Showing posts with label UConn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label UConn. Show all posts

Friday, December 6, 2024

KS 2022 Holds Off Rally by 'Jesus' from He Got Game and CT 1996

 Ray Allen exploded for 30 points to rally 2-seed Connecticut 1996 late from double digits down, but Kansas 2022 national champs held them off for the upset. Allen starred as "Jesus" in the hoops classic He Got Game (not suitable for younger audiences), was the 52nd greatest NBA player ever, then finished with an amazing 3-pointer to bring the Miami Heat back from dead after fans had left to take the title.



Details will be added. Here is the scoresheet and players in the game at the start of the game indicated by coins (dimes get the ball twice as much as pennies). 

As the scoresheet shows, Kansas led by double digits until late in the second half with a 63-51.

However Allen and his backcourt mate Sheffield then led a quick 15-8 run to cut it to 5 with 5 minutes to play.

Sheffield and Allen hit 3-pointers and and Sheffield came up with a steal and fed Allen for a fastbreak layup in the middle if that run.

However, UConn then failed two converted on two straight possessions that could have made it a position, and when another Allen 3-pointer in the final seconds finally did cut it to 83-80, UConn had to foul, and Kansas hit both free throws for the 85-80 win to become our first elite 8 team.





Pos18-seed KansasPts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlHtsSeason Actual
1-PGDajuan Harris12052233036'15.4 Pts, 1.4 Reb, 4.2 Ast
2-SGChristian Braun1105123101NBA,6'614.1 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 2.8 Ast
3-SFOchai Agbaji21010125002NBA,6'518.8 Pts, 5.1 Reb, 1.6 Ast
4-PFJalen Wilson702346103NBA,6'811.1 Pts, 7.4 Reb, 1.8 Ast
5-CDavid McCormack6030060026'1010.6 Pts, 7.0 Reb, 0.9 Ast
1-PGJoseph Yesufu6030010016'02.1 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 1.0 Ast
2-SGRemy Martin14321120026'08.6 Pts, 3.0 Reb, 2.5 Ast
3-SFJalen Coleman-Lands2010010016'43.7 Pts, 0.7 Reb, 0.3 Ast
4-PFZach Clemence4020010016'102.1 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 0.4 Ast
5-CMitch Lightfoot2010010016'84.6 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 0.4 Ast
 Totals85331811275015  
             
Pos2-Seed UconnPts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlHtsSeason Actual
1-PGRay Allen3047443102NBA,6'523.4 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 3.3 Ast
2-SGDoron Sheffer17332232026'516.0 Pts, 4.8 Reb, 6.1 Ast
3-SFRudy Johnson6030031016'67.5 Pts, 2.7 Reb, 1.7 Ast
4-PFKirk King7112370336'99.9 Pts, 6.3 Reb, 1.0 Ast
5-CTravis Knight402006041NBA,7'09.1 Pts, 9.3 Reb, 2.1 Ast
1-PGRicky Moore6030010026'24.7 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 3.0 Ast
2-SGDion Carson2010011016'31.8 Pts, 1.3 Reb, 0.4 Ast
3-SFRashamel Jones4012210016'55.6 Pts, 1.9 Reb, 0.9 Ast
4-PFEric Hayward40200200 6'73.3 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 0.3 Ast
 Totals8082110112557136'73.3 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 0.3 Ast

Thursday, November 23, 2023

Big East Returns Most Dominant All-Americans in Return of Value Add Basketball Rankings

All-Big East Conf         Team             Value   AdjO   AdjD    Notes
Adama SanogoConnecticut11.37122.690.94-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Ryan KalkbrennerCreighton10.80133.493.26-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Jordan HawkinsConnecticut9.88121.290.94-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
Tyler KolekMarquette9.6311896.72-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Souley BoumXavier8.87119.298.63-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
2nd T-Big East ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Joel SorianoSt. John's7.95120.19818-15, Poss 22.4%
Oso IghodaroMarquette7.93123.896.72-seed, 29-7, Poss 18.2%
Ed CroswellProvidence7.79123.3100.811-seed, 21-12, Poss 21.3%
Alex KarabanConnecticut7.7712490.94-seed, 31-8, nba 32 in 2024
Jack NungeXavier7.73120.298.63-seed, 27-10, Poss 21.9%
HM-Big East ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Eric DixonVillanova7.25116.399.717-17, Poss 25.6%
Zach FreemantleXavier6.04110.998.63-seed, 27-10, Poss 24.7%
Umoja GibsonDePaul5.87110.9105.210-23 (PG), Poss 24.1%

Above is a very late All-Big East Conference team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

Simply put, the Big East returns the most dominant conference based on having four of the top 10 returning players in the country according to the Value Add Basketball calculations. The Big East not only has four of the top 10 returning players in the country, but just misses having three different teams with two of the top 10 returning players.

