Friday, December 31, 2021

Est. KenPom Ratings Based On All-time Great Teams (just added four 2021 teams)

We recorded all the Value Add Basketball Games we'd played to date on this google sheet (each score is listed twice, once for each team, so you can just look up your team alphabetically). Our team rankings for our games played replicates the way KenPom rates teams, treating their actual SRS rating minus 20 as their pre-season KenPom rating and then adjusting every time we play a game with them to get the rating below.

Because the average great team in our league had an SRS of 20 (20 points better than the average team in their season) we actually subtract 20 from the SRS we list for their KenPom rating, as you can see by Duke 2001 having an actual SRS of 33, which gives them a 13 KenPom in our game. While attempting to replicate KenPom's system (long explanation below table), we add 5 points for the game if the team wins the game and subtract 5 points if they lose.

Keep in mind the games adds about the same random aspects as a real game. For example, in our games Russ Smith and the 2013 Louisville national champs created havoc with steals to thump the 2004 champs from UConn 74-61. UConn then dominated inside the crush Mikal Bridges and Nova's 2018 champs 73-56. Then Nova handled Louisville's pressure for a 77-73 win so all went 1-1.

Despite losing a rematch to the Memphis 2008 team in our game, Kansas calculates as 1st due to  destroying the other Big 12 teams in our league play for an average margin of +19 for a KenPom rating slightly higher than our All-Time Tournament Champ UCLA 1972. 

