam Spencer transferred to UConn as a top 10 All-American, and joins Ryan Karaban who just misses the top 10. 

Oso Ighodaro just missed joining Marquette's All-American point guard Tyler Kolek or Marquette would have two of the top 10 returning players.

Finally, while he hasn't shown last year's dominance yet, Steven Ashworth transferred to Creighton to join Ryan Kalkbrenner to give them two of the top 10 returning players.

Its easy to see why UConn, Marquette and Creighton were ranked in Pomeroy's top 8 until Creighton was upset on Thanksgiving. Amazing that the conference that seemed most decimated by realignment a decade ago is the most stable the past year. Then it appeared the conference was the loser and the football programs were ditching them to go from a Power 6 to a Power 5 - while instead it is the Pac-12 that is disappearing as the Big East remains as the basketball-only member of the new Power 5.

There is still talk of UConn leaving as the conference seems to have the best chance to win another title to grab a 4th title in 7 years, but even if that happens it seems Dayton (who may have been the team cost a title by the 2020 Covid cancellation) seems likely to be pulled in to keep the conference at 11. Here are the seeds from last year and current Pomeroy rankings.

Team                2023   2024   2025   Seed23  Rnk24
ButlerBEBEBE 77
ConnecticutBEBEBE43
CreightonBEBEBE613
DePaulBEBEBE 168
GeorgetownBEBEBE 174
MarquetteBEBEBE26
ProvidenceBEBEBE1147
Seton HallBEBEBE 55
St. John'sBEBEBE 71
VillanovaBEBEBE 19
XavierBEBEBE333

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season
 
The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony DavisJon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 
All-American 1st Team    Team               Value    AdjO  AdjDNotes                                                
Zach EdeyPurdue13.17125.994.51-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)Connecticut11.37122.690.94-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)Houston11.25123.490.41-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan KalkbrennerCreighton10.80133.493.26-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)Utah St.10.72127.798.910-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Tylor Perry (K-State)North Texas10.37124.394.131-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)Alabama10.23117.088.21-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)Akron9.94121.9103.422-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan RobertsHouston9.90127.990.41-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)Connecticut9.88121.290.94-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)UCLA9.80113.1882-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)Penn St.9.66118.7101.110-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)UAB9.64114.797.929-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler KolekMarquette9.6311896.72-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago VescoviTennessee9.52114.287.54-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Max Abmas (Texas)Oral Roberts9.47120.2102.212-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)Indiana9.45118.597.24-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan YoungDuke9.37128.793.95-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)Memphis9.24111.196.18-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)Gonzaga9.21119.699.33-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Markquis Nowell (gone)Kansas St.8.92111953-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)Xavier8.87119.298.63-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)Kentucky8.83122.698.86-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)Louisiana8.74131.2102.913-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)Liberty8.68114.597.527-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Azuolas TubelisArizona8.68116.196.32-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)Rutgers8.66119.490.819-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)Texas8.66116.392.12-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe ColesTCU8.64118.494.36-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie EllisUSC8.56113.397.510-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%

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