Monday, June 10, 2019

Value Add Basketball Dice Game Ave. Score 75-63 While Real Final Four Average 74-64 this Century

Stephen Curry averaged 20.5 points in his first two dice games, but in the 54th Great Teams of the Century he set a new high in the dice game with 38 points - enough to upset the 2006 Florida Gators champs despite no other Davidson player breaking double figures. Buddy Hield of Oklahoma had the high until then with 37 vs. Oklahoma State.

The following are the updated standings and leader boards for all 48 Great Teams of the Century after 54 total games played. The average score in those 54 games is 75-63, while in real life it has been 74-64 in the last 54 Final Four (and Championship) games. This is a good apples-to-apples because Final Fours and the dice game features elite teams except for the occasional surprise team.

The game also appears to be balanced based on how hard it has proven for any one great team to win three straight games. of the 48 great teams, only 4 to 8 will start the season 3-0. So far Kansas has defeated their first three Big 12 opponents, Purdue their first three Big Ten opponents, and both Kentucky and Auburn started 3-0 in the SEC. Four more teams started 2-0 but have yet to play their third game - Villanova (Big East), Gonzaga (Pac-12). Syracuse (ACC) and Texas Tech (Big 12). If a lot of the great teams started 3-0 it might indicated the player cards are unbalanced with the great teams being "too good."

Click on each conference for the update on leaders and records, or here for a google sheet of all box scores and standings, or finally here for the official rules and links to player cards if you want to play yourself.

ACC

Big 12

Big East

Big Ten

Pac-12

SEC

After completing 54 games in my Great Teams of the Century play of Value Add Basketball, I compared those scores to the 54 Final Four and Championship games that have been played during the era covered by the game (2002 season to just concluded 2019 season). The overall scoring was amazingly identical - with the average points scored in the dice game 69.08 within a tenth of a point of the 69.15 scored in the actual Final Four games.

However, the average win in the dice game is 75-63, while in real life it has been 74-64. That could be because there is a slight inaccuracy in the game, however one other possibility is that in real life teams let up once they have the game one, whereas in the dice game we play it out to the end - particularly because point differential is the tie-breaker.

To take an extreme case, Jameer Nelson was having an off day against a tough Kansas team - which is not unusually considering he was coming off two hot games with a 29.5 points per game average. St. Joe's was down by 26 - 75-49 - at which point in a real game Kansas would have pulled their subs, probably let a couple of players get to the hoop for an easy bucket or two, and let a walk on take a shot. Perhaps Kansas would have won by 21 or 22 in the end. However, playing the game out with the dice Mario Chalmers drilled 3-pointers on consecutive trips to stretch the lead to 81-52 and then Robinson stole the ball from Nelson on a play that we know from the dice would have been a 3-pointer made, and he fed it ahead to Rush for a dunk to give Kansas a 31-point win - 83-52.

You can see how the dice would have slightly larger average margins, but I will keep also watching for any future tweaks if the strong teams do have a slightly bigger edge right now than they should. The following would be the playoff bracket if the season ended today, but teams will play seven games.



Here are the scores for the last 54 Final Four Games (including Championships) as well as our 54 games, organized from closest game to biggest blowout. For these purposes, I take the score at the end of regulation, so Virginia's win over Texas Tech this year counts the 68-68 at the end of regulation, and Kansas comeback over Memphis is 2008 is 63-63, while Marquette's dice win over Creighton was 83-83. I actually thought that game was unrealistic because Marquette scored 17 points in overtime for a 100-90 win - but then I realized Virginia also scored 17 in overtime against Texas Tech.

