We recorded all the Value Add Basketball Games we'd played to date on this google sheet (each score is listed twice, once for each team, so you can just look up your team alphabetically). Our team rankings for our games played replicates the way KenPom rates teams, treating their actual SRS rating minus 20 as their pre-season KenPom rating and then adjusting every time we play a game with them to get the rating below.
Because the average great team in our league had an SRS of 20 (20 points better than the average team in their season) we actually subtract 20 from the SRS we list for their KenPom rating, as you can see by Duke 2001 having an actual SRS of 33, which gives them a 13 KenPom in our game. While attempting to replicate KenPom's system (long explanation below table), we add 5 points for the game if the team wins the game and subtract 5 points if they lose.
Keep in mind the games adds about the same random aspects as a real game. For example, in our games Russ Smith and the 2013 Louisville national champs created havoc with steals to thump the 2004 champs from UConn 74-61. UConn then dominated inside the crush Mikal Bridges and Nova's 2018 champs 73-56. Then Nova handled Louisville's pressure for a 77-73 win so all went 1-1.
Despite losing a rematch to the Memphis 2008 team in our game, Kansas calculates as 1st due to destroying the other Big 12 teams in our league play for an average margin of +19 for a KenPom rating slightly higher than our All-Time Tournament Champ UCLA 1972.
Rnk | Team (Year) Player you might recognize | Pre-SRS | W | L | Win% | KenPom | SoS | Sc | All | Mar |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kansas (2008) Mario Chalmers | 27 | 5 | 1 | 0.833 | 22 | 0 | 75 | 56 | 19 |
2 | UCLA (1972) Bill Walton | 34 | 6 | 0 | 1.000 | 16 | 1 | 72 | 62 | 10 |
3 | North Carolina (2005) Sean May | 29 | 4 | 2 | 0.667 | 15 | 3 | 73 | 63 | 11 |
4 | North Carolina (1982) Michael Jordan | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0.800 | 14 | 6 | 68 | 64 | 4 |
5 | Virginia (2019) Kyle Guy | 26 | 4 | 1 | 0.800 | 14 | 3 | 73 | 65 | 7 |
6 | Duke (2001) Shane Battier | 33 | 0 | 0 | 13 | |||||
7 | Gonzaga (2017) Nigel Williams-Goss | 28 | 3 | 2 | 0.600 | 11 | 1 | 69 | 59 | 9 |
8 | Connecticut (2004) Ben Gordon | 23 | 4 | 2 | 0.667 | 11 | 0 | 74 | 64 | 10 |
9 | Indiana (1976) Scott May | 27 | 3 | 1 | 0.750 | 11 | 0 | 71 | 60 | 12 |
10 | Houston (1968) Elvin Hayes | 25 | 3 | 1 | 0.750 | 11 | 2 | 73 | 64 | 9 |
11 | Duke (2010) Jon Scheyer | 26 | 5 | 2 | 0.714 | 11 | 1 | 74 | 67 | 7 |
12 | Villanova (2018) Mikal Bridges | 27 | 6 | 2 | 0.750 | 10 | 2 | 76 | 70 | 6 |
13 | Purdue (2018) Carsen Edwards | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0.833 | 10 | 4 | 72 | 69 | 3 |
14 | UCLA (1967) Lew Alcindor | 30 | 0 | 0 | 10 | |||||
15 | Kentucky (1996) Antoine Walker | 33 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 9 | -1 | 64 | 67 | -3 |
16 | Auburn (2019) Chuma Okeke | 21 | 8 | 1 | 0.889 | 8 | -2 | 71 | 65 | 6 |
17 | Louisville (2013) Russ Smith | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0.667 | 8 | 3 | 74 | 66 | 8 |
18 | Cincinnati (1960) Oscar Robertson | 27 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 7 | 11 | 70 | 74 | -4 |
19 | Kansas (1997) Paul Pierce | 27 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 7 | -16 | 84 | 68 | 16 |
20 | Michigan St. (2009) Draymond Green | 18 | 6 | 2 | 0.750 | 7 | 3 | 72 | 70 | 1 |
21 | Duke (1992) Christian Laettner | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 6 | 2 | 72 | 65 | 7 |
22 | Oregon (2017) Dillon Brooks | 21 | 3 | 2 | 0.600 | 6 | 4 | 69 | 68 | 1 |
23 | North Carolina (1998) Vince Carter | 27 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 6 | -8 | 72 | 66 | 6 |
24 | NC State (1974) David Thompson | 26 | 2 | 1 | 0.667 | 6 | 5 | 72 | 73 | -1 |
25 | Michigan (1989) Glen Rice | 28 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 6 | 2 | 69 | 70 | -1 |
26 | Illinois (2005) Deron Williams | 25 | 3 | 2 | 0.600 | 6 | 2 | 72 | 70 | 2 |
27 | Memphis (2008) Derrick Rose | 24 | 4 | 2 | 0.667 | 6 | 1 | 69 | 66 | 3 |
28 | Houston (1983) Hakeem Olajuwon | 23 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 5 | -7 | 79 | 64 | 15 |
29 | Illinois (1989) Nick Anderson | 25 | 0 | 0 | 5 | |||||
30 | Baylor (2021) Jared Butler | 25 | 0 | 0 | 5 | |||||
