Harry Giles Value Add was 1.53, meaning he was worth only one to two points per game to Duke over a replacement player. Of the 4,142 players whose best Value Add season was between 1 and 1.99, he will be only the 20th to make the NBA (0.5%). The vast majority of players worth more than 8.00 points a game to their team make the NBA, while about half worth 7.00 to 8.00 points per game get to the NBA, and a very low percentage of players with a Value Add below 7.00 ever make it.
| Best Value Add | Players | Made NBA | % made it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 0.99 | 10,640 | 10 | 0.1% |
| 1 to 1.99 | 4142 | 20 | 0.5% |
| 2 to 2.99 | 2010 | 31 | 1.5% |
| 3 to 3.99 | 1353 | 48 | 3.5% |
| 4 to 4.99 | 982 | 100 | 10.2% |
| 5 to 5.99 | 664 | 129 | 19.4% |
| 6 to 6.99 | 428 | 124 | 29.0% |
| 7 to 7.99 | 268 | 124 | 46.3% |
| 8 to 8.99 | 157 | 116 | 73.9% |
| 9 or higher | 123 | 107 | 87.0% |
| All Players | 20,767 | 809 | 3.9% |
Giles 27 inch vertical ranks only a 2.3 on a scale of 0 to 10, the result of two ACL injuries. Together with the low Value Add, the stats do not back up his potential selection in the top half of the first round.
However, he is above average in the other four biggest statistical indicators of future NBA success; 1) his wing span is more than 7'3", 2) he steals the ball 1.7 percent of opponents trips down the court (above average and great for a power forward-center), 3) he grabs 21.5% of opponents' missed shots, and he takes 17.9 percent of Duke's shots when on the court (players who do not hog the ball do better in the NBA).
Looking at the table below under freshman, of the 11492 freshman in the database from the 2001-02 season to present, a total of 622 (5.4%) eventually make the NBA, but only 130 (1.1%) are "one-and-dones" who make the NBA after that season. A total of 1.1% of sophomores and juniors go to the NBA after that season, and 3.1% of the season. When you throw all the seasons together in the final column to the right including some where we are not sure of the class, 3.9% of the players on the court in a given season will eventually end up in the NBA.
| % who will make NBA | Freshmen | Sophomores | Juniors | Seniors | Total Seasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How many will make NBA | 622/130 of 11,492 | 570/132 of 11,498 | 530/159 of 13,991 | 388 of 12,466 | 2,124 of 54,912 |
| Make NBA next season (Ave.) | 5.43 (1.1%) | 6.59 (1.1%) | 6.38 (1.1%) | 6.45 (3.1%) | 6.29 (1.5%) |
| Will Make NBA (Ave.) | 3.40 (5.4%) | 4.84 (5.0%) | 5.49 (3.8%) | 6.45 (3.1%) | 4.87 (3.9%) |
| Stay 1 school 4 years (Ave.) | 0.98 | 1.66 | 2.09 | 2.48 | 1.80 |
| Will not make NBA (Ave.) | 0.76 | 1.20 | 1.42 | 1.78 | 1.28 |
Looking at the rest of the columns, the one-and-done freshmen have an average Value Add of 5.43 their one season in college, while freshman who eventually end up in the NBA have a 3.40 Value Add. Compare that from a 0.98 Value Add average for freshman who go on to play all four years at the same school, and 0.76 for all freshmen who will never make the NBA.
For purposes of this study, we presumed players projected to go in the first 40 picks of the next two drafts will get on an NBA court.
In the Notes search at www.valueaddbasketball.com type "nba" to limit the 54,912 total player seasons from 2001-02 to present down to the 2,124 played by a player who would one day see an NBA floor.
Players' careers end when they drop out of a program because they are not good enough or face other issues, or they run out of eligibility after their senior season, or they leave to attempt to make the NBA.
Factors in Rankings of Future NBA Potential of Draftees (see table below)
The following factors are reflected in the table below - and a sum of each ranking adds up to the "Predict" column below used to rank all prospects.
1. Value Add Adjusted by Class Year
While the odds are against a player making the NBA until they put up a Value Add season of about 7.60 or higher, a freshman who is worth over six runs has a strong chance. To break it down by class:
| Class Chance at NBA | 1 Fr | 2 So | 3 Jr | 4 Sr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| less than 3.00 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 3 to 4.99 | 21% | 9% | 11% | 4% |
| 5 to 7.99 | 57% | 34% | 32% | 18% |
| 8 or higher | 63% | 66% | 59% | 61% |
2. KenPom NBA Indicators (DReb, Stl% and Shot%)
Many great college players lack the combination of skills needed to jump to the NBA level. The top ranking based on the three most important stats at www.kenpom.com belongs to Caleb Swanigan due to him grabbing an incredible 32.7% of all rebounds on opponents' missed shots (13% is average). Swanigan's 0.8 percent of steals for opponents' trips is half the national average (1.6%) and he took 25.6% of Purdue's shots (players who stay below the average 20% do better in the NBA), but the rebounding is so incredible it points to NBA success.