Cam Spencer transferred to UConn as a top 10 All-American, and joins Ryan Karaban who just misses the top 10. 

Oso Ighodaro just missed joining Marquette's All-American point guard Tyler Kolek or Marquette would have two of the top 10 returning players.

Finally, while he hasn't shown last year's dominance yet, Steven Ashworth transferred to Creighton to join Ryan Kalkbrenner to give them two of the top 10 returning players.

Its easy to see why UConn, Marquette and Creighton were ranked in Pomeroy's top 8 until Creighton was upset on Thanksgiving. Amazing that the conference that seemed most decimated by realignment a decade ago is the most stable the past year. Then it appeared the conference was the loser and the football programs were ditching them to go from a Power 6 to a Power 5 - while instead it is the Pac-12 that is disappearing as the Big East remains as the basketball-only member of the new Power 5.

There is still talk of UConn leaving as the conference seems to have the best chance to win another title to grab a 4th title in 7 years, but even if that happens it seems Dayton (who may have been the team cost a title by the 2020 Covid cancellation) seems likely to be pulled in to keep the conference at 11. Here are the seeds from last year and current Pomeroy rankings.

Team                2023   2024   2025   Seed23  Rnk24
ButlerBEBEBE 77
ConnecticutBEBEBE43
CreightonBEBEBE613
DePaulBEBEBE 168
GeorgetownBEBEBE 174
MarquetteBEBEBE26
ProvidenceBEBEBE1147
Seton HallBEBEBE 55
St. John'sBEBEBE 71
VillanovaBEBEBE 19
XavierBEBEBE333

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season
 
The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony DavisJon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 
All-American 1st Team    Team               Value    AdjO  AdjDNotes                                                
Zach EdeyPurdue13.17125.994.51-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)Connecticut11.37122.690.94-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)Houston11.25123.490.41-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan KalkbrennerCreighton10.80133.493.26-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)Utah St.10.72127.798.910-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Tylor Perry (K-State)North Texas10.37124.394.131-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)Alabama10.23117.088.21-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)Akron9.94121.9103.422-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan RobertsHouston9.90127.990.41-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)Connecticut9.88121.290.94-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)UCLA9.80113.1882-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)Penn St.9.66118.7101.110-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)UAB9.64114.797.929-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler KolekMarquette9.6311896.72-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago VescoviTennessee9.52114.287.54-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Max Abmas (Texas)Oral Roberts9.47120.2102.212-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)Indiana9.45118.597.24-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan YoungDuke9.37128.793.95-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)Memphis9.24111.196.18-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)Gonzaga9.21119.699.33-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Markquis Nowell (gone)Kansas St.8.92111953-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)Xavier8.87119.298.63-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)Kentucky8.83122.698.86-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)Louisiana8.74131.2102.913-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)Liberty8.68114.597.527-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Azuolas TubelisArizona8.68116.196.32-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)Rutgers8.66119.490.819-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)Texas8.66116.392.12-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe ColesTCU8.64118.494.36-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie EllisUSC8.56113.397.510-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%

Monday, December 5, 2022

UConn 1999 vs. Arkansas 1994 for Last All-Time Top 25 Spot

We rescheduled a few games on our Value Add Basketball Game game log in order to continue to get top teams up to at least three games played.

#24 Arkansas 1994 will now play #31 UConn 1999 as the two highest ranked teams without three games played.

The two teams that were scheduled to play those two teams will now play each other for a super matchup of big men, Shaq's LSU team against Bill Russell's San Francisco team.

UConn will still need one more game played after that to hit three games, so they will play the next highest ranked team with fewer than three games played - #39 Michigan 1965.

After those we will get up to three games played through the top 44 teams with #40 Iowa 2021 plays both #43 Illinois 1943 and then the highest scoring team ever, #41 Loyola Marymount, who is 1-1 averaging 120 points scored and 110 points allowed both games.

Pages 6 and 17 provide the cards for the biggest left Arkansas vs. UConn game.







Sunday, November 27, 2022

Okafor's UConn holds off Laettner's Duke, 3-pt and steal or foul strategy

After a back and forth battle, Emeka Okafor erupted for 13 points in the final 3 minutes of regulation and overtime to lead UConn to a 82-78 win. The big key was him hitting all 5 free throws in that stretch despite being a 50% free throw shooter (1-10 free throw made, 11-20 free throw missed, meaning only 1 in 32 times would he make 5 in a row).

UConn led 66-61 with less than a minute left, and Duke went to the 3-point strategy in a desperate attempt to rally. 