31 | Michigan St. (1979) Magic Johnson | 23 | 2 | 1 | 0.667 | 5 | -1 | 70 | 63 | 8 |
32 | Kentucky (2012) Anthony Davis | 25 | 4 | 2 | 0.667 | 5 | -4 | 72 | 66 | 7 |
Rnk | Team (Year) Player you might recognize | Pre-SRS | W | L | Win% | KenPom | SoS | Sc | All | Mar |
33 | Wake Forest (1996) Tim Duncan | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0.667 | 4 | 7 | 66 | 65 | 1 |
34 | Wisconsin (2015) Frank Kaminsky | 25 | 2 | 2 | 0.500 | 4 | 2 | 65 | 63 | 2 |
35 | Oklahoma (1985) Wayman Tisdale | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0.750 | 4 | 3 | 75 | 74 | 2 |
36 | Connecticut (1999) Richard Hamilton | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 3 | 6 | 60 | 64 | -4 |
37 | Syracuse (2003) Carmelo Anthony | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0.667 | 3 | 4 | 76 | 74 | 2 |
38 | Ohio St. (1960) Jerry Lucas | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 3 | -2 | 78 | 79 | -1 |
39 | DePaul (1980) Mark Aguirre | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 3 | 12 | 82 | 64 | 18 |
40 | Loyola Marymount (1990) Bo Kimble | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 3 | -2 | 138 | 116 | 22 |
41 | Michigan (2013) Trey Burke | 22 | 2 | 3 | 0.400 | 2 | 2 | 71 | 70 | 1 |
42 | Arkansas (1994) Corliss Williamson | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 2 | 1 | 78 | 79 | -1 |
43 | Indiana (1981) Isaiah Thomas | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |||||
44 | Iowa (2021) Luka Garza | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |||||
45 | North Carolina (1982) Michael Jordan | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 2 | -2 | 72 | 70 | 2 |
46 | Seton Hall (1989) John Morton | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 2 | 3 | 78 | 78 | 0 |
47 | Cincinnati (2002) Jason Maxiell | 25 | 2 | 2 | 0.500 | 2 | -1 | 73 | 72 | 1 |
48 | Texas Tech (2019) Jarrett Culver | 23 | 3 | 2 | 0.600 | 2 | 2 | 66 | 67 | -2 |
49 | Loyola-Chicago (1963) Jerry Harkness | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 2 | -1 | 62 | 68 | -6 |
50 | Arizona (2015) Stanley Johnson | 25 | 3 | 1 | 0.750 | 1 | -5 | 75 | 71 | 5 |
51 | Georgetown (1984) Patrick Ewing | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0.667 | 1 | 1 | 67 | 65 | 2 |
52 | USC (2021) Evan Mobley | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |||||
53 | Georgetown (2007) Roy Hibbert | 20 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 1 | -1 | 77 | 75 | 1 |
54 | Pittsburgh (2009) DeJuan Blair | 22 | 1 | 3 | 0.250 | 1 | 3 | 60 | 62 | -2 |
55 | UTEP/Texas Western (1966) Bobby Joe Hill | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0.667 | 0 | 8 | 64 | 66 | -2 |
56 | Syracuse (1987) Rony Seikaly | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0.667 | 0 | -1 | 72 | 69 | 4 |
57 | Missouri (1982) Steve Stipanovich | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 0 | 1 | 70 | 66 | 4 |
58 | Purdue (1969) Rick Mount | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0 | -1 | 86 | 87 | -1 |
59 | Jacksonville (1970) Artis Gilmore | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
60 | Duke (1986) Johnny Dawkins | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0 | -5 | 106 | 108 | -2 |
61 | Marquette (2003) Dwyane Wade | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0.500 | 0 | 1 | 73 | 74 | -1 |
62 | Marquette (1971) Jim Chones | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0 | -4 | 67 | 58 | 9 |
63 | UNLV (1991) Larry Johnson | 32 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | -1 | -4 | 72 | 78 | -5 |
64 | Kansas (1957) Wilt Chamberlain | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | -1 | 3 | 68 | 74 | -7 |
Rnk | Team (Year) Player you might recognize | Pre-SRS | W | L | Win% | KenPom | SoS | Sc | All | Mar |
65 | Arizona (1997) Mike Bibby | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0.667 | -1 | 0 | 69 | 71 | -2 |
66 | Maryland (1984) Len Bias | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | -1 | 0 | 74 | 64 | 10 |
67 | Michigan (1965) Cazzie Russell | 19 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |||||
68 | Colorado (2021) McKinley Wright | 19 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |||||
69 | South Carolina (2017) Sindarius Thornwell | 18 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | -1 | -1 | 65 | 66 | 0 |