Donovan Mitchell of Louisville (3.7% steals) nudged out a pair of players who led South Carolina to a stunning Final Four with steals on 3.6% of opponents' trips down the court each (Thornwell and PJ Dozier).
My selection of Jimmy Butler as the future star years ago was based on how few shots he took to put up good numbers, and three prospects stand out this year for taking less than one-sixth of their team's shots (Kentucky's Edrice Adebayo, UCLA's ke Anigbogu and Oregon's Jordan Bell). Players who can shoot themselves out of slumps in college find they do not have that luxury in the NBA, where they must take the court hot.
Note for nerds only. These three factors are weighted (for fellow math nerds, the steals are multiplied by 6 based on giving them the most weight with a 0.9% standard deviation from the 1.6 average, the defensive rebounds are not adjusted based on already having a standard deviation of 5.2, and the lower shots are the lesser of the three factors and multiplied by 0.4 due to a 6.2 standard deviation).
3. Vertical Jump from Combine
I like to use a number of the athletic measurements from the combine, and wish they still included the bench press where Jae Crowder drew attention with 20 reps out of college. I do assume a count of bench presses based purely on position to adjust the vertical into a specific neutral position. I'd love to see if Jason Tatum moved into the top couple based on what I guess is a strong bench press.
However, for simplicity sake I only included the best single stat, the vertical leap, in the table below.
This factor takes the number of inches in the standing vertical jump, and then adds the number I associate with the traditional positions. A pure center is a 5.0, and a power forward a 4.0, so if I have someone who plays both then I make them a 4.3 position if they are mainly power forward, or a 4.7 if primarily a center. By adding the vertical leap and the position, and then subtracting 29, we get roughly a 0 to 10 scale. However, I do add 4 additional points to pure point guards to get the final "vertical" number below.
4. Wingspan Adjusted by Position
Likewise, twice the position factor from the previous paragraph is subtracted from the total number of inches in a player's wing span. Once again the same factor is then subtracted from all players to yield a result from roughly 0 to 10.
When I used a more complex system for prep for NBA teams I factored size of hands,etc., but we are keeping it simple here to lay out the basic process using the most important factors.
5. Mock Drafts
Given that this is a basic variation of the system, I do start with the average of mock drafts as a baseline. Just as I tell anyone whenever I am called "Mr. Moneyball" during anything from a Fox News story to a radio interview, I stress that observation is always key. Analytics just provide one other variable beyond all the shooting matrix listed at www.nba.com and the many things observed by scouts.
There I start with 60 points for the first pick in the average mock draft, 59 for second etc. The rest of these calculations move people up or down from those subjective rankings - which NBA team officials tell me seem to be fairly accurate but lag behind the latest info.
With all that outlined, here are the calculations of the predictors for how well each player will likely perform at the NBA-level. The goal here is not to pinpoint but frame how different types of information can be balanced into more effective evaluations.
