Sunday, April 23, 2023

24 Pitchers & Ball Park Factors Key in Padres 2 Wins vs. Mets

The Statis-Pro Padres 4-2 and 8-6 wins in the two best pitchers' parks in our league included several great examples of ball park rule examples in our Statis-Pro results. Here is our grid of all games.

Neither ace - Max Scherzer or Blake Snell were as dominant as usual so both teams used three relievers in the opening game in San Diego where a deep drive in only a home run on an 11 and a deep fly out on a 12-88, the fewest homers of any park in our league. The Mets had the toughest the past few years, but were slightly better at 11-13 as the second toughest park this season.

Because pitchers on both teams benefit from pitching in such strong pitchers' parks, they both get the adjustment on the bottom of their cards that give the opposing batter a home run on their lowest out number - and it happened once in the series.

In the top of the 1st Xander Bogaerts came up with two outs and Manny Machado having singled. The Mets' starter Jose Quintana drew a PB 9 to leave the action on Bogaerts card and the resultant "56" was a homer because of that adjustment and Bogaerts out ranged being 56-88 (thus lowest number of the range in a home run). Another homer by Austin Nola in the 2nd and it was 3-0 Padres.

In the top of the 4th inning the Padres flexed true muscle even in the tough park.

Jake Cronenworth had draw a DEEP drive and then a "14," missing a homer by one from the 11-13 range.

However, after Fernando Tatis Jr. singled in a run to make it 4-0, he stole second base. Then Juan Soto drew a DEEP drive and on the next card an "11" sent it out of the park despite the tiny 11-13 range, and it was 6-0 Padres with a chance for a 5+ run sweep credit.

Having won the first game 4-2, the Padres 6-0 lead was partly due to a strategy move of not starting the No. 4 pitcher in the rotation, Jay Groom, who as a PB 2-5 likely would have been beaten up by the Mets powerful lineup.

The Padres three stoppers out of the pen - PB 2-8s Robert Suarez and Luis Garcia as well as PB 2-9 Josh Hader - were used in the first game.

From the relievers that were left after the 1st game (we allow the relievers to pitch one game in every two game series), we added up that if Seth Lugo (PB 4-7, and 3 Max IP) and Nick Martinez (PB 2-7, 4 Max IP but in relief you can only go one less).could cover the 1st through 6th inning and get it to the good remaining three pitchers to handle the 7th, 8th and 9th.

Lugo did his part with three innings of 1-hit shut out ball.

However, Martinez could not hold the 6-0 lead or last through the 6th inning. After 1 2/3 innings, Alonso drilled a 3-run homer off to cut it to 6-3 and chase him.

However, the Padres did have another PB 4-7s in Nabi Crismatt and Tim Hill to get it through the sixth inning.

Starling Marte was hit by a pitch, stole second, and scored on an Francisco Alvarez single to make it 6-4.

Jose Castillo got the Padres through the seventh with the score still 6-4, but with the lefty Adrian Morejon on the Hill, Tommy Pham gets a pinch hit single on a "12" that would have been an out if Daniel Vogelbach had stayed in the game because his 14/88 on the bottom of his card means an opposing lefty pitcher turns a hit on a 11-14 into a strikeout. In fact, Pham platoons with Vogelbach because the 14 is changed from a double to a strikeout.  The 88 on the right means against a righty Vogelbach turns and out into a single with runners advance two bases.

That forced the best remaining pitcher, Drew Pomeranz, in the game in the 8th to get the last out - dangerous with only an RR3 endurance. he gave up a single in the 8th and when the inning ended his RR was only a "1." That went away in the 9th when Jeff McNeil homered against him to force another lesser pitcher in Wilson to get the last two outs for an 8-6 save.

The only reason it was not extra innings was because in the top of the 9th inning Tatis singled and stole against the Mets ace reliever in Edwin Diaz (in the game because in our game it is a "use it or lose it" each two game series so if you don't use your ace in the first game you use him in the second game). Soto then drew a walk, and Machado had a clutch batting double to clear the bases and make it 8-5 prior to McNeil's homer making the final 8-6.

The win makes the Padres 10-8 in our game compared to 12-12 in actual MLB play but still well below this season's expectations.

Reminder Note: To play our own Statis-Pro Baseball games, click and print the batters cards here, then these pitchers' cards and finally the Statis-Pro rules which will have everything you need to play. Also note that we had one error in earlier notes - the adjustments listed at the bottom of some pitcher cards to the batters they face (changing a HR to Out or vice versa) must be used every time they pitch, not just in road games as previously listed. You may notice this season that our blogs are picked up by so when a player is mentioned you can link for their stats by clicking. The reference to our league rule in which we count each game as a 3-game series, which is only a sweep if the winning team led by more than 5 runs after 8 innings, is not necessary to the game - just a fun rule that makes it more likely better teams will win as many games as they would if you could play more games because run differential predicts future results, and teams have a 14% chance of winning by 5 runs and a 14% chance of sweeping a 3-game series.

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