Wednesday, April 26, 2023

28 Statis-Pro Cards Upgrades on Steals to A, AA or Rickey Henderson level AAA

 The increase in stolen bases this season due to the bases being larger and closer together has been taken advantage of by certain teams in particular - the Pirates, Cubs and Mets to name a few. Overall, 82% stolen base attempts have been successful compared to only 65% last year.

In a previous post, we updated the Stolen Base charts to get those percentages correct, with odd numbers on Stolen Base Attempts never resulted in a Caught Stealing, only in the runner not getting a break on the chart. However, we also just upgraded some cards who are stealing a lot more bases in the early season. To start the season, there were only two AA stolen base ratings, and neither of them had played this season, and there were zero AAA ratings - a rating reserved in Statis-Pro history for Rickey Henderson and a few other elites. 

On the other end of the extreme, there are still SP: E players who cannot steal, such as Daniel Vogelbach, who dreams of his first steal in this hilarious commercial.

However, we upgraded any player in the game who hit these thresholds so far this season:

SP: AAA (5 players now in the game) requires at least 8 steals so far AND at least one stolen base for every 3 singles or walks (33% on the chart below). Rickey Henderson did it 12 times including when he was 23 (130 steals and 221 singles or walks for 59%). Despite his bases being the old distance, he was successful 82% of the time and had a ratio of 33% for a SP: AAA at the ages of 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 29, 30,  31, 34, 38.

SP: AA (10 players now in the game) requires at least 6 steals so far AND at least one stolen base for every 4 singles or walks (25% on the chart below). Rickey hit this mark for a SP: AA at the age of 20, 28, 32, 33, 38, 39, 41 - yes at 41 years old he would have been one of the 15 best ranked base stealers in this game even without the bases being closer together and bigger.

SP: A (13 players upgraded to A, but others in the game were already SP: A) requires at least 4 steals so far AND at least one stolen base for every 7 singles or walks (14% on the chart below).

Other players kept their rating of SP: B, SP: C or SP: D, or if they are projected to to not steal a single base, then SP:E - meaning they are not allowed to steal in a game. While not listed on the chart, Vogelbach's career stats are:

SP: E (Daniel Vogelbach and several others). Vogelbach's career stats include 257 walks, 174 singles and 0 stolen bases for 0% if we included him on the chart below.

The chart of the 40 players who hit these marks are below in order. We list Tim Locastro and Tyler Wade first without a percentage, because they are pinch running to get steals with few at bats so the ratio doesn't matter. The best ratio is the 23 year old Rickey Henderson at 59%, with Jose Azocar the highest this year with 56% but he is only a SP: A because it is only 5 steals. The highest this year who qualifies is the Pirates Ji Hwan Bae of the Pirates, with 10 steals against only 19 total singles + walks.

We actually did not have cards in the game for Bae or Locastro because we did not expect them to have enough plate appearances, so we have added their cards to the game while for other players we just upgraded their SP rating as indicated on the table below with "SB orig" showing their card rating and then what it was changed to with "Now."

rnk Rickey Henderson or   Team  SB orig  Now     SB   1b or W   Ratio
 Tim LocastroNYMnewA40PR
 Tyler WadeOAKAA43PR
 23 year old RickeyOAK  13022159%
1Jose AzocarSDCA5956%
2Ji Hwan BaePITnewAAA101953%
 24 year old RickeyOAK  10821251%
3Jorge MateoBALAAAA81650%
 27 year old RickeyNYY  8718547%
4Tim AndersonCWSAA51145%
5Corbin CarrollAZAAAA102245%
 29 year old RickeyNYY  9321344%
6Esteury RuizOAKAAAA82138%
 38 year old RickeyANA  164238%
 30 year old RickeyOAK  5213638%
 21 year old RickeyOAK  10026138%
7Jazz ChisholmMIAAAA71937%
 26 year old RickeyNYY  8021437%
 25 year old RickeyOAK  6618635%
 34 year old RickeyTOR  226235%
 31 year old RickeyOAK  6519234%
8Starling MarteNYMAAA72133%
9Ronald AcunaATLAAAA133933%
10Jeremy PenaHOUBAA61833%
11Chas McCormickHOUCA41233%
 22 year old RickeyOAK  5616833%
12Cedric MullinsBALAAA103132%
 39 year old RickeyOAK  6621531%
 32 year old RickeyOAK  5818831%
13Nico HoernerCHCBAA103330%
14Josh LoweTBAA41429%
 20 year old RickeyOAK  3311329%
15Anthony VolpeNYYAAA82928%
 28 year old RickeyNYY  4114728%
 33 year old RickeyOAK  4817128%
16Sam HilliardATLBA41527%
17Oswaldo CabreraNYYCA41527%
18Andres GimenezCLEAAA62227%
19Victor RoblesWSHAAA62326%
20Myles StrawCLEAAA72726%
 41 year old RickeySEA  3112126%
 38 year old RickeyTOT  4517526%
21Thairo EstradaSFBAA62425%
22J.T. RealmutoPHIAA41625%
23Conner CapelOAKCA41625%
24Amed RosarioCLEBA52025%
 34 year old RickeyTOT  5321425%
25Wander FrancoTBBA52124%
26Julio RodriguezSEAAA52124%
27Bobby WittKCAA52223%
28Travis JankowskiTEXAA41822%
29Jon BertiMIAAA41822%
 38 year old RickeySDP  2913322%
 41 year old RickeyTOT  3616622%
 40 year old RickeyNYM  3717821%
 36 year old RickeyOAK  3215321%
 34 year old RickeyOAK  3115220%
30Steven KwanCLECA73719%
31Whit MerrifieldTORAA42218%
32Daulton VarshoTORBA42218%
33Christian YelichMILBA52818%
 42 year old RickeySDP  2513918%
 37 year old RickeySDP  3720918%
34Cody BellingerCHCBA42317%
 35 year old RickeyOAK  2213017%
35Gleyber TorresNYYCA53116%
36George SpringerTORBA42516%
37Jose RamirezCLEAA42715%
38Trea TurnerPHIAA42914%
39Kyle TuckerHOUAA53614%
40Ian HappCHCCA42914%

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