| Rank | Player | Team | Predict | VA/Class | Stat factor | Vertical | Wingspan | Class | PosAdj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lonzo Ball | UCLA | 95.8 | 9.33 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 8.7 | Fr | 1.0 |
| 2 | Markelle Fultz (6 gm inj) | Washington | 90.3 | 7.05 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 6.6 | Fr | 1.0 |
| 3 | Josh Jackson | Kansas | 89.2 | 7.78 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 5.0 | Fr | 2.3 |
| 4 | Jonathan Isaac | Florida St. | 88.7 | 6.39 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 8.3 | Fr | 3.3 |
| 5 | Lauri Markkanen | Arizona | 87.7 | 8.89 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | Fr | 4.0 |
| 6 | Frank Ntilikina | France | 87.6 | 7.00 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 7.6 | Int | 1.0 |
| 7 | Jayson Tatum | Duke | 85.7 | 5.88 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 6.8 | Fr | 3.0 |
| 8 | De'Aaron Fox | Kentucky | 84.7 | 7.09 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.5 | Fr | 1.0 |
| 9 | Jarrett Allen | Texas | 82.8 | 6.29 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 7.3 | Fr | 5.0 |
| 10 | Dennis Smith | NC State | 80.5 | 6.62 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 4.4 | Fr | 1.0 |
| 11 | Malik Monk | Kentucky | 79.3 | 7.79 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 3.5 | Fr | 2.0 |
| 12 | John Collins | Wake Forest | 79.0 | 7.18 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 2.7 | So | 4.3 |
| 13 | Zach Collins | Gonzaga | 77.6 | 6.38 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 3.0 | Fr | 5.0 |
| 14 | TJ Leaf | UCLA | 74.9 | 7.62 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | Fr | 4.0 |
| 15 | Justin Patton | Creighton | 74.9 | 6.62 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 5.0 | Fr | 5.0 |
| 16 | Edrice Adebayo | Kentucky | 74.5 | 7.31 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.2 | Fr | 4.3 |
| 17 | Donovan Mitchell | Louisville | 74.3 | 6.65 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | So | 2.0 |
| 18 | Luke Kennard | Duke | 68.9 | 8.01 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | So | 2.0 |
| 19 | Ike Anigbogu | UCLA | 66.8 | 1.22 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 8.3 | Fr | 5.0 |
| 20 | Justin Jackson | UNC | 66.7 | 5.97 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 5.0 | Jr | 3.0 |
| 21 | Harry Giles | Duke | 66.4 | 1.53 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 6.7 | Fr | 4.3 |
| 22 | Jordan Bell | Oregon | 65.7 | 6.54 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.2 | Jr | 4.3 |
| 23 | Caleb Swanigan | Purdue | 65.7 | 7.36 | 10.6 | 4.0 | 6.4 | So | 4.3 |
| 24 | Terrance Ferguson | USA | 64.3 | 6.00 | 8.0 | 1.5 | 4.8 | Int | 2.0 |
| 25 | PJ Dozier | South Carolina | 63.6 | 2.84 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | So | 1.3 |
| 26 | Kyle Kuzma | Utah | 63.5 | 4.27 | 7.7 | 2.0 | 4.3 | Jr | 4.0 |
| 27 | Wesley Iwundu | Kansas St. | 63.0 | 4.38 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 8.4 | Sr | 2.3 |
| 28 | Rodions Kurucs | Latvia | 60.8 | 5.00 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 6.8 | Int | 3.0 |
| 29 | DJ Wilson | Michigan | 58.2 | 4.29 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 7.0 | So | 4.0 |
| 30 | Tyler Lydon | Syracuse | 56.1 | 5.00 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 4.0 | So | 4.0 |
| 31 | Dwayne Bacon | Florida St. | 55.4 | 2.97 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 5.4 | So | 2.3 |
| 32 | Ivan Rabb | California | 54.7 | 4.25 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 4.9 | So | 4.3 |
| 33 | Sindarius Thornwell | South Carolina | 54.2 | 9.37 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 6.0 | Sr | 2.0 |
| 34 | Semi Ojeleye | SMU | 52.7 | 7.48 | 5.3 | 9.3 | 3.2 | Jr | 3.3 |
| 35 | Johnathan Motley | Baylor | 51.9 | 6.63 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 8.0 | Jr | 4.0 |
| 36 | Edmond Sumner (17g inj) | Xavier | 51.6 | 4.49 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 6.4 | So | 1.3 |
| 37 | Frank Jackson | Duke | 51.0 | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6.8 | 4.9 | Fr | 1.3 |
| 38 | Josh Hart | Villanova | 48.7 | 8.10 | 6.7 | 0.5 | 4.3 | Sr | 2.0 |
| 39 | Jaron Blossomgame | Clemson | 48.0 | 4.20 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 4.0 | Sr | 3.0 |
| 40 | Tony Bradley | UNC | 47.7 | 3.88 | 6.4 | 0.5 | 7.0 | Fr | 5.0 |
| 41 | Jawun Evans | Oklahoma St. | 47.1 | 6.64 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 | So | 1.0 |
| 42 | Anzejs Pasecniks | Latvia | 47.1 | 5.00 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 8.1 | Int | 5.0 |