RnkTeam (Year) Player you might recognizePre-SRSWLWin%KenPomSoSScAllMar
1Kansas (2008) Mario Chalmers27510.833220755619
2UCLA (1972) Bill Walton34601.000161726210
3North Carolina (2005) Sean May29420.667153736311
4North Carolina (1982) Michael Jordan21410.80014668644
5Virginia (2019) Kyle Guy26410.80014373657
6Duke (2001) Shane Battier3300 13    
7Gonzaga (2017) Nigel Williams-Goss28320.60011169599
8Connecticut (2004) Ben Gordon23420.667110746410
9Indiana (1976) Scott May27310.750110716012
10Houston (1968) Elvin Hayes25310.75011273649
11Duke (2010) Jon Scheyer26520.71411174677
12Villanova (2018) Mikal Bridges27620.75010276706
13Purdue (2018) Carsen Edwards24510.83310472693
14UCLA (1967) Lew Alcindor3000 10    
15Kentucky (1996) Antoine Walker33010.0009-16467-3
16Auburn (2019) Chuma Okeke21810.8898-271656
17Louisville (2013) Russ Smith25210.6678374668
18Cincinnati (1960) Oscar Robertson27110.5007117074-4
19Kansas (1997) Paul Pierce27101.0007-16846816
20Michigan St. (2009) Draymond Green18620.7507372701
21Duke (1992) Christian Laettner25110.5006272657
22Oregon (2017) Dillon Brooks21320.6006469681
23North Carolina (1998) Vince Carter27101.0006-872666
24NC State (1974) David Thompson26210.667657273-1
25Michigan (1989) Glen Rice28010.000626970-1
26Illinois (2005) Deron Williams25320.6006272702
27Memphis (2008) Derrick Rose24420.6676169663
28Houston (1983) Hakeem Olajuwon23101.0005-7796415
29Illinois (1989) Nick Anderson2500 5    
30Baylor (2021) Jared Butler2500 5    
31Michigan St. (1979) Magic Johnson23210.6675-170638
32Kentucky (2012) Anthony Davis25420.6675-472667
RnkTeam (Year) Player you might recognizePre-SRSWLWin%KenPomSoSScAllMar
33Wake Forest (1996) Tim Duncan19210.6674766651
34Wisconsin (2015) Frank Kaminsky25220.5004265632
35Oklahoma (1985) Wayman Tisdale19310.7504375742
36Connecticut (1999) Richard Hamilton25010.000366064-4
37Syracuse (2003) Carmelo Anthony20210.6673476742
38Ohio St. (1960) Jerry Lucas26010.0003-27879-1
39DePaul (1980) Mark Aguirre15101.000312826418
40Loyola Marymount (1990) Bo Kimble17101.0003-213811622
41Michigan (2013) Trey Burke22230.4002271701
42Arkansas (1994) Corliss Williamson24010.000217879-1
43Indiana (1981) Isaiah Thomas2200 2    
44Iowa (2021) Luka Garza2200 2    
45North Carolina (1982) Michael Jordan21101.0002-272702
46Seton Hall (1989) John Morton21110.5002378780
47Cincinnati (2002) Jason Maxiell25220.5002-173721
48Texas Tech (2019) Jarrett Culver23320.600226667-2
49Loyola-Chicago (1963) Jerry Harkness25010.0002-16268-6
50Arizona (2015) Stanley Johnson25310.7501-575715
51Georgetown (1984) Patrick Ewing19210.6671167652
52USC (2021) Evan Mobley2100 1    
53Georgetown (2007) Roy Hibbert20120.3331-177751
54Pittsburgh (2009) DeJuan Blair22130.250136062-2
55UTEP/Texas Western (1966) Bobby Joe Hill14210.667086466-2
56Syracuse (1987) Rony Seikaly18210.6670-172694
57Missouri (1982) Steve Stipanovich19201.0000170664
58Purdue (1969) Rick Mount22010.0000-18687-1
59Jacksonville (1970) Artis Gilmore2000 0    
60Duke (1986) Johnny Dawkins23010.0000-5106108-2
61Marquette (2003) Dwyane Wade17220.500017374-1
62Marquette (1971) Jim Chones17101.0000-467589
63UNLV (1991) Larry Johnson32120.333-1-47278-5
64Kansas (1957) Wilt Chamberlain21110.500-136874-7
RnkTeam (Year) Player you might recognizePre-SRSWLWin%KenPomSoSScAllMar
65Arizona (1997) Mike Bibby22210.667-106971-2
66Maryland (1984) Len Bias15101.000-10746410
67Michigan (1965) Cazzie Russell1900 -1    
68Colorado (2021) McKinley Wright1900 -1    
69South Carolina (2017) Sindarius Thornwell18120.333-1-165660
70Marquette (1977) Butch Lee17110.500-2-466625
71St. John's (1985) Chris Mullin19010.000-217576-1
72LSU (1992) Shaquille O'Neal21010.000-2-58588-3
73San Diego St. (2011) Kawhi Leonard18220.500-216972-3
74Holy Cross (1950) Bob Cousy15101.000-231081062
75Kansas St. (2008) Michael Beasley16110.500-227576-1
76Creighton (2020) Ty-Shon Alexander18110.500-2-277770
77Georgia Tech (1990) Dennis Scott1800 -2    
78Kentucky (1948) Alex Groza15101.000-2188853
79San Francisco (1956) Bill Russell19010.000-256774-7
80Oklahoma St. (2004) John Lucas21130.250-3-16971-2
81Iowa (2002) Reggie Evans15120.333-337175-4
82Davidson (2008) Stephen Curry14130.250-326467-3
83Ohio St. (2007) Greg Oden22240.333-326972-3
84Indiana (2002) Jared Jeffries20130.250-326773-6
85Florida (2006) Joakim Noah21330.500-3-472711
86St. Joe's (2004) Jameer Nelson21120.333-406876-7
87Oklahoma (2016) Buddy Hield20130.250-436067-7
88St. Bonaventure (1970) Bob Lanier20010.000-4-56474-10
89Georgia Tech (2004) Jarrett Jack21240.333-466169-8
90DePaul (1945) George Mikan15010.000-485155-4
91Wichita St. (2013) Fred VanVleet15120.333-436471-7
92Texas (2003) T.J. Ford19120.333-416976-8
93West Virginia (2010) Kevin Jones20130.250-417076-6
94Virginia (1981) Ralph Sampson19010.000-4-26172-11
95Tennessee (1977) Bernard King15110.500-537683-7
96California (1959) Jack Grout16010.000-5-16971-2
RnkTeam (Year) Player you might recognizePre-SRSWLWin%KenPomSoSScAllMar
97North Carolina (1957) Lennie Rosenbluth1500 -5    
98Seattle (1958) Elgin Baylor15010.000-516264-2
99Utah (1998) Andre Miller18010.000-5-36979-10
100LSU (2006) Glen Davis18120.333-506675-9
101Alabama (1977) Reggie King15010.000-6-27071-1
102George Mason (2006) Jai Lewis13030.000-615967-8
103Maryland (2002) Juan Dixon24130.250-626776-9
104Notre Dame (1981) Orlando Woolridge1400 -6    
105UCLA (2006) Jordan Farmar18230.400-616672-6
106Kansas (1988) Danny Manning16010.000-7-35867-9
107Indiana St. (1979) Larry Bird15010.000-7-26976-7
108South Carolina (1973) Mike Dunleavy12010.000-776672-6
109Notre Dame (1970) Austin Carr13110.500-726777-10
110La Salle (1954) Tom Gola15010.000-7-26776-9
111Oklahoma St. (1946) Bob Kurland15010.000-7-98082-2
112Wyoming (1943) Ken Sailors15010.000-726073-13
113Auburn (1984) Charles Barkley13110.500-7-37277-6
114West Virginia (1959) Jerry West14010.000-7-76869-1
115Kentucky (1970) Dan Issel18010.000-8-3116138-22
116Creighton (2014) Doug McDermott19030.000-806680-14
117Navy (1986) David Robinson14010.000-856177-16
118Wake Forest (2005) Chris Paul21030.000-856485-21
119Villanova (1985) Ed Pinckney13010.000-8-16572-7
120Georgia (1982) Dominique Wilkins11110.500-907078-8
121VCU (2011) Bradford Burgess9030.000-926071-11
122Arizona St. (1980) Byron Scott13010.000-936479-15
123Louisville (1980) Darrell Griffith16010.000-945282-30
124Loyola-Chicago (2018) Cameron Krutwig11030.000-1035975-16
125Butler (2010) Gordon Hayward15030.000-1155576-22
126LSU (1970) Pete Maravich6010.000-1226667-1
127Princeton (1965) Bill Bradley11010.000-12-26279-17
128Niagara (1970) Calvin Murphy4010.000-1676884-16
RnkTeam (Year) Player you might recognizePre-SRSWLWin%KenPomSoSScAllMar

