Value Add Basketball Dice Game Ave. Score 75-63 While Real Final Four Average 74-64 this Century

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Stephen Curry averaged 20.5 points in his first two dice games, but in the 54th Great Teams of the Century he set a new high in the dice game with 38 points - enough to upset the 2006 Florida Gators champs despite no other Davidson player breaking double figures. Buddy Hield of Oklahoma had the high until then with 37 vs. Oklahoma State.

The following are the updated standings and leader boards for all 48 Great Teams of the Century after 54 total games played. The average score in those 54 games is 75-63, while in real life it has been 74-64 in the last 54 Final Four (and Championship) games. This is a good apples-to-apples because Final Fours and the dice game features elite teams except for the occasional surprise team.

The game also appears to be balanced based on how hard it has proven for any one great team to win three straight games. of the 48 great teams, only 4 to 8 will start the season 3-0. So far Kansas has defeated their first three Big 12 opponents, Purdue their first three Big Ten opponents, and both Kentucky and Auburn started 3-0 in the SEC. Four more teams started 2-0 but have yet to play their third game - Villanova (Big East), Gonzaga (Pac-12). Syracuse (ACC) and Texas Tech (Big 12). If a lot of the great teams started 3-0 it might indicated the player cards are unbalanced with the great teams being "too good."

Click on each conference for the update on leaders and records, or here for a google sheet of all box scores and standings, or finally here for the official rules and links to player cards if you want to play yourself.

ACC

Big 12

Big East

Big Ten

Pac-12

SEC

After completing 54 games in my Great Teams of the Century play of Value Add Basketball, I compared those scores to the 54 Final Four and Championship games that have been played during the era covered by the game (2002 season to just concluded 2019 season). The overall scoring was amazingly identical - with the average points scored in the dice game 69.08 within a tenth of a point of the 69.15 scored in the actual Final Four games.

However, the average win in the dice game is 75-63, while in real life it has been 74-64. That could be because there is a slight inaccuracy in the game, however one other possibility is that in real life teams let up once they have the game one, whereas in the dice game we play it out to the end - particularly because point differential is the tie-breaker.

To take an extreme case, Jameer Nelson was having an off day against a tough Kansas team - which is not unusually considering he was coming off two hot games with a 29.5 points per game average. St. Joe's was down by 26 - 75-49 - at which point in a real game Kansas would have pulled their subs, probably let a couple of players get to the hoop for an easy bucket or two, and let a walk on take a shot. Perhaps Kansas would have won by 21 or 22 in the end. However, playing the game out with the dice Mario Chalmers drilled 3-pointers on consecutive trips to stretch the lead to 81-52 and then Robinson stole the ball from Nelson on a play that we know from the dice would have been a 3-pointer made, and he fed it ahead to Rush for a dunk to give Kansas a 31-point win - 83-52.

You can see how the dice would have slightly larger average margins, but I will keep also watching for any future tweaks if the strong teams do have a slightly bigger edge right now than they should. The following would be the playoff bracket if the season ended today, but teams will play seven games.

Here are the scores for the last 54 Final Four Games (including Championships) as well as our 54 games, organized from closest game to biggest blowout. For these purposes, I take the score at the end of regulation, so Virginia's win over Texas Tech this year counts the 68-68 at the end of regulation, and Kansas comeback over Memphis is 2008 is 63-63, while Marquette's dice win over Creighton was 83-83. I actually thought that game was unrealistic because Marquette scored 17 points in overtime for a 100-90 win - but then I realized Virginia also scored 17 in overtime against Texas Tech.