| 43 | OG Anunoby (18g inj) | Indiana | 46.8 | 2.45 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 7.7 | So | 3.3 |
| 44 | Jonathan Jeanne | France | 43.5 | 5.00 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 8.5 | Int | 5.0 |
| 45 | Cameron Oliver | Nevada | 41.8 | 3.71 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 5.3 | So | 4.0 |
| 46 | Derrick White | Colorado | 41.4 | 6.40 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 4.9 | Sr | 1.3 |
| 47 | Mathias Lessort | France | 40.9 | 5.00 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 5.9 | Int | 4.0 |
| 48 | Frank Mason | Kansas | 39.5 | 8.51 | 4.2 | 10.0 | 1.3 | Sr | 1.0 |
| 49 | Damyean Dotson | Houston | 38.9 | 6.10 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 4.4 | Sr | 2.3 |
| 50 | Nigel Williams-Goss | Gonzaga | 36.2 | 8.16 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 5.3 | Jr | 1.0 |
| 51 | Monte Morris | Iowa St. | 33.5 | 7.47 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 2.0 | Sr | 1.0 |
| 52 | Alec Peters | Valparaiso | 32.8 | 4.53 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | Sr | 4.0 |
| 53 | Devin Robinson | Florida | 32.8 | 4.96 | 6.6 | 9.5 | 6.8 | Jr | 3.0 |
| 54 | Tyler Dorsey | Oregon | 31.8 | 4.11 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | So | 2.0 |
| 55 | Sterling Brown | SMU | 31.3 | 4.98 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 5.0 | Sr | 2.3 |
| 56 | Dillon Brooks | Oregon | 31.2 | 3.93 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 0.0 | Jr | 3.0 |
| 57 | Aleksandar Vezenkov | Bulgaria | 29.3 | 4.00 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 7.3 | Int | 3.3 |
| 58 | Jonah Bolden | Australia | 27.9 | 4.00 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 6.9 | Int | 4.0 |
| 59 | Egemen Guven | Turkey | 26.0 | 4.00 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | Int | 5.0 |
| 60 | Justin Jackson | Maryland | 24.9 | 4.60 | 5.9 | 0.5 | 9.3 | Fr | 3.0 |
| 61 | Kennedy Meeks | UNC | 24.7 | 4.53 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | Sr | 5.0 |
| 62 | Rawle Alkins | Arizona | 24.2 | 5.06 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.2 | Fr | 2.3 |
| 63 | Nigel Hayes | Wisconsin | 24.2 | 3.52 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 7.3 | Sr | 4.0 |
| 64 | Eric Mika | BYU | 24.0 | 5.60 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | So | 4.3 |
| 65 | Kobi Simmons | Arizona | 23.7 | 2.37 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.4 | Fr | 1.3 |
| 66 | Davon Reed | Miami FL | 23.3 | 4.52 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 7.4 | Sr | 2.3 |
| 67 | Thomas Welsh | UCLA | 22.5 | 3.43 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | Jr | 4.3 |
| 68 | Derrick Walton | Michigan | 22.3 | 6.99 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | Sr | 1.0 |
| 69 | Chris Boucher | Oregon | 22.2 | 1.76 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 8.0 | Sr | 4.0 |
| 70 | Thomas Bryant | Indiana | 22.1 | 3.27 | 6.1 | 1.5 | 8.0 | So | 5.0 |
| 71 | Isaiah Hicks | UNC | 21.7 | 2.49 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | Sr | 4.0 |
| 72 | Isaiah Briscoe | Kentucky | 21.2 | 2.64 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | So | 1.0 |
| 73 | Kadeem Allen | Arizona | 20.3 | 1.81 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 5.3 | Sr | 2.0 |
| 74 | Andrew Jones | Texas | 18.9 | 5.50 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 2.5 | Fr | 2.0 |
| 75 | Moritz Wagner | Michigan | 17.8 | 3.74 | 5.9 | 0.5 | 4.0 | So | 4.0 |
| 76 | Peter Jok | Iowa | 16.6 | 3.65 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 3.4 | Sr | 2.3 |
| 77 | Chance Comanche | Arizona | 16.3 | 0.58 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 6.0 | So | 5.0 |
| 78 | VJ Beachem | Notre Dame | 15.5 | 1.08 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 5.7 | Sr | 2.3 |
| 79 | Jamel Artis | Pittsburgh | 14.9 | 2.60 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 5.4 | Sr | 2.3 |
| 80 | Melo Trimble | Maryland | 12.9 | 3.87 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 0.0 | Jr | 1.0 |
| 81 | Omer Yurtseven | NC State | 11.6 | 0.52 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 3.0 | Fr | 5.0 |
Im confused about the wing span rating of Ball versus Fultz. Ball's is higher despite them playing the same position and Fultz being shorter but with an almost 6'10 wingspan according to all the measurements I have seen versus 6'7 for Ball.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the question, I will go back and check. You are looking at it right, I'm just on the road and can't pull up the original data right now. The late news is that Giles knee did not check out so even my original no. 21 might be optimistic.
ReplyDelete