70 | Marquette (1977) Butch Lee | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | -2 | -4 | 66 | 62 | 5 |
71 | St. John's (1985) Chris Mullin | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -2 | 1 | 75 | 76 | -1 |
72 | LSU (1992) Shaquille O'Neal | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -2 | -5 | 85 | 88 | -3 |
73 | San Diego St. (2011) Kawhi Leonard | 18 | 2 | 2 | 0.500 | -2 | 1 | 69 | 72 | -3 |
74 | Holy Cross (1950) Bob Cousy | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | -2 | 3 | 108 | 106 | 2 |
75 | Kansas St. (2008) Michael Beasley | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | -2 | 2 | 75 | 76 | -1 |
76 | Creighton (2020) Ty-Shon Alexander | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | -2 | -2 | 77 | 77 | 0 |
77 | Georgia Tech (1990) Dennis Scott | 18 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |||||
78 | Kentucky (1948) Alex Groza | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | -2 | 1 | 88 | 85 | 3 |
79 | San Francisco (1956) Bill Russell | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -2 | 5 | 67 | 74 | -7 |
80 | Oklahoma St. (2004) John Lucas | 21 | 1 | 3 | 0.250 | -3 | -1 | 69 | 71 | -2 |
81 | Iowa (2002) Reggie Evans | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | -3 | 3 | 71 | 75 | -4 |
82 | Davidson (2008) Stephen Curry | 14 | 1 | 3 | 0.250 | -3 | 2 | 64 | 67 | -3 |
83 | Ohio St. (2007) Greg Oden | 22 | 2 | 4 | 0.333 | -3 | 2 | 69 | 72 | -3 |
84 | Indiana (2002) Jared Jeffries | 20 | 1 | 3 | 0.250 | -3 | 2 | 67 | 73 | -6 |
85 | Florida (2006) Joakim Noah | 21 | 3 | 3 | 0.500 | -3 | -4 | 72 | 71 | 1 |
86 | St. Joe's (2004) Jameer Nelson | 21 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | -4 | 0 | 68 | 76 | -7 |
87 | Oklahoma (2016) Buddy Hield | 20 | 1 | 3 | 0.250 | -4 | 3 | 60 | 67 | -7 |
88 | St. Bonaventure (1970) Bob Lanier | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -4 | -5 | 64 | 74 | -10 |
89 | Georgia Tech (2004) Jarrett Jack | 21 | 2 | 4 | 0.333 | -4 | 6 | 61 | 69 | -8 |
90 | DePaul (1945) George Mikan | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -4 | 8 | 51 | 55 | -4 |
91 | Wichita St. (2013) Fred VanVleet | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | -4 | 3 | 64 | 71 | -7 |
92 | Texas (2003) T.J. Ford | 19 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | -4 | 1 | 69 | 76 | -8 |
93 | West Virginia (2010) Kevin Jones | 20 | 1 | 3 | 0.250 | -4 | 1 | 70 | 76 | -6 |
94 | Virginia (1981) Ralph Sampson | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -4 | -2 | 61 | 72 | -11 |
95 | Tennessee (1977) Bernard King | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | -5 | 3 | 76 | 83 | -7 |
96 | California (1959) Jack Grout | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -5 | -1 | 69 | 71 | -2 |
Rnk | Team (Year) Player you might recognize | Pre-SRS | W | L | Win% | KenPom | SoS | Sc | All | Mar |
97 | North Carolina (1957) Lennie Rosenbluth | 15 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |||||
98 | Seattle (1958) Elgin Baylor | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -5 | 1 | 62 | 64 | -2 |
99 | Utah (1998) Andre Miller | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -5 | -3 | 69 | 79 | -10 |
100 | LSU (2006) Glen Davis | 18 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | -5 | 0 | 66 | 75 | -9 |
101 | Alabama (1977) Reggie King | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -6 | -2 | 70 | 71 | -1 |
102 | George Mason (2006) Jai Lewis | 13 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | -6 | 1 | 59 | 67 | -8 |
103 | Maryland (2002) Juan Dixon | 24 | 1 | 3 | 0.250 | -6 | 2 | 67 | 76 | -9 |
104 | Notre Dame (1981) Orlando Woolridge | 14 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |||||
105 | UCLA (2006) Jordan Farmar | 18 | 2 | 3 | 0.400 | -6 | 1 | 66 | 72 | -6 |
106 | Kansas (1988) Danny Manning | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -7 | -3 | 58 | 67 | -9 |
107 | Indiana St. (1979) Larry Bird | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -7 | -2 | 69 | 76 | -7 |
108 | South Carolina (1973) Mike Dunleavy | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -7 | 7 | 66 | 72 | -6 |
109 | Notre Dame (1970) Austin Carr | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | -7 | 2 | 67 | 77 | -10 |
110 | La Salle (1954) Tom Gola | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -7 | -2 | 67 | 76 | -9 |