Year	Winner of Actual Final 4 Games	Loser	Pts	Pts All	Diff		Winner Dice Game	Loser	Pts	Pts All	Diff
2019	Virginia (35-3) = OT win	Texas Tech	68	68	0		Marquette 2003	Creighton 2014	83	83	0
2008	Kansas (37-3) = OT win	Memphis	63	63	0		Iowa 2002	Michigan St. 2009	71	70	1
2019	Virginia (35-3)	Auburn	63	62	1		Texas Tech 2019	Oklahoma St. 2004	73	72	1
2017	North Carolina (33-7)	Oregon	77	76	1		Florida 2006	South Carolina 2017	67	66	1
2014	Kentucky	Wisconsin	74	73	1		Syracuse 2003	Duke 2010	86	84	2
2011	Connecticut (32-9)	Kentucky	56	55	1		Kentucky 2012	George Mason 2006	66	64	2
2004	Connecticut (33-6)	Duke	79	78	1		Cincinnati 2002	Georgetown 2007	79	77	2
2012	Kansas	Ohio State	64	62	2		Michigan St. 2009	Indiana 2002	78	76	2
2010	Duke (35-5)	Butler	61	59	2		Memphis 2008	Oregon 2017	72	70	2
2010	Butler	Michigan State	52	50	2		Illinois 2005	Wisconsin 2015	71	69	2
2004	Georgia Tech	Oklahoma St.	67	65	2		Villanova 2018	Louisville 2013	77	73	4
2016	Villanova (35-5)	North Carolina	77	74	3		Auburn 2019	Davidson 2011	69	64	5
2003	Syracuse (30-5)	Kansas	81	78	3		Purdue 2018	Indiana 2002	74	68	6
2017	Gonzaga	South Carolina	77	73	4		Pittsburgh 2009	North Carolina 2005	70	64	6
2013	Louisville (35-5)	Wichita State	72	68	4		St. Joe's 2004	K-State 2008	80	73	7
2015	Duke (35-4)	Wisconsin	68	63	5		Illinois 2005	Ohio St. 2007	83	76	7
2013	Michigan	Syracuse	61	56	5		Purdue 2018	Michigan 2013	75	67	8
2005	North Carolina (33-4)	Illinois	75	70	5		Oregon 2017	San Diego St. 2011	78	70	8
2017	North Carolina (33-7)	Gonzaga	71	65	6		Purdue 2018	Illinois 2005	77	69	8
2014	Connecticut (32-8)	Kentucky	60	54	6		South Carolina 2017	George Mason 2006	71	62	9
2013	Louisville (35-5)*	Michigan	82	76	6		Maryland 2002	Pittsburgh 2009	64	55	9
2015	Wisconsin	Kentucky	71	64	7		Texas 2003	West Virginia 2010	73	64	9
2008	Memphis	UCLA	75	68	7		Kentucky 2012	Davidson 2011	74	64	10
2007	Ohio State	Georgetown	67	60	7		UCLA 2006	Loyola-Chicago 2018	70	60	10
2012	Kentucky (38-2)	Kansas	67	59	8		Auburn 2019	VCU 2011	61	51	10
2012	Kentucky (38-2)	Louisville	69	61	8		St. Joe's 2004	West Virginia 2010	80	70	10
2011	Butler	VCU	70	62	8		San Diego St.	Wichita St. 2013	76	66	10
2007	Florida (35-5)	Ohio State	84	75	9		Wichita St. 2013	Arizona 2015	72	61	11
2004	Connecticut (33-6)	Georgia Tech	82	73	9		Marquette 2003	Cincinnati 2002	73	62	11
2002	Maryland (32-4)	Kansas	97	88	9		Duke 2010	Georgia Tech 2004	67	56	11
2002	Indiana	Oklahoma	73	64	9		Wisconsin 2015	Iowa 2002	66	54	12
2019	Texas Tech	Michigan State	61	51	10		Georgetown 2007	Marquette 2003	74	62	12
2014	Connecticut (32-8)	Florida	63	53	10		Michigan 2013	Ohio St. 2007	76	64	12
2007	Florida (35-5)	UCLA	76	66	10		Oklahoma 2016	Oklahoma St. 2004	75	63	12
2003	Syracuse (30-5)	Texas	95	84	11		Louisville 2013	Connecticut 2004	74	61	13
2018	Michigan	Loyola	69	57	12		Texas Tech 2019	K-State 2008	67	54	13
2011	Connecticut (32-9)	Butler	53	41	12		Auburn 2019	LSU 2006	69	56	13
2002	Maryland (32-4)	Indiana	64	52	12		Davidson 2011	Florida 2006	70	54	16
2009	North Carolina (34-4)	Villanova	83	69	14		Gonzaga 2017	Memphis 2008	65	47	18
2006	UCLA	LSU	59	45	14		Florida 2006	VCU 2011	76	58	18
2006	Florida (33-6)	George Mason	73	58	15		Syracuse 2003	Virginia 2019	92	72	20
2005	Illinois	Louisville	72	57	15		North Carolina 2005	Wake Forest 2005	85	65	20
2018	Villanova (36-4)	Kansas	95	79	16		Arizona 2015	Loyola-Chicago 2018	76	55	21
2006	Florida (33-6)	UCLA	73	57	16		Kansas 2008	Texas 2003	75	54	21
2005	North Carolina (33-4)	Michigan State	87	71	16		Kansas 2008	Oklahoma 2016	66	44	22
2018	Villanova (36-4)	Michigan	79	62	17		Connecticut 2004	Butler 2010	71	47	24
2016	North Carolina	Syracuse	83	66	17		North Carolina 2005	Georgia Tech 2004	77	53	24
2009	North Carolina (34-4)	Michigan State	89	72	17		Connecticut 2004	Creighton 2014	86	61	25
2009	Michigan State	Connecticut	89	72	17		Kentucky 2012	LSU 2006	83	58	25
2008	Kansas (37-3)	North Carolina	84	66	18		Villanova 2018	Butler 2010	89	60	29
2015	Duke (35-4)	Michigan State	81	61	20		Kansas 2008	St. Joe's 2004	83	52	31
2010	Duke (35-5)	West Virginia	78	57	21		Duke 2010	Wake Forest 2005	89	57	32
2003	Kansas	Marquette	94	61	33		Virginia 2019	Maryland 2002	97	64	33
2016	Villanova (35-5)	Oklahoma	95	51	44		Gonzaga 2017	UCLA 2006	81	48	33
			74.0	64.3	9.8				75.4	62.8	12.6