YearWinner of Actual Final 4 GamesLoserPtsPts AllDiffWinner Dice GameLoserPtsPts AllDiff
2019Virginia (35-3) = OT winTexas Tech68680Marquette 2003Creighton 201483830
2008Kansas (37-3) = OT winMemphis63630Iowa 2002Michigan St. 200971701
2019Virginia (35-3)Auburn63621Texas Tech 2019Oklahoma St. 200473721
2017North Carolina (33-7)Oregon77761Florida 2006South Carolina 201767661
2014KentuckyWisconsin74731Syracuse 2003Duke 201086842
2011Connecticut (32-9)Kentucky56551Kentucky 2012George Mason 200666642
2004Connecticut (33-6)Duke79781Cincinnati 2002Georgetown 200779772
2012KansasOhio State64622Michigan St. 2009Indiana 200278762
2010Duke (35-5)Butler61592Memphis 2008Oregon 201772702
2010ButlerMichigan State52502Illinois 2005Wisconsin 201571692
2004Georgia TechOklahoma St.67652Villanova 2018Louisville 201377734
2016Villanova (35-5)North Carolina77743Auburn 2019Davidson 201169645
2003Syracuse (30-5)Kansas81783Purdue 2018Indiana 200274686
2017GonzagaSouth Carolina77734Pittsburgh 2009North Carolina 200570646
2013Louisville (35-5)Wichita State72684St. Joe's 2004K-State 200880737
2015Duke (35-4)Wisconsin68635Illinois 2005Ohio St. 200783767
2013MichiganSyracuse61565Purdue 2018Michigan 201375678
2005North Carolina (33-4)Illinois75705Oregon 2017San Diego St. 201178708
2017North Carolina (33-7)Gonzaga71656Purdue 2018Illinois 200577698
2014Connecticut (32-8)Kentucky60546South Carolina 2017George Mason 200671629
2013Louisville (35-5)*Michigan82766Maryland 2002Pittsburgh 200964559
2015WisconsinKentucky71647Texas 2003West Virginia 201073649
2008MemphisUCLA75687Kentucky 2012Davidson 2011746410
2007Ohio StateGeorgetown67607UCLA 2006Loyola-Chicago 2018706010
2012Kentucky (38-2)Kansas67598Auburn 2019VCU 2011615110
2012Kentucky (38-2)Louisville69618St. Joe's 2004West Virginia 2010807010
2011ButlerVCU70628San Diego St.Wichita St. 2013766610
2007Florida (35-5)Ohio State84759Wichita St. 2013Arizona 2015726111
2004Connecticut (33-6)Georgia Tech82739Marquette 2003Cincinnati 2002736211
2002Maryland (32-4)Kansas97889Duke 2010Georgia Tech 2004675611
2002IndianaOklahoma73649Wisconsin 2015Iowa 2002665412
2019Texas TechMichigan State615110Georgetown 2007Marquette 2003746212
2014Connecticut (32-8)Florida635310Michigan 2013Ohio St. 2007766412
2007Florida (35-5)UCLA766610Oklahoma 2016Oklahoma St. 2004756312
2003Syracuse (30-5)Texas958411Louisville 2013Connecticut 2004746113
2018MichiganLoyola695712Texas Tech 2019K-State 2008675413
2011Connecticut (32-9)Butler534112Auburn 2019LSU 2006695613
2002Maryland (32-4)Indiana645212Davidson 2011Florida 2006705416
2009North Carolina (34-4)Villanova836914Gonzaga 2017Memphis 2008654718
2006UCLALSU594514Florida 2006VCU 2011765818
2006Florida (33-6)George Mason735815Syracuse 2003Virginia 2019927220
2005IllinoisLouisville725715North Carolina 2005Wake Forest 2005856520
2018Villanova (36-4)Kansas957916Arizona 2015Loyola-Chicago 2018765521
2006Florida (33-6)UCLA735716Kansas 2008Texas 2003755421
2005North Carolina (33-4)Michigan State877116Kansas 2008Oklahoma 2016664422
2018Villanova (36-4)Michigan796217Connecticut 2004Butler 2010714724
2016North CarolinaSyracuse836617North Carolina 2005Georgia Tech 2004775324
2009North Carolina (34-4)Michigan State897217Connecticut 2004Creighton 2014866125
2009Michigan StateConnecticut897217Kentucky 2012LSU 2006835825
2008Kansas (37-3)North Carolina846618Villanova 2018Butler 2010896029
2015Duke (35-4)Michigan State816120Kansas 2008St. Joe's 2004835231
2010Duke (35-5)West Virginia785721Duke 2010Wake Forest 2005895732
2003KansasMarquette946133Virginia 2019Maryland 2002976433
2016Villanova (35-5)Oklahoma955144Gonzaga 2017UCLA 2006814833
74.064.39.875.462.812.6

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