Longer Explanation:

The "Pre-SRS" is the Simple Rating System number for the team for their actual season played, so a calculation of how many points better than the average team they appeared to be in their season. Since the average team in our All-Time Great Value Add Basketball Game is 20 points above their average team, we subtract 20 from that number to estimate a beginning KenPom rating for that team.

We then track the team in our game the same way KenPom does with one exception, we award or subtract an extra 5 points for which team wins and loses a game. So a team playing against 1972 UCLA gets credit for the highest Strength of Schedule (SoS) of 14 (SRS 34 - 20 = 14), and if they lost to them by 10 then they would get a "+4" for that game (Margin -10 but +14 SoS). However, because we also subtract 5 for losing they would actually get a -1 for the game. 

We do this because in KenPom a team only gets a two point higher rating for winning by 1 point than by losing by 1 point - the same difference between scoring to win by 3 instead of by 1. I love KenPom's system and base a lot of my individual ratings on his team ratings, BUT for purposes of play a game I want everything to be riding on game-winning shots, so in my game missing a game-winning shot to lose by one point is a -6 but making the game-winning shot to win by 1 point is a +6.

Because a team starts with an estimated Ken-Pom 20 points lower than their Pre-season SRS, a team that has not played yet like Duke is in the ratings with a "13" and, also like KenPom, if a team has played fewer than 5 games then I give them their Pre-SRS for the balance of the five games and then average.

Team and Player: For each team we list the year and picked one of their better known players to list.

Record: Note that because we started a season of the 21st century teams first, many 20th century teams have only played a game or two, with a few at the bottom yet to play. We are playing a tournament of the new teams, and once that is done we will try to fill in and get every team up to a few games.

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