Duke Played for 3-point shot. As the Value Add Basketball Instructions state, a team can try for 3-pointers by adding one to their 3-point made range for every one number they take off the highest 2-point made range and turn into a missed 2-pointer - and you can not more than double the number of 3-pointers made. Thomas Hill (no relation to Grant Hill) normally makes 3-pointers on 1-2, then 2-pointers on 3-9, so when playing for the 3-pointer his 3-pointer range doubled to 1-4 (thus the 3 rolled was a 3-pointer rather than a 2-pointer) but because they were in the 3-point offense that means the two he added to first range lowers the 2-point range from 9 to 7, meaning a 5-7. When you do the math, you are losing points long term because you are giving up 2 points on missed 2-pointers for every 1 point you add by turning the 2-point shots into 3-point shots. It worked as T. Hill hit the 3-pointers on a "3" to make it 66-64.

Duke then played to foul. Also stated in the rules, you can go for the turnover or foul deliberately. When you do this, you roll three of the four dice - but do not role the 20-sided dice because the play will always be a turnover or a foul. In 8-sided die roll was a 5, giving the ball to Okafor, and even though they did not get a turnover (41-43 is a turnover on Okafor's card, and 11-16 was a steal on Laettner's card) they lucked into Okafor being the fouled player. He only hits on 1-10, but he made them both to make it 66-64 UConn, and as it turns out Duke would have won the game if he had missed either one. 

Duke took the 3-point offense off for their final trip. Okafor actually blocked a Duke a shot in the closing seconds, but the rebound roll was a a 3 on the 1-20 die, which means Laettner had a chance to grab the rebound with his 1-5 offensive rebound and the 6-sided die came up 4 to mean he did secure it (on a "6" it would have gone to Okafor) and then he passed to Grant Hill, who scored the game-tying basket at the end of regulation to make it 66-66 and send us to a 5-minute overtime.

Several of Ben Gordon's 5 steals were key to UConn taking the lead, and Okafor finished with a game high 29 points.

Grant Hill led Duke with 22 points while Christian Laettner added 20 with 10 rebounds. Laettner is also the only center with a 11-16 on steals, and he came up with 6 steals. 

UConn improved from #19 to #10, while Duke dropped from #9 to #20 in the all-time rankings.





Sunday, November 20, 2022

College Hoops 4th Best Conference History - Current Big East (Original BE Could Have Been Best)

The domination in our game of Villanova team that dominated the title game in 2018 for one of two titles in there years and the two UConn teams that won titles in a six year stretch is no surprise.

The biggest surprise in our first 188 all-time great games has been DePaul's 1980 squad, which stunned Kareem and UCLA in route to a 3-0 record. We assume they will end up coming down to earth, but for right now they have helped the top six teams in the Big East to a 17-7 mark and the ranking as the 4th best conference in our game so far.

Add Patrick Ewing's 1984 Georgetown team, and you can remember how the actual 1980s Big East that launched ESPN legitimately challenges the ACC for title of the top conference in the country.

You may ask why Marquette merits four teams in the game is simple - I went there and am completely biased and even wrote a book on Marquette basketball once. Obviously a great program, but so far all four teams rank slightly below average of the all-time great teams. However, most of us would argue the actual all-time great team out of Marquette was Jim Chones squad in the early 70s that went 49-1 with only a last second loss to Ohio State in the tournament, and then loss Chones to the ABA before No. 2 Marquette could make a run at the UCLA dynasty. Of course none of team Marquette teams ranked from 8 to 10 were actually in the Big East - the 2011 team led by Jimmy Butler and Jae Crowder and was in the Big East.

The Creighton 2020 team actually won our 2020 tournament we decided to play after Covid cancelled the actual tournament. They beat Duke for the title, but their six wins in that tournament did not include games against any teams in the All-Time great team.  

RnkGreat TeamYear     Key PlayerW   L  Pts     Allow  Rate
 Top 6 Big East teams  17773.168.24.7
1Villanova2018Mikal Bridges7279.470.310.8
2Connecticut2004Ben Gordon4273.564.07.0
3DePaul1980Mark Aguirre3080.367.75.6
4Connecticut1999Richard Hamilton0160.064.04.0
5Seton Hall1989John Morton1178.078.00.5
6Georgetown1984Patrick Ewing2167.365.30.4
7Georgetown2007Roy Hibbert1276.775.3-1.4
8Marquette1971Jim Chones1168.069.0-1.8
9Marquette2003Dwyane Wade2273.374.0-2.4
10Marquette1977Butch Lee1166.061.5-2.8
11St. John's1985Chris Mullin0175.076.0-2.8
12DePaul1945George Mikan0151.055.0-5.2
13Marquette2011Jimmy Butler0182.087.0-7.0
14Villanova1985Ed Pinckney0165.072.0-9.2
15Creighton2014Doug McDermott0366.380.0-9.7
16Creighton2020Ty-Shon Alexander0172.0106.0-10.2
17Butler2010Gordon Hayward0354.776.3-13.0

We invented the Value Add Basketball Game, and since then have grown it to to 135 teams of all-time great teams and players. We have played 188 games to date, and 63,000 unique visitors have clicked on the game. 
Seven current conferences have at least six all-time great teams in the game. We decided to rank those conferences based on the average rating of their top six teams so far in our games against other teams.

Click on the game to play yourself - it contains everything you need to play the Value Add Basketball game, which lets you pit any of 136 great all-time college teams against each other. To pick your two teams it is best to click on this Google doc and print the pages of the teams you want (each team is one page). I track my games on this google sheet, but play your own for free!

Sunday, December 26, 2021

Big East Conference Top 15 Men’s Basketball Players To Date

 For Immediate Release

John Pudner, 404.606.3163, johnp@takebackaction.org


Big East Conference Top 15 Men’s Basketball Players To Date


“Value Add Basketball is happy to provide the early list of the conference’s top 15 men’s  basketball players based on proven analytics used by NBA teams for draft prep,as well as writers at Sports Illustrated, ESPN, NBC Sports, Fox Sports,” said John Pudner, the inventor of the system.”


“Villanova’s Collin Gillespie is the 10th best player in the country and leads a list of an impressive 10 Big East players in the top 100 in the country. This may explain why even though the Big 12 and Big East are the top two ranked teams at www.kenpom.com, in the early season challenges the Big East split 5-5 with the Big 12 and for the first time beat the Big Ten to establish how strong the conference is this year.


“The Big East is an experienced lead with two of the best defender in the country with defending co-Big East Defender of the Year Posh Alexander of St. John’s ranking as both the second best defender and second best player in the conference. The top defender in the conference is Marquette’s Darryl Morsell, who was the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year with Maryland last year.”


“The only sure fire NBA player in the conference is Georgetown’s freshman Aminu Mohammed, though seven other players have at least a 40 percent of making the NBA, Marquette’s Justin Lewis may join them after torching UConn double teams with Morsell out to increase his chances of making the NBA to 21%.”


You can click on this google doc with information on all 4,000+ players prior to it being posted on www.valueaddbasketball.com. You can also click here for the top 100 players in the country.


Information includes each player’s chance of making the NBA, his Value Add Rating for how many points he impacts a typical game (roughly 10 points is All-American level). The key to the table is: Rank = the player's conference ranking, Value Add = how many points he improves his team over a replacement player, Class = if he is in his 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th and final year of eligibility, Ht = his height, AdjD = how many points he takes away from opponents, and NBA = his percent chance of making the NBA.


Feel free to use any information contained in these statements as wanted, and email (johnp@takebackaction.org), or text/call 404.606.3163 for any questions or additional quotes from John Pudner.


RankBETeamValue AddClassHtAdjDNBA
1Collin GillespieVillanova9.06Sr6'3"-1.745%
2Posh AlexanderSt. John's7.89So6'0-4.224%
3Javon Freeman-LibertyDePaul7.47Sr6'4"-2.921%
4Ryan KalkbrennerCreighton7.22So7'1"-1.781%
5RJ ColeConnecticut6.89Sr6'1"-1.491%
6Jack NungeXavier6.88Jr7'0-2.551%
7Justin MooreVillanova6.71Jr6'4"-2.0448%
8Colby JonesXavier6.65So6'6"-2.391%
9Darryl MorsellMarquette6.59Sr6'5"-4.544%
10Ryan HawkinsCreighton6.47Sr6'7"-1.591%
11Julian ChampagnieSt. John's6.25Jr6'8"-2.346%
12Jared RhodenSeton Hall6.02Sr6'6"-2.4945%
13Isaiah WhaleyConnecticut5.63Sr6'9"-4.61%
14David JonesDePaul5.59So6'6"-2.681%
15Nate JohnsonXavier5.52Sr6'4"-0.711%
NBAAndre JacksonConnecticut4.62So6'6"-3.4543%
NBAJustin LewisMarquette4.86Fr6'7"-2.3821%
NBAJermaine SamuelsVillanova4.52Sr6'7"-2.0420%
NBAPaul ScruggsXavier2.66Sr6'5"-1.9529%
NBAAminu MohammedGeorgetown3.61Fr6'5"-1.8881%
NBAAdama SanogoConnecticut2.45So6'9"-1.2542%
NBAJordan HawkinsConnecticut1.28Fr6'5"-0.5742%