Revised Steal Chart in the Year the Steal Returned

The revised stolen base chart at the bottom of this blog should be used for 2023 games - it will increase the success percentage from about 65% to about 82% on average - same as the change in MLB.

If you've missed it, the stolen base has finally returned to Major League Baseball, which is great for simulated game players since deciding whether or not to steal was always a fun part of the game. The truth was it normally did not make sense, either in real baseball or based on the steal chart (below). To be worthwhile, you normally need to be successful 75 percent of the time, and the 2022 season was yet another season of nowhere near that total - 2,986 of 3,797 for 65 percent.

In the Statis-Pro baseball game runners a Steal rating of A (normally best) through E, and once in a while a super AA or AAA base stealer like Ricky Henderson (insane 1,406 of 1,741 for 81 percent in his career). The catchers have a throwing arm of either TA, TB or TC. Based on this it normally almost never makes sense to try to steal on a TA - even a Speed A (which is sometimes the number after the OBR: / dash or after "SP") is safe only 67% of the time against a TA, and there are now Speed AAA (which would be 76%) and only two AA cards and neither has played this season.

Those only two OBR/SP: A/AA - the AA being the steal number, are the often injured Adalberto Mondesi and Billy Hamilton, who is getting a few at bats in the White Sox minor leagues. Both were already successful on more than 80 percent of their stolen base attempts.

Reminder Note: To play our own Statis-Pro Baseball games, click and print the batters cards here, then these pitchers' cards and finally the Statis-Pro rules which will have everything you need to play. Also note that we had one error in earlier notes - the adjustments listed at the bottom of some pitcher cards to the batters they face (changing a HR to Out or vice versa) must be used every time they pitch, not just in road games as previously listed. You may notice this season that our blogs are picked up by https://www.baseball-reference.com/ so when a player is mentioned you can link for their stats by clicking.

So until this season, it only made sense to steal against a TB if you had a SP A runner, or it always makes sense to steal against a TC - even a SP D is safe 76% of the time though most of the 64 numbers the SP: D just will not get a break.

Speed	Catcher TA	Catcher TB	Catcher TC
AAA	44 SB, 14 Out, 76%	48 SB, 10 Out, 83%	53 SB, 4 Out, 93%
AA	38 SB, 15 Out, 72%	42 SB, 10 Out, 81%	47 SB, 4 Out, 92%
A	30 SB, 15 Out, 67%	34 SB, 10 Out, 77%	39 SB, 4 Out, 91%
B	22 SB, 15 Out, 59%	26 SB, 10 Out, 72%	31 SB, 4 Out, 89%
C	11 SB, 15 Out, 42%	15 SB, 10 Out, 60%	20 SB, 4 Out, 83%
D	4 SB, 15 Out, 21%	8 SB, 10 Out, 44%	13 SB, 4 Out, 76%
E	0 SB, 0 Out, No St%	0 SB, 0 Out, No St%	0 SB, 0 Out, No St%

However, this season the stolen base success rate has increased from 65% to 82% - 292 of 356. Luckily this requires only a small change in the stolen base chart. Any ODD NUMBER on an 11-88 result on the that would have been a caught stealing is changed to a hold, and the chances of success on the sheet change from about 65% to 82%. The revised chart appears at the bottom with red font to point out those changes. As the red indicates, it now makes sense to try to steal with a SP A even against a TA, and to try stealing with a SP A, B or C against a TB. 

Speed	Catcher TA	Catcher TB	Catcher TC
AAA	44 SB, 8 Out, 85%	48 SB, 5 Out, 91%	53 SB, 2 Out, 96%
AA	38 SB, 9 Out, 81%	42 SB, 5 Out, 89%	47 SB, 2 Out, 96%
A	30 SB, 9 Out, 77%	34 SB, 5 Out, 87%	39 SB, 2 Out, 95%
B	22 SB, 9 Out, 71%	26 SB, 5 Out, 84%	31 SB, 2 Out, 94%
C	11 SB, 9 Out, 55%	15 SB, 5 Out, 75%	20 SB, 2 Out, 91%
D	4 SB, 9 Out, 31%	8 SB, 5 Out, 62%	13 SB, 2 Out, 87%
E	0 SB, 0 Out, No St%	0 SB, 0 Out, No St%	0 SB, 0 Out, No St%

Here is the stolen base chart, with the 2023 changes in red.

RN          Result trying to steal 2nd base

11-14    SP D or better steals, E holds

15-23    SP C or better steals, others hold

24-32    SP B or better steals, others hold

33-46    SP A or better steals, others hold

47-52    Runner out stealing (2023 - 47 or 51 holds)

53-56    Runner out if TA (2023 - 53 or 55 hold), steal if TB or TC

57-63    Runner out if TA or TB (2023 - 57,61 or 63 hold), steal if  TC

64-65    Hold (some games have + steal or - out)

66-67    Hold (some games have pickoff A for pitcher that is out)

68           Hold (some games have pickoff A or B for pitcher that is out)

71           TA Picks off runner

72           TA or TB picks off runner

73-78    SP AA or AAA steals, others hold

81-88    SP AAA steals, others hold

               

RN          Result trying to steal 3rd base

11-14    SP D or better steals, E holds

15-17    SP C or better steals, others hold

18-28    SP B or better steals, others hold

31-38    SP A or better steals, others hold

41-52    Runner out stealing (2023 - 41,43,45,47,51 holds)

53-55    Runner out if TA (2023 - 53 or 55 hold), steal if TB or TC

56-61    Runner out if TA or TB (2023 - 57,61 or 63 hold), steal if  TC

62-65    Hold (some games have + steal or - out)

66           Hold (some games have pickoff A for pitcher that is out)

67           Hold (some games have pickoff A or B for pitcher that is out)

68           TA Picks off runner

71           TA or TB picks off runner

72-76    SP AA or AAA steals, others hold

77-82    SP AAA steals, others hold

82-88    Hold