111 | Oklahoma St. (1946) Bob Kurland | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -7 | -9 | 80 | 82 | -2 |
112 | Wyoming (1943) Ken Sailors | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -7 | 2 | 60 | 73 | -13 |
113 | Auburn (1984) Charles Barkley | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | -7 | -3 | 72 | 77 | -6 |
114 | West Virginia (1959) Jerry West | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -7 | -7 | 68 | 69 | -1 |
115 | Kentucky (1970) Dan Issel | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -8 | -3 | 116 | 138 | -22 |
116 | Creighton (2014) Doug McDermott | 19 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | -8 | 0 | 66 | 80 | -14 |
117 | Navy (1986) David Robinson | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -8 | 5 | 61 | 77 | -16 |
118 | Wake Forest (2005) Chris Paul | 21 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | -8 | 5 | 64 | 85 | -21 |
119 | Villanova (1985) Ed Pinckney | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -8 | -1 | 65 | 72 | -7 |
120 | Georgia (1982) Dominique Wilkins | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | -9 | 0 | 70 | 78 | -8 |
121 | VCU (2011) Bradford Burgess | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | -9 | 2 | 60 | 71 | -11 |
122 | Arizona St. (1980) Byron Scott | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -9 | 3 | 64 | 79 | -15 |
123 | Louisville (1980) Darrell Griffith | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -9 | 4 | 52 | 82 | -30 |
124 | Loyola-Chicago (2018) Cameron Krutwig | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | -10 | 3 | 59 | 75 | -16 |
125 | Butler (2010) Gordon Hayward | 15 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | -11 | 5 | 55 | 76 | -22 |
126 | LSU (1970) Pete Maravich | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -12 | 2 | 66 | 67 | -1 |
127 | Princeton (1965) Bill Bradley | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -12 | -2 | 62 | 79 | -17 |
128 | Niagara (1970) Calvin Murphy | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | -16 | 7 | 68 | 84 | -16 |
Rnk | Team (Year) Player you might recognize | Pre-SRS | W | L | Win% | KenPom | SoS | Sc | All | Mar |
Longer Explanation:
The "Pre-SRS" is the Simple Rating System number for the team for their actual season played, so a calculation of how many points better than the average team they appeared to be in their season. Since the average team in our All-Time Great Value Add Basketball Game is 20 points above their average team, we subtract 20 from that number to estimate a beginning KenPom rating for that team.
We then track the team in our game the same way KenPom does with one exception, we award or subtract an extra 5 points for which team wins and loses a game. So a team playing against 1972 UCLA gets credit for the highest Strength of Schedule (SoS) of 14 (SRS 34 - 20 = 14), and if they lost to them by 10 then they would get a "+4" for that game (Margin -10 but +14 SoS). However, because we also subtract 5 for losing they would actually get a -1 for the game.
We do this because in KenPom a team only gets a two point higher rating for winning by 1 point than by losing by 1 point - the same difference between scoring to win by 3 instead of by 1. I love KenPom's system and base a lot of my individual www.valueaddbasketball.com ratings on his team ratings, BUT for purposes of play a game I want everything to be riding on game-winning shots, so in my game missing a game-winning shot to lose by one point is a -6 but making the game-winning shot to win by 1 point is a +6.
Because a team starts with an estimated Ken-Pom 20 points lower than their Pre-season SRS, a team that has not played yet like Duke is in the ratings with a "13" and, also like KenPom, if a team has played fewer than 5 games then I give them their Pre-SRS for the balance of the five games and then average.
Team and Player: For each team we list the year and picked one of their better known players to list.
Record: Note that because we started a season of the 21st century teams first, many 20th century teams have only played a game or two, with a few at the bottom yet to play. We are playing a tournament of the new teams, and once that is done we will try to fill in and get every team up to a few games.
No comments:
Post a Comment