Value Add Colorado Biggest Cinderella Since Actual 2022 St. Peter's

The most stunning Cinderella team in our Value Add Basketball Game pulled off another shocking win, advancing to the Elite 8. Their run is as unexpected as the 2022 NCAA tournament, when St. Peter’s became the first team ever to make the Elite 8 despite not being among the top 100 teams in the country.

While Colorado had a strong team led by star point guard McKinley Wright, whom we ranked as the top player in the country, their all-time ranking in our game was only 182nd. Colorado’s late-season victories against top-10 teams UCLA and USC were impressive, but if future NBA players Jabari Walker and Tristan da Silva had not still been freshmen at the time, this Colorado team—ranked 8th in the country by KenPom—might have been even more formidable.

In their matchup against the undefeated Rutgers 1976 team, which had made it all the way to the Final Four in the actual season, Colorado faced a challenge. Despite Rutgers’ remarkable record, their only regular-season win over a ranked opponent was against Princeton, which the SRS Ratings (before KenPom existed) ranked as just the 50th-best team in the nation in 1976. Meanwhile, Rutgers was ranked 12th. By comparison, Colorado was ranked 8th in the country in 2021 according to Pomeroy, suggesting that this Colorado squad was actually slightly better than the 1976 Rutgers team, despite the latter’s deeper run to the Final Four.

In our simulation, Colorado pulled off a fifth consecutive narrow upset, with McKinley Wright hitting a clutch shot to seal the game 77-75. All five of their victories have been incredibly close, with an average score of 81-77.

As the scoresheet shows, Rutgers’ superstar Phil Sellers had an outstanding performance, posting 26 points and 12 rebounds. However, mistakes ultimately cost the Scarlet Knights the game. Rutgers committed 17 turnovers to Colorado’s 12 and struggled at the free-throw line, hitting only 7 of 12 attempts. In contrast, Colorado was perfect, sinking all 18 of their free throws.

Had the turnover and free-throw shooting been more even, Rutgers would have won by 10 points instead of losing by 2.

Despite those errors, Rutgers dominated the boards, with James Bailey grabbing 10 rebounds to help his team secure a 44-34 rebounding advantage. After five straight narrow upsets, Colorado will face another unlikely contender in the 2022 national champions, Kansas, which likewise pulled an upset to set up an Elite 8 game between teams not expected to be there.