Monday, April 17, 2023

Statis-Pro Chart of % Relievers Control the Action from best (NYM, MKE, SD) to worst (AZ,ChC)

As we set up the next Statis-Pro Series, Padres vs. Diamondbacks, one thing that jumped out to us in looking at the cards is that Arizona has one of the worst two bullpens of our 10 NL teams, while San Diego has one of the Elite 3 bullpens.

The single items Statis-Pro fans like about the game over other great Board games is that the action starts on the pitcher card, with a die roll of 2-12 or a Fast Action Card number in that range. The rolls are the proportion of the various combinations of dice, so the "2" only comes up one of 36 times (both die being a "1," up to the most common result of "7" which can come on 6 of 36 combinations.

Therefore the best PB on a pitchers card of PB: 2-9 controls the action (meaning no worse than a single allowed) 83% of the time, down to the average PB: 4-7 cards that control 50% of the time, and if you really run out of pitchers, a PB: 2-4 is the lowest, only closing 17% of the time.

When you do the match of the regularly used relievers, the Mets, Brewers and Padres stand apart controlling the action 60% plus throughout the whole game, and then 76% to 79% of the time during the 7th to 9th inning in games in which they start with a fresh bullpen. Here are the counts and how we rank our bullpens in the game:

Rnk      Elite Bull Pens                          Relief     7th-9th
1New York Mets - extra HR66%79%
3San Diego - xtra HR61%76%
RnkVery GoodRelief7th-9th
6St. Louis - xtra HR54%71%
7Los Angeles - xtra HR55%67%
8Cincinnati - 2 fewer HR40%45%
10Chicago Cubs45%55%

Note one other factor we weighted for is that while the Reds pitchers leave it on opponents' cards the most, their cards are hurt by playing in an exceptional hitters park, so they do also take the top two Home Runs off opposing batters' cards and turn them to outs in our game, which propels them past Arizona and the Cubs in our rankings even though there percentage is a little lower.

Meanwhile four of the teams in our game benefit from a pitchers' park, so the Dodgers, Cardinals, Padres and Mets all have the lowest Out on an opposing batter's card turn to a home run. The same is true of hitters for these teams.

To make the game easier to play this year, we inserted a line on the suggested role of each pitcher. Normally the "ace" should pitch the 9th inning if ahead in a close game, and the "set-up" pitch the 8th. Then the No. 3 best pitchers should pitch the 7th inning, the No. 4 pitcher the 6th inning etc. Obviously you hope not to need a reliever in the 1st inning, but we list out and keep in mind in the second game of our 2-game series anyone who pitched the first game is out, so worse pitchers need to move up a spot.

Normally we recommend each reliever just go one inning, assuming they have the typical "Max 2 IP" on their card, as that number is always 1 inning higher than the pitcher would normally pitch.

The following lists the PB of each pitcher for each team using that order. However, the places where you see "Max 3" means that the teams pitcher who pitched the previous inning on the chart has a Max 3 and thus would normally pitch 2 innings.
Reliever inning1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Suggest on cardNo.9No.8No.7No.6No.5No.4No.3Set-upAce
San Diego - xtra HR4-74-74-72-72-72-72-82-82-9
Los Angeles - xtra HR2-52-64-74-72-72-72-72-82-8
Cincinnati - 2 fewer HR2-42-62-62-62-62-62-62-64-7
St. Louis - xtra HR2-6max32-64-74-74-72-72-82-9
New York Mets - extra HR4-72-72-72-72-72-8max32-92-9
Chicago Cubs2-5max32-62-62-64-74-72-72-7

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