Sunday, April 30, 2023

Statis-Pro within 0.02 Runs Per Game of Actual MLB as Cubs-Mets Wrap Up 2nd Round

Executive Summary: Feeling good about the accuracy of our  formulas for Statis-Pro baseball cards. Through 43 games:

1. Our games average 4.26 runs per game compared to 4.28 for the actual MLB last year.

2. In 43 games, 12 were 5+ run wins, counted as 3 games to 0 sweeps - the exact same 28% of all MLB games that are decided by 5+ and 28% that are 3 games to none sweeps.

3. The only two teams winning at least 10% more games in Statis-Pro than last season are Pittsburgh and Arizona - also the two biggest surprises in the NL this season and leading the NL Central and West.

Click for links to get your own current and all-time Statis-Pro player cards and free game. We track our results in this Google sheet. The best ERAs in our game are at the bottom of the blog.

Full Update and Standings

The Cubs vs Mets will wrap up our 2nd time through the 4-man rotation for each NL team in our Statis-Pro season.  The Cubs will throw Marcus Stroman, a PB 4-7, against the Mets Kodai Senga, the dominant PB 2-7 Japanese strikeout pitcher.

So far the Mets and Cubs are among 8 of 11 Statis-Pro teams tracking their actual MLB 2022 season. A team should play 0.027 percentage below last year's winning percentage because four bottom teams are left out of the league so they miss some easy wins. 

We broke out the SWEEPS (5+ run wins in our game) by team below. Through 20 games we noted that 0 games were sweeps whereas normally 28% of all 3-game series are a sweep just as 28% of the time one of the team wins by at least 5 runs - in other words a team sweeps their opponents 14% of the time and is swept 14%. That all evened out as 12 of the last 23 games were +5 run sweeps to bring the overall season to 12 sweeps in 43 games to bring the average to almost exactly the MLB average 28% for the season.

Also after 20 games we noticed the average runs scored per game was low at 4.1, but it has now risen to 4.26. The actual average for the 2022 MLB season was 4.28.

The two teams running at least 10% ahead of last year's actual season are the Statis-Pro Arizona Diamondbacks (13-11 but were only 0.430 winning percentage last year against top 11 teams) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (11-13 but were only 0.356 in real MLB). Those two are also the two surprise 2023 Divisional leaders this year, so they've both jumped forward both in the MLB and Statis-Pro season 

The Cincinnati Reds are the only team winning more than 10% fewer than they should after being swept back to back to St. Louis in the last two games to fall to 6-18 after having a bad but slightly better 0.356 last season. The chart indicates in our game the Reds are 6-18, but if you read across their line you see they are actually 1-7. Their one win was not by 5+ runs so they only received 2 wins and 1 loss for that, while four of their losses were closer and three were 5+ run sweeps - so all together 6-18.

Team   Wins   Losses  Statis-Pro  Actual 2022 -0.027   Sweep Win by 5+Win 2-1  Loss 1-2   Swept Lost by -5

The Reds lost 100 games last year. They fell deeper into the basement at 6-18 after a double sweep at the hands of the Cardinals.

The Cardinals took batting practice off the Reds, with Nolan Gorman hitting three homers and combining with Tyler O'Neill and Lars Nootbaar for six homers and 11 hits in 25 at bats. The 9-0 and 10-5 wins both counted as sweeps, giving the Cardinals the first double sweep of our season so far, meaning they are credited for 6 wins and 0 losses in the series to improve to 14-10.

Here are the best ERAs after just two starts per pitcher - minimum 8 innings pitched.

Rnk  Row Labels                  Team   IP        ER  ERA   Score  Allow  Tm Win  Tm Loss
1Mark Leiter JRChi12.300.004042
2Ranger SuarezPhi1200.009642
3Kyle WrightAtl1000.0014051
4Spencer StriderAtl1410.646633
5Zac GallenAri1410.647533
6Jordan MontgomeryStL12.310.736233
7Roansy ContrerasPit1210.7513251
8Clayton KershawLAD13.721.314242
9Aaron NolaPhi1321.384633
10Justin VerlanderNYM12.721.427342
11Max FriedAtl12.721.4211442
12Corbin BurnesMil13.332.031724
13Blake SnellSD1232.2510442
14Julio UriasLAD1232.25141042
15Freddy PeraltaMil1032.70141133
16Yu DarvishSD1032.708933
17Miles MikolasStL13.342.7113751
18Nick LodoloCin1342.778833
19Brandon WoodruffMil1353.4610542
20Justin SteeleChC12.353.6641015

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