Wednesday, April 26, 2023

Grand Slam Taken Away, Then Added with New Adjustment - Old 1978 Charts

As you can see from the photo, we can fit the game in a small space.

UNBELIEVABLE. The new adjustment we made for 2023 results in all pitchers from hitters parks (like the Pirates) changing the highest homer on an opponents card to a SacFly all runners advance. Likewise those who pitch in a pitchers park (like the Padres) turn the lowest out on the opposing batter to a home run. The adjustment has only changed a couple of results all season until tonight when something happened that will not happen again if we play Statis-Pro for another 50 years.

In the first game of the home-and-home in Pittsburgh, the Padres Xander Bogaerts came up with bases loaded and drew a 33 - since his home run range is 28-33 that became a 1-run sac fly scoring only Fernando Tatis Jr. From 3rd base to make it 3-0 instead.of 6-0. The in the second game in San Diego, the toughest pitchers' park in the league, the Pirates Bryan Reynolds came up against Yu Darvish in the same situation, based loaded in the top of the 3rd. Darvish left it on his card, and a "57" was drawn and to my disbelief I looked and saw Reynolds' out range is 57-88 so as the lowest number in his range it became a grand slam homer. WOW.

Game 2 - The Pirates were outscored 6-23 in their first three games - their Statis-Pro cards looking more like the preseason predictions than their actual stunning strong start this season. However, in their 4th game and 2nd game of this series Reynolds' grandslam was the offensive key to a 7-0 win for a sweep. On defense, Roansy Contreras 6 scoreless innings was key against a Padres team that has stunned everyone by not hitting in real MLB and the same in Statis-Pro with a 12-12 record. 

However, the biggest key to this last game was Ke'Bryan Hayes, the Pirates 3rd baseman, whose CD-5 (highest Clutch Defense rating) made two diving catches to turn extra base hits into double plays that erased players on 2nd base in the third and 3rd base in the 6th for the win. If you click on Hayes link to Baseball Reference above, you will see Hayes calculates as the best defensive player last season with 3.0 defensive wins last season, and he is back on that pace this year at 0.7 already. He was also one of three finalist for the NL Gold Glove 3rd baseman, though voters gave it to St. Louis' Nolan Arenado for the 10th straight season. All that points to a Clutch Defense 5 (CD-5) in the game.

Back to Game 1 - Padres 10, Pirates 3 but no SWEEP

Without the adjustment the Padres would have had an extra out with a chance to extend the lead. Instead, the Pirates Bryan Reynolds homered in the bottom of the third, then in the 4th Andrew McCutchen and Connor Joe double to start a rally that left the game tied 3-3 all the way through 8 innings.

The Padres exploded for a 7-run 9th to win the 1st game of the series in Pittsburgh 10-3, but that only counts as winning 2.of 3 games because a team only gets credit for a sweep if they led by 7 runs after 8 innings. The Padres improve to 12-9, percentage points ahead of a few teams for 3rd place - and behind only the Dodgers and Braves, heading into the second game against the Pirates back in San Diego.

David Bednar, the Pirates one dominant card in the game who has also allowed only 1 run in 11 innings to record 8 saves in the real season, did get the loss. However, he had to come in the 8th to get the Pirates out of a prevent any chance.of a 5-run lead after 8 for the Padres. 

Reminder Note: To play our own Statis-Pro Baseball games, click and print the batters cards here, then these pitchers' cards and finally the Statis-Pro rules which will have everything you need to play. Also note that we had one error in earlier notes - the adjustments listed at the bottom of some pitcher cards to the batters they face (changing a HR to Out or vice versa) must be used every time they pitch, not just in road games as previously listed. You may notice this season that our blogs are picked up by so when a player is mentioned you can link for their stats by clicking. The reference to our league rule in which we count each game as a 3-game series, which is only a sweep if the winning team led by more than 5 runs after 8 innings, is not necessary to the game - just a fun rule that makes it more likely better teams will win as many games as they would if you could play more games because run differential predicts future results, and teams have a 14% chance of winning by 5 runs and a 14% chance of sweeping a 3